Commercialization
challenges of software
development in a
fragmented mobile
ecosystem



        WiTec Connections   Steph...
We broker crowd-sourced relationships to make mobile software better
    Our testing community includes more than 8,600 ha...
The Big Picture
i.e. Macro-Economic Environment


   “Much Ado About Something”
3.3B mobile
handset users
• 6 out of every 10 people in the
    world have a mobile handset
•   4B subscriptions; 18% of p...
Where is everybody?
                                                                         http://www.tomiahonen.com/


...
Where are new subscriptions coming from?
• Many markets saturated (top 5: Italy:153%, Greece, Hong Kong, Portugal, Israel)...
From “no phone” to “cell phone.”
Of the 280M people with phones in
Africa, 260M of them use mobile
handsets.
A Trillion Dollar Industry                                                       http://www.tomiahonen.com/

• $800M is se...
Mobile is the “7th Mass Media”: Scope + Content
•   The only media generation that can replicate all the benefits of the ot...
Fragmented Mobile Ecosystem
How does fragmentation affect the customer?
Yikes!




The Frankenstein Effect of Fragmentation
•   This happened to me the week Blackberry App World launched. http:/...
This is not a good user experience ... where’s the [Not OK] button?
 After I downloaded/installed Google Talk, my Bold had...
Buy from    Buy something
    Company / Product     Business    Price   Recommend?                                        ...
(He’s just being honest ... and all
                                        vendors face the same issue)
“Expect more bugs...
Fragmentation is the inability to
  “write once and run anywhere.”

 More formally, it is the inability to develop an appl...
All Operating Contexts? That’s a lot.
• Games publisher, GLU.com, made 25,000 different builds for their Transformers mobi...
Fragmentation is a result of the
permutations and combinations of:
Mobile Ecosystem
 • Handset diversity
 • Software diver...
http://www.tomiahonen.com/

Handset manufacturer market share
•   1B handsets sold in 2008
•   Nokia sells 1M handsets a d...
About 20,000 different handsets worldwide
Each handset
can have up to
1,500 different
specifications
• screen size & video resolution
• processor performance, memory...
Over 25 O/S’s platforms, middleware, and frameworks
• Differences in platform/OS (Symbian, Nokia OS, RIM OS, Apple OS X, P...
http://www.slideshare.net/lis186/smartphone-market-trends
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators




Over 750+ Operators Worldwide
• Operator’s environmental...
What about Mobile 2.0?
It’s not Web 2.0, but it is browser based,
just like your PC internet surfing. Sort of.

 And, it’s ...
If *Last Name is mandatory,
                                                   shouldn’t I see a field so I can
           ...
http://www.tomiahonen.com/




More people access the internet
through mobile handsets
(1.02B) than PC’s (940M).

Within 2...
http://quirksmode.org/m/table.html




Significant differences in HTML handling between browsers
Fragmented Mobile Ecosystem
             (The Shape of Things to Come)




                  http://www.youtube.com/watch?...
Commercialization
 Industry Trends
i.e. Herein lies opportunity
Handset manufacturers
are feeling pinched



                              • Slowing handset sales due
                   ...
However, in Q4 2008, there was a ray of sunshine
 While feature phones declined by 6% YOY, smartphones, data and applicati...
With apps, Apple has shown the way. But it’s still V0.9
•   Released July, 2008
•   In less than one year, 1 Billion downl...
How much can a developer make?
•   Perhaps very little. First 30 days on Apple App Store is crucial.
•   Or, a lot. After ...
2009 is
 “The Year of Mobile”
• Mobile Handsets vs. PC’s
   • Hurry ... release analog TV spectrum! The
     Gold Rush for...
The global demand for mobile
  apps is just starting; and it’s
      not just about iFart.
                i.e. Developers...
http://www.cellular-news.com/story/35940.php




                                                  http://www.abiresearch....
First Monday of every Month
                          at Metropolitan Grill in
                                Mount Royal...
Thank you!
Stephen King
                             Want to know more about Mob4Hire?
stephen@mob4hire.com         View a...
Attributions




