MPICT event Reference content from this presentation as: Spohrer, JC, W Hasan, & ME Dixon (2011) Presentation: The Emerging Pervasive Networked Computing Explosion and its Tremendous Pending Impact on Society, ICT Workforce, and Technical Education2011, San Francisco, January 6th, 2011. Permission to redistribute granted upon request to firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com, and [email_address]
Reference content from this presentation as: Spohrer, JC & Dixon ME (2011) Presentation: The Emerging Pervasive Networked Computing Explosion and its Tremendous Pending Impact on Society, ICT Workforce, and Technical Education2011, San Francisco, January 6th, 2011. Permission to redistribute granted upon request to firstname.lastname@example.org and [email_address]
Reference content from this presentation as: Spohrer, JC & Dixon ME (2011) Presentation: The Emerging Pervasive Networked Computing Explosion and its Tremendous Pending Impact on Society, ICT Workforce, and Technical Education2011, San Francisco, January 6th, 2011. Permission to redistribute granted upon request to email@example.com and [email_address]
First, our world is becoming instrumented. The transistor, invented 60 years ago, is the basic building block of the digital age. Now, consider a world in which there are a billion transistors per human, each one costing one ten-millionth of a cent. We’ll have that by 2010. There will likely be 4 billion mobile phone subscribers by the end of this year…and 30 billion Radio Frequency Identification tags produced globally within two years. Sensors are being embedded across entire ecosystems – supply-chains, healthcare networks, cities… even natural systems like rivers. Source: IBM’s Global Technology Outlook
The evolution of service science is to apply service science to create a Smarter Planet. What is smarter planet? A smarter planet is built out of many harmonized smarter systems, systems that are instrumented, interconnected, and intelligent (data, models, and analytics software are used to make better decisions) The world is instrumented meaning everything has computers, cameras, gps or other sensors – cars, stop lights, signs, roads, hospitals, retail stores, rivers, bridges, etc.. The world is getting more and more interconnected. If we could capture the right data and analyze it, we can make our planet smarter. IBM has been working on cleaning up pollution in Galway Bay, Ireland. The marine scientists told the IBMers that the mussels in the water close their shells when something bad enters the water. So IBM put sensors in some of the mussels and connected the sensors to an alert system and visualization system. When a pollutant enters the water, the mussels shut their shells, the sensors sends an alert and water management officials begin to take action to clean it up. Over time, they realize that a particular ship may be coming into the bay every other Tuesday, causing the problem, and they can go after the ship company to not drop pollutants or to find another way to rid of waste. This optimization takes place with other causes of the pollutants.
Korsten, P. and Seider, C. (2010) The world’s US$4 trillion challenge: Using a system-of-systems approach to build a smarter planet. IBM Institute for Business Value. http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/ibv-smarter-planet-system-of-systems.html The IBM report concluded that our planet can be viewed as a complex, dynamic, highly interconnected $54 trillion system of systems…. Some of you recognize that $54 trillion number is 100% if the WW 2008 GDP, and because GDP does not capture all the value (both gray and black market, as well as many types of value created by families and communities that is not part of formal economic exchange) the real value is much higher – but still $54 trillion per year is a very large number. The US economy is about 20-25% of the total. Also the top 2000 publically traded companies in the world, have annual revenues that are nearly 50% of this amount. So while it is a large number, it is possible to estimate the contribution made by individual nations and individual large businesses – and most importantly it is possible to see how complex and interconnected these systems are. But what about the waste or inefficiencies in these systems…
Korsten, P. and Seider, C. (2010) The world’s US$4 trillion challenge: Using a system-of-systems approach to build a smarter planet. IBM Institute for Business Value. http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/ibv-smarter-planet-system-of-systems.html The 480 economists surveyed estimate that all the systems carry inefficientes of up to $15 trillion, of which $4 trillion could be eliminated… The title of this IBM Business Value report is in fact “The World’s $4 Trillion Challenge: Using a system of systems approach to build a smarter planet.” One implication of this report since cities are where most of the population of the world is concentrated, is that some number of cities have over $1B in annual waste and inefficiencies that can be eliminated. This report is required reading for everyone in cities and universities around the world, who are interested in partnering together to first (1) estimate and develop ways of measuring the inefficiencies, and then (2) create actions plans that can compete for funding and other resources to make needed changes. As the systems reduce waste and expand capabilities for measuring inefficiencies, the systems become smarter systems and quality of life is improved thru modern service… And the good news is that every day there are more and more success stories being created. For example, the 2009 IBM Annual Report contains a map of the world….
What improves quality of life? Service system innovations. Every day we are customers of 13 types of service systems. If any of them fail, we have a “bad day” (Katrina New Orleans) I have been to two service science related conferences recently, one in Japan on Service Design and one in Portugal on Service Marketing… the papers from the proceedings of the conferences mapped onto all of these types of service systems… The numbers in yellow: 61 papers Service Design (Japan) / 75 papers Service Marketing (Portugal) / 78 Papers Service-Oriented Computing (US) Number in yellow Fist number: Service Design Conference, Japan 2 nd International Service Innovation Design Conference (ISIDC 2010), Future University Hakodate, Japan Second number Service Marketing Conference, Portugal, AMA SERVSIG at U Porto, Portugal Numbers in yellow: Number of AMA ServSIG 2010 abstracts that study each type of service system… (http://www.servsig2010.org/) Of 132 total abstracts… 10 studies all types of service systems 19 could not be classified In a moment we will look at definitions of quality of life, but for the moment, consider that everyday we all depend on 13 systems to have a relatively high quality of life, and if any one of these systems goes out or stops providing good service, then our quality of life suffers…. Transportation, Water, Food, Energy, Information, Buildings, Retail, Banking & Financial Services (like credit cards), Healthcare, Education, and Government at the City, State, and National levels…. Volcanic ash, hurricanes, earthquakes, snow storms, floods are some of the types of natural disasters that impact the operation of these service systems – but human made challenges like budget crises, bank failures, terrorism, wars, etc. can also impact the operation of these 13 all important service systems. Moreover, even when these systems are operating normally – we humans may not be satisfied with the quality of service or the quality of jobs in these systems. We want both the quality of service and the quality of jobs in these systems to get better year over year, ideally, but sometimes, like healthcare and education, the cost of maintaining existing quality levels seems to be a challenge as costs continue to rise… why is that “smarter” or sustainable innovation, which continuously reduces waste, and expands the capabilities of these systems is so hard to achieve? Can we truly achieve smarter systems and modern service? A number of organizations are asking these questions – and before looking at how these questions are being formalized into grand challenge questions for society – let’s look at what an IBM report concluded after surveying about 400 economists…. ==================== Quality of life for the average citizen (voter) depends on the quality of service and quality of jobs in 13 basic systems….. Local progress (from the perspective of the average citizen or voter) can be defined for our purposes as (quality of service & jobs) + returns (the provider, which is really the investor perspective, the risk taker in provisioning the service) + security (the authority or government perspective on the cost of maintaining order, and dealing with rules and rule violations) + smarter (or the first derivative – does all this get better over time – parents often talk about wanting to help create a better world for their children - sustainable innovation, means reducing waste, being good stewards of the planet, and