Hybrid PV and wind power project Analysis at AIT

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Hybrid PV and wind power project Analysis at AIT

  1. 1. HYBRID PV &WIND POWER PROJECT ANALYSIS
  2. 2. INTRODUCTION • Renewable energy is alternate fuel Examples of hybrid power systems available to meet the increasing include demand. Wind generation • Solar, wind, and tidal can be combined with diesel generation classified as intermittent sources. • Renewable energy systems based Photovoltaic generation on intermittent sources exhibit strong combined with battery short-term and seasonal variations in storage or diesel generation their energy outputs • Hybrid power systems is the possible Fuel cell generation solution in reducing the intermittent combined with micro sources. turbine generation. • The use of hybrid energy systems can optimize the power supply and Wind Turbine combined the cost is incur only one time. with Solar PV System
  3. 3. INTRODUCTION  The project is based on combining photovoltaic and wind power.  Hybrid Energy System possess an array of solar panels, wind generators, a backup storage and battery system and a power converter.  The energy then converted to usable energy by using inverter. Just like solar and wind power plants the hybrid power plants can also be off grid and on grid therefore increasing the diversity of this energy technology.
  4. 4. OVERVIEW OF HYBRID PV-WIND POWER GENERATION Photovoltaic Power Generation
  5. 5. PV Industry & Market in Thailand  Thai government has set national strategic policies on energy to focus more on power generation from renewable energy.  Solar energy industry expects to generate 250 megawatts of power from solar energy by the year 2011 to meet the increasing demand for energy.  The 250 MWp of PV will consist of the following sectors  Solar modules and components industry will probably leap to over Thai Baht 40,000 million .
  6. 6. PV Industry & Market in Thailand Project “Feasibility Study of the Solar Cell Production Industry in Thailand” assigned by the ministry of Thailand as well as issues for the future will also be presented and discussed. Examples of PV systems are as follows:  1) PV Battery Charging Systems, 1.5 MWp;  2) PV Water Pumping Systems, 1 MWp;  3) PV Telecommunication Systems, 1.2 MWp;  4) PV Hybrid Systems and PV Minigrid Systems;  5) Solar Home Systems, 9.6 MWp;  6) Solar Street Light Systems and Traffic signals;  7) PV Grid-Connected Roof TOP, 0.50 MWp.
  7. 7. Photovoltaic Type A) Crystalline solar cells By far, the most prevalent bulk material for solar cells is crystalline silicon, also known as "solar grade silicon". Bulk silicon is separated into multiple categories according to crystalline and crystal size in the resulting ingot, ribbon, or wafer. I. Mono-crystalline silicon (c-Si I. Poly- or multi-crystalline silicon (poly-Si or mc-Si)
  8. 8. Photovoltaic Type B) Thin film solar cells Silicon thin-film cells are mainly deposited by chemical vapor deposition (typically, plasma- enhanced (PE-CVD)) from silane gas and hydrogen gas. Depending on the deposition parameters, this can yield:  Amorphous silicon (a-Si or a-Si:H)  Proto-crystalline silicon or  Nano-crystalline silicon (nc-Si or nc-Si:H), also called microcrystalline silicon. It has been found that proto-crystalline silicon with a low volume fraction of Nano- crystalline silicon is optimal for high open circuit voltage. Recently, solutions to overcome the limitations of thin-film crystalline silicon have been developed.
  9. 9. OVERVIEW OF HYBRID PV- WIND POWER GENERATION Wind Power Generation
  10. 10. Wind Power Generation Types A wind energy system transforms the kinetic energy of the wind into mechanical or electrical energy that can be harnessed for practical use. Mechanical energy is most commonly used for pumping water in rural or remote locations. mechanical wind pumper – but it can also be used for many other purposes (grinding grain, sawing, pushing a sailboat, etc.). There are two basic designs of wind electric turbines: vertical-axis, or "egg-beater" style, and horizontal-axis (propeller-style) machines. Horizontal-axis wind turbines are most common today, constituting nearly all of the "utility-scale" (100 kilowatts, kW, capacity and larger) turbines in the global market.
