General Problems of Social System Modelling & Problems and Models of Sustainable Development
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

General Problems of Social System Modelling & Problems and Models of Sustainable Development

on

  • 1,806 views

AACIMP 2010 Summer School lecture by Alexander Makarenko. "Applied Mathematics" stream. "General Tasks and Problems of Modelling of Social Systems. Problems and Models in Sustainable Development" ...

AACIMP 2010 Summer School lecture by Alexander Makarenko. "Applied Mathematics" stream. "General Tasks and Problems of Modelling of Social Systems. Problems and Models in Sustainable Development" course. Part 1.
More info at http://summerschool.ssa.org.ua

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,806
Views on SlideShare
1,734
Embed Views
72

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
11
Comments
0

3 Embeds 72

http://summerschool.ssa.org.ua 68
http://www.summerschool.ssa.org.ua 2
http://ssa.org.ua 2

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    General Problems of Social System Modelling & Problems and Models of Sustainable Development General Problems of Social System Modelling & Problems and Models of Sustainable Development Presentation Transcript

    • General Problems of Social System Modelling & Problems and Models of Sustainable Development Professor Alexander S. MAKARENKO Institute for Applied System Analysis at National Technical University of Ukraine (KPI) , Kyiv, Ukraine, Head of Applied Nonlinear Analysis Department E-mail: makalex@i.com.ua
    • The lecture course is devoted to the description of recent opportunities which are supplied by precise sciences: physics, mathematics, synergetic, informatics etc. for understanding of behavior, modeling and forecasting of one of the most complex recent systems, namely those which include humans and especially large collections of peoples. The examples are social, economical, political and global systems.
    • BLOCS OF LECTURES: 1. General description of social systems and problems of their modeling. 2. Existing models and algorithms for social systems. 3. Problem of sustainable development. Formalization and modeling. 4. Recent and future problems in social systems modeling.
    • SCIENCES IN SOCIETY RESEARCH *** More recent scientific disciplines (more mathematical as usual !): Physics, Theoretical Physics, Self-organization theory, Pure mathematics, Biology, System Analysis, General systems theory, Operational research, Information technologies, Cybernetics, Neurophysiology, Complexity and information theory, Evolution theory ** Classical Sciences: Philosophy, Sociology, Politology, Demography, Art, Archeology, Management sciences, Geography, Teology, * SOCIETY*
    • ** Classical Sciences: Philosophy, Sociology, Politology, Demography, Art, Archeology, Management sciences, Geography, Teology,
    • *** More recent scientific disciplines (more mathematical as usual !) : Physics, Theoretical Physics, Self-organization theory, Pure mathematics, Biology, System Analysis, General systems theory, Operational research, Information technologies, Cybernetics, Neurophysiology, Complexity and information theory, Evolution theory
    • The issues from system analysis: holism (that is considering the system as the whole); hierarchical levels in the system; complexity of the system; emergent of new properties; evolutionary nature of the systems; different space and time scales in the systems; complex interaction between elements; mentality accounting in analysis; the goals, laws of evolution of the systems; influence of environment; stability and sustainable development; different scenarios of development; risks and dangers for system; leverage points and bifurcations;
    • AUTHORITIES (CLASSICS): Weiner, J. von Neumann, Prigogine, Ashby, Bertalanfi, Rosen, Rashevski, Eresmann, Chikelend, Maturana, Varela, Miller, Swanson, Zadeh, Chikelend, Turchin, Mayer- Cress, Moiseev, Glushkov, …
    • Time scales of social systems  Universe  ---------  Seconds  -------
    • Space scales of social systems  Universe  --------  --------  -------  Individuum
    • PECULARITIES OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS (1): Firstly in complex system dynamic there exist some global structures (for example formations or civilisations). The socio-technical system as the rule change in the frame of such structures. Secondly, alternation in elements state frequently is determined by the influence of some environment. This can be described by some mean field approach . There are many interrelations between the elements of complex systems (and not only in social but also in natural systems).
    • PECULARITIES OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS (2): There are many sub-processes in such system – communicational, political, social, cultural and so on. The system can go from one global structure to another by two ways: evolutionary or by revolution. Revolution can be described by fast rupture of bonds and may be unpredictable. Evolutionary way is long and demands patience. Yet on such global level there are phenomena of life- cycle type.
    • For example, the change of social formation may be considered as the change of "patterns" in such models. Branch of industry may be considered as union of producers, consumers and mediators. These relations have the same properties as the subjects of global model: The bonds are build evolutionary, all structure of industry branch is rather stable,
    • SOME APPLICATIONS COMPUTER COMPLEX FOR GEOPOLITICAL PROGNOZING AND MANY- TEAM INTERNET TRAINING FORMATION OF CITIES, MODEL OF ISOLATION OF HARMFUL MANUFACTURES FOR LIMITS OF CITY DEMOGRAPHYCAL AND MIGRATION MODELING WITH GIS MULTIAGENT MODELING AND PROGNOZING OF MARKET PROCESSES SOME METHODOLOGIES FOR RISK EVALUATION IN LARGE HETEROGENEOUS TECHNICAL SYSTEMS ANTICIPATORY AGENTS, SCENARIOS APPROACH IN DECISION- MAKING AND SOME QUANTUM -MECHANICAL ANALOGIES. SOCIAL INFORMATICS – NEW EDUCATIONAL DISCIPLINE SYNERGETICS OF SOCIAL SYSTEMS GIS (GEOINFORMATION SYSTEMS)
    • Main Classes of Models (1)  1. System Dynamics  2. Econometrical and algebraic  3. Discrete time models  4. Ordinary differential equations  5. Partial differential equations  6. Markov’s chains  7. Stochastic equations  8. Active Brownian particles
    • Main Classes of Models (2)  9. Associative memory  10. Cellular automata  11. Multi-agent models  12. Networks structures approach  13. Econophysics  14. Sociophysics  15. Kinetic equations  16. Future developments
    • Examples of problems in social modeling (1)  Global  Sustainable development
    • Examples of problems in social system modeling (2)  State (country) scales
    • Examples of problems of social system modeling (3)  City
    • Examples of problems of social systems modeling (3)  Small groups of peoples  Organizations