The Evolution of Broadband from Coverage to Quality
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The Evolution of Broadband from Coverage to Quality

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Discusses the increasing sophistication of network deployment strategies in the broadband age

Discusses the increasing sophistication of network deployment strategies in the broadband age

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  • 1. The Evolution of Broadband: From Coverage to Quality Robert Pepper Vice President Global Technology Policy 3 November 2008
  • 2. Four Stages of National Broadband Discussion
    • Availability/Coverage (supply)
    • Adoption (demand)
    • “ Speed”
    • Quality
  • 3. Communications: From telephony to connectivity/broadband Networks: the Fourth Essential Infrastructure Transport IP Networks Energy ( Power ) Water
  • 4. What we all want
    • Build on the success of the Internet
    • Ubiquitous broadband
    • Faster robust broadband networks
    • New innovative applications
    • Consumer/citizen benefits
    • Investment in networks and applications
  • 5. Growing Demand
  • 6. The Consumer in Control and Driving Demand Entire Internet Traffic Only 20 Homes 2010 “ By the year 2010… bandwidth for 20 homes will generate more traffic than entire Internet in 1995” 1995 Source: Cisco estimates, Ovum, Gartner, IDC, Merrill Lynch, MRG, MPA, Public company data
  • 7. Impact of Video on Internet Traffic 41% CAGR 2007-2012 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast, 2007-2012 GROWTH OF GLOBAL CONSUMER INTERNET TRAFFIC MIX 0 10,000 20,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PB/month Internet Video to TV Internet Video to PC VoIP Video Communications Gaming P2P Web/Data
  • 8. [Gbps] Efforts for Grasping Current Status of Internet Traffic in Japan , MIC Est. download traffic of broadband users in Japan Monthly average of daily traffic of Broadband customers (ADSL/CATV/FTTH) of major ISPs in Japan (ref.1) Monthly average of daily peak traffic exchanged at major IXs in Japan (ref.2) Monthly average of daily traffic exchanged at major IXs in Japan IP traffic in Japan grew 2.5 times in 3 years to estimated 812.9Gbps in Nov 2007
  • 9. Heavy Users Dominate Traffic
  • 10. Traffic Consumption Among Residential Broadband Users -- 10,000-fold variation Source : http://www.iepg.org/march2005/kjc-iepg200503.pdf 1% 5% 20% 50% 1 TB/Mo Avg = 8GB/Mo = 25Kbit/sec 1% => 225+ GB/Month 5% => 60+ GB/Month 20% => 7,5+ GB/Month 50% => 1+ GB/Month 90% Users are under the Avg
  • 11. Dimensions of Broadband: Quality Matters
  • 12. Dimensions of Broadband
    • Bandwidth—”speed”
    • Latency
    • Jitter
    • Symmetry
    • Bursting
    • Other…
  • 13. Not All Bits Are Created Equal “Speed” and Latency Bandwidth Low High High Low Telepresence Voice HD-IPTV Sensitive to Latency Streaming Audio Gaming (LD) Gaming (HD) Email Download Video Streaming Video
  • 14. Changing Requirements for Quality 2000 2005 2010 2015 Broadband Quality TWO WAVES OF BROADBAND SERVICES Source: California Broadband Task Force, Jan 2008; Cisco IBSG; Expert interviews; Oxford Team analysis, Aug 2008
    • Social networking
    • LD video streaming
    • Basic video chatting
    • Small file sharing
    • SD IPTV
    • Visual networking
    • HD video streaming
    • Consumer telepresence
    • Large file sharing
    • HD IPTV
    • Requirements
    • Download 3.75 Mbps
    • Upload 1 Mbps
    • Latency 95ms
    • Requirements
    • Download 11.25Mbps
    • Upload 5Mbps
    • Latency 60ms
    Today Tomorrow
  • 15. Broadband Quality Score (BQS)
    • BQS is calculated based on normalized values of:
      • Download and Upload throughput, and Latency
    • About 8million records sourced from actual tests from Speedtest.net (Ookla) during May 2008
    • Weights assigned to each factor for today’s and tomorrow ’s (3 to 5 years) applications.
    • BQS (today) = 55% Download + 23% Upload + 22%Latency
    • BQS (tmrw) = 45% Download + 32% Upload + 23%Latency
    Source: University of Oviedo; Delphi interviews; Oxford University Team Analysis, Aug 2008 BQS CALCULATION
    • BQS threshold: 32
    • Download 3.75 Mbps
    • Upload 1 Mbps
    • Latency 95ms
    • BQS threshold: 75
    • Download 11.25Mbps
    • Upload 5Mbps
    • Latency 60ms
  • 16. Country Broadband Quality Scores Source: Speed Test database, Expert Interviews, BQS Team Analysis, Aug 2008 Today’s applications BQS threshold: 32 Tomorrow’s applications BQS threshold: 75 BROADBAND QUALITY SCORE BY COUNTRY 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 BQI
  • 17. Impact of Quality and Penetration MAIN FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH BROADBAND QUALITY AND PENETRATION Source: Speed Test database; University of Oviedo and Oxford University Team Analysis, Aug 2008 * based on limited sample of ComScore data HIGH PENETRATION HIGH QUALITY
    • ICT Diffusion
    • Knowledge Economy
    • Web Usage*
    • Education
    • Fibre and upgraded cable
    • Innovation
    • Labour Productivity
    • Competitiveness
    • GDP/Capita
    • Technology Diversity
    • PCs/Capita
    DRIVING FACTORS IMPACT ON BROADBAND SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT
  • 18.