International Symposium on Global SustainabilityInstitute of Sustainable ScienceAdvanced energy technology for sustainable development - Analysis of energy for sustainability- Satoshi Konishi Institute for Sustainability Science, Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University Aug.12-13, 2011 Summer School AACIMP-2011 Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Ukraine
Outline of the lecture International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science1. Sustainability, its concept and model in the ecological system2. Global environment problem, resource and future energy3. Effect of energy technology development4. Introduction to fusion energy, principle, development status and its application5. Biomass conversion, hydrogen production and sustainable energy system6. Risk of energy supply chain and stability7. Risk of energy generation, radiological hazardToday, vol.55, No.4 (2002) Physics and other risk and Safety concept
Question: International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable ScienceCan technology development make the sustainable society?－not for the short-term, but to support the development without sacrificing environment, economy and citizen life.Short-term technology, i.e. increased production may not provide ultimate solution for sustainability.What does technology have to do?- to provide long-term solution for sustainabilityBut, the researchers do not understand how their work would CHANGE the social system.- regardless of the source, energy itself is not sustainable.
Small quis A cell of yeast doubles in an hour. Each cell consumes １０－１０mol sugar tomake ethanol as follows; C6H１２O6 →２C2H5OH ＋ ２CO2 Initial condition： ①glucose 18 g in 100 cc water, 1 cell of yeast ②glucose 90 g in 100 cc water, 1 cell of yeastDescribe what happens. Yeasts cannot live in 12 % ethanol or more.（log2=0.301, where ２１０＝１０３）Solutions：１） cells n, time t(h), then number of yeast is n=2t consumption of glucose is expressed : Σ10-10n(t-1)=Σ10-102t =10-10(2t-1 )(mol) t-1 where glucose is 180g/moland ethanol is 46g/mol. In 100ccof water, maximum t=0allowable ethanol is 0.3mol equivalent, that comes from 0.15mol sugar. ( n(t-1)+n(t-2)+…+n2+n+1)(n-1) = nt-1 with initial condition ①, glucose0.1mol is completely exhausted at t=30 with ②, while sugar could be spent out 32.3hours, yeasts die at 30.7hour.
There are various ways to explain what happens.Equations are strong to calculate the exact amount, but sometimes inadequateto explain to others.In any case, Yeasts extinct after the exponential increase in number by 1) running out of foods : RESOURCE CONSTRAINT 2) killed by pollution mad by themselves : ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMIs Mankind free from this mechanism? After the exponential increase ofpopulation, either RESOURCE or ENVIRONMENT may kill us. Can we acquire unlimited clean energy resource? Does it assure SUSTAINABILITY?
Lessons to Learn０）respond within the time and resources….imagination helps.１）There could be several Solutions. ーvarious approaches ーequations and numbers are not perfect. Sometimes inadequate. －equations are only useful when implication is well understood. simple explanation works usually better.２）Energy, environment and resource problem has a very simple structure. to know and to understand is different. －analogy is a very strong tool. －but,excessive simplification (sometimes on purpose) is dangerous. （Even for yeast, mother nature is not such simple.）３）Real problem comes later.
Institute of Sustainable Science “sustainability” International Symposium on Global SustainabilityStable system：What comes in =what comes out energy energy lifeforms environment enthropy society structurematerials waste system
Sustainable system International Symposium on Global SustainabilityInstitute of Sustainable Science Energy and system technology Input balances with output In the steady state, they are stable energy energy lifeform environment entropy societymatter structure waste system When species is regarded as a system, stable population is a necessary criterion of sustainability.
Question・In a closed water system, algae, water flea, and fishes areliving.-Describe the mechanism that this system runs stably withoutany input/output of materials. fish energy energy Water flea bodily wastes algae lives environment society materials waste systemWater tank：system energy balance？ material balance？ what else？
energy energy lives environment heat society enthropy materials system waste (1) energy balance fish Water flea ・input：light ・output：heat bodily wastes algae (2) material recycle (3) these are not enough! Wat is needed? If not how the system cannot be stable?２．What is different from the case of yeast in the last class?３．What lesson do you have to learn?
