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  1. 1. Chaotic Transitions How today’s trends will affecttomorrow’s information environment Marshall Keys, Ph.D. MDA Consulting POB 534 Nantucket MA 02554 marshallkeys@mindspring.com
  2. 2. Environmental scanning for libraries and information organizations And what do I see out there?
  3. 3. Some common issues Globalization Ubiquitous Technology Personalization Intellectual PropertyDemographic changes Community
  4. 4. Cutting to the chaseWhere I would conclude if you were librarians, almost
  5. 5. Libraries have new populations to serveSome of whom don’t know about what they doSome of whom can’t access what they doSome of whom don’t care about what they do
  6. 6. Libraries haven’t got any money• All kinds of things are appearing on the horizon that will cost money,• And vendors cannot, will not, and should not provide products or services at unsustainable prices or they will go out of business.• “We have met the enemy and he is us.”
  7. 7. Libraries have a huge investment in the status quoLibraries have huge investments – human and financial – in technologies that are not at the cutting edgeLibraries are rule-bound organizations in a society with little respect for limitsLibraries are professionally committed to levels of privacy that nobody else cares about
  8. 8. Libraries are committed to places, not to missions• Blockbuster vs Netflix• Borders vs Amazon• Building libraries as civic monuments• Central libraries vs everybody else: Walgreens, CVS, Starbucks, and Bank of America• Upper West Side
  9. 9. Libraries are committed to a medium, not a messageLibraries remain identified with print when the world can – view DVD’s in their cars – carry their music and video collections in their pockets – Search databases and view videos on their cell phonesDoes the American Medical Association have a “Center for the Stethoscope” as libraries have a “Center for the Book”?
  10. 10. Our content providers are caught between• Complete disregard of any concept of intellectual property among the young• Growing reluctance of content creators to work within the established model (PLOS, preprint servers, blogs)• Reluctance of major customers to accept the dominant business model
  11. 11. Why is this happening,what does it mean to you, and what can be done about it?
  12. 12. A bit of theory: chaotic transitions Theodore Modis Predictions, 1992
  13. 13. Chaotic transitions for libraries and publishers• No dominant technological model – What are the tools that people will use to access knowledge?• No dominant business model – How will content be distributed and paid for?• No dominant intellectual model – What is a library in 2006? What will it be in 2016? What will scholarly publishing be in 2016?
  14. 14. Why these issues matter“Successful organizations share “a powerfulunderstanding of what rapid social andeconomic change mean for consumers’needs and wants.” Nancy Koehn, Brand New, 2002
  15. 15. Assumptions and questions• The future of libraries/publishers depends on their ability to meet the emerging needs of users.• Who will those users be?• What are their emerging needs?• How will these needs differ from traditional needs?• How can libraries/publishers respond to them?• Ten year horizon
  16. 16. Changing users: “What’s a cassette?”Young woman to young man on the MBTA subway, Boston, January, 2002
  17. 17. Buzznet
  18. 18. The blog mentality• What I think is important• What I think is important to other people• Things are important because I think they are important: the “whatever” corollary:• If I don’t think it’s important, it isn’t important• “Esse est percipi”:• 51% of Bloggers are between 13 and 19, 90% under 30• Privacy is unimportant; community is important• Bloggers are your users, your users-to-be, and the next generation of professional leaders!
  19. 19. Michael Gorman on the WebGraphic: Photograph of "I dont always think ALA President peoples opinions are Michael Gorman worth reading," he says. "They should not be published. I really like the filtering that publishers do. You dont publish maundering.“ “Whats the Difference Gorman vs. Stripling?” by John N. Berry III – LJ 3/15/2004
  20. 20. And Blaise Cronin, Library School Dean• Graphic: Photograph “Blogging is CB radio on of Blaise Cronin, steroids. It’s all the rage. The Web has become the Indiana University universal soapbox. No voice need be unheard; no whine denied oxygen. It’s the fusion of vanity publishing and the bully pulpit. Every idea, no matter how trite or crazy can see the light of digital day.”
  21. 21. Graphic: New Yorker cartoon of daughter addressing father“You don’t get it, Daddy, because they’re not targeting you!”
  22. 22. Not just Old Geezers:“Back in the 1980’s,” says Emily Nussbaum,“When I attended high school, there were• No cellphones • No JPEG’s• No answering • No digital cameras machines • No file sharing• No “texting” software• No MP3’s • No Web” “My so-called Blog”, Emily Nussbaum, NYT Magazine Jan 11, 2004
  23. 23. Emerging users, dominant themes• Community• Portability• Personalization
  24. 24. Community
  25. 25. Community: our sort
  26. 26. Every parent’s worst fear 60,000,000 users worldwide
  27. 27. Suddenly looks benign
  28. 28. Community: Where!
