1. Future Ready: Frankenbooks, Social<br />Collaboration and Learning on Steroids<br />Stephen Abram, MLS<br />New York Library Association<br />Saratoga Springs NY<br />June 3, 2011<br />
2. Economic<br />Change <br />and <br />Challenges<br />These slides are available at Stephen’s Lighthouse blog<br />
3. We Only Get So Many Once-in-a-Lifetime Chances To Do Great Things<br />
4. Columbus, Cook, Magellan and Libraries: Searching for the corners of the earth, the edge of the oceans and discovering dragons ... <br />
5. -<br />
8. Magellan<br />Columbus<br />Cook<br />
11. Welcome<br />Questions for Today:<br />Is this the end of libraries as we know them?<br />Whither learning, community, support?<br />What is actually changing?<br />Do people still value the book? <br />Where is all this change taking us?<br />What is the role for librarians and all types of libraries in our info-future?<br />
14. What Colour is the Sky?<br />
15. So, what exactly is changing? <br />In a word:<br />Everything connected to your world!<br />Books<br />Media<br />Mobility<br />Collections<br />Libraries<br />
16. What has changed?<br /><ul><li> Libraries at the heart of the campus
17. Students are focused at the lesson and event (essay, test, exam) level
18. Libraries at the heart of the community is no longer just physical
19. Libraries as whole school partners
20. Physical access and basic reading evolves to intellectual access with new competencies</li></li></ul><li>Skip to the End: Why listen to me?<br /><ul><li>School libraries raise standardized test scores 15-25%!
21. School library / Public library partnerships increase scores 5% plus!
22. Libraries and information content and technology leadership are critical to Higher Ed
23. Communities with libraries as an investment receive very high ROI – average 650%!
24. There are more libraries than McDonalds & Starbucks combined with better distribution and staffing models for government services</li></li></ul><li>Grocery Stores<br />
25. Grocery Stores<br />
26. Grocery Stores<br />
28. Cookbooks, Chefs . . .<br />
29. Cookbooks, Chefs . . .<br />
30. Meals<br />
31. Chefs, counsellors, teachers, magicians<br />Librarians play a vital role in building the critical connections between information , knowledge and learning.<br />
55. The new bibliography and collection development<br />KNOWLEDGE PORTALS<br />KNOWLEDGE,<br />LEARNING,<br />INFORMATION &<br />RESEARCH<br />COMMONS<br />
58. Bricks, Clicks and Tricks Gambling<br />
59. Emerging Tech that Drives Users to the Library<br /><ul><li>Content Farms, Mills (Demand Media, AOL, etc.)
61. HighBeam & Questia
63. AccessMyLibrary iPhone App for public, school and higher ed – iPhone, iPad, iTouch and Droid!
64. Geo-IP features and measures
65. Watch for more . . .</li></li></ul><li>Social Glue and Libraries<br />
66. Very Big Secret<br />The Elephant in the Room<br />
67. Change can happen very fast<br />
68. Sensemaking<br />
69. 5 Things have Changed . . A LOT! <br />Cardholders, Users, Members, Patrons, Clients, Customers, Learners, Students, Scholars, Researchers, Teachers, Professors<br />Books & Media & Collections<br />Mobility<br />Learning & Research<br />Government<br />The History of Unintended Consequences & Unpredictability<br />
70. “Strategy is a Choice. . .<br />To be a victim and feel these changes are fated and blamestorm<br />OR<br />Create the future we need and take collective responsibility for the conversation and development of the future.”<br />Find Reasons not Excuses.<br />
71. As technology advances<br />
72. Emboldened Librarians hold the key<br />
73. The nasty facts about Google & Bing and consumer search:<br />SEO<br />Content Farms<br />Advertiser driven<br />Geotagging<br />GOOG<br />
74. News Flash <br /> “The Internet and technology have now progressed to their infancy”<br />
78. People are Changing<br /><ul><li>Demographic– Millennials, Boomers, Seniors
79. Overall IQ Increases
80. Increased educational attainment & engagement
81. eBooks outsell hard cover books & paperbacks
82. Reading is UP, way up.
83. Some libraries are crediting most cardholder growth to e-book accessibility
84. Personal device proliferation
85. Some sectors are very tech-dominated (oil, farming, cattle, trucking, mining, forestry, …)</li></li></ul><li>NextGen Differences<br /><ul><li>Increase in IQ - 15-20 Points
86. Brain & Developmental Changes
87. Eye Movement Changes
88. Massive Behavioural Changes
89. Major Decline in Crime Rates – down 65%
90. But still a 70% behavior overlap with Boomers (see my book chapter)</li></li></ul><li>People Have Changed<br /><ul><li>Twitter & Facebook are dominated by the middle-aged
91. Gaming too. . . Mothers in their 30’s
92. Social networks fastest growing populations are seniors and will be more international and less urban and English.
93. eBook reader usage is largely middle-aged.
