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Analysis of applicants’ choices
 

Analysis of applicants’ choices

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This is an analysis of JAMB 2012 UTME Candidates' choices

This is an analysis of JAMB 2012 UTME Candidates' choices

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    Analysis of applicants’ choices Analysis of applicants’ choices Presentation Transcript

    • 4 5 3 6 2 7 1 80 9
    • JAMB 2012:Analysis of Applicants’ Choices
    • JAMB 2012 registration started Nov. 2011,and ended Mar. 12th 2012 after a 1 weekpostponement.Total Applicant = 1,503,889 503,1.5million Candidates will be vying for about500,000 admission spaces in Nigeria tertiaryinstitutions. 1,503,889 _ 30% 30% 500,000 ˜ So, what is the fate of the remaining 70%?
    • 13 Years History of JAMB Applicants [2000 – 2012]
    • History of Applications 2000 – 2012 Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 416,381 749,417 994,380 1,132,392 841,878 916,371 803,472 911,653 1,054,060 1,182,381 1,375,652 1,493,604 1,503,889 Year / Total Applicants1,600,000 1,493,604 1,503,889 1,375,6521,400,000 1,182,3811,200,000 1,132,392 1,054,060 994,3801,000,000 916,371 911,653 841,878 803,472 800,000 749,417 600,000 416,381 400,000 200,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
    • % Growth of Applications ‘00 – ‘12 % Growth 100.00%Year Count 79.98% % Growth 80.00%2000 416,381 60.00%2001 749,417 79.98% 40.00% 32.69%2002 994,380 32.69% 20.00% 13.88% 13.46% 15.62% 12.17% 16.35%2003 1,132,392 13.88% 8.85% 8.57% 0.69% 0.00%2004 841,878 -25.65% -20.00% -12.32%2005 916,371 8.85% -25.65% -40.00%2006 803,472 -12.32% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122007 911,653 13.46%2008 1,054,060 15.62%2009 1,182,381 12.17% Base on the growth trend above, JAMB2010 1,375,652 16.35% 2013 may experience a decline. Could2011 1,493,604 8.57% this imply applicants are getting less2012 1,503,889 0.69% interested in Tertiary education? …but why?
    • Application byInstitution Owners
    • Federal – State – Private Owner % of Applicants Federal 68.56% State 29.87% Private 1.57% 342,800) This means, Federal Schools will admit 68.56% (342,800) Candidates, State Schools – 29.87% (149,350) and Private 149,350) Schools – 1.57% (7,850). Owner No. of InstitutionSurprisingly, there are Federal 36more Private Institutionsthan Federal or State. State 37 Private 50
    • Federal – State - PrivateIn other words, our schools are available but notaffordable.affordable In fact, with the growth rate of theestablishment of private institutions, it has beenpredicted that by 2015, Private institutions willfar out-number all other types of institutions inAfrica.The implication is that Tertiary Education will bemore expensive just as the Government ownedwill be over-stretched beyond capacity.
    • Application by Institutions [Highest – Lowest]
    • Some schools consistently enjoy high patronageeven though over 90% of their applicants arenever offered admission space.About 94,000+ candidates applied to UNILAG in2011, only 8000+ were offered admission. This isjust about 8.5% success rate.This year, 84,000+ applied to UNILAG as firstchoice institution, how many will be admitted?About…. 7148.93617021276595745 Applicants!Why are some schools consistently oversubscribed while others are short of Students?
    • 2012 Application by Institution Below are top 10 Institutions with highest patronage – University, Poly and College of Education100,000 94,078 89,310 90,000 84,324 82,382 82,043 80,275 80,216 79,840 80,000 78,264 74,269 69,498 70,000 65,651 64,261 64,160 60,684 60,000 48,848 2012 50,000 45,851 43,500 2011 42,086 40,000 30,000 20,000 14,029 10,000 0 UNILAG NAU UNIBEN UNN UNILORIN OAU ABU UNIPORT UNIUYO EVANS
    • Institutions like UNILAG, ABU, UNIPORT dropped in patronage, itcould be as a result of the establishments of new schools orApplicants decide to try their luck elsewhere after severaldisappointments.Particularly surprised at EVANS, with over 200% increase inpatronage and ABU dropping down to 7th position on the list,definitely besides the above mentioned reasons, political/religiousinstability could be a culprit.Total applicants to this 10 schools form about 45% of the totalcandidates that apply for JAMB 2012.Only one of these Schools is owned by a State government, none byPrivate establishments; hence government remains the highestinvestor in Nigeria Education.One obvious fact is Federal schools are cheaper, but the truth is thatinfrastructures in these schools are over-stretched. Still there aresome Federal schools with few applicants, with competitiveinfrastructures that are less used.
