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A brief introduction to Scenario Planning, a strategic planning process invented by the U.S. military, during the days of the cold war, and now widely used by organizations of all kinds, which ...

A brief introduction to Scenario Planning, a strategic planning process invented by the U.S. military, during the days of the cold war, and now widely used by organizations of all kinds, which produces realistic scenarios of potential futures, against which different strategies can be vetted.

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    Scenario Planning (an Introduction) Scenario Planning (an Introduction) Document Transcript

    • 
 
Scenario
Planning

Steven
M.
Puma
Presidio
School
of
Management
Culture,
Values
and
Ethics
(SUS6105)
Instructor:
Donna
Montgomery,
Ph.
D.
 SCENARIO
PLANNING
 i
 

    • 

Table
of
Contents
Introduction.................................................................................................................1
History
of
Scenario
Planning ........................................................................................2
Orientation.................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Exploration ................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Scenario
Creation....................................................................................................................................................... 4
Connection.................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Conclusion ...................................................................................................................8
Works
Cited .................................................................................................................9
ii
 SCENARIO
PLANNING


    • 
Introduction
Scenario
planning
is
a
group‐based
decision
making
tool,
which
has
its
roots
in
post‐
WWII
military
planning
and
the
petroleum
industry
of
the
1970s.
Unlike
its
cousins,
forecasting
 and
 prediction,
 scenario
 planning
 does
 not
 attempt
 to
 project
 future
outcomes
 based
 on
 data
 from
 the
 past.
 
 These
 methods
 can
 often
 lead
 to
 “tunnel
vision”,
 due
 to
 their
 preference
 of
 one
 outcome
 over
 another.
 Instead,
 scenario
planning
allows
for
more
robust
decisions
by
allowing
multiple
possible
futures.
Scenario
 planning,
 as
 described
 by
 Peter
 Schwartz,
 Chairman
 of
 Global
 Business
Network
(GBN),
“…is
a
tool
for
better
decision
making…Business
and
governments
employ
this
tool
because
it
helps
them
to
make
better
strategic
decisions.”

(Ogilvy)
Presidio
School
of
Management
has
chosen
to
teach
scenario
planning
as
part
of
its
Strategic
 Management
 curriculum,
 because
 of
 its
 unique
 ability
 to
 deal
 with
uncertainty
 in
 planning
 the
 future.
 This
 is
 a
 good
 thing,
 because
 Presidio
 students
and
 faculty
 face
 much
 uncertainty
 in
 meeting
 the
 many
 challenges
 of
 bringing
sustainability
to
the
business
world.
This
paper
will
serve
as
an
introduction
to
scenario
planning
as
it
is
currently
being
taught
 by
 Jay
 Ogilvy,
 Ph.D.,
 Presidio
 faculty
 member
 and
 co‐founder
 of
 Global
Business
Network.
We
will
briefly
explore
the
history
of
Scenario
Planning,
from
its
routs
in
military
planning
to
the
current
day.
This
will
be
followed
by
a
step‐by‐step
walkthrough
 of
 the
 scenario
 planning
 process.
 We
 will
 conclude
 with
 a
 short
 look
into
 how
 scenario
 planning
 can
 be
 useful
 in
 the
 cultural
 change
 management
process.
 SCENARIO
PLANNING
 1


    • 
History
of
Scenario
Planning
Scenario
 planning
 arose
 out
 of
 a
 need
 to
 plan
 for
 futures
 filled
 with
 much
uncertainty.
This
uncertainty
is
particularly
magnified
in
military
operations,
which
is
 why
 scenario‐type
 planning
 can
 be
 traced
 back
 to
 19‐century
 military
 planners.
Military
operations,
by
their
very
nature,
are
fraught
with
all
kinds
of
uncertainties.
Your
enemy
is
constantly
trying
to
deceive
you
and
hide
his
movements
from
you.
Factors
 beyond
 your
 control,
 such
 as
 weather,
 frequently
 change.
 The
 combined
actions
 of
 thousands
 upon
 thousands
 of
 men,
 over
 vast
 distances,
 often
 lead
 to
unforeseen
 consequences.
 For
 these
 reasons,
 military
 planners
 often
 take
 the
approach
 of
 envisioning
 multiple
 different
 stories
 of
 what
 might
 happen
 in
 the
future,
 known
 as
 scenarios,
 and
preparing
a
 plan
for
what
 to
do
 if
those
 scenarios
come
to
pass.
The
well‐known
activity
of
wargames
is
one
way
of
practicing,
in
real
time,
what
an
army
will
do
if
faced
with
a
particular
scenario.
In
 the
 post
 World
 War
 II
 U.S.,
 the
 need
 for
 continuing
 military
 research,
development
and
planning
was
recognized:

