Economic Indicators of Wyoming\'s Economic Health: Part I


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A short article investigating indicators related to the economic health of Wyoming. The analysis used employment data in addition to turnover statistics at the individual level.

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Economic Indicators of Wyoming\'s Economic Health: Part I

  1. 1. TRENDS WYOMING LABOR FORCE November 2009 Vol. 46 No. 11 © Copyright 2009 by the Wyoming Department of Employment Research & Planning Indicators of Wyoming’s Economic Health: Part I by: Doug Leonard, Senior Economist The movement of workers from their homes to their places of employment is an integral part of Wyoming’s economy. A considerable amount of movement is due to the state’s low population density and the existence of work locations in remote areas. The following article examines the relationship of worker commuting to other economic variables such as initial unemployment insurance claims, jobs worked, and oil and gas drilling activity. Research indicated that commuting as a factor in conjunction with other variables can be a leading indicator of employment changes in the state. “O n an over-the-year basis, follows as to whether (and to what extent) employment fell by 3,059 jobs downturns can be anticipated and what (-1.1%) and average weekly wage data are available to either predict or decreased by $1 (-0.1%) from first quarter confirm these events. Wyoming’s rapid 2008 to first quarter 2009. Job losses were growth in recent years also had other reported in more than half of Wyoming effects on workers in the state. The rural counties and in 12 industry sectors.” nature and sparsely populated open (Bullard & Brennan; October 2009) spaces in the state require some type of work-related travel for many people. This As the quote indicates, Wyoming’s increases demand for fuels, automotive economy entered a period of contraction repair, and automotive maintenance. More during first quarter 2009. This stands demands are placed on the infrastructure in stark contrast to the rapid growth the as well when people use public roadways state experienced from 2005 to 2008. Once a contraction begins, speculation (Text continued on page 3) HIGHLIGHTS • The recently completed Rockies Express natural gas pipeline, which runs from western Colorado to Ohio, opens new markets for Wyoming natural gas. … page 8 • Wyoming’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate climbed to 6.8% in September, as the state’s employment decreased by 12,900 jobs from September 2008. … page 20 NEW The Growing and Declining Industries tables for Second Quarter 2009 are now available on the Internet at
  2. 2. Wyoming Department of Employment © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Research & Planning Unemployment Rate by Wyoming County, September 2009 (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Wyoming Labor Force Trends Northwest Region Northeast Region A monthly publication of the Wyoming Department Big Horn Sheridan of Employment, Sheridan Sundance Gary W. Child, Director Cody Basin Bu alo Crook Park Gillette Research & Planning Teton Worland Johnson Campbell Newcastle P.O. Box 2760 Washakie Hot Springs Weston Casper, WY 82602-2760 Jackson Thermopolis doeerd_r& 307-473-3807 Sublette Natrona Converse Niobrara Pinedale Casper Douglas Tom Gallagher, Manager Lander Tony Glover, Workforce Lusk Fremont Information Supervisor Goshen Platte Carola Cowan, Bureau of Labor Lincoln Sweetwater Wheatland Torrington Statistics Programs Supervisor Rawlins Phil Ellsworth, Editor Kemmerer Albany Uinta Green River Carbon Laramie Michael Moore, Associate Editor Evanston Laramie Cheyenne Editorial Committee: David Bullard, Valerie A. Davis, Phil Ellsworth, Southwest Region Central Region Southeast Region and Michael Moore 2.0 to 3.4 3.5 to 4.9 5.0 to 6.4 6.5 to 7.9 Contributors to Wyoming Labor Unemployment Rate (Percentage) Force Trends this month: David Bullard, Carola Cowan, Phil Ellsworth, Margaret Hiatt, and Douglas W. Leonard. IN THIS ISSUE Subscriptions, additional copies, and Indicators of Wyoming’s Economic Health: Part I . . . . . . . . . . 1 back issues available free of charge. © Copyright 2009 by the Wyoming Occupation Spotlight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Department of Employment, Research & Planning. Employment Situation in States Along the Rockies Express Pipeline Route . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Material contained in this publication is in the public domain and may Twelve-Month Percentage Point Increase in be reproduced without special Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates by State, permission provided that source September 2008 to September 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 credit is given to: Wyoming Labor Force Trends, Wyoming Department Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses of Employment, Research & Planning. Data Online . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Department of Employment Nondiscrimination Statement Wyoming Job Losses Continue in September . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 The Department of Employment does State Unemployment Rates (Seasonally Adjusted) . . . . . . . . 21 not discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, national Wyoming Nonagricultural Wage and Salary origin, sex, age, or disability. It is our Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 intention that all individuals seeking services from our agency be given Economic Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 equal opportunity and that eligibility Wyoming County Unemployment Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 decisions be based upon applicable statutes, rules, and regulations. Wyoming Normalized Unemployment Insurance Mission statement available at http:// Statistics: Initial Claims . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Wyoming Normalized Unemployment Insurance ISSN 0512-4409 Statistics: Continued Claims . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Page 2 November 2009
