e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

          SYSTEM ANALYSIS,

                      FORESEES

      AND MANAGEMENT OF

   E-...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April


    General problems of interrelations of society and
     e- servises are considered.

...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

 1. Introduction
     Recent ideas:
 information society (IS),
    knowledge- based socie...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

 2. Some general considerations

    First of all we should stress that
     informationa...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

     The issues from system
     analysis:

    holism (that is considering the system as...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

    The experience in system analysis allows to remark that the
     understanding of lar...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

 3. Associative memory approach
     to large socio- technical
     systems (Makarenko, 19...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

    Firstly in complex system dynamic there
     exist some global structures (for
     e...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

    There are many sub-processes in such system –
     communicational, political, social...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

 Anticipatory property for social
  systems and scenarios
    Now it became known that on...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April



    X




    0    1    2   3   t
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

 SOME APPLICATIONS

    COMPUTER COMPLEX FOR GEOPOLITICAL PROGNOZING

    AND MANY- TEAM...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

 4. e- services for cities

    Here as the first example for system analysis
     we con...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
    Thus approach allows in principle to evaluate the
     future states of cities, the fu...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

 5. Example of problem: Cheap
   notebook for all
    As the presumable problem (which ma...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

    A lot of profit exists (digital inequality decreasing, new
     possibilities, new ed...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

 6.   Country as large scale social
      system
     Illustration of the ideas above – t...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April
    It is not the secret that now a developing countries
     have a lot of serious proble...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

    The most important consequences of such way of
     development are some obsolete way...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

    Thus to improve society in developing
     countries in is necessary

    1) to reco...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

 Many tools exist for such goals:

    direct forcing for task 1,

    education of new ...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

    We should stressed that such problems are
     new and needs new investigations by ex...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

 SOME APPLICATIONS

    COMPUTER COMPLEX FOR GEOPOLITICAL PROGNOZING

    AND MANY- TEAM...
e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22
April

      ILLUSTRATIONS

            OF

      DEVELOPMENTS

           AND

        SOFTWARE
...
General Fields of
     Development

  System Analysis and Prognosis for
     Socio- Economical Systems



                ...
System Analysis and Prognosis of
       Socio- Economical Systems


                              Demograp
Productivity   ...
DEMOGRAPHYC

  MIGRATION


MODELING WITH

    GIS
CASE OF CAPITAL ATTRACTIVITY




 1   1       1
 ↓   ↓       ↓

 3   1   2   5   1   3   1
 →   →   →       ←   ←   ↓

 1 ...
System Analysis of Mega
   -cities Development

  System                   Current
 Analysis of            Administration
...
Formation of cities, model of
    isolation of harmful
manufactures for limits of city




     Institute of Applied Syste...
Medical Engineering and Socio-
    Medical Geoinformatics

Informational and          Algorithms for
    Prognosis        ...
MODELING


OF GLOBAL
GEOPOLI-
  TICAL
he Characteristics Of States
he Characteristics Of States
1994 Result
1994 Result
Virtual Result
Virtual Result


                                           Greenland
                                     ...
Example calculation of

          the

 car traffic in Darnitsa

 district of the Kiev

         city.
Traffic in center of City
Traffic from center of City
SIMULATION OF

  TRAFFIC IN

  CITIES AND

 BUILDINGDS


 Cellular automata and
 Multi - agent systems
Example 2 of traffic
      simulation
• The
  case of
  intensiv
  e traffic
• Some
  regions
  with
  concentr
  ation of...
Building car route
    with use of
    geographic
    information
      systems
MapInfo и ISGEOMap
MULTIAGENT

MODELING AND

PROGNOZING OF

   MARKET

 PROCESSES
MARKET
OSCILLATION
Separate Applied
          Investigations
                                  Multi- Agents
                     Poly-
Space...
Future Prospect Fields of
       Research and
        Development
                                   Scenarios
           ...
l e|GovDays, Prague, 19-20 April, 2006

Alexander Makarenko




       Thanks
          for
       attention
System Analysis, Foresees and Management of E-Services Impacts on Informational Societies
System Analysis, Foresees and Management of E-Services Impacts on Informational Societies
System Analysis, Foresees and Management of E-Services Impacts on Informational Societies
System Analysis, Foresees and Management of E-Services Impacts on Informational Societies
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System Analysis, Foresees and Management of E-Services Impacts on Informational Societies

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AACIMP 2009 Summer School lecture by Alexander Makarenko. "Mathematical Modelling of Social Systems" course. 5th hour. Part 1.