“World
War
II
had
revealed
the
importance
of
technology
research
and
development
for
 success
 on
 the
 battlefield...There
 were
 discussions
 among
 people
 in
 the
 War
Department,
the
Office
of
Scientific
Research
and
Development,
and
industry
who
saw
a
 need
 for
 a
 private
 organization
 to
 connect
 military
 planning
 with
 research
 and
development
decisions.”

(RAND
Corporation)

As
 a
 result,
 The
 RAND
 Corporation
 was
 formed
 in
 1948.
 Among
 its
 many
 other
achievements,
 this
 not‐for‐profit
 think
 tank
 was
 the
 first
 to
 develop
 scenario
analysis,
a
precursor
to
scenario
planning.
Scenario
analysis
differed
from
scenario
planning
 in
 that
 utilized
 a
 probability‐based
 system,
 where
 a
 different
 probability
would
be
calculated
for
the
possibility
of
each
scenario
taking
place.

RAND
 employee
 Herman
 Kahn
 was
 a
 military
 strategist
 and
 systems
 theorist

(wikipedia.org)
 who
 worked
 on
 Scenario
 Analysis
 and
 was
 the
 person
 responsible
for
using
the
word
“scenario”
to
describe
the
future
stories
which
were
developed.
Mr.
Kahn,
most
famous
for
working
on
nuclear
war
strategies,
wanted
to
emphasize
the
fact
that
these
stories
were
not
predictions
of
the
future,
but
rather
“stories
to
explore”,
 and
 that
 the
 word
 “scenario”
 was
 a
 reference
 to
 Hollywood
 futuristic
movies.
 
 Khan
 later
 formed
 his
 own
 company,
 The
 Hudson
 Institute,
 where
 he
continued
to
develop
scenario
planning.
(Van
Der
Heijden)
In
 the
 1970s,
 scenario
 planning
 was
 further
 developed
 and
 brought
 into
 the
business
world
by
the
global
petroleum
company
Royal
Dutch
Shell,
where

“interest
in
scenarios
at
a
more
conceptual
level
arose
with
the
increasing
failures
of
planning
based
on
forecasts
in
the
mid‐1960s.
Scenarios
were
initially
introduced
as
a
way
to
plan
without
having
to
predict
things
that
everyone
knew
were
unpredictable.
Through
Pierre
Wack,
who
introduced
the
scenarios
at
Shell,
the
early
attempts
were
based
on
the
Kahn
philosophy.”

(Van
Der
Heijden)
2
 SCENARIO
PLANNING


    • 
After
 World
 War
 II
 and
 continuing
 through
 the
 early
 1960s,
 the
 price
 of
 oil
 was
considered
to
be
stable,
and
the
conventional
thinking
in
the
industry
was
that
there
was
 no
 reason
 for
 this
 to
 change.
 Leading
 the
 team
 at
 Shell,
 Pierre
 Wack
 did
 in‐depth
research
on
what
factors
would
affect
the
price
of
oil
in
the
future.
As
the
United
States
became
more
and
more
dependent
on
foreign‐imported
oil,
it
seemed
likely
to
Pierre
that
Arab
oil
producers,
could,
and
would,
increase
the
price
of
oil.

“The
only
uncertainty
was
when.
Once
could
not
know
for
sure,
but
it
seemed
likely
 to
 happen
 before
 1975,
 when
 old
 oil
 price
 agreements
 were
 due
 to
 be
negotiated.”
 
