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Abenomics akio fujii
Abenomics akio fujii
Abenomics akio fujii
Abenomics akio fujii
Abenomics akio fujii
Abenomics akio fujii
Abenomics akio fujii
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Abenomics akio fujii

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  • 1. Whither Abenomics Akio Fujii January 30th, 2013
  • 2. Abenomics• It’ the Economy Stupid!! until upper house election・ What is Abenomics? 1. Aggressive Monetary Easing 2. Fiscal Stimulus 3. Growth Strategy• Abenomics Bubble? Nikkei Index, Yen Biggest recovery since 2005 Election
  • 3. Global Response• “Japan Step Out” Paul Krugman• “Right on Monetary Side, but…” Adam Posen• “The Wrong Growth Strategy for Japan” Martin Feldstein・Big3 are nervous・German are nervous Melkel・“We are still in a position where the yen is ahandicap,“ Ghosn
  • 4. Upside Risk• Business and Consumer already feel better.• Virtuous cycle of reflation Asset prices → Sentiment → Real demand• Strong effect in F 2013 Fiscal Monetary Stimulus and rushing demandbefore the consumption tax hike• Global recovery US and China• Japan-China, Japan-Korea, cooling tension• Strong support for LDB in General Election → No PM Change since 2005
  • 5. Downside Risk• Burst of Abenomics Bubble Disappointment on BOJ. Fiscal Concern.・Yen bounce back・Another political turmoil・Global slowdown(or recession?)・More tension on Japan-China, Japan-Korea・No structural reform
  • 6. Single Biggest Threat“ the single, biggest threat to our nationalsecurity is our debt.” Mike Mullen, chairman ofthe Joint Chiefs of Staff→ The single, biggest threat to our nationalsecurity is our deflation?
  • 7. Thank You !!

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