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System Analysis, Foresees and Management of E-Services Impacts on Informational Societies

  1. 1. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April SYSTEM ANALYSIS, FORESEES AND MANAGEMENT OF E-SERVICES IMPACTS ON INFORMATIONAL SOCIETIES Professor Alexander MAKARENKO Institute for Applied System Analysis at National Technical University of Ukraine (KPI), makalex@i.com.ua
  2. 2. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April  General problems of interrelations of society and e- servises are considered.  The system analysis of informational aspects of society is proposed which are important for development of informational technologies (IT).  New concept for considering and modeling the society, e- servises and informational technologies are described.  The problems of society and large cities are considered as the examples for application of concepts and the problems of e- servises development.  The challenges and dangers of introducing of new information technologies are discussed.
  3. 3. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April 1. Introduction Recent ideas: information society (IS),  knowledge- based society,  post- industrial society etc. Informational technologies (IT) for IS – e- services:  e- governance,  e- learning,  e- health,  e- business,  e- security,  e- cartography. Because of very fast growth of IT and e- services the practical realizations of projects and infrastructure development usually forestall the detailed theoretical investigations and foresees of future state of IT and IS.  We propose considerations on the interaction of IT and society, the possible role of e- services in society transformation, the searching of optimal way for e- services development, possible profits and dangers during such development.
  4. 4. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April 2. Some general considerations  First of all we should stress that informational technologies in developed society are not only technical object but socio- technical phenomena that is part of the society with self- influence on the society.  So the considering of IT and IS phenomena requires accounting of social aspects. Useful tools for such accounting are supplied by system analysis, cybernetics, synergetic.
  5. 5. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April The issues from system analysis:  holism (that is considering the system as the whole)  hierarchical levels in the system  complexity of the system  emergent of new properties  evolutionary nature of the systems  different space and time scales in the systems  complex interaction between elements  mentality accounting in analysis  the goals, laws of evolution of the systems  influence of environment  stability and sustainable development  different scenarios of development  risks and dangers for system  leverage points and bifurcations
  6. 6. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April  The experience in system analysis allows to remark that the understanding of large complex systems is impossible without using mathematical models, simulation and optimization methods.  Other necessary issues are costs, profits and damages.  For better understanding of IT&IS it is also desirable philosophical understanding of the society nature, human nature (especially mentality), society culture, behavior, social psychology, ecology, medicine, laws.  Different practical consequences from the analysis may be derived: foresees, strategic planning, current management in dependence of the time and space volume of the process. One of the important goals may be democratic transformation of society.  Of course different approaches and investigations have been proposed by many researchers and businessman earlier. We only remember cellular automate, multi – agent systems, system dynamics, imitational games etc.  But the accelerating of changes follows to the conclusion that the new approaches should be developed.
  7. 7. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April 3. Associative memory approach to large socio- technical systems (Makarenko, 1998, 2001) ‘Patterns’  The ‘pattern’ is the collection of elements and bonds between them at any moment of time.  Such description is useful as for environment as for the mental structures of individuals (or agents in the models).  Such ‘geometrical’ description may be transformed in pure ‘logical’ or sometimes ‘linguistic’ description
  8. 8. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April
  9. 9. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April  Firstly in complex system dynamic there exist some global structures (for example formations or civilisations).  The socio-technical system as the rule change in the frame of such structures.  Secondly, alternation in elements state frequently is determined by the influence of some environment. This can be described by some mean field approach .  There are many interrelations between the elements of complex systems (and not only in social but also in natural systems).