Sustainable material balance Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability・Steady state “sustainable” solution in a closed eco-system Heat Entropy (1) Energy balance ・Energy input： light ・Energy output: heat and entropy Killifish Water flea Stable system : steady energy consumption CO2 O2 Algae energy balance Detritus entropy tubificids (2) Material balance ・material cycle: waste used as resources Material waste (resource) Energy and entropy exhaust required (3) system balance Carbon cycle ・stable population mechanism to control relationships
Sustainable species International Symposium on Global SustainabilityInstitute of Sustainable Science ENVIRONMENT Stable System Energy Energy Life Form （ Enthropy） Species Material Waste Input = Output (quantity balance)
Environment from system viewInternational Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science Previous concepts ① Environment is given favour ② Creatures either adapt or fail constraintsENVIRONMENT ③ better adaptation causes Adaptation Creature evolution disturbance ④ Creatures disturb environment ① Environment changes with Present concept creatures living there ② Combination of Reformed ENVIRONMENT reform Creature environment and creature make material cycle System ③If System is suitable for creature ENVIRONMENT’ and sustainable, it survives Material cycle System ④Sustainability is an accidental consequence
Growth in the local environment International Symposium on Global SustainabilityInstitute of Sustainable Science ENVIRONMENT Each reformed Energy Material cyclematerial nuclei growth saturation ① System has a process of the generation of nuclei, growth at the front, and saturation. ② Growth speed is described with Logistic functions. ③Stable state is controlled by the constraints of supply and environmental capacity
Logistic curve growth International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science Saturation occurs in all material cycle systems. ②growth ③stabilization ①generation①nucli generation and their growth environment and resource does not limit②glowth look like exponential③stabilized growth, resource and/or environment limits④in the stable state, material recycle established with other organisms sharing the same environment. (when it is successful to survive)⑤ genetic change is neutral and steady
evolution International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science ②generation of new species ①stable ③evolution (progress) of a species ④extinctionSame logistic process are applied all the species on theearth.This mechanism well explains apparent evolution of thespecies.
Problem: International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable ScienceWe need energy. Mainly to sustain our body and activity.－The energy drives the circulation of material in the environment.We humankind increased our activities with increased energy demand and supply.Energy technology is being developed and improving.But, the researchers do not understand how their work would CHANGE the social system.- we have to understand how energy technology change our world.
Institute of Sustainable Science Economy growth International Symposium on Global Sustainability Energy Sustainability Development Energy Demand Growth (GDP) PopulationEnergy supply causes population increase→energy demandEven a clean energy is not sustainable under the industrial revolution model.
Evaluation of Energy International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable ScienceFuture energy must respond to thedemand of the society.・All the R&D programs are evaluated from the aspect of cost effectiveness = “Value for Money”. －All the energy technologies are evaluated from the aspect of future social demand. － “Effect” can be measured in monetary terms. －However, market is not the only place where its value is estimated. － Energy supply affects environment, public and society through various paths other than market. (Externality) →Investment for research and development can be justified from the expected effect to the future society.
Population growth Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability Worlds populationAnticipated to be ca. 10 billion around 2050. Mostly urbanIncreases indeveloping countries andurban area. Developing countries present Logistic curve dy/dt = ky2(L-y) 2 present
Electricity and living standardInstitute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability • Living standard increase with power consumption up to ~4,000kWh • In developing ● Developed Countries ● Middle & South America countries, people ● Asia are considered to ● Africa ● Middle East seek living ● East Europe, Former Soviet standard corresponding to ~4,000kWh United Nations estimated from education, as the generation medical system and expected life, etc. capacity, it is ~1kW Yearly power consumption per man (kWh)
Future Energy Market Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability 1990 8.3BTOE 2100 28.5BTOE NA NIES/ASEAN NIES/ASEAN JAPAN EU RF RF East Europe NA East Europe EU China Other China JAPAN Other India India Current fusion studying countries will be minority in energy consumptionDeveloping(growing) countries will play a major role.
Resource exhausts? Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability ・What is R/P ratio? Exhausting year?R/P = resource (t)/consumption(t/y) year 164 85 67 41oil gas coal uranium change of R/P of oilEnergy resources and R/P ratio by BP2005
Never run out Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global SustainabilityIt is not a lack of materials ・R/P ratio shows the measure of demand to start exploration →people will not start resource search until it is stronglyneeded newly found resource may be sold after R/P years later. →R/P ratio controls the searching activity.・when resource price increases, expensive sources disregarded as “resource” becomes available.(distant, poor, expensive, unconventional..)・increased price discourages consumption and promote savings.・technology to find, produce, process and use improves always.・resources are substituted. “Stone age finished before stones run out” →nevertheless resource constraints and sometimes run out ….particularly “renewables” would.
16century, Easter IlandsMoai. （出典）Ｔｈｅ ＭＯＡＩ ＨＰ 20Lost with exhausted energy resource.
