The Demographic transition model Adam and William (FEHS Geog Students 2009-11)
<ul><li>A model to show the change in population, birth and death rates over time. In five stages; showing the trend between the birth rate, death rate, and population. </li></ul><ul><li>Countries are in different stages of demographic change and were in different stages in the past </li></ul>What is the demographic transition model?
Stage 1 Total population In stage 1, Death rates and birth rates are high. The population stays steady. This part of the model is normally found in tribal groups in areas such as the Amazon rainforest. This is also the stage that the UK was before the year 1780.
Stage 2 Total population In stage 2, the birth rate stays high, but the death rate falls, so the population increases. This is typical of Sub-Saharan countries and the Middle east, but some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have begun to move into stage 3. Other countries in this stage include Bhutan and Ethiopia. This is a ‘natural increase’.
Stage 3 Total population In stage 3, the death rate continues to fall. The birth rate starts to decline. The population continues to increase, although less quickly than in stage 2. Countries such as Kenya, El Salvador and Algeria are in this stage.
Stage 4 Total population In stage 4, the birth rates and death rates are both low and about the same. The total population starts to become stable. The UK is in this stage.
Stage 5 Stage 5 is when the birth rate decreases more (so it is less than the death rate; this is called sub-replacement fertility). The population decreases. Total population