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zerocarbonbritain2030 is a positive, realistic vision for a society without fossil fuels, grounded in the latest climate science. Produced by the Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT), the report is ...

zerocarbonbritain2030 is a positive, realistic vision for a society without fossil fuels, grounded in the latest climate science. Produced by the Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT), the report is the first fully integrated solution to climate change and energy security for Britain. It demonstrates that society and our quality of life could thrive, whilst keeping Britain’s net greenhouse gas emissions at zero.


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  • Next few slides show who was involved in creating the report, not just CAT
  • Next few slides show who was involved in creating the report, not just CAT
  • Next few slides show who was involved in creating the report, not just CAT
  • In 1976, when CAT produced its first energy scenario, it advised against a reliance on fossil fuels. Climate change wasn’t on the radar, but CAT recognised the dangers and environmental destruction associated with fossil fuels, when renewable alternatives were ample and energy consumption much lower. Imagine where we would be today if the UK had followed that route.
  • Next few slides show who was involved in creating the report, not just CAT but a wide range of experts, universities, research bodies etc.
  • Zerocarbonbritain2030 is the first report to look not only at individual sectors in isolation and how they can reduce emissions, but also at how those sectors interact. How do cuts in one sector affect another. We’re reshaping the vision for the future, away from the apocalyptic doom, and giving form to what a decarbonised society could be like - prosperous, efficient, aspirational and a great place to live. We don’t want to hear that we must change our lives or doom anymore, we believe the scientists, we can see the changing weather patterns. We’re pushing for solutions as to how we can do that as a whole society, not just individuals.
  • Too much focus is on small incremental changes. How we can cut a bit each year. This is a short-termist and possibly damaging way to deal with climate change. If we spend so long focusing on picking the low hanging fruit, we’ll realise further down the line we should’ve been building the ladder to get to the juicy ones at the top. We need to focus on the big changes, the infrastructure and industry that will be developed to deliver big reductions later. We need to project into the future, get an vision for where we want to be then backcast to what should be done when. Zerocarbonbritain2030 presents that vision, a future with no reliance on fossil fuels, and an energy abundance from renewable sources. Eventually, if we are to adequately tackle climate change, the UK and world will have to completely decarbonise. Which is where 80% cuts are misleading. By working to only 80% we may be locked into technologies and infrastructure that doesn’t allow the reduction of that extra 20%. An example is CCS, it can only deliver 80% reduction, some CO2 still escapes. An 80% target makes CCS attractive, but locks the uk into fossil fuel infrastructure that may make further cuts impossible. Zerocarbonbritain2030 reduces to zero nationally, without the need for international offsets. It can be done, with no magical technologies, we need the political will to make it happen.
  • Emissions could rise whilst we instal the infrastructure to allow more rapid decarbonisation later.
  • WE cant lurch from incremental cut to incremental cut. A small step here and a little change there really isnt going to solve this problem.
  • We havent built a successful opposing narrative to the current dominant one. Without a picture of this promised land of renewable energy and warm homes change will be difficult.
  • We havent built a successful opposing narrative to the current dominant one. Without a picture of this promised land of renewable energy and warm homes change will be difficult.
  • We havent built a successful opposing narrative to the current dominant one. Without a picture of this promised land of renewable energy and warm homes change will be difficult.
  • Report broken down into these chapters.
  • These are some of the major sectors we look at. Previously they’ve been siloed, and lots of fantastic work done looking at them in isolation. Zerocarbonbritain2030 explores the interactions between them. How do changes in one sector effect the others? How do they all work together to produce zero carbon.
  • Its not just carbon dioxide we dealt with, but methane and nitrous oxide. How these gases interact too.
  • The context of the report explores further synergies of thinking, This is not just environmental concern, but how climate mitigation will effect our energy and economic security. Based around triple bottom line theory - how does a changing climate effect your social stability and economic security. What will these coming pressures mean to international cooperation?
