ZOMBIE ONLINE POLITICS:                          Killing some online myths.                                      Steve Ols...
HOUSEKEEPING                                    TRIL   GYFriday, November 30, 12
Goals       • Knit together folks who are interested in talking about        -- and sharing -- data regarding online organ...
Ground Rules       • Apologies in advance for the language. I only curse        because I care about you.       • Feel fre...
Agenda       • Zombie Politics Defined       • Online Zombie Myths       • Discussion: Next Research Steps       • Discussi...
WHO THE HELL ARE YOU?                                         TRIL     GYFriday, November 30, 12
Steve Olson (@SteveOlson)       • First Website: 1994 (first for pay: 1998)       • Field Organizer 2000       • 2002-2003 ...
Trilogy Interactive (2012)                                    TRIL   GYFriday, November 30, 12
ZOMBIE ONLINE POLITICS                                         TRIL      GYFriday, November 30, 12
Zombie Online Politics: A Short History                           TheMonkeyCage.org                                       ...
Myth: The First                          Email is dead.                                     TRIL   GYFriday, November 30, 12
Myth: The First                          TRIL   GYFriday, November 30, 12
Myth: The Second                          Candidates who “win” on                           Facebook win the race.        ...
Myth: The Second       • Background: We were grumpy with all the “X is beating         Y on Facebook” articles in 2010    ...
Myth: The Second                                            FB-predicted outcome vs. actual outcome                       ...
Myth: The Second                                           FB-predicted outcome vs. actual outcome                        ...
Myth: The Second                                           FB-predicted outcome vs. actual outcome                        ...
Myth: The Second       • Results: Slightly correlated for US Senate (13% of         result); no correlation for gubernator...
Myth: The Second (2012!)                                  TRIL   GYFriday, November 30, 12
SLOTH!!!!                          TRIL   GYFriday, November 30, 12
Myth: The Third          You Shouldn’t Ask for Money on                 Social Networks                          (h/t @HNa...
Myth: The Third       • Background: Statewide Ballot Initiative -- unusually         large & active Facebook fan base     ...
Myth: The Third         Passive           Active       • 100 gifts        • 40 asks       • $6,186.28        • 1,064 gifts...
Myth: The Third                          $84,021.78 raised in six                           months on Facebook.           ...
Myth: The Third (kicker)                   $1,848,635.94 raised online                      4.54% from Facebook           ...
Myth: The Fourth                  You Shouldn’t Ask People to                         Retweet You                         ...
Myth: The Fourth                          TRIL   GYFriday, November 30, 12
Myth: The Fourth                          source: DanZarrella.com / Hubspot.com                                           ...
Myth: The Fourth                            source: DanZarrella.com                                 Hubspot.com           ...
BABY OTTER PILE!                          TRIL   GYFriday, November 30, 12
Myth: The Fifth            Email the list this video: We’re                going to raise a ton!                          ...
Myth: The Fifth         The Test: Does placing a lightbox callout AFTER a video         raise more money than placing a vi...
LET’S DO THIS.                                      TRIL   GYFriday, November 30, 12
Stay in touch                          solson@trilogyinteractive.com                                  @SteveOlson         ...
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Killing Zombie Online Campaign Myths -- With Data

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Presented by Steve Olson at Rootscamp '12, Washington DC, November 30, 2012

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Killing Zombie Online Campaign Myths -- With Data

