What’s next
Peter Patterson, Deputy Chief Economic Adviser
Graeme Walker, Head of National Accounts
ONS Economic Forum
7 A...
What’s next
• NSQR of National Accounts
• Blue Book 2014
• No special events in Q1, despite flooding
• Johnson review of p...
National Accounts developments
• Preliminary estimate Q1 2014 to be published on
29 April – no special events
• National S...
NSQRs - Background
NSQRs ran
from 2002 –
2008
Postponed
when UKSA
established -
Assessments
NSQRs
Re-launched
2012
Two NSQ...
ToR – Scope and Priorities
NA, BoP and related outputs
Broad scope:
• Users (issues, uses, priorities)
• Strengths and wea...
Main Topics Covered
Stakeholder
engagement and
communication
Quality Assurance
Corrections policy
Data Collection
(Surveys...
Reporting and Implementation
ACTIVITIES DATE
Ongoing Review investigations &
Report drafting
Now – end April 14
Publish NS...
Blue Book 2014
• Will contain substantial definitional
and methodological changes
• Changes fall into three parts
• ESA10 ...
ESA10 changes
• ESA is the legal NA framework in the
EU
• Updated every 15 years or so
• Currently ESA95
• From September ...
ESA10 changes
• Shorthand for introduction of three new EU
manuals
• ESA10; BPM6; MGDD
• Estimated to add 2½ to 5% to leve...
R&D/Weapons
• Now treated as capital expenditure
• Raises level of nominal GDP
• R&D – possibly about £25 billion a year
•...
Pensions
• ESA10 requires inclusion of imputed
contributions for funded Defined
Benefit schemes
• But not unfunded
• Small...
Other changes required by Eurostat
• GNI reservations being addressed
• Illegal activities
• NPISH final expenditure
• Ful...
Other methods changes
• Inventories
• Improved deflation and chain linking
methodology
• GFCF
• More detailed quality assu...
Future dates for GDP releases
• Preliminary estimate of GDP – 29 April
• Second estimate of GDP – 22 May
• Quarterly Natio...
Email: economicforum@ons.gov.uk
Twitter: @ONS
#ONSeconomy.
16
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Economic forum what's next

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Economic forum what's next

  1. 1. What’s next Peter Patterson, Deputy Chief Economic Adviser Graeme Walker, Head of National Accounts ONS Economic Forum 7 April 2014 1
  2. 2. What’s next • NSQR of National Accounts • Blue Book 2014 • No special events in Q1, despite flooding • Johnson review of price statistics (autumn) • Re-weighting of LFS estimates using 2011 Census data (August) • New data on capital stocks 2
  3. 3. National Accounts developments • Preliminary estimate Q1 2014 to be published on 29 April – no special events • National Statistics Quality Review to be published early May • External review undertaken by Kate Barker (ex-MPC member) and Art Ridgeway (retired Head of NA – StatsCan) • BB14 data released 30 September • BB14 on 31 October • Communications around Blue Book 2014 changes • Original scoping article 26 November 2013 • Further series of articles, including summaries of impact, April- July • List to be published shortly • Seminars 3
  4. 4. NSQRs - Background NSQRs ran from 2002 – 2008 Postponed when UKSA established - Assessments NSQRs Re-launched 2012 Two NSQRs since relaunch • Labour Force Survey • NA & BoP Continuous Improvement Quality 4
  5. 5. ToR – Scope and Priorities NA, BoP and related outputs Broad scope: • Users (issues, uses, priorities) • Strengths and weaknesses of current data, systems, methods and processes • Progress check against previous reviews Be helpful and realistic 5
  6. 6. Main Topics Covered Stakeholder engagement and communication Quality Assurance Corrections policy Data Collection (Surveys) SUT to QGDP process Business Register Flow of Funds Gross Fixed Capital Formation Capital Stocks Deflators and deflation Balance of Payments International flows Regulatory Requirements Governance and decision making Sector & Financial Accounts Regional Accounts Public Sector Finances Administrative Data Systems and Processes Revisions policy 6
  7. 7. Reporting and Implementation ACTIVITIES DATE Ongoing Review investigations & Report drafting Now – end April 14 Publish NSQR Report May 14 Revised NA Work Plan taking into account NSQR Recommendations Summer 14 7
  8. 8. Blue Book 2014 • Will contain substantial definitional and methodological changes • Changes fall into three parts • ESA10 changes • Other changes required by Eurostat • Other methods changes 8
  9. 9. ESA10 changes • ESA is the legal NA framework in the EU • Updated every 15 years or so • Currently ESA95 • From September will be ESA10 • ESA10 consistent with SNA08 • Already introduced in some non-EU countries • Will be implemented across EU from September 9
  10. 10. ESA10 changes • Shorthand for introduction of three new EU manuals • ESA10; BPM6; MGDD • Estimated to add 2½ to 5% to level of GDP • Main changes for 2014 are • Capitalisation of R&D • Weapons • Pensions • Full list in scoping article – 26 November 2013 • Ongoing programme of work until 2017 • Changes impacting on GDP planned for 2014 10
  11. 11. R&D/Weapons • Now treated as capital expenditure • Raises level of nominal GDP • R&D – possibly about £25 billion a year • Weapons – about £3 billion • Some impact on change • R&D article – April • Weapons article – May 11
  12. 12. Pensions • ESA10 requires inclusion of imputed contributions for funded Defined Benefit schemes • But not unfunded • Small impact on GDP levels and growth • Main impact • Estimated level shift of around +5 p.p • Article 28 April 12
  13. 13. Other changes required by Eurostat • GNI reservations being addressed • Illegal activities • NPISH final expenditure • Full list on ONS website • Mainly impacting on levels • Illegal activities – up to £10 billion • NPISH – maximum of over £25 billion • Article(s) - May 13
  14. 14. Other methods changes • Inventories • Improved deflation and chain linking methodology • GFCF • More detailed quality assurance • 5 yearly rebasing of producer price deflators • Likely to impact on growth rates • Detailed articles planned 14
  15. 15. Future dates for GDP releases • Preliminary estimate of GDP – 29 April • Second estimate of GDP – 22 May • Quarterly National Accounts - 27 June (changed from 26th) • Preliminary estimate – 25 July • Second estimate (output only) – 15 August • Quarterly National Accounts (ESA10 basis) – 30 September • Blue Book and Pink Book – 31 October 15
  16. 16. Email: economicforum@ons.gov.uk Twitter: @ONS #ONSeconomy. 16

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