NGA - how to develop its full potential in the EU? IIC conference David Lewin 26th March 2009
Key questions <ul><li>Reasonable consensus on the central issue: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How to regulate so as to get timely...
What kind of investment can we expect? <ul><li>Global recession will delay NGA investment. But still important to get inve...
What kind of competition can we expect – 1? <ul><li>The nature of competition is shifting </li></ul><ul><li>Maximising val...
What kind of competition can we expect – 2? <ul><li>Cross-platform competition looks promising : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bet...
A model for NGA regulation to debate Measure Purpose Encourage co-investment in core fibre network fixed and mobile operat...
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Next generation access in Europe

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Discusses the strategy and policy options for deploying next generation broadband communications

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Transcript of "Next generation access in Europe"

  1. 1. NGA - how to develop its full potential in the EU? IIC conference David Lewin 26th March 2009
  2. 2. Key questions <ul><li>Reasonable consensus on the central issue: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How to regulate so as to get timely and efficient investment in NGA while... </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>... maintaining effective competition at the retail level </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Key questions: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What kind of investment can we expect? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What kind of competition can we expect? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What are the implications for effective regulation? </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. What kind of investment can we expect? <ul><li>Global recession will delay NGA investment. But still important to get investment incentives right </li></ul><ul><li>Many EU member states will focus more on availability and take-up of first generation broadband and leave NGA investment to the market </li></ul><ul><li>Most investment in NGA to date is by unregulated organisations </li></ul><ul><li>Is lack of regulatory certainty and commitment a problem? </li></ul><ul><li>Good prospects for major investment in mobile broadband but.. </li></ul><ul><li>...successful mobile broadband rollout will depend on: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Complementary fibre investment for backhaul </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Complementary use of WiFi with fixed NGA </li></ul></ul>Source: IDATE for FTTH Council
  4. 4. What kind of competition can we expect – 1? <ul><li>The nature of competition is shifting </li></ul><ul><li>Maximising value add from communications services in future will require (c ompetition driven): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovation in applications services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Investment in broadband access networks </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Are attempts to preserve competition in basic communications services getting in the way? </li></ul><ul><li>What form will competition driven investment in access networks take? </li></ul>
  5. 5. What kind of competition can we expect – 2? <ul><li>Cross-platform competition looks promising : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Between HSPA/LTE and fixed NGA: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>to serve rural areas </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>to serve urban customers with strong mobility needs and modest traffic generation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Between cable operators and NGA fixed incumbents: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>cable investing 23% of revenues (cf 14% for fixed incumbents) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>cable passes 50% of EU15 homes </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Access based competition looks less promising: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>SLU rarely commercially viable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GPON unbundling not practicable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Point-to-point fibre unbundling deters investment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Passive infrastructure sharing likely to lead to patchwork of monopolies </li></ul></ul>Finland Mobile voice Fixed voice Source: Nokia Siemens Networks <ul><li>Verizon and AT&T plan aggressive LTE rollout following $16 billion spectrum purchase </li></ul><ul><li>Telstra reached 98% coverage for its 3G network in 10 months and saw data revenues grow 37% </li></ul>
  6. 6. A model for NGA regulation to debate Measure Purpose Encourage co-investment in core fibre network fixed and mobile operators Minimises duplicated investment Let fixed and mobile operators compete to supply last mile access Creates a race to invest in broadband access networks Let local communities/end users own the last mile infrastructure Minimises investment risk for operators Allow access providers to close copper access networks while safeguarding consumers Increases attractiveness of NGA investment Require SMP access providers to supply active bitstream on equivalence conditions Enables competition driven innovation at applications and services level Do not price regulate this bitstream Increases attractiveness of NGA investment

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