Psychological Prediction:show me the moneyDavid Stillwell&Stephen HaggardChinwag Psych 9 May 2013
Scientific approach to personalitypredictionWe have published a unique and peer-reviewed method, based on large datasample...
What can we predict?
TraitIQHighThe GodfatherMozartThunderstormsThe Colbert ReportMorgan Freemans VoiceThe Daily ShowLord Of The RingsTo Kill A...
TraitParentsseparatedat21YesWhen Ur Single, All U See Is Happy Couples NWen Ur In A Relationship All U See Is HappySingles...
Case Study: Integrations to 3rdparty front ends using
Business ApplicationsofPsychological DataCRMSSP platformsBrand strategy
Relentless EnergyCampaign Strategy
Retain passion“no half measures”Red Bull, Lucozade etc -poachUse music heritageExpand from nichesMonster Energy –don’t har...
Energy Drinkers’ FB LikesLower and Upper age quartilesoceans thirteenflushed awaychicken runsaving the worldProchoicemakin...
Working with 100 billion Likes
“Relentless” Likers are in 3 Likes clusters.No other energy brands are with themTop footy (ManU, SkySports, Rooney)Bad die...
Likes data alone• support brand strategy• actionable• Clusters• social-dem dataoverlayLikes data with psychology data• Lik...
Music choice is a personality index
Find similar personalities
Music-Personality scaleDimension: opennessDimension: Openness(%)Low HighPeter AndreOne DirectionCher Lloyd28.9 34.5 42.3
Music-Personality scaleDimension: agreeablenessDimension: Agreeableness (%)Low HighBehemothDeicideDark FuneralGorgorothPhi...
Thank youDavid Stillwelldavid@mypersonality.orgStephen Haggardstephen@mypersonality.org
Chinwag psych slides 9 may 2013
Chinwag psych slides 9 may 2013
Chinwag psych slides 9 may 2013
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Chinwag psych slides 9 may 2013

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presentation of psychological data used in marketing at Chinwag Psych social media and technology conference London May 2013 by Stephen Haggard and David Stillwell of Cambridge Personality Research

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  • Easiest vs. hardest
  • Examples, and why
  • Explain CRM and SSP work and ROI/accuracy levels:R=0.4 in CRMUplift = 100% in SSP
  • Brand Ambassador Professor Green. Tatoo, live entertainmentTensions between several brand objectives – can we resolve them ?First – look at the Likes and how people who Liked these brands are distributed around the sample
  • What other likes most often turn up alongside Energy Drinkers’ Likes and how to analyse themEnergy drink universe – divides by age Lower and Upper quartile. Likes allow you to see the effects of any demographic data – here are some random ideas from the top 100 likes of Energy Drink Likers – it can give you ideasWe need some rigour so we divide the trillion odd likes in FB into clusters,and clusters of clusters
  • Universe of Likes clustered and decomposed into 200 groups of LikesSky Sport, Wayne Rooney, Man U, England Football Team – call it “Top male sport”Ignorecolourfornow, coming to that in a minute, this cluster plot can be shaded for any characteristic eg social-dem or psycho-dem (here:conscientiousness turquoise low pink high)
  • To find all the brand in just 3 clusters with no other competitor is useful granularity For example The Jeremy Clarkson segment (The Stig, Top Gear….) is where Monster drinkers are most represented – but only 20%.
  • Table to Compare all the energy drink brands for what Like clusters they turn up in.Relentless Likers occupy three clusters. Some brands are even more focussed, eg Burn totally on House, NOS totally on this US midmarket rap segment. Some are more diffused eg Red Bull less than half of its Likers can be seen in a behaviour cluster. This gives you some strategic possibilities that the competition doesn’t have. All your drinkers are in 3 clear places where no other brands in the segment are present. None of the others have that. These are all big and actualisable sectors with a lot of reach. Relentless can build out from these behavoiurs. Or it can contest other clusters. Maybe Dr House ? Or Jersey Shore ? (Lil Wayne = tattoos)In Red Bull, not only are less than half the Likers can be found in any identifiable cluster – the cluster they are in is also contested by a strong competitor. Let them slug it out for the Top Gear segment.
  • How do we get more ?The Likes data set a useful context and we can follow up in clusterings and view it with some of the resident FB data gender status etcBut the fun begins because we can add psychology to all that and really see other dimensions and patterns behind the Likes. TheLikes are telling us about who people are. We know this because everyone who’s told us their likes, has also told us all abouttheir personality.Here’s what they look like as people
  • Now add the psychological information from the surveysSimilarly fiddly bit of statistics to average and aggregate the effects Relentless likers – 65 have done me a personality survey
  • We can arrange all the music objects by overlap and put a layer of information about personality over themWhere you see similar colours clustering, that personality factor is predicting behaviour well. Here, agreeableness scores are not highly predictive. These guys are linked by shared habitsBut here, psychological similarity is a good link
  • Put Relentless and Monster in the map – Monster is in a different space, it is a small cluster of low AGR people in a predominantly high AGR music space. Hard to find closely connected music tastes for Relentless, though Monster can be helped by overlap, Relentless needs help from psychologyThe AGR score (blue: works alone, competitive) can be shared by different taste and behaviour groups
  • Better separation and more chance to hurt Red Bull without denting Monster
  • Transcript of "Chinwag psych slides 9 may 2013"