                                     Teemu Kurppa
Jason Grigsby                                          ...
Commercialization Challenges Of Mobile Software Development In A Fragmented Mobile Ecosystem (Stephen King Mob4Hire @ WiTec)
Commercialization Challenges Of Mobile Software Development In A Fragmented Mobile Ecosystem (Stephen King Mob4Hire @ WiTec)
Commercialization Challenges Of Mobile Software Development In A Fragmented Mobile Ecosystem (Stephen King Mob4Hire @ WiTec)
Commercialization Challenges Of Mobile Software Development In A Fragmented Mobile Ecosystem (Stephen King Mob4Hire @ WiTec)
Commercialization Challenges Of Mobile Software Development In A Fragmented Mobile Ecosystem (Stephen King Mob4Hire @ WiTec)
Commercialization Challenges Of Mobile Software Development In A Fragmented Mobile Ecosystem (Stephen King Mob4Hire @ WiTec)
Commercialization Challenges Of Mobile Software Development In A Fragmented Mobile Ecosystem (Stephen King Mob4Hire @ WiTec)
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Commercialization Challenges Of Mobile Software Development In A Fragmented Mobile Ecosystem (Stephen King Mob4Hire @ WiTec)

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My presentation of Commercialization Challenges of Mobile Application Devlopment in a Fragmented Mobile Ecosystem, which includes 20,000 handsets, 25 different OS's/Platforms and 750+ carriers. LOTS of graphs and data for mobile app developers, and some mobile industry trends.

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Commercialization Challenges Of Mobile Software Development In A Fragmented Mobile Ecosystem (Stephen King Mob4Hire @ WiTec)