  3. 3. Research & Planning © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Wyoming Department of Employment (Text continued from page 1) individuals working. This means that the analysis of commuting count and for work. As trip distances and frequencies distance data includes multiple jobholding. increase, so do the chances traveling The analysis covers the period from first workers will be involved in automobile quarter 2001 to first quarter 2009. accidents. Additional time on the road means less time spent at home, which may be associated with family life difficulties. Results Positive impacts of workers commuting may include the ability to secure higher Figure 1 (see page 4) shows the paying and more stable employment while quarterly intracounty (short distance, remaining at the same residence. within county) commuting flows from first quarter 2001 to first quarter 2009 along Prior analyses performed by Research with the percentage change in flow & Planning focused on the socioeconomic compared with the prior year. The over- impacts associated with commuting the-year percentage change line provides during an economic expansion (Leonard, information regarding positive or negative 2008). However, limited research examined growth in Wyoming’s economy. As the what happens to worker commuting positive portion of the growth line shows, during an economic contraction or changes were small (3.2% or less) until recession. In addition to commuting fourth quarter 2003, when intracounty effects, what other variables could be used commuting surged 6.7% to 208,850 worker to analyze the severity of, and, if possible transactions (single and multiple jobs) to predict economic downturns before they from 195,679 in fourth quarter 2002. occur? From fourth quarter 2003 until second quarter 2005 (seven quarters) the growth rate in intracounty commuting was nearly Methodology equal to or exceeded 4.0%. From third quarter 2005 to fourth quarter 2007, the The primary data set and definitions growth rate slowed but remained steady used in this analysis come from the between 1.8% and 3.1%. However, commuting pattern data model (Leonard, beginning in first quarter 2008, growth in 2008). This data set contains information intracounty commuting slowed rapidly and about worker movements, wages, became negative by second quarter 2008. industries, and demographics. Other The last three quarters in the time series data sets used include continued and show a rapid decline in intracounty initial unemployment insurance (UI) commuting through first quarter 2009 as claims (Wyoming Department of the recession which beset the United Employment, 2009), rotary drilling rig States appears to begin substantially counts (Baker Hughes, Inc., 2009) and affecting Wyoming. employment levels from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Figure 2 (see page 4) illustrates (QCEW) program (Wyoming Department commuting behavior in a slightly different of Employment, 2009). manner than Figure 1. First, Figure 2 shows commuting behavior between The base unit of analysis was jobs counties (intercounty commuting). Second, worked at any time in the state, not in addition to Wyoming residents, it November 2009 Page 3
  4. 4. Wyoming Department of Employment © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Research & Planning 250,000 8.0% 243,000 6.4% Over-the-Year Percentage Change 236,000 4.8% 229,000 3.2% Commuting Flowa 222,000 1.6% 215,000 0.0 208,000 -1.6% 201,000 -3.2% Over-the-Year Change 194,000 Commuting Flow -4.8% 187,000 -6.4% 180,000 -8.0% 2001Q1 2001Q2 2001Q3 2001Q4 2002Q1 2002Q2 2002Q3 2002Q4 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3 2003Q4 2004Q1 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4 2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 Year and Quarter aCounts may include individuals multiple times if they hold more than one job. Figure 1: Wyoming Within-County Commuting Flows and Over-the-Year Change, First Quarter 2001 (2001Q1) to First Quarter 2009 (2009Q1) includes people working in the state who do not 130,000 Over-the-Year Change 30.0% have a Wyoming driver’s Over-the-Year Percentage Change 124,000 Commuting Flow 25.0% license (nonresidents). In 118,000 20.0% 2002 there was a rapid 112,000 Commuting Flowa increase in the amount of 15.0% 106,000 intercounty commuting, 100,000 10.0% followed by several quarters 94,000 5.0% of contractions occurring in 88,000 0.0% the period shortly following 82,000 -5.0% the collapse of Enron. This 76,000 -10.0% was followed by a period 70,000 -15.0% 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 of growth in the first half of 2005 transitioning back to negative growth from Year and Quarter third quarter 2005 until aCounts may include individuals multiple times if they hold more than one job. second quarter 2006. From second quarter 2006 until second quarter 2008 Figure 2: Wyoming Intercounty Commuting Flows and Over-the-Year growth rates exceeded Percentage Change, First Quarter 2001 (2001Q1) to First Quarter 2009 12.0% four times. The (2009Q1) Page 4 November 2009