  29. 29. Community: written
  30. 30. Community: visual
  31. 31. Community: indiscreet
  32. 32. Community: multimedia
  33. 33. Community: universal theme
  34. 34. Technology: ubiquitous• Graphic: young • Graphic: young African American with bearded man (soul mobile phone patch?) kissing IPod
  35. 35. Ubiquitous technology: TVDownload it and take it with you everywhere
  36. 36. Ubiquitous technology: TV Sony SlingboxConnect your cable to the net, and it follows you everywhere!
  37. 37. Ubiquitous technology: TV
  38. 38. Personalization: Pimp My Ride
  39. 39. Personalization: HGTV
  40. 40. Personalized technology
  41. 41. Personalized technology
  42. 42. Personalization + portable technology
  43. 43. Ridiculous personalized technology
  44. 44. “Branded ubiquity”• Every one of those items represents an attempt to make money by responding to and reinforcing a trend.• The stakes: who will control the interaction between gadgets?• What will libraries/publishers do to respond to those trends?• Richard Siklos, “Linking a device to a gadget that is wired to a gizmo,” NYT 01/08/06
  45. 45. A deeper lookParsing the telephone
  46. 46. Buzznet depends on personal and personalized communication
  47. 47. The phone up close: personalization• Download ring tones that sound like the real thing ($5 billion in 2005)• Personalize your phone by saving your own pictures as Wallpaper• Jazz up your phone with full color pictures and Wallpaper• Interchangeable faceplates let you personalize your phone to suit your style• Marketing message: You are unique even though you are just like everyone else
  48. 48. The phone up close: information appliance• Send and receive e-mail• Send quick notes to your friends using text messaging• Send and receive AOL Instant Messages• Look up your horoscope or local information on movies, the music scene or whatever!• Marketing message: You are no longer tied to old stuff like computers
  49. 49. The phone up close: the phone ‘n’ more• Use your phone as a modem• Take pictures with the camera and send them to any e-mail address or T-mobile phone• Marketing message: you are connected to your friends through multimedia• Nowhere does the advertisement mention using the phone to talk to people!
  50. 50. Trends: camera phones US camera phone sales 2005: 47% of all mobile phones 2 for 1 sale in Rich Square, NC (pop 931)Graphic: Snapshot of young Why? “Darryl’s firstAfrican American family picture with his new camera phone”
  51. 51. Geoffrey Moore’s Model Technology adoption(Crossing the Chasm, 1991)
  52. 52. Metcalfe’s Law N(N-1)The value of a communication system grows as the approximate square of the number of participants Robert Metcalfe, inventor of Ethernet
  53. 53. And leads to A world ofubiquitous, multi-media communication
  54. 54. Old: “Everything is on the internet”New: “Everything is on the phone”
  55. 55. Old: SlingboxNew: Slingplayer Mobile!
  56. 56. Old: internet ready reference Old “auction” business model
  57. 57. New: telephone ready reference! New: fixed price business model
  58. 58. And now in the USA: for 49 cents!
  59. 59. The predictions business"Video wont be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." - Daryl F. Zanuck, 20th Century Fox, commenting on television in 1946
  60. 60. What does it mean to libraries?• Users for whom the phone is a/the primary information appliance – Phone interface to local systems and web based information resources – Reference through text messaging – Bandwidth and graphical interface issues• Users who are willing to pay for information – delivered the way they want it!
  61. 61. What does it mean to publishers?New models of acquiring information OLD • Formal resources • Authority • Solitary activity NEW • Peer to peer • Social networks • Being in touch all the time everywhere
  62. 62. What does it mean to the information industry?“In Japan, bookstores complain of digital shoplifting;instead of buying magazines, readers snap pictures of stories and bulk-forward them to friends:‘Its like a Napster thing -- anything you see in the environment becomes something you can easily capture and share.’”Thompson; see also “Cell phone cams spreading mischief”, Yuri Kageyama, Associated Press, July 10, 2003
  63. 63. Chaotic transitions inintellectual property ‘Its like a Napster thing -- anything you see in the environment becomes something you can easily capture and share.’
  64. 64. Industry responds with lawsuitsHackers respond by shutting down RIAA website!
