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Bba 2204 fin mgt week 7 stock valuation

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Equity, PE, Valuation

Equity, PE, Valuation

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  • 1. BBA 2204 FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Stock Valuation Stock Valuation by Stephen Ong Visiting Fellow, Birmingham City University Business School, UK Visiting Professor, Shenzhen
  • 2. Today’s Overview
  • 3. Learning Goals 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7-3 Differentiate between debt and equity. Discuss the features of both common and preferred stock. Describe the process of issuing common stock, including venture capital, going public and the investment banker. Understand the concept of market efficiency and basic stock valuation using zero-growth, constant-growth, and variablegrowth models. Discuss the free cash flow valuation model and the book value, liquidation value, and price/earnings (P/E) multiple approaches. Explain the relationships among financial decisions, return, risk, and the firm’s value.
  • 4. Differences Between Debt and Equity 7-4 • Debt includes all borrowing incurred by a firm, including bonds, and is repaid according to a fixed schedule of payments. • Equity consists of funds provided by the firm’s owners (investors or stockholders) that are repaid subject to the firm’s performance. • Debt financing is obtained from creditors and equity financing is obtained from investors who then become part owners of the firm. • Creditors (lenders or debtholders) have a legal right to be repaid, whereas investors only have an expectation of being repaid.
  • 5. Table 7.1 Key Differences between Debt and Equity Capital 7-5
  • 6. Differences Between Debt and Equity: Voice in Management 7-6 • Unlike creditors, holders of equity (stockholders) are owners of the firm. • Stockholders generally have voting rights that permit them to select the firm’s directors and vote on special issues. • In contrast, debtholders do not receive voting privileges but instead rely on the firm’s contractual obligations to them to be their voice.
  • 7. Differences Between Debt and Equity: Claims on Income and Assets • Equity holders’ claims on income and assets are secondary to the claims of creditors. ∗ Their claims on income cannot be paid until the claims of all creditors, including both interest and scheduled principal payments, have been satisfied. • Because equity holders are the last to receive distributions, they expect greater returns to compensate them for the additional risk they bear. 7-7
  • 8. Matter of Fact ∗ How Are Assets Divided in Bankruptcy? ∗ According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, in bankruptcy assets are divided up as follows: 7-8 1. Secured Creditors – secured bank loans or secured bonds, are paid first. 2. Unsecured Creditors – unsecured bank loans or unsecured bonds, suppliers, or customers, have the next claim. 3. Equity holders – equity holders or the owners of the company have the last claim on assets, and they may not receive anything if the Secured and Unsecured Creditors’ claims are not fully rep aid.
  • 9. Differences Between Debt and Equity: Maturity • Unlike debt, equity capital is a permanent form of financing. • Equity has no maturity date and never has to be repaid by the firm. 7-9
  • 10. Differences Between Debt and Equity: Tax Treatment 7-10 • Interest payments to debtholders are treated as tax-deductible expenses by the issuing firm. • Dividend payments to a firm’s stockholders are not tax-deductible. • The tax deductibility of interest lowers the corporation’s cost of debt financing, further causing it to be lower than the cost of equity financing.
