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Commercial Market Monitor March 2011

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  • 1. Commercial Market MonitorNational EditionMarch 2011
  • 2. The Commercial Market MonitorMARCH 2011In 201 over $299 billion in estimated commercial mortgages will mature and need to be refinanced or sold. This forecast 1,is based upon CoreLogic property records data and is updated on an ongoing monthly basis.Mortgage Maturity Impact by Region and Property Type$3.5 billion in commercial mortgages estimated to mature in March 2011For March 201 there will be a projected 5,495 properties with an aggregate loan origination value exceeding $3.5 billion that 1will need to be refinanced. For the month, the Southern region accounts for 57 percent of national maturities (on a dollar .6basis) with an estimated 3,529 commercial real estate mortgages valued at more than $2 billion. The Midwest is the secondmost active region with 1,095 mortgages valued at more than $77 million maturing, or 21.8 percent of national maturities. In 4third position is the country’s Western region with 682 mortgages valued at more than $557 million —12.4 percent of March’snational maturities. With a combined total loan value of nearly $3.4 billion, these top three regions account for 96.5 percent ofall mortgages and 95.1 percent of the estimated loan origination mortgage value due to mature in March. NATIONWIDE COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES WITH MATURING MORTGAGES by Region and Property Type 2011 FULL YEAR COUNT MARCH 2011 – COUNT Full Year Monthly Monthly % of Yearly Total Region Full Year Count Loan Value Count Loan Value (in dollars) Midwest 2,447 $4,813,308,483 113 $96,549,266 2.01% Commercial Northeast 396 $457,868,824 16 $7,547,509 1.65% NEC South 9,112 $30,016,149,350 457 $341,158,211 1.14% West 1,349 $8,571,655,480 54 $34,248,318 0.40% Subtotal 13,304 $43,858,982,137 640 $479,503,304 1.09% Uncategorized Midwest 4,457 $2,143,574,202 254 $91,525,351 4.27% Commercial Northeast 402 $117,193,566 8 $1,999,761 1.71% South 7,238 $11,377,913,951 431 $135,786,199 1.19% West 2,280 $1,973,476,608 114 $34,045,451 1.73% Subtotal 14,377 $15,612,158,327 807 $263,356,762 1.69% Midwest 99 $1,385,647,803 4 $4,721,887 0.34% Northeast 52 $155,990,669 2 $460,000 0.29% Hotel South 310 $1,491,429,275 15 $54,020,236 3.62% West 81 $597,432,879 3 $541,050 0.09% Subtotal 542 $3,630,500,626 24 $59,743,173 1.65% Midwest 2,063 $51,757,630,954 94 $120,808,867 0.23% Industrial Northeast 463 $2,705,032,732 16 $23,019,337 0.85% South 3,249 $19,850,012,319 171 $172,265,096 0.87% West 1,027 $11,315,187,682 42 $135,382,270 1.20% Subtotal 6,802 $85,627,863,687 323 $451,475,570 0.53% Midwest 5,827 $45,301,171,226 292 $127,023,347 0.28% Northeast 1,383 $729,218,646 67 $37,645,492 5.16% Land South 31,574 $28,018,495,267 1,875 $659,331,253 2.35% West 7,027 $11,496,633,995 346 $139,432,139 1.21% Subtotal 45,811 $85,545,519,134 2,580 $963,432,231 1.13% Midwest 4,095 $3,531,710,399 189 $127,658,112 3.61% Multi-Fam Northeast 1,560 $1,009,565,462 44 $65,143,367 6.45% South 4,287 $17,155,101,586 235 $188,213,033 1.10% West 1,818 $4,589,502,684 55 $63,185,614 1.38% Subtotal 11,760 $26,285,880,131 523 $444,200,126 1.69% Midwest 784 $1,716,861,661 40 $20,170,800 1.17% Northeast 353 $611,167,398 8 $25,748,250 4.21% Office South 2,644 $6,119,627,666 139 $95,402,690 1.56% West 644 $5,084,117,913 23 $108,391,676 2.13% Subtotal 4,425 $13,531,774,638 210 $249,713,416 1.85% Midwest 2,087 $9,163,499,588 109 $185,849,039 2.03% Northeast 689 $645,994,845 28 $12,375,827 1.92% Retail South 3,705 $8,918,978,308 206 $402,824,220 4.52% West 813 $6,360,707,105 45 $42,204,498 0.66% Subtotal 7,294 $25,089,179,846 388 $643,253,584 2.56% Midwest 21,859 $119,813,404,316 1,095 $774,306,669 0.65% Northeast 5,298 $6,432,032,142 189 $173,939,543 2.70% Total South 62,119 $122,947,707,722 3,529 $2,049,000,938 1.67% West 15,039 $49,988,714,346 682 $557,431,016 1.12% Grand Total 104,315 $299,181,858,526 5,495 $3,554,678,166 1.19% Source: CoreLogic, 2011 total year commercial mortgage data and March 2011 commercial mortgage data. 1