  5. 5. Research & Planning © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Wyoming Department of Employment effects of the national recession can larger downward change was observed in be seen in third quarter 2008 as intercounty commuting. Often during intercounty commuting contracted at a economic expansions, Wyoming obtains a pace greater than 12.0%. large amount of labor from other states (Jones, 2006). When expansions end, these A comparison of over-the-year changes workers generally return to their locations in statewide employment (Wyoming of origin (see Figure 4, page 7). Figure 4 Department of Employment, 2009), shows that during the current recession, intercounty commuting, initial (first-time nearly one-quarter of dislocated workers filing) unemployment insurance (UI) claims receiving Wyoming unemployment benefits (Wen & Leonard, 2009), out-of-state UI are now living in another state. Based on claimants (Leonard, 2009), and rotary the data presented in Figures 1 and 4, the drilling rig counts (Baker Hughes, 2009) current recession is affecting Wyoming’s is shown in Figure 3 (see page 6). Changes resident workforce in addition to its in intercounty commuting, either up or itinerant or transient workforce. down, do not necessarily precede changes in the employment level. An example of Although commuting data provide this occurred in 2007, when intercounty some information regarding economic commuting increased, yet the employment health, UI claims and rotary drilling growth levels declined. Over-the-year rig count data are timelier and tend to percentage changes in initial filings for be more sensitive to economic changes. unemployment insurance and rotary This is evidenced in Figure 3 when the drilling rig counts do appear to precede rig counts and UI claims began moving changes in employment. When initial UI in opposite directions beginning in 2007, claims and rig counts changed markedly well before the decline in employment was compared to the recent historical trend in seen in first quarter 2009. Conversely, the 2007 and 2008, the employment growth timeliness and sensitivity of these data rate began to decline. It was not until sets may be early indicators of Wyoming’s first quarter 2009 that the state began to recovery, while intercounty commuting experience negative employment growth. data may be more confirmatory in nature. Discussion Conclusion The rapid decline in intercounty In this first article of a two-part series, commuting (see Figures 2 and 3) beginning we examined the interplay between in mid-2008 suggests the over-the-year commuting flows, rotary drilling rig change statistic (in conjunction with other counts, first-time applications for variables) could be used as a leading unemployment insurance, and employment indicator of growth or contraction in levels. The combination of these four data Wyoming’s economy. Intracounty sets showed an early indication of commuting flows (see Figure 1) show that Wyoming’s economic downturn. Such the current recession is much different than indicators may also provide information as the economic downturn Wyoming to when the state has exited the recession experienced earlier in the decade. During and is on the path toward recovery. that downturn, intracounty commuting flows were affected very little, while a much (Text continued on page 7) November 2009 Page 5
  6. 6. Page 6 5.0 140 4.4 122 3.8 104 3.2 86 2.6 68 Wyoming Department of Employment 2.0 50 1.4 32 0.8 14 Change in Employment Over-the-Year Percentage 0.2 -4 Commuting, Rigs, & Initial Claims -0.4 -22 Over-the-Year Percentage Change in -1.0 -40 2002Q1 2002Q2 2002Q3 2002Q4 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3 2003Q4 2004Q1 2004Q2 2004Q3 2004Q4 2005Q1 2005Q2 2005Q3 2005Q4 2006Q1 2006Q2 2006Q3 2006Q4 2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 Year and Quarter Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rotary Drilling Rigs Intercounty Commuting Employment © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS November 2009 Figure 3: Wyoming Over-the-Year (OTY) Percentage Changes in Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, Rig Counts, Employment, and Research & Planning Intercounty Commuting, First Quarter 2002 (2002Q1) to First Quarter 2009 (2009Q1)
  7. 7. Research & Planning © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Wyoming Department of Employment 12, 2009, from http://doe. References Jones, S.D. (2006). States of origin for Wyoming mpo_08.pdf Baker Hughes, Inc. (2009). workers. Wyoming Labor Rotary rigs by state. Force Trends, 43(4). Wen, S. & Leonard, D. Retrieved October 22, Retrieved November 10, (2009). Statewide 2009, from http://investor. 2009 from http://doe.state. normalized initial claims by industry in NAICS. counts/rc_index.cfm Retrieved October 21, Leonard, D.W. (2009). 2009, from http://doe. Bullard D. & Brennan Out of State Continued N. (2009). Covered Unemployment Insurance tables.xls employment and wages Claimants, 2000-2009 for first quarter 2009: (Normalized). Unpublished Wyoming Department of Jobs and payroll decrease chart. Employment, Research from year-ago levels. & Planning Wyoming Labor Force Leonard, D.W. (2008). (2009). Trends, 46(10). Retrieved Laramie County Quarterly November 10, 2009 from and Colorado worker Census of commuting pattern Employment LMI/1009/1009.pdf analysis. Retrieved October and Wages. 25.0% Percentage of Out-of-State Continued Claimants Percentage of Out-of-State Claimants 12-Month Trailing Moving Average (Claims-Weighted) 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Figure 4: Percentage of Out-of-State Continued Unemployment Insurance Claimants, 2000-2009 (Normalized) November 2009 Page 7
