Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
European Renewables Expansion
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

European Renewables Expansion

453

Published on

Ulf Eriksen, Head of Nordic & UK Trading & Origination in Statkraft, on the European renewables expansion. Presentation held on the conference Fornybarkonferansen in Bergen, Norway June 2014.

Ulf Eriksen, Head of Nordic & UK Trading & Origination in Statkraft, on the European renewables expansion. Presentation held on the conference Fornybarkonferansen in Bergen, Norway June 2014.

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
453
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
12
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. EUROPEAN RENEWABLES EXPANSION Ulf Eriksen, Statkraft Bergen, 11 June 2014
  • 2. 1 2 3Will Europe’s green revolution continue? Impacts on the power market Renewable expansion 2
  • 3. Statkraft at a glance Peru 163 MW (+ project) Chile 94 MW Turkey 20 MW (+ projects) Nepal 21 MW Philippines 179 MW Brazil 77 MW Panama (project) Zambia 7 MW Norway 12 518 MW Sweden 1 315 MW Finland 66 MW UK 273 MW Laos 100 MW Germany 2 692 MW India 82 MW Installed capacity* 17 600 MW Power production (2013) 56 TWh 97% renewable energy 3 600 employees AGUA IMARA SN POWER STATKRAFT * Includes: Statkraft’s share of installed capacity. Statkraft SF’s share of installed capacity in Laos. Albania (project) 3
  • 4. Statkraft is Europe’s largest RES producer - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Renewableelectricityproduction(TWh) Top 10 renewable electricity producers in Europe in 2012 *Top 10 electricity producers in Europe in 2012 * Renewables Fossils / Nuclear - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Electricityproduction(TWh) 4 * Adjusted figures – production outside Europe not included. Source: PWC
  • 5. District Heating Strategic focus areas European Flexible Generation Wind Power Hydropower in Emerging Markets Trading and OriginationInvestments directed to 1) Regulated income in Europe 2) Growth in emerging markets 5
  • 6. Trondheim Oslo Stockholm London Düsseldorf Sofia Amsterdam Istanbul Bukarest Beograd 6 Nordic & UK T&O European T&O Global carbon Trading & Origination (T&O) in Statkraft 2014: Trading activities in Brazil and India
  • 7. RENEWABLE EXPANSION 7
  • 8. EU’s climate and energy targets  EU targets for 2020 - 20 % GHG reduction - 20 % renewables - 20 % energy efficiency  Proposed EU targets for 2030 - 40 % GHG reduction - 27 % renewables  EU target for 2050 - 80-95 % GHG reduction 8
  • 9. 9
  • 10. Germany’s plan: «Energiewende» Switch from coal and nuclear to renewables 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 Conventional Renewables 10 Power production in Germany 2005-2050, TWh per year Source: DLR and Fraunhofer IWES
  • 11. Technology development: Wind is competitive - Solar picks up pace 11
  • 12. 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 PV generation in Germany Strong growth in solar power generation 2013 PV solar capacity:  Germany: 35,700 MW  Europe: 80,000 MW  Global: 137,000 MW 12 GWh
  • 13. Source: EWEA Changes in EU electricity generation 2013 13 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 New Decommissioned MW Wind PV Gas Coal Biomass Hydro CSP Fuel oil Nuclear
  • 14. Electricity consumption is falling 14 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 TWh EU27 Demand Growth EU27 Demand Growth Trend (2% p.a.) 0 200 400 600 800 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 TWh Germany Demand Growth Eurelectric Historic growth CERA 0 100 200 300 400 500 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 TWh UK Demand Growth Eurelectric CERA Historic Growth
  • 15. MARKET IMPACTS 15
  • 16. Drivers of energy markets 16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 German spot Nordic spot EUR/MWh 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Financial crisis EU ETS 1 Nordic hydrology Fuel price rise Nordic hydrology German renewables
  • 17. Solar production affects peak prices 17 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 EUR/MWh German power price 15may13 German power price 15may08 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 MWh/h EUR/MWh German power price 15may13 German power price 15may08 Solar production
  • 18. 18 Price spikes: A story of the past 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Number of hours with high prices (>150 €/MWh) DE FR NL IT CZ HU
  • 19. Deteriorated markets reflected in valuation of European utilities 19 Value development1 1/1-2008 vs 28/2-2014 % 0 25 50 75 100 -48% -72% -65% -54% -69% 1 Not adjusted for dividend
  • 20. Value chain is changing 20
  • 21. Time for new business models?  Statkraft has direct sales of 8.700 MW in Germany - 5000 MW is remote controlled  Statkraft market share: 25% of German wind power  Statkraft turns local power production into a big virtual renewable power plant 8 700 MW – market access 5 000 MW – remote control 21
  • 22. The future is electric! 22
  • 23. WILL EUROPE’S GREEN REVOLUTION CONTINUE? 23
  • 24. Coal is back… Development of coal vs gas prices Carbon price (EUA) development 24 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Dec_14 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2 11.mar.11 11.mar.12 11.mar.13 11.mar.14 Coal Gas
  • 25. Coal plants have the competitive edge 25 Variable operating costs (€/MWh) CO2 costs Fuel costs Variable OpEx 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 CCGT KullkraftverkCoal plant EEX power price, Germany 2014
  • 26. Total RES investments in Europe is declining 26 Q1 2004 – Q4 2013 $BN
  • 27. Global investments in renewable and fossil power production 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2010 2011 2012 2013 Renewables Fossil fuel 27
  • 28. 28 Todays European power market RES entering the market
  • 29. THANK YOU29

×