  • These are the figures that the government is working from. We believe that the risks associated with climate change require stronger action. We don’t know what the worst effects of climate change could be, so shouldn’t we try be more cautious? What if we overshoot and don’t make the target, then we’ll be in more trouble.
  • The size shows historical carbon emissions debt. How can we point a finger at the developing south and demand they decarbonise when we are responsible for the problem, and arent being ambitious ourselves?
  • The developing world most at risk from a destabilised climate through inability to adapt and protect communities and crops. They are already suffering the consequences of climate changed, a crisis for which they have had no part in creating. Britain has a carbon debt to repay. We’ve been burning fossil fuels for 150 years to aid our development, and it has made us into a wealthy nation. Now as a long industrialised country we are largely responsible for the climate crisis. We have the moral responsibility to the developing world to decarbonise more rapidly. This will allow them a shallower decarbonisation curve to give them the chance to develop and adapt to the changing climate.
  • The fossil fuel industry is responsible for massive environmental degradation, violence, war and poverty. Why would we not want to be rid of this energy source. Is this the pinnacle of our society? Is this the best we can do? Gouge it out the earth then blow it up? This is an addiction that’s slowly killing us, and killing our ecosystems.
  • The Energy gap in Britain is growing due to declining north Sea oil and gas. Since 2004 the UK is a net energy importer, and not by a small amount either. Over 50million tonnes of oil equivalent per year!
  • If you translate that into pounds, this is money pouring out of our economy. Almost 14 billion in 2008, and energy prices arent getting lower. How would our current governmental cuts be affected if this money was still within the UK. How would the UK survive a winter like this last one in 2030 if we havent dealt with this and supplies are even more scarce?
  • Our estimates for 2030 under current trends for energy prices come to a whopping £53 billion we’ll be paying for energy. This is money going from our pockets - as a consumer you’re paying through the nose for your energy - and to Russia, Qatar, and what could be increasingly unstable regimes as we are beholden to these countries to power our economy. It’s a rediculous arrangement.
  • We don’t use our energy wisely. The UK is still caught in an energy mindset of sometime around the 50’s when it was cheap. Our bills keep rising, we keep sourcing from increasingly unstable sources, but we can make massive efficiency gains. It will be so much easier to manage a shift to low carbon technologies with reduced demand. The measures we propose also help to smooth our demand cycles, create warmer more comfortable homes and generally increase wellbeing. 56% requires some very ambitious projects and changes, but noone said getting down to zero was going to be easy.
  • We start in the Built environment, which accounts for a over half of our total emissions. But looking at the state of our homes, this is a very inefficient sector.
  • Our solutions are based around the synergies of sectors, and demonstrates the interactions and holistic approach to decarbonisation needed. We recommend a massive increase in the use of natural materials. These materials have a much lower embodied energy - the energy needed to create them. Materials such as wood, rammed earth and hemp-crete have small environmental footprints, are non-toxic, and also have the added advantage of giving a home a warm and natural feel. But where do these materials come from? What are the added advantages of using them? How will this change effect the rest of the energy system? In our scenario we’ve connected the dots, such as between building and land use, and the sequestration potential of natural materials. By locking carbon away in buildings in the from of wood and biomass we’re mopping up residual emissions. Assuming a high carbon price, there could be the situation whereby you would be paid to use wood and lock away carbon. This will require a revitalisation of the rural economy as these important materials are grown. More on that later. Again connecting the dots in the next point. The war-time style effort of retrofitting and insulating will help boost our ailing job market, and create thousands of jobs for tradesmen, builders and the building industry. If I was your average builder I’d be in the front-line of the demonstrations, its going to mean a LOT of employment opportunities. So finish up your bacon butty and get your placard.