  11. 11. Turbine Sub-systems  Wind turbine sub-system  A rotor, or blades, which convert the wind's energy into rotational shaft energy;  A nacelle (enclosure) containing a drive train, usually including a gearbox and a generator (however, some turbines do not require a gearbox);  A tower, to support the rotor and drive train; and  Electronic equipment such as controls, electrical cables, ground support equipment, and interconnection equipment. 1981 1985 1990 1996 1999 2000 Rotor (Meters) 10 17 27 40 50 71 Rating (KW) 25 100 225 550 750 1,650 Annual MWh 45 220 550 1,480 2,200 5,600  The electricity generated by a utility-scale wind turbine is normally collected and fed into utility power lines, where it is mixed with electricity from other power plants and delivered to utility customers.
  12. 12. Wind Turbine Generation  The output of a wind turbine depends on the turbine's size and the wind's speed through the rotor.  Wind turbines being manufactured now have power ratings ranging from 250 watts to 5 megawatts (MW).  Most manufacturers of utility-scale turbines offer machines in the 700-kW to 2.5-MW range. Ten 700- kW units would make a 7-MW wind plant, while 10 2.5-MW machines would make a 25-MW facility.  In the future, machines of larger size will be available, although they will probably be installed offshore, where larger transportation and construction equipment can be used.
  13. 13. Wind Power Plant  The most economical application of wind electric turbines is in groups of large machines (660 kW and up), called "wind power plants" or "wind farms."  Wind plants can range in size from a few megawatts to hundreds of megawatts in capacity.  Wind power plants are "modular," which means they consist of small individual modules (the turbines) and can easily be made larger or smaller as needed  A site where average wind speed is 20 miles/hr might generate twice as much power as a site where average wind speed is only 15 miles/hr.  Always remember that higher is better: ideally, your turbine should be thirty feet above any obstacles, with at least 300 feet of clear area around it.  Wind consistency  Noise.  Safety.  Environmental impact.  Zoning.  Aesthetics.
  14. 14. Hybrid Photovoltaic-Wind Power Generation  Hybrid system incorporates a combination of several renewable energy sources such as PV and wind energy.  Hybrid energy systems often yield greater economic and environmental returns than wind, solar, geothermal stand-alone systems by themselves.  Modeling of the hybrid PV/wind system components  Modelization is an essential step before any phase of optimal sizing. Various modeling techniques are developed to model HPWS components in previous studies.  For a hybrid PV/wind system with a storage battery, as shown below, three principal subsystems are included, the PV generator, the wind turbine and the battery storage. A methodology for modeling HPWS components is described below.
  15. 15. Modeling of the hybrid PV/wind system components
  16. 16. Modeling of the hybrid PV/wind system components
  17. 17. Modeling of the hybrid PV/wind system components
  18. 18. OVERVIEW OF AIT’S ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND BASELINE CONDITION FOR ADOPTING HYBRID PV-WIND POWER GENERATION
  19. 19. Overview of AIT’s Electricity Demand  Electricity demand at AIT during 2005-2009 is shown below. The figure reveals that, in 2009, electricity consumption at AIT is approximately 12.276 GWh/year.  Of this amount, it was found that approximately Administration 7% 24% of total electricity demand is used by the Other 12% Academic Academic Building. Building 24% Commercail 15% Chiller 23% Residentail 19%
  20. 20. Overview of AIT’s Electricity Demand  Among the Academic Building, it is estimated that about 45% is used by School of Development, Environment and Natural Resources (SERD). Energy Buildings of Energy Field of Study consume approximately 8% of total electricity used by SERD. Aqua Energy South 10% 8% Academic Daily electricity consumption at Energy Buildings is 50% calculated based on the assumption that electricity AFE 9% requirement is constant through the year. PPT 15% Daily Electricity Consumption (kWh) = Annual Electricity Consumption (kWh) 365 Biotech 8% Daily electricity consumption at Energy Building Daily Electricity Consumption (kWh) = 12.276 x 106 x 0.24 x 0.45 x 0.08 kWh 365 =290.60 kWh
  21. 21. Condition for Adopting Hybrid PV-Wind Power Generation  The design of hybrid PV-wind power generation under this study is solely based on the minimization cost Electricity generation cost from photovoltaic and wind power generation is approximately 2.2 baht/kWh and 11.18 baht/kWh. Based on the cost minimization criteria, the design of hybrid PV-wind power generation should be predominated by wind power generation as long as it is allowed under the current constraints.