  • 11. Common and Preferred Stock: Common Stock • Common stockholders, who are sometimes referred to as residual owners or residual claimants, are the true owners of the firm. • As residual owners, common stockholders receive what is left—the residual—after all other claims on the firms income and assets have been satisfied. • They are assured of only one thing: that they cannot lose any more than they have invested in the firm. • Because of this uncertain position, common stockholders expect to be compensated with adequate dividends and ultimately, capital gains. 7-11
  • 12. Common Stock: Ownership • The common stock of a firm can be privately owned by an private investors, closely owned by an individual investor or a small group of investors, or publicly owned by a broad group of investors. • The shares of privately owned firms, which are typically small corporations, are generally not traded; if the shares are traded, the transactions are among private investors and often require the firm’s consent. • Large corporations are publicly owned, and their shares are generally actively traded in the broker or dealer markets . 7-12
  • 13. Common Stock: Par Value • The par value of common stock is an arbitrary value established for legal purposes in the firm’s corporate charter, and can be used to find the total number of shares outstanding by dividing it into the book value of common stock. • When a firm sells news shares of common stock, the par value of the shares sold is recorded in the capital section of the balance sheet as part of common stock. • At any time the total number of shares of common stock outstanding can be found by dividing the book value of common stock by the par value. 7-13
  • 14. Common Stock: Preemptive Rights • A preemptive right allows common stockholders to maintain their proportionate ownership in the corporation when new shares are issued, thus protecting them from dilution of their ownership. • Dilution of ownership is a reduction in each previous shareholder’s fractional ownership resulting from the issuance of additional shares of common stock. • Dilution of earnings is a reduction in each previous shareholder’s fractional claim on the firm’s earnings resulting from the issuance of additional shares of common stock. 7-14
  • 15. Common Stock: Preemptive Rights (cont.) • Rights are financial instruments that allow stockholders to purchase additional shares at a price below the market price, in direct proportion to their number of owned shares. • Rights are an important financing tool without which shareholders would run the risk of losing their proportionate control of the corporation. • From the firm’s viewpoint, the use of rights offerings to raise new equity capital may be less costly than a public offering of stock. 7-15
  • 16. Common Stock: Authorized, Outstanding, and Issued Shares • Authorized shares are the shares of common stock that a firm’s corporate charter allows it to issue. • Outstanding shares are issued shares of common stock held by investors, this includes private and public investors. • Treasury stock are issued shares of common stock held by the firm; often these shares have been repurchased by the firm. • Issued shares are shares of common stock that have been put into circulation. Issued shares = outstanding shares + treasury stock 7-16
  • 17. Common Stock: Authorized, Outstanding, and Issued Shares (cont.) ∗Golden Enterprises, a producer of medical pumps, has the following stockholder’s equity account on December 31st. 7-17
  • 18. Common Stock: Voting Rights • Generally, each share of common stock entitles its holder to one vote in the election of directors and on special issues. • Votes are generally assignable and may be cast at the annual stockholders’ meeting. • A proxy statement is a statement transferring the votes of a stockholder to another party. 7-18 ∗ Because most small stockholders do not attend the annual meeting to vote, they may sign a proxy statement transferring their votes to another party. ∗ Existing management generally receives the stockholders’ proxies, because it is able to solicit them at company expense.
  • 19. Common Stock: Voting Rights (cont.) • A proxy battle is an attempt by a nonmanagement group to gain control of the management of a firm by soliciting a sufficient number of proxy votes. • Supervoting shares is stock that carries with it multiple votes per share rather than the single vote per share typically given on regular shares of common stock. • Nonvoting common stock is common stock that carries no voting rights; issued when the firm wishes to raise capital through the sale of common stock but does not want to give up its voting control. 7-19
  • 20. Common Stock: Dividends • The payment of dividends to the firm’s shareholders is at the discretion of the company’s board of directors. • Dividends may be paid in cash, stock, or merchandise. • Common stockholders are not promised a dividend, but they come to expect certain payments on the basis of the historical dividend pattern of the firm. • Before dividends are paid to common stockholders any past due dividends owed to preferred stockholders must be paid. 7-20
  • 21. Common Stock: International Stock Issues • The international market for common stock is not as large as that for international debt. • However, cross-border issuance and trading of common stock have increased dramatically during the past 30 years. • Stock Issued in Foreign Markets 7-21 ∗ A growing number of firms are beginning to list their stocks on foreign markets. ∗ Issuing stock internationally both broadens the company’s ownership base and helps it to integrate itself in the local business environment. ∗ Locally traded stock can facilitate corporate acquisitions, because shares can be used as an acceptable method of payment.