  8. 8. Wyoming Department of Employment © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Research & Planning Occupation Spotlight D id you know there are an estimated 530 dental assistants in Wyoming? According to the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey, dental assistants in Wyoming earn a mean wage of $13.24 per hour, with an average entry wage of $8.90 per hour. Wage data for specific occupations is available online at LMI/oes.htm. Click on the “County and Regional Wages (estimates for Dental Wyoming wages for September 2009)” link. From there you can select Assistants statewide or county-specific data on different occupations in Wyoming. Employment Situation in States Along the Rockies Express Pipeline Route by: Phil Ellsworth, Information Specialist S ince the earliest days of energy segment pipeline in 2009 differs from most production in pre-statehood of the pipeline expansions and capacity- Wyoming, producers have been increasing projects of 2008 in that the looking for ways to transport their goods previous projects had primarily expanded to customers without shedding too much capacity along existing distribution routes. of their profit in the process. The delivery The new pipeline has changed regional system that began as wagon tracks distribution dynamics that have been through the sagebrush now forms a in place since the construction boom spider web of oil and natural gas pipelines following World War II (Energy Information throughout the state and beyond. Many of Administration, 2009). these lines are relatively short intracounty lines, interconnected parts of the gathering Regression analysis by Research & system. Others, such as the Wyoming- Planning (R&P) has shown that natural to-California Kern River Pipeline are gas prices from 2000 to 2005 were highly mammoth, multi-state conduits. In recent correlated with the number of jobs in oil years, limited pipeline capacity has led to and gas, and crude oil prices explained lower prices for natural gas produced in much of the variation in oil and gas Wyoming than for gas produced in areas of employment from 1971 to 1986 (Wen, the country where pipeline capacity is less 2005). competitive (Leonard, 2008). However, a larger contributor to gas With the recent completion of the 1,679- prices is domestic demand, and that mile, Colorado-to-Ohio Rockies Express demand will be determined in large natural gas pipeline (see Map, page 9), a part by the health of the economies price differential that at times was as much at the eastern end of the pipeline and as $4 per thousand cubic feet has virtually points beyond. According to the Energy disappeared (Curran & Farquhar, 2009). Information Administration, 30 states and According to the U.S. Energy Information the District of Columbia are 85% or more Administration, the completion of the three- dependent upon the interstate pipeline Page 8 November 2009
  9. 9. Research & Planning © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Wyoming Department of Employment WYOMING SOUTH DAKOTA MINNESOTA WISCONSIN MICHIGAN REX-ENTREGA NEBRASKA IOWA REX-WEST INDIANA OHIO ILLINOIS COLORADO REX-EAST KANSAS MISSOURI KENTUCKY NEW MEXI CO OKLAHOMA TENNESSEE ARKANSAS Map: Route of the Rockies Express Pipeline network for their natural gas supply and Training Administration’s Monthly (Energy Information Administration, Program and Financial Data tool (http:// 2007). Generally speaking, these states are in the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest, asp). and along the West Coast. Because the customer base and Natural Gas Consumption geographic distribution of consumption is relatively known, we may well anticipate the rate at which Wyoming’s natural gas commodity market can expect to As Table 1 on page 10 shows, the be stimulated as certain regions of the largest consumers of natural gas in the country pull out of the recession. nation are electric power generation and industrial use (28.7% and 28.5% of total This article offers a brief look at consumption for 2008, respectively). natural gas consumption and the Residential use makes up a little employment situation in those states more than one-fifth (21.0%) of total along the Rockies Express pipeline. consumption. And while use of natural Unless otherwise noted, total nonfarm gas for electrical power has increased in employment data were collected for each the nation over the past decade, industrial of the states through the Bureau of Labor use has declined (see Figure 1, page 10; Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics U.S. Energy Information Administration, survey custom table creation tool (http:// 2009a). Part of the decline in industrial and are consumption is due to the decline in seasonally adjusted. For an explanation of manufacturing. As Figure 2 shows (see seasonal adjustment, see the footnote on page 11), manufacturing employment page 20. Unemployment insurance claims in the states along the Rockies Express data were collected via the Employment pipeline route has declined since 1999. November 2009 Page 9
