Global Warming Effects
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Like this? Share it with your network

Share

Global Warming Effects

on

  • 1,147 views

AACIMP 2009 Summer School lecture by Yoshio Matsuki. "Environmental Externalities of Energy Options - Basics and Applications" course. 6th hour.

AACIMP 2009 Summer School lecture by Yoshio Matsuki. "Environmental Externalities of Energy Options - Basics and Applications" course. 6th hour.

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,147
Views on SlideShare
1,112
Embed Views
35

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
33
Comments
0

2 Embeds 35

http://summerschool.ssa.org.ua 30
http://www.slideshare.net 5

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Global Warming Effects Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Externalities, Global Warming Effects Y. Matsuki August 14, 2009, at 15:00 a.m. Presented at the NTUU “KPI”
  • 2. Basic approaches for estimating the global climate change impacts are? Estimate the CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions Use these estimates in a global climate model to estimate the global temperature rise Use the temperature rise in an effects (impacts) model to estimate the possible impacts and damage
  • 3. Potential impacts of global warming Response of vegetation Increases in crops and forest growth associated with enhanced atmospheric CO2 concentration Response of agriculture Response of managed forest and grasslands Water resources
  • 4. Potential impacts of global warming Marine and coastal environments Natural landscapes and ecosystems Human health Industry and energy Coastal settlements and structures Importance of adaptation
  • 5. Response in vegetation Is quantitative response function for temperature well established? No. Are potential CO2-temperature interactions in plant response understood? No, even more poorly understood. One more important issue? Water, moisture
  • 6. Increases in crops and forest growth associated with enhanced atmospheric CO2 concentration What is it? Beneficial effect of the global warming. Fertilizer effect – mitigate the impact - Positive effect on agriculture Indirect effect – weed, pest, insect Others – nitrogen and other nutrients
  • 7. Response of agriculture Positive impact Drought, flood High interest rates, low price, changing consumer preference Adaptation? Out put in 2030 – Cline – 10% loss Kane 13,000 million USD, Adam 34,000 million USD
  • 8. Response of managed forest and grasslands Do trees more ability to adapt? No. Trees have long lifetime, so less adaptable then agricultural crops. Young trees may be. But middle aged trees are problem. How the forests in future look? Different. – Musselman and Fox
  • 9. Response of water resources Regional change in precipitation Impacts on surface/ground water Are these easy to quantify? No. Adaptive project – what are they? Dams, canals Engineered improvement in efficiency of crops, tech. innovation in industry.
  • 10. Response of marine and coastal environment Are they adaptive? No, least adaptive options exist. Nature is slower in adapting than human. What are the adaptive measure of Sea level rise? Dykes and sea walls However, ecological and economic impacts Is sea level rise fast? Rather slow. --- general view
  • 11. Response of natural landscapes and ecosystems Are successful adaptation likely for them? No. Less likely. Because Time scale of global climate change is rapid then the nature’s Isolation of natural ecosystem by agricultural and urban land.
  • 12. Response to human health Remarkably adaptable? Change distribution of disease, and indirect health impacts. Industrialized countries - adaptable Poorer countries
  • 13. Economic valuation of impacts of global climate change Estimates of economic damages by Nordhaus and Cline Illustrative estimates of damages Summary of estimates from several studies Uncertainty in estimates
  • 14. Estimate of economic damages by Nordhaus and Cline Cline – only market effect Doubling CO2, 2.5°C temperature rise Without aggressive policy, additional 7.5°C above 2.5°C, doubling CO2 in 300 years. Non linear damage function from 10°C back to 2.5°C warming. Nordhaus – with non-market effect Summary is in the next Tale XXVI. Reilly and Richards point out: Cline and Nordhaus point to a loss of World GDP about 1%
  • 15. Illustrative estimates of damages Reilly and Richards Global warming potential index On agricultural impacts estimated by Kane Fertilization benefits
  • 16. Summary of estimates from several studies Fankhauser --- the best? 240,000 deaths annually from all global warming impacts Value of statistical life = 0.1 million USD Hohmeyer and Gartner Less moisture in soil lower the agriculture 45 million deaths per year from starvation alone Value of statistical life = 1 million USD
  • 17. Uncertainty in estimates Non-market impacts Sensitivity of damage estimates to different assumption Time paths of emissions Improve understanding on economic damages.