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The Next Moore's Law: Netness v6x

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The Next Moore's Law: Netness - describes the growing and changing power of connectivity - and why connectivity is replacing Moore's Law as the most important source of opportunity. It suggests that …

The Next Moore's Law: Netness - describes the growing and changing power of connectivity - and why connectivity is replacing Moore's Law as the most important source of opportunity. It suggests that "everything wants to be connected" because the more things are connected (can communicate) the better things work. It describes connectivity as evolving to become fields rather than networks. Original date of presentation: June, 2009.

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  • 1. MOORE’S LAW the next Sheldon Renan vision (+) strategy Twitter @srenan
  • 2. WHY EVERYTHING WANTS TO BE CONNECTED netness
  • 3. this all started one day in 1989 when I tried to go out of business but the next morning THE PHONE RANG
  • 4. this all started one day in 1989 when I tried to go out of business but the next morning THE PHONE RANG somebody wanted an interactive version of Murder She Wrote
  • 5. this all started one day in 1989 when I tried to go out of business but the next morning THE PHONE RANG somebody wanted an interactive version of Murder She Wrote and somehow… within a short time I was learning Moore’s Law then writing for XEROX PARC
  • 6. this all started one day in 1989 when I tried to go out of business but the next morning THE PHONE RANG somebody wanted an interactive version of Murder She Wrote and somehow… within a short time I was learning Moore’s Law then writing for XEROX PARC THEN ONE DAY I WAS DOING A WHITEPAPER FOR SOMEBODY ON
  • 7. … interoperability.
  • 8. … interoperability. Why interoperability (I asked)? Because communications… getting different things to work together… consumed most of the time and money in creating products and systems.
  • 9. NOTE TO SELF: making it easier for things to work together is the fastest way to lower the cost of anything ? anything that is connected will always have more opportunity than anything this is not connected. —1994
  • 10. NOTE TO SELF: Anything that is connected always has more opportunity than anything that isn’t. Making it easy for things to work together is the fastest way to lower the cost of anything? —1994
  • 11. John Seely Brown tells me: if two machines do roughly the same thing (LIKE COPYING) if one machine (COPY MACHINE) is in the world of atoms if one machine ( VIRTUAL COPY MACHINE) is in the world of bits if both has the same user interface (big green button), look and feel if machine in world of atoms is connected with machine in the world of bits EACH MACHINE HAS MORE opportunity than if it is a standalone machine — jsb’s law, 1997
  • 12. Something deep was changing I was aware of a shift the internet? the net? what? jsb kept talking about the fabric, an emerging fabric of rich services surrounding and interconnecting communities
  • 13. I began to recognize it was not the internet it was not the net work it was net ness that was making the difference between our past and our future
  • 14. Moore’s Law observes….
  • 15. the price and performance available from semi-conductor technology will double every 24 months
  • 16. it began as conversations between Gordon Moore & Carver Mead as an article in electronics magazine 1965 as marketing to promote future use of chips in consumer products
  • 17. Carver Mead named it Dr. Moore’s Law in 1971 became metronome that set the pace for the global technology ecosystem most important source of new opportunity.
  • 18. foundation of digital everything enabler of global communications & technology influence that extends far beyond technology
  • 19. I asked Gordon Moore, “What is it people don’t understand?” He answered, “What people don’t understand is that the smaller things get the faster and cheaper and better they always work.”
  • 20. Moore’s Law vs. Netness
  • 21. EVERY DAY it becomes less important to have faster computer chips enabled by Moore’s Law
  • 22. EVERY DAY it becomes more important / productive to be able to connect, communicate, and collaborate anywhere with anything on an ad hoc basis
  • 23. what is netness?
  • 24. in which connectivity is increasingly ubiquitous , lives are increasingly entangled. two worlds < the world of atoms and the world of bits > become one. IS AN EMERGING STATE OF BEING netness
  • 25. Increasingly… connectivity now becomes the most important driver of new opportunity the critical creator of new value
  • 26. not networks not the Internet but connectivity itself
  • 27. The more things are connected, the better things work.
  • 28. The more things are connected, the better things work the smarter things are
  • 29. The more things are connected, the better things work the smarter they are the safer things are
  • 30. The more things you connect, the better things work the smarter they are the safer they are the more opportunity is created for sharing resources and collaborating
  • 31. We all know… more things, people and places are becoming connected every day
  • 32. 5 vectors of growth for connectivity
  • 33. 1. The number of networks
  • 34. 2. The number of connectable points
  • 35. 3. The number of connected devices
  • 36. 4. The number of connected locations
  • 37. 5. The ubiquity, frequency & intimacy of connections
  • 38. How is connectivity changing?
  • 39. As connectivity becomes ubiquitous systems (networks) become fields.
  • 40. Networks and lives become entangled.
  • 41. A new state of connectivity is emerging We used to talk about 3 states of connectivity : 1 st Loosely connected 2 nd Closely connected 3 rd Embedded
