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2 a.3 2 a.3 Presentation Transcript

  • GLOBAL TRENDS IN SCHOLARLY PUBLISHINGSociety for Scholarly Publishing2009 Annual MeetingKeith CollierVP & General Manager, ScholarOneThomson Reuters
  • TOPICS• Scholarly & Scientific Research at Thomson Reuters• Global Peer Review Trends• Global Research Evaluation Trends• What does it mean?
  • THOMSON REUTER’S VIEW OF SCHOLARLYRESEARCH Publishing, Authoring, Performance Discovery and Collaboration Evaluation• Web of Knowledge • ScholarOne • Essential Science• Web of Science • EndNote Indicators • Journal Citation Reports (impact factors • Research Services Searches Submissions Citations Downloads Acceptances # of Papers Key Metrics
  • THOMSON REUTER’S VIEW OF SCHOLARLYRESEARCH Publishing, Authoring, Performance Discovery and Collaboration Evaluation• Web of Knowledge • ScholarOne • Essential Science• Web of Science • EndNote Indicators • Journal Citation Reports (impact factors • Research Services Searches Submissions Citations Downloads Acceptances # of Papers Key Metrics
  • TOTAL ORIGINAL SUBMISSIONS THROUGHSCHOLARONE BY COUNTRY (2002 – 2008)700000600000500000400000300000200000100000 0
  • SUBMISSION GROWTH BY COUNTRY (TOP 17) 200000 180000 United States China 160000 United Kingdom Japan 140000 Germany Italy 120000 Canada India 100000 France 80000 Spain Australia 60000 Turkey Korea, Republic of 40000 Taiwan Netherlands 20000 Brazil Sweden 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008# of Journals 245 446 694 1074 1554 2155 2805(sample size)
  • TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN 2002 3% 4% United States 4% Japan 6% United Kingdom Germany Italy 6% 43% France Canada 6% Spain China Australia 8% 10% 10%
  • TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN 2003 4% 5% United States 5% United Kingdom Japan 5% Germany Italy 6% 42% France Canada 6% China Spain Australia 7% 10% 10%
  • TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN 2004 4% 5% United States 5% United Kingdom Japan 6% Germany 39% China Italy 6% Canada France Spain 7% Korea, Republic of 8% 10% 10%
  • TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN 2005 5% 5% United States 5% United Kingdom China 6% Japan 37% Germany Italy 6% Canada France Spain 7% Turkey 9% 10% 10%
  • TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN 2006 5% 5% United States 5% China United Kingdom 5% Japan 36% Germany Italy 6% Canada India 7% France Spain 9% 12% 10%
  • TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN 2007 4% 4% United States 5% China United Kingdom 6% Japan 37% Germany India 6% Italy Canada 7% France Spain 8% 10% 13%
  • TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN 2008 5% 5% United States China 6% United Kingdom Japan 6% 38% India Germany Canada 7% Italy Australia 8% 10% 15%
  • TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTSPERCENT BREAKDOWN 2009 YTD 4% 4% United States 5% China United Kingdom 5% Japan 36% India 6% Germany Canada Italy 7% Spain France 8% 10% 15%
  • AVG ANNUAL SUBMISSION GROWTH (2002 – 2008)JOURNALS WITH AT LEAST 5,000 SUBMISSIONS IN 2008 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Iran, China India Taiwan Turkey Brazil Greece Poland Korea, Australia Islamic Republic of Republic of
  • EXPECT MORE SUBMISSIONS RELATIVE TO OTHERCOUNTRIES FROM THESE “HOT SPOTS”
  • PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTINGMANUSCRIPTS 2009 Projected 4% 4% United States 5% China United Kingdom 5% 34% India Japan 6% Germany Canada Italy 7% Turkey Australia 7% 10% 18%
  • PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTINGMANUSCRIPTS 2010 Projected 5% 5% United States 5% China United Kingdom 5% 31% India Japan 5% Germany Turkey 6% Taiwan Canada Italy 8% 21% 9%
  • PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTINGMANUSCRIPTS 2011 Projected 4% 5% United States 5% China 28% India 5% United Kingdom Japan 5% Iran, Islamic Republic of Turkey 6% Taiwan Germany Canada 8% 25% 9%
  • PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTINGMANUSCRIPTS 2012 Projected 4% 4% China 5% United States 29% India 5% United Kingdom Iran, Islamic Republic of 6% Turkey Taiwan 6% Japan Korea, Republic of Germany 7% 24% 10%
  • PROJECTING TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTINGMANUSCRIPTS 2013 Projected 3% 4% China 4% United States 6% India 32% Iran, Islamic Republic of 6% United Kingdom Taiwan Turkey 6% Japan Korea, Republic of Brazil 8% 10% 21%
  • TOP 10 COUNTRIES SUBMITTING MANUSCRIPTS PROJECTED CHANGE OVER 10 YEARS… 2003 2013 Projected 4% 4% 3% China United States 4% 5% United Kingdom United States 5% Japan India 5% 6% Germany 32% Iran, Islamic Republic of6% 42% 6% Italy United Kingdom6% France 6% Taiwan Canada Turkey 7% 8% China Japan 10% Spain 10% 21% 10% Korea, Republic of Australia Brazil
  • 2002-2008 ACCEPTANCE RATIOS COUNTRIES WITH MORE THAN 10,000 SUBMISSIONS50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%
  • 2002-2008 ACCEPTANCE RATIOSCOUNTRIES WITH MORE THAN 10,000 SUBMISSIONS
  • PEER REVIEW CHALLENGES COMING?COUNTRIES WITH GROWING SUBMISSIONS AND LOWER ACCEPTANCERATES
  • SCIENTIFIC & SCHOLARLY RESEARCH’S VIEW OFSCHOLARLY RESEARCH Publishing, Authoring, Performance Discovery and Collaboration Evaluation• Web of Knowledge • ScholarOne • Essential Science• Web of Science • EndNote Indicators • Journal Citation Reports • Research Services Searches Submissions Citations Downloads Acceptances # of Papers Key Metrics
  • ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 20 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS)RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF PAPERS (1998 – 2008) 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0
  • ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 20 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS)RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF CITATIONS (1998 – 2008) 50,000,000 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0
  • ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 20 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS)RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF CITATIONS PER PAPER 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
  • 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 SWITZERLAND USA DENMARK NETHERLANDS SCOTLAND SWEDEN ENGLAND FINLAND CANADA BELGIUM GERMANY AUSTRIA ISRAEL NORWAY FRANCE WALES AUSTRALIA ITALY IRELAND NORTH IRELAND NEW ZEALAND JAPAN SPAIN HUNGARY CHILE PORTUGAL SINGAPORE SOUTH AFRICA GREECE ARGENTINACZECH REPUBLIC THAILAND RANKED BY TOTAL NUMBER OF CITATIONS PER PAPER MEXICO SLOVENIA POLAND SOUTH KOREA VENEZUELA TAIWAN BRAZIL SLOVAKIA BULGARIA CROATIAPEOPLES R CHINA ESSENTIAL SCIENCE INDICATORS – TOP 50 COUNTRIES (ALL FIELDS) INDIA RUSSIA MOROCCO EGYPT MALAYSIA TURKEY ROMANIA
  • WHAT DOES THIS MEAN (THOMSON REUTERSPERSPECTIVE)• Challenges for Peer Review – Increasing submissions, but from countries with lower acceptance rates and lower citations• Focus on Regional Science – More visibility and use of regional journals• Internationalize Tools & Services
  • THE TWO-WAY STREET: THOMSON REUTERS• International version of tools – Web of Science – EndNote – ScholarOne• Expanded Regional Coverage in WoS 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Total WoS 8,834 9,109 9,337 10,755 11,035Growth +275 (3%) +228 +1,418 +280 (2.5%) (15%) (2.6%)
  • PERCENT OF WORLD PAPERS FOR OVERALLCOUNTRY IN 1 YEAR PERIODS CITED TO PRESENT