Arctic Climate Change
“The Arctic is warming at almost twice
the rate of the rest of the world”
Arctic influences weather and climate elsewhere
Svalbard
IPCC 2007: ”Ice free” AO by the end of century
2012: 3.41 M km2
SWIPA 2011: likely within next 30-40 yrs
Six IPCC AR4 models closer to observations; Sea ice-free summers likely by 2050.
...
“Small” glaciers contribution to sea level
Arctic
Sea level
AR5: Increased estimates
compared to AR4
Will continue for 1000+ yr
Global temp. of 3 °C may
destabilise the ice...
Antarctica’s response to climate change remains uncertain.
However, the ice sheet is more than 10 times larger in volume t...
Ocean temperature and salinity
74 000
+8500
• Fw export through
gateways ’constant’
• Precipitation and river
runoff increasing
• Sea ice melting
• An ex...
Why impurities affect the snow albedo ?
Pure snow:
high albedo
Snow contaminated by
black carbon
(BC)
lower albedo
1991-2000
2056-2065
2090-2099
Takk for oppmerksomheten!
Thank you for your attention!
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
ISES 2013  - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy
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ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy

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What Is Happening, Why Is It Happening and What Can We Do About It?


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that the earth is suffering from man-made climate changes. ISES has invited three experts on climate to share their views on what is really happening, why it is happening, and finally yet importantly, what can we do about it.

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  • Main reason for discrepancy is that the thinning trend is not captured Two main causes: Do not reproduce the increased ocean heat flux (Polyakov et al (2011), Maslowski et al (2007)) Do not reproduce the accelerated ice drift (Rampal et al (2009), Rampal et al (2011)).
  • ISES 2013 - Day 1 - Dr. Jan-Gunnar Winther (Director, Worwegian Polar Institute) - Climate and Clean Energy Policy

    1. 1. Arctic Climate Change
    2. 2. “The Arctic is warming at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world”
    3. 3. Arctic influences weather and climate elsewhere
    4. 4. Svalbard
    5. 5. IPCC 2007: ”Ice free” AO by the end of century 2012: 3.41 M km2
    6. 6. SWIPA 2011: likely within next 30-40 yrs Six IPCC AR4 models closer to observations; Sea ice-free summers likely by 2050. (Wang and Overland, 2009) Maybe before? Do we understand the processes? Are global models good enough on a regional scale? Large annual variability – influence from weather events 2012
    7. 7. “Small” glaciers contribution to sea level Arctic
    8. 8. Sea level AR5: Increased estimates compared to AR4 Will continue for 1000+ yr Global temp. of 3 °C may destabilise the ice sheets
    9. 9. Antarctica’s response to climate change remains uncertain. However, the ice sheet is more than 10 times larger in volume than Greenland
    10. 10. Ocean temperature and salinity
    11. 11. 74 000 +8500 • Fw export through gateways ’constant’ • Precipitation and river runoff increasing • Sea ice melting • An extra amount of 8500 km3 fw accumulated in the Canadian Basin since 2008 • Still accumulating • Will be released with changing wind patterns • If released rapid enough, we could see an unprecedented freshening of the Northern North Atlantic • The first challenge is to capture the release 2500 3650 4000
    12. 12. Why impurities affect the snow albedo ? Pure snow: high albedo Snow contaminated by black carbon (BC) lower albedo
    13. 13. 1991-2000
    14. 14. 2056-2065
    15. 15. 2090-2099
    16. 16. Takk for oppmerksomheten! Thank you for your attention!

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