expanding our capabilities to do things better and respond to challenges and outlier events better)…. Without putting too fine a point on it, most of the really important grand challenges in business and society relate to improving quality of life. Quality of life is a function of both quality of service from systems and quality of opportunities (or jobs) in systems. We have identified 13 systems that fit into three major categories – systems that focus on basic things people need, systems that focus on people’s activities and development, and systems that focus on governing. IBM’s Institute for Business Value has identified a $4 trillion challenge that can be addressed by using a system of systems approach. Employment data… 2008 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.t02.htm A. 3+0.4+0.5+8.9+1.4+2.0=16.2 B. C.13.1+1.8=14.9 Total 150,932 (100%) Transportation (Transportation and Warehousing 4,505 (3%)) Water & Waste (Utilities 560 (0.4%)) Food & Manufacturing (Mining 717 (0.5%), Manufacturing 13,431 (8.9%), Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 2,098 (1.4%)) Energy & Electricity Information (Information 2,997 (2%)) Construction (Construction 7,215 (4.8%)) Retail & Hospitality (Wholesale Trade 5,964 (4.0%), Retail Trade 15,356 (10.2%), Leisure and hospitality 13,459 (8.9%)) Financial & Banking/Business & Consulting (Financial activities 8,146 (5.4%), Professional and business services 17,778 (11.8%), Other services 6,333 (4.2%)) Healthcare (Healthcare and social assistance 15,819 (10.5%) Education (Educational services 3,037 (2%), Self-employed and unpaid family 9,313 (6.2%), Secondary jobs self-employed and unpaid family 1,524 (1.0%)) City Gov State Gov (State and local government 19,735 (13.1%)) Federal Gov (Federal government 2,764 (1.8%))
http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/ And the NAE’s Engineering Grand Challenge problems include – making solar energy economical – which fits into category 4. Smarter Energy… there are at least two NAE grand challenges that related to 10. Smarter Education systems – Advance personalized learning and Engineer the tools of scientific discovery… one might also want to include enhance virtual reality and reverse engineer the brain – and I included those under 5. Smarter Information systems… the point is that solving any one of these 14 NAE grand challenge problems has the potential to have significant impact on one or more of the 13 systems that we all depend on every day for quality of life… And so now would be a good time to say a little bit more about the component measurements and the challenges of defining quality of life…
What is the skills goal? T-shaped professional, ready for T-eamwork… T-shaped people are ready for T-eamwork – they are excellent communicators, with real world experience, and deep (or specialized) in at least one discipline and systems area, but with good team work skills interacting with others who are deep in other disciplines and systems areas. Also, T-shaped professionals also make excellent entrepreneurs, able to innovate with others to create new technology, business, and societal innovations. T-shaped people are adaptive innovators, and well prepared for life-long learning in case they need to become deep in some new area… they are better prepared than I-shaped people, who lack the breadth. Therefore, IBM and other public and private organizations are looking to hire more of this new kind of skills and experience profile – one that is both broad and deep.. These organizations have been collaborating with universities around the world to establish a new area of study known as service science, management, engineering, and design (SSMED) – to prepare computer scientists, MBAs, industrial engineers, operations research, management of information systems, systems engineers, and students of many other discipline areas – to understand better how to work on multidisciplinary teams and attack the grand challenge problems associated with improving service systems…
How to visualize service science? The systems-disciplines matrix… SSMED or service science, for short, provides a transdisciplinary framework for organizing student learning around 13 systems areas and 13 specialized academic discipline areas. We have already discussed the 13 systems areas, and the three groups (flows, human activity, and governing)… the discipline areas are organized into four areas that deal with stakeholders, resources, change, and value creation. If we have time, I have included some back-up slides that describes service science in the next level of detail. However, to understand the transdisciplinary framework, one just needs to appreciate that discipline areas such as marketing, operations, public policy, strategy, psychology, industrial engineering, computer science, organizational science, economics, statistics, and others can be applied to any of the 13 types of systems. Service science provides a transdisciplinary framework to organize problem sets and exercises that help students in any of these disciplines become better T-shaped professionals, and ready for teamwork on multidisciplinary teams working to improve any type of service system. As existing disciplines graduate more students who are T-shaped, and have exposure to service science, the world becomes better prepared to solve grand challenge problems and create smarter systems that deliver modern service. Especially, where students have had the opportunity to work as part of an urban innovation center that links their university with real-world problems in their urban environment – they will have important experiences to help them contribute to solving grand challenge problems. ================================================ SSMED (Service Science, Management, Engineering and Design) Systems change over their life cycle… what is inside become outside and vice versa In the course of the lifecycle… systems are merged and divested (fusion and fission) systems are insourced and outsourced (leased/contracted relations) systems are input and output (owner ship relations) SSMED standard should ensure people know 13 systems and 13 disciplines/professions (the key is knowing them all to the right level to be able to communicate and problem-solve effectively) Multidisciplinary teams – solve problems that require discipline knowledge Interdisciplinary teams – solve harder problems, because they create new knowledge in between disciplines Transdisciplinary teams – solve very hard problems, because the people know discipline and system knowledge Ross Dawson says “Collaboration drives everything” in his talk about the future of universities… https://deimos.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/BrowsePrivately/griffith.edu.au.3684852440
The reasonable questions: What is a service system? What is service science? A service system is a human-made system to improve customer-provider interactions, or value-cocreation. As a customer, who is your favorite service provider? Don’t have one – well that is one reason we need service science : - ) More seriously service systems can be very complex… Because service systems are so complex, many different disciplines study different aspects of them… you can think of marketing as study the trunk of the elephant (the customer) and operations as studying the tale (the provider), design and psychology the user experience, computer science the information systems part, systems engineering some aspects of the engineered parts of the system, and economics other aspects of the value creation, not studied by the systems engineers… in fact many people say “Service science is just <and then they name their favorite discipline>” Service Science is the study of service systems and value cocreation…. including routine and non-routine, direct and indirect, customer and provider interactions that achieve value-cocreation outcomes for all stakeholders Economics Service 1 = economic activities that are not agriculture or manufacturing Service 3 = a transformation that one economic entity performs with the permission of a second entity, that transforms the second entity or a possession of the second entity Service 4 = an exchange between economic entities that does not transfer ownership of a physical thing. Service Science Service 2 = human-made value-cocreation phenomena, specifically a mutually beneficial outcome proposed, agreed to, and realized by two or more service system entities interacting. Service system entities can be people, businesses, nations, and any other economic entities with legal rights, such as the ability to own property, enter into binding contracts, etc. Quantifiable measures associated with service system entity interactions over the life-time of the entity, include quality, productivity, compliance, and sustainable innovation measures. Service system entities configure four types of resources, accessible by four types of access rights, and reason about four types of stakeholders when designing value-cocreation interactions, and evaluating them via their processes of valuing. Both collaboration and competition can both be/not be forms of value-cocreation, depending on context Operations Service 5 = a production process that requires inputs from a customer entity Computer Science Service 6 = a modular capability that can be computationally accessed and composed with others Systems Engineering Service 7 = a system (with inputs, outputs, capacity limits, and performance characteristics) which is interconnected with other systems that may seek to access its capabilities to create benefits, and in which local optimization of the system interactions may not lead to global performance improvements Design and Psychology Service 8 = an experience of a customer entity that results from that customer entity interacting with provider entities’ offerings Marketing Service 9 = the application of competence (e.g., resources, skills, capabilities) for the benefit of another entity Service 10 = a customer-provider interaction that creates mutual benefits