94. Mobile data usage is growing beyond youth very quickly, workplace use is huge </li></li></ul><li>We often believe a lot that isn’t true.<br />What We Never Really Knew Before (US/Canada)<br /><ul><li>27% of our users are under 18.
95. 59% are female.
96. 29% are college students.
97. 5% are professors and 6% are teachers.
98. On any given day, 35% of our users are there for the very first time!
99. Only 29% found the databases via the library website.
100. 59% found what they were looking for on their first search.
101. 72% trusted our content more than Google.
102. But, 81% still use Google.</li></li></ul><li>2010 Eduventures Research on Investments<br /><ul><li>58% of instructors believe that technology in courses positively impacts student engagement.
103. 71% of instructors that rated student engagement levels as “high” as a result of using technology in courses.
104. 71% of students who are employed full-time and 77% of students who are employed part-time prefer more technology-based tools in the classroom.
105. 79% of instructors and 86 percent of students have seen the average level of engagement improve over the last year as they have increased their use of digital educational tools.
106. 87% of students believe online libraries and databases have had the most significant impact on their overall learning.
107. 62% identify blogs, wikis, and other online authoring tools while 59% identify YouTube and recorded lectures.
108. E-books and e-textbooks impact overall learning among 50% of students surveyed, while 42% of students identify online portals.
109. 44% of instructors believe that online libraries and databases will have the greatest impact on student engagement.
110. 32% of instructors identify e-textbooks and 30% identify interactive homework solutions as having the potential to improve engagement and learning outcomes. (e-readers was 11%)
111. 49% of students believe that online libraries and databases will have the greatest impact on student engagement.
112. Students are more optimistic about the potential for technology.</li></li></ul><li>Have Students Changed?<br />
115. YES (duh!)<br />
116. So how must library and educator strategies change?<br />
117. Discovery & Ideas<br />
118. Has the future changed?Has our future changed?<br />
120. COWS, etc.<br />
124. The Future Discovered<br /><ul><li>Stem Cells
125. fMRI and The Brain
127. Trucking and GPS
128. Wind and other energy
131. Massive Book Digitization
134. Streaming Media
135. Seed Bank</li></li></ul><li>
136. A 1965 iPhone<br />
137. Can libraries keep up with change?<br />Can you recall buying a 45?<br />Can you recall dials on TVs?<br />Can you recall dialling?<br />
138. Formats have died before.<br />
139. Books<br />
140. We have a shallow understanding of the Codex – the book format(s)Transition from scrolls – illumination – codex – and beyond<br />
141. How would you enhance the book without the compromises of the 1500’s?<br />
147. What does all this mean?<br /><ul><li>The Article level universe
148. The Chapter and Paragraph Universe
149. Integrated with Visuals – graphics and charts
150. Integrated with ‘video’
151. Integrated with Sound and Speech
152. Integrated with social web
153. Integrated with interaction and not just interactivity
154. How would you enhance a book?</li></li></ul><li>
161. Borders Kobo, B&N Nook, Amazon Kindle, Apple iPad, Sony, etc. . . . <br />
165. Mobility<br />
167. Broadband<br /><ul><li>You must clearly understand the latest US FCC Whitespace Broadband Decision – THIS IS TRANSFORMATIONAL and going global