  1. Commercialization challenges of software development in a fragmented mobile ecosystem WiTec Connections Stephen King, CEO Mob4Hire Inc. Banff, Canada April, 2009 stephen@mob4hire.com (with stern-looking Paul Poutanen, President & Founder :)
  2. We broker crowd-sourced relationships to make mobile software better Our testing community includes more than 8,600 handsets in 100 countries on 277 operators 1 “Mob4Hire.com” Testers bid on projects uploaded by mobile developers and provide both functional and usability testing in-market. Real people on real handsets with real opinions on live networks. 2 “Mob4Hire as a Platform” lets developer networks and app stores create their own branded crowd-sourced customer feedback communities http://www.o2litmus.co.uk “O2 Litmus ground breaking partnership with multi-award winning Mob4hire” O2 Litmus press release: http://www.ixplora.com/?p=3593 “O2 Litmus is Better than Apple AppStore!” http://www.telco2.net/blog/2009/02/getting_developer_communities.html
  3. The Big Picture i.e. Macro-Economic Environment “Much Ado About Something”
  4. 3.3B mobile handset users • 6 out of every 10 people in the world have a mobile handset • 4B subscriptions; 18% of people (700M) have two subscriptions. http://www.tomiahonen.com/
  5. Where is everybody? http://www.tomiahonen.com/ • North American adoption and usage is distinctly different than other continents • European handsets and subscriptions are often separate purchases; SIMs interchangeable, much more operator competition
  6. Where are new subscriptions coming from? • Many markets saturated (top 5: Italy:153%, Greece, Hong Kong, Portugal, Israel): new subs slowing • U.S. at 84%, Canada at 61% (the only country < 80% that’s NOT a developing nation) • Still lots of growth for new users in developing nations http://www.tomiahonen.com/
  7. From “no phone” to “cell phone.” Of the 280M people with phones in Africa, 260M of them use mobile handsets.
  8. A Trillion Dollar Industry http://www.tomiahonen.com/ • $800M is services; Voice is still the “killer app” • SMS message revenue is 25 times bigger than ALL PC messaging (IM, email, etc...) • At $71B, Content partners (applications, movies, ringtones) is bigger than all paid content on internet
  9. Mobile is the “7th Mass Media”: Scope + Content • The only media generation that can replicate all the benefits of the other six • The first personal media channel, permanently carried and always on: “Intimate” • Built-in payment channel • Point of creativity “eyewitness,” enabling user-generated content • Special thanks to Tomi Ahonen: Near-perfect audience data http://www.tomiahonen.com/ • Social and location context of media consumption
  10. Fragmented Mobile Ecosystem How does fragmentation affect the customer?
  11. Yikes! The Frankenstein Effect of Fragmentation • This happened to me the week Blackberry App World launched. http://www.blackberry.com/appworld • My Carrier is Rogers Wireless in Canada. • My handset is a Blackberry Bold. The above picture is what it usually looks like. • I downloaded a few apps including Google Talk • The free Google Talk downloaded ok. But when it rebooted my system, my Bold started spewing error messages like “java exception.” Lots of them! See next slide.
  12. This is not a good user experience ... where’s the [Not OK] button? After I downloaded/installed Google Talk, my Bold had errors & reset to default Rogers O/S footprint. Background is gone as are all my photos. Icons are moved (some programs are missing). The keyboard #’s wouldn’t work, only the QWERTY letters. The “airplane” mode icon is missing. SMS’s and Emails in both inbox and sent items are gone. Email config is gone. Kept my contacts, WiFi and weather settings intact, though. WARNING!!! PAINFUL!!! Who should I blame?
  13. Buy from Buy something Company / Product Business Price Recommend? Why? you again? else from you? It’s actually awesome. But, now I don’t Blackberry App World App Store Free Yes, but ... Yes Yes trust it quite as much after the crash. Love my Bold (Pearl before that)... more Blackberry Bold $$ Evangelize Yes Yes productive (keyboard) & less data costs than iPhone. There’s an app store now. Not related to Bold crash, so I don’t Rogers Operator $$$$ Neutral Probably Probably blame them; consumers will, though OMG!!! Google Talk (IM) Free NONONO Yes Yes Reset my whole system. Recognizes songs from your stereo or www.shazam.com Shazam Free Evangelize Yes Yes radio. Love it!!! Incomplete: Doesn’t list the same events Ticketmaster Event sales Free No Maybe Maybe and concerts as web. It’s ok. There’s better RSS readers that News ‘n Information Week Free Neutral No Maybe do the trick (Viigo) stuff Ugh. Bad port. Graphics, gameplay and Gameloft’s Puzzle $7 No No No navigation don’t take advantage of the Brain Challenge Game platform. It’s not really that fun. Travel Great for traveling, and also for doing Worldmate Live Free Evangelize Yes Yes international business assistance Games oad fast & good gameplay. www.magmic.com Games $7 Sure Yes Yes Bought “Chizzles” and “Hold’em 3.0” Texas Hold ‘em What are your customers saying about you? Evangelize? Neutral? Criticize? Make Better Software = Customer Advocacy = Reduced Churn + More Customers = $$$ Customer Advocacy of brand and product is directly related to company growth and profit. With thanks to Dr. Bob Hayes, Ph.D. http://www.businessoverbroadway.com