  22. 22. Calculation of Installed Hybrid PV and Wind Power Capacity Photovoltaic Power Generation  Solar radiation depends on a number of factors such as (i) Number of the days in the year (ii) location of the photovoltaic plants (iii) Tilt angle of the photovoltaic panel  Assumption for the Calculation:  The yearly average daily solar radiation on the surface is assumed at 4 kWh/m 2- day and assumed to be constant throughout the year.  The peak sun condition is 1 kW/m2.  Therefore, the equivalent time in hours at peak sun is 4 hours/day.  There is no inverter loss in converting from DC to AC.  The photovoltaic capacity is known from the peak panel (W peak), which is defined from the following formula:   Peak Panel (KWpeak) = Daily Electricity Consumption (kWh) .  Equivalent Time of Receiving Radiation (h) 
  23. 23. Calculation of Installed Hybrid PV and Wind Power Capacity Wind Power Generation  The potential wind power is proportional to (i) the area of windmill being swept by the wind, (ii) the cube of the wind speed, and (iii)the air density, which varies with altitude.  The actual power that can be generated from the wind mill depends on (i) type of machine and rotor used, (ii) the sophistication of blade design, (iii)friction losses, and (iv)the losses in the pump or other equipment connected to the wind machine .  In addition, there are also physical limits to the amount of power that can be extracted  realistically from the wind.  Any windmill can only possibly extract a maximum of 59.3% of the power from the wind (this is  known as the Betz Limit). 
  24. 24. Calculation of Installed Hybrid PV and Wind Power Capacity Wind Power Generation  In addition, the wind generator’s annual energy production is never as much as its nameplate rating multiplied by the total hours in a year.  The ratio of actual productivity in a year to this theoretical maximum is called the capacity factor. A well-site wind generator will have a capacity factor of as much as 35%. This compares to typical capacity factors of 90% for nuclear plants, 70% for coal plants, and 30% for oil plants.  The appropriate sizes of wind turbine for hybrid configuration range between 100-250 kW. Therefore, under this study, the size of each wind turbine will fall under such the range.  To facilitate the evaluation under this study, the following assumption is provided.  Wind potential (wind speed) taking into account the loss is sufficient to generate the wind power as nameplate rating throughout the year. 1. Capacity factor is 35%. 2. There is no inverter loss in converting from DC to AC.  Electricity generated from wind turbine is therefore calculated from the following formula:  Daily Electricity Generation (kWh) = Wind Turbine Capacity (kW) x Capacity Factor x 24 (h)
  25. 25. Calculation of Installed Hybrid PV and Wind Power Capacity Hybrid Photovoltaic-Wind Power Generation  Design of hybrid PV-wind power generation should be predominated by the available wind power generation to meet the minimization cost objective. In order to calculate the optimal value of hybrid configuration, the following assumption is defined:  Selected wind turbine is small type and the size of each wind turbine is 10 kW.  Maximum allowable number of wind turbine to be installed at Energy Building’s premise is 3 units,  As there will be no purchase of electricity from grid after operation of project, therefore, the rest of electricity demand at Energy Buildings are generated from photovoltaic power generation.  Electricity demand at Energy Buildings is constant through the project lifetime (290.60 kWh).  Based on the above assumption, daily electricity generated from the wind mill farm can be calculated as follows:  Daily Electricity Generated from Wind Turbine Capacity Hours / Wind Turbine (kWh) Capacity (kW) Factor Day 1 Unit 3 Units 10 0.35 24 84 252
  26. 26. Calculation of Installed Hybrid PV and Wind Power Capacity Hybrid Photovoltaic-Wind Power Generation  The rest of electricity demand to be supplied from photovoltaic power generation is 38.60 kWh (290.60 – 252). Therefore, the peak panel of photovoltaic can be calculated as follows:  Daily Electricity Generated from PV (kWh) Equivalent Time of Receiving Radiation (Hours) Peak Panel (kWpeak) 38.60 4 9.65  From the above table, in ball park figure, the peak panel that would be sufficient to generate electricity demand for the remaining consumption of Energy Building is 10 kWpeak.