Nations (~100) States/Provinces (~1000) Cities/Regions (~10,000) Educational Institutions (~100,000) Healthcare Institutions (~100,000) Other Enterprises (~10,000,000) Largest 2000 >50% GDP WW Families/Households (~1B) Persons (~10B) Balance/Improve Quality of Life, generation after generation GDP/Capita Quality of Service Customer Experience Quality of Jobs Employee Experience Quality of Investment-Opportunities Owner Experience Entrepreneurial Experience Sustainability GDP/Energy-Unit % Fossil % Renewable GDP/Mass-Unit % New Inputs % Recycled Inputs
… cities are a system of systems with dense population, which creates challenges and opportunities and even the potential for many new types of careers… some statistics… Demographic change: During the first decade of the 21 st century, for the first time in history, more than 50% of the world’s population live in cities and the urban population of all nations continues to grow. For developed nations, the urban population has reached 70% and continues to increase. Challenges: The negative impacts of urbanization are well known from traffic congestion, housing, clean water, and energy shortages, pollution, waste disposal costs, pandemic risks, high school drop-out rates, tax burden, and environmental stress (noise, lights at night, carcinogens, toxins, etc.). Opportunity: Cities may be the key building blocks for a sustainable planet, where innovations can quickly scale to impact the lives of millions of people. While technology will not be a panacea, rapidly advancing technology will offer new opportunities for efficiencies. Cities provide opportunities to more rapidly deploy and scale up advanced technologies to benefit the people living in a region. Careers: As urban sustainability and innovation projects increase in quantity, attractive long-term career paths will open up for students properly prepared. Examples: More US cities are adopting climate change action plans. PlaNYC (released 2007) has a focus initiatives that apply technology to reduce waste and continuously improve a long-term sustainability and quality of life roadmap for the city. In October 2009, 30 new initiatives to grow New York City’s green economy were announced by the mayor’s office, including an urban technology innovation center to promote smart building best practices and develop NYC’s green tech workforce. Without putting too fine a point on it, most of the really important grand challenges in business and society relate to improving quality of life. Quality of life is a function of both quality of service from systems and quality of opportunities (or jobs) in systems. We have identified 13 systems that fit into three major categories – systems that focus on basic things people need, systems that focus on people’s activities and development, and systems that focus on governing. IBM’s Institute for Business Value has identified a $4 trillion challenge that can be addressed by using a system of systems approach.
A growing number of cities are partnering with their local universities to address their grand challenge problems and to improve quality of life through investments in smarter systems and modern service… To understand how universities can respond and help cities, it is important to understand that universities are mini-cities (system of systems) – with their own operations and challenges. Cities are important building blocks in nations. Universities are important building blocks in cities.
Source: Building Luxury Hotels http://www.docstoc.com/docs/1604634/How-Much-Does-it-Cost-to-Build-a-Hotel IBM Case Study: St. Regis Hotel Shanghai Only Intelligent Building among 33 five stars hotels in the region Designed at 5.1% energy cost to revenue, now at 4.9% ... all other 5 star hotels average 8% 40% reduced energy cost / revenue vs. other 5 Star hotels
Talk about US being off the chart with 23% WW GDP and 30% of Top Ranked University in WW Top 500, China and other large population emerging markets rising rapidly, and US moving down towards the rest of the pack…. 2004-2009: Relative Change China (+3,+2), US (-3.5,-5) Graph based on data from Source: http://www.arwu.org/ARWUAnalysis2009.jsp Analysis: Antonio Fischetto and Giovanna Lella (URome, Italy) students visiting IBM Almaden Dynamic graphy based on Swiss students work: http://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html US is still “off the chart” – China projected to be “off the chart” in less than 10 years: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 30,3 % US % of WW GDP: 23,3 % Correlating Nation’s (2004) % of WW GDP to % of WW Top-Ranked Universities US is literally “off the chart” – but including US make high correlation even higher: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 33,865 % US % of WW GDP: 28,365 %
Of course, this is a case of universities, their staff, faculty, and students acting locally. In a sense, the cities are a living lab for the universities as they establish relevant projects and some create urban innovation centers… to help measure the waste in exisitng systems, and try to create smarter systems with more capabilities including provisioning and delivering modern service. As the list of cities with major populations indicates, the opportunity to create innovations that impact the lives of millions of people is a real opportunity for universities that can establish the right partnership with their host city…
This world map shows the population growth per hour projected through 2015 in some of the fastest growing cities with populations over one million people. Source: Urban Age
Contact: Mark Dixon (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Contact: Mark Dixon (email@example.com)
Contact: Mark Dixon (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Contact: Mark Dixon (email@example.com)
Contact: Mark Dixon (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Contact: Mark Dixon (email@example.com) The reality of living in a globally integrated world is upon us. But the meltdown of our financial markets has jolted us awake to the realities and dangers of highly complex global systems. In truth, the first decade of the 21st century has been a series of wake-up calls, with a single subject: the reality of global integration: Frozen credit markets and limited access to capital Economic downturn and future uncertainty abound Energy shortfalls and erratic commodity prices Information explosion and risk/opportunity growth Slowing superpowers and emerging economies Increasingly complex supply chains and empowered consumers Global integration is changing the corporate model and the nature of work itself. But we now see that the movement of information, work and capital across developed and developing nations—as profound as those are—constitute just one aspect of global integration. These collective realizations have reminded us that we are all now connected – economically, technically and socially. But we’re also learning that just being connected is not sufficient
Contact: Mark Dixon (firstname.lastname@example.org) Yes, the world continues to get ”smaller.&quot; And yes, it continues to get “flatter” and more interconnected through forces such as free trade, the Internet and the arrival of globalization. The world is smaller and flatter Something meaningful is happening… every human being, country, city, nation, organization, company, natural system and man-made system is becoming interconnected. This is leading to new challenges and new possibilities for progress. We are all familiar with global integration and how the planet is becoming flatter. And through interconnected communications and commerce, it’s becoming smaller. But something else is also going on. Something that may ultimately have a more profound affect on our society, businesses and our individual lives…the planet is also becoming smarter. Building a smarter planet is IBM's point of view on how interconnected technologies are changing the way the world literally works . That is, the systems and processes that enable: physical goods to be developed, manufactured, bought and sold; services to be delivered; everything from people and money to oil, water and electrons to move; and billions of people to work, govern themselves and live.
