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Comprehensive Napa Valley Housing Market Overview 01/22/11

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Slideshow on the Napa housing market status presented at Napa Valley Baptist Church on January 22, 2011.

Slideshow on the Napa housing market status presented at Napa Valley Baptist Church on January 22, 2011.

Published in: Real Estate

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  • 1. Comprehensive Housing Market Overview January 22, 2011http://stevenwblack.com
  • 2. background13 years Experience http://stevenwblack.com
  • 3. background Top-Producing Realtor in Napahttp://www.flickr.com/photos/johnjoh/1060267344/ http://stevenwblack.com
  • 4. background Been through it personallyhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/smswigart/5147001743/ http://stevenwblack.com
  • 5. background Driven by passion to help other Americans keep their homeshttp://www.flickr.com/photos/bondomania/2636802659/ http://stevenwblack.com
  • 6. we’re going to talk about Why we’re here Who is a ected How it happens What you can do http://stevenwblack.com
  • 7. the fine print* Steven W. Black & Associates o ers information on the state of the market and insight into what has worked in the past. Each situation is unique and you are responsible for the use of the information presented. ! Steven W. Black & Associates offers information on the state of the market and insight into what has worked in the past. Each situation is unique and you are responsible for the use of the information presented. http://stevenwblack.com
  • 8. the fine print* Steven W. Black & Associates o ers information on the state of Don’tmarket are happy to the worry, we o er help specific to your and insight into what has workedafter this presentation situation in the past. Each situation is unique and you are responsible for the use of the information presented. ! Steven W. Black & Associates offers information on the state of the market and insight into what has worked in the past. Each situation is unique and you are responsible for the use of the information presented. http://stevenwblack.com
  • 9. Why Are We Here?http://www.flickr.com/photos/joao_trindade/4363157652 http://stevenwblack.com
  • 10. how it SHOULD workChange in financial situationARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc. http://stevenwblack.com
  • 11. how it SHOULD workChange in financial situation Loan ModificationARM Adjusts Priniciple reductionJob Loss RestructuringInjury (interest rate )etc. Enabled by Federal Assistance programs http://stevenwblack.com
  • 12. how it SHOULD workChange in financial situation Loan Modification one. D DARM Adjusts Priniciple reductionJob Loss RestructuringInjury (interest rate )etc. Enabled by Federal Assistance programs http://stevenwblack.com
  • 13. Loan Modification Programs http://stevenwblack.com
  • 14. loan modification programs SMD Streamlined Modification Process http://stevenwblack.com
  • 15. loan modification programs Indy Mac Plan http://stevenwblack.com
  • 16. loan modification programs Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac Plan http://stevenwblack.com
  • 17. loan modification programs Hope for Homeowners Plan (HUD/FHA) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 18. loan modification programs TARP (Troubled Assets Relief Program) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 19. loan modification programs HAMP (Home A ordable Modification Plan) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 20. loan modification programs SMD Streamlined Mod Process Indy Mac Plan Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac Plan Hope for Homeowners Plan TARP HAMP http://stevenwblack.com
  • 21. loan modification programs 1 SMD Streamlined Mod Process 2 Indy Mac Plan 3 Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac Plan 4 Hope for Homeowners Plan 5 TARP 6 HAMP http://stevenwblack.com
  • 22. How Did the Major Banks Do in 2009? http://stevenwblack.com
  • 23. wells fargo * 500,000 modifications in 2009* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 24. wells fargo * 500,000 modifications in 2009 10,000 modifications per state* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 25. wells fargo * 500,000 modifications in 2009 10,000 modifications per state that’s 833 modifications per month* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 26. wells fargo * 500,000 modifications in 2009 10,000 modifications per state that’s 833 modifications per month 58 counties in California* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 27. wells fargo * 500,000 modifications in 2009 10,000 modifications per state that’s 833 modifications per month 58 counties in California 172 per county every month* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 28. wells fargo * 500,000 modifications ns 2009 in 10,000 modifications a state oper L ib le that’s 