Introduction Incrementalism is Death a personal opinion to energy and buildings Stephan Tanner, Intep – Integrated Planning LLC, USA

Energy Matters!

Energy Matters! Transportation Industry Buildings

Global Warming additional information: www.ipcc.com Rhone Glacier 1990 1601 1856 1940

Global Warming (Petit et al. 1999) Today CO 2 concentration is already higher than ever in the last 400’000 years Atmospherical CO 2 concentration (ppm) Years before today Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - www.IPCC.ch 400’000 300’000 200’000 100’000 today 200 240 280 320 360 400 2100: Scenarios up to 1100 ppm 2000: Today, 380 ppm 1800: pre-industrial, 280 ppm

Global Warming Goal: Stabilization at 550ppm = 1 Ton of CO2 - max. 500 Watt of fossil fuel annually per person Source: Watson

Global warming - Economic Impact: "The Biggest Market Failure the World Has Ever Seen” Sir Nicholas Stern, former Chief Economist of the World Bank, February 2007: Nicolas Stern Report: The cost of reducing emissions could be limited to around 1% of global GDP; people could be charged more Unabated climate change could cost the world at least 5% of GDP each year; if more dramatic predictions come to pass, the cost could be more than 20% of GDP. Source: The McKinsey Quarterly 2007 - 1

"The Biggest Market Failure the World Has Ever Seen” Sir Nicholas Stern, former Chief Economist of the World Bank, February 2007:

Nicolas Stern Report:

The cost of reducing emissions could be limited to around 1% of global GDP; people could be charged more

Unabated climate change could cost the world at least 5% of GDP each year; if more dramatic predictions come to pass, the cost could be more than 20% of GDP.

Global Warming USA: Current annual CO 2 emission per person: 20 Ton of CO 2 Global Warming Goal by 2050: 1 Ton of CO 2

Energy Vision: ‘ 2000 Watt Society’ 1500 Watt renewable energy 500 Watt fossil energy Source: ETH Novatlantis: www.novatlantis.ch

‘ 2000 Watt Society’

1500 Watt renewable energy

500 Watt fossil energy

Source: ETH Novatlantis: www.novatlantis.ch

Choices: Source: US Energy Information Administration Supply Replace 85% fossil Demand Improve Efficiency by 85% Transportation Industry Buildings

Energy demand related to Buildings: 38% to 48% Source: US Energy Information Administration

Building Life-Cycle: 50 to 100 years Source: Intep GmbH

Incrementalism is Death ! We build today for 2050 and beyond.

Building Energy Benchmarks Example State of Minnesota Today 100% MN Energy Code 315 kWh/m2a -60% LEED Platinum 190 kWh/m2a -85% Passivhaus Standard 45 kWh/m2a

We can do it today ! Over 6000 Passivhaus Buildings have been build today

Let’s make the step together! I look forward to have a great dialog about ideas, experiences and challenges at this conference. THANK YOU!