  • 42. Now a 4 th state of connectivity is emerging: 1st Loosely connected 2 nd Closely connected 3 rd Embedded 4 th Entangled
  • 43. When connectivity becomes ubiquitous < and things, people, places are entangled >
  • 44. Systems (networks) become fields …
  • 45. Two worlds the world of atoms the world of bits become one
  • 46. The more things, people, places, particles and bits become connected < entangled > the better things work… the safer things are.
  • 47. What creates the value ? Connectivity has many mechanisms and effects.
  • 48. Metcalfe’s Law < value created by networks > Reed’s Law < opportunity created by networks > Externalities Effect < opportunity created by networks > summation < more data from more points of view > netness < benefits from more ubiquitous connectivity >
  • 49. Netness is not new. It is an iteration and extension of earlier recognitions. Euler & the Bridges of Konigsberg, Erdos & Renyi, Teilhard de Chardin, Solomonoff, Rapport & Small Worlds , Travers & Milgram, Derek J de Solla Price, Douglas Engelbart, Vint Cerf, Robert Kahn & The Internet , Metcalfe & Gilder, David Reed , Albert-Laszlo Barabasi & Scale Free Networks , Mark Newman, Duncan Watts, JSB, Mark Weiser & Ubicomp, Timothy Bernes-Lee & The World Wide Web, Manuel Castells , Bernardo Huberman , David Weinberger , Yochai Benkler, Usman Haque & Pachube and the list goes on…
  • 50. We are not talking about connecting more things over networks, We are not talking about connecting more networks
  • 51. We are talking about connecting everything
  • 52. individual world What we consider today to be interconnected networks
  • 53. individual world planet particle … is just the beginning
  • 54. connect everything , at every level particle planet
  • 55. Limit connectivity You limit opportunity + decrease safety
  • 56. Connect the unconnected you increase opportunity, safety & success
  • 57. Example
  • 58. AN EIGHTY YEAR OLD MAN
  • 59. WHO LIVES BY HIM SELF
  • 60. AN EIGHTY YEAR OLD MAN TAKES A S H O W E R
  • 61. AN EIGHTY YEAR OLD MAN TAKES A S H O W E R WHEN HE FALLS INTO THE TUB
  • 62. What if
  • 63. WHEN HE FELL INTO THE TUB KNOWS
  • 64. THAT THE MAN IS FALL ING WHEN HE FELL INTO THE TUB KNOWS
  • 65. THAT HE HAS OSTEO PORO SIS WHEN HE FELL INTO THE TUB KNOWS
  • 66. THAT THE MAN IS FALL ING THE TUB KNOWS AND THEN PROCEEDED TO CONTACT
  • 67. THAT THE MAN IS FALL ING THE TUB KNOWS AND THEN PROCEEDED TO CONTACT – 911 – Daughter – Remote care-taker – Building manager
  • 68. THAT THE MAN IS FALL ING THE BATHTUB KNOWS AND THEN PROCEEDED TO
  • 69. THAT THE MAN IS FALL ING THE BATHTUB KNOWS REARRANGE ITS MOLECULES
  • 70. HITS THE SO TUB WHEN HE THE BATHTUB KNOWS REARRANGE ITS MOLECULES
  • 71. HITS THE SO TUB WHEN HE THE TUB CATCHES HIM
  • 72. connectivity fields will enable emergence of “ virtuous service fabrics ” individual world
  • 73. connectivity fields will enable emergence of “ virtuous service fabrics ” programmed to mitigate threats and optimize outcomes for individuals individual world
  • 74. “ virtuous service fabrics ” will evolve from current experiments with individual world
  • 75. “ virtuous service fabrics ” will evolve from current experiments with individual world sensor nets
  • 76. “ virtuous service fabrics ” will evolve from current experiments with sensor nets & individual world pervasive computing
  • 77. “ virtuous service fabrics ” will evolve from current experiments with sensor nets & pervasive computing for healthcare individual world
  • 78. early stage virtuous service fabrics are already operating invisibly in a surprising number of automobiles today.
  • 79. Where can we use netness today ?
  • 80. netness is a compass you can use to plan products , business models & governance
  • 81. what is the most urgent reason for recognizing, understanding and optimizing netness?
  • 82. Confluencing crises of population growth, climate change & insufficient resources & reserves
  • 83. Confluencing crises of population growth, climate change & insufficient resources are the most urgent reason to recognize, optimize and utilize netness. We must radically iimprove our abilities to cooperate and collaborate with maximum efficiency (minimum waste.) This is an absolute requirement to assure optimal survival of our communities and species .
  • 84. How can we accelerate recognition and optimization of netness?
  • 85. It’s time to begin thinking of a post network age where networks “get out of the way” and connectivity reigns.
  • 86. - make connectivity visible. - validate the value of scaling up connectedness. - specify, implement and spread “The Field”. < move from networks to connectivity fields > - create new models for governance and business - build on connectivity instead of owning and selling it. - create a taxonomy of connectivity.
  • 87. implicit in Teilhard de Chardin’s The Phenomenon of Man Connectivity = Life
  • 88. Implicit in Teilhard de Chardin’s The Phenomenon of Man Connectivity = Life Isolation = Death
  • 89. That is why we can say WHY EVERYTHING WANTS TO BE CONNECTED
  • 90. This is why we can say WHY EVERYTHING WANTS TO BE CONNECTED
  • 91. NIELS BOHR (quoted by ANTON ZEILINGER) “There are two types of truths: simple truths & deep truths. Simple truth is truth where the opposite is not true. Deep truth is truth where the opposite is also true. ”   DALAI LAMA “There’s something to that.”
  • 92. final thoughts
  • 93. There are risks to increasing connectivity. It can be argued that netness increases vulnerability as well as value and virtue. Given the mortal stakes before us, the benefits far outweigh the risks.  
  • 94. Thank you see you on www.netness.net soon. Sheldon Renan [email_address]
  • 95. Designed by Bram Pitoyo [email_address]

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