The Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

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The Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

  1. 1. Population Change in England and Wales 1700-2000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Birth Rate Death Rate Total Population
  2. 2. Population Change Births Immigrants Deaths Emigrants Total Population Natural Increase Migration The total population of an area is the balance between 2 forces of change: natural increase and migration Natural increase is the balance between birth rates and death rates Inputs Outputs
  3. 3. World Population Changes
  4. 4. Global Natural Increase
  5. 5. Doubling Time This map shows how long it will take for countries to double their population if it continued to grow at the present rate
  6. 6. Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Natural Increase In Population Natural Decrease In Population Stage 5 ?
  7. 7. Stage 1 High Fluctuating Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 1 • Low population – Increasing very slowly • High birth rate • High death rate • Tribes (Amazonia) • UK: pre-1780
  8. 8. Stage 2 Early Expanding Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 2 • Population growing at faster rate • High but decreasing birth rate • Decreasing death rate • Sri Lanka/Bolivia • UK: 1780-1880
  9. 9. Stage 3 Late Expanding Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 3 • Population still increasing, but rate of increase slowing down • Decreasing birth rate • Low death rate • Uruguay/China • UK: 1880-1940
  10. 10. Stage 4 Low Fluctuating Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 4 • High population, almost stable • Low birth rate • Low death rate • Canada/USA • UK: post-1940
  11. 11. Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Ethiopia/ Niger UK: pre-1780 Natural Increase In Population Natural Decrease In Population Sri Lanka/ Bolivia UK: 1780-1880 Uruguay/ China UK: 1880-1940 Canada/ USA UK: Post-1940
  12. 12. Reasons What do you think the reasons are for the changes at each stage?
  13. 13. Reasons for Stage 1 High Fluctuating Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 1 • Little access to birth control • Many children die in infancy so parents have more to compensate • Children are needed to work on the land • Some religions encourage large families • Death rates are high due to disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science
  14. 14. Reasons for Stage 2 Early Expanding Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 2 • Improvements in medical care • Improvements in sanitation and water supply • Quality and quantity of food produced improves • Transport and communications improve movements of food and medical supplies • Decrease in infant mortality
  15. 15. Reasons for Stage 3 Late Expanding Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 3 • Increased access to contraception • Lower infant mortality rates so less need for bigger families • Industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers required • As wealth increases, desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families • Equality of women means they can follow a career rather than just staying at home
  16. 16. Reasons for Stage 4 Low Fluctuating Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 4 • Rates fluctuate with ‘baby booms’ and epidemics of illnesses and diseases • Reasons for Stage 4 have improved and it stabilises
  17. 17. Is there a Stage 5? ? ? ? Stage 5: Declining (or Depleting) Population
  18. 18. Limitations What limitations do you think there could be with the model? • It does not include the influences of migration • It assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern • There is no time scale • Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very different in different countries • And finally, is there a stage 5?
  19. 19. The End?

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