  • 22. Common Stock: International Stock Issues (cont.) ∗ Foreign Stocks in U.S. Markets ∗ American depositary receipts (ADRs) are dollardenominated receipts for the stocks of foreign companies that are held by a U.S. financial institution overseas. ∗ American depositary shares (ADSs) are securities, backed by American depositary receipts (ADRs), that permit U.S. investors to hold shares of non-U.S. companies and trade them in U.S. markets. ∗ ADSs are issued in dollars to U.S. investors and are subject to U.S. securities laws. ∗ ADSs give investors the opportunity to diversify their portfolios internationally. 7-22
  • 23. Preferred Stock • Preferred stock gives its holders certain privileges that make them senior to common stockholders. • Preferred stockholders are promised a fixed periodic dividend, which is stated either as a percentage or as a dollar amount. • Par-value preferred stock is preferred stock with a stated face value that is used with the specified dividend percentage to determine the annual dollar dividend. • No-par preferred stock is preferred stock with no stated face value but with a stated annual dollar dividend. 7-23
  • 24. Preferred Stock: Basic Rights of Preferred Stockholders • Preferred stock is often considered quasi-debt because, much like interest on debt, it specifies a fixed periodic payment (dividend). • Preferred stock is unlike debt in that it has no maturity date. • Because they have a fixed claim on the firm’s income that takes precedence over the claim of common stockholders, preferred stockholders are exposed to less risk. • Preferred stockholders are not normally given a voting right, although preferred stockholders are sometimes allowed to elect one member of the board of directors. 7-24
  • 25. Preferred Stock: Features of Preferred Stock • Restrictive covenants including provisions about passing dividends, the sale of senior securities, mergers, sales of assets, minimum liquidity requirements, and repurchases of common stock. • Cumulative preferred stock is preferred stock for which all passed (unpaid) dividends in arrears, along with the current dividend, must be paid before dividends can be paid to common stockholders. • Noncumulative preferred stock is preferred stock for which passed (unpaid) dividends do not accumulate. 7-25
  • 26. Preferred Stock: Features of Preferred Stock (cont.) • A callable feature is a feature of callable preferred stock that allows the issuer to retire the shares within a certain period time and at a specified price. • A conversion feature is a feature of convertible preferred stock that allows holders to change each share into a stated number of shares of common stock. 7-26
  • 27. Issuing Common Stock • Initial financing for most firms typically comes from a firm’s original founders in the form of a common stock investment. • Early stage debt or equity investors are unlikely to make an investment in a firm unless the founders also have a personal stake in the business. • Initial non-founder financing usually comes first from private equity investors. • After establishing itself, a firm will often “go public” by issuing shares of stock to a much broader group. 7-27
  • 28. Issuing Common Stock: Venture Capital • Venture capital is privately raised external equity capital used to fund early-stage firms with attractive growth prospects. • Venture capitalists (VCs) are providers of venture capital; typically, formal businesses that maintain strong oversight over the firms they invest in and that have clearly defined exit strategies. • Angel capitalists (angels) are wealthy individual investors who do not operate as a business but invest in promising early-stage companies in exchange for a portion of the firm’s equity. 7-28
  • 29. Table 7.2 Organization of Institutional Venture Capital Investors 7-29
  • 30. Venture Capital: Deal Structure and Pricing • Venture capital investments are made under legal contracts that clearly allocate responsibilities and ownership interests between existing owners (founders) and the VC fund or limited partnership • Terms depend on factors related to the (a) original founders, (b) business structure, (c) stage of development, and (d) other market and timing issues. • Specific financial terms depend upon (a) the value of the enterprise, (b) the amount of funding required, and (c) the perceived risk of the investment. 7-30
  • 31. Venture Capital: Deal Structure and Pricing (cont.) • To control the VC’s risk, various covenants are included in agreements and the actual funding provided may be staggered based on the achievement of measurable milestones. • The contract will also have a defined exit strategy. • The amount of equity to which the VC is entitled depends on (a) the value of the firm, (b) the terms of the contract, (c) the exit terms, and (d) minimum compound annual rate of return required by the VC on its investment. 7-31
  • 32. Going Public ∗When a firm wishes to sell its stock in the primary market, it has three alternatives. 1. A public offering, in which it offers its shares for sale to the general public. 2. A rights offering, in which new shares are sold to existing shareholders. 3. A private placement, in which the firm sells new securities directly to an investor or a group of investors. ∗Here we focus on the initial public offering (IPO), which is the first public sale of a firm’s stock. 7-32