 (Schwartz)
 Pierre
 prepared
 two
 scenarios,
 one
 with
 oil
 prices
continuing
along
the
same
historical
trend,
and
one
recounting
an
OPEC‐led
global
oil
 crisis.
 While
 his
 analysis
 was
 thorough,
 the
 top
 managers
 at
 Shell
 did
 not
 act,
even
though
they
understood
what
this
meant
for
the
company.
It
 was
 at
 this
 point
 that
 Wack
 understood
 what
 needed
 to
 be
 done:
 he
 needed
 to
immerse
his
audience
in
the
future
world
of
his
prediction:
“In
 this
 new
 type
 of
 scenario,
 there
 were
 no
 more
 simple
 tales
 of
 possible
 futures.
Instead,
 Pierre
 described
 the
 full
 ramifications
 of
 possible
 oil
 price
 shocks.
 ‘Prepare!’
he
told
oil
refiners
and
marketers.
‘you
are
about
to
become
a
low‐growth
industry.’
He
warned
the
drillers
and
explorers
who
sought
new
oil
to
get
ready
for
the
possibilty
that
 OPEC
 countries
 would
 take
 over
 their
 oil
 fields.
 Most
 importantly,
 Pierre
 vividly
pointed
 to
 the
 forces
 in
 the
 world,
 and
 what
 sorts
 of
 influences
 those
 forces
 had
 to
have.
He
helped
managers
imaging
the
decisions
they
might
have
to
make
as
a
result.
And
 he
 was
 just
 in
 time.
 In
 October,
 1973,
 after
 the
 ‘Yom
 Kippur’
 war
 in
 the
 Middle
East,
 there
 was
 an
 oil
 price
 shock.
 The
 ‘energy
 crisis’
 burst
 upon
 the
 world.
 Of
 the
major
 oil
 companies,
 only
 Shell
 was
 prepared
 emotionally
 for
 the
 change.
 The
company’s
 executives
 responded
 quickly.
 During
 the
 following
 years,
 Shell’s
 fortunes
rose.
From
one
of
the
weaker
of
the
‘Seven
Sisters’…it
became
one
of
the
two
largest,
and
arguably
the
most
profitable.”
(Schwartz)
In
the
years
to
come,
this
would
become
the
form
of
scenario
planning
widely
used
by
business
and
government:
fully
fleshed‐out
stories
of
the
future,
each
researched
in
 detail
 and
 allowing
 the
 reader
 to
 envision
 themselves
 squarely
 in
 this
 future
world,
much
like
the
Hollywood
movies
from
which
scenario
planning
got
its
name.

(Global
Business
Network)
The
current
methodology
of
scenario
planning
taught
by
Jay
Ogilvy
at
Presidio
is
the
same
 which
 is
 utilized
 by
 Global
 Business
 Network
 (GBN),
 the
 organization
 which
Jay
founded
in
1987
along
with
colleagues
Peter
Schwartz,
former
head
of
planning
at
 Royal
 Dutch
 Shell,
 Stuart
 Brand,
 creator
 of
 the
 Whole
 Earth
 Catalog,
 Lawrence
Wilkinson,
former
president
of
Colossal
Pictures
and
Napier
Collyns,
also
from
Shell.

“Global
 Business
 Network
 was
 created
 in
 1987
 around
 a
 pool
 table
 in
 a
 Berkeley,
California,
 basement
 by
 five
 friends.
 These
 GBN
 cofounders
 envisioned
 a
 worldwide
learning
 community
 of
 organizations
 and
 individuals—a
 network,
 connected
 by
 the
 SCENARIO
PLANNING
 3


    • 
open
 and
 generous
 exchange
 of
 ideas,
 "out‐of‐the‐box"
 scenario
 thinking,
 ruthless
curiosity,
and
exciting
new
information
technologies.”
(Global
Business
Network)
One
of
the
cornerstones
of
GBN’s
success
is
its
expansive
network
of

