2011 cheltenham festival – race profiles

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http://www.betting-school.com Race profiling does not attempt to assess the horses instead it looks at the previous winners of a race and uses the characteristics of the winners to build a profile of the most likely winner. These profiles can have many factors depending on the significance attached to each and the amount of data that is available to the profiler. This profile is then used to find a horse whose profile most closely matches the profile of previous winners.

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2011 cheltenham festival – race profiles

  1. 1. 2011 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL – RACE PROFILESRace ProfilingThere are many different ways of looking at horse races with the most common beingform based, that is, looking at each horse in the race and comparing it with all the otherstaking into account the race conditions.Another way of approaching a race is to use a technique called race profiling.Race profiling does not attempt to assess the horses instead it looks at the previouswinners of a race and uses the characteristics of the winners to build a profile of themost likely winner. These profiles can have many factors depending on the significanceattached to each and the amount of data that is available to the profiler. This profile isthen used to find a horse whose profile most closely matches the profile of previouswinners.The factors used may include such things as weight carried, number of previous runs,number of days since last run and age. This method does not work for all races as a lot of
  2. 2. races are won by a wide range of horses without favouring a specific type, however,many races, particularly the more valuable races, are won regularly by horses that showa specific set of qualities.The Cheltenham Festival is the pinnacle of the National Hunt season in the UK. Thefestival is held over four days, Tuesday to Friday, in March, and attracts top qualitynational hunt horses for top quality races. There is a feature race every day, with theChampion Hurdle on the Tuesday, the Queen Mother Champion Chase on theWednesday, the Ladbrokes World Hurdle on the Thursday and the Gold Cup on theFriday.The following are the notable characteristics for each race due to be run at this year’sfestival and the plans are to apply these, once the final line ups have been determined, toprovide a short list of likely contenders which will be detailed in a daily post in the ClubTips section of the members area.Day 1 – Tuesday 15th MarchRace 1 – 13:30 Stan James Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)Positives are horses trained in Ireland who have provided 11 winners from the last 21years. However in recent years there has seen a switch towards hurdling talent beingtrained in Britain with the likes of Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Phillip Hobbsdoing well. Eight of the last 10 winners of the race had won last time out and also worthnoting is that 10/10 had won at least 50 per cent of their hurdle starts. 10 of the last 11winners ran in the previous 45 days. The favourites have a poor recent record with theprevious six finishing 0-5-3-2-5-3.Race 2 – 14:05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Grade 1)Only one favourite has obliged in the past ten years, but no horse has started bigger than9-1 in that same period and it pays to focus on those at the head of the market inparticular the 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the betting. Eight of the last 10 winners were agedbetween five and seven. Previously top rated hurdlers have also performed well.Race 3 – 14:40 Festival Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
  3. 3. Despite being a fiercely competitive handicap, horses at the top end of the betting havedone well in this race in recent years. Eight of the last 11 winners have won at singlefigure odds so positives are horses in the first 4 in the betting although only twofavourites have won since 1977. The last 11 winners carried less than 11 stone and nohorse aged 11+ has been placed since 1997 – from 34 runners. Six of the last eightwinners won on their previous outing (in fact in 2010 the 1-2-3 all won last time out,from only five of the 24 runners who had – including the 33/1 winner).Race 4 – 15:20 Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)Negatives are beaten last time out with 23 of the last 27 winners winning their previousstart. Only one five-year-old since 1985 has won and just three winners have been olderthan eight since 1951. Key trends are 16 of the last 22 winners had winning Cheltenhamform and 14 of the last 19 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at the festival before. 