833 modifications per month l ig 58 counties f E in California o 6 172 per %county every month* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 29. bank of america * 650,000 modifications in 2009* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 30. bank of america * 650,000 modifications in 2009 13,000 modifications per state* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 31. bank of america * 650,000 modifications in 2009 13,000 modifications per state that’s 1083 modifications per month* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 32. bank of america * 650,000 modifications in 2009 13,000 modifications per state that’s 1083 modifications per month 58 counties in California* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 33. bank of america * 650,000 modifications in 2009 13,000 modifications per state that’s 1083 modifications per month 58 counties in California 224 per county every month* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 34. bank of america * 650,000 modifications ns 2009 in 13,000 modifications a state oper L ib le that’s 1083 modifications per month l ig f 58 countiesE in California o 4 224 per% county every month* Source: Bloomberg News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=21070001&sid=atfjHz4E3sdc) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 35. How it Really Works http://stevenwblack.com
  • 36. how it really worksChange in financial situationARM AdjustsJob LossInjuryetc. http://stevenwblack.com
  • 37. how it really worksChange in financial situation Loan ModificationARM Adjusts Rarely happensJob Loss ~10% includeInjury principleetc. reduction Where is TARP? Where is HAMP? ... http://stevenwblack.com
  • 38. how it really worksChange in financial situation Loan Modification Short SaleARM Adjusts Rarely happens Bank drivesJob Loss ~10% include terms of saleInjury principle Multiple O ersetc. reduction Where is TARP? Where is HAMP? ... http://stevenwblack.com
  • 39. how it really works ree or - e - FFo rreChange in financial situation Loan Modification Short Sale cl c losu su o !!!ARM Adjusts Rarely happens Bank drives !!!Job Loss ~10% include terms of saleInjury principle Multiple O ersetc. reduction Where is TARP? Where is HAMP? ... http://stevenwblack.com
  • 40. Who is Directly A ected?http://www.flickr.com/photos/billward/4461521050/ http://stevenwblack.com
  • 41. who is directly a ected?home purchased in the last 13 years http://stevenwblack.com
  • 42. who is directly a ected?home purchased in the last 13 years that’s back to 1997 http://stevenwblack.com
  • 43. who is directly a ected? refinanced in the last 13 years that’s back to 1997 http://stevenwblack.com
  • 44. Who is Indirectly A ected? http://stevenwblack.com
  • 45. who is indirectly a ected? friends and familyhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/srogan/2284111398/ http://stevenwblack.com
  • 46. who is indirectly a ected? communitieshttp://www.flickr.com/photos/familymwr/4841981088 http://stevenwblack.com
  • 47. who is indirectly a ected? local businesses schools marriages taxpayers http://stevenwblack.com
  • 48. who is indirectly a ected? Everyone. http://stevenwblack.com
  • 49. Who Profits? http://stevenwblack.com
  • 50. bank profits * $60 $45 In $30 Billions $15 3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 $0 3/10 6/10 9/10* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 51. bank profits * $60 $45 In $30 Billions $15 3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 $0 3/10 6/10 9/10* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 52. bank profits * $51 Billion 292% annual increase $60 34% quarterly increase $38 Billion 533% annual increase 124% quarterly increase $45 In $30 Billions $15 3/08 6/08 9/08 12/08 3/09 6/09 9/09 12/09 $0 3/10 6/10 9/10* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 53. How it Happens http://stevenwblack.com
  • 54. pine st. napa $220,000 2 Bedroom 1 Bath $165,000 ~0.3 AcreRegular Sale $110,000 $55,000 870 ft2Oct 28, 2010 Dec 10, 2010 http://stevenwblack.com
  • 55. pine st. napa $220,000 2 Bedroom 1 Bath $165,000 ~0.3 AcreRegular Sale Sold by REO Bank owned $110,000 $55,000 870 ft2 1150 ft2Oct 28, 2010 Dec 10, 2010* Intentionally pulled one of the lowest comps in timeframe closest to close of escrow of affected property http://stevenwblack.com
  • 56. pine st. napa $220,000 2 Bedroom 1 Bath $165,000 ~0.3 AcreRegular Sale Sold by REO Bank owned $110,000 $55,000 870 ft2 1150 ft2 $50,100 devaluationOct 28, 2010 Dec 10, 2010 for a house 32% larger in ~5 weeks* Intentionally pulled one of the lowest comps in timeframe closest to close of escrow of affected property http://stevenwblack.com
  • 57. westwood neighborhood $230,000 2 Bedroom 1 Bath $172,500 ~0.12 AcreRegular Sale $115,000 $57,500 880 ft2Sept 4, 2009 Sept 18, 2009 http://stevenwblack.com
