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Attribution Case Study (Detailed) | Encore Media Metrics

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This Attribution Case Study was documented in 2012 by Encore Media Metrics. …

This Attribution Case Study was documented in 2012 by Encore Media Metrics.

Special thanks for Lipman Advertising for participating in this case study.

For a copy please email info (at) encoremetrics.com or tweet to http://Twitter.com/EncoreMetrics

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  • 1. Case Study and InsightsUpdated 4/1/12Agency: Lipman Advertising NYCClient: Resort OperatorCampaign objectives: create awareness and consideration for the brand in a way that ismeasureable and insightful with the primary goal of driving hotel and lodging reservations. Thecampaign utilized search, email and display advertising (150 million imps) over 5 months.As Lipman’s trusted partner for campaign insights, Encore measured the attributed impact ofeach channel, vendor, placement and keyword, providing daily dashboards andcomprehensive monthly reports. Based on our statistical approach to attributing credit (seebelow for details) we delivered critical insights across a range of KPIs, including: • Conversion paths for visitors exposed to media • Number of impressions required to influence a conversion (by vendor and overall) • Cost per Action: Last Click vs. Attributed • Ranking of vendors: winners, laggards and bubbles (middle) based on Attributed CPA • Engagement cycles: time lag between first impression, last impression, visit and conversion • Day-part analysis: illustrating visits, conversions and conversion rates by day and hour • Relative value and weighting of each Assist impression in the engagement process • CPA for each keyword, based on last-click vs. attributed (allocating credit for assists) • Please see charts from most recent campaign report in Exhibit 1Key Takeaways: • Display was much more effective than previously believed… o Accounted for 26% of attributed conversions o Compared favorable to paid search (26%) and natural search (15%) o Almost 30% of conversions via natural search, referring and direct navigation were influenced by display and paid search. • Performance by media vendor and placement varied significantly… o Attributed CPAs ranging from $32 to $919 o Mean was $107 with standard deviation of $67). • By understanding conversion paths, engagement cycles, placement performance and optimal frequency, Lipman can optimize in a whole new way. The projected value of optimizing: $750k per month (44% increase). - May not be shared without permission © Encore Media Metrics 2012 - For information: info@encoremetrics.com | 646.820.1006
  • 2. Key Insights: • Optimal frequency (based on machine learning probability model) was 5.7 impressions overall, ranging from 1.8 to 9.6 among the vendors on the plan. • After attributing credit for assist impressions and clicks… Ÿ CPA for display ads fell by 60% overall, ranging from 20% to 85% among various media placements. Ÿ CPA for paid search also fell by 15%. • Engagement cycles validate the need for a sustainable, visible presence Ÿ 48% of Converters took action more than 30 days after seeing the first ad. Ÿ 49% of Converters took action within 1 day of seeing the last ad. Ÿ The average converter visited 4.2 times before taking the desired action. • Performance of media vendors varied considerably (based on Attributed CPA). Ÿ Four clear winners had an average CPA of $46 Ÿ Four “on the bubble” with average CPA of $121 Ÿ Three laggards with an average CPA of $521Specific Reports are provided below.Conversion Paths Display% Natural% Paid%Path%Analysis IMPs Visits Direct%Nav Referring Display% Visits% Clicks Search SearchAll Visitors 5.2 4.2 1.