  10. 10. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April  There are many sub-processes in such system – communicational, political, social, cultural and so on.  The system can go from one global structure to another by two ways: evolutionary or by revolution.  Revolution can be described by fast rupture of bonds and may be unpredictable.  Evolutionary way is long and demands patience.  Yet on such global level there are phenomena of life- cycle type.  For example, the change of social formation may be considered as the change of "patterns" in such models.  Branch of industry may be considered as union of producers, consumers and mediators.  These relations have the same properties as the subjects of global model:  The bonds are build evolutionary, all structure of industry branch is rather stable,
  11. 11. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April
  12. 12. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April
  13. 13. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April
  14. 14. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April Anticipatory property for social systems and scenarios  Now it became known that one of very interesting for understanding the society property is anticipating.  The main essential new property is the possibility of multi-valued solution (that is many values of solution for some moments of time and initial conditions). This may be interpreted as the possibility of many scenarios of development for real social systems.  The second key issue is connected to property that the real social system has single realization of historical way (trajectory). So the social system as the whole makes the choice of the own trajectory at any moment of time.
  15. 15. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April X 0 1 2 3 t
  16. 16. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April SOME APPLICATIONS  COMPUTER COMPLEX FOR GEOPOLITICAL PROGNOZING  AND MANY- TEAM INTERNET TRAINING  FORMATION OF CITIES, MODEL OF ISOLATION OF HARMFUL MANUFACTURES FOR LIMITS OF CITY  DEMOGRAPHYCAL AND MIGRATION MODELING WITH GIS  MULTIAGENT MODELING AND PROGNOZING OF MARKET PROCESSES  SOME METHODOLOGIES FOR RISK EVALUATION IN LARGE HETEROGENEOUS TECHNICAL SYSTEMS  ANTICIPATORY AGENTS, SCENARIOS APPROACH IN DECISION- MAKING AND SOME QUANTUM -MECHANICAL ANALOGIES.  SOCIAL INFORMATICS – NEW EDUCATIONAL DISCIPLINE  SYNERGETICS OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS  GIS
  17. 17. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April 4. e- services for cities  Here as the first example for system analysis we consider the large city.  Such considerations may serve as some background for investigations of e- services problems in the cities and practical solutions.  According our approach the large city is the complex object with many elements and interconnections between them.  So the large city has a little number of hardly changeable natural states of development.  Attractors in our models correspond to such states.
  18. 18. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April  Thus approach allows in principle to evaluate the future states of cities, the future city center(s) location, fragmentation or consolidation of city.  Natural and relatively easy measurable phenomena and objects - geography, climate, resources, demography, and ecology also may be accounted in approach.  Useful is application of geoinformational systems of local and regional levels.  Such parameters as the mentality, mobility of habitants may be represented in approach.  The special space and time scales should be accounting in case of city just as the specific formalizations of parameters.  The approach may be useful as the framework concept for concrete problems investigations and e-services design.
  19. 19. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April 5. Example of problem: Cheap notebook for all  As the presumable problem (which may be typical for many IT tools) we propose the example of cheep (100$) notebooks program proposed by team of Nikolas Negroponte (MIT, USA).  The main idea of the program is to propose free of charge the cheep notebook with independent power generator for developing countries.  This is interesting example for further deep analysis including the social impact, e- services development, advantages and possible drawback.  Let us suppose that this program will be realized.  So imagine the limit case that all peoples in developed countries will receive the notebook and access to INTERNET.  What are the possible consequences?
