Hydropower Development on the Mekong and 3S

University of Canterbury Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering 31 Aug 2011, Stimson Center, Washington DC, USA Dr. Thanapon Piman and Dr. Tom Cochrane Hydropower Dams on the Mekong and “3S” Rivers: A Regional Environmental and Socioeconomic Perspective

Content
Basin-wide overview
MRC Basin Development Plan
Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)-ICEM
Hydropower simulations in the 3S basin
Development in the 3S basin
Mekong mainstream dams vs. 3S dams
Strategic planning and decision making
IWRM-based basin development strategy
Procedures for Notification, Prior Consultation and Agreement (PNPCA) for the Xayaburi mainstream dam

Basin-wide overview

Snapshot of the Mekong basin Rich in water = 6,950 m 3 /person/year Low volume of water stored in reservoirs 13.54 billion m 3 (active volume) = 219 m 3 /person (2007) GDP per capita Rich in biodiversity 17 of 60 million people are poor

1995 Mekong Agreement Mekong River Commission (MRC)’s role in sustainable development of water and related resources
Monitoring - river flow, water quality, sediment, salinity, fisheries;
Knowledge base - building capacity, sharing knowledge and good practice;
Enabling framework - implementation of procedures under the 1995 Agreement, providing advice to government decision-makers;
Basin-wide planning - understanding of cumulative impacts of development options and interactions between sectors.

Assessment of basin-wide development scenarios
Assess cumulative impact of development on environmental, social and economic objectives of the LMB countries
To identify opportunities and risks of current and future developments
To prepare a “Basin Development Strategy”
BL UMD DF 20Y w/o MD 20Y w/o LMD 20Y w/o TMD 20Y w/o CMD 20Y with all MD LTD VHD

Changes in flow and water level
Flow regimes will change significantly in Definite Future Scenario, mainly caused by regulation of hydropower developments in Lancang River
Dry season flow will increase while wet season flow will decrease
All scenarios in 20-Year Plan Scenarios and Long-Term Scenarios add smaller further changes to Definite Future situation
Definite Future (Black) Baseline (Red) Long-Term (Blue) 20-Year Plan (Green) Vientiane

Changes in river bed and bank erosion Chiang Saen Nong Khai Pakse Strungteng Delta
Cause:
Reduction of sediment entering to Mekong mainstream
Alluvial Alluvial Bedrock Bedrock
No major change in bedrock reaches
Sandbars from Nong Kai to Pakse are readily erodible
Some sediment loss may occur immediately downstream of Kratie and changes in Delta will be visible in long term including coastal erosion

Impact on environment hotspots
32 environmental hotspots identified: Ramsar sites, biosphere reserves, protected areas, Important Bird Areas (IBA’s)
Major causes are
Definite future
Change in flow and flood patterns
Foreseeable future and long term
Change in sedimentation, nutrient and water quality
Change in wetland habitats (deep pools, sandbars and rapids) and productivity
Blockage of migration route
Climate change
High impact by proposed developments in the 20-Year Plan Scenario with all 11 LMB mainstream dams

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Reduction of salinity intrusion Baseline-dry year 20Y Plan-dry year Reduction in salinity intrusion mainly caused by increase in dry season flow of the current developments in the Definite Future Scenarios (272,000 hectares)

Impact on capture fisheries yield
Capture fisheries yield is estimated based on habitats: river-floodplain, rain-fed and permanent water include reservoirs
Reduction will mainly happen in river-floodplain habitat due to many factors i.e. barrier, flow changes, habitat loss
Major losses in capture fisheries yield caused by two mainstream dams in Cambodia
The losses are particularly severe in Cambodia and Viet Nam Delta
Thailand Cambodia Viet Nam Delta Lao PDR Viet Nam Highland

Impact on vulnerable resource users
Definite Future : 0.9 million people at some risk of loss of livelihood in near future
20-Year Plan without mainstream dams: + 0.5 million at risk
20-Year Plan with all 11 mainstream dams: + 4.4 million at risk
Cambodia and Viet Nam are most impacted

SEA of the hydropower on the mainstream Mekong
To provide a broader understanding of the risks and opportunities of proposed 11 mainstream projects
To bring together the two decision-making spheres IWRM decision making & Power sector

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Capture fish production

Livelihoods
2.1 million people, ~10% of people living & working within 5 km of the river, are expected to be most at risk:
Direct impacts: 106,942 people
Indirect impacts: 2 million people
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Strategic options of to LMB countries
1. No mainstream dams
2. Deferred decision on all mainstream dams for a set period
3. Gradual development of mainstream power
4. Market driven development of the proposed mainstream projects
The SEA team main recommendation:
Decisions on mainstream dams should be deferred for a period of ten years (strategic option 2) with reviews every three years to ensure that essential deferment‐period activities are being conducted effectively.

