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ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Richard H. Jones (Deputy Executive Director, International Energy Agency) - Future Scenarios
 

ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Richard H. Jones (Deputy Executive Director, International Energy Agency) - Future Scenarios

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    ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Richard H. Jones (Deputy Executive Director, International Energy Agency) - Future Scenarios ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Richard H. Jones (Deputy Executive Director, International Energy Agency) - Future Scenarios Presentation Transcript

    • © OECD/IEA 2012 World Energy Outlook 2012 Ambassador Richard H. Jones Deputy Executive Director International Student Energy Summit Trondheim, 13 June 2013
    • © OECD/IEA 2012 The context  Foundations of global energy system shifting  Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries  Retreat from nuclear in some others  Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency  All-time high oil prices acting as brake on global economy  Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices 5-times US levels) and Asia (8-times)  Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persist  Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011, led by MENA  CO2 emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strain  Despite new international efforts, 1.3 billion people still lack electricity
    • © OECD/IEA 2012 Emerging economies steer energy markets Share of global energy demand Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035, underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1975 2010 2035 Middle East India China OECD Non-OECDRest of non-OECD 6 030 Mtoe 12 380 Mtoe 16 730 Mtoe
    • © OECD/IEA 2012 A United States oil & gas transformation US oil and gas production The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications well beyond the United States Unconventional gas Conventional gas Unconventional oil Conventional oil mboe/d 5 10 15 20 25 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
    • © OECD/IEA 2012 Natural gas: towards a globalised market Major global gas trade flows, 2010 Rising supplies of unconventional gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows, putting pressure on conventional gas suppliers & oil-linked pricing mechanisms Major global gas trade flows, 2035
    • © OECD/IEA 2012 Different trends in oil & gas import dependency While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries, Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oil imports Gas Imports United States China India European Union Japan 2010 2035 20%Gas Exports the United States swims against the tide
    • © OECD/IEA 2012 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 TWh 2 000 A power shift to emerging economies The need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in worldwide demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity Change in power generation, 2010-2035 -1 000 0 1 000 Japan European Union United States China TWh Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables India
    • © OECD/IEA 2012 The multiple benefits of renewables come at a cost Renewable subsidies were $88 billion in 2011; over half the $4.8 trillion required to 2035 has been committed to existing projects or is needed to meet 2020 targets Global renewable energy subsidies $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Billion 2012-2035 $960 billion $2 600 billion $1 200 billion Existing commitments Electricity: 2011-2035 Biofuels:
    • © OECD/IEA 2012 2010 Energy is becoming thirstier in the face of growing water constraints The  energy  sector’s  water  needs  are  set  to  grow,  making  water  an  increasingly   important criterion for assessing the viability of energy projects 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2010 Coal Nuclear Other Energy Biofuels Fossil fuels Power Global water use Water for energy
    • © OECD/IEA 2012 Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity going unrealised 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Industry Transport Power generation Buildings Unrealised energy efficiency potential Realised energy efficiency potential Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035 Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the New Policies Scenario
    • © OECD/IEA 2012 The Efficient World Scenario: a blueprint for an efficient world Economically viable efficiency measures can halve energy demand growth to 2035; Total primary energy demand 12 000 13 000 14 000 15 000 16 000 17 000 18 000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Mtoe New Policies Scenario Efficient World Scenario Reduction in 2035 Coal 1 350 Mtce Oil 12.7 mb/d Gas 680 bcm Others 250 Mtoe oil demand savings equal the current production of Russia & Norway
    • © OECD/IEA 2012 Energy efficiency brings economic gains In addition to cutting energy expenditures by an average of 20%, improved efficiency brings wider economic gains, particularly for India, China, the United States & Europe Energy expenditure in 2035 compared with 2010 Trillion Efficient World Scenario New Policies Scenario Additional in the New Policies Scenario -$0.3 $0 $0.3 $0.6 $0.9 $1.2 $1.5 China India European Union United States Japan
    • © OECD/IEA 2013 Four measures to keep the 2 °C target alive  National efforts in this decade need to buy time for an international agreement, expected to come into force in 2020  Our 4-for-2 °C Scenario includes four measures: 1. Implement selected energy efficiency policies 2. Limit use of inefficient coal power plants 3. Reduce methane releases from upstream oil & gas 4. Partially remove fossil-fuel subsidies  The four measures meet key criteria:  No  harm  to  countries’  economic  growth  Reliance only on existing technologies and proven policies  Significant national benefits other than climate change mitigation
    • © OECD/IEA 2012 Key messages  Changing outlook for energy production & use, particularly in North America, may redefine global economic & geopolitical balances  Despite positive steps in some countries, global emissions keep rising, with little time left until the climate meeting in Paris 2015  Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy, environmental & economic objectives