  • 33. Going Public (cont.) • IPOs are typically made by small, fast-growing companies that either: ∗ require additional capital to continue expanding, or ∗ have met a milestone for going public that was established in a contract to obtain VC funding. • The firm must obtain approval of current shareholders, and hire an investment bank to underwrite the offering. • The investment banker is responsible for promoting the stock and facilitating the sale of the company’s IPO shares. 7-33
  • 34. Going Public (cont.) • The company must file a registration statement with the SEC. • The prospectus is a portion of a security registration statement that describes the key aspects of the issue, the issuer, and its management and financial position. • A red herring is a preliminary prospectus made available to prospective investors during the waiting period between the registration statement’s filing with the SEC and its approval. 7-34
  • 35. Figure 7.1 Cover of a Preliminary Prospectus for a Stock Issue 7-35
  • 36. Going Public (cont.) • Investment bankers and company officials promote the company through a road show, a series of presentations to potential investors around the country and sometimes overseas. • This helps investment bankers gauge the demand for the offering which helps them to set the initial offer price. • After the underwriter sets the terms, the SEC must approve the offering. 7-36
  • 37. Going Public: The Investment Banker’s Role • An investment banker is a financial intermediary that specializes in selling new security issues and advising firms with regard to major financial transactions. • Underwriting is the role of the investment banker in bearing the risk of reselling, at a profit, the securities purchased from an issuing corporation at an agreed-on price. • This process involves purchasing the security issue from the issuing corporation at an agreed-on price and bearing the risk of reselling it to the public at a profit. • The investment banker also provides the issuer with advice about pricing and other important aspects of the issue. 7-37
  • 38. Going Public: The Investment Banker’s Role (cont.) • An underwriting syndicate is a group of other bankers formed by an investment banker to share the financial risk associated with underwriting new securities. • The syndicate shares the financial risk associated with buying the entire issue from the issuer and reselling the new securities to the public. • The selling group is a large number of brokerage firms that join the originating investment banker(s); each accepts responsibility for selling a certain portion of a new security issue on a commission basis. 7-38
  • 39. Figure 7.2 The Selling Process for a Large Security Issue 7-39
  • 40. Going Public: The Investment Banker’s Role (cont.) ∗Compensation for underwriting and selling services typically comes in the form of a discount on the sale price of the securities. ∗ For example, an investment banker may pay the issuing firm $24 per share for stock that will be sold for $26 per share. ∗ The investment banker may then sell the shares to members of the selling group for $25.25 per share. In this case, the original investment banker earns $1.25 per share ($25.25 sale price – $24 purchase price). ∗ The members of the selling group earn 75 cents for each share they sell ($26 sale price – $25.25 purchase price). 7-40
  • 41. Common Stock Valuation • Common stockholders expect to be rewarded through periodic cash dividends and an increasing share value. • Some of these investors decide which stocks to buy and sell based on a plan to maintain a broadly diversified portfolio. • Other investors have a more speculative motive for trading. ∗ They try to spot companies whose shares are undervalued— meaning that the true value of the shares is greater than the current market price. ∗ These investors buy shares that they believe to be undervalued and sell shares that they think are overvalued (i.e., the market price is greater than the true value). 7-41
  • 42. Common Stock Valuation: Market Efficiency • Economically rational buyers and sellers use their assessment of an asset’s risk and return to determine its value. • In competitive markets with many active participants, the interactions of many buyers and sellers result in an equilibrium price—the market value—for each security. • Because the flow of new information is almost constant, stock prices fluctuate, continuously moving toward a new equilibrium that reflects the most recent information available. This general concept is known as market efficiency. 7-42
  • 43. Common Stock Valuation: Market Efficiency • The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is a theory describing the behavior of an assumed “perfect” market in which: 7-43 ∗ securities are in equilibrium, ∗ security prices fully reflect all available information and react swiftly to new information, and ∗ because stocks are fully and fairly priced, investors need not waste time looking for mispriced securities.