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 1.4 55.2% 44.8%Cluster 4 (45%) 1.5 2.8 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 35.2% 64.8%Cluster 6 (21%) 4.7 3.8 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.5 0.6 55.2% 44.8%Cluster 3 (15%) 6.1 4.0 1.5 0.2 1.8 0.3 0.2 60.3% 39.7%Cluster 8 (13%) 3.9 4.8 0.0 1.2 2.0 0.1 1.3 45.1% 54.9%Relative Contribution (all) 54.2% 45.8% 9.1% 6.1% 9.5% 7.6% 13.3%Includes Converters who were exposed to ads, grouped in natural clusters via machine-learning algorithm.InterpretationThere is a broad distribution of conversion paths so we need to look beyond the averages. In aggregate, display adsaccounted for 54% of interactions (range 35-60%) that led to conversions. Natural and paid search combined for 17.1% ofof Interactions that influenced conversions.The "Average" Converter saw 5.2 display ads and visited 4.2 times. Most common sources: 1.1 Display, 0.8 NaturalSearch, 0.5 Paid search, 1.4 referring. • As shown above, among those exposed to display media, impressions accounted for 54% of interactions that drove conversions. Among this group, paid and natural search played a role in 17.3% of the engagement paths. • This indicates that consumers were engaged through many channels before taking action and that deeper analysis is needed. Page 2 of 8 - May not be shared without permission © Encore Media Metrics 2012 - For information: info@encoremetrics.com | 646.820.1006
  • 3. Channel-Level Attribution Ac#onsByChannel Lst Click Attributable CostPerAc#onByChannel 1,600 1,520$ $350 $319.96$ Last Click Attributable 1,400 $300 1,199$ 1,213$ 1,200 1,085$ 1,013$ 1,026$ $250 1,000 $200 800 732$ 609$ $131.60$ $150 600 499$ 435$ 400 $100 200 $50 $22.38$ $18.91$ 0 $0 Direct Nav Org Search Referrals Paid Search Display Paid Search Display • After attributing partial credit for assist impressions and clicks, display emerged as the most impactful online channel, accounting for 26% of attributed actions (vs. 15% for natural search and 26% for paid search). As shown above, Display became the single biggest contributor to conversions. • As shown above, cost per action for display fell 60% from $320 last click to $131 per attributed action.Media Vendors Performance (Attributed) Impressions*Required*by*Vendor* Visit$ Conversion$ 10 9.6$ 9.0$ 9 7.8$ 8 7.0$ 7.0$ 7 6.6$ 6.2$ 6 5.4$ 4.7$ 5 4.4$ 4 3.5$ 3.0$ 3.2$ 3 2.4$ 2.4$ 1.7$ 1.6$ 1.8$ 1.8$ 2 1.3$ 1.3$ 1.1$ 1 0 Publisher 1 Publisher 2 Publisher 3 Ad Net 1 Publisher 4 Publisher 5 Publisher 6 Publisher 7 Publisher 8 Ad Net 2 Publisher 9 • As shown above, the quality of placement ranged significantly by media vendor. While the modeled optimal Frequency was 5.7 impressions for a conversion, some placements demonstrated required a much higher number of impressions to have impact than others (range was 1.8 to 9.6). Page 3 of 8 - May not be shared without permission © Encore Media Metrics 2012 - For information: info@encoremetrics.com | 646.820.1006
  • 4. Actions/ Click/ Assist/ ICE/ ICE/ Actions/ CPA:/Last/ CPA:/Vendor Impressions Spend Rating (Last) Assists Imps. Ratio Assists (Attrib.) Click AttributedPublisher/8 2,046,438 333 75 107 4.7 23 431 $13,971 $41.96 $32.43 WinnerAd/Net/1 3,427,418 63 45 1,672 7.8 214 322 $13,710 $217.61 $42.53 WinnerPublisher/9 1,227,090 8 5 610 1.8 339 352 $15,792 $1973.95 $44.88 WinnerPublisher/5 1,002,757 20 5 939 4.4 213 238 $15,368 $768.39 $64.46 WinnerPublisher/7 307,472 5 0 91 1.8 51 56 $5,863 $1172.56 $105.53 BubblePublisher/2 433,527 14 7 140 9.0 16 37 $3,978 $284.16 $108.83 BubblePublisher/1 1,735,227 11 1 143 2.4 60 72 $9,059 $823.58 $126.56 BubblePublisher/3 1,191,854 18 5 198 3.5 57 80 $11,329 $629.41 $142.38 BubblePublisher/6 238,828 17 6 0 7.0 0 23 $6,207 $365.12 $269.87 LaggardAd/Net/2 7,786,210 13 8 344 9.6 36 57 $21,306 $1638.95 $374.89 LaggardPublisher/4 227,348 2 0 11 1.6 7 9 $8,157 $4078.26 $919.04 LaggardTotals 19,624,169 504 157 4,255 4.2 1,014 1,675 $124,740 $247.50 $74.45Notes: MEAN $106.88Click3Assists:3Number3of3times3this3vendors3ads3were3clicked3prior3to3a3subsequent3action3taken3on3the3site. STDEV $69.80Assist3Impressions:3Number3of3display3impressions3seen3by3visitors3before3taking3an3action3on3the3site.ICE3Ratio:3ImpressionNtoNClick3Equivalent3=3#3of3Assist3Impressions3required3to3drive3a3visit.3ICE3Assists:3Number3of3Click3Assists3allocated3to3each3Vendor3based3on3number3of3Impression3Assists3(based3on3Weightings3assigned3above).Engagements3(Clicks+Assists):3Includes3all3visits,3assist3clicks3and3assist3impressions3that3drove3Actions3for3this3time3period.CPA3Attributed:3Cost3Per3Action3based3on3the3Attributed3number3of3actions3for3each3vendor.Rating:3Based3on3each3vendors3relative3CPA3Below3the3mean3=3Winner,3Within3+13Standard3Deviation3=3Bubble,3>13Stand.3Dev3=3Laggard• While the overall mean CPA was $107 (standard deviation of $70), placements (vendors) range from $32 to $919.• While many vendors drove cost-effective visitors, not all were successful in driving conversions. Case in point: Ad Network 2 was in the top 50% of vendors based on CPV, but fell to the bottom 20% for Cost Per Action.• By allocating budget to the top performers (away from the laggards) Lipman has been able to optimize spend throughout the campaign. Vendor-specific performance is illustrated below. Cost%Per%Ac+on%by%Vendor% Last Click Attributable $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,173$ $1,000 $919$ $824$ $768$ $800 $629$ $600 $365$ $375$ $400 $284$ $270$ $218$ $142$ $200 $106$ $109$ $127$ $42$ $45$ $64$ $32$ $43$ $0 Publisher 8 Ad Net 1 Publisher 9 Publisher 5 Publisher 7 Publisher 2 Publisher 1 Publisher 3 Publisher 6 Ad Net 2 Publisher 4 Page 4 of 8 - May not be shared without permission © Encore Media Metrics 2012 - For information: info@encoremetrics.com | 646.820.1006
  • 5. Predictive Analysis % of Proforma Proforma Proforma Group Spend Revenue ROS Impact Budget % Budget ROS Revenue Winners $58,841 37% $1,343,423 $22.83 59% $22.83 $2,157,823 $814,401 Bubble $65,148 41% $267,262 $4.10 41% $4.51 $293,988 $26,726 Laggards $35,670 22% $88,708 $2.49 0% n/a $0 ($88,708) Total $159,659 100% $1,699,393 $10.64 100% $15.36 $2,451,811 $752,418 Relative Improvement 44% Incremental Revenue $752,418 Takeaway: by moving budget from Laggards to Winners and improving performance of Bubbles by 10% is worth a 44% improvement in revenue • As shown above, predictive analysis indicates an opportunity to increase revenue and ROS by 44% or $750k. By re-allocating budgets to the top performers and optimizing frequency, significant efficiencies can be gained. Encore’s measurement and reporting capabilities are critical to our media optimization strategy. Their cross-channel, full-funnel views, and actionable insights enable us to maximize performance while saving valuable time and energy. - Lauren Wexler, Media Director, LIPMAN AdvertisingAbout Encore Media MetricsEncore Media Metrics helps marketers optimize performance through better analytics. As apioneer in Attribution, Encore helps clients measure performance across channels and beyondthe last click, producing actionable insights while reducing the cost and complexity of mediameasurement. For more information, visit http://EncoreMetrics.com or Encore’s AttributionBlog at http://Attribution101.comAbout LIPMAN AdvertisingLIPMAN is in the business of building iconic brands. Founded in 1927, we have quietly built animpeccable and enviable reputation of excellence in branding, holistic marketing and creativework on iconic brands, like Burberry, Lord & Taylor, Smartwater, Diane Von Furstenburg, DavidYurman, Town & Country (the agency is setting the new creative direction for the magazine),Bacara Resorts, Talisker Resorts, The Limited, Georg Jensen, Hudson Jeans, Evolution Juice,Mercedes Benz, DeBeers, Oscar de La Renta, St. John, Tumi, Ermenegildo Zegna, Godiva andEquinox. Additionally, the company has a celebrity branding division that includes JenniferAniston, Justin Timberlake, Andre Benjamin (Andre 3000) and the pro golfer, Michelle Wie. Page 5 of 8 - May not be shared without permission © Encore Media Metrics 2012 - For information: info@encoremetrics.com | 646.820.1006