    1. 1. Psychological Prediction:show me the moneyDavid Stillwell&Stephen HaggardChinwag Psych 9 May 2013
    2. 2. Scientific approach to personalitypredictionWe have published a unique and peer-reviewed method, based on large datasamples and advanced statistical methods, for predicting personality attributes“digital records of behavior can be used toautomatically and accurately predict a rangeof highly sensitive personal attributes”March 2013
    3. 3. What can we predict?
    4. 4. TraitIQHighThe GodfatherMozartThunderstormsThe Colbert ReportMorgan Freemans VoiceThe Daily ShowLord Of The RingsTo Kill A MockingbirdScienceCurly FriesJason AldeanTyler PerrySephoraChiqBret MichaelsClark GriswoldBebeI Love Being A MomHarley DavidsonLady AntebellumLowOpennessLiberal&ArtisticOscar WildeCharles BukowskiSylvia PlathLeonardo Da VinciBauhausDmt The Spirit MoleculeAmerican GodsJohn WatersPlatoLeonard CohenNASCARAustin CollieMonster-In-LawI don’t readJustin MooreESPN2FarmlandiaThe BachelorOklahoma State UniversityTeen Mom 2ConservativeExtraversionOutgoing&ActiveBeerpongMichael JordanDancingSocializingChris TuckerI Feel Better TanModelingCheerleadingTheatreFlip CupRPGsFanfiction.NetProgrammingAnimeMangaVideo GamesRole Playing GamesMinecraftVoltaireTerry PratchetShy&Reserved
    5. 5. TraitParentsseparatedat21YesWhen Ur Single, All U See Is Happy Couples NWen Ur In A Relationship All U See Is HappySinglesNever Apologize For What You Feel It’s LikeSaying Sorry For Being RealI’m The Type Of Girl Who Can Be So Hurt ButStill Look At You & Smile The Type Of GirlWho Is Willing To Brighten Your Day Even If ICan’t Brighten My Own <3 <3We Don’t Talk Anymore And You Know WhatThe Saddest Part Is We Used To Talk EverydayCome Here Nope [Grab Yu Closer] Gimme AKiss Nope I’m Mad At Yu [Start Kissing]Tell Her She’s Pretty Hold Her Hand Kiss HerWhen She’s Angry Play With Her Hair Let HerFall Asleep In Your Arms Kiss Her In The RainTell Her You Love Her But Waitheres TheCatchyou Actually Have To Mean ItYou Need Anger Management Classes YouNeed Shut The Fukk Up ClassesIf I’m With You Then I’m With You I Don’tWant Anybody ElseBitch You Ain’t Pretty Your A Slut That’s WhyAll The Guys Talk To YouI’m Sorry I Love YouApples To Apples The Helen Keller CardDeliberately Driving Slower When BeingTailgatedWatching Peoples Lives Fall Apart Via StatusUpdates And News FeedsEvery Time I See You A Voice In My HeadGoes DooouuuuccccheeeMaking Dirty Innuendos Out Of PerfectlyInnocent ThingsGene WilderI Hate It When You’re With Mc Hammer AndHe Doesn’t Let You Touch AnythingI Immediately Look In My Rear-view MirrorWhen I Pass A CopThe Joy Of Painting With Bob RossNo
    6. 6. Case Study: Integrations to 3rdparty front ends using
    7. 7. Business ApplicationsofPsychological DataCRMSSP platformsBrand strategy
    8. 8. Relentless EnergyCampaign Strategy
    9. 9. Retain passion“no half measures”Red Bull, Lucozade etc -poachUse music heritageExpand from nichesMonster Energy –don’t harmGo biggerolder, pop
    10. 10. Energy Drinkers’ FB LikesLower and Upper age quartilesoceans thirteenflushed awaychicken runsaving the worldProchoicemaking people smilebrown universityplaying the drumsthai iced teacamerasmidnight cowboytime banditsstop human traffickingtibetan freedomboycott yellowstoneAspergers syndromevisit londonaromatherapybellydancingweird pictures
    11. 11. Working with 100 billion Likes
    12. 12. “Relentless” Likers are in 3 Likes clusters.No other energy brands are with themTop footy (ManU, SkySports, Rooney)Bad diet (Bacon butty, crumpets, alcohol)Classic metal (Iron Maiden, Slayer Band)=
    13. 13. Likes data alone• support brand strategy• actionable• Clusters• social-dem dataoverlayLikes data with psychology data• Likes reveal personalitytraits• Personality enriches brandanalysis• Additional actionable toolsSweat the Data
    14. 14. Music choice is a personality index
    15. 15. Find similar personalities
    16. 16. Music-Personality scaleDimension: opennessDimension: Openness(%)Low HighPeter AndreOne DirectionCher Lloyd28.9 34.5 42.3
    17. 17. Music-Personality scaleDimension: agreeablenessDimension: Agreeableness (%)Low HighBehemothDeicideDark FuneralGorgorothPhil WickhamKari JobeKim WalkerMisty Edwards18.8 47.1 56.8
    18. 18. Thank youDavid Stillwelldavid@mypersonality.orgStephen Haggardstephen@mypersonality.org

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