International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science         Advanced technology for         ...
Question:        International Symposium on Global Sustainability   Institute of Sustainable ScienceCan technology make pe...
Evaluation of Energy                                     International Symposium on Global Sustainability  Institute of Su...
risk of energy generation
Damaged Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station                                                 Materials by Dr. S. MachiN...
Overview of Mark-I Type BWR (Fukushima Unit-1, 2, 3, 4 and 5)Reactor Building     (R/B)                                   ...
Major Events at Unit No.1 (4/4)    -Injection of Seawater using by Fire Pump   -Venting of S/C for Depressurizing PCV     ...
Accident Situation at the Spent Fuel Pool                                                                                 ...
Radioactive Emission control   Institute of Sustainable Science                                              International...
Analyzing plumeInstitute of Sustainable Science                                   International Symposium on Global Sustai...
Radiation level in atmosphere by prefecture                                                             May 8, 2011 (Unit ...
Activity on the surfaceSurveyed.Nuclides analyzed.Cumulative external doseEstimated.(life style considered.) - Children do...
Nuclides in the environment    Institute of Sustainable Science                                       International Sympos...
Institute of Sustainable Science                                       Radiation risk                                     ...
Environmental tritium, historyInstitute of Sustainable Science                                   International Symposium o...
Environmental tritiumInstitute of Sustainable Science                                           International Symposium on...
Tritium in the Water in Japan              Institute of Sustainable Science                                               ...
Tritium in the Water in Japan 2                      Institute of Sustainable Science                                     ...
Cedar                       100                                           Wine                                            ...
Radioactive Emission control   Institute of Sustainable Science                                              International...
Nuclides in the environment Tutorial courseof Sustainable Science      Institute                                         I...
Impact pathway of nuclides       Institute of Sustainable Science                                                         ...
Tritium in the environment    Institute of Sustainable Science                                       International Symposi...
Radiation doseInstitute of Sustainable Science                                              International Symposium on Glo...
Risk of generation technologyInstitute of Sustainable Science                                     International Symposium ...
Annual deaths worldwide from                various causes                                           Source: IEA World Ene...
Distancestravelled tocollectfuelwood inrural Tanzania;the averageload is around20 kgSource: IEA World Energy Outlook2006
がん死亡のリスク                             Cancer risk     International Symposium on Global Sustainability    Institute of Sust...
Carcinogenic foods   Institute of Sustainable Science                                      International Symposium on Glob...
Comparison of risk     International Symposium on Global Sustainability    Institute of Sustainable Science        Actions...
Risk of Generation Technology                                         International Symposium on Global Sustainability    ...
Risk for death        Institute of Sustainable Science           Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University Causes of ...
Death risk          Institute of Sustainable Science           Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University    Actions t...
risk of energy supply
Energy supply Issue   Institute of Sustainable Science                                      International Symposium on Glo...
Electric Grid in Japan –Structure –                                           International Symposium on Global Sustainabi...
Giga Blackout                                            International Symposium on Global Sustainability     Institute of...
Daily Peaks                                       International Symposium on Global Sustainability    Institute of Sustain...
Fluctuation of renewable                                                                                             Inter...
Future low carbon Systems                                                   International Symposium on Global Sustainabili...
Carbon-free elcecticty systems                                                                                     Interna...
Governing risks of technology                                      International Symposium on Global Sustainability   Inst...
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Advanced energy technology for sustainable development. Part 5

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AACIMP 2011 Summer School. Science of Global Challenges Stream. Lecture by Satoshi Konishi.

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Advanced energy technology for sustainable development. Part 5

  1. 1. International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science Advanced technology for sustainable development - Analysis of fusion from sustainability - Satoshi Konishi Institute for Sustainability Science, Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University Aug 13, 2011Contents - technological, environmental,biolobical and social risk - radiation, tritium, cancer and life - Sustainability issue
  2. 2. Question: International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable ScienceCan technology make people happy?-people (individual) regards energy as a risk for their life.Energy ( in fact, all the technology) must be analyzed for risk and benefit.What does technology have to do?- to avoid risks for sustainabilityBut, the researchers do not understand how their work would DAMAGE the environment, person, and social system.- regardless of the source, energy itself is not sustainable.