  • 44. Common Stock Valuation: Market Efficiency • Although considerable evidence supports the concept of market efficiency, a growing body of academic evidence has begun to cast doubt on the validity of this notion. • Behavioural finance is a growing body of research that focuses on investor behaviour and its impact on investment decisions and stock prices. Advocates are commonly referred to as “behaviourists.” 7-44
  • 45. Focus on Practice ∗Understanding Human Behaviour Helps Us Understand Investor Behaviour ∗ Regret theory deals with the emotional reaction people experience after realizing they have made an error in judgment. ∗ Some investors rationalize their decision to buy certain stocks with “everyone else is doing it.” (Herding) Herding ∗ People have a tendency to place particular events into mental compartments, and the difference between these compartments sometimes impacts behavior more than the events themselves. ∗ Prospect theory suggests that people express a different degree of emotion toward gains than losses. ∗ Anchoring is the tendency of investors to place more value on recent information. 7-45
  • 46. Common Stock Valuation: Basic Common Stock Valuation Equation ∗The value of a share of common stock is equal to the present value of all future cash flows (dividends) that it is expected to provide. ∗where P0 Dt ∗ 7-46 = value of common stock = per-share dividend expected at the end of year t Rs = required return on common stock P0 = value of common stock
  • 47. Common Stock Valuation: The Zero Growth Model ∗The zero dividend growth model assumes that the stock will pay the same dividend each year, year after year. ∗The equation shows that with zero growth, the value of a share of stock would equal the present value of a perpetuity of D1 dollars discounted at a 7-47
  • 48. Personal Finance Example • Chuck Swimmer estimates that the dividend of Denham Company, an established textile producer, is expected to remain constant at $3 per share indefinitely. • If his required return on its stock is 15%, the stock’s value is: ∗ $20 ($3 ÷ 0.15) per share 7-48
  • 49. Common Stock Valuation: Constant-Growth Model ∗The constant-growth model is a widely cited dividend valuation approach that assumes that dividends will grow at a constant rate, but a rate that is less than the required return. ∗The Gordon model is a common name for the constant-growth model that is widely cited in dividend valuation. 7-49
  • 50. Common Stock Valuation: Constant-Growth Model (cont.) ∗Lamar Company, a small cosmetics company, paid the following per share dividends: 7-50
  • 51. Common Stock Valuation: Constant-Growth Model (cont.) ∗Using a financial calculator or a spreadsheet, we find that the historical annual growth rate of Lamar Company dividends equals 7%. 7-51
  • 52. Common Stock Valuation: Variable-Growth Model • The zero- and constant-growth common stock models do not allow for any shift in expected growth rates. • The variable-growth model is a dividend valuation approach that allows for a change in the dividend growth rate. • To determine the value of a share of stock in the case of variable growth, we use a four-step procedure. 7-52
  • 53. Common Stock Valuation: Variable-Growth Model (cont.) ∗Step 1. Find the value of the cash dividends at the end of each year, Dt, during the initial growth period, years 1 though N. D ∗Dt = D0 × (1 + g1)t 7-53
  • 54. Common Stock Valuation: Variable-Growth Model (cont.) ∗Step 2. Find the present value of the dividends expected during the initial growth period. 7-54
  • 55. Common Stock Valuation: Variable-Growth Model (cont.) ∗Step 3. Find the value of the stock at the end of the initial growth period, PN = (DN+1)/(rs – g2), which is the present value of all dividends expected from year N + 1 to infinity, assuming a constant dividend growth rate, g2. 7-55
  • 56. Common Stock Valuation: Variable-Growth Model (cont.) ∗Step 4. Add the present value components found in Steps 2 and 3 to find the value of the stock, P0. 7-56
  • 57. Common Stock Valuation: Variable-Growth Model (cont.) ∗The most recent annual (2012) dividend payment of Warren Industries, a rapidly growing boat manufacturer, was $1.50 per share. The firm’s financial manager expects that these dividends will increase at a 10% annual rate, g1, over the next three years. At the end of three years (the end of 2015), the firm’s mature product line is expected to result in a slowing of the dividend growth rate to 5% per year, g2, for the foreseeable future. The firm’s required return, rs, is 15%. 7-57
  • 58. Table 7.3 Calculation of Present Value of Warren Industries Dividends (2013–2015) 7-58
  • 59. Common Stock Valuation: Variable-Growth Model (cont.) ∗Step 3. The value of the stock at the end of the initial growth period (N = 2015) can be found by first calculating DN+1 = D2016. ∗D2016 = D2015 × (1 + 0.05) = $2.00 × (1.05) = $2.10 ∗By using D2016 = $2.10, a 15% required return, and a 5% dividend growth rate, we can calculate the value of the stock at the end of 2015 as follows: ∗P2015 = D2016 / (rs – g2) = $2.10 / (.15 – .05) = $21.00 7-59