18 of thelast 20 winners started in the first 6 in the betting. Irish trained horses have won sevenof the last 12 runnings.Race 5 – 16:00 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country)Positives are first 3 in the betting and Irish trained horses have won all six renewals –four were trained by Enda Bolger. Nina Carberry has ridden the winner of three of thelast four renewals. Negatives are British trained horses, younger than 8 and never run inany kind of cross country race before.Race 6 – 16:40 David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 2)There are no key trends as this is only the 4th running of the race and has been won forthe last two years by the heavily supported Quevaga, and a hat-trick of wins is surelyhers for the taking although connections may opt to take on the boys either in the WorldHurdle.Race 7 – 17:15 Centenary Novices Handicap Chase (Class A listed)
  4. 4. Formerly known as the Jewson Novices Handicap and all six winners won or finishedsecond last time out and such horses have been responsible for the 1-2-3 four times anda 1-2 on another.Day 2 – Wednesday 16th MarchRace 1 – 13:30 The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders’ Novices’Chase)Positives are horses trained by Jonjo O’Neil who has won five renewals – including fourof the last nine. 25 of the last 27 winners finished in the first 4 last time out and the lastthree winners finished in the first 2 last time out. Negatives are only one 6 year-old haswon since 1989 and no successful 5 year-old for over 30 years. Paul Nicholls saddled justone placed horse in from 13 starters – of which nine started in the first five in thebetting. Just one winning favourite since 1992.Race 2 – 14:05 Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)23 of the last 25 winners started in the first 6 in the betting. Just one winner (in 1974)aged older than 6 in the races history (since 1971). Nicky Henderson is 0-21 in this race.Only two of his runners since 1990 have finished any higher than tenth. 26 of the last 27winners won or came 2nd on their most recent start. Top-six finishers in the previousseason’s Festival Bumper have a good record.Race 3 – 14:40 RSA Chase (Grade 1)Positives are the favourite and trained by Willie Mullins. The last 11 winners had racedat least three times over fences. 22 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd last timeout. 14 of the last 16 winners were aged 7 or 8; just two 6 year olds have won since 1978.Race 4 – 15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)Positives are ran in the Tingle Creek or Game Spirit Chase, eight of the last 11 winnerscontested the Tingle Creek Chase the same season. 10 of the last 12 winners started nobigger than 5/1. 19 of the last 26 winners had won or been placed at the Festival before.
  5. 5. Race 5 – 16:00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3)Positives are Irish trained, last-time-out winners, fresh horses (either a few runs thisseason or running off a longish break), Negatives are officially rated 148+, only onewinning favourite in the last 16 renewals. 11 of the last 13 winners have carried no morethan 11 stone.Race 6 – 16:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)Positives are last time out winners, in the top third of the handicap. Negatives arestarting at a single-figure price just five horses priced at under 10/1 have finished in thefirst 7 places.Race 7 – 17:15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Grade 1)Willie Mullins has trained the winner six times in the last 14 years (five of which were aonce-raced 5 year-old). Last time out winners have won 16 of the 18 runnings. Irish-trained horses have won 14 of the 18 runnings. 15 of the 18 winners had won a Bumpercomprising 14+ runners. 10 of the last 14 runnings have been won by a 5 year-old. 14 ofthe 18 winners emerged from the first 6 in the betting.Day 3 – Thursday 17th MarchRace 1 – 13:30 Jewson Novice Chase (Listed)The race is a new event (and therefore no stats) for the 2011 Cheltenham Festival, not tobe confused with the old Jewson Novices’ Handicap Chase which has been renamed theCentenary Novices’ Chase that has now become Tuesday’s seventh race.Race 2 – 14:05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)Positives are last time out winners, nine of the last 15 winners won last time out. Onlyone winning 5 year-old in 36 runnings of the race. 13 of the last 18 winners hadpreviously won over 3 miles. Just one winning favourite in the last 16 runnings.
