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2009 11 09 The Lean Startup Oulu Edition Presentation Transcript

  • 1. The Lean Startup#leanstartup
    Eric Ries (@ericries)
    http://StartupLessonsLearned.com
  • 2. Event sponsors
  • 3. Most Startups Fail
  • 4. Most Startups Fail
  • 5. Most Startups Fail
  • 6. Most Startups Fail
    But it doesn’t have to be that way.
    We can do better.
    This talk is about how.
  • 7. What is a startup?
    A startup is a human institution designed to deliver a new product or service under conditions of extreme uncertainty.
    Nothing to do with size of company, sector of the economy, or industry
  • 8. The Pivot
    What do successful startups have in common?
    They started out as digital cash for PDAs, but evolved into online payments for eBay.
    They started building BASIC interpreters, but evolved into the world's largest operating systems monopoly.
    They were shocked to discover their online games company was actually a photo-sharing site.
    Pivot: change directions but stay grounded in what we’ve learned.
    http://startuplessonslearned.blogspot.com/2009/06/pivot-dont-jump-to-new-vision.html
  • 9. Speed Wins
    if we can reduce the time between major iterations
    we can increase our odds of success
  • 10. A Tale of Two Startups
  • 11. Startup #1
  • 12. Stealth Startup Circa 2001
  • 13. All about the team
  • 14. A good plan?
    Start a company with a compelling long-term vision.
    Raise plenty of capital.
    Hire the absolute best and the brightest.
    Hire an experienced management team with tons of startup experience.
    Focus on quality.
    Build a world-class technology platform.
    Build buzz in the press and blogosphere.
  • 15. Achieving Failure
    Company failed utterly, $40MM and five years of pain.
    Crippled by “shadow beliefs” that destroyed the effort of all those smart people.
  • 16. Shadow Belief #1
    We know what customers want.
  • 17. Shadow Belief #2
    We can accurately predict the future.
  • 18. Shadow Belief #3
    Advancing the plan is progress.
  • 19. A good plan?
    Start a company with a compelling long-term vision.
    Raise plenty of capital.
    Hire the absolute best and the brightest.
    Hire an experienced management team with tons of startup experience.
    Focus on quality.
    Build a world-class technology platform.
    Build buzz in the press and blogosphere.
  • 20. Startup #2
  • 21. IMVU
     
  • 22. IMVU
     
  • 23. New plan
    Shipped in six months – a horribly buggy beta product
    Charged from day one
    Shipped multiple times a day (by 2008, on average 50 times a day)
    No PR, no launch
    Results 2009: profitable, revenue > $20MM
  • 24. Lean Startups Go Faster
    Commodity technology stack, highly leveraged (free/open source, user-generated content, SEM).
    Customer development – find out what customers want before you build it.
    Agile (lean) product development – but tuned to the startup condition.
  • 25. Customer Development
    • Continuous cycle of customer interaction
    • 26. Rapid hypothesis testing about market, pricing, customers, …
    • 27. Extreme low cost, low burn, tight focus
    • 28. Measurable gates for investors
    http://bit.ly/FourSteps
  • 29. Agile Product Development(A tale of two startups, revisited)
    • Principles drawn from Lean Manufacturing and Toyota Production System
    • 30. These examples are drawn from software startups, but increasingly:
    • 31. All products require software
    • 32. All companies are operating in a startup-like environment of extreme uncertainty
  • Traditional Product Development
    Unit of Progress: Advance to Next Stage
    Waterfall
    Requirements
    Specification
    Design
    Problem: known
    Solution: known
    Implementation
    Verification
    Maintenance
  • 33. Agile Product Development
    Unit of Progress: A line of Working Code
    “Product Owner” or in-house customer
    Problem: known
    Solution: unknown
  • 34. Product Development at Lean Startup
    Unit of Progress: Validated Learning About Customers ($$$)
    Customer Development
    Hypotheses,
    Experiments,
    Insights
    Problem: unknown
    Data,
    Feedback,
    Insights
    Solution: unknown
  • 35. Minimize TOTAL time through the loop
    IDEAS
    LEARN
    BUILD
    DATA
    CODE
    MEASURE
  • 36. There’s much more…
    IDEAS
    Code Faster
    Learn Faster
    BUILD
    LEARN
    Unit Tests
    Usability Tests
    Continuous Integration
    Incremental Deployment
    Free & Open-Source Components
    Cloud Computing
    Cluster Immune System
    Just-in-time Scalability
    Refactoring
    Developer Sandbox
    Minimum Viable Product
    Split Tests
    Customer Interviews
    Customer Development
    Five Whys Root Cause Analysis
    Customer Advisory Board
    Falsifiable Hypotheses
    Product Owner Accountability
    Customer Archetypes
    Cross-functional Teams
    Semi-autonomous Teams
    Smoke Tests
    CODE
    DATA
    Measure Faster
    MEASURE
    Split Tests
    Clear Product Owner
    Continuous Deployment
    Usability Tests
    Real-time Monitoring
    Customer Liaison
    Funnel Analysis
    Cohort Analysis
    Net Promoter Score
    Search Engine Marketing
    Real-Time Alerting
    Predictive Monitoring
  • 37. There’s much more…
    Startup Lessons Learned
    (season one 2008-2009)
    Every essay from the blog’s first year
    Beta version available for the first time today
    http://bit.ly/SLLbookbeta
  • 38. Thanks!
