Planet earth relies on a natural greenhouse effect to keep us warm. Natural greenhouse gases are Carbon Dioxide, Methane and water w apor . Without it our climate would be similar to that of Mars, with temperatures way below zero, unsuitable to sustain life. Normally, heat from the sun warms the earth and then escapes into the space. The more of these gases we release, the thicker the blanket becomes. Gree n house gases act to trap more of the earth's incoming heat and cause huge demage all ower the world. Scientific projections estimate that the average global temperature will rise by between 1.4°C and 5.8°C by the year 2100 if the current rate of increase in emissions is not curbed
Our fossil fuel use is the main source of greenhouse ( heat-trapping ) gases. Every time we drive a car, use electricity from coal-fired power plants, or heat our homes with oil or natural gas, we release carbon dioxide (CO2) and other heat-trapping gases. The second most important source of CO2 is deforestation, mainly in the tropics. It provides 20 % of CO2 on global scale.
We can compare electricity production in two years 1992 and 2005. First column shows us 25 countries of EU, the second 15 developed countries, the third ten new members and the last one present Slovenia. The use of coal for electricity production has decreased more in developed than in developing countries. Unfortunately it has increased in Slovenia. The main reason is still working lignite mine in Velenje. The use of nuclear energy slightly decreased except in Slovenia where it increased from 3971 GWh to 5884 GWh. The recent data for some EU country shows inclination to builting new nuclear powerplants. Even in Slovenia the government stimulates building of new one. As you know, production of nuclear energy is without co2 emmisions, but is it save??? The use of cruid oil has been decreased and use of gas has increased. That results in low CO2 emis s ion. The use of revenable source of energy has increased slowly. In Slovenia from 3413 GWh to 3581 GWh. Mostly due to new hydoelectrical power station on Sava river .
This graph shows the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere for the last 650,000 years, as determined through Antarctic ice cores. Duri n g this long time in history of our planet the amount CO2 varied but in the last 40 ye a rs it has increased rapidly. You can see peek at the end of the graph. 85 % of this i ncrease is result of human activity, other 15% is result of natural proces .
The area of each country is transformed to reflect annual carbon dioxide emissions. Some of them are like balloons and the others are shrinked and almost di s ap p ear e from map.
The figures come from 2005 and show us percentage of whole world emission CO2. Germany 3.1 % UK 2.2 Italy 1.7 Finland 0.2 Denmark 0.2 Slovenia 0,1
61% of all Emission CO2 comes from producing energy follow transport with the second higher percentage of emission CO2. Agricultural empact is also significant by 10% .
The average earth temperature is 15 degrees of celsius . Recent observations confirm that the global mean temperature has increased by 0.8 °C compared with pre-industrial times for land and oceans, and by 1.0 °C for land alone. Europe has warmed more than the global average (1.0 and 1.2 °C,respectively), especially in the south-west, the north-east and mountain areas.
Can you imagine the change in temperature to the end of century if we do not nothing to reduce output of CO2 ? According to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) project the average temperature will increase for 6,4 oC. More exactly in Slovenia for 9 oC. North part of Europa will face with mild winters with a lot of rain and oc c asionaly appearing storms. Higher temperature will lead in increase of agricultural product and tourism. The suitability of the Mediterranean for tourism is projected to decline during the key summer months, although there will be an increased suitability during spring and autumn. On the other hand the southern part will face with droughts in summer period due to higher temperatures and lower amount of rain and predictions for Slovenia for example more is rain during winter, without snow.
The Kyoto Protocol is a document signed by about 180 countries at Kyoto, Japan, in december 1997. The protocol commits 38 industrialised countries to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases between 2008 to 2012 to levels that are 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels. Australia and USA did not ratify Kyoto protocol.
Countries of EU made an agreement to reduce heating gases with different %. The goal must be achieved in period of 2008 to 2012. Slovenia for instance make a commitment for 8% reduction, Italy 6,5%, Denmark and Germany 21 %, United Kingdom 12,5 % and Finland stay at the same level as the 1990. Graph also show s us how successfuly we were in effort to acheive goal in the year 2002. The first chimney shows the level of CO2 in 2002 and the second shows us commited level for period 2008 -2012. In 2006, four EU countries France, Greece, Sweden and Britain had already reached a level below their Kyoto target. While on the other hand (Denmark, Italy and Spain) indicate that they will not meet their emission reduction goals.
According to Kyoto protocol, Slovenia should decrease the amount of carbon dioksid for 8% comparing to year 1990 . The goal was not acheived. In the year 2006 we exceded plan for 1,2%. Instead of 18.725,719 kt CO2 we send 20.591 kt CO2 in air The great problem is transport emission which increased for 136% and dump (waste) emission which i ncrease for 24 %.