“remarkable
people”,
whom
it
utilizes
as
resources
for
inspiration,
subject‐matter
expertise,
and
early
indications
of
trends.
These
people
range
from
artists
to
musicians
to
business
leaders
 to
 philosophers.
 It
 is
 access
 to
 these
 people
 that
 allows
 GBN
 the
 ability
 to
create
 scenarios
 that
 are
 both
 grounded
 in
 reality
 and
 that
 portray
 an
 accurate
picture
of
the
future.
How
Scenario
Planning
Works
A
 scenario
 planning
 engagement
 would
 involve
 several
 phases:
 Orientation,
Exploration,
Scenario
Creation
and
Connection.
Training
at
Presidio
focuses
mostly
on
the
Scenario
Creation
phase,
and
will
be
the
bulk
of
what
can
be
outlined
in
this
paper
in
step‐by‐step
detail,
although
the
other
phases
will
be
discussed
as
to
their
implications
 for
 the
 organization
 pursuing
 a
 scenario
 planning
 exercise.
 
 (Global
Business
Network)
 
Orientation

The
 orientation
 phase
 is
 where
 the
 leaders
 of
 the
 scenario
 planning
 effort
 would
meet
with
the
organization
to
determine
the
purpose
and
goals
of
the
exercise,
who
is
to
be
involved
and
what
the
metrics
for
success
will
be.
During
this
phase,
a
focal
issue
that
will
drive
the
scenarios
will
be
determined.
Most
 important
 in
 this
 phase
 will
 be
 choosing
 an
 appropriate
 mix
 of
 people
 to
 be
participants.

For
the
scenarios
to
truly
represent
an
accurate
picture
of
the
issues
facing
 the
 organization,
 the
 scenario
 development
 team
 should
 represent
 a
 cross‐section
of
the
organization,
both
horizontally
and
vertically.
This
will
avoid
the
trap
of
scenarios
converging
on
the
narrow
point‐of‐view
of
one
department
or
silo.

Exploration
The
exploration
phase
is
a
preliminary
information‐gathering
phase.
The
purpose
of
this
phase
is
to
examine
any
external
content
that
is
relevant
to
the
focal
issue.
This
can
be
accomplished
through
external
interviews
and
research.
Scenario
Creation
The
scenario
creation
process
will
go
through
the
following
steps:
 1. Brainstorming
factors
and
forces:
The
first
step
is
a
brainstorming
process
 to
uncover
all
of
the
key
factors
and
environmental
forces
in
relation
to
the
 focal
 issue.
 Usually,
 someone
 will
 be
 selected
 as
 a
 “scribe”,
 who
 will
 write
 down,
on
a
white
board
or
flip
chart,
all
of
the
factors
and
forces
generated
 by
 the
 group.
 It
 is
 important,
 at
 this
 point
 in
 the
 process,
 not
 to
 kill
 off
 creativity
 be
 judging
 and
 evaluating
 ideas
 as
 they
 are
 being
 generated.
 It
 is
4
 SCENARIO
PLANNING


    • 
 best
 simply
 to
 generate
 a
 large
 amount
 of
 good
 thinking,
 no
 matter
 how
 outlandish
it
may
seem.
 2. Ranking
 critical
 uncertainties:
 The
 goal
 of
 this
 step
 is
 to
 identify
 two
 (2)
 “critical
 uncertainties”
 out
 of
 the
 list
 of
 factors
 and
 forces
 facing
 the
 organization.
They
will
form
the
axes
upon
which
the
four
scenarios
will
be
 based.
 These
 critical
 uncertainties
 will
 be
 those
 factors
 or
 forces
 that
 are
 both
most
uncertain
and
most
important.

 It
is
useful,
at
this
point,
to
talk
about
why
we
should
choose
factors
that
are
 both
“uncertain
and
important”.