  27. 27. Cost of Installation & Operation of Hybrid PV-wind Power
  28. 28. Cost of Installation & Operation of Hybrid PV-wind Power
  29. 29. Economic Evaluation Principle Benefits and cost shall be measured in terms of their real economic value, which is known as “Shadow Prices”. Does not include direct transfer payment, which are Customs duties, income taxes, debt service and credits. Goods and services that are marketed internationally - CIF price of he product is used for the economic evaluation. Goods and Service that are marketed locally -assumes that the shadow value of unskilled labor is the same amount of its market value. Value of exchange rate - assumes that the official exchange rate is as same as the shadow exchange rate
  30. 30. Investment Cost Operating & Maintenance cost Electricity generated from the hybrid Project PV-wind power generation Benefit = 290.60 kWh/day = 106,069 kWh/year
  31. 31. Economic Evaluation Table  Economic Net Present Value (ENPV) at the discount rate of 1.29% .
  32. 32. Economic Evaluation Table Economic Net Present Value (ENPV) = -810,790 THB. This project is not economically attractive to invest.
  33. 33. Annualized Cost of Electricity Generation from Hybrid PV-Wind Investment Cost of Each Component (THB) Total (P/F, 1.29%, Net Present Year Investment Cost Wind n) Value (THB) PV Module Inverter Battery Bank (THB) Generator 0 -680,000 -1,118,835 -1,021,545 -170,258 -2,990,638 1.0000 -2,990,638 5 -170,258 -170,258 0.9379 -159,688 10 -1,021,545 -170,258 -1,191,803 0.8797 -1,048,428 15 -170,258 -170,258 0.8251 -140,478 20 -1,021,545 -170,258 -1,191,803 0.7739 -922,301 25 486,450 486,450 0.7258 353,081 Total Net Present Value PW (1.29%) -4,908,452
  34. 34. Annualized Cost of Electricity Generation from Hybrid PV-Wind  Annualized capital cost is 4,908,452 x (A/P, 1.29%, 25) = 230,949 THB   Annualized O&M Cost is 22,858 THB   Therefore, annualized capital and O&M cost of electricity generation is  230,949 THB + 22,858 THB = 253,807 THB   Therefore cost of electricity generation from the hybrid PV-wind is  253,807 THB = 2.39 THB / kWh  106,069 kWh
  35. 35. Financial Evaluation Principle The benefits and cost shall be measured in terms of their actual values, which take into account inflation rate. Also take into account the followings: Direct transfer payment such as income tax, Customs duties Debt service and other external financial sources such as loan
  36. 36. Investment cost for Financial Evaluation Investment cost and O&M cost must be taken into account the inflation rate of 4.9% annually. Electricity cost is in actual cost – no adjustment on inflation for financial evaluation
  37. 37. Project Benefits  Related adjustment is only price escalation of 10% every five years. Depreciation, Debt Service, & Income Taxes Depreciation: Calculation of depreciation is in accordance with the MACRS deduction rate. Debt Service: Calculation of debt service is in accordance with the market interest rate. Income Taxes: Calculation of income tax is based on 30% of taxable income
  38. 38. Financial Evaluation Table Baseline conditions for the financial evaluation  Investment is fully borne by AIT’s budget and there is no loan for the baseline scenario.  There is no other external support to execute the investment.  MARR is 10% and market interest rate is 6.25%.
  39. 39. Financial Evaluation Table
  40. 40. Financial Evaluation Table
  41. 41. Financial Evaluation Table
  42. 42. Financial Evaluation Table The Financial Net Present Value (FNPV) is -2,360,301 THB. Similar to economic evaluation, this project is not financially attractive to invest according to the baseline condition.