  65. 65. Courts consistently held against copyright holders• “Canadian court prevents suits against music sharers”• “US court: Software cant commit piracy”• Until the US Supreme Court!
  66. 66. Kids and the law• Graphic: girl lighting • Graphic: young man pipe on beach with 10” spliff• Graphic: College • Graphic: two girls student smoking partially dressed with “blunt” (hollowed cigar large marijuana seed filled with marijuana) head
  67. 67. Industry responds with High Tech• “RIAA uses digital fingerprints and metadata" tags embedded within many MP3 music files.” Boston Globe, Aug 28, 2003• Publishers respond with DOI• MPAA responds with “broadcast flags” Boston Globe, 8/28/9003
  68. 68. Users respond with Low Tech:“Music CD Swappers Turn to Snail Mail”“It may be a crime to swap digital music over the Internet, but theres no law against doing it through the Postal Service.Thats the theory behind La La Media Inc., an Internet start-up that encourages music lovers to trade tunes by mail.”• If it works for Netflix . . . .• Hiawatha Bray, Boston Globe May 5, 2006
  69. 69. But it’s moot: Earth Station 5
  70. 70. ES5’s competitive advantage
  71. 71. If not Jenin, then Vanuatu, home to Kazaa
  72. 72. But the cat is out of the bag, and the medium is the message
  73. 73. And not for the first time• Graphic: Article on • Graphic: Synthetic “cento” from NY Cubism. Picasso, Times Book Review “The Guitar,” 1913
  74. 74. But now copyright holders are the bad guys!• Graphic: article from Financial Times “Copyright is stifling creativity in America”
  75. 75. And the people to work around “Fair use and aggressive offers by documentary film makers” Elaine Dutka, NYT, Business, May 28, 2006, p.28
  76. 76. A parenthetical digression: copyright for scholarly publishing• What is the real danger at the consumer level?• Is there enough danger to remain identified with the bad guys?• The Federal Research Public Access Act of 2006 – If you can’t convince Senators Lieberman and Cornyn about the value of the present model, try explaining it to Representative Bubba Bilbo• What are the interests of the creators of content?• With ownership comes responsibility: – The obligation to preserve – The obligation to publish
  77. 77. Chaotic transitions in the content businessElsevier stock price (US ADR’s) over the last ten years
  78. 78. Chaotic transition in business models
  79. 79. And the 800 Pound Gorilla!
  80. 80. Chaotic technology: new stuff coming down the road New ways to find information for new user expectations
  81. 81. Ubiquity: any time, any where, any wayJoseph Turow’s students at Penn see little difference between television and the Internet.They watch The O.C. on their laptops, at home on TiVo and by swapping the show (perhaps illegally) through file-sharing.The coming generation is accustomed to the idea of watching or listening to anything on any device thats nearby.Jon Gertner, “Our Ratings, Ourselves” NYT 04/10/2005
  82. 82. Evolving information technology: the search for portability• Wireless networks are the current state of the art in library technology• Ubiquitous (“Ultra-mobile”) computing is the next
  83. 83. An idea whose time had not come
  84. 84. New ways 2002 • Ovid in Hand • Innovative’s AirPac
  85. 85. New ways 2006:Microsoft Origami“Ultra-mobile computing”
  86. 86. The tyranny of computing models• Input All unified in a• Storage single device:• Processor desktop,• Display• Output laptop, PDA whatever!
  87. 87. Distributed computing: inputLaptops add at least four pounds to a backpack. So students take notes on hand-held computers with foldout keyboards. At Yale Divinity School, Kristen Dunn uses a Palm VX and a foldout keyboard. It was the best money I ever spent in preparing for school.“Existential Essentials” by Melanie D.G. Kaplan, NYT, 8/1/04“Saves you from lugging around a laptop” Melissa White, MLA, October 2004
  88. 88. Distributed computing: input • Siemens VKB • Get rid of the blankety-blank stylus!
  89. 89. Distributed computing: storage
  90. 90. Distributed computing: storage
  91. 91. Distributed computing: processing
  92. 92. Distributed computing: processing Linux for iPod
  93. 93. The issue: size vs rich content Graphic: Cartoon “Amazing! A man with a 36” TV screen insists on a 3” PDA”• Rich graphical interfaces versus miniaturization• Bandwidth versus portability
  94. 94. Distributed computing: display
  95. 95. Distributed computing: display Sony Ericsson projection picture phone: why carry a screen?