If
an
item
were
to
be
highly
important,
yet
 highly
certain,
then
it
would
hold
true
in
all
circumstances,
and
thus
is
not
in
 need
 of
 much
 study.
 If
 something
 is
 of
 either
 high
 or
 low
 certainty,
 yet
 of
 little
 importance,
 then
 we
 are
 simply
 wasting
 time
 by
 considering
 it.
 The
 critical
uncertainties,
of
both
high
importance
and
high
uncertainty,
are
those
 factors
 with
 which
 we
 can
 gain
 the
 most
 insight
 and
 value
 by
 considering
 their
implications
through
multiple
scenarios.
 The
process
for
identifying
the
critical
uncertainties
is
as
follows:
 • Each
 team
 member
 is
 allocated
 25
 “votes”.
 These
 can
 come
 in
 the
 form
of
poker
chips,
sticky
dots,
etc.
 • Team
members
will
allocate
their
25
votes
individually,
based
on
their
 evaluation
of
which
factors
are
critical
uncertainties.
 • Individuals
can
only
cast
a
maximum
of
five
votes
per
item.
 • There
is
no
need
to
worry
about
redundancies.
 • After
 counting
 up
 the
 allocation
 of
 votes,
 related
 factors
 and
 forces
 should
be
clustered
under
the
top
scoring
items.
 The
team
should
continue
this
process
until
the
two
factors
are
identified.
It
 is
 important
 to
 note
 that
 in
 the
 presence
 of
 a
 highly
 influential
 individual,
 such
as
a
CEO
or
manager,
hidden
voting
may
be
the
best
course
of
action,
to
 ensure
that
the
voting
is
not
skewed.
 3. Label
the
axes:
Taking
the
critical
uncertainties
chosen
by
the
group,
a
2x2
 matrix
is
formed,
one
uncertainty
on
each
axis.
The
axes
form
a
continuum
of
 uncertainty,
 and
 are
 the
 boundaries
 for
 each
 of
 the
 four
 scenarios.
 As
 an
 example,
 one
 axis
 may
 be
 labeled
 “Rate
 of
 change
 in
 climate”,
 which
 can
 range
 from
 “slow”
 to
 fast”
 and
 the
 other
 may
 be
 labeled
 “Government
 approach
 to
 climate
 change”,
 which
 can
 range
 from
 “do
 nothing”
 to
 “aggressive
 intervention”.
 The
 four
 scenarios
 are
 then
 logically
 arranged
 accordingly.
This
is
shown
in
the
following
graphic:
 SCENARIO
PLANNING
 5


    • 
 
 Important
 in
 the
 choice
 of
 proper
 axes
 is
 making
 sure
 that
 they
 are
 completely
independent
of
each
other,
and
thus
can
be
arranged
crosswise
to
 each
other.
Keep
in
mind
that
scenario
development
is
an
iterative
process,
 as
is
shown
in
Figure
1.
The
idea
is
to
continually
update
and
improve
as
the
 process
goes
on,
creating
a
more
useful
tool
as
you
proceed.
At
this
stage,
it
is
 important
to
come
up
with
a
concept
in
which
each
scenario
sheds
light
on
 the
focal
issue,
and
is
both
plausible
and
meaningful.
 4. Headlining:
 Now,
 the
 group
 will
 turn
 its
 attention
 to
 the
 four
 different
 scenarios
 in
 turn,
 and
 attempt
 to
 develop
 stories
 for
 each.
 Considering
 the
 first
 scenario,
 each
 team
 member
 will
 think
 up
 a
 “headline”
 that
 might
 be
 found
in
a
newspaper
during
the
early
years
of
the
scenario.
These
should
be
 written
down
on
Post‐It
Notes,
and
shared
with
the
group.
The
group
should
 consider
each
headline
in
turn
and
evaluate
for
consistency
and
plausibility.
 The
 headline
 should
 then
 be
 placed
 on
 the
 chart
 for
 the
 specific
 scenario.
 This
 process
 should
 be
 repeated
 for
 the
 middle
 years
 and
 the
 end
 years
 of
 the
scenario.
 A
second
round
of
headlining
should
be
completed
for
the
beginning,
middle
 and
 end
 years
 of
 the
 scenario.
 This
 time,
 each
 team
 member
 should
 write
 down
three
headlines,
one
specific
to
each
of
the
two
axes
and
one
squarely
 in
the
middle.
 5. Writing
the
story:
The
team
will
begin
to
take
the
headlines
and
generate
a
 story
 around
 them.
 The
 group
 should
 focus
 on
 uncovering
 the
 underlying
 trends
 that
 tie
 the
 various
 pieces
 of
 the
 story
 together.
 Particular
 emphasis
 should
 be
 given
 to
 how
 these
 trends
 apply
 to
 the
 business
 of
 the
 organization.
Professor
Ogilvy
reminds
us
that
scenarios
should
use
familiar
 themes
as
plots,
such
as
winners
and
losers,
crisis
and
response,
good
news
 and
bad
news,
evolutionary
change,
revolutionary
change
or
cycles.
6
 SCENARIO
PLANNING