  3. 3. Evaluation of Energy International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable ScienceFuture energy must respond to thedemand of the society.・All the R&D programs are evaluated from the aspect of social acceptance. -All the energy technologies are evaluated from the aspect of future social risk. - “Effect” cannot always be measured in monetary terms. - Energy supply affects environment, public and society through various paths other than market. (Externality) →Investment for research and development can be justified from the expected effect to the future society.
  4. 4. risk of energy generation
  5. 5. Damaged Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Materials by Dr. S. MachiNo. 1, 2, 3 in operation,No. 4, 5, 6 inspection/maintenance14:46 3/11 Great East Japan Earthquake All reactors stopped. External power lost. Emergency Core Cooling System ActivatedTsunami(~15m) attacked15:41 Emergency powers lost,16:36 Cooling lost. After heat of fuels damages the core.20:50 Evacuation started Reaction with fuel and water generate Hydrogen.15:36 3/12 Hydrogen explosion destroyed the building of No1 reactor.11:01 3/14 Hydrogen explosion destroyed the building of No3 reactor.06:10 3/15 Building of No2 reactor exploded.. Fire at No4 reactor
  6. 6. Overview of Mark-I Type BWR (Fukushima Unit-1, 2, 3, 4 and 5)Reactor Building (R/B) Spent Fuel Pool Dry Well Reactor Pressure Pressure Vessel (RPV) Containment Vessel (PCV) Source: http://nei.cachefly.net/static/images/BWR_illastration.jpg Suppression ChamberSource: The 2011 Pacific Coast of Tohoku Pacific Earthquake and the Seismic Damage of the NPPs, p9, Report to IAEA from NISA and JENES, 4th April, 2011
  7. 7. Major Events at Unit No.1 (4/4) -Injection of Seawater using by Fire Pump -Venting of S/C for Depressurizing PCV Seawater was poured into the RPV using by the exiting fire pumpVenting of S/C in orderto depressurize thePCV Source: The 2011 Pacific Coast of Tohoku Pacific Earthquake and the Seismic Damage of the NPPs, p20, Report to IAEA from NISA and JENES, 4th April, 2011
  8. 8. Accident Situation at the Spent Fuel Pool Lack of Cooling CapabilityDecrease of Water Level in the Spent Fuel PoolExposing of Fuel Rods Fuel FailureGeneration of Hydrogen and Explosion R/B Isolation Cooling Water System Source: The 2011 Pacific Coast of Tohoku Pacific Earthquake and the Seismic Damage of the NPPs, p34, Report to IAEA from NISA and JENES, 4th April, 2011
  9. 9. Radioactive Emission control Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global SustainabilityFacility controlsradioactive Backemission (Bq/y) ground plume environment facility plant dose soil Ground Sea Site boundary water water fish Effect is evaluated as dose(Sv) confinement e.g. 1 mSv/y normal, public Minimize unnecessary dose 20mSv, 100mSv…As Low As Practically Achieved
  10. 10. Analyzing plumeInstitute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability
  11. 11. Radiation level in atmosphere by prefecture May 8, 2011 (Unit : μSv/h) Hokkaido 0.04 MiyagiBackground level; Tokyo: 0.0780.028-0.079 (630km) (90km) Tokyo 0.04 Iwaki (220km) 0.25 Fukushima (43km) 1.49 Osaka (61km) 0.08 (400km) 100km FukushimaⅠ NPS 200km FukushimaⅡN PS Sources : Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Fukushima prefectural government
  12. 12. Activity on the surfaceSurveyed.Nuclides analyzed.Cumulative external doseEstimated.(life style considered.) - Children dose <10mSv
  13. 13. Nuclides in the environment Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability• Behavior of radio-nuclides is well understood for fission facilities, mainly by plume model.• Radio activity is released by the accident• Nuclides diffuses as “plume” and deposit and go away. External dose estimated.• Some nuclides are enriched by biological process and food chain.• Dose is estimated from the activity.• Risks on the health is estimated from the collective dose. Radiation may kill. But how likely is it?
  14. 14. Institute of Sustainable Science Radiation risk International Symposium on Global Sustainability• We (life-forms ) on the earth have lived with radiation for billions of years.• Radiation safety is well controlled, but• Modern science and technology have significantly changed our dose.…..fusion may change it again.