    • Polytechnic and College of Education180,000 163,836160,000 145,173 Polytechnic140,000 119,011120,000 116,412 101,806 99,818 98,704100,000 83,785 2012 80,000 71,517 2011 59,301 55,804 59,827 57,080 47,017 60,000 52,607 51,111 51,341 47,790 45,235 38,102 40,000 20,000 0 NEKEDE YABA AUCHI OKO KADUNA RIVERS IBADAN NASARAWA AKWA-IBOM KWARA180,000 162,642160,000 College of education 141,111140,000120,000 104,530 101,294 98,517100,000 97,693 2012 72,377 74,781 80,113 80,000 67,889 2011 69,756 63,533 45,437 60,000 44,883 45,696 42,254 39,423 42,615 40,955 40,699 40,000 20,000 0 A-IKOKU ADEYEMI ADENIRAN AKOKA PH ZARIA AKWA-IBOM ZUBA EKIADOLO NSUGBE
    • Application by Faculty
    • Shown below is applicants’ first choices based on Faculty 300000 295858 277815 264959 250000 197836 200000 177570 150000 100000 87385 60054 51494 50000 26113 0 Social Science Administration Medical Engineering Science Law Arts Education AgricultureSocial Sciences and Administration are clear leadersshowing Applicants have higher preference for courseslisted in these faculties. This has been the usual trend.
    • 300000 275208 249928250000 198572200000 2008 184210 179056 174409 160466 157460150000 139129 117905 2009100000 83009 75244 68434 67851 50000 44346 36590 13408 11216 0 Social Science Administration Medical Engineering Science Law Arts Education Agriculture According to Joberman Salary Survey 2012 Accounting/Finance & 2012; Administrative skills ranked as the two most employed skills in Nigeria. What does this infer for the competitiveness of the Nigeria Economy and the future of the Sciences?
    • Country’s economy are usually divided into Service, ServiceIndustry & Agriculture sectors. Most developedcountries are more into Services (driven by Technology & theSciences) and less of Agriculture & Industry.The World Economy is: Service(63%), Industry(31%) 63% 63 , 31% 31& Agriculture(6%) while the Nigeria economy is: 6Service(35%), Industry(33%) & Agriculture (32%) 35% 35 33% 33 32% 32This shows that in order for the Nigeria economy tomeasure up and deliver prosperity to its citizens,careers choices should be more of courses thatoffers intangible services that are exportable.Courses that lead to the production & adaptation ofInformation, generation & application of Knowledge,improvement of Productivity, Performance, Potentialand Sustainability should be pursued intently.
    • Application byCourse of Study [Highest – Lowest]
    • Which are the future Profession andProfessionals, and which ones are going to beno more?We have courses that have existed for ages, arethey still relevant in the 21st Century and beyond.Also, there are emerging Professions andProfessionals, can they stand the test ofinnovation?A school of thought believes ‘it doesn’t matterwhat you study, just get a good grade’ and jobswill find you out. The other believe the onlycourses worth studying are ‘professionalcourses’?
    • 2012 Application by CourseTop 10 Courses with highest patronage – University Med. & Surgery Accounting Economics 116,037 101,877 98,967 Law Business Admin. Mass Comm. 87,385 82,551 69,836 Political Sci. Computer Sci. Microbiology 69,047 67,996 47,097 Biochemistry 37,318
    • More than 50% (778,111 of total Candidates applied for 778, 778 111)these top 10 courses.No Engineering or Arts/Humanities course made the top10. Mechanical (32,493 & Civil Engineering (32,223 came 32, 32 493) 32, 32 223)in 13th & 14th positions respectively; despite, we do nothave mechanized industries and our roads are deplorable.Nursing & Pharmacy ranks 11th and 12th on the list;together with Biochemistry, Microbiology and Medicine &Surgery, they totaled 266,117 candidates, yet LifeExpectancy in Nigeria is about 47yrs.By these facts; there should be more Doctors,Accountants, Economist, Lawyers, etc. than all otherprofessionals.
    • But the reality is that most of these Applicants do notreally get to study their first choice for many reasons; sothey opt for less known courses, if you like ‘the non-professional courses’.Beside Law and Medicine & Surgery, getting employed inany of the other profession could just be a matter ofearning a good first degree, corresponding 2nd degree andprofessional certificationsThe Labour market is biased towards Grade than Courseof Study, a good grade appears better than a good course.Also true is the fact that lots of Graduate do not work withwhat they study – some Doctors, Lawyers, Engineers,abandon their profession for other fields they findinteresting – financially or fulfilling.
    • Institution WithMost Subscribed Course