    • 
 6. 
Refine
 the
 story:
 This
 final
 phase
 of
 scenario
 creation
 involves
 taking
 the
 proposed
story
lines
in
each
of
the
scenarios,
and
fleshing
them
out
with
as
 much
detail
as
time
and
resources
permit.
For
some
organizations,
this
part
 of
the
process
can
take
months
and
consist
of
in‐depth
analyses
in
all
parts
of
 the
 organization’s
 business.
 It
 is
 important
 to
 take
 advantage
 of
 whatever
 subject
 matter
 experts
 that
 the
 team
 has
 access
 to,
 whose
 input
 will
 be
 invaluable
 to
 introducing
 those
 details
 which
 will
 bring
 realism
 to
 the
 scenario.
 
 Figure
1:
Scenario
Development
Process.
Source:

Ogilvy,
James
A.,
Developing
Scenarios:
Scenario
 DevelopmentFor
Presidio
School
of
Management.
Powerpoint.
San
Franicsco,
15
February
2008.
Connection
Once
the
scenarios
are
created,
the
team
can
focus
on
how
to
connect
the
scenarios
to
the
strategy
of
the
organization.
Scenarios
can
be
presented
to
management,
and
strategy
can
be
based
upon
them.
There
are
four
basic
strategies
which
can
be
employed
to
deal
with
a
world
based
in
the
scenarios
which
have
been
generated:
 • Bet
 the
 Farm:
 This
 strategy
 assumes
 that
 one
 of
 the
 four
 scenarios
 is
 the
 “right”
scenario,
and
represents
the
future,
as
it
will
actually
unfold.
Thus,
the
 organization
 tailors
 its
 strategy
 completely
 for
 this
 one
 future.
 This
 type
 of
 strategy
is
very
high
risk.
 • Core/Satellite:
This
method
places
a
heavier
emphasis
on
one
scenario
over
 the
 other
 three,
 but
 has
 some
 built‐in
 methods
 for
 dealing
 with
 the
 possibility
 of
 other
 scenarios
 arising.
 The
 strategy
 associated
 with
 this
 method
would
be
based
firmly
on
that
one
scenario,
but
includes
contingent
 strategies
if
the
organization
finds
itself
in
one
of
the
other
quadrants.

 • Hedge
Your
Bets:
This
strategy
assumes
that
the
organization
has
an
equal
 chance
of
finding
itself
in
any
one
of
the
four
futures.
It
creates
simultaneous
 strategies,
 each
 focused
 on
 a
 different
 scenario.
 This
 is
 similar
 to
 a
 product
 SCENARIO
PLANNING
 7


    • 
 manufacturer
 creating
 four
 different
 products,
 hoping
 one
 wins.
 This
 strategy
will
probably
create
a
win,
but
at
a
high
cost.
 • Robust:
 Like
 the
 hedging
 strategy,
 the
 organization
 also
 assumes
 that
 all
 possible
futures
have
an
equal
chance
of
arising
and
plans
accordingly.
The
 difference
 is
 that
 only
 one
 strategy
 is
 used,
 not
 multiple
 strategies.
 