  10. 10. Wyoming Department of Employment © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Research & Planning Table 1: U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by End User, 2008 for Wyoming and Rocky Mountain gas producers. End Use Million Cubic Percentage of Feet Total Electrical Power Total Consumption 23,195,069 100.0% Lease and Plant Fuel 1,272,831 5.5% Generation Pipeline & Distribution Use 626,888 2.7% Of the top 10 states Volumes Delivered to Consumers 21,295,350 91.8% in terms of natural gas Residential 4,865,691 21.0% consumption for electrical Commercial 3,119,988 13.5% power, only New York and Industrial 6,618,631 28.5% New Jersey are east of Vehicle Fuel 30,094 0.1% the terminus of the new Electric Power 6,660,947 28.7% pipeline. Combined, they represented 8.5% of total Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Retrieved December 10, 2009, from http://tonto. consumption for power generation in 2008. However, the use of natural to a large percentage of Industrial use gas for electrical power the nation’s residential gas Although industrial generation and new access customers may bode well consumption of natural gas has been declining nationally, 4 of the top 10 states for natural gas 800,000 consumption for industrial Electric Power Generation purposes are along Industrial the pipeline or near its 700,000 terminus. Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and Pennsylvania 600,000 together represent 15.4% of the national consumption for industrial power. 500,000 Residential use 400,000 Eight of the top 10 Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 states for consumption of natural gas for residential Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Natural Gas Consumption by End Use. Retrieved December 10, 2009, from use are within 500 miles Note: Industrial consumption is de ned as natural gas used for heat, power, or chemical feedstock of the pipeline or its by manufacturing establishments or those engaged in mining or other mineral extractions as well as consumers in agriculture, forestry, sheries, and construction. terminus. Illinois, New York, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Figure 1: Comparison of September U.S. Consumption of Natural Gas for Indiana, and Wisconsin Electrical Power Generation and Industrial Use, 2001 to 2009 combined represent 46.2% Page 10 November 2009
  11. 11. Research & Planning © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Wyoming Department of Employment 110.0% Colorado Wyoming 90.0% Nebraska Kansas Missouri Illinois 70.0% Indiana Ohio 50.0% Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Figure 2: September Manufacturing Employment in States Along the Rockies Express Pipeline Route as a Percentage of September 1999 Manufacturing Employment Levels, 1999 to 2009 of the nation’s residential electrical power generation increased dramatically consumption of natural to fall from 22% to 21% from 1999 to 2009. gas. due to lower coal prices Employment levels in the and increased capacity four easternmost states According to the from renewable sources, on the pipeline – Missouri, Energy Information including wind power. Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio Administration’s (EIA) – were lower in September Short-Term Outlook for 2009 than in September December 8, 2009, overall Employment by 1999. Unemployment natural gas consumption insurance claims in most of State: A Measure for 2009 is expected to be the states along the pipeline down by 1.9%, and by an of Potential Gas route increased over the additional 0.4% in 2010 Consumption year from September 2008 (2009b). EIA expects the to September 2009, but had Henry Hub spot price for decreased over the month 2010 to be $0.67 higher As Figures 3 and 4 from August. Seasonally than the estimated 2009 show (see pages 12 and 13, adjusted unemployment price, despite record- respectively), employment rates for all but three states high working inventories levels in each of the eight declined from August to of natural gas and lower states along the new September but remained consumption due to mild pipeline have declined higher over the year. In weather in November. over the past year, but Illinois and Wyoming, the The EIA also expects Wyoming’s employment natural gas’ share of level for September 2009 (Text continued on page 13) November 2009 Page 11
  12. 12. Wyoming Department of Employment © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Research & Planning 2,353.9 Colorado 2,245.2 2,240.1 301.1 Wyoming 287.8 287.4 964.2 Nebraska 949.6 944.4 1,388.3 Kansas 1,337.1 Sept 2008 1,330.9 Aug 2009 2,790.2 Missouri 2,712.9 Sept 2009 2,710.5 5,941.6 Illinois 5,648.9 5,638.8 2,946.9 Indiana 2,806.7 2,804.0 5,355.3 Ohio 5,103.1 5,097.0 0.0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Total Nonfarm Employment (Thousands) Figure 3: Total Nonfarm Employment in States Along the Rockies Express Pipeline Route. Source: Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, a joint federal-state cooperative survey of establishments. Page 12 November 2009