  • Swiftly on to transport. I do often think our system is rather archaic. In an age of satelite communication, CERN particle colliders and Big brother, why are we still exploding toxic substances. We’re like children with fire crackers. Surely we can come up with something better? The technology we use in our transport hasn’t changed since Henry Ford. When we talk about electric cars the days of the G-Whizz are over. Weird bubble cars out the Jetsons are outmoded. Our infatuation with beauty and speed can still be answered, but quietly and without the noxious smell. The technology is getting better, if we make a commitment to go in this direction, with the associated incentives to the industry and tax breaks to consumers, we could see very rapid leaps forward in making this technology a reality. Cleaner air, less noise, no massive tanker trucks on the roads, and free from the fluctuating oil prices that are beyond our control. This Sounds like a society I’d want to be part of. Again, theres lots of dots to connect up that we’ve explored. Where does the electricity come from? Can we deliver it? How much pressure does this put on the grid? What about heavy goods vehicles and their power requirements? I cant go into the detail of all these in this presentation, but this is how we should be thinking about decarbonisaiton. As a whole not lots of little parts.
  • Getting to zero is going to mean some difficult tradeoffs though. But we have tried to create a scenario that makes allowances for the global nature of our society. Aviation is the hot potato of climate mitigation. The resent trends in flying patterns can easily be reversed. Journeys can be made through high speed trains, and international long haul holidays will be less frequent but for a longer period. The use of biofuels is a contentious issue, as the rush into this fuel has contributed to global deforestation and food price rises. In our scenario, the use of biofuels assumes only locally produced energy crops, matched by changes to our diets through massive decreases in meat consumption (dealt with in the land use chapter). It is not a technology that can be pursued in isolation, but must be carefully planned so as not to have negative environmental effects.
  • Our 2030 society is healthier and happier. Transport is as much about town planning as actual travel. We choose our transport mode according to the structure of our environment. If the shops and work were closer, with more home days, and public transport systems are efficient and effective.
  • 100% renewables. No fossil fuels! It can be done, if we stop thinking about renewables as alternative technologies. We have the resources in Britain and europe to completely eliminate dirty fuels such as coal, oil and gas. This will generate jobs and revenue, keep us in control of our own energy supply and help stabilise prices.
  • 100% renewables. No fossil fuels! It can be done, if we stop thinking about renewables as alternative technologies. We have the resources in Britain and europe to completely eliminate dirty fuels such as coal, oil and gas. This will generate jobs and revenue, keep us in control of our own energy supply and help stabilise prices.
  • We must rethink our attitude towards the weather, this is our best energy supplier, and the regime that controls its arrival in our borders is much more stable than some oil producing countries. Britain has more offshore wind than we know what to do with. Recently estimated the size of our renewables resource as 2,100TWh. 2009 consumption was just below 400TWh. We havent even begun to exploit this resource. There is plenty of energy out there.
  • We must rethink our attitude towards the weather, this is our best energy supplier, and the regime that controls its arrival in our borders is much more stable than some oil producing countries. Britain has more offshore wind than we know what to do with. Recently estimated the size of our renewables resource as 2,100TWh. 2009 consumption was just below 400TWh. We havent even begun to exploit this resource. There is plenty of energy out there.
  • We must rethink our attitude towards the weather, this is our best energy supplier, and the regime that controls its arrival in our borders is much more stable than some oil producing countries. Britain has more offshore wind than we know what to do with. Recently estimated the size of our renewables resource as 2,100TWh. 2009 consumption was just below 400TWh. We havent even begun to exploit this resource. There is plenty of energy out there.
  • We have tailored the scenario around renewables that are suitable to Britain. Solar PV is not particularly effective here, but offshore wind is. It isnt a one size fits all system that we are promoting, but rather that each country looks at what technologies are most suited to its resources. This chart details only electricity supply. Nuclear is allowed to run till the end of its current life cycle, but no new nuclear generation capacity is built.
  • Looking at the total energy picture, offshore wind is roughly half total supply. The next biggest use will be heat pumps. Don’t forget that this energy mix is 100% renewable. There are NO fossil fuels in our vision.