  15. 15. Environmental tritium, historyInstitute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability 1.Natural production by cosmic ray Discovered in 1949 in the environment 2.Atmospheric nuclear tests in 1950s to 1960s First bomb in 1945(Nevada)、first fusion bomb in 1954 Atmospheric nuclear test ban treaty in 1963 (global fallout, tracer for air mass, seawater etc) 3.Peaceful use of nuclear energy Nuclear power station in Japan(55)、world(434)、nuclear fuel treatment facility 4.Nuclear fusion reactor (a huge amount, local emission) 15 Prof. Momoshima Kyushu University
  16. 16. Environmental tritiumInstitute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability 1.Cosmic ray 2. Nuclear bomb Natural T≒2.7 kg 1-1.3 EBq 240 EBq (185-240) 14 N+n —> 3H+12 C 16 O+n —> 3H+14 N World inventory (2010) 1-1.3 EBq (1) + 17 EBq (13-17) 3. Consumer products 3. Nuclear stations 4. Fusion 0.4 EBq y-1 0.02 EBq y-1 reactor (0.3-0.4) (0.01-0.02) 1000MW Earth crust (~5kg) 6 Li+n—> 3 H+ 4 He 238 U+n—> 3 H+Products EBq=1018 16 Prof. Momoshima Kyushu University
  17. 17. Tritium in the Water in Japan Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability 250 Prof. Momoshima Kyushu University 200 Fallout from nuclear 150 detonationBq/L Tritium concentration (Bq/L) 100 Fukuoka, Japan 50 2.5 0 2.0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1.5 We experienced 200 times high 1.0 Tritium level. 0.5 0.0 1980 1985 1990 199517 year
  18. 18. Tritium in the Water in Japan 2 Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability 4.0 1982 river 1983 lakeconcentration(Bq/L) 3.5 2005 river 2005 lake 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 latitude Prof. Momoshima Kyushu University
  19. 19. Cedar 100 Wine RainConcentration (Bq/L) Fukuoka, japan 10 1 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Year Environmental tritium is trapped by plants, 19 Prof. Momoshima Kyushu University
  20. 20. Radioactive Emission control Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global SustainabilityFacility controlsradioactive Backemission (Bq/y) ground plume environment facility plant dose soil Ground Sea Site boundary water water fish Effect is evaluated as dose(Sv) confinement e.g. 1 mSv/y normal, public Minimize unnecessary dose 20mSv, 100mSv…As Low As Practically Achieved
  21. 21. Nuclides in the environment Tutorial courseof Sustainable Science Institute International Symposium on Global Sustainability• Behavior of radio-nuclides is well understood for fission facilities• Major concern is accident• Nuclides diffuses as “plume” and deposit and go away.• Some nuclides are enriched by biological process and food chain.• Dose is easily estimated from the activity.• Isotopic contents in the environment is not usually a problem. (---All different for tritium!)
  22. 22. Impact pathway of nuclides Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability N O RM A L / W IN D D IF F U SI ON A C C ID EN T A LF A C IL IT Y NUCLIDE PLU ME R EL EA SE A T M OSP H ER E A T M OSP HE R E DRY W ET D E POSI T IO N D E POS IT I ON W A SH OU T SU R F A C E W A T ER F IS H PL A N T SU R F A C E S O I L P L AN T BODY SURFACE GR A Z IN G A NI MA L SH A L L OW SO IL D E EP S OIL D R IN K IN G WA T ER IN H A L A T IO N SK IN IN J ES TI ON A B S OR PT I ON H U MA N BO D Y H U M A N BO D Y DNA E FF E C T IV E D OSE E QU IVA L E NTUnderstanding the impact pathway D O S E E F F EC TIs required to evaluate the effect. Cause cancer?
  23. 23. Tritium in the environment Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability• Tritiated water is a major concern• Many of the facilities discharge by normal operation.• Tritium is diluted by natural water.• Biological processes changes chemical forms. i.e. H2 – HTO – OBT (organically bound tritium)• Natural background and environmental recycling• Specific for food, environment, culture and habits• Dose may not be a good measure of damage --range of beta is very short. (~0.5mm)
  24. 24. Radiation doseInstitute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability World average Japanese average medical medical Fall out natural natural Fall out other. Power plant etc. jett flight etc. Fall out : falling radioactive materials from nuclear detonation test
  25. 25. Risk of generation technologyInstitute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability (mEURO/kWh) (ExternE 1999)
  26. 26. Annual deaths worldwide from various causes Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006“environmentally friendly” energy kills.