Global warming comes with a big price tag for every country around the World. New research shows that if present trends continue, the total cost of global warming will be as high as 3.6 percent of world gross domestic product (GDP). Economic impacts may include expensive clean-up operations because of the increased frequency of extreme weather events and billions of euro in property damage resulting from the rise in sea level. Disasters in Europe is more frequant and less dramatic than in Asia or US. In the year 2008 they have been mostly result of storms.
T he average number of yearly natural disasters was 400 in the 1980s, 630 events in the 1990s, and 730 events in the last 10 years The highest number of recorded natural disasters, 960, was in 2007 by report Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurer .
The data shows us the biggest disasters all over the world. Cyclone in Myanmar took 138 t h ousand lives and winter storm Emma caused 1.5 billions us dollars costs.
Economic losses of floods in 2007 were 223,7 mio EUR what present 0,5 % of gros domestic product of Slovenia . Unfortunately six people died because they tried to save property or because of mudslides.
In 2008 Slovenia has suffered from two storms. This year storms caused 52 bilions EUR insured losses and many more economic losses.
It is interesting that both summer storms started on the west and went to te east of Slovenia. The first hited 48 municipalities and the second 56. Our area suffered from both.
The results of the second storm were
It is also interesting that two followed years brought completely different disasters. In 2005 the most losses were caused by hail and storms and in the 2006 by drought and hail. Losses increase each year. By 5 and 6% and present 0,3% of gros domestic product.
We can conclude climate change and its follow-on effects pose a severe risk to political, economic, and social stability. The aggregate effects of climate change at global and regional levels will be negative, especially in the context of multiple stresses, and will lead us to an increasingly disorderly and potentially violent world. Can we prevent this badly scenario?
We can save energy on many ways.
1. THINK FOR THE FUTURE
2. What is the problem?• burning fossil fuels energy is mainly obtained by (coal, natural gas, and petroleum), which makes up 56 % of the total energy production. (80% in central EU)• Deforestration (20%)
3. Electricity production by fuel also in GWh for Slovenia 3413 3581 3971 5884 25 340 307 37 4370 5275Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, 2007; Jozef Stefan Institute, 2007; Statistical Office of the European Communities, 2007
4. Carbon Dioxide Levels 420 Muana Loa Readings CO2 Levels Since 1958 CO2 (ppm) 370 370 350CO2 (ppm) 330 320 310 40 30 20 10 0 270 220 Dome Concordia Vostok Ice Core 170 600000 400000 200000 0 Time (YBP)
5. Emissions of CO2 on world level
6. Countries by carbon dioxide emissions RUS EU 14.7 % 5.6 % J 4.6 %US 22.2 % 18.4 % IN 4.9 %
7. Emissions by sectors in EU
8. Data source: EEA, based on CRU
9. The average summer and averagewinter temperatures for capitals of EU
10. Kyoto protocol
11. Emissions of CO2 by years and sources in Slovenia
12. Research among students of our school We found out mean value of CO2 per person anualy by using CO2 calculator.• 1.704,5 kg CO2 by heating our homes and using electricity• 1.657,6 kg CO2 for transportation• Average emission together 3,4 t CO2 per person per year We did not count goods we usualy buy and average emission is still exceeded recommanded value (2t) for 1,4 t.
13. Consequences of climate changeFloods in September 2007 in Slovenia223,7 milions EUR losses
14. Summer storms in Slovenia in 2008
15. 22 milions EUR economic losses of July storm•9.270 hectares of forest (0,5mio m3)•26 thousand hectares fieldwith crops and fruit gardenswere destroyed by hail•380 hectares of wineyards•10,5 mio EUR for destroyedhouses and 4,3 mio for roads•Stroke of wind acheivedspeed of 120 km per hour•Some scientists suspecttornado efect
16. 60 milions EUR economic losses of Auguststorm• 20 thousand hectares of crops have been destroyed• 11.518 totaly or partly destroyed houses• 14.439 farm bulidings,• 55 schools,• 163 hospitals, fireman stations,• 30 milions ensured losses and two times more unensured• crops will be lower for 10%
17. Economic losses in 2005 and 2006 +5% + 6% hail frost storm firemudslides floods storm hail drought
18. Ecopolitical problems in the world in the ifwe do not nothing to stop GHG emissions 2050s rising see level deforestration huricanes new desease decrease in agricultural productivity
19. What actions takes EU?• Average increase of temperature has not excceded 2 degrees, because it would lead to serious economic disasters (Stern review).• A reduction of at least 20% in greenhouse gases (GHG) by 2020• A 20% share of renewable energies in EU energy consumption by 2020.• The EU goal of saving 20% of energy consumption by 2020 through energy efficiency
20. Can we change our habits toprevent bad scenario of the future?
21. Answer these questions• Do you have economic bulb in your room?• How many bulbs are usually turn on in your home?• Do you put cable out of electricity when you stop loading your mobile phone?• Are yours computer and tv set usually in steady position?• What kind of transport do you use every day from home to school?
22. THINK FOR THE FUTURE ACT NOW Thank you for attention