  • 58. westwood neighborhood $230,000 2 Bedroom 1 Bath $172,500 ~0.12 AcreRegular Sale Sold by REO Bank owned $115,000 $57,500 880 ft2 760 ft2Sept 4, 2009 Sept 18, 2009* Intentionally pulled one of the lowest comps in timeframe closest to close of escrow of affected property http://stevenwblack.com
  • 59. westwood neighborhood $230,000 2 Bedroom 1 Bath $172,500 ~0.12 AcreRegular Sale Sold by REO Bank owned $115,000 $57,500 880 ft2 760 ft2Sept 4, 2009 $81,800 devaluation Sept 18, 2009 in 14 days* Intentionally pulled one of the lowest comps in timeframe closest to close of escrow of affected property http://stevenwblack.com
  • 60. Ja n 31 , 20 Ap 07 r1 Regular Sale 0, 20 M 07 ay 29 ,2 00 Oc 7 t2 6, 20 07 Oc t3 1, 20 07 N ov 9, 20 07 Ap r4 ,2 00 Ap 8 autumn run neighborhood r2 3, 20 08 M ar 24 ,2 00 M 9 ay 11 ,2 00 9 Ju l2 9, 20 09 M ar 26 ,2 01 0 N ov 12 ,2 01 0 $350,000 $700,000 $1,050,000 $1,400,000http://stevenwblack.com
  • 61. Ja n 31 , 20 Ap 07 r1 Regular Sale 0, 20 M 07 ay 29 ,2 00 Oc 7 t2 6, 20 07 Oc t3 1, 20 07 N ov 9, 20 07 Ap r4 ,2 00 Ap 8 autumn run neighborhood r2 3, 20 08 M Bank owned ar 24 ,2 00 M 9 ay 11 ,2 00 9 * Ju l2 9, 20 09 * M ar 26 ,2 01 0 N ov 12 ,2 01 0 $350,000 $700,000 $1,050,000 $1,400,000http://stevenwblack.com
  • 62. autumn run neighborhood $1,400,000 $765,000 devaluation $1,050,000 over 3 years while bank profits are at record highs $700,000 Regular Sale Bank owned $350,000 * * 7 07 7 0 07 07 00 20 07 20 8 08 20 9 00 20 ,2 9 20 00 , 09 0 0, 31 00 20 0 ,2 29 6, 01 1, 01 r1 ,2 9, 20 n ,2 t2 r4 t3 3, ,2 ay ,2Ja Ap 24 ov r2 11 9, Oc Oc 26 Ap M 12 N l2 ar ay Ap ar ov Ju M M M N http://stevenwblack.com
  • 63. W ill ow be Ca nd pi Ct to . Ul la D Ch lm r. el eb an C W ro ok t. ill ow e C be t. Ca nd C pi to t. Ca la D pi to r. la Li Dr be rt . Ca yD pi r. to Ca la D pi r. to la Li Dr be . rt Ca yD pi r. to autumn run neighborhood la Li Ct be . rt yD Sa r. ge W ay Sa ge W Sa ay ge W ay Sa Ch ge el W eb ay ro ok eC Li t. be rt yD r. 8/2008 through 9/2010 Sa ge W ay $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000http://stevenwblack.com
  • 64. W ill ow be Ca nd pi Ct to . Ul la D Ch lm r. el eb an C W ro ok t. ill ow e C be t. Ca nd C pi to t. Ca la D pi to r. la Li Dr be rt . Ca yD pi r. to Ca la D pi r. to la Li Dr be . rt Ca yD pi r. to autumn run neighborhood la Li Ct be . rt yD Sa r. ge W ay Sa ge W Sa ay ge W ay Sa Ch ge el W eb ay ro ok eC Li t. be rt yD r. 8/2008 through 9/2010 Sa ge W ay $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000http://stevenwblack.com
  • 65. autumn run neighborhood Q1 2008 through Q3 2010 bank profits* home values* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 66. autumn run neighborhood Q1 2008 through Q3 2010 $51 Billion 292% annual increase 34% quarterly increase $765,000 devaluation* Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC; http://www.fdic.gov) http://stevenwblack.com
  • 67. napa overview As of January 14, 2011 Pre-forclosure 367 Auction 444 Bank Owned 401 Total 1,212* Source: BAREIS http://stevenwblack.com
  • 68. crime rate According to a study by Woodstock Institute and the Georgia Institute of Technology, a foreclosure rate of 3 percent leads to a 7 percent increase in crime** Source: National Association of Realtors http://stevenwblack.com
  • 69. What Can You Do? http://stevenwblack.com
  • 70. what you can do Get Educatedhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/3405811164/ http://stevenwblack.com
  • 71. what you can do Being here is a great start! Get Educatedhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/3405811164/ http://stevenwblack.com
  • 72. what you can do Get Helphttp://www.flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/4748766022/ http://stevenwblack.com
  • 73. what you can do * Get Help * Or someone like ushttp://www.flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/4748766022/ http://stevenwblack.com
  • 74. The Process http://stevenwblack.com
  • 75. the process http://stevenwblack.com
  • 76. the process Draft a plan http://stevenwblack.com
  • 77. the process Real Estate Attorney CPA Realtor Financial Advisor Bankruptcy Attorney http://stevenwblack.com
  • 78. the processReal Estate Attorney CPA RealtorFinancial AdvisorBankruptcy Attorney http://stevenwblack.com
  • 79. the processReal Estate Attorney CPA Realtor ExecuteFinancial AdvisorBankruptcy Attorney http://stevenwblack.com
  • 80. Next Steps http://stevenwblack.com
  • 81. we are here for you http://stevenwblack.com info@stevenwblack.com @stevenwblack Facebook 1.707.931.4700 http://stevenwblack.com
  • 82. Questions &Answers http://stevenwblack.com
  • 83. finishing up We Encourage Sharing You are free to download and distribute this presentation underthe terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial- ShareAlike licenseThat means you can use the information in this presentation fornon-commercial means as long as you share your work under the same license and give credit to Steven W. Black & Associates http://stevenwblack.com