  • 3. Commercial Market Monitor ► March 2011Mortgage Maturity Activity by Property Type and by CBSAAtlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA will be the most heavily impacted CBSA for March 2011For March 201 the three CBSAs with the highest estimated dollar volume of maturities are as follows: Atlanta-Sandy Springs- 1Marietta, GA is in first position with over $328.6 million in maturing commercial mortgage maturities; the Spartanburg, SCCBSA follows with more than $250.3 million; and in third position is the Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI CBSA with just over$178.7 million in “Retail” commercial mortgage maturities for the month.TOP 5 CBSAS WITH COMMERCIAL MORTGAGES MATURING IN MARCH (IN DOLLARS)by Property Type CBSA Region February 2011 Loan Value Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX $56,098,221 COMMERCIAL Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX $52,519,074 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI $30,984,849 NEC Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI $26,787,793 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA $25,173,451 Subtotal $191,563,388 Columbus, OH $37,589,380 Uncategorized COMMERCIAL Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL $28,953,844 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA $6,851,442 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI $6,264,477 Port St. Lucie, FL $5,750,000 Subtotal $85,409,143 Columbia, SC $30,500,000 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA $3,860,000 HOTEL Savannah, GA $3,654,091 Jacksonville, FL $3,501,469 Homosassa Springs, FL $3,500,000 Subtotal $45,015,560 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA $96,752,261 INDUSTRIAL Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA $56,459,032 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI $43,482,801 Tiffin, OH $41,000,000 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL $32,580,000 Subtotal $270,274,094 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA $107,273,307 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX $83,393,891 LAND Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX $55,087,236 Columbus, OH $37,425,811 Durham-Chapel Hill, NC $36,760,158 Subtotal $319,940,403 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD $57,216,300 MULTI-FAM Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA $48,608,118 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI $48,485,208 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX $35,021,128 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI $31,000,000 Subtotal $220,330,754 Salt Lake City, UT $82,000,000 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA $30,128,759 OFFICE York-Hanover, PA $24,278,000 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL $12,001,614 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ $10,700,000 Subtotal $159,108,373 Spartanburg, SC $250,320,000 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA $50,233,281 RETAIL Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH $50,009,685 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI $49,522,695 Canton-Massillon, OH $49,162,000 Subtotal $449,247,661 Grand Total $1,740,889,376 2
  • 4. Commercial Market Monitor ► March 2011Distressed PropertiesThe most recent recording period for our default data, February 201 displays a substantial decline in the overall number of distressed 1,properties monitored in the top 10 markets as compared to January 201 The Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI CBSA displayed one of 1.the most significant declines for this observed period. The New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA CBSA also experienceda notable decrease by nearly half.The following chart focuses on the 10 largest CBSAs (excluding the Boston area).DISTRESSED COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE JANUARY 2006 THROUGH FEBRUARY 201 1 BY TOP 10 CBSAS All Property Types Included 5000 4500 Washington–Arlington– Alexandria, DC–VA–MD–WV 4000 Philadelphia–Camden– Wilmington, PA–NJ–DE–MD 3500 New York–Northern New Jersey–Long I l d NY NJ PA J L Island, NY–NJ–PA 3000 Miami–Fort Lauderdale– Pompano Beach, FL 2500 Los Angeles–Long Beach– Santa Ana, CA 2000 Houston–Sugar Land–Baytown, TX 1500 Detroit–Warren–Livonia, MI 1000 Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington, TX 500 Chicago–Naperville–Joliet, IL– IN–WI 0 Atlanta –Sandy Springs – Marietta, GA Jan 08 Jan 06 Feb 06 Ma 06 Ap 06 May 06 Jun 06 Ju 06 Aug 06 Sep 06 Oc 06 