  • This very complicated diagram is a Sankey diagram for our energy supply and demand. The thickness of the line indicates the no. of terawatt hours per source (left) to its end use (right). Note that the loses (bottom) are minimal
  • In our scenario Britain would become a net energy importer of up to 17% of our energy, and could earn £7bn annually. Compare this to the predicted £70 billion pouring out the country if we still rely on fossil fuels. Electricity will be our major supplier of energy. At present it’s a mix of gas, oil and coal. Whilst we will be decreasing overall energy demand, our electricity generation capacity will double. This will be largely due the electrification of the transport systems and space heating.
  • In our scenario Britain would become a net energy importer of up to 17% of our energy, and could earn £7bn annually. Compare this to the predicted £70 billion pouring out the country if we still rely on fossil fuels. Electricity will be our major supplier of energy. At present it’s a mix of gas, oil and coal. Whilst we will be decreasing overall energy demand, our electricity generation capacity will double. This will be largely due the electrification of the transport systems and space heating.
  • Where to rom here? What does zcb mean? It is a positive vision for a carbon free society. We’ve seen the doom and gloom from age of stupid and others. What has been lacking is a tangible idea of what a zero carbon society will be like, and why you would want to be part of it. At CAT we deal with positive solutions, not focus on negative causes.

zerocarbonbritain2030 general Presentation Transcript

  • 1.  
  • 2.  
  • 3.  
  • 4.  
  • 5.  
  • 6. In collaboration with…
  • 7. Universities
  • 8. Industry
  • 9. Research Centres
  • 10.
    • zero carbon britain 2030 is the first fully integrated solution to climate change.
    • It offers a positive , realistic vision grounded in the latest climate science.
    • It provides political, economic and technological solutions to the urgent challenges raised in tackling climate change
    What is zero carbon britain 2030
  • 11.
    • Big, structural change rather than small incremental reductions
    • No False Starts or dead ends
    • 80% target might mean we cant get to 100%
    • No Offsets, all local solutions
    • No Silver bullet technologies. We rely on established methods
    What is zero carbon britain 2030
  • 12.  
  • 13. We need a plan!!!
  • 14. Narrative
    • Stop climate chaos, don’t fly, don’t drive, turn off , climate Apocalypse , climate disaster
  • 15. Promised Land
  • 16. THE YAWNING CHASM POLITICAL REALISM PHYSICAL REALISM FURIOUS ACTIVITY ZCB
  • 17. A B Physically feasible decarbonised worlds You are here
  • 18.  
  • 19. Exploring synergy
  • 20. Scope: Greenhouse Gasses
  • 21.
    • Our wellbeing depends on:
    • Climate equity
    • Energy progressive
    • Economic stability
    • International cooperation
  • 22.
    • Global emissions must cut by 72% from 1990 levels by 2050 for an 84% chance of avoiding two degrees warming.
    • ( Meinshausen - 2009)
    Climate Equity
  • 23. Equity - taking a global lead
  • 24.
    • Britain, as a historical polluter, must make deeper, faster cuts to account for our ecological debt.
    • This allows developing countries shallower decarbonisation path
    Climate Equity
  • 25. Damage to the environment, security and livelihoods by the Fossil Fuel industry Energy Progressive
  • 26. Energy Security
  • 27. Economic Security
  • 28.
    • Estimates indicate replacing North Sea extraction with imports would add £53 billion to the UK annual trade deficit in 2030
    • In addition the Exchequer raised nearly £13 billion from offshore oil & gas in 2008
    Economic Security
  • 29.
    • 56% reduction in energy use by 2030
    • Sector by Sector:
      • Built environment
      • Transport
      • Land-use
      • Industry
      • Behaviour
  • 30.
    • Domestic approx 30% total emissions 2030 - reduce energy use (heating & lighting) by 80%
    • Non-domestic 25% of total emissions 2030 - 37% reduction in emissions
    UK Buildings are incredibly inefficient Built environment
  • 31.
    • Natural materials low embodied energy & sequestration
    • Insulating - large-scale retro-fit programme.
    • Heat pumps
    • Thermal Comfort woolley jumpers
    • Energy Service Companies (ESCO’s)
    Built environment
  • 32.
