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Financial analysis of potential factors that could drive the current and future cab fleet in NY, in light of PlaNYC 2030

Financial analysis of potential factors that could drive the current and future cab fleet in NY, in light of PlaNYC 2030

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Taxi of Tomorrow Taxi of Tomorrow Presentation Transcript

  • Taxi  of  Tomorrow Where are we going? Carlos Coello Jessica Esposito Scott Miller Chuck Samul Stefano Vrespa Spring 2012
  • A g e n d a•  Background•  Financial Analysis•  Environmental Analysis•  Taxi of Yesterday?•  Our Conclusions•  The Wild Card•  Food for Thought
  • Background•  History•  Stakeholders •  New York City •  TLC •  Riders •  Drivers •  Owners •  Handicapped •  Car Manufacturers
  • t h e fl e e t F O R D “ C r o w n V i c t o r i a ” - 5 8 % F l e e t FORD “Escape Hybrid” - 26% Fleet T O Y O TA “ S i e n n a” - 9 % F l e e tTOYOTA “Camry” - 4% FleetTOYOTA “ Pr i u s” - 2 % Fl e e t “Taxi of Tomorrow” NISSAN “NV200” – 100% (2016)
  • t h e fl e e t To y o t a “Prius” – 51 MPG FORD “Escape Hybrid” – 34 MPG TOYOTA “ C a m r y” – 2 2 M P GTOYOTA “Sienna” – 17 MPGFORD “Crown Victoria” - 16 MPG “Taxi of Tomorrow” NISSAN “NV200” – 25 MPG
  • Fi n a n c i a l A n a l y s i s•  5 vehicle models o  Mileage per gallon (16 – 51) o  64,600 average miles per year o  Maintenance and repair costs ($3200 to $4900) o  Straight line depreciation o  Salvage value = $0•  4 ownership models o  Cab lifespan = 3 to 5 years     1 .   O w n e r   O p e r a t e d   o n l y o  Gas cost (owner - driver)                          2.  Owner  Operated  and  leased o  Shift duration and Drivers per cab             3 .   F l e e t -­‐‑ t y p e   •  Future vehicle                 4.   Long-­‐‑term   lease   o  Same as the current fleet models
  •                      Data Fi n a n c i a l A n a l y s i s Ownership  Model                                Taxi  type                                  
  • Fi n a n c i a l A n a l y s i s  $200,000    $180,000   NPV  -­‐‑  5  years  -­‐‑  1  car  $160,000   Ownership  models  $140,000   NPV  -­‐‑  Owner  Operated NPV  -­‐‑  Fleet  Type NPV  -­‐‑  Long  term  leasing  $120,000    $100,000    $80,000   FORD   FORD   TOYOTA   TOYOTA   TOYOTA   NISSAN   "ʺCrown   "ʺEscape"ʺ "ʺPrius"ʺ "ʺSienna"ʺ "ʺCamry"ʺ NV200 Victoria"ʺ
  • “Medallion lease model” How  it  works Medallion owner leases right to use medallion o  Benefits: •  Revenue certainty •  Lower business riskDriver leases medallion and owns the car o  Still pays for gas o  Benefit: •  Drives incentive to raise the number of Hybrids – Lower emissions
  • “Medallion lease model” The  result Using the most favorable conditions: o  Lowest Net Income among “Fleet type” or “Long term lease” ownership model o  Taxi with highest NPV o  Minimum gross revenue driverIncentives required
  • Environmental impacts•  Assumptions o  Owner operated: •  “Prius” and “Escape” o  Linear phase out of current fleet o  “Non explosive phase out” o  Transition to NV200 starting in 2013•  Data inputs Just  a  bunch  of  numbers  (CO2  equiv./mile) o  Miles per gallon o  Grams of CO2 equiv. per mile o  Average miles per cab per year C r o w n   V i c t o r i a     4 9 4                   P r i u s       1 9 3       We i g h t e d   Av e r a g e       4 2 5   N i s s a n   N V 2 0 0     4 3 1
  • Environmental Impacts  8,000    14,000    7,000    12,000   #  of  taxis  currently  in  operation  6,000   Taxi  Model  10,000    #  of  Nissan  NV200 FORD  "ʺCrown  Victoria"ʺ  5,000    8,000   FORD  "ʺEscape"ʺ  4,000   TOYOTA  "ʺPrius"ʺ TOYOTA  "ʺSienna"ʺ  6,000    3,000   TOYOTA  "ʺCamry"ʺ NISSAN  NV200  4,000    2,000    2,000    1,000    -­‐‑        -­‐‑       2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
  • Environmental Impacts ?  400,000    356,000    350,000    354,000   Tons  CO2  equiv.  /  Taxi  model Taxi  Model Total  Tons  CO2  equiv.  300,000    352,000   FORD  "ʺCrown  Victoria"ʺ  250,000    350,000   FORD  "ʺEscape"ʺ  200,000   TOYOTA  "ʺPrius"ʺ  348,000   TOYOTA  "ʺSienna"ʺ  150,000   TOYOTA  "ʺCamry"ʺ  346,000   NISSAN  NV200  100,000   total  CO2  eq.  emission  344,000    50,000    -­‐‑        342,000   2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
  • Taxi of Yesterday?
  • Our ConclusionsEconomic Sense To:1.  Prefer Long-term leasing model2.  Choose hybrid for Owner-driven model Makes No Economic Sense To:1.  invest in hybrid if not Owner-operated2.  To switch to Nissan NV200 Lack of Incentives:For the “Medallion lease model”Taxi of Tomorrow will increase Green House Gas emissions
  • e Wild Car(d)Nissan  Leaf  Electric  Vehicle  Pilot  Program  (2012) Nissan  e-­‐‑NV200  Fleet  (available  2017  +)
  • Food for thought “Taxi of Tomorrow” NISSAN “NV200” – 25 mpg “Yellow” NV200 – 1.5dCi (EU version) – 54.3 mpg
  • Thank  you Carlos Coello Jessica Esposito Scott Miller Chuck Samul Stefano Vrespa Spring 2012