Contact: Mark Dixon (email@example.com)
Contact: Mark Dixon (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Contact: Mark Dixon (email@example.com)
Contact: Mark Dixon (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Contact: Mark Dixon (email@example.com)
Contact: Mark Dixon (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Permission to re-distribute granted by Jim Spohrer – please request via email (email@example.com) This talk provided a concise introduction to SSME+D evolving, and applying Service Science to build a Smarter Planet… Reference content from this presentation as: Spohrer, JC (2010) Presentation: SSME+D (for Design) Evolving: Update on Service Science Progress & Directions. Event. Place. Date. Permission to redistribute granted upon request to firstname.lastname@example.org But I want to end by sharing some relevant quotes… The first you may have seen on TV or heard on the radio – it is from IBM – Instrumented, Interconnected, Intellient – Let’s build a smarter planet (more on this one shortly) Second, If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities, (as we will see cities turn out to be ideal building blocks to get right for a number of reasons) And if we focus on cities, then the quote from the Foundation Metropolitan paints the right picture, cities learning from cities learning from cities… The next is probably the best known quote in the group “think global, act local” (we will revisit this important thought) Since all the major cities of the world have one or more universities, the next quote is of interest “the future is born in universities” And two more well known quotes about the future – the best way to predict the future is to build it, and the future is already here… it is just not evenly distributed. The next quote is an important one for discipline specialists at universities to keep in mind – real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries (so be on guard for myopic solutions that appear too good to be true, they often are!)… Because if we are not careful, today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions… And since we cannot anticipate all risks or quickly resolve them once we notice them, we should probably never forget what HG Wells said - that history is a race between education and catastrophe… In a world of accelerating change, this last statement also serves as a reminder that the pace of real innovation in education is a good target for study in terms of smarter systems and modern service…
In conclusion, let’s consider the big picture – starting with the big bang…. and evolution of the earth, life on earth, human life, cities, universities, and the modern world…: Many people still ask -- where is the science in the “Service Science?” One answer is that the science is hidden away in each of the component disciplines that study service systems, scientifically from their particular perspective… However, the big picture answer is “Ecology” - Ecology is the study of the abundance and distribution of entities (populations of things) in an environment… and how the entities interact with each other and their environment over successive generations of entities. The natural sciences (increasingly interdisciplinary) study the left side, using physics, chemistry, and biology Service science (originated as interdisciplinary) studies the right side, using history, economics, management, engineering, design, etc. Service science is still a young area, but from the growth of service in nations and businesses to the opportunity to apply service science to build a smarter planet, innovate service systems, and improve quality of life… it is an emerging science with bright future, and yes… it will continue to evolve : - ) Most people think of ecology in terms of living organisms, like plants and animals in a natural environment. However, the concept of ecology is more general and can be applied to entities as diverse as the populations of types of atoms in stars to the types of businesses in a national economy. I want to start my talk today on “service,” by first thinking broadly about ecologies of entities and their interactions. Eventually, we will get to human-made service system entities and human-made value-cocreation mechanisms… but for today, let’s really start at the very beginning – the big bang. About 14B years ago (indicated by the top of this purple bar), our universe started with a big bang. And through a process of known as fusion, stars turned populations of lighter atoms like hydrogen into heavier atoms like helium, and when stars of a certain size have done all the fusion they could, they would start slowing down, and eventually collapse rapidly, go nova, explode and send heavier atoms out into the universe, and eventually new stars form, and the process repeats over and over, creating stars with different populations of types of atoms, including heavier and heavier elments. So where did our sun and the earth come from…. Eventually after about ten billion years in the ecology of stars and atoms within stars, a very important star formed our sun (the yellow on the left) – and there were plenty of iron and nickel atoms swirling about as our sun formed, and began to burn 4.5B years ago, and the Earth formed about 4.3B years ago (the blue on the left)… In less than a billion years, the early earth evolved a remarkable ecology of complex molecules, including amino acids, and after less than a billion years, an ecology of bacteria took hold on early earth (the bright green on the left). The ecology of single cell bacteria flourished and after another billion years of interactions between the bacteria, the first multicellular organisms formed, and soon the ecology of sponges (the light blue on the left) and other multi-cellular entities began to spread out across the earth. Then after nearly two billion years, a type of division of labor between the cells in multicelluar organism lead to entities with cells acting as neurons in the first clams (the red on the left), and these neurons allowed the clams to open and close at the right time. After only 200 million years, tribolites appeared the first organisms with dense neural structures that could be called brains appeared (the black on the left), and then after about 300 million years, multicelluar organisms as complex as bees appeared (the olive on the left), and these were social insects, with division of labor among individuals in a population, with queens, drones, worker bees. So 200 million years ago, over 13B years after the big bang, the ecology of living entities is well established on planet earth, including social entities with brains and division of labor between individuals in a population…. Living in colonies that some have compared to human cities – where thousands of individuals live in close proximity and divide up the work that needs to be done to help the colony survive through many, many generations of individuals that come and go. Bees are still hear today. And their wingless cousins, called ants, have taken division of labor to incredible levels of complexity in ant cities in nearly every ecological niche on the planet, except under water. Now let’s look at the human ecology,and the formation of service system entities and value-cocreation mechanisms, a small portion of which is represented by the colored bar on the right. Recall bees appeared about 200 million years ago, a small but noticeable fraction of the age of the universe. Now take 1% of this little olive slice, which is 2 million years… that is how long people have been on earth, just one percent of this little olive slice here. What did people do in most of that 2million years? Basically, they spread out to every corner of the planet, and changed their skin color, eye colors, and hair colors, they spread out and became diverse with many different appearances and languages. It took most of that 200 millions just to spread out and cover most of the planet with people. When there was no more room to spread out the density of people in regions went up…. Now take 1% of that 2million years of human history which basically involved spreading out to every corner of the planet and becoming more diverse, recall ecology is the study of abundance and distribution and types of interactions, and 1% of that 2million years is just 20,000 years, and now divide that in half and that represents 10,000 years. The bar on the right represents 10,000 years or just 500 generations of people, if a generation is about 20 years. 500 generations ago humans built the first cities, prior to this there were no cities so the roughly 100M people spread out around the world 0% lived in cities, but about 500 generations ago the first cities formed, and division of labor and human-made service interactions based on division of labor took off – this is our human big bang – the explosion of division of labor in cities. Cities were the big bang for service scientists, because that is when the diversity of specialized roles and division of labor, which is at the heart of a knowledge-based service economy really begins to take off... So cities are the first really important type of human-made service system entities for service scientists to study, the people living in the city, the urban dwellers or citizens are both customers of and providers of service to each other, and division of labor is the first really important type of human-made value-cocreation mechanism for service scientists to study. (Note families are a very important type of service system entity, arguably more important than cities and certainly much older – however, family structure is more an evolution of primate family structure – and so in a sense is less of a human-made service system entity and more of an inherited service system entity… however, in the early cities often the trades were handed down father to son, and mother to daughter as early service businesses were often family run enterprises in which the children participated – so families specialized and the family names often reflect those specialization – for example, much later in England we get the family names like smith, mason, taylor, cooper, etc.) So to a service scientist, we are very excited about cities as important types of service system entities, and division of labor as an important type of value-cocreation mechanism, and all this really takes off in a big way just 500 generations ago when the world population was just getting to around 100M people spread out all around the world – so 10,000 years about about 1% of the worlds population was living in early versions of cities. It