  • 60. Common Stock Valuation: Variable-Growth Model (cont.) ∗Step 3 (cont.) Finally, the share value of $21 at the end of 2015 must be converted into a present (end of 2012) value. ∗P2015 / (1 + rs)3 = $21 / (1 + 0.15)3 = $13.81 ∗Step 4. Adding the PV of the initial dividend stream (found in Step 2) to the PV of the stock at the end of the initial growth period (found in Step 3), we get: ∗P2012 = $4.14 + $13.82 = $17.93 per share 7-60
  • 61. Common Stock Valuation: Free Cash Flow Valuation Model ∗A free cash flow valuation model determines the value of an entire company as the present value of its expected free cash flows discounted at the firm’s weighted average cost of capital, which is its expected average future cost of funds over the long run. ∗where 7-61 VC = value of the entire company FCFt = free cash flow expected at the end of year t end of year t ra = the firm’s weighted average cost of capital
  • 62. Common Stock Valuation: Free Cash Flow Valuation Model (cont.) ∗Because the value of the entire company, VC, is the market value of the entire enterprise (that is, of all assets), to find common stock value, VS, we must subtract the market value of all of the firm’s debt, VD, and the market value of preferred stock, VP, from VC. 7-62 V ∗VS = VC – VD – VP
  • 63. Table 7.4 Dewhurst, Inc.’s Data for the Free Cash Flow Valuation Model 7-63
  • 64. Common Stock Valuation: Free Cash Flow Valuation Model (cont.) ∗Step 1. Calculate the present value of the free cash flow occurring from the end of 2018 to infinity, measured at the beginning of 2018. 7-64
  • 65. Common Stock Valuation: Free Cash Flow Valuation Model (cont.) ∗Step 2. Add the present value of the FCF from 2018 to infinity, which is measured at the end of 2017, to the 2017 FCF value to get the total FCF in 2017. ∗Total FCF2017 = $600,000 + $10,300,000 = $10,900,000 ∗Step 3. Find the sum of the present values of the FCFs for 2013 through 2017 to determine the value of the entire company, VC. This step is detailed in Table 7.5 on the following slide. 7-65
  • 66. Table 7.5 Calculation of the Value of the Entire Company for Dewhurst, Inc. 7-66
  • 67. Common Stock Valuation: Free Cash Flow Valuation Model (cont.) ∗Step 4. Calculate the value of the common stock. ∗VS = $8,626,426 – $3,100,000 – $800,000 = $4,726,426 ∗The value of Dewhurst’s common stock is therefore estimated to be $4,726,426. By dividing this total by the 300,000 shares of common stock that the firm has outstanding, we get a common stock value of $15.76 per share ($4,726,426 ÷ 300,000). 7-67
  • 68. Common Stock Valuation: Other Approaches to Stock Valuation • Book value per share is the amount per share of common stock that would be received if all of the firm’s assets were sold for their exact book (accounting) value and the proceeds remaining after paying all liabilities (including preferred stock) were divided among the common stockholders. • This method lacks sophistication and can be criticized on the basis of its reliance on historical balance sheet data. • It ignores the firm’s expected earnings potential and generally lacks any true relationship to the firm’s value in the marketplace. 7-68
  • 69. Common Stock Valuation: Other Approaches to Stock Valuation (cont.) ∗At year-end 2012, Lamar Company’s balance sheet shows total assets of $6 million, total liabilities (including preferred stock) of $4.5 million, and 100,000 shares of common stock outstanding. Its book value per share therefore would be 7-69
  • 70. Common Stock Valuation: Other Approaches to Stock Valuation (cont.) • Liquidation value per share is the actual amount per share of common stock that would be received if all of the firm’s assets were sold for their market value, liabilities (including preferred stock) were paid, and any remaining money were divided among the common stockholders. • This measure is more realistic than book value because it is based on current market values of the firm’s assets. • However, it still fails to consider the earning power of those assets. 7-70
  • 71. Common Stock Valuation: Other Approaches to Stock Valuation (cont.) ∗Lamar Company found upon investigation that it could obtain only $5.25 million if it sold its assets today. The firm’s liquidation value per share therefore would be 7-71
  • 72. Common Stock Valuation: Other Approaches to Stock Valuation (cont.) • The price/earnings (P/E) ratio reflects the amount investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. • The price/earnings multiple approach is a popular technique used to estimate the firm’s share value; calculated by multiplying the firm’s expected earnings per share (EPS) by the average price/earnings (P/E) ratio for the industry. 7-72