  20. 20. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April  A lot of profit exists (digital inequality decreasing, new possibilities, new education, new skills etc).  But some dangers also will rise (implicit and explicit).  For example if the peoples will receive new skills without employment then we may receive the environment for crimes and terrorism (with dependence of original culture of the country).  Second problem is presumable reducing of the culture diversity and total control of society.  Third is the growth of accessible information without its transformation into knowledge.  Some usual for PC consumer health problems also may originate.  Another interesting problem is counting economical cost and optimal parameters of implementation such idea.  Remark that described problems may be considered as one of typical examples in e- services implementation.
  21. 21. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April 6. Country as large scale social system  Illustration of the ideas above – that is some problems and background in e-services application.  Here we consider the country level and especially the problems of developing countries with stressing the Ukrainian experience as the background.  Remark that such list of problems is the result of previous discussions and the system analysis.  Also some efforts have been applied to resolve the problems during the experience of NGO Atlantic Council of Ukraine and some discussion in EUROSCIENCE society.  Besides new education specialty 'social informatics' had been created in our institute with the purpose to prepare the specialists on informational technologies in society and for society.
  22. 22. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April  It is not the secret that now a developing countries have a lot of serious problems. Such problems are connected to the historical non -development or to the transformation from one state of country to another (as in former USSR countries).  At first glance the problems are evident: economical, political, the human rights, ecological, health care, poverty and many others.  But deeper analysis follows to the conclusion that common peculiarity of developing countries is the shortage of democracy and civil society.  The consequences are  the lack of adequate to recent challenge infrastructures,  lack of power structures balances  lack of public opinion accounting in the government  non-activity, non - sustainable development,  lack of environment for enterprise development.
  23. 23. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April  The most important consequences of such way of development are some obsolete way of population thinking (and mentality models of the world).  Moreover the old internal structure of such societies partially reproduces such obsolete thinking in young generations.  Namely such old mental structure and internal structure of developing society are the sources of failure of economical and political reforms in our countries.  Remark also that non - optimal top- level management in such countries implicitly has also background in the population consciousness.  Of course the diversity of cultures in general sense (by A.Toinby) leads also to diversity of domestic conditions and historical ways of development.
  24. 24. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April  Thus to improve society in developing countries in is necessary  1) to reconstruct the infrastructures in society,  2) to reconstruct the mentality of population and leaders.  In such situation the e-services may be one of the key factors !!!.  But their applications require special investigation and design of infrastructure.
  25. 25. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April Many tools exist for such goals:  direct forcing for task 1,  education of new generations for task 2,  economical stimulation for both tasks,  natural (isolated) evolution of country and many others  in dependence on the scale of the problem considered.  Also the target groups of transformation process may be different from bottom to upper level.  Remark that unfortunately frequently the international efforts and projects for developing countries are directed to top levels of governance without deep reconstruction of bottom levels, infrastructure and mentality.  Analysis of existing tools for transformations follows to the conclusion that in the solutions of the country problems above one of the most suitable tools in gaming and simulation (GS) on the base of recent informational technologies and e-services.
  26. 26. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April  We should stressed that such problems are new and needs new investigations by expert community,  but mathematical modeling is one of the (or may be unique) tool for considering such complex object, doing virtual experiments and designing the transformation events.  The multi- agent approach and author's models are good technical tools for such investigations.  Of course it needs also special investigations on necessary resources and financial base, considering the different possible scenarios which are intrinsic for large social systems, risks evaluations and collaboration of international and domestic specialists on IT, GIS, GS , politics, scientists and independent experts.