wasn’t until 1900 that 10% of the world’s then nearly 2B people lived in cities, and just this last decade that 50% of the worlds 6B people lived in cities, and by 2050 75% of the worlds projected 10B population will be urban dwellers. If there is a human-made service system that we need to design right, it is cities. It should be noted that the growth of what economist call the service sector, parallels almost exactly the growth of urban population size and increased division-of-labor opportunities that cities enable – so in a very real sense SERVICE GROWTH IS CITY GROWTH OR URBAN POPULATION GROWTH… in the last decade service jobs passed agriculture jobs for the first time, and urban dwellers passed rural dwellers for the first time. But I am starting to get ahead of myself, let’s look at how the human-made ecology of service system entities and value-cocreation mechanisms evolved over the last 10,000 years or 500 generations. The population of artifacts with written language on them takes off about 6000 years ago or about 300 generations ago (the yellow bar on the right). Expertise with symbols helped certain professions form – and the first computers were people writing and processing symbols - scribes were required, another division of labor – so the service of reading and writing, which had a limited market at first began to emerge to help keep better records. Scribes were in many ways the first computers, writing and reading back symbols – and could remember more and more accurately than anyone else. Written laws (blue on right) that govern human behavior in cities takes off about 5000 years ago – including laws about property rights, and punishment for crimes. Shortly there after, coins become quite common as the first type of standard monetary and weight measurement system (green on right). So legal and economic infrastructure for future service system entities come along about 5000 years ago, or 250 generations ago, with perhaps 2% of the population living in cities…. (historical footnote: Paper money notes don’t come along much until around about 1400 years ago – bank notes, so use of coins is significantly older than paper money, and paper money really required banks as service system entities before paper money could succeed.). About 50 generations ago, we get the emergence of another one of the great types of service system entities – namely universities (light blue line) – students are the customers, as well as the employers that need the students. Universities help feed the division of labor in cities that needed specialized skills, including the research discipline skills needed to deepen bodies of knowledge in particular discipline areas. The red line indicates the population of printing presses taking off in the world, and hence the number of books and newspapers. This was only about 500 years or 25 generations ago. Now university faculty and students could more easily get books, and cities began to expand as the world’s population grew, and more cities had universities as well. The black line indicates the beginning of the industrial revolution about 200 years ago, the sream engine, railroads, telegraph and proliferation of the next great type of service system entity – the manufacturing businesses - that benefited from standard parts, technological advances and scale economies, and required professional managers and engineers. About 100 years ago, universities began adding business schools to keep up with the demand for specialized business management skills, and many new engineering disciplines including civil engineering, mechanical engineering, chemical engineering, and electrical engineering, fuel specialization and division of labor. By 1900, just over 100 years ago, or 5 generations ago 10% of the worlds population, or about 200 million people were living in cities and many of those cities had universities or were starting universities. Again fueling specialization, division of labor, and the growth of service as a component of the economy measured by traditional economists. Finally, just 60 years ago or 3 generations ago, the electronic semiconductor transistor was developed (indicated by the olive colored line on the right), and the information age took off, and many information intensive service activities could now benefit from computers to improve technology (e.g., accounting) and many other areas. So to recap, cities are one of the oldest and most important type of service system and universities are an important and old type of service system, as well as many types of businesses. Service science is the study of service system entities, their abundance and distribution, and their interactions. Division of labor is one of the most important types of value cocreation mechanisms, and people often need specialized skills to fill roles in service systems. Service science like ecology studies entities and their interactions over successive generations. New types of human-made service system entities and value-cocreation mechanisms continue to form, like wikipedia and peer production systems. Age of Unvierse (Wikipedia) The age of the universe is the time elapsed between the Big Bang and the present day. Current theory and observations suggest that the universe is 13.75 ±0.17 billion years old.  Age of Sun The Sun was formed about 4.57 billion years ago when a hydrogen molecular cloud collapsed.  Solar formation is dated in two ways: the Sun's current main sequence age, determined using computer models of stellar evolution and nucleocosmochronology , is thought to be about 4.57 billion years.  This is in close accord with the radiometric date of the oldest Solar System material, at 4.567 billion years ago.   Age of Earth The age of the Earth is around 4.54 billion years (4.54 × 109 years ± 1%).    This age has been determined by radiometric age dating of meteorite material and is consistent with the ages of the oldest-known terrestrial and lunar samples . The Sun , in comparison, is about 4.57 billion years old , about 30 million years older. Age of Bacteria (Uni-cellular life) The ancestors of modern bacteria were single-celled microorganisms that were the first forms of life to develop on earth, about 4 billion years ago. For about 3 billion years, all organisms were microscopic, and bacteria and archaea were the dominant forms of life.   Although bacterial fossils exist, such as stromatolites , their lack of distinctive morphology prevents them from being used to examine the history of bacterial evolution, or to date the time of origin of a particular bacterial species. However, gene sequences can be used to reconstruct the bacterial phylogeny , and these studies indicate that bacteria diverged first from the archaeal/eukaryotic lineage.  The most recent common ancestor of bacteria and archaea was probably a hyperthermophile that lived about 2.5 billion–3.2 billion years ago.   Cities (Wikipedia) Early cities developed in a number of regions of the ancient world. Mesopotamia can claim the earliest cities, particularly Eridu, Uruk, and Ur. After Mesopotamia, this culture arose in Syria and Anatolia, as shown by the city of Çatalhöyük (7500-5700BC). Writing (Wikipedia) Writing is an extension of human language across time and space. Writing most likely began as a consequence of political expansion in ancient cultures, which needed reliable means for transmitting information, maintaining financial accounts, keeping historical records, and similar activities. Around the 4th millennium BC, the complexity of trade and administration outgrew the power of memory, and writing became a more dependable method of recording and presenting transactions in a permanent form  . In both Mesoamerica and Ancient Egypt writing may have evolved through calendrics and a political necessity for recording historical and environmental events. Written Law (Wikipedia) The history of law is closely connected to the development of civilization . Ancient Egyptian law, dating as far back as 3000 BC, contained a civil code that was probably broken into twelve books. It was based on the concept of Ma'at , characterised by tradition, rhetorical speech, social equality and impartiality.   By the 22nd century BC, the ancient Sumerian ruler Ur- Nammu had formulated the first law code , which consisted of casuistic statements (&quot;if ... then ...&quot;). Around 1760 BC, King Hammurabi further developed Babylonian law , by codifying and inscribing it in stone. Hammurabi placed several copies of his law code throughout the kingdom of Babylon as stelae , for the entire public to see; this became known as the Codex Hammurabi . The most intact copy of these stelae was discovered in the 19th century by British Assyriologists, and has since been fully transliterated and translated into various languages, including English, German, and French.  Money (Wikipedia) Many cultures around the world eventually developed the use of commodity money . The shekel was originally both a unit of currency and a unit of weight.  . The first usage of the term came from Mesopotamia circa 3000 BC. Societies in the Americas, Asia, Africa and Australia used shell money – usually, the shell of the money cowry ( Cypraea moneta ) were used. According to Herodotus , and most modern scholars, the Lydians were the first people to introduce the use of gold and silver coin .  It is thought that these first stamped coins were minted around 650–600 BC.  Universities (Wikipedia) Prior to their formal establishment, many medieval universities were run for hundreds of years as Christian cathedral schools or monastic schools ( Scholae monasticae ), in which monks and nuns taught classes; evidence of these immediate forerunners of the later university at many places dates back to the 6th century AD.  The first universities were the University of Bologna (1088), the University of Paris (c. 1150, later associated with the Sorbonne ), the University of Oxford (1167), the University of Palencia (1208), the University of Cambridge (1209), the University of Salamanca (1218), the University of Montpellier (1220), the University of Padua (1222), the University of Naples Federico II (1224), the University of Toulouse (1229).   Printing and Books (Wikipedia) Johannes Gutenberg's work on the printing press began in approximately 1436 when he partnered with Andreas Dritzehn—a man he had previously instructed in gem-cutting—and Andreas Heilmann, owner of a paper mill.  However, it was not until a 1439 lawsuit against Gutenberg that an official record exists; witnesses' testimony discussed Gutenberg's types, an inventory of metals (including lead), and his type molds. 