  13. 13. Research & Planning © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Wyoming Department of Employment (Text continued from page 11) for mining, and construction of buildings (Colorado Department of Labor & unemployment rate increased over the Employment, 2009a) – all relatively high month, and in Missouri it was unchanged. paying industries. Research & Planning publishes Employment on unemployment rates for all states each Colorado’s 12.0% month in Wyoming Labor Force Trends; Western Slope, 10.0% readers may want to watch the following where the 8.0% states’ rates to gain a better sense of where Rockies Express 6.0% the natural gas market is headed. originates, is 4.0% heavily dependent upon mining and 2.0% Colorado 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 oil and gas From September 2008 to September development. 2009, total nonfarm payroll employment in Local Figure 5: Colorado seasonally Colorado declined by 112,100 jobs. Over that communities adjusted unemployment rate, period, the state lost 28,300 jobs in likely will see a 1999 to 2009 professional & business services and 25,600 benefit if the jobs in construction. According to the price differential between Rockies Express Colorado Department of Labor and natural gas and natural gas sold elsewhere Employment, the three slowest growing remains small. The September 2009 industries are computer and electronic unemployment rate for Colorado was 7.0%, a product manufacturing, support activities decrease from August (7.3%; see Figure 5), 130.0% Percentage of September 1999 Levels 120.0% Wyoming Colorado Nebraska Kansas 110.0% Missouri Illinois Indiana 100.0% Ohio 90.0% Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Figure 4: September Employment in States Along the Rockies Express Pipeline as a Percentage of September 1999 Employment Levels, 1999 to 2009 November 2009 Page 13
  14. 14. Wyoming Department of Employment © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Research & Planning but higher than the September 2008 rate, from 6.6% in August to 6.8% in September 5.0% (Colorado, 2009b). (not a statistically significant increase; see Figure 6), it remained lower than Initial unemployment claims were the national rate of 9.8%. Over the year, 156.8% higher in September 2009 than Wyoming employment decreased by 12,900 they were a year earlier, while continued jobs (4.2%). The largest job losses were in weeks claimed for the month were natural resources & mining (-6,000 jobs, 231.3% higher than for September 2008 or -19.9%) and construction (-4,600 jobs, (Employment & Training Administration, or -15.3%). Over the month, seasonal job 2009). gains in government (5,300 jobs) were more than offset by job losses in most industry sectors. County unemployment Wyoming rates for September increased in most From first quarter 1988 through fourth counties, and ranged from 8.2% in Big quarter 2008, Wyoming’s unemployment Horn County to 3.6% in Albany County insurance-covered employment grew – a (see page 25). stretch of economic expansion in which Wyoming total payroll topped the $3 Initial unemployment insurance claims billion mark in September 2008 and a were 201.9% higher in September 2009 record was set than in September 2008, but the 2,804 for number of 12.0% claims were far fewer than the 4,796 jobs in the state 10.0% reported in March 2009. Continued weeks (294,463). But 8.0% claimed were 335.6% higher in September in first quarter 2009 than in September 2008. The 29,356 6.0% 2009, the 21- continued claims for September 2009 4.0% year streak of were considerably lower than the 36,620 over-the-year 2.0% for August 2009 and the peak of 43,026 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 growth ended, for May 2009. Wyoming unemployment as the national insurance claims are published each recession that Figure 6: Wyoming seasonally month in Wyoming Labor Force Trends. began in adjusted unemployment rate, December 2007 1999 to 2009 began to show Nebraska effects in Wyoming. Total payroll declined From September 2008 to September by $36.0 million, and job growth fell to 2009, Nebraska non-farm employment -1.1%. Employment declined by 3,535 jobs declined by an estimated 23,434 jobs, in construction, and by 1,121 jobs in retail including a decline of 9,979 manufacturing trade. Job losses were also seen in jobs. The state’s seasonally adjusted accommodation & food services, unemployment rate increased over the manufacturing, and administrative & year from 3.4% to 4.9%, but remained far waste services. Job gains occurred in below the national unemployment rate (see state, local and federal government and in Figure 7, page 15). (Unemployment Rate health care & social assistance, and other Information for September 2009) services (Bullard, 2009). Nebraska’s initial unemployment claims Although Wyoming’s seasonally declined from 7,634 in August 2009 to adjusted unemployment rate increased 7,159 in September, but were still higher Page 14 November 2009