  6. 6. Race 3 – 14:40 Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)11 of the 12 winners and runner’s-up had won at Cheltenham before. Last seasonproduced a lower-than-average representation of previous course winners (five from 13)but they were still responsible for the supplying the 1-2. All six previous winners wereofficially rated between 152-157 beforehand. Five of the six winners started at less than6/1.Race 4 – 15:20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle (Grade 1)No 5 year-old has ever won, although plenty have been placed. No Irish trained winnerfor 15 years. French-bred horses have won five of the last nine runnings. The last 23winners finished in the first 4 last time out and 14 of the 16 winners finished in the first2 last time out. No shock results of late. 8/1 is the highest SP in last ten years.Race 5 – 16:00 Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3)Positives are French-bred horses who have won six of the last 11 renewals (and beenrunner-up in four of the other five). Only one winning favourite since 1981 (nine of thelast favourites finished unplaced). 17 of the last 19 winners finished in the first 4 lasttime out. 17 of the last 19 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival before.Race 6 – 16:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (AmateurRiders)Only two of the last 31 winners were aged 7 or younger (yet the last three beatenfavourites were aged 6 and 7!). 8 and 9 year-olds have won 13 of the last 17 renewals (thelast three winners have been 9 year-olds). No Irish trained winner for 28 years. Lasttime out form is not necessarily important – six of the last eight winners were unplacedin their last run.Day 4 – Friday 18th MarchRace 1 – 13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1)
  7. 7. Positives are first 4 in the betting, the Adonis Hurdle winner, had final prep-run inFebruary, 15 of the last 17 winners had won at least twice over hurdles. 12 of the last 17winners (including all of the last six) started in the first 4 in the betting. Negatives arebeaten last time out. Only one Northern trained winner since 1976.Race 2 – 14:05 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)Positives are 5 & 6yr olds, 39 of last 48 winners were aged 5 or 6 (5 year olds have wonseven of the last twelve renewals, from just one-fifth of the total runners in that period).Ran in the Totesport Trophy and/or MCR Hurdle, the Imperial Cup winner, the IrishNovices, officially rated 128-135. 32 of the last 36 renewals were won by a horse startingat no bigger than 16/1. Negatives are, run less than four times earlier in the season. Nowinner has carried more than 11st 8Ib for 50 years (only one horse has carried more intoa place since 1979).Race 3 – 14:40 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)Positives are all six winners had run at least three times over hurdles. 16 of the 18 win-and-placed horses finished 1st or 2nd last time out. Negatives are outside the front fivein the betting.Race 4 – 15:20 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1)No winner older than 10 since 1969. Only one winner (Cool Dawn) aged 10 in the last 17renewals and just four ten-year-olds have placed since then from 35 to try, includingvery many fancied horses. 16 of the last 17 winners (and all of the last 11) aged between 7and 9.Nine of the last 10 winners were officially rated 166+. 11 of the last 13 winners wereplaced at the Festival before. 10 of the last 11 winners had won a race that season. Thelast 10 winners started in the first 3 in the betting, although there have been 10 horsespriced 33/1 and bigger placed since 1997. Horses beaten in the Gold Cup before are 2-67since 1994. Only See More Business (having won in 1999…and he was “carried out” by ahorse pulling up injured in 1998 rather than being beaten on merit) and Kauto Star
  8. 8. (second in 2008 and winner 12 months later – but had also won in 2007) have buckedthis trend.Race 5 – 16:00 Christie’s Foxhunter Chase Challenge CupPositives are front runners, horses at bigger prices. 15 of the last 20 winners were agednine or younger, from only fractionally over 50% of runners within that period. 20 of thelast 25 winners won last time out. Of the five winners aged 10+ three had been previouswinners of the race (Double Silk, Fantus and Earthmover).Race 6 – 16:40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap HurdleA new addition to the festival with only two previous runnings so there are very littlestats to work with although at the last 15 festivals over 50% (26-50) of Handicap Hurdlewinners also won last time out, from just less than 20% overall representation.Race 7 – 17:15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Grade 3)Positives are novices, the Irish, rated between 129-134, trained by Nicky Henderson orPaul Nicholls, had their prep run over hurdles last time out, previous course winner. 12of the last 14 winners had won over 2m2f+. 42 of the last 48 win-and-placed runnerswere aged under 10. 30 of the last 36 renewals were won by horses that started at nobigger than 10/1.SummaryThis year’s festival contains 27 ultra-competitive top class races that would challengeeven the hardiest of form book students to unravel and it will be interesting to see howsignificant the previous key trends pan out during the four days of intense action. Ourplan is to review each of the races on a daily basis and to provide a short-list of likelycontenders by applying the positive and negative trends detailed in this article. Theresultant selections will be posted each race day morning in the Members Tips area andhopefully these will provide some decent priced winners or in the very least a good runfor our money, as after all we are talking Cheltenham here and one thing is for sureevery single runner will be trying its hardest to claim a prize at the theatre of dreams!
  9. 9. Best of luckSteve CarterEditor – A number of well-respected sources of information were referred to in thecompilation of this article and we would like to acknowledge our thanks in particular tothe guys at http://www.allaboutbetting.co.uk for their input.

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