Transcript of "Mpict cloud computing and ict workforce 20110106 v8"
The Emerging Pervasive Networked Computing Explosion and its Tremendous Pending Impact on Society, ICT Workforce, and Technical Education Working Together to Build a Smarter Planet Presented by: Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, email@example.com Director, IBM University Programs World Wide Co-created with Waqar Hasan, IBM Academic Initiatives (Western US Region) Smarter Government slides by: Mark E. Dixon, [email_address] MPICT (Mid-Pacific ICT) 2011 San Francisco, January 6, 2011
Today’s Talk <ul><li>This talk will review the exciting current trends and future directions in ICT (Information and Communication Technologies). The implication for society, ICT workforce, and technical education, including community college ICT educators will be explored. With an anemic economic recovery underway and globalization concerns creating uncertainty, community-minded ICT educators should take heart and continue to be motivated for several key reasons that will be presented. Every cloud has a silver lining, and in the seeds of today's problems lie the driver of tomorrow's growth. The ICT transformation that happened in the private sector is about to happen for the public sector, but in some surprising ways that will increase demand for local ICT education especially. This talk will provide a broad, high-level view of local and global changes, and what will drive the local, regional demand for ICT talent in the future. In many ways, the future for local ICT talent is exceptionally bright, but the nature of ICT talent will need to be re-defined in the process. T-shaped professionals are in demand, with both depth and breadth across both academic disciplines and societal systems, and thereby better prepared as life-long-learners ready to constantly adapt to an accelerating rate of change. </li></ul>
Today’s Talk <ul><li>Some Highlights of the 2010 Environmental Scan </li></ul><ul><li>Very Brief History of ICT </li></ul><ul><li>Trends: Current & future trends </li></ul><ul><li>Implications: For society, ICT workforce, and technical education </li></ul><ul><li>Key Trend: ICT in public sector </li></ul><ul><li>Challenge: More T-shaped professionals needed </li></ul>
2010 Environmental Scan: ICT <ul><li>CA Stats </li></ul><ul><ul><li>4% of all companies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4% of workforce </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>6% of private sector revenue </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>12% of salaries </li></ul></ul><ul><li>600 Employers Surveyed </li></ul><ul><ul><li>86% end-user support roles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>67% data center support </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>71% on-line/internet suppot </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>58% management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>51% HW&SW development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>41% marketing & sales </li></ul></ul>Industry Specific Enterprise Specific Generally Applicable
2010 Environmental Scan: ICT <ul><li>How will needs change? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Need more employees with ICT skills (self-service) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Need broader skill sets, higher skill sets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Need continual progression, currency (life-long learning) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>IT services more important, more expertise needed </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Improving ICT education </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More real world experience </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More soft skills, team work </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More focus on systems, benefits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Global work readiness </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Deeper analytic/problem-solving skills </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Broader team-work, communications skills </li></ul></ul>
A Brief History of ICT <ul><li>1945 Columbia’s Watson Lab </li></ul><ul><li>1947-1954 Transistor (G -> S) </li></ul><ul><li>1958 Integrated Circuit </li></ul><ul><li>1969 First IMP 2 IMP Msg </li></ul><ul><li>1971 Microprocessor </li></ul><ul><li>2010 1/3 WW Population with Internet access </li></ul><ul><li>2010 Mobile phone subscriptions hit 5 billion </li></ul><ul><li>? 75% WW population with internet access from mobile phone </li></ul>
In 2001, there were 60 million transistors for every human on the planet ... In 2011, there is more than 1 billion transistors per human… … each costing 1/10 millionth of a cent.
Trends: ICT Evolution INSTRUMENTED We now have the ability to measure, sense and see the exact condition of practically everything. INTERCONNECTED People, systems and objects can communicate and interact with each other in entirely new ways. INTELLIGENT We can respond to changes quickly and accurately, and get better results by predicting and optimizing for future events. IT WORKFORCE MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN CUSTOMERS TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES
Our planet is a complex, dynamic, highly interconnected $54 Trillion system-of-systems (OECD-based analysis) Communication $ 3.96 Tn Transportation $ 6.95 Tn Leisure / Recreation / Clothing $ 7.80 Tn Healthcare $ 4.27 Tn Food $ 4.89 Tn Infrastructure $ 12.54 Tn Govt. & Safety $ 5.21 Tn Finance $ 4.58 Tn Electricity $ 2.94 Tn Education $ 1.36 Tn Water $ 0.13 Tn Global system-of-systems $54 Trillion (100% of WW 2008 GDP) Same Industry Business Support IT Systems Energy Resources Machinery Materials Trade Legend for system inputs Note: 1. Size of bubbles represents systems’ economic values 2. Arrows represent the strength of systems’ interaction Source: IBV analysis based on OECD This chart shows ‘systems‘ (not ‘industries‘) Our planet is a complex system-of-systems 1 Tn
Economists estimate, that all systems carry inefficiencies of up to $15 Tn, of which $4 Tn could be eliminated How to read the chart: For example, the Healthcare system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From that level of 42% inefficiency, economists estimate that ~34% can be eliminated (= 34% x 42%). We now have the capabilities to manage a system-of-systems planet Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480 Global economic value of $4 Trillion 7% of WW 2008 GDP Improvement potential $15 Trillion 28% of WW 2008 GDP Inefficiencies $54 Trillion 100% of WW 2008 GDP System-of-systems System inefficiency as % of total economic value Improvement potential as % of system inefficiency Education 1,360 Building & Transport Infrastructure 12,540 Healthcare 4,270 Government & Safety 5,210 Electricity 2,940 Financial 4,580 Food & Water 4,890 Transportation (Goods & Passenger) 6,950 Leisure / Recreation / Clothing 7,800 Communication 3,960 Analysis of inefficiencies in the planet‘s system-of-systems Note: Size of the bubble indicate absolute value of the system in USD Billions 42% 34% This chart shows ‘systems‘ (not ‘industries‘)
What improves Quality-of-Life? Service System Innovations <ul><li>A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1. Transportation & supply chain </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3. Food & products manufacturing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting (wealthy) (21%*) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>12. States /regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>13. Nations /NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax) </li></ul></ul>20/10/10 0/19/0 2/7/4 2/1/1 7/6/1 1/1/0 5/17/27 1/0/2 24/24/1 2/20/24 7/10/3 5/2/2 3/3/1 0/0/0 1/2/2 Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities * = US Labor % in 2009. “ 61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”
NAE’s Engineering Grand Challenges <ul><li>A. Systems that focus on flow of things humans need </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1. Transportation & Supply Chain </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Restore and enhance urban infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2. Water & Waste/Climate & Green tech </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provide access to clear water </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3. Food & Products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manager nitrogen cycle </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4. Energy & Electricity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Make solar energy economical </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provide energy from fusion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Develop carbon sequestration methods </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5. Information & Communication Technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Enhance virtual reality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Secure cyberspace </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reverse engineer the brain </li></ul></ul><ul><li>B. Systems that focus on human activity & development </li></ul><ul><ul><li>6. Buildings & Construction (smart spaces) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Restore and enhance urban infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>7. Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment (tourism) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Enhance virtual reality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>8. Banking & Finance/Business & Consulting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>9. Healthcare & Family Life </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Advance health informatics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Engineer better medicines </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reverse engineer the brain </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10. Education & Work Life/Jobs & Entrepreneurship </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Advance personalized learning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Engineer the tools of scientific discovery </li></ul></ul><ul><li>C. Systems that focus on human governance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>11. City & Security </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Restore and improve urban infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Secure cyberspace </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Prevent nuclear terror </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>12. State /Region & Development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>13. Nation & Rights </li></ul></ul>
Changing Nature of Work Levy, F, & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Princeton University Press. Based on U.S. Department of Labor’ Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) Expert Thinking (deep) Complex Communication (broad) Routine Manual Non-routine Manual Routine Cognitive Increasing usage of job descriptive terms
What is the skills goal? T-Shaped professionals, ready for T-eamwork! SSME+D = Service Science, Management, Engineering + Design Many disciplines (understanding & communications) Many systems (understanding & communications) Deep in one discipline (analytic thinking & problem solving) Deep in one system (analytic thinking & problem solving) Many team-oriented service projects completed (resume: outcomes, accomplishments & awards)
How to visualize skills? The Systems-Disciplines Matrix disciplines systems Systems that focus on flows of things Systems that govern Systems that support people’s activities transportation & supply chain water & waste food & products energy & electricity building & construction healthcare & family retail & hospitality banking & finance ICT & cloud education &work city secure state scale nation laws social sciences behavioral sciences management sciences political sciences learning sciences cognitive sciences system sciences information sciences organization sciences decision sciences run professions transform professions innovate professions e.g., econ & law e.g., marketing e.g., operations e.g., public policy e.g., game theory and strategy e.g., psychology e.g., industrial eng. e.g., computer sci e.g., knowledge mgmt e.g., stats & design e.g., knowledge worker e.g., consultant e.g., entrepreneur stakeholders Customer Provider Authority Competitors resources People Technology Information Organizations change History (Data Analytics) Future (Roadmap) value Run Transform (Copy) Innovate (Invent) Starting Point 1: The Stackholders (As-Is) Starting Point 2: Their Resources (As-Is) Change Potential: Thinking (Has-Been & Might-Become) Value Realization: Doing (To-Be)
What is a Service System? What is Service Science? …customers just name <your favorite provider> …researchers just name <your favorite discipline> Economics & Law Design/ Cognitive Science Systems Engineering Operations Computer Science/ Artificial Intelligence Marketing “ a service system is a human-made system to improve customer-provider interactions, or value-cocreation between stakeholders” “ service science is the interdisciplinary study of service systems & value-cocreation”
Holistic ICT-enabled Service Systems <ul><li>Examples: Nations, States, Cities, Universities, Luxury Hotels, Cruise Ships, Households </li></ul><ul><li>Subsystems: Transportation, Water, Food, Energy, Communications, Buildings, Retail, Finance, Health, Education, Governance, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Definition: A service system that can support its primary populations, independent of all external service systems, for some period of time, longer than a month if necessary, and in some cases, indefinitely </li></ul><ul><li>Balance independence with interdependence, without becoming overly dependent </li></ul>Nation State/Province City/Region University Hospital Luxury Resort Hotels Family (household ) Person (professional )
<ul><li>A. Flow of things </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1. Transportation : Traffic congestion; accidents and injury </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2. Water : Access to clean water; waste disposal costs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3. Food : Safety of food supply; toxins in toys, products, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4. Energy : Energy shortage, pollution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5. Information : Equitable access to info and comm resources </li></ul></ul><ul><li>B. Human activity & development </li></ul><ul><ul><li>6. Buildings : Inefficient buildings, environmental stress (noise, etc.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>7. Retail : Access to recreational resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>8. Banking : Boom and bust business cycles, investment bubbles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>9. Healthcare : Pandemic threats; cost of healthcare </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10. Education : High school drop out rate; cost of education </li></ul></ul><ul><li>C. Governing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>11. Cities : Security and tax burden </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>12. States : Infrastructure maintenance and tax burden </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>13. Nations : Justice system overburdened and tax burden </li></ul></ul>Cities as Holistic Service Systems: All the systems Example: Singapore Population Challenges Careers Opportunities
Universities as Holistic Service Systems: All the systems <ul><li>A. Flow of things </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1. Transportation : Traffic congestion; parking shortages. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2. Water : Access costs; reduce waste </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3. Food : Safety; reduce waste. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4. Energy : Access costs; reduce waste </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5. Information : Cost of keeping up best practices. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>B. Human activity & development </li></ul><ul><ul><li>6. Buildings : Housing shortages; Inefficient buildings </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>7. Retail : Access and boundaries. Marketing. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>8. Banking : Endowment growth; Cost controls </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>9. Healthcare : Pandemic threat. Operations. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10. Education : Cost of keeping up best practices.. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>C. Governing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>11. Cities : Town & gown relationship. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>12. States : Development partnerships.. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>13. Nations : Compliance and alignment. </li></ul></ul>
Luxury Hotels as Holistic Service Systems: All the systems http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm7MeZlS5fo
Why Higher Ed Matters: % GDP and % Top 500 Strong Correlation (2009 Data): National GDP and University Rankings http://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html
Accelerating Innovation: Create Ideal or Reference Models Higher Education: Research Centers & Real-World Systems CITIES/METRO REGIONS: Universities Key to Long-Term Economic Development
Edu-Impact.Com “ When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”
Urban-Age.Net Currently, the world’s top 30 cities generate 80% of the world’s wealth. The Urban Age For the first time in history more than 50% the earth’s population live in cities - by 2050 it will be 75% The Endless City
<ul><li>Smarter Government </li></ul><ul><li>Smarter Local Government: What's being done... </li></ul><ul><li>Seeding the Local Government Community Cloud </li></ul><ul><li>Discussion – Next Steps </li></ul>Next Wave is ICT for Public Sector Thinking “Outside In” "We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." - Albert Einstein
There are now 6.8 Billion people on the planet… Source: National Geographic Society – “State of the Earth: 2010”