168. Net neutrality, kill switches . . .
169. Local wired, mobile access ‘everywhere’ to the home and workplace on a personal basis
170. Geo-awareness: GIS, GPS, GEO-IP, etc.
171. Wireless as a business strategy (Starbucks)
172. Mobile dominates the largest generation</li></li></ul><li>What changes with personal devices?<br />
173. Device Issues<br />
174. The Physical Act of Reading<br />
185. Can we frame the e-book issue so that it can be addressed rationally?<br />
186. MindMap: What is a book?<br />Reading<br />Reading<br />Learning<br />Pedagogy<br />Research<br />Exploration<br />Reference<br />Engagement<br />Enjoyment<br />Evaluation<br />
187. MindMap: What is a book?<br />Reading<br />Learning<br />Pedagogy<br />Research<br />Exploration<br />Reference<br />Engagement<br />Enjoyment<br />Evaluation<br />
192. Books <br />
193. Fiction<br />
194. Non-Fiction<br />
195. Encyclopedia<br />
196. Reference<br />
197. Directories<br />
198. Dictionaries<br />
199. Textbooks<br />
200. E-Learning<br />
201. Steal <br />This <br />Idea<br />
202. What are the<br />good and bad<br />things about<br />e-books?<br />
203. Library Goals<br />Be the Bee<br />Or Be the Hive.<br />Care.<br />
204. Strategic Thinking for Libraries<br />Choosing a Future<br />Setting Phased Priorities<br />Making Choices<br />Taking Action<br />Doing the Next Step<br />Adjusting Tactics with Experience<br />Seeking Feedback and Adjusting<br />Measuring Progress<br />
205. Choosing Top Priorities <br /><ul><li>Suppose that in three years:
206. Majority of library use will be virtual – yes even rural! And especially academic courses.
207. Majority of Non-fiction Book circulation will be e-books and Fiction will split 50/50 – digital/print
208. All learning will be blended and continuous
209. DVD is circulation is dead and most other physical formats in decline.
210. Majority of questions will be virtual
211. Use will be 20 / 40 / 40 (in house, virtual, mobile)
212. Every user will be socially networked, connected and engaged</li></li></ul><li>What do we <br />need to know?<br />What are <br />we going <br />to do next? <br />
213. Steal <br />This <br />Idea<br />
214. StrategicAnalytics<br />
216. What do we need to know?<br /><ul><li>How do library databases and virtual services compare with other web experiences?
217. Who are our core virtual users? Are there gaps?
218. Does learning happen? How about discovery?
219. What are user expectations for true satisfaction?
220. How does library search compare to consumer search like Google and retail or government?
221. How do people find and connect with library virtual services?
222. Are end users being successful in their POV?
223. Are they happy? Will they come back? Tell a friend?</li></li></ul><li>
224. Unlocking the Library Value Conversation<br />
225. Don’t Rest on Your Laurels.<br />
226. Reintermediation<br />
227. Stand Out!<br />
228. Trust Yourself to Make Difference and Have an Impact<br />
229. You have the tools.<br />
230. Stop Making it so Hard!<br />
231. Save the User! <br />
232. Serve Everyone!<br />
249. Unlocking the Library Value Conversation<br />
250. What Would You Attempt If You Knew You Would Not Fail?<br />
252. Choosing Top Priorities <br /><ul><li>Suppose that in three years:
253. Majority of library use will be virtual – yes even rural! And especially academic courses.
254. Majority of Non-fiction Book circulation will be e-books and Fiction will split 50/50 – digital/print
255. All learning will be blended and continuous
256. DVD is circulation is dead and most other physical formats in decline.
257. Majority of questions will be virtual
258. Use will be 20 / 40 / 40 (in house, virtual, mobile)
259. Every user will be socially networked, connected and engaged</li></li></ul><li>20th Century Strategies<br /><ul><li>Inventory and Collections
262. Reading is Fundamental
266. Privacy</li></li></ul><li>21st Century Strategies<br /><ul><li>Content Access
267. Bricks and Clicks and Tricks
268. Communities of Knowledge and Practice
269. Research Impact
271. Information Literacy Programs
272. Social links and Student Life</li></li></ul><li>What Are Libraries Really For?<br /><ul><li>Community
276. Research (Applied and Theoretical)
277. Cultural & Knowledge Custody
278. Economic Impact </li></li></ul><li>
280. 20th Century Strategies<br /><ul><li>Inventory and Collections
283. Reading is Fundamental
287. Privacy</li></li></ul><li>21st Century Strategies<br /><ul><li>Content Access
288. Bricks and Clicks and Tricks
289. Communities of Knowledge and Practice
290. Research Impact
292. Information Literacy Programs
293. Social links and Student Life</li></li></ul><li>Bricks, Clicks and Tricks Gambling<br />
294. Social Glue and Libraries<br />
295. A Third Path<br />
296. Observe Your Users<br />
297. Context is King,Contact trumps Culture Content is a Foundation<br />