  • 73. Common Stock Valuation: Other Approaches to Stock Valuation (cont.) ∗Lamar Company is expected to earn $2.60 per share next year (2013). Assuming a industry average P/E ratio of 7, the firms per share value would be ∗$2.60 × 7 = $18.20 per share 7-73
  • 74. Focus on Ethics ∗Psst—Have You Heard Any Good Quarterly Earnings Forecasts Lately? 7-74 ∗ Companies used earnings guidance to lower analysts’ estimates; when the actual numbers came in higher, their stock prices jumped. ∗ The practice reached a fever pitch during the late 1990s when companies that missed the consensus earnings estimate, even by just a penny, saw their stock prices tumble. ∗ In March 2007 the CFA Centre for Financial Market Integrity and the Business Roundtable Institute for Corporate Ethics proposed a template for quarterly earnings reports that would, in their view, obviate the need for earnings guidance. ∗ What are some of the real costs a company must face in preparing quarterly earnings guidance?
  • 75. Matter of Fact ∗ Problems with P/E Valuation 7-75 ∗ The P/E multiple approach is a fast and easy way to estimate a stock’s value. ∗ However, P/E ratios vary widely over time. ∗ Therefore, analysts using the P/E approach in the 1980s would have come up with much lower estimates of value than analysts using the model 20 years later. ∗ In other words, when using this approach to estimate stock values, the estimate will depend more on whether stock market valuations are high or low rather than on whether the particular company is doing well or not.
  • 76. Figure 7.3 Decision Making and Stock Value 7-76
  • 77. Decision Making and Common Stock Value: Changes in Expected Dividends • Assuming that economic conditions remain stable, any management action that would cause current and prospective stockholders to raise their dividend expectations should increase the firm’s value. • Therefore, any action of the financial manager that will increase the level of expected dividends without changing risk (the required return) should be undertaken, because it will positively affect owners’ wealth. 7-77
  • 78. Decision Making and Common Stock Value: Changes in Expected Dividends (cont.) ∗Assume that Lamar Company announced a major technological breakthrough that would revolutionize its industry. Current and prospective stockholders expect that although the dividend next year, D1, will remain at $1.50, the expected rate of growth thereafter will increase from 7% to 9%. 7-78
  • 79. Decision Making and Common Stock Value: Changes in Risk • Any measure of required return consists of two components: a risk-free rate and a risk premium. We expressed this relationship as in the previous chapter, which we repeat here in terms of rs: • Any action taken by the financial manager that increases the risk shareholders must bear will also increase the risk premium required by shareholders, and hence the required return. • Additionally, the required return can be affected by changes in the risk free rate—even if the risk premium 7-79
  • 80. Decision Making and Common Stock Value: Changes in Risk (cont.) ∗Assume that Lamar Company manager makes a decision that, without changing expected dividends, causes the firm’s risk premium to increase to 7%. Assuming that the risk-free rate remains at 9%, the new required return on Lamar stock will be 16% (9% + 7%). 7-80
  • 81. Decision Making and Common Stock Value: Combined Effect ∗If we assume that the two changes illustrated for Lamar Company in the preceding examples occur simultaneously, the key variable values would be D1 = $1.50, rs = 0.16, and g = 0.09. 7-81
  • 82. Review of Learning Goals Differentiate between debt and equity. ∗ Holders of equity capital (common and preferred stock) are owners of the firm. Typically, only common stockholders have a voice in management. Equity holders’ claims on income and assets are secondary to creditors’ claims, there is no maturity date, and dividends paid to stockholders are not tax-deductible. Discuss the features of both common and preferred stock. 7-82 ∗ The common stock of a firm can be privately owned, closely owned, or publicly owned. It can be sold with or without a par value. Preemptive rights allow common stockholders to avoid dilution of ownership when new shares are issued. Some firms have two or more classes of common stock that differ mainly in having unequal voting rights. Proxies transfer voting rights from one party to another. The decision to pay dividends to common stockholders is made by the firm’s board of directors. ∗ Preferred stockholders have preference over common stockholders with respect to the distribution of earnings and assets. They do not normally have voting privileges. Preferred stock issues may have certain restrictive covenants, cumulative dividends, a call feature, and a conversion feature.