  15. 15. Research & Planning © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Wyoming Department of Employment than the 4,964 initial claims reported in 17,574 in September, just 1,666 higher September than the number for September 2008 2008. 12.0% (15,908). Continued claims declined by Continued 10.0% 43,030 over the month, but were 62.5% claims declined 8.0% higher than the September 2008 level. from 91,709 in 6.0% August to 70,911 in 4.0% Missouri September, but 2.0% 1999 Total nonfarm employment in Missouri 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 remained nearly declined by an estimated 79,700 jobs from double the September 2008 to September 2009, and September Figure 7: Nebraska seasonally by 2,400 jobs from August 2009 to 2008 level of adjusted unemployment rate, September 2009. The largest over-the-year 37,738. 1999 to 2009 losses were in manufacturing (-29,100), construction (-18,800), and Kansas professional & 12.0% 10.0% Kansas lost an estimated 59,700 jobs business 8.0% from September 2008 to September 2009, services a 4.3% decrease. Among the sectors with (-15,000). Gains 6.0% job losses were manufacturing (-26,400 in educational 4.0% jobs), professional & business services & health 2.0% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 (-13,400), and trade, transportation, & services (8,600) utilities and government (-8,700). (7,300) were 12.0% Figure 9: Missouri seasonally Continued more than offset adjusted unemployment rate, 10.0% claims for by losses in 1999 to 2009 8.0% unemployment these and other insurance 6.0% sectors (Bureau declined from 4.0% of Labor Statistics, 2009). 222,219 in 2.0% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 August to Missouri’s seasonally adjusted 180,202 in unemployment rate was unchanged from September, but August to September (9.5%), and up from Figure 8: Kansas seasonally were still 6.3% in September 2008 (see Figure adjusted unemployment rate, substantially 1999 to 2009 9; Missouri Department of Economic higher than the Development, 2009). 109,253 claims in September 2008. The state unemployment rate declined from 7.2% in Illinois August to 6.9% in September, but was still Total nonfarm employment in Illinois considerably higher than the 4.6% rate of decreased by 302,800 from September September 2008 (see Figure 8; Kansas 2008 to September 2009, and by 10,100 Department of Labor, 2009). from August 2009 to September 2009. The largest over-the-year job losses were in Initial unemployment insurance claims manufacturing (-79,100 jobs), professional dropped from 20,750 in August 2009 to & business services (-72,000), and trade, November 2009 Page 15
  16. 16. Wyoming Department of Employment © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Research & Planning transportation, & utilities (-61,100). Total peak of 108,832 claims the state hit in employment declined from August 2009 December 2008. Over-the-month initial to September 2009 by 10,100 jobs despite claims were lower as well, down 5,469 a gain of 8,200 in government (Illinois from August 2009. Continued claims, Department of Employment Security, which peaked at 785,747 in March 2009, 2009a). increased from 287,663 in September 2008 to 392,016 Illinois’ seasonally adjusted in September 12.0% unemployment rate rose from 10.0% in 2009, but 10.0% August to 10.5% in September. The rate in declined from 8.0% September 2008 was 6.7% (see Figure 10; August to 6.0% Illinois Department of Employment September by 4.0% Security, 2009b). 128,213. 2.0% 12.0% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Initial 10.0% Indiana’s unemployment seasonally 8.0% insurance adjusted Figure 11: Indiana seasonally 6.0% claims in unemployment adjusted unemployment rate, Illinois 4.0% rate rose 1999 to 2009 increased by 2.0% from 6.1% in 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 21,981 from September 2008 to 9.7% in September September 2008 2009, but declined over the month from to September Figure 10: Illinois seasonally 9.9% in August (see Figure 11). 2009, but adjusted unemployment rate, decreased 1999 to 2009 from August Ohio to September by 1,924. Continued weeks Total nonfarm employment in Ohio claimed were up by 506,031 over the decreased by 258,100 from September year, but down by 86,455 from August to 2008 to September 2009, with the largest September. job losses in manufacturing (-115,900), professional & business services (-54,100), and trade, transportation, & utilities Indiana (-51,700). From September 2008 to September According to a 12.0% 2009, Indiana shed an estimated 135,800 report by the 10.0% jobs, including 73,600 in manufacturing, Ohio Department 8.0% 24,900 in trade, transportation, & utilities, of Job and 6.0% and 23,800 in construction. Over-the- Family Services, month job gains were seen in government Ohio’s 4.0% (3,600 jobs), manufacturing (3,000), employment 2.0% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 and professional & business services peaked in 2000, (2,900; Indiana Department of Workforce but never fully Development, 2009). recovered from Figure 12: Ohio seasonally the 2001 adjusted unemployment rate, Initial unemployment claims declined recession. In 1999 to 2009 from 41,012 in September 2008 to 35,627 both goods- in September 2009 and far lower than the producing and services-providing sectors, Page 16 November 2009