Hydropower simulations in the 3S basin

Objectives
To assess how existing and future hydropower development and operation in the 3S rivers can change flow regimes at critical points in the basin
To compare changes in flows and water levels in the Mekong induced by development in the 3S basin
current development in the Mekong (including China dams)
proposed mainstream dams in the Lower Mekong Basin
To provide strategic options for dam development and operations in the 3S basin

Study area: 3S basin
A transboundary river basin in Lao PDR, Cambodia and Viet Nam
Hydropower development is accelerating
Significant flow contribution to the Mekong river ( 17-20%)
Rich biodiversity and ecosystem services: fish, habitats, and migration routes

Se San, Sre Pok, and Sre Kong

Simulated scenarios
Levels of hydropower development
Baseline scenario (BL)
No dams
Definite future scenario (DF)
Existing and under construction dams
Development in main tributaries scenario (DMT)
DF plus proposed dams in main tributaries
Development in main and sub tributaries scenario (DMST )
DMT plus proposed dams in sub tributaries or All dams

Simulated scenarios DF DMT DMST

Simulated scenarios

Hydrologic modelling
SWAT model (ARCSWAT and SWAT 2005)
Set up and calibration by MRC (2010)
Simulation period 1986-2006
Divided into 118 subbasins

Reservoir operation modelling
Hec Ressim model (Version 3.0)
Set up by UC (2011)
Simulation period 1986-2006
41 dams are modelled

Seasonal flow changes

Impact of operation rules

Mekong mainstream dams Manwan 1995 Dochushan 2003 Xiaowan 2010 Jinghong 2007

Installed capacity vs Active storage

Changes in Mekong mainstream flows

Changes in Mekong mainstream WL

Potential downstream impacts Wetland and habitats Stung Treng reach

Potential downstream impacts
Impact of 3S development flood levels of the Tonle Sap and the Mekong Delta

Collaborations
MRC – Detailed hydrological modelling of 3S dams, Chinese dams, and other LMB dams
NHI – Sediment dynamics and re-operation of dams
WWF – Impacts to habitat and river geomorphology between Stung Treng and Kratie

Conclusions
Water level changes in the Mekong River:
3S projects Chinese dams 11 mainstream LMB dams
The way dam operations are managed can have a significant effect on flow changes and electricity production
Operation under energy focused to maximize power production results in the largest modification of downstream flow patterns.

Final comments and Recommendations
Strategic selection of dams and a coordinated management of dams operated under a wider set of rules among projects needed to minimize changes to natural flow pulses.
Are the 7 large dams in Cambodia and Laos economically feasible given their large potential impact?
Assess changes in sediment flows, dam trapping, water quality, ecosystems, and social and economic impacts:
overall costs and benefits
provide more comprehensive strategic options for dam development
Simulations at hourly intervals to investigate fluctuations in intra-daily flows and durations
Climate change

Strategic planning and decision making

Planning cycle

IWRM-based basin development strategy
The IWRM-based Basin Development Strategy was approved by the MRC Council during its 17th Meeting on 26 January 2011
The strategy sets out how the LMB countries will share, utilize, manage and conserve the Mekong water and related resources to achieve the goals of the 1995 Mekong Agreement
It also provides initial directions for sustainable basin development and management that are subject to review and updating every 5 years

Strategic Priorities for basin development
Address opportunities and risks of current developments (to 2015)
Expand and intensify irrigated agriculture for food security
Enhance environmental and social sustainability of hydropower development
Acquire essential knowledge to address uncertainty and minimize risks of the identified development opportunities
Identify options for sharing development benefits and risks
Prepare Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and initiate its implementation
7. Integrate basin planning considerations into national planning systems

Strategic Priorities for basin management
Define basin objectives and management strategies for water-related sectors, including fisheries and navigation
Strengthen national-level water resources management processes, including water resources monitoring, licensing and data and information management
Strengthen basin-level water resources and related management processes, including the implementation of MRC procedures, state of basin monitoring and reporting, and project cycle monitoring
Develop basin-wide environmental and social objectives and baseline indicators
5. Implement capacity building programme for transboundary water resources management

Implementation of the Strategy
The Strategy defines a clear Roadmap setting out priority actions, timeframe and outcomes of Strategy implementation
An early action in the Roadmap is the preparation in 2011 of a Basin Action Plan comprising a Regional Action Plan and four complementary and consistent National Indicative Plans
National Indicative Plans will comprise those additional actions needed to supplement current national plans in order to implement the Strategy
These actions will vary, reflecting individual country focus areas and priorities

Procedures for Notification, Prior Consultation and Agreement (PNPCA) for the Xayaburi mainstream dam
PNPCA process is a requirement of the 1995 Mekong Agreement for countries to jointly review any development project proposed for the mainstream with an aim to reach a consensus on whether or not it should proceed, and if so, under what conditions.
Prior consultation is an inter-governmental process. Several technical groups have been established to support Member Countries with the Xayaburi prior consultation.
A Joint Committee Working Group
A PNPCA Task Group is undertaking a technical review
Input on specific issues is provided by external specialists including Expert Groups on Fisheries and Sediments

Road Map guides the MRC Member Countries during the prior consultation process. Xayaburi’s Prior Consultation Road Map

Xayaburi Project

Road Map guides the MRC Member Countries during the prior consultation process. Final decision making
19 APRIL 2011 , Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam agreed that a decision on the prior consultation process for the proposed Xayaburi hydropower project be tabled for consideration at the ministerial level , as they could not come to a common conclusion on how to proceed with the project
May 13, 2011, Statement on Lao Government Decision to Delay Xayaburi Dam . The announcement was the result of a meeting between the Prime Ministers of Laos and Vietnam during last weekend’s 18 th ASEAN Summit. Laos stated that it has temporarily suspended the project in order for an expert review to be completed

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Hydropower Development on the Mekong and 3S

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