  43. 43. Sensitivity Analysis of Financial Evaluation Scope of sensitivity analysis Revenue from Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Revolving Fund Program for Energy Conservation and Alternative Energy Percentage of Loan to Total Investment Other market interest rate
  44. 44. Sensitivity Analysis of Financial Evaluation Revenue from clean Development Mechanism (CPM) Carbon CO2 CDM Revenue Emission Emission Annual Factor from Mitigation Power Power Grid from Unit Cost Total Total Generatio Generation Project ($/tons Revenue Revenue n (kWh) (tons (tons CO2) ($) (THB) CO2/MWh) CO2/Year) 106,069 0.504 53.46 7 374.21 12,136 Assumption: Crediting period 21 years No cost incurred in implementing CDM project
  45. 45. Sensitivity Analysis of Financial Evaluation Revolving Fund Program for Energy Conservation and Alternative Energy Implemented by the Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE). The maximum interest rate (as administration and risk fee) is 4% The maximum ceiling of the loan is 50 million Baht per project. Analysis includes the various rates of market interest at no interest rate, 2%, and 4% interest rate.
  46. 46. Sensitivity Analysis of Financial Evaluation Percentage of Loan to Total Investment As MIRR is higher than the market interest rate, the loan option is feasible to provide the better financial net present value. Sensitivity analysis also includes the different portion of loan to the total investment cost (0-100%).
  47. 47. Financial Net Present Value Baseline Condition (FNPV) Positive FNPV
  48. 48. Sensitivity Analysis of Financial Evaluation Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) Financial Internal Rate of Return, FIRR % Category CDM Requirement Amount of Loan (% of Total Investment Cost) 90% 100% Without CDM Revenue N/A 28.00% Market Interest Rate, 6.25% With CDM Revenue N/A 25.93% Revolving Fund Program, Without CDM Revenue N/A 20.10% 4% With CDM Revenue N/A 18.50% Without CDM Revenue N/A 14.92% Market Interest Rate, 2% With CDM Revenue N/A 13.43% Without CDM Revenue 17.79% 7.13% No Interest With CDM Revenue 13.28% 4.78%
  49. 49. Sensitivity Analysis of Financial Evaluation Break-even Point of the Percentage of Loan to Total Investment
  50. 50. Sensitivity Analysis of Financial Evaluation Break-even Percentage of Loan
  51. 51. Conclusions  Hybrid photovoltaic-wind power generation is potential renewable energy can be used to generate electricity, which helps to reduce emission of greenhouse gases generated from the use of fossil fuels. Due to the high investment especially the solar energy, this project is not economically and financially attractive as ENPV and FNPV over the lifetime of the project (25 years) is negative at the baseline condition due to.  The use of solar energy is appropriate for remote area, to which grid network is not accessible.  cost of constructing the grid network could be considered as additional benefits of the investment project.  Under this project, AIT has already accessed to the grid.  cost of avoiding constructing grid connection cannot be included in the analysis.
  52. 52. Conclusions  As this project is designed based on the fact that electricity is sufficient electricity only for electricity demand at energy building. Therefore, none of the generated electricity is sold to the grid.  Cannot receive extra money from the government for those who sells electricity generated from renewable energy to the grid. If such the extra money is included in the evaluation, the net present value of this investment will be much improved. Although other factors such as revenue from CDM project, the change of market interest rate, and percentage of loan to total investment are added to the financial evaluation, most of the financial net present value is still negative. Only when the loan at more than 90% of total investment cost (for both without CDM and with CDM case), the financial net present value is positive.
  53. 53. References  The Solar Guide, http://www.thesolarguide.com  American Wind Energy Association, http://www.awea.org/faq/wwt_basics.html  Wind turbin type, http://www.freebase.com/view/base/windenergy/views/ wind_turbines  Growth of Photovoltaic Industry and Market in Thailand, Kruangam, Pavan Siamchai, Patama Wongthoythong and Wandee Khunchornyakong, http://www.pvresources.com/en/hybrid.php  D. Diaf, M. Belhamel, M. Haddadi and A. Louche, A methodology for optimal sizing of autonomous hybrid PV/wind system, Energy Policy, Volume 35, Issue 11, November 2007, Pages 5708-5718, http://www.esrgroups.org/journal/jes/papers/4_3_7.pdf  Carbon Market Weekly Update, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (TGO), http://www.tgo.or.th/english/index.php?option=com_content&task=ca tegory&sectionid=6&id=17&Itemid=48

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