Civilization can disappear within 100 years By resource constraint. （出典）Ｔｈｅ ＭＯＡＩ ＨＰ 22
CO2 emission International Symposium on Global SustainabilityInstitute of Sustainable Science CO2 concentration in Air human emission year
Fossil consumption and ＣＯ2 International Symposium on Global SustainabilityInstitute of Sustainable Science Fossil consumption, 8 fossil revolution Industrial 4 Total energy billion ton 0 1000 1500 2000 380CO2 concentration 360 340 320 300 280 260 1000 1500 2000 year consumption of fossil fuel corresponds to the CO2 increase
Life Cycle Analyis of Energy International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science Life cycle CO2 emission Coal/CO2 sequestration LNG/CO2 sequestration Photovoltaic （Industrial) By Y.Uchiyama and K. Tokimatsu 300 270 Photovoltaic(home)Emission(g/kwh) Coal CO 200 200 178 Oil LNG Wind Fusion FissionCO2 100 Hydro 85 81 3.3.7 34.3 7 .3 12 40 16 6-12 31 46 4. 8 5. 7 0 24Fossil should be replaced by new “clean”energy technology
World Energy Source International Symposium on Global SustainabilityInstitute of Sustainable Science actual estimated Renewables Oil shock nuclear 108 Ton oil equivalent /year Oil shock Natural gas WW2 hydr oil o WW1 coalFossil will remain, but poorer in quality and quantity.Demand will continue to increase. → new energy source will be strongly needed.
Reduction of CO2 emission Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability Known technology is insufficient to achieve zero emission eventually. 18 16,080 16BAU BAU 14 CO2 emission ＧＴＣ 12,379Saving 12renewable 9,929 10 8,162 8 9,416Saving 8,889 6,372Renewable 6 6,306Advanced nuclear 5,853 4 5,063 2SavingRenewable 0Advanced nuclear 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100+hydrogen year
from public viewpoint International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science・Public, society and government requires research is worth － for investment, more benefit will be eventually returned. － damage on environment, threat for public safety be reduced .・Energy must be socially and economically feasible. －economical competitiveness －market eligibility －social acceptance, environmental friendliness… →technology will be compared with other energy sources, funding must compete with other research programs. →researchers must show the outcome will respond social requirements.
World Energy Investment International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science 2001-2030 Total investment: 16 trillion dollars 46% Power E&D 72% generation Electricity Refining 13% 54% T&D Other 15% 60% Oil 19% E&D 55% Gas 19% Coal 2% 88% Mining LNG Chain 8% T&D and 37% Storage 12% Shipping and ports Electricity investment will dominates. In each sub-sector, production accounts for the majority of investment – except for electricityElectricity is made by technology. Fuel is supplied by resource Figure by J. Sheffield
Energy Investment by Region International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science Figure by J. Sheffield cumulative investment (billion dollars) 4,000 3,500 2001-2030 20 share in global investment (%) 3,000 2,500 15 2,000 1,500 10 1,000 5 500 0 0 OECDChina Other Asia Russia OECD India Brazil North OECD Africa MiddlePacific Other America Europe Other Latin transition East America economies Almost half of energy investment requirements of $16 trillion will be needed in developing countries 20th century 21st centuryDeveloped countries research Developed countries researchand deploy new technology Developing country use. R&D investment 0.27%GDP in Thai, Japan 3%, by Thai report.
Energy Options for Sustainability Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability・Cost of technology decreases・Cost of resources increases Resource・All energy technology have constraint both features technology fossil・External cost sometimes price plays major role・Various constraints may affect・Energy may not be selected by market. -government Sum of production -social option Technical improvement
Technology and resource Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability 60 50 コ ス ト （ 1997年価格 ￠/kWh 40 ） 30 20 BAU 新エ ネ 促進 10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 年 Price of fossil energy Cost of PVCost of the resource always Cost of technology alwaysincreases because of decreases due to theconsumption. improvement
Energy for sustainability International Symposium on Global Sustainability Institute of Sustainable ScienceFuture energy must respond to thedemand of the society.・clean.・ abundant.・ economical. －However, market is not the only place where its value is estimated. － Energy supply affects environment, public and society through various paths other than market. (Externality) － Demand does not guarantee the sales. Supply chain constraint →Limitation →glow speed
Sustainability question Institute of Sustainable Science International Symposium on Global Sustainability Developers and users are different by area and generation.Innovative technology provides clean energy to respond demands. ーmay we satisfy the demands if energy is clean? ーdoesn’t clean energy jeopardize sustainability?Impacts of the energy technology can be analyzed －does it analyze all the risks? ー is transition (growth) always good?…good index for “sustainability” yet to find.