  17. 17. Research & Planning © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Wyoming Department of Employment Ohio has underperformed U.S. averages seen effects of the current economic since 2000 (Horner, 2009). downturn, although several are showing signs of recovery through reductions in Ohio’s seasonally adjusted unemployment insurance claims and unemployment rate for September 2009 lower unemployment rates. Total nonfarm was 10.1%, down from 10.8% in August employment in all of the states along the 2009, but higher than the September 2008 pipeline was lower in September 2009 rate of 6.8%. than in September 2008. Initial unemployment insurance claims in Ohio fell from 75,503 in August 2009 References to 67,321 in September 2009, still 1,660 higher over the year, but far lower than the peak of 144,682 from December 2008. Bullard, D. (2009). Covered employment Continued claims fell from 1,021,347 and wages for first quarter 2009: Jobs in August to 746,758 in September. and payroll decrease from year-ago levels. There were 467,481 continued claims in Wyoming Labor Force Trends, 46(10), September 2008. 1. Retrieved November 29, 2009, from Summary Bureau of Labor Statistics. (n.d.). Employment, hours, and earnings from the Current Employment Statistics The Wyoming economy is closely tied survey (state and metro area). Retrieved to natural gas production, but Rocky December 10, 2009, from http://data.bls. Mountain gas producers have historically gov/cgi-bin/dsrv?sm been paid less for gas than producers in other markets because they have had Colorado Department of Labor and to compete for limited pipeline capacity. Employment (2009). Labor Market Facts: This disparity will likely be diminished What Are the Slowest-Growing Jobs in an by the addition of the Rockies Express Area? Retrieved November 27, 2009, from Pipeline to the nation’s gas distribution Long-Term Industry Projections, 2008-2018. system. This new pipeline opens new markets for Wyoming natural gas, but Curran, D., & Farquhar, B. (2009, prices will still be driven by demand in November 17). Gov celebrates the states along the pipeline and points opening of Rockies Express Pipeline. beyond. Use of natural gas for electrical Wyoming Business Report. Retrieved power generation is expected to decline November 24, 2009, from http://www. somewhat in the short term, but has been increasing overall since 2001. Industrial asp?id=103047 consumption has declined over the same period. Residential use makes up a Employment & Training Administration, smaller percentage of overall consumption, United States Department of Labor. but Wyoming gas producers will now have (2009). Monthly Program and Financial greater access to a larger percentage of Data. Retrieved December 8, 2009, from the nation’s residential gas customers. All of the states along the pipeline have claimssum.asp November 2009 Page 17
  18. 18. Wyoming Department of Employment © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS Research & Planning Energy Information Administration. adjusted employment estimates. Retrieved (2007). Interstate Natural Gas Supply December 10, 2009, from http://www. Dependency, 2007. Retrieved November 24, 2009, from aspx pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/analysis_ publications/ngpipeline/interstate.html Kansas Department of Labor. (2009, October 21). September 2009 Labor Energy Information Administration. Report. Retrieved November 29, 2009, (2009a). Expansion of the U.S. natural from gas pipeline network: Additions in 2008 pr0910/pr0910.html and projects through 2011. Retrieved December 21, 2009, from http://www. Leonard, D. W. (2008). Barriers to Growth in Wyoming’s Economy. Wyoming Labor feature_articles/2009/pipelinenetwork/ Force Trends, 45(5), 1-11. pipelinenetwork.pdf Missouri Department of Economic Energy Information Administration. Development. (2009, October 14). DED (2009b). Short-Term Energy Outlook. releases September 2009 state jobs Retrieved. December 21, 2009, from report. Retrieved December 10, 2009, from contents.html Horner, L., & Calig, J. (2009). In 2009 Nebraska Department of Labor. (2009, Economic analysis: Responding to November). Unemployment Rate recession, preparing for recovery. Ohio Information for September 2009 (n.d.). Department of Job and Family Services, Retrieved November 29, 2009, from Office. Retrieved November 29, 2009, from es/trends/trends/Nov09/County%20 hioEconomicAnalysis.pdf Unemployment%20Rates.pdf Illinois Department of Employment Ohio Department of Job and Family Security. (2009a) CES Monthly Statewide Services. (2009, October 16). Ohio and Data file. Retrieved December 10, 2009, U.S. employment situation (seasonally from adjusted). Retrieved December 21, 2009, cesmonthlysa.htm from 200910/UnempPressRelease.asp Illinois Department of Employment Security. (2009b, November 19). Wen, S. (2005). Oil and gas production National recession pushes state rate and the relationship between prices to 11.0 percent. Retrieved December and employment in Wyoming. Wyoming 10, 2009, from http://www.illinois. Labor Force Trends, 42(9), gov/PressReleases/ShowPressRelease. 1. Retrieved November cfm?SubjectID=1&RecNum=8038 24, 2009, from http://doe. Indiana Department of Workforce a1.htm Development. (2009). Publications Lookup Tool. Monthly CES seasonally Page 18 November 2009
  19. 19. Twelve-Month Percentage Point Increase in Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates by State, September 2008 to September 2009 Research & Planning November 2009 AK WA MT ME ND OR VT MN NH ID SD NY MA WI WY MI CT RI PA NJ IA NE DE NV OH IL IN MD UT CA WV DC CO VA KS MO KY © WYOMING LABOR FORCE TRENDS NC TN AZ OK NM AR SC Increase in Percentage Points MS AL GA from September 2008 to September 2009 TX More than 4.4% LA FL 3.0% to 4.4% HI 1.5% to 2.9% Less than 1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics program. Extracted January 4, 2010. Page 19 Wyoming Department of Employment