Rob Coneybeer - Lightning talk: Why Dungeons and Dragons (not science fiction) predicts our future

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Startupfest 2014 - As the Internet of Things becomes the Internet of Everything, we're entering a world where every object becomes an enchanted object. With the advent of essentially free …

Startupfest 2014 - As the Internet of Things becomes the Internet of Everything, we're entering a world where every object becomes an enchanted object. With the advent of essentially free computation, memory, and wireless technology, Internet connectivity will be woven into everything valuable enough to be bought, sold, or stolen. People who write code are the sorcerers of tomorrow.

Humanity’s future as a spacefaring species isn’t going to happen anytime soon. Fundamental physical constraints are held back by advances in energy technology that increase at only 3-5% per year, versus the 18-month doubling in electronics due to Moore’s Law. Together with advances in biotechnology, and virtual reality headsets that (literally) make your head spin, our future technology of the next 100 years is going to follow a virtual and literal path of Dungeons and Dragons, not spaceflight.

A world of enchanted objects is already arriving – thermostats that program themselves, phones that retrieve and display information based on voice commands, cars and planes that drive themselves – all of these things impact every part of our lives. As an experienced early stage investor in successful Internet of Things companies like Nest and Mocana, Rob plans to share his views about what’s highly predictable about this trend, and how entrepreneurs can capitalize on it.

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Transcript

  • 1. Dungeons & Dragons (not Star Trek) Predicts Our Future Rob Coneybeer Shasta Ventures
  • 2. How to Make Big Money Right 1.5x 20x+ Wrong 0 0 Consensus Contrarian
  • 3. “We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.” – Peter Thiel
  • 4. Star Trek • Spacecraft – Impulse drive (STL) – Warp drive (FTL) • Teleportation • Robots & AI
  • 5. Impulse Drive • Slower-than-light (STL) • Energy to accelerate one ton to 10% of lightspeed: 0.45 EJ • Energy released in Tsar Bomba (1961): 0.24 EJ
  • 6. Warp Drive • Faster-than-light (FTL) • Estimated energy to create a small warp bubble: 65 EJ • Energy used by the entire U.S. in 2013: 103 EJ
  • 7. Teleportation • Human body: – 1027 atoms – 1045 bits • billion-trillion-trillion Terabyte-capacity hard drive
  • 8. Robots & AI A computer just passed the Turing Test in landmark trial – June 9, 2014 “We are proud to declare that Alan Turing’s Test was passed for the first time on Saturday,” declared Kevin Warwick, a visiting professor at the University of Reading, which organized the event at the Royal Society in London. “In the field of Artificial Intelligence there is no more iconic and controversial milestone than the Turing Test, when a computer convinces a sufficient number of interrogators into believing that it is not a machine but rather is a human.”
  • 9. Star Trek • Spacecraft – Impulse drive (STL) – Warp drive (FTL) • Teleportation • Robots & AI
  • 10. Dungeons & Dragons • Enchanted Objects • Casting Spells • Flying Creatures • Bioengineered Organisms
  • 11. Enchanted Objects
  • 12. Magic Wands
  • 13. Invisibility Army tests James Bond style tank that is ‘invisible’ – October, 2007 New technology that can make tanks invisible has been unveiled by the Ministry of Defence. In secret trials last week, the Army said it had made a vehicle completely disappear.
  • 14. Magic Mirrors
  • 15. Flying Creatures
  • 16. Bioengineered Organisms
  • 17. “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” – Arthur C. Clarke
  • 18. “Magic, like everything else, has rules.” – Watt-Evans’ Fifth Law of Fantasy
  • 19. Modern Enchanted Objects • Device energy budgets dominated by wireless • Assume 100mW power draw/device – non-stop, for 1 year • Each device draws 3.15 x 106 J/yr • One Warp Drive (65 EJ) could power 20 Trillion modern enchanted objects for a year
  • 20. Dungeons & Dragons • Enchanted Objects • Casting Spells • Flying Creatures • Bioengineered Organisms
  • 21. So what are the implications? (3:40pm on the “Future Of” stage) Rob Coneybeer Shasta Ventures @robconeybeer http://280.vc