 Royal
 Dutch
Shell
uses
robust
strategies
when
evaluating
new
projects:
 “each
 project
 is
 evaluated
 economically
 against
 a
 set
 of,
 say,
 two
 or
 three
 scenarios,
so
two
or
three
performance
outcomes
are
generated,
one
for
each
 scenario.
And
a
decision
on
whether
to
go
ahead
with
the
project
is
made
on
 the
basis
of
these
multiple
possible
outcomes,
instead
of
one
go/no‐go
number.
 The
aim
is
to
develop
projects
that
are
likely
to
have
positive
returns
under
any
 of
the
scenarios.”
(Van
Der
Heijden)
Once
strategies
are
determined,
the
team
can
focus
on
developing
“early
indicators”,
which
 are
 specific
 metrics
 that
 the
 company
 uses
 to
 determine
 what
 scenario
 the
organization
 is
 in
 at
 a
 particular
 time.
 Having
 a
 network
 of
 subject‐matter
 experts
can
be
particularly
handy
in
completing
this
task.
Conclusion
In
 my
 week
 two
 forum
 post,
 I
 alluded
 to
 the
 fact
 that
 scenario
 planning
 could
 be
used
as
a
tool
to
uncover
the
cultural
leanings
of
an
organization
without
engaging
in
 a
 process
 of
 specifically
 studying
 the
 culture
 directly.
 I
 think
 that
 scenario
planning
 offers
 us
 this
 opportunity
 by
 allowing
 us
 to
 see
 a
 microcosm
 of
 the
corporate
 culture
 in
 action.
 On
 the
 flip
 side
 of
 that,
 scenario
 planning
 can
 be
 a
lengthy
 and
 involved
 process,
 depending
 on
 how
 it
 is
 implemented.
 It
 can
 be
 a
workshop
run
over
two
weekends,
or
it
can
be
a
lengthy
strategic
process
spanning
months.
 Obviously,
 if
 your
 real
 goal
 is
 simply
 to
 find
 out
 how
 an
 organization’s
culture
works,
you
may
want
to
choose
the
shorter
variety.
By
observing
how
an
organization
approaches
the
scenario
planning
process
we
can
observe
all
three
levels
of
culture,
as
established
in
Edgar
Schein’s
Corporate
Culture
Survival
Guide:
Artifacts,
Espoused
Values
and
Shared
Tacit
Assumptions.
We
are
able
to
observe
artifacts
through
the
very
act
of
participating
in
the
physical
space
and
observing
the
dress,
surroundings,
atmosphere
and
meeting
style.
We
can
observe
 espoused
 values
 during
 the
 orientation
 and
 exploration
 phases
 of
 the
scenario
 planning
 process,
 by
 availing
 ourselves
 of
 all
 of
 the
 readily
 available
information
 that
 the
 company
 provides.
 Shared
 tacit
 assumptions
 will
 make
themselves
 known
 by
 the
 way
 that
 the
 team
 members
 proceed
 with
 the
 scenario
creation
 exercise
 itself.
 There
 are
 many
 opportunities
 to
 observe
 the
 culture
 in
operation,
from
the
topics
they
choose
to
study,
to
the
way
that
the
team
members
interact
with
each
other,
to
the
way
they
choose
to
implement
the
results.

8
 SCENARIO
PLANNING


    • 
Works
Cited
Global
Business
Network.
GBN
‐
About
History.
2004.
21
10
2008
<http://www.gbn.com/AboutHistoryDisplayServlet.srv>.
—.
GBN
Services
Consulting
‐
Scenario.
2004.
21
10
2008
<http://www.gbn.com/ServicesScenarioConsultingDisplayServlet.srv>.
Ogilvy,
James
A.
Creating
Better
Futures:
Scenario
Planning
as
a
Tool
for
a
Better
Tomorrow.
New
York:
Oxford
University
Press,
Inc.,
2002.
—.
Developing
Scenarios:
Scenario
Development
for
Presidio
School
of
Management.
Powerpoint.
San
Franicsco,
15
February
2008.
RAND
Corporation.
History
and
Mission.
27
May
2008.
6
October
2008
<http://www.rand.org/about/history/>.
Schwartz,
Peter
J.
The
Art
of
the
Long
View.
New
York:
Random
House,
Inc.,
1996.
Van
Der
Heijden,
Kees.
Scenarios:
The
Art
of
Strategic
Conversation.
Chinchester:
John
Wiley
&
Sons,
2005.
wikipedia.org.
Herman
Kahn.
30
September
2008.
6
October
2008
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Kahn>.



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 9