  27. 27. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April SOME APPLICATIONS  COMPUTER COMPLEX FOR GEOPOLITICAL PROGNOZING  AND MANY- TEAM INTERNET TRAINING  FORMATION OF CITIES, MODEL OF ISOLATION OF HARMFUL MANUFACTURES FOR LIMITS OF CITY  DEMOGRAPHYCAL AND MIGRATION MODELING WITH GIS  MULTIAGENT MODELING AND PROGNOZING OF MARKET PROCESSES  SOME METHODOLOGIES FOR RISK EVALUATION IN LARGE HETEROGENEOUS TECHNICAL SYSTEMS  ANTICIPATORY AGENTS, SCENARIOS APPROACH IN DECISION- MAKING AND SOME QUANTUM -MECHANICAL ANALOGIES.  SOCIAL INFORMATICS – NEW EDUCATIONAL DISCIPLINE  SYNERGETICS OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS  GIS
  28. 28. e|GovDays, Prague, 19-22 April ILLUSTRATIONS OF DEVELOPMENTS AND SOFTWARE POSSIBILITIES
  29. 29. General Fields of Development System Analysis and Prognosis for Socio- Economical Systems Medical System Analysis Engineering and of Large Cities socio- medical Evolution Geoinformatics Information Separate Applied Technologies for and Theoretical Education Investigations
  30. 30. System Analysis and Prognosis of Socio- Economical Systems Demograp Productivity Capital hical of Labor Store dynamics Population Prognosis of Salary on Involvement Population Labor Migration in Labor
  31. 31. DEMOGRAPHYC MIGRATION MODELING WITH GIS
  32. 32. CASE OF CAPITAL ATTRACTIVITY 1 1 1 ↓ ↓ ↓ 3 1 2 5 1 3 1 → → → ← ← ↓ 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 ↑ ↑ ↑ ← ↓ ↓ ← 1 1 1 4 5 1 ↑ → → → ← 1 1 1 2 ↑ ← ↑ ↑ 2 1 ↑ ← 1 ↑
  33. 33. System Analysis of Mega -cities Development System Current Analysis of Administration Sustainable Problems of Development Kiev of cities Development Scenario analysis of harmful firms removal from mega- cities
  34. 34. Formation of cities, model of isolation of harmful manufactures for limits of city Institute of Applied System Analysis Makarenko Alexander, Trofimenko Alexander
  35. 35. Medical Engineering and Socio- Medical Geoinformatics Informational and Algorithms for Prognosis Patient Medical Support in Information Epidemiology Processing System Analysis of Pollutant Influence on Population Health: Monitoring, Analysis, Prognosis and Planning
  36. 36. MODELING OF GLOBAL GEOPOLI- TICAL
  37. 37. he Characteristics Of States he Characteristics Of States
  38. 38. 1994 Result 1994 Result
  39. 39. Virtual Result Virtual Result Greenland Greenland Iceland Iceland Finland Finland Russian Federation Russian Federation Canada Canada Denmark Denmark Belarus Belarus Austria Ukraine Austria Ukraine Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Mongolia Mongolia Andorra Albania Andorra Albania Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan Azores (port.) Azores (port.) Armenia Armenia United States United States Gibraltar Malta Cyprus Gibraltar Malta Cyprus China China Japan Japan Bermuda Afghanistan Afghanistan Bermuda Algeria Algeria Nepal Nepal Egypt Bahrain Egypt Bahrain Mexico Bahamas Mexico Bahamas Bangladesh Hong Kong Bangladesh Hong Kong Oman Oman Belize Belize Anguilla Anguilla Cape Verde Mali Niger Chad Cape Verde Mali Niger Chad Aruba (neth.) Aruba Cambodia Cambodia Guam Guam Djibouti Djibouti Guinea Benin Guinea Benin Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Micronesia, Fed St Micronesia, Fed St Colombia Somalia Somalia Brunei Darussalam Brunei Darussalam Colombia Maldives Congo Congo Maldives Ecuador Ecuador Burundi Burundi Seychelles Seychelles Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Peru Peru Brazil Angola Angola Comoros Comoros Bolivia Bolivia Madagascar Madagascar Paraguay Paraguay Botswana Botswana Australia Lesotho Lesotho Argentina Argentina Falkland Islands Falkland Islands
  40. 40. Example calculation of the car traffic in Darnitsa district of the Kiev city.
  41. 41. Traffic in center of City Traffic from center of City
  42. 42. SIMULATION OF TRAFFIC IN CITIES AND BUILDINGDS Cellular automata and Multi - agent systems
  43. 43. Example 2 of traffic simulation • The case of intensiv e traffic • Some regions with concentr ation of element s and car jam
  44. 44. Building car route with use of geographic information systems MapInfo и ISGEOMap
  45. 45. MULTIAGENT MODELING AND PROGNOZING OF MARKET PROCESSES
  46. 46. MARKET OSCILLATION
  47. 47. Separate Applied Investigations Multi- Agents Poly- Space Plasma Models for dispersed Statistical Socio- Fuels Investigations Economical Investigations Systems Virtual Computer Chemistry Laboratory System Complexity Algorithms for Neuronet Algorithms Neuro- signals Models and and Processing Algorithms Investigations
  48. 48. Future Prospect Fields of Research and Development Scenarios Application of Analysis and Bioinformatics Multi- valued Risks in Models Socio- Technical Systems New Neuroinformati Consciousnes Algorithms for cs and s Pattern Neurophysiolo Investigations Recognition gy and Modeling Quantum Control and Computing Strategic Optimization and New Planning for for Mobile Information Ukraine Robots Processing Algorithms
  49. 49. l e|GovDays, Prague, 19-20 April, 2006 Alexander Makarenko Thanks for attention

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