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 09 Feb 09 Ma 09 Ap 09 May 09 Jun 09 Ju 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oc 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Ja 10 Fe 10 Ma 10 Ap 10 Ma 10 No 10 De 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Jan 07 Feb 07 Ma 07 Ap 07 Jul 10 Au 10 Se 10 Oc 10 May 07 Jun 07 Ju 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 Oc 07 No 07 De 07 Feb 08 Ma 08 Ap 08 May 08 Jun 08 Ju 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oc 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Ju 10 ar ay ct eb ug ep ov an pr un ec ar ct ul ov pr ec ar ct ul ar ct pr ar ct ul ul pr pr JCommercial Real Estate Transactions: Sales Markedly Decrease for January 2011COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SALES JANUARY 2006 THROUGH JANUARY 201 1 BY PROPERTY TYPEOnly Top 10 CBSAs Included 14000 Retail Office 12000 Multi-Family Land dust a Industrial 10000 Hotel Commercial Uncategorized 8000 Commercial NEC 6000 4000 2000 0 Jan 08 Feb 06 Feb 09 Ju 09 Jan 06 Ma 06 Ap 06 May 06 Ju 06 Nov 06 Jun 06 Aug 06 Sep 06 Oc 06 Dec 06 Feb 07 Ju 07 No 07 Ju 08 Ap 09 May 09 Jun 09 Aug 09 Sep 09 Oc 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Fe 10 Ja 10 Ma 10 Ap 10 Ma 10 Jul 10 Au 10 Se 10 Oc 10 No 10 De 10 Jan 11 Jan 07 Ma 07 Ap 07 May 07 Jun 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 Oc 07 De 07 Feb 08 Ma 08 Ap 08 May 08 Jun 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oc 08 Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Ma 09 Ju 10 ar ay ct eb ug ep ov an pr un ec ar ct ul ov pr ec ar ct ul ar ct pr ar ct ul ul pr pr J Source: CoreLogic commercial property sales data January 2006 through January 2011.About the Commercial Mortgage MonitorThe CoreLogic Commercial Market Monitor is a monthly report on U.S. commercial real estate mortgage maturities, distressedproperties and sales transactions. The report is designed to provide insight — at both the national and the regional level — into threemajor challenges facing the commercial real estate market: the amount of debt coming due, default activity and sales demand.MethodologyThe CBSAs featured in the “Top CBSAs” are Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta (GA), Chicago-Naperville-Joliet (IL, IN & WI), Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (TX), Detroit-Warren-Livonia (MI), Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown (TX), Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana(CA), Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (FL), New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island NY & NJ), Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington (PA, NJ, DE & MD), Washington-Arlington-Alexandria (DC, VA, MD, WV). The data used in this report is compiledfrom multiple resources including county record tax rolls, and other proprietary resources. Property level records were used inaggregate to derive at all charts & graphs. 3
  • 5. Commercial Market Monitor ► March 2011 ABOUT CORELOGIC CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading provider of consumer, financial and property information, analytics and services to business and government. The company combines public, contributory and proprietary data to develop predictive decision analytics and provide business services that bring dynamic insight and transparency to the markets it serves. CoreLogic has built the largest U.S. real estate, mortgage application, fraud, and loan performance databases and is a recognized leading provider of mortgage and automotive credit reporting, property tax, valuation, flood determination, and geospatial analytics and services. More than one million users rely on CoreLogic to assess risk, support underwriting, investment and marketing decisions, prevent fraud, and improve business performance in their daily operations. Formerly the information solutions group of The First American Corporation, CoreLogic began trading under the ticker CLGX on the NYSE on June 2, 2010. The company, headquartered in Santa Ana, Calif., has more than 10,000 employees globally with 2010 revenues of $1.6 billion. For more information visit www.corelogic.com. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CALL 1-866-774-3282 © 2011 CoreLogic CORELOGIC is a registered trademark of CORELOGIC 15-CMM-0311-15 corelogic.com 4