    • Startup Lessons Learned Blog
    • 39. http://StartupLessonsLearned.com/
    • 40. Getting in touch (#leanstartup)
    • 41. http://twitter.com/ericries
    • 42. eric@theleanstartup.com
    • 43. Startup Lessons Learned – in print
    • 44. Beta version available today
    • 45. http://bit.ly/SLLbookbeta
  • Part Two
  • 46. How to build a Lean Startup
    Let’s talk about some specifics.
    Continuous deployment
    Minimum Viable Product
    Five why’s
  • 47. Continuous Deployment
    IDEAS
    LEARN
    BUILD
    Learn Faster
    Customer Development
    Five Whys
    Build Faster
    Continuous Deployment
    Small Batches
    Continuous Integration
    Refactoring
    DATA
    CODE
    MEASURE
    Measure Faster
    Split Testing
    Actionable Metrics
    Net Promoter Score
    SEM
  • 48. Continuous Deployment
    • Deploy new software quickly
    • 49. At IMVU time from check-in to production = 20 minutes
    • 50. Tell a good change from a bad change (quickly)
    • 51. Revert a bad change quickly
    • 52. And “shut down the line”
    • 53. Work in small batches
    • 54. At IMVU, a large batch = 3 days worth of work
    • 55. Break large projects down into small batches
  • Cluster Immune System
    What it looks like to ship one piece of code to production:
    • Run tests locally (SimpleTest, Selenium)
    • 56. Everyone has a complete sandbox
    • 57. Continuous Integration Server (BuildBot)
    • 58. All tests must pass or “shut down the line”
    • 59. Automatic feedback if the team is going too fast
    • 60. Incremental deploy
    • 61. Monitor cluster and business metrics in real-time
    • 62. Reject changes that move metrics out-of-bounds
    • 63. Alerting & Predictive monitoring (Nagios)
    • 64. Monitor all metrics that stakeholders care about
    • 65. If any metric goes out-of-bounds, wake somebody up
    • 66. Use historical trends to predict acceptable bounds
    When customers see a failure:
    • Fix the problem for customers
    • 67. Improve your defenses at each level
  • Minimum Viable Product
    IDEAS
    Code Faster
    Learn Faster
    BUILD
    LEARN
    Continuous
    Deployment
    Minimum Viable
    Product
    CODE
    DATA
    Measure Faster
    MEASURE
    Rapid Split Tests
  • 68. Possible Approaches
    “Maximize chances of success”
    Build a great product with many features that increase the odds that customers will want it
    Problem: no feedback until the end, might be too late to adjust
    “Release early, release often”
    Get as much feedback as possible, as soon as possible
    Problem: run around in circles, chasing what customers think they want
  • 69. Minimum Viable Product
    The minimum set of features needed to learn from earlyvangelists – visionary early adopters
    Avoid building products that nobody wants
    Maximize the learning per dollar spent
    Get the facts before it’s too late
    Probably much more minimum than you think!
  • 70. Minimum Viable Product
    Visionary customers can “fill in the gaps” on missing features, if the product solves a real problem
    Allows us to achieve a big vision in small increments without going in circles
    Requires a commitment to iteration
  • 71. Fears
    False negative: “customers would have liked the full product, but the MVP sucks, so we abandoned the vision”
    Visionary complex: “but customers don’t know what they want!”
