“ Thus everything in the universe affects everything else because they are all part of the same unbroken whole.”
David Bohm (Wholeness and the Implicate Order, 1980)
Imagery of Systems : ecology of life systems, networks
Systems thinking tends to reside in the natural and physical sciences. Yet it is equally applicable to the context of social sciences and social problems. Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future
Systems Thinking Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future Question : If A causes B, is it possible that B causes A also? If so, what would that mean? (It’s a “system” relationship not a “cause” relationship.) Neighborhood quality Educational investment Linear thinking is the opposite of systems thinking.
fluency ------- the ability to rapidly produce a large number of ideas or solutions to a problem in a short amount of time flexibility ----- the capacity to consider a variety of approaches to a problem simultaneously originality ---- the tendency to produce ideas different from those of most other people elaboration --- the ability to think through the details of an idea and carry it out
If you don't make a conscious effort to visualize who you are and what you want in life, then you empower other people and circumstances to shape you and your life by default.
Developing the Assignment Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future An important objective of the assignment (question or area of interest) should be illuminating the implications of change. The reference period of the assignment (+10, +15, …, +50 years forward) should be inclusive of the decision-making time frame. Gather information about indicators of change from the global environment across disciplines and sources.
Information about Change - DEGEST Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future D emography covers specific population groups, gender, age, ethnicity, family composition, & public health issues. E conomics includes production, consumption, exchange, finance, business, work and careers, and management. G overnment includes collective decision-making, world affairs, politics, laws, and public policy. E nvironment includes nature, resources, ecosystems, species, habitats and waste. S ociety covers language, beliefs, ethics, lifestyles, values, religion, leisure, culture, and education. T echnology includes manipulation of the physical world, materials, machinery, innovations, scientific discoveries, and their impact. S T E E P
Example: Technology Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ? A new device under development in Israel would take some of hassle out of determining if fruit trees or grape vines are getting enough water. The monitor, tapped into a stem, would measure the plant’s electric conductivity, a parameter of water stress. If the stress gets to be too much, the device can send a text message or e-mail to the farmer. And if the plant continues to bake in the sun without water, the device can also turn on the water itself.
Example: Economics Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future India, China, Russia to lead the world as US power to fade by 2025 If current trends persist, by 2025 China will have the world’s second largest economy and will be a leading military power . It also could be the largest importer of natural resources and the biggest polluter . ?
Example: Environment Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ? The number of WORLDS need to meet resource demands.
Examples: Geo-Politics Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future Wars of Scarcity : More than 1 billion people HUNGRY worldwide: FAO 10/14/09 In 2008, 1.4 billion people lived in "closed basins"--regions where existing WATER cannot meet the agricultural, municipal, and environmental needs for all. This number is expected to grow to 1.8 billion by 2025 . Today, experts consider 21 countries, with a combined population of about 600 million, to be either cropland or freshwater scarce . Owing to continuing population growth, 36 countries, with about 1.4 billion people, are projected to fall into this category by 2025 . ?
Applying Futures Tools Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future ↔ Change ↔ Future Timelines : visual representations connecting past to present to future facilitates logical conjecture on what might happen moving forward in time Futures Wheel : an opportunity to stretch implications from 1 st order into 2 nd and 3 rd Incasting : an opportunity to create “kernels” for build stories about the future (scenarios)