  1. ZOMBIE ONLINE POLITICS: Killing some online myths. Steve Olson Senior Strategist Trilogy Interactive @SteveOlson TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  2. HOUSEKEEPING TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  3. Goals • Knit together folks who are interested in talking about -- and sharing -- data regarding online organizing. • Present some data to help ground what we do in some form of reality. •Discuss your myth-busting data • Gather ideas for future research -- and sharing of results TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  4. Ground Rules • Apologies in advance for the language. I only curse because I care about you. • Feel free to interrupt. • Email: OnlineZombieMyths@Gmail.com • #Roots12 #ZombieRoots • Your mileage may vary TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  5. Agenda • Zombie Politics Defined • Online Zombie Myths • Discussion: Next Research Steps • Discussion: Building a Learning Infrastructure TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  6. WHO THE HELL ARE YOU? TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  7. Steve Olson (@SteveOlson) • First Website: 1994 (first for pay: 1998) • Field Organizer 2000 • 2002-2003 NYU Political Campaign Management Graduate School • DCCC Online Operations (2003-2005) • Planned Parenthood Fed. of Am. (2005-2007) •Udall for Us All (2008) TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  8. Trilogy Interactive (2012) TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  9. ZOMBIE ONLINE POLITICS TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  10. Zombie Online Politics: A Short History TheMonkeyCage.org TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  11. Myth: The First Email is dead. TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  12. Myth: The First TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  13. Myth: The Second Candidates who “win” on Facebook win the race. TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  14. Myth: The Second • Background: We were grumpy with all the “X is beating Y on Facebook” articles in 2010 • The Hypothesis: If organizing on Facebook was an indicator of the strength of the campaign as a whole, the “Like share” should predict the share of the vote. • The Hedging: This was 2010 data, Facebook’s users are far more representative of the voting population now. Additionally, we only had likes in 2010 -- no “talking about this” or easy engagement metrics. TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  15. Myth: The Second FB-predicted outcome vs. actual outcome 0.6 0.5 0.4 Win Margin 0.3 Win Margin Predicted Win Margin 0.2 0.1 0 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 FB FAN Margin Figure 1: U.S. Senate races TRIL GY But for gubernatorial races, Figure 2, we see only a very weak correlation, as represented by the red line sloping only slightly up as you move from left to right. The strength of the campaigns Facebook presence would only explain about 0.008 of the vote margin, according to these calculations.Friday, November 30, 12
  16. Myth: The Second FB-predicted outcome vs. actual outcome 0.6 0.5 0.4 Win Margin 0.3 Win Margin 0.2 Predicted Win Margin 0.1 0 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 FB FAN Margin Figure 2: Gubernatorial Races For our sample of U.S. House races, we observed a slight negative correlation, meaning a stronger TRIL Facebook presence was associated with a smaller margin of victory. Figure 3 shows predicted win margin decreasing as you move from left to right. GYFriday, November 30, 12
  17. Myth: The Second FB-predicted outcome vs. actual outcome 0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 Win Margin 0.25 Win Margin 0.2 Predicted Win Margin 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 FB Fan Margin Figure 3: U.S. House Races One thing all three graphs have in common is the wide scattering of the win margin plots. All three sets TRIL of data produced large standard deviations, which hints at the wide variety of factors in play in this election. GY SUMMARYFriday, November 30, 12
  18. Myth: The Second • Results: Slightly correlated for US Senate (13% of result); no correlation for gubernatorial, slightly negative (!) for House races. TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  19. Myth: The Second (2012!) TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  20. SLOTH!!!! TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  21. Myth: The Third You Shouldn’t Ask for Money on Social Networks (h/t @HNachem) TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  22. Myth: The Third • Background: Statewide Ballot Initiative -- unusually large & active Facebook fan base • The issue: Very active posting (3-5x per day; strong responsiveness, high quality posts), but reluctant to ask heavily. Preferred to “build the narrative”. Implicitly relying on passive fundraising via donation link on the page. TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  23. Myth: The Third Passive Active • 100 gifts • 40 asks • $6,186.28 • 1,064 gifts • $61.86 average • $73,317.50 • $68.91 average TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  24. Myth: The Third $84,021.78 raised in six months on Facebook. TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  25. Myth: The Third (kicker) $1,848,635.94 raised online 4.54% from Facebook TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  26. Myth: The Fourth You Shouldn’t Ask People to Retweet You TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  27. Myth: The Fourth TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  28. Myth: The Fourth source: DanZarrella.com / Hubspot.com TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  29. Myth: The Fourth source: DanZarrella.com Hubspot.com TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  30. BABY OTTER PILE! TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  31. Myth: The Fifth Email the list this video: We’re going to raise a ton! TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  32. Myth: The Fifth The Test: Does placing a lightbox callout AFTER a video raise more money than placing a video on a donation page? • CONTROL • TEST • Sent: 44,683 • Sent: 44,875 • Donations: 23 • Donations: 69 • Total Raised: • Total Raised: $900 ($39.13 $2,346 avg) TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  33. LET’S DO THIS. TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12
  34. Stay in touch solson@trilogyinteractive.com @SteveOlson facebook.com/stevenkolson TRIL GYFriday, November 30, 12

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