    Too busy to learn: “it would be faster to just build it right, all this measuring distracts from delighting customers”
  • 72. Don’t Launch
    IDEAS
    Code Faster
    Learn Faster
    BUILD
    LEARN
    Continuous
    Deployment
    Don’t Launch
    CODE
    DATA
    Measure Faster
    MEASURE
    Rapid Split Tests
  • 73. Don’t Launch
    What is a launch?
    Marketing Launch
    Announce a new product, start its PR campaign, and engage in buzz marketing activities.
    Product Launch
    Make a new product available to customers in the general public.
  • 74. Effects of Marketing Launch
    Drive customers into your sales pipeline
    Establish credibility with potential partners
    Help you raise money
    … however …
  • 75. Other Consequences
    A marketing launch establishes your positioning
    Waste customers on a non-working business model
    You never get a second chance to launch
  • 76. Why do we launch?
    Investors push for it (ego?)
    Founders push for it (ego?)
    Fear of the accidental launch
    Instead: build a Minimum Viable Product, establish small but renewable audience, iterate iterate iterate
  • 77. Know When to Launch
    When you have a strategy for the launch
    Know the success metrics
    Know your fundamental driver of growth
    Know where, when, and how to launch
    Launch when you can predict the future
  • 78. Five Whys
    IDEAS
    Code Faster
    Learn Faster
    BUILD
    LEARN
    Continuous
    Deployment
    Five Whys Root
    Cause Analysis
    CODE
    DATA
    Measure Faster
    MEASURE
    Rapid Split Tests
  • 79. Five Whys Root Cause Analysis
    • A technique for continuous improvement of company process.
    • 80. Ask “why” five times when something unexpected happens.
    • 81. Make proportional investments in prevention at all five levels of the hierarchy.
    • 82. Behind every supposed technical problem is usually a human problem. Fix the cause, not just the symptom.
  • Get Started Today
    You are ready to do this, no matter
    who you are
    what job you have
    what stage of company you’re in
    Get started now, today.
  • 83. There’s much more…
    IDEAS
    Code Faster
    Learn Faster
    BUILD
    LEARN
    Unit Tests
    Usability Tests
    Continuous Integration
    Incremental Deployment
    Free & Open-Source Components
    Cloud Computing
    Cluster Immune System
    Just-in-time Scalability
    Refactoring
    Developer Sandbox
    Minimum Viable Product
    Split Tests
    Customer Interviews
    Customer Development
    Five Whys Root Cause Analysis
    Customer Advisory Board
    Falsifiable Hypotheses
    Product Owner Accountability
    Customer Archetypes
    Cross-functional Teams
    Semi-autonomous Teams
    Smoke Tests
    CODE
    DATA
    Measure Faster
    MEASURE
    Split Tests
    Clear Product Owner
    Continuous Deployment
    Usability Tests
    Real-time Monitoring
    Customer Liaison
    Funnel Analysis
    Cohort Analysis
    Net Promoter Score
    Search Engine Marketing
    Real-Time Alerting
    Predictive Monitoring
  • 84. There’s much more…
    Startup Lessons Learned
    (season one 2008-2009)
    Every essay from the blog’s first year
    Beta version available for the first time today
    http://bit.ly/SLLbookbeta
  • 85. Thanks!
    • Startup Lessons Learned Blog
    • 86. http://StartupLessonsLearned.com/
    • 87. Getting in touch (#leanstartup)
    • 88. http://twitter.com/ericries
    • 89. eric@theleanstartup.com
    • 90. Startup Lessons Learned – in print
    • 91. Beta version available today
    • 92. http://bit.ly/SLLbookbeta
  • Backup
  • 93. Rapid Split Tests
    IDEAS
    Code Faster
    Learn Faster
    BUILD
    LEARN
    Continuous
    Deployment
    Five Whys Root
    Cause Analysis
    CODE
    DATA
    Measure Faster
    MEASURE
    Rapid Split Tests
  • 94. Split-testing all the time
    A/B testing is key to validating your hypotheses
    Has to be simple enough for everyone to use and understand it
    Make creating a split-test no more than one line of code:
    if( setup_experiment(...) == "control" ) {
    // do it the old way
    } else {
    // do it the new way
    }
  • 95. The AAA’s of Metrics
    Actionable
    Accessible
    Auditable
  • 96. Measure the Macro
    Always look at cohort-based metrics over time
    Split-test the small, measure the large