Systems carry inefficiencies of up to $15T... How to read the chart: As an example, the Healthcare system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From that level of 42% inefficiency, economists estimate that ~34% can be eliminated (= 34% x 42%). We now have the capabilities to manage a system-of-systems planet... Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480 (*Estimate) – Chart shows “systems”, not “industries. System inefficiency as % of total economic value Improvement potential as % of system inefficiency Education 1,360 Building & Transport Infrastructure 12,540 Healthcare 4,270 Government & Safety 5,210 Electricity 2,940 Financial 4,580 Food & Water 4,890 Transportation (Goods & Passenger) 6,950 Leisure / Recreation / Clothing 7,800 Communication 3,960 Analysis of inefficiencies in the planet‘s system-of-systems Note: Size of the bubble indicate absolute value of the system in USD Billions 42% 34% ...of which $4 Tn could be eliminated*.... Global economic value of System-of-systems $54 Trillion 100% of WW 2008 GDP Inefficiencies $15 Trillion 28% of WW 2008 GDP Improvement potential $4 Trillion 7% of WW 2008 GDP
The world will get smarter…because it must... 40-70 % of electrical energy is lost due to inefficiencies in the grid In one small business district in Los Angeles alone, cars burned 47,000 gallons of gasoline looking for parking Consume products and retail industries lose about $40 billion annually due to inefficient supply chains. In a world where people are undernourished, $48 billion worth of food is thrown away each year in the U.S. Our healthcare “system” can’t link from diagnosis to drug discovery, providers, insurers, employers and patients. Financial markets spread risk but can’t track it; this has lead to undermined confidence and uncertainty Weather-related events inflicted $1 trillion in damage from 1980-2003 Only 22% of reserves are extracted from the world’s existing oil wells. Global water usage has increased 6X since the 1900s. Today 1 in 5 people lacks safe drinking water. With poor urban governance, life expectancy within developing countries can be as low as 35 years. “ History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells
We need to build a smarter planet… … how can we start with smarter government ? Create a citizen-centered experience by improving citizen and business services. Embrace government transparency and accountability by managing resources effectively and efficiently. Possibilities to improve our quality of life and way of living + + = Instrumented Interconnected Intelligent
The reality of living in a globally integrated world... <ul><li>Governments in deficit worldwide – reduced revenues / spending cuts </li></ul><ul><li>Local governments particularly stressed by the revenue/cost of service gap </li></ul><ul><li>Growth in demand for government services is continual </li></ul><ul><li>Sources of revenue depend on economic activity </li></ul><ul><li>Information/device explosion </li></ul><ul><li>The “New Normal”... </li></ul>“ Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge
Looking to the Future: The “New Normal” Economic recession and future uncertainties Energy shortfalls and erratic commodity prices Slowing superpowers and emerging economies Complex value chains and empowered citizens “ ...the Great Recession that began in 2008 was not your grandmother’s standard recession. This was not just a deep economic slowdown that we can recover from and then blithely go back to our old ways—with just a little less leverage, a little less risk, and a little more regulation. No, this Great Recession was something much more important. It was our warning heart attack.” - Thomas Friedman – Hot, Flat and Crowded
Is government’s digital infrastructure ready? 70 ¢ 70% on average is spent on maintaining current IT infrastructures versus adding new capabilities. 82% 82% of executives expect some form of climate change regulation within 5 years. 59 59 countries or jurisdictions have or are considering mandatory cap and trade regulations. 2x Data center energy use doubling every 5 years 69X Storage growth will increase 69X this decade. 6X Server growth will increase 6X this decade. 78% 78% of data centers were built before the dot com era and are technically obsolete. 50% 50% of customers experience server or storage downtime as a direct result of power and cooling issues. 33% 33% of consumers notified of a security breach will terminate their relationship with the organization they perceived as responsible.
The way the world works is changing… and leaders must lead through the unknown... Gap between envisioned change and past success at managing it. Public sector leaders anticipate substantial change ahead. 23% 8 in 10 Source: 2008 IBM CEO Study (Before the Financial Crisis)
California Counties Population Density is in major metropolitan and coastal areas... Max Density: 9.3K / sq mile - CCSF Min Density: 2 / sq mile – Alpine County Avg Density: 240 / sq mile Recent suburban sprawl moving inland and replacing agricultural land – a disturbing trend for feeding Smarter Cities... Note the coastal counties from San Diego to Sonoma, which follow the California Mission Trail ( El Camino Real – 'The Royal Road'). All missions were roughly a day's ride apart. Most of the counties were named for the mission in their geography. Note further the central counties from San Francisco east to Lake Tahoe. Their formation follows the topology around major rivers coming from Sierra Nevada mountains - first for gold claims, then for water rights. Other counties reflect desert and mountain restrictions relative to topology, natural resource usage (agriculture) and population density
Local Governments: Cities & Counties Local Government is where the actual Service Delivery happens...both physically and digitally. Approximately 3,000 Counties in the US (Source: National Association of Counties - NACO) Approximately 20,000 Cities in the US (Source: League of Cities) US Census Data (2000): approximately 10K cities, 4.3K towns and 3.7K villages =18,000 63 of the 273 (23%) US cities over 100K population are in California – over 16M people 8 of the Top 50 cities (population) are in California 58 Counties and 480 Cities in California City and County of San Francisco the only combined local government Essential differentiator: Counties do not have revenue generation authority...they rely on the state for general fund revenues...counties can only exercise cost containment capabilities. “ Think global, act local.” – Patrick Geddes, early 1900's Midsized businesses represent about 65% of the global GDP and 90% of its workforce. - Harish Krishnamurthy, IBM VP GMU Midmarket
California the Unique <ul><li>California Budget Deficit for 2010/2011 = $21 Billion </li></ul><ul><li>California gets $0.78 in Fed funding for every $1 it pays the Federal govt (Rank: 43 of 50)* </li></ul><ul><li>California Budget Surplus if at federal tax parity = $68B ($313B - $224B - $21B) </li></ul><ul><li>Legislature approved taking back $1.9B from local governments in 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Counties do not have broad revenue generating authority like cities </li></ul><ul><li>Over 2300 special districts (Transit, Sewage, Pests, Libraries, Harbor, Healthcare, Parks, etc.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>85% single function – 293 Water Districts / 172 Fire Districts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Community Service Districts are multi-function. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Most populous state – 37 Million (2009 est) </li></ul><ul><li>Most ethnically diverse </li></ul><ul><li>8 th largest economy in the world (similar to Spain or Italy) </li></ul><ul><li>13% of US GDP – $1.85 Trillion </li></ul><ul><li>World's largest human migration – the Gold Rush </li></ul><ul><li>Leads nation in 75 crop and livestock commodities </li></ul><ul><li>Significant production of 250+ agricultural commodities </li></ul><ul><li>Provides over 50% of the vegetables, fruits and nuts in the USA </li></ul>“ Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper * http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/266.html
Local Government Collaboration for a Smarter Planet Contact: Mark Dixon (firstname.lastname@example.org) – STG Systems Architect – Public Sector Smarter Local Government Reinventing Local Government in California and the USA Smarter Government Smarter Water Smarter Analytics Smarter Cities Smarter Food Smarter Transportation Smarter Buildings Economics Innovation Integration
<ul><li>Thank-You! Questions? </li></ul>Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer Director, IBM University Programs (IBM UP) WW email@example.com “ Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM “ If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org “ Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU “ Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli “ The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson “ The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay “ Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer “ Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge “ History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells “ The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov “ Think global, act local.” – Geddes
Time ECOLOGY 14B Big Bang (Natural World) 10K Cities (Human-Made World) Sun writing (symbols and scribes) Earth written laws bacteria (uni-cell life) sponges (multi-cell life) money (coins) universities clams (neurons) tribolites (brains) printing press (books) steam engine Where is the “Real Science” in Service Science? In the sciences of the natural and human-made worlds… Evolving hierarchical-complexity of populations of things 200M bees (social division-of-labor) 60 transistor
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