  27. 27. Distancestravelled tocollectfuelwood inrural Tanzania;the averageload is around20 kgSource: IEA World Energy Outlook2006
  28. 28. がん死亡のリスク Cancer risk International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science Cause of cancers• radiation comes from medical and natural sources.• controlled risks cannot be the major reason of cancer medical treatment Cause of cancer deaths Industrial Geophysical (incl. radon) products infection pollution smoking occupation birth al Food additives alcohol Food Dolland Peto, 1981
  29. 29. Carcinogenic foods Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability Foods can cause cancers by their ingredients• carcinogenesis is evaluated experimentally, with analysis based on LNT. Mainly natural Foods can also prevent cancer, that is not considered here. Ames and Gold, 1998
  30. 30. Comparison of risk International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science Actions to increase the death risk by 1/1000000 One safe action Wine 500cc hepatocirrhosis 2 days in New York Air pollution can cause 16km by bicycle accident another risk. 480km by car accident 1600km flight accident Some of the 10000km flight Cosmic ray 2 months in brick building Radon (natural) safety X-ray examination Radiation dose measures are 2 months Living with smoker cancer 30 cans diet coke cancer unreasonable. 150 year living in 30kmfrom Nuclear plant Radiation dose Artificial risks 2 months living in Denver, CO. radiation 1 year drinking tap water halogen are well 1.4 cigarette cancer controlled now. 3 hours in coal mine accident wilson, 1979 Fukushima accident 100~1000 times larger
  31. 31. Risk of Generation Technology International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science Electricity Kills Coal – world average 161• Hydro:Dam construction. Coal – China 278 Coal – USA 15 Dam distruction in China(1975)。 Oil 36 (36% of world energy)• Fire:Explosion, drop, Natural Gas 4 mechanical. Coal mining. Peat 12 Solar (rooftop) 0.44 Pollution. Wind 0.15• Biomass:Air Pollution, timber. Hydro 0.10 (europe)• Nuclear:Mihama,5. Uranium Hydro - world 1.4 (171,000 Banqiao dead) mining, Radon from U. Nuclear 0.04 Chernobyl 28+19, cancer 15. (incl. Chernobyl 1986 possible cancer 100000? assuming 4000 death) [death/Twh] (by WHO data,etc.)• Solar:drop from roofs
  32. 32. Risk for death Institute of Sustainable Science Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University Causes of death in Japan 1980 2002 tuberculosis 5.5 1.8 cancer 139.1 241.7• 1/3 died of cancer diabetes 7.3 10 cardiac 106.2 121• Suicide and accident, other hipertension 13.7 4.5 stroke 139.5 103.4 than sickness pneumonia 28.4 69.4 asthma 5.5 3• Young people are killed by Stomach 4.8 3.9 accident, and themselves ulcer hepatitis 16.3 12.8 (in US, murder is a major Renal failure 6.1 14.4 senility 27.6 18 cause.) accident 25.1 30.7 traffic 11.4 9.3 suicide 17.7 23.8 Deaty per year per 100,000 厚生労働省、人口動態統計 total 621.4 779.6
  33. 33. Death risk Institute of Sustainable Science Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University Actions to increase the death risk by 1/1000000 Wine 500cc hepatocirrhosis One safe action 2 days in New York Air pollution can cause another 16km by bicycle accident 480km by car accident risk. 1600km flight accident Some of the 10000km flight Cosmic ray 2 months in brick building Radon (natural) safety measures X-ray examination Radiation dose are unreasonable. 2 months Living with smoker cancer Artifical risks 30 cans diet coke cancer 150 year living in 30kmfrom are well Nuclear plant Radiation dose controlled now. 2 months living in Denver, CO. radiation 1 year drinking tap water halogen 1.4 cigarette cancer 3 hours in coal mine accident wilson, 1979
  34. 34. risk of energy supply
  35. 35. Energy supply Issue Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global SustainabilityShortage / blackout risk Strict electricity saving and peak shifting are planned. Blackout is unpredictable, but demand/supply balance is reported by real time announcement. Local generation / Storage will mitigate the difficulty.Long term strategy Renewables are expected and will be strongly supported. Use of fire-power is not favored. Vulnerability increases. Robust grid is needed by supporting instability of the sources.