  • 6. Company OverviewEncore is the first to address the needs of both advertisers and media vendors withprogrammatic, attribution-based solutions for measuring online media.Attribution solves the "last-click" problem by allocating partial credit to each impression, clickand interaction that influence conversions. Through Encores statistically validated attributionmodel, marketers can see the true performance of each channel, vendor, placement andkeyword. Encore also measures the optimal frequency for converters while quantifyingopportunities to expand reach and increase ad efficiency. Armed with these insights,marketers can optimize campaigns effectively and efficiently while gleaning a deeperunderstanding of customer engagement cycles.For advertisers, Encore provides advanced measurement, integrated reporting and full-funnelattribution as an outsourced, on-demand solution. Specific reports include: a) attributable CPVand CPA, b) path to conversion, c) impression frequency and d) impression recency.For media vendors, Encore measures the performance and profitability of each media segment(audience, contextual, behavioral, etc.), giving vendors insightful reports and clear, directionalsignals for optimizing campaigns. Encore also enables vendors to illustrate the value of theirmedia to advertisers via objective, 3rd party attribution-based views of performance.Developed in partnership with leading media companies, Encore’s patent-pending approach tosupply side measurement addresses a significant unmet need for vendors and advertisers.Encore’s solution is intuitive, efficient and most importantly, useful. Encore’s hands-on,consultative approach provides deeper insights into performance of paid, owned and earnedmedia while reducing the level of effort required on behalf of the agency and/or advertiser.Attribution MethodologyEncore’s approach to Attribution starts with aggregating and syncing impression data with sitevisitor data to create a comprehensive record of served impressions, visits, actions and pageviews for every visitor (paid and organic). This user-based data is then analyzed to produceactionable insights into campaign performance. Analyses include: 1. Conversion Path Analysis: Encore aggregates and groups media conversion paths into natural clusters using statistical models that quantify the contribution of each channel in the engagement process. 2. Vendor Analysis: Encore uses cluster sequencing algorithms and Markov probability analyses to measure performance of each vendor and placement. We attributed credit for each vendor based on it’s statistically derived contributions (assist impressions, assist clicks and last clicks) and compute an Attributed CPA for each vendor and placement. We then rank vendors as a “Winner,” “Laggard” or “Bubble” based on their performance relative to other vendors. Page 6 of 8 - May not be shared without permission © Encore Media Metrics 2012 - For information: info@encoremetrics.com | 646.820.1006
  • 7. 3. Sequence-Based Impression Weighting: We calculate the relative value of each impression based on sequence and time (in reverse chronological order) to help advertisers understand how recency and sequence impacts performance. 4. Lastly, we quantify wasted spend by calculating how many impressions are inefficiently served. We use the statistical modeling above to calculate how many impressions were required to drive a visit and a conversion (for each vendor and for the channel), then calculate how much budget the Advertiser could have redeployed by reducing frequency and increasing reach.DifferentiatorsWhen compared to other vendors, we believe it’s safe to say that most can provide statisticallyvalidated insights into cross-channel / full-funnel performance of online media. So we’ll avoidthe “our math is better than your math” argument and point out our other key differentiators: 1. Programmatic Modeling: Encore delivers programmatic, statistical modeling to analyze and data and allocate credit to each touch-point in the engagement path. Clients are not required to come up with their own weighting schemes – we provide a statistically validated set of recommendations for each client. And rather than relying on proprietary algorithms that offer little visibility, Encore uses a well-known statistical model (Markov algorithm) that provides predictable and consistent results. 