  14. (He’s just being honest ... and all vendors face the same issue) “Expect more bugs” Companies of all shapes, sizes, Paraphrased from RIM co-CEO: talent and resources are are Jim Balsillie, Jan 2009 struggling with fragmentation; this is a hard problem to solve. http://www.engadget.com/2009/01/26/ rim-ceo-buggy-smartphone-software-is- But customers don’t care! the-new-reality/ They just want it to work.
  15. Fragmentation is the inability to “write once and run anywhere.” More formally, it is the inability to develop an application against a reference operating context (OC) and achieve the intended behavior in all OCs suitable for the application. http://www.comp.nus.edu.sg/~damithch/df/device-fragmentation.htm
  16. All Operating Contexts? That’s a lot. • Games publisher, GLU.com, made 25,000 different builds for their Transformers mobile game. There were 21,000 different builds for Europe alone. • On average, mobile developers are creating 400 different builds • Google Maps targeted 10 mobile platforms, created 100 different builds, and the boss wanted it yesterday. http://www.pocketgamer.co.uk/r/Mobile/Glu/news.asp?c=5086 http://developers.sun.com/mobility/reference/techart/design_guidelines/overview.html
  17. Fragmentation is a result of the permutations and combinations of: Mobile Ecosystem • Handset diversity • Software diversity: • O/S diversity (platforms, middleware, widgets) • Standards implementation diversity (“According to the standard, this should work ...”) • Mobile 2.0 browser diversity (internet websites optimized for mobile phones) • Operator / Environmental diversity Developer or Regional • Feature variations, such as light version vs full version (related to business model) • User-preference diversity, in aspects such as in language, style, etc., or accessibility requirements http://www.comp.nus.edu.sg/~damithch/df/device-fragmentation.htm
  18. http://www.tomiahonen.com/ Handset manufacturer market share • 1B handsets sold in 2008 • Nokia sells 1M handsets a day (well ... not in Q1, 2009) • Most desired feature driving new phone sales is the built-in camera and it’s resolution • 30 companies in the next tier (RIM, Apple, ZTE, Kyocera, Sharp, Palm, etc...) each have a share of <2%
  19. About 20,000 different handsets worldwide
  20. Each handset can have up to 1,500 different specifications • screen size & video resolution • processor performance, memory size, accessibility • firmware versions • SMS/MMS handling • network (2G, 2.5G, 3G) • keyboard layouts / functions • additional interface components (e.g. trackballs, wheels, joysticks, directional keys, stylus, touchscreens) • slots • accelerometers • battery performance • bluetooth enabled • camera • GPS enabled • WiFi enabled • language support • ... and ... http://www.wurfl.com/
  21. Over 25 O/S’s platforms, middleware, and frameworks • Differences in platform/OS (Symbian, Nokia OS, RIM OS, Apple OS X, Palm WebOS, Windows Mobile, Mobile Linux, Google Android, BREW,etc.), API standards (MIDP 1.0, MIDP 2.0, etc.), optional APIs, proprietary APIs, variations in access to hardware (e.g., fullscreen support, access to local storage),  and differences in multimedia support (e.g., codecs), maximum binary size allowed, etc. • Middleware like Flash, Yahoo Blueprint • Backwards compatibility big issue
  22. http://www.slideshare.net/lis186/smartphone-market-trends
  23. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators Over 750+ Operators Worldwide • Operator’s environmental diversity from deployment infrastructure (handset&OS branding by carrier, compatibility requirements of carrier backend APIs, gateway characteristics, opened ports, restrictions on access to outside the network etc.), local standards. • GSMA OneAPI initiative is trying to standardize common API calls
  24. What about Mobile 2.0? It’s not Web 2.0, but it is browser based, just like your PC internet surfing. Sort of. And, it’s not going to fix fragmentation. Just change it a bit.
  25. If *Last Name is mandatory, shouldn’t I see a field so I can enter the data? Mobile 2.0 experience differs wrt browser, platform and handset • Just like PC web, browsers have their “idiosyncrasies”; in mobile it’s worse • Mobile 2.0 sites need to be “thin” ... light on graphics, no heavy bandwidth usage, minimal fields • “30 second tasks vs. 30 minute tasks”: Corporations need both mobile sites and PC websites • Many (most) corporations are unprepared