  36. 36. Electric Grid in Japan –Structure – International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable ScienceComb structure due to geographical reason Hokkaido 5,345MW Utility Name 579MW DC connection Max. demand (~2003) Largest Unit (Nuclear) 600MW Hokuriku Tohoku West Japan Grid 5,508MW 14,489MW 60Hz, ~100GW 540MW 825MW 600MWKyushu Chugoku Kansai Chubu Tokyo17,061MW 12,002MW 33,060MW 27,500MW 64,300MW 820MW 1,180MW 1,180MW 1,380MW 1,356MW Shikoku 300MW 5,925MW East Japan Grid 890MW 50Hz, ~80GW ~50GW
  37. 37. Giga Blackout International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable ScienceAll the generators on the grids are synchronized → Exactly same amount generated as demanded.Sudden increase of demand or unstable generator• Demands exceed generation capacity• Frequency drops (~0.1%) time(sec) 0• Load to the generators -0.05 0 5 10 15 20 25 30• Generator disconnected -0.1 frequency(Hz) -0.15 Physics Today, vol.55, No.4 -0.2 (2002) 23MW/sec Frequency drop by load -0.25 77MW/sec 230MW/secChain reaction kills the grid. Small grid, large load, -0.3 →unstable renewables can Fast change should be -0.35 Avoided. initiate the blackout.
  38. 38. Daily Peaks International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science• For near term, leveling of Solar the load is important. Wind Hydro• Local generators, co- generation and batteries Load Leveling variable preferred. Fire needed• Increased renewable Hydro jeopardizes grid Base Nuclear• For future, substitute of Fire(Coal) load . fire power needed. Hydro →only load leveling power 0 6 12 18 24(h) is preferred.
  39. 39. Fluctuation of renewable International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science Required 1.8 ― Insolation Intensity ― DC Power Stabilizing 5/14 (Cloudy) 0.18 240 Spring (4/1-6/30) Insolation Intensity [kW/m2] Electrical Energy [kWh/day] 1.6 1.4 power 0.16 0.14 220 200 DC Power [kW] 180 1.2 0.12 160 1.0 0.10 140 0.8 0.08 120 0.6 0.06 100 0.4 0.04 80 60 0.2 0.02 40 0.0 0.00 20 -0.2 -0.02 0 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 4/15 4/30 5/15 5/30 6/14 6/29 Time Date Change of solar in a day Daily change of solar・unpredictable change of generating power of renewable is large・time constant of seconds・controlled power to compensate this change needed・connecting to grid decreases amplitude but not time constant・fire power can provide only slow change (~5%/min)
  40. 40. Future low carbon Systems International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science fusion Fire Electricity must be powered by nuclear (fade out) Carbon-free sources Both large grid and local systems are needed. Large scale gridFuel Battery, generators and fuel cells Stabilizes Local systems fluctuation by renewables. Large scale supply of fuels for Solar cell Fuel cells needed. Fuel Cells Battery generators PHV,EV
  41. 41. Carbon-free elcecticty systems International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science Power Max.pow capacity[ units area[m2] Vol.[m3] [kW] er[kW] kWh] Solar 633 566.2 - - 4740 - NaS-1 364.7 420 2625 7 - 16.7 SOFC - 988 - - - 5.6 計 998 1974 2625 7 4740 22.2 SOFC+NaS+Solar①, Summer, Fine SOFC+NaS+Solar①, Summer, Rain Large scale grid Large scale grid 1200 SOFC Electrical Energy [kWh/h] 1200 SOFCElectrical Energy [kWh/h] NaS-2 NaS-2 NaS-1 1000 NaS-1 1000 Solar Solar 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 -200 -200 -400 -400 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 Time [h] Time [h]
  42. 42. Governing risks of technology International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable ScienceExternality analysis ・All the risks and benefits of the technology can be analyzed from the Externality aspects. ・Many of those effects are predictable, and converted to monetary terms. ・Some of the risks are evaluated as the death probability from statistics. ・Investment for technology development must consider the effect of the product from this risk and benefit analysis, and risk mitigation cost. ・Reasonable investment for the development and mitigation/prevention can be evaluated quantitatively.For the governance of technologyTechnology and its effect are predictable, and reasonable investment canbe planned,However, many of the development and risk mitigation are far from it. we can find many bad examples.
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