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The Demographic Transition Model (DTM)
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The Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

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  • 1. Population Change in England and Wales 1700-2000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Birth Rate Death Rate Total Population
  • 2. Population Change Births Immigrants Deaths Emigrants Total Population Natural Increase Migration The total population of an area is the balance between 2 forces of change: natural increase and migration Natural increase is the balance between birth rates and death rates Inputs Outputs
  • 3. World Population Changes
  • 4. Global Natural Increase
  • 5. Doubling Time This map shows how long it will take for countries to double their population if it continued to grow at the present rate
  • 6. Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Natural Increase In Population Natural Decrease In Population Stage 5 ?
  • 7. Stage 1 High Fluctuating Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 1 • Low population – Increasing very slowly • High birth rate • High death rate • Tribes (Amazonia) • UK: pre-1780
  • 8. Stage 2 Early Expanding Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 2 • Population growing at faster rate • High but decreasing birth rate • Decreasing death rate • Sri Lanka/Bolivia • UK: 1780-1880
  • 9. Stage 3 Late Expanding Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 3 • Population still increasing, but rate of increase slowing down • Decreasing birth rate • Low death rate • Uruguay/China • UK: 1880-1940
  • 10. Stage 4 Low Fluctuating Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 4 • High population, almost stable • Low birth rate • Low death rate • Canada/USA • UK: post-1940
  • 11. Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Ethiopia/ Niger UK: pre-1780 Natural Increase In Population Natural Decrease In Population Sri Lanka/ Bolivia UK: 1780-1880 Uruguay/ China UK: 1880-1940 Canada/ USA UK: Post-1940
  • 12. Reasons What do you think the reasons are for the changes at each stage?
  • 13. Reasons for Stage 1 High Fluctuating Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 1 • Little access to birth control • Many children die in infancy so parents have more to compensate • Children are needed to work on the land • Some religions encourage large families • Death rates are high due to disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science
  • 14. Reasons for Stage 2 Early Expanding Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 2 • Improvements in medical care • Improvements in sanitation and water supply • Quality and quantity of food produced improves • Transport and communications improve movements of food and medical supplies • Decrease in infant mortality
  • 15. Reasons for Stage 3 Late Expanding Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 3 • Increased access to contraception • Lower infant mortality rates so less need for bigger families • Industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers required • As wealth increases, desire for material possessions takes over the desire for large families • Equality of women means they can follow a career rather than just staying at home
  • 16. Reasons for Stage 4 Low Fluctuating Total Population Birth Rate Death Rate Stage 4 • Rates fluctuate with ‘baby booms’ and epidemics of illnesses and diseases • Reasons for Stage 4 have improved and it stabilises
  • 17. Is there a Stage 5? ? ? ? Stage 5: Declining (or Depleting) Population
  • 18. Limitations What limitations do you think there could be with the model? • It does not include the influences of migration • It assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern • There is no time scale • Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very different in different countries • And finally, is there a stage 5?
  • 19. The End?