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Dungeons & Dragons (not Star Trek)
Predicts Our Future
Rob Coneybeer
Shasta Ventures
How to Make Big Money
Right 1.5x 20x+
Wrong 0 0
Consensus Contrarian
“We wanted flying cars, instead
we got 140 characters.”
– Peter Thiel
Star Trek
• Spacecraft
– Impulse drive (STL)
– Warp drive (FTL)
• Teleportation
• Robots & AI
Star Trek
• Spacecraft
– Impulse drive (STL)
– Warp drive (FTL)
• Teleportation
• Robots & AI
Dungeons & Dragons
• Enchanted Objects
• Casting Spells
• Flying Creatures
• Bioengineered
Organisms
Modern Enchanted Objects
• Device energy budgets dominated by wireless
• Assume 100mW power draw/device
– non-stop, for 1 ...
Dungeons & Dragons
• Enchanted Objects
• Casting Spells
• Flying Creatures
• Bioengineered
Organisms
“Any sufficiently advanced
technology is indistinguishable
from magic.”
– Arthur C. Clarke
The Mystery of Life
How do I create and evaluate
an idea for a new company?
Creating Startup Ideas
Creating Startup Ideas
• Imagine the future …
… look at trends and extrapolate
Creating Startup Ideas
• Imagine the future …
… look at trends and extrapolate
• Think about products & services where …
…...
Creating Startup Ideas
• Imagine the future …
… look at trends and extrapolate
• Think about products & services where …
…...
Evaluating Startup Ideas
Evaluating Startup Ideas
1. Does it solve a real problem?
Evaluating Startup Ideas
1. Does it solve a real problem?
2. Does it solve a problem in a big market?
Evaluating Startup Ideas
1. Does it solve a real problem?
2. Does it solve a problem in a big market?
3. Can the solution ...
Evaluating Startup Ideas
1. Does it solve a real problem?
2. Does it solve a problem in a big market?
3. Can the solution ...
Can I Build the Right Team?
Character Abilities
• Strength
• Constitution
• Dexterity
• Intelligence
• Wisdom
• Charisma
Luck
• It’s about changing
the odds in your
favor
– imagine a casino
where you’re
encouraged to bring
your own dice
Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
1. Focus on ideas that weren’t possible before
Final Thoughts
1. Focus on ideas that weren’t possible before
2. Be intellectually honest
Final Thoughts
1. Focus on ideas that weren’t possible before
2. Be intellectually honest
3. Create opportunities for luck
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Rob Coneybeer (full length) - Why Dungeons and Dragons (not science fiction) predicts our future

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Startupfest 2014 - "As the Internet of Things becomes the Internet of Everything, we're entering a world where every object becomes an enchanted object. With the advent of essentially free computation, memory, and wireless technology, Internet connectivity will be woven into everything valuable enough to be bought, sold, or stolen. People who write code are the sorcerers of tomorrow.

Humanity’s future as a spacefaring species isn’t going to happen anytime soon. Fundamental physical constraints are held back by advances in energy technology that increase at only 3-5% per year, versus the 18-month doubling in electronics due to Moore’s Law. Together with advances in biotechnology, and virtual reality headsets that (literally) make your head spin, our future technology of the next 100 years is going to follow a virtual and literal path of Dungeons and Dragons, not spaceflight.

A world of enchanted objects is already arriving – thermostats that program themselves, phones that retrieve and display information based on voice commands, cars and planes that drive themselves – all of these things impact every part of our lives. As an experienced early stage investor in successful Internet of Things companies like Nest and Mocana, Rob plans to share his views about what’s highly predictable about this trend, and how entrepreneurs can capitalize on it."

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Transcript of "Rob Coneybeer (full length) - Why Dungeons and Dragons (not science fiction) predicts our future"

  1. 1. Dungeons & Dragons (not Star Trek) Predicts Our Future Rob Coneybeer Shasta Ventures
  2. 2. How to Make Big Money Right 1.5x 20x+ Wrong 0 0 Consensus Contrarian
  3. 3. “We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.” – Peter Thiel
  4. 4. Star Trek • Spacecraft – Impulse drive (STL) – Warp drive (FTL) • Teleportation • Robots & AI
  5. 5. Star Trek • Spacecraft – Impulse drive (STL) – Warp drive (FTL) • Teleportation • Robots & AI
  6. 6. Dungeons & Dragons • Enchanted Objects • Casting Spells • Flying Creatures • Bioengineered Organisms
  7. 7. Modern Enchanted Objects • Device energy budgets dominated by wireless • Assume 100mW power draw/device – non-stop, for 1 year • Each device draws 3.15 x 106 J/yr • One Warp Drive (65 EJ) could power 20 Trillion modern enchanted objects for a year
  8. 8. Dungeons & Dragons • Enchanted Objects • Casting Spells • Flying Creatures • Bioengineered Organisms
  9. 9. “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” – Arthur C. Clarke
  10. 10. The Mystery of Life
  11. 11. How do I create and evaluate an idea for a new company?
  12. 12. Creating Startup Ideas
  13. 13. Creating Startup Ideas • Imagine the future … … look at trends and extrapolate
  14. 14. Creating Startup Ideas • Imagine the future … … look at trends and extrapolate • Think about products & services where … … something wasn’t possible before, based on inflection points in technology
  15. 15. Creating Startup Ideas • Imagine the future … … look at trends and extrapolate • Think about products & services where … … something wasn’t possible before, based on inflection points in technology • Keep an open mind … … but be intellectually honest
  16. 16. Evaluating Startup Ideas
  17. 17. Evaluating Startup Ideas 1. Does it solve a real problem?
  18. 18. Evaluating Startup Ideas 1. Does it solve a real problem? 2. Does it solve a problem in a big market?
  19. 19. Evaluating Startup Ideas 1. Does it solve a real problem? 2. Does it solve a problem in a big market? 3. Can the solution make money?
  20. 20. Evaluating Startup Ideas 1. Does it solve a real problem? 2. Does it solve a problem in a big market? 3. Can the solution make money? 4. Can you build a sustainable advantage around the solution?
  21. 21. Can I Build the Right Team?
  22. 22. Character Abilities • Strength • Constitution • Dexterity • Intelligence • Wisdom • Charisma
  23. 23. Luck • It’s about changing the odds in your favor – imagine a casino where you’re encouraged to bring your own dice
  24. 24. Final Thoughts
  25. 25. Final Thoughts 1. Focus on ideas that weren’t possible before
  26. 26. Final Thoughts 1. Focus on ideas that weren’t possible before 2. Be intellectually honest
  27. 27. Final Thoughts 1. Focus on ideas that weren’t possible before 2. Be intellectually honest 3. Create opportunities for luck
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