  • 83. Review of Learning Goals (cont.) Describe the process of issuing common stock, including venture capital, going public, and the investment banker. ∗ The initial nonfounder financing for business startups with attractive growth prospects typically comes from private equity investors. These investors can be either angel capitalists or venture capitalists (VCs). ∗ The first public issue of a firm’s stock is called an initial public offering (IPO). The company selects an investment banker to advise it and to sell the securities. The lead investment banker may form a selling syndicate with other investment bankers. The IPO process includes getting SEC approval, promoting the offering to investors, and pricing the issue. 7-83
  • 84. Review of Learning Goals (cont.) Understand the concept of market efficiency and basic stock valuation using zero-growth, constantgrowth, and variable-growth models. ∗ Market efficiency assumes that the quick reactions of rational investors to new information cause the market value of common stock to adjust upward or downward quickly. ∗ The value of a share of stock is the present value of all future dividends it is expected to provide over an infinite time horizon. Three dividend growth models—zero-growth, constant-growth, and variable-growth— can be considered in common stock valuation. The most widely cited model is the constant-growth model. 7-84
  • 85. Review of Learning Goals (cont.) Discuss the free cash flow valuation model and the book value, liquidation value, and price/earnings (P/E) multiple approaches. 7-85 ∗ The free cash flow valuation model finds the value of the entire company by discounting the firm’s expected free cash flow at its weighted average cost of capital. The common stock value is found by subtracting the market values of the firm’s debt and preferred stock from the value of the entire company. ∗ Book value per share is the amount per share of common stock that would be received if all of the firm’s assets were sold for their exact book (accounting) value and the proceeds remaining after paying all liabilities (including preferred stock) were divided among the common stockholders. ∗ Liquidation value per share is the actual amount per share of common stock that would be received if all of the firm’s assets were sold for their market value, liabilities (including preferred stock) were paid, and the remaining money were divided among the common stockholders. ∗ The price/earnings (P/E) multiple approach estimates stock value by multiplying the firm’s expected earnings per share (EPS) by the average price/earnings (P/E) ratio for the industry.
  • 86. Review of Learning Goals (cont.) Explain the relationships among financial decisions, return, risk, and the firm’s value. ∗ In a stable economy, any action of the financial manager that increases the level of expected dividends without changing risk should increase share value; any action that reduces the level of expected dividends without changing risk should reduce share value. Similarly, any action that increases risk (required return) will reduce share value; any action that reduces risk will increase share value. An assessment of the combined effect of return and risk on stock value must be part of the financial decision-making process. 7-86
  • 87. Integrative Case: Encore International 7-87
  • 88. a. b. c. d. e. f. 7-88 Integrative Case: Encore International What is the firm’s current book value per share? What is the firm’s current P/E ratio? What is the current required return for Encore stock? What will be the new required return for Encore stock assuming that they expand into European and Latin American markets as planned? If the securities analysts are correct and there is no growth in future dividends, what will be the value per share of the Encore stock? (Note: use the new required return on the company’s stock here) If Jordan Ellis’s predictions are correct, what will be the value per share of Encore stock if the firm maintains a constant annual 6% growth rate in future dividends? (Note: Continue to use the new required return here.) If Jordan Ellis’s predictions are correct, what will be the value per share of Encore stock if the firm maintains a constant annual 8% growth rate in dividends per share over the next 2 years and 6% thereafter? Compare the current (2012) price of the stock and the stock values found in parts a, d, and e. Discuss why these values may differ. Which valuation method do you believe most clearly represents the true value of the Encore stock?
  • 89. Further Reading ∗ Gitman, Lawrence J. and Zutter ,Chad J.(2013) Principles of Managerial Finance, Pearson,13th Edition ∗ Brooks,Raymond (2013) Financial Management: Core Concepts , Pearson, 2th edition 1 - 89
  • 90. Questions?

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