  96. 96. Changing technologyNew ways to find information
  97. 97. Old ways: portals
  98. 98. New ways: personalized portalsAt RIT . . . about half the students have created personalized versions of the [university’s] Web site.“Students . . . dont go looking to find information. They want information brought to them.” Shifted Librarian Feb 12, 2004
  99. 99. Old ways: search engines
  100. 100. New ways: personalized search engines
  101. 101. Community: search engine with social networkingCommunity, not privacy is the message!
  102. 102. Community: social bookmarks Community, not privacy!
  103. 103. Community: social cataloging
  104. 104. Community: social cataloging
  105. 105. The problem with peer-to-peer• What if all your friends are stupid, uninformed, or have lousy taste in media?• Suspicions about Google and its algorithm• GIGO?
  106. 106. But the trend is clear: people want personalized information access• Having it their way vs doing it our way• “Lean Consumption” Harvard Business Review March, 2005 – “using technology to reduce time and hassle for customers and get them what they want when they want it.”
  107. 107. Personalized information access: Amazon does it!• What I looked at before• What other people looking at the same topic have looked at• What they think about what they looked at• What else I might like to look at based on what I looked at this time• But what about privacy? What about ALA?
  108. 108. And what about privacy?• Graphic: Menwith • No expectation of Hill, Yorkshire, NSA privacy because they listening station do not believe that it exists in an electronic environment• Graphic: hand with • If I view it or send it, surgically inserted they will see it RFID • I don’t care • Bounded rationality
  109. 109. Tomorrow’s users and privacy• Graphic: photograph • Graphic: photograph of girls behaving of girls behaving badly by flashing at badly, drinking in fraternity party, underwear in posted by friends residence hall, posted by friends Bounded rationality
  110. 110. Evolving technologyNew ways to display information
  111. 111. Old Ways: local systems
  112. 112. Old ways: hit lists
  113. 113. New ways: knowledge maps
  114. 114. Knowledge map:Grokker and Anacubis
  115. 115. “But wait, there’s more!” Emerging technology• Graphic: photograph of a bunch of boys sitting around playing computer games Life beyond browsers
  116. 116. Beyond browsers“In 1999 [virtual stores] made no sense. They didnt fit with using the Internet through a Web browser. The browser was a two-dimensional medium. It still is.But the world of gamers is generally 3-D. All of a sudden, a 3-D store doesnt seem like science fiction if the medium isnt the browser and the hardware isnt a PC.”• “2004: Beyond the Browser?” Jack Aaronson January 8, 2004 www.clickz.com/experts/crm/crm_strat/article.php/3296541
  117. 117. Beyond the browser meetscommunity toy: PlayStation 2 To be everyone’s pal, show up at American University with a Sony PlayStation 2, pop in a game, open your door and voila! Its the one thing that made my social life significantly easier, says Steven White. Crazy Taxi was the game to have, or any sports game, things multiple people can play.” “Existential Essentials” by Melanie D.G. Kaplan, NYT, 8/1/04
  118. 118. From toy to tool: Linux for XBox
  119. 119. From toy to tool: PS2 supercomputerNational Center for Supercomputer Applications, the folks who brought you MOSAIC, father of Netscape, grandfather of Internet Explorer
  120. 120. Ultramobile tool: Portable Play StationDon’t tell Bill, but it looks an awful lot like Origami!
  121. 121. The predictions business"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" - Harry M. Warner, Warner Bros Pictures, 1927
  122. 122. But what does the library look like if the medium isn’t a browser and the hardware isn’t a PC?
  123. 123. Well, at Appalachian State University, they are finding out!
  124. 124. Platform
  125. 125. Simulations
  126. 126. What must libraries/publishers do to serve a world in which• Users expect information to be delivered to them?• Users expect technology and interfaces to be highly personalized?• Users care more about convenience and community than privacy?• Users have a new metaphor for computing?
  127. 127. The new user: a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention• Graphic: photo of Charles LaxCharles Lax is at a conference near LA, but he isn’t all here. Out of one ear, he listens to a presentation while he surfs on a wireless laptop, occasionally checking his Blackberry for e-mail. He flew from Boston and paid $2,000 to attend. But he can’t unwire himself long enough to give the presenters his complete focus.If he did, he would face a fate worse than lack of productivity: he would become bored.“The Lure of Data,” Matt Richtel, NYT, July 7, 2003
  128. 128. Time to retire?