    • Change of energy source from fossil fuels
    • Electrification of cars, trains & LGV’s
    • Modal shift - private car to public transport, walking and cycling
    • Reduction in passenger km
    Electric cars get a makeover Transport - overview
  • 33.
    • No domestic aviation, 1/3 international on current levels
    • High speed electric train network
    • Indigenous bioenergy & hydrogen to power HGV’s and planes
    Why don’t we have these in the UK? Transport
  • 34. NOW 2030 Transport - modes (km)
  • 35.
    • Power Down - Sources of emissions related to land and how to reduce
    • Power Up - Use of land in a low carbon energy system
    Land use
  • 36.
    • Food - more local production of staples
    • Sequestration - forest sinks, timber for building
    • Fuel - for transport & backup
    Land use
  • 37.
    • 80% reduction of livestock products, particularly red meat and dairy
    • This mix closely matches the recommendations for a healthy diet
    Diet
  • 38. Land use emissions - now
  • 39. Land use emissions - zcb2030
  • 40.
    • Food security
    • Food quality
    • Biodiversity
    • Rural life and livelihoods
    Benefits
  • 41. Energy Archaic
  • 42.  
  • 43. Current energy system
  • 44.
    • All our energy needs, at all times, can be met with 100% renewables
    • We can meet the challenges of variability
    • We’ve only used proven technologies
    Powering up
  • 45.
    • Britain has 40% of Europe's renewable resource in offshore wind
    • What is the value of this resource?
    • It has the potential to inject billions of pounds into the UK economy
    Tomorrow £196,000 Powering up - offshore wind
  • 46. Tomorrow £196,000 Powering up - potential Source: PIRC Offshore Evaluation
  • 47.
    • Revitalisation of industry, resulting in thousands of jobs
    • Upgrading of ports
    • World leader in renewable technology
    • Exports of up to 17% earning £7bn annually
    Tomorrow £196,000 Powering up - offshore wind
  • 48. Offshore wind Delivered Electricity 2030
  • 49. Offshore wind Heat pumps Electricity , heat and transport 2030
  • 50.  
  • 51.
    • More stable & predictable energy price: not dependent on international markets & dwindling supply
    • No feedstock - more secure supply
    • Green jobs - hundreds of thousands in manufacture and service
    • Improved air quality
    Powering up - advantages
  • 52.
    • Demand-side management
    • New renewables capitalising mechanisms - upfront vs ongoing cost & discount rates
    • Changes to TNUoS, DNUoS & BSUoS - make beneficial for renewables
    • Variable electricity pricing - smart meters
    • Behavioural change - energy education
    Powering up - associated mechanisms
  • 53.
    • Smart grids
    • Limited use of biogas - expensive backup
    • EU Super-grid
    • Thermal-mass of building stock
    Variability managed by
  • 54.
    • High Voltage DC Grid
    • Linking up the offshore wind-farms
    • Also linking the winter wind to the summer sun
    EU Energy network
  • 55.
    • Not mutually inclusive with renewables
    • Effective for lower emissions reductions
    • Minimise losses (7%)
    • Can be expensive - system & storage
    • Need access to suitable renewables - warning: biofuels
    Micro-grids
  • 56. Heat
  • 57.
    • Internationally binding deal involving cap on emissions
    • High carbon price - £200 - £400/tonne CO2(e)
    • A mix of national policy options that allow equitable access to energy for all
    • Deliberate reconstruction of the UK economy to one that is stable, resilient and exists within the world’s ecological limits.
    Frame work - policy
  • 58.
    • Hundreds of thousands of new jobs
    • Builders, engineers, manufacturing
    • More predictable energy price
    • Setting a global lead ….
    Frame work - a Green New Deal
  • 59. Now 2030 Getting there…
  • 60.
    • Providing a positive vision for the future
    • Give shape to a renewable future
    • Develop the synergies between sectors
    • Plan for big infrastructural changes
    Report to reality
  • 61.