2. Actionable insights. Beyond conversion paths, Encore delivers actionable insights that make it easy to optimize campaigns. Attribution-based views show the true performance at a channel, vendor, placement and keyword level, as well as optimal frequency, engagement cycles, ad recency and day-parts. Encore also delivers KPIs for search, display, affiliate, email, social and other media. Armed with intuitive charts and data, clients can focus on analyzing results vs. exporting and producing reports. Chart 1: Channel CPA: Last Click vs. Attributed ! Page 7 of 8 - May not be shared without permission © Encore Media Metrics 2012 - For information: info@encoremetrics.com | 646.820.1006
  • 8. Table 2: Vendor CPA: Last Click vs. Attributed Assist0 Clicks0 Click0 Engageme CPV:0Last= CPV:0 Vendor Impressions Impressio ICE0Ratio ICE0Assists Spend Rating (Last) Assists nts Click Attributed ns AccuWeather 662,220 346 19 1,142 2.0 571 936 $3,755 $10.85 $4.01 Winner Family=Getaway* 423,396 402 30 3,184 6.5 493 925 $6,590 $16.39 $7.12 Winner LA0Times 594,107 206 4 501 2.0 251 461 $4,497 $21.83 $9.77 Bubble Luxury0Link 526,583 478 78 4,869 5.0 974 1,530 $21,911 $45.84 $14.32 Bubble Media6 1,687,161 361 77 24,104 6.6 3,675 4,113 $7,592 $21.03 $1.85 Winner New0York0Times* 190,035 719 30 221 3.1 71 820 $17,517 $24.36 $21.35 Laggard NY0magazine 1,245,994 288 20 1,987 2.0 994 1,302 $28,845 $100.16 $22.16 Laggard On0The0Snow 144,676 123 14 2,000 10.8 184 321 $1,804 $14.67 $5.61 Winner Travel0Leisure 815,242 445 18 5,463 4.2 1,308 1,771 $31,611 $71.04 $17.85 Laggard Travel0Zoo 365,746 917 83 1,210 2.0 605 1,605 $10,550 $11.51 $6.57 Winner Tribal0Fusion 1,317,093 361 56 7,588 5.6 1,353 1,770 $3,846 $10.65 $2.17 Winner Trip0Advisor 695,017 779 43 7,348 2.0 3,674 4,496 $15,146 $19.44 $3.37 Winner Totals 8,674,626 5430 472 59,728 4.2 14,171 20,073 $153,751 $28.32 $7.66 */includes/email/drop MEAN $000000009.22 STDEV $000000007.283. Flexibility: Our solution is very flexible and adaptable across a broad range of clients and needs. Specific examples include: • Attribution for visits and visitors; not just conversions • Attribution at numerous levels: channel, vendor, keyword, format and segment • Able to measure a range of objectives: primary goals (leads, sales, etc.) and secondary goals (goal page views, email signups, etc.) • User-friendly attribution model that clients can modify to do sensitivity analysis4. Lower Level of Effort. To address the needs of resource-constrained agencies, Encore was designed to reduce the level of complexity and effort required to produce insights. Moreover, Encore provides consultative, hands-on approach to helping clients plan, implement, manage and maximize deployments.5. Trusted by Market Leaders: Encore is relied upon by leading brands and agencies around the world. In early 2012, Encore was selected by MediaMind (#2 global ad server) as its partner for integration attribution. In the US and Japan, Encore serves some of the world’s leading advertisers and agencies. Encore is also the ONLY vendor to provide attribution-based reporting for leading media vendors (including m6d, Clearspring and Yahoo). Most notably, Encore was recently chosen by MediaMind’s to be its strategic partner for integrated Attribution (announced early 2012). Encore is working with MediaMind to introduce the industry’s most robust, integrated solution for advanced analytics while lowering the level of effort for agencies and advertisers. Page 8 of 8 - May not be shared without permission © Encore Media Metrics 2012 - For information: info@encoremetrics.com | 646.820.1006