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The Changing Shape of Trad...
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There is no such thing as ...
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Capacity Building Passport...
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Trade target is £1 trillio...
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Trade target is £1 trillio...
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UK share of key export mar...
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UK versus EU-3 – goods ex...
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UK versus EU-3 – services...
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• In pound terms, it i...
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Meeting the £1Trillion Ex...
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Emerging Conclusions
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UKTI Priorities and Evidence Needs - Crispin Simon, UKTI

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UKTI Priorities and Evidence Needs - Crispin Simon, UKTI

  1. 1. 11 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide The Changing Shape of Trade and Investment in the UK UKTI priorities and evidence needs Crispin Simon, Director Trade: UKTI 22nd September 2013 With Thanks to Economists at HM Government FCO and UKTI
  2. 2. 21 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide
  3. 3. 31 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide There is no such thing as bad weather, only unsuitable clothing Ranulph Fiennes
  4. 4. 41 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide Capacity Building Passport to Export Advice for the new exporter Export Vouchers For Passport graduates Export Reviews Comms advice & mkt research resource 3G and MSB Programmes For more experienced exporters Open 2 Export Web community for exporters Getting Out There Webinars Low cost personal input Market Visit Support Grant-supported country visits Trade Show Access Programme Grant-supported trade show presence Missions to Markets Sector-focused country missions In Market OMIS Research Introductory service OMIS Facility Embassy facility use Business Opportunity Scheme E-mail alerts from FCO Posts High Value Opportunities Additional resource, supply chain focus
  5. 5. 51 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide
  6. 6. 61 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide
  7. 7. 71 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide Trade target is £1 trillion UK exports by 2020 Leverage points at firm level: • More companies • More companies being formed • More companies surviving • More companies exporting (100k by 2020) • Exporting companies exporting more • Gaining share in current markets • Entering new markets • Raising UK content of overseas sales
  8. 8. 81 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide Trade target is £1 trillion UK exports by 2020 Leverage points at macro level: • More UK Geographic Market Share • More UK market share in mature geographic markets • More UK market share in high growth geographic markets • More growth where UK has high market share • More UK Sector Market Share • More UK market share in mature sectors • More UK market share in high growth sectors • More growth where UK has high sector share
  9. 9. 91 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide UK share of key export markets in 2010 9  History continues to play a role in the pattern of UK trade.  The UK tends to capture a larger market share in its former colonies than other markets. Source: IMF, ONS and FCO Economics Unit Calculations 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Mexico Vietnam Indonesia Philippines Korea China Thailand Argentina Colombia Malaysia Japan Chile HongKong Brazil Canada Russia Morocco Iraq India Singapore Oman Turkey NewZealand Kazakhstan Egypt SaudiArabia UAE USA Kuwait EU Australia Bahrain Nigeria SouthAfrica Qatar UKShare of total import market(includesgoodsand services) FormerBritishColonies
  10. 10. 101 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide UK versus EU-3 – goods export performance 10  On average the UK captures about 2.5% of foreign goods markets, versus 3% for the EU-3.  The UK outperforms the EU-3 in the Gulf, but for many other emerging markets the EU-3 are ahead. In some cases, notably Russia, Brazil, Turkey and China, the EU-3 are significantly further ahead. Source: UNCTAD Statistics, ONS and FCO Economics Unit Calculations 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Mexico Indonesia Vietnam Philippines Korea Iraq China Colombia Kazakhstan Argentina Japan Thailand Malaysia HongKong Canada Singapore Chile Brazil India NewZealand Russia Australia Morocco Turkey USA Bahrain Oman UAE SaudiArabia Egypt Nigeria Kuwait EU SouthAfrica Qatar UK EU-3 Benchmark Share of goodsimport market
  11. 11. 111 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide
  12. 12. 121 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide UK versus EU-3 – services export performance 12  On average the UK captures around 6% of foreign services markets, versus about 3% for the EU-3.  The UK significantly outperforms the EU-3 benchmark in almost all markets. Notable exceptions are Morocco, Chile, Argentina, Mexico and Brazil. Source: UNCTAD Statistics, ONS and FCO Economics Unit Calculations 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% Thailand Korea Philippines China Indonesia Brazil India Argentina Chile Morocco Mexico Vietnam Malaysia Russia Oman Japan Colombia Kuwait HongKong Egypt Singapore Canada SaudiArabia Iraq UAE NewZealand Kazakhstan EU Qatar Turkey Nigeria USA SouthAfrica Australia Bahrain UK EU-3 Benchmark Share of servicesimportmarket
  13. 13. 131 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide 13 • In pound terms, it is the largest economies that account for the biggest rise in import demand. • The increase in Chinese import demand is especially large, dwarfing all other emerging markets. This reflects both China’s size and its growth potential. • Increasing market share in these large markets will result in bigger gains for the UK, but may be more difficult to achieve because of greater competition. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook October 2012 and FCO Economics Unit Calculations Data refer to the expected increase in goods & services imports into a given market, expressed in nominal terms. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 EU USA Japan Canada Australia NewZealand Bahrain Qatar Morocco Oman Egypt Colombia Kuwait Philippines Chile Nigeria Kazakhstan SouthAfrica Argentina Iraq Singapore SaudiArabia UAE Turkey Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Brazil Thailand Mexico Russia HongKong India Korea China Change in import demand between 2010 and 2020 (£ Billion) 'Established' Markets Emerging Powers Note: EU figure includes intra-EU trade
  14. 14. 141 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide Meeting the £1Trillion Export Target 14  Given the weak global economic outlook, hitting the £1 trillion target will be difficult. Maintaining market share will not be enough. We need to gain market share.  Comparing the UK’s performance against our European competitors allows us to see where we might make up ground and offers a way to benchmark our performance.  Catching the EU-3 in the fastest growing emerging economies would represent a significant contribution to hitting the £1tn target. £1 Trillion Target 2010 UK Exports Gains from maintaining market share in all markets Gains from catching the EU-3 in the emerging powers Gains from catching the EU-3 in emerging Europe 500 800 300 400 100 200 0 600 700 900
  15. 15. 151 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide1 Presentation title - edit in the Master slide Emerging Conclusions • £1 Trillion Exports target looks less demanding than 100k New Exporters • Market share gains will be required • Greatest evidence need is more insight of the market conditions (size/share/customer needs) within the geographic/sector segments (eg China/automotive; Saudi-Arabia/professional services) where we must win
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