    • Why would a Candidate prefer to study a course in School A instead of B? Is this true for all courses? 12,000 First Course 1st 2nd 3rd Accounting 10,192 9,406 7,616 Med & Surgery 10,131 9,184 8,694 10,000 Biz Admin 9,423 7,741 7,343 Law 6,634 6,469 6,042 Economics 6,071 5,057 4,684 UNILORIN UNN Mass Comm. 6,315 5,966 5,459 UNILORIN Nursing 5,056 4,441 3,581 8,000 Elect/Elect 4,948 2,790 2,507 OAU UNILAG Petroleum Eng 4,663 3,904 3,140 OAU Pharmacy 4,397 4,091 4,076 UNILAG UNILORIN Political Sci 4,367 3,255 3,120 Computer Sci 4,201 2,921 2,846 6,000 1st UNIBEN 2nd UNILORIN UNN 3rd UNIBEN NAU UNILAG UNN UNN OAU 4,000 EVANS FUTO FUTO UNIBEN NAU UNN UNIPORT UNILORIN LAUTECH OAU ABU UNIBEN UNIBEN UNILAG UNIPORT UNIBEN BSU FUTO 2,000 FUTA 0 Accounting Med & Biz Admin Law Economics Mass Comm Nursing Elect/Elect Petroleum Pharmacy Political Sci Computer Surgery Eng SciIllustration: Accounting is the most preferred course, with UNILORIN as the 1st institution of choice, then OAU & UNILAG
    • Statistically; UNN seems to be the institution of choice forMedicine & Surgery, Law, Nursing, Pharmacy, etc.Though there are no enough evidence to conclude UNN isthe best in these courses, but there it gives high indicationthat it might be the best in Medical sciences.UNILORIN could be considered tops for Administrativecourses – Accounting and Business AdministrationFUTO stood out as the institution of choice for Engineeringcourses, coming tops in Elect/Elect & PetroleumEngineeringEVANS (Imo) – Economics, LAUTECH (Osun) - Nursing &BSU (Benue) – Political Science & Business Managementare the only 3 States Universities on the list
    • Where are the Teachers? [Education]
    • One of the greatest resource for the achievement of aNation’s developmental goals is the availability of qualityTeachers.The Teaching professional is not well embraced asevidenced in Candidates’ choice of study; for obviousreasons, teachers are one of the least paid professionals.Yearly, graduates of Education are produced but very fewpractice the profession. Why?Some of those graduates took to Education because itoffers them easier opportunity for tertiary education.Even those that deliberately chose Education as course ofstudy are poached by organization (Banks, Telecoms, Oil &Gas, InfoTech.) once they graduate with enviable grades –2nd class upper & 1st class.
    • A total of 51,494 candidates applied for courses in 51,Education. This is just 3.42% of total applicants. 42%Based on 500,000 (30% of applicants) carrying capacity of 500,our Tertiary institutions; only 15,488 (i.e. 30% of 51,494) 15, 30% 51,potential teachers would be produced in the year 2017. Admin & Planning, 7764 Adult & Child, Sciences, 12034 1968Seedistribution ofapplicants perSubject areas: commercial, 11054 Arts, 18674
    • Students performance in WAEC, NECO & JAMB in theSciences have been discouraging, could it be due toinsufficient manpower in the Sciences? 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0The Sciences trail behind except Biology & Agric. It is alsoworrisome that Mathematics unlike English Language isnot a subject of choice for Education applicants.
    • Core Subjects & Applicants’ Interests Arts50004000300020001000 0 English IRS Hausa CRS History Yoruba Arabic French Igbo Govt Music Nig Lang Edo Lang
    • Core Subjects & Applicants’ Interests Commercials500045004000350030002500200015001000 500 0 Economics Business Education Accounting
    • Core Subjects & Applicants’ Interests Sciences30002500200015001000500 0 Biology Agric Math Physics Chemistry
    • Will There Be Food For All? [Agriculture]
    • Only 3 university of Agriculture exist. UNAAB, MAKURDI &UMUDIKE. Some of the non-Agric. institutions have facultyof Agriculture.A total of 26,113 candidates applied for courses in 26,Agriculture. This is just 1.74% of total applicants. 74% 6000 5000 4000 Courses with high interest 3000 2000 1000 0 Agric - Biz Food Sci & Tech Agric Agric-econs & Agric Eng Agric Econs Agric Sci & Edu Ext Plant Sci. & Microbiology 0 Home Science, Nutrition And Dietetics 0 Home Economics And Food Management 0 Courses with no interest as first choice Forestry 0 Soil Science Management 0 Agriculture/Mechanization And Technology 0 Soil Science And Agro-climatology 0
    • Though food business is a serious business, mostAgriculture graduates prefer white collar jobs to farmmanagement and the likes.With Nigeria population at about 2% growth rate;importation of food – both raw and processed – aredefinitely going to be on the increase.Benue state is known as the “Food Basket of the Nation Food Nation”and claimed to have the weather condition of 5 South-American countries making it indeed a potential foodproducer for the Nation.Though Lagos is congested; Nigeria is filled with lots ofvirgin forests and thick bushes uninhabited but very usefulfor Agricultural produce.Food for all is possible in Nigeria; a clarion call to theGovernment for the sustenance of the future generation.
    • Data source:- JAMB results as announced in the dailies- WAEC results as announced in the dailiesFreely share, freely use and freely quote the source– © Wale Micaiah Analysis by: Wale Micaiah m: 08078001800 w. www.statisense.info e: walegate@yahoo.com b: walemicaiah.blog.com StatiSense ® - Wale Micaiah ©