  129. 129. Some people get it “In creating the iPod, Steve Jobs has shifted the emphasis of Apple from what made it famous – hip, even lovable computers – to what he hopes will keep it relevant and profitable in the future: products for a digital way of life.” “Oh, Yeah, he also sells computers,” John Markoff, NYT, April 25, 2004
  130. 130. “Products for a digital way of life”• Convergent devices: music, then text, then video• All functions in one appliance• Personalized• Portable• Changing (if not advancing) rapidly• Right smack in the middle of a chaotic transition!
  131. 131. Some companies get it: BBC • Find, Share, Play strategy • "BBC iPlayer to offer catch-up television up to 7 days after broadcast • Download any programme from 8 BBC channels • Watch it on your PC, TV set or download to your mobile phone to watch it when you want.“ Lorcan Dempsey’s Blog April 30, 2006
  132. 132. Some librarians get it: Susan Kent • “The future for libraries is personalizing service on a customer interest basis.” • “The future focus of technology in libraries will be promoting and delivering content-rich programming.”
  133. 133. Some faculty get it:Paul Hagner, EDUCAUSE "Its not our world any more; those who grew up on the Internet accept continuous change and turmoil in the technology they use, and they expect their teachers to keep up.” ”Colleges plan for digital natives’”, Gary Robertson, Richmond Times Dispatch, 5/10/06
  134. 134. The future• The past: print-centric• The present: web-centric• The future: ?-centric – Customer focus, not organizational focus – Not library technology but user technology – What they have, not what we have – What they want, not what we want to give them• We worry about getting computers to the poor when we could port the information to their phones
  135. 135. Don’t tell me about your grass seed, when I want to know about my lawn! Focus on the need of the user, not the features of your product!
  136. 136. A library accessible to user technology• Graphic: photo of boy • Desk top computer, kissing IPod again Laptop, PDA, Telephone, iPod, even game station • Marketing message: “Any where, any time, any way you want, your library is there”
  137. 137. A library that uses technology to offer rich program content:• Circulation is an outdated measure of service.• Users who do not come to the library are not a failure: – “Treat all students like distance education students” Ann Marie Casey, Central Michigan University• Academic Message: Research from the dorm is the norm!• Public Message: Research from the car or wherever you are!
  138. 138. Users have the technology; BUT we need to adapt to it“Designing library services for the PDA” Jessica Mussell, Royal Roads University http://ocls.cmich.edu/conference/presentat ions/jmussell_pda_pres.ppt#10 A study of possibilities and problems of distributing information to distance education students via PDA’s
  139. 139. Findings• Lack of content outside STM• E Books the favored application• Poor interfaces• Only Google Mobile looked good• pdf and image files clogged wireless networks
  140. 140. Do publishers get it?
  141. 141. User preferences: students• "I go to the library once or twice a week to study. If Im doing research, I sit at home and get on my computer. I go to Google.“• "The journal was hard to read, and it was hard to find. . . plus they put four journals in one binding and it was really heavy and inconvenient.“ – “Students check out the Web instead of library” Mary Jane Smetanka, Minneapolis Star Tribune May 7, 2004
  142. 142. User preferences: facultyFaculty survey, University of California Researchers preferred electronic information to paper by 16 to 1 when given a choice• 75% must have electronic information• 50% must have paper• They don’t want to come to the library either!• Reported at ALA Toronto in 2003
  143. 143. Notes toward a definition of scholarly products for a digital way of life• Portable – Always with me – Optimized for portability – designed for small screens• Personalized – Multiple platforms; runs on what I brung – Multiple formats: ‘Dr Blank’s’ Sierra Nevada Adventure – RSS so it finds me – Links to my past activities – Links to similar materials (“Other people who…”)
  144. 144. Notes toward a definition of scholarly products for a digital way of life• Promotes community – Connection to other users (community of practice) – Prefer levels of access (newbies, not privacy, the issue)• Has critical management features – Facilitates personal file copies – Cut and paste – Tagged for retrieval beyond keyword – Don’t want to go through a proxy server – No pdf ever
  145. 145. Notes toward a definition of scholarly products for a digital way of life• Facilitates discovery – Standard search engines as well as indexes and catalogs• Accessible at a reasonable price• Available direct to user as well as through library or membership – New income stream, marginally priced • cf broadcasters selling shows for IPOD – Purchase decision will depend on quality of abstracting or on quick views
  146. 146. Technological revolutions• In the first stage of a technological revolution, we automate the old processes.• In the second stage, we do things differently: Google and the advertising model• In the third stage, we do different things: simulation, multimedia, community based?• What’s next for you?