  26. http://www.tomiahonen.com/ More people access the internet through mobile handsets (1.02B) than PC’s (940M). Within 2 years, 71% of U.S. mobile users will access the mobile internet vs. 28% in 2008* * Nielson research http://www.slideshare.net/clisco/the-mobile-web-is-awesome
  27. http://quirksmode.org/m/table.html Significant differences in HTML handling between browsers
  28. Fragmented Mobile Ecosystem (The Shape of Things to Come) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tg4c8f0XmoM “Greed still exists in the world, and every company is going to try and shape things in the way that most interests them. This will lead to more fragmentation, not less.” Steve Morley, Former VP, Qualcomm, Pacific Northwest Summit, Jan 2009
  29. Commercialization Industry Trends i.e. Herein lies opportunity
  30. Handset manufacturers are feeling pinched • Slowing handset sales due to recession and market saturation; feature phones down to 6% growth YOY 2008; more decline in 2009 • Motorola being hit particularly hard • Carriers have maintained good margins (AT&T = 34%), handset vendors need to get a bigger piece of pie = TENSION “Frenemies” http://www.tomiahonen.com/
  31. However, in Q4 2008, there was a ray of sunshine While feature phones declined by 6% YOY, smartphones, data and applications grew 37% YOY
  32. With apps, Apple has shown the way. But it’s still V0.9 • Released July, 2008 • In less than one year, 1 Billion downloads. • 10,000 apps downloaded every 2.2 minutes. 50M apps downloaded in one week. Per week. Every week. • Total of 25,000 apps ... our prediction: 100,000 apps by end of 2009 • Plenty of room in the pool for other handset manufacturers, carriers and web off-deck app stores.
  33. How much can a developer make? • Perhaps very little. First 30 days on Apple App Store is crucial. • Or, a lot. After 10 days, #1 iFart was making $35K per day • But, only 10% of apps are still in use after 3 months; not sticky • Avg. cost per app is $2.64 (based on top 100 apps); price elastic! • Other business models: freemium, advertising (ugh), % transaction • Problem is discoverability ... getting lost in the 25,000 apps
  34. 2009 is “The Year of Mobile” • Mobile Handsets vs. PC’s • Hurry ... release analog TV spectrum! The Gold Rush for 4G (LTE or WiMax) • Device convergence: Acer moves into smartphones, Nokia moves into netbooks • Eric Schmidt, CEO Google: “Mobile search will eclipse PC search in a few years.” • Chris DeWolfe, CEO MySpace: “Mobile will drive 50% of visits by 2012” • Henri Moistinac, Director, Mobile, Facebook: “We’re starting to think that Mobile isn’t just an extension of Facebook; it’s becoming the main platform.” • Application Stores Explode “We need developers” Growing from 250K firms to 1M by 2013 • Nokia’s Ovi Store • BlackBerry App World • Windows Marketplace • App Store for Symbian, PocketGear • Android Market • Palm Software Store • O2 Litmus (Mob4Hire) • 3rd party off-deck (GetJar, Handmark)
  35. The global demand for mobile apps is just starting; and it’s not just about iFart. i.e. Developers’ Dream of Gold http://148apps.com/10000/
  36. http://www.cellular-news.com/story/35940.php http://www.abiresearch.com/eblasts/archives/analystinsider_template.jsp?id=157 http://www.marketingcharts.com/direct/half-of-us-mobile-phone-application- revenue-from-location-based-services-2203/ Mobile Application Revenue is anticipated to reach $6 Billion by 2013 http://techblips.dailyradar.com/story/ (U.S.A. in 2008 was $118M, global 2008 was $240M) isuppli_smartphone_sales_could_grow_11_in_2009/
  37. First Monday of every Month at Metropolitan Grill in Mount Royal 6:00 to 8:00 pm Just show up! Sponsored by: 71st chapter in the world started in Dec, 2008 http://mobilemondaycalgary.ning.com
  38. Thank you! Stephen King Want to know more about Mob4Hire? stephen@mob4hire.com View a 10 minute corporate overview www.mob4hire.com available from bnetTV.com coverage of www.mob4hire.blogspot.com GSMA Barcelona 2009: www.twitter.com/mob4hire http://www.bnettv.com/player.php? id=2252&title=Mob4Hire:%20CrowdSourced %20Mobile%20Testing
  39. Attributions Teemu Kurppa Jason Grigsby Tomi Ahonen http://www.slideshare.net/ http://www.slideshare.net/grigs/ http://www.slideshare.net/phk189/ teemukurppa/platform-stage-how- native-vs-web-vs-hybrid-mobile- the-7th-media to-choose-a-mobile-development- development-choices platform Rudy de Waele http://www.slideshare.net/rudydw/ Widely respected mobile guru, Tomi Ahonen Dr. Bob Hayes, Ph.D. future-of-mobile-presentation http://www.tomiahonen.com/ http://www.businessoverbroadway.com

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