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Jim spohrer return to nbic(s)2 20120626 v2

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NBIC(S) 2.0 = Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno-Social …

NBIC(S) 2.0 = Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno-Social
pronounced "Nib-Iks-Two-Oh"
Mike Roco
Bill Bainbridge
NSF

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  • Reference content from this presentation as: Spohrer, JC (2012) Return to the Planet of the NBIC(S) 2. Workshop on NBIC(S)2 – Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno-(Social)-2 Washington DC, USA, Tue June 26, 2012 Permission to redistribute granted upon request to spohrer@us.ibm.com This presentation is available on-line at: http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/future-of-cities-and-universities-20120619-v2 What’s New? SingularityU – John Smart Accelerating Change presentation at Singularity U http://www.authorstream.com/Presentation/Haylee-24168-SingEconomics4-04-Singularity-Economics-Institute-Accelerating-Change-Intro-Future-Studies-Problem-Predicti-as-Entertainment-ppt-powerpoint/
  • NBIC(S) 2.0 Pronounced as three syllables “Nib-Iks-Two-Oh” Social should always be there…. Info is not social, and Cogno is not social – collective human population is social… If the Social (“Augmented Collective”) Intelligence can think it. If the Cognitive Scientists can think it the Nano people can build it the Bio people can implement it, and the IT people can monitor and control it NBIC-1 http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/1/NBIC_overview.pdf If the Cognitive Scientists can think it the Nano people can build it the Bio people can implement it, and the IT people can monitor and control it
  • Need genes sequenced per second Need emails/IM per second Book Picture: http://wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/ Transistors: http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/speeches/barrett20010508.htm Craig Barrett: “This plot you're seeing now happens to be the number of transistors that are produced each year by our industry worldwide. And if you can't read the scale, I think it's something like about 200 quintillion transistors per year are produced. If you want to put that if perspective, that is roughly equal to every printed character, letter, A, B, C, or number that has been recorded in the history of mankind. So each year we make the same number of transistors as every character that man has written down in man's lifetime. And you can see that that number continues to grow at a logarithmic rate in terms of the increase and the average price per transistor continues to decrease the logarithmic rate. That's why you get the anti-inflationary nature of our industry in terms of bringing more capability for the same cost year upon year upon year.” http://www.future-fab.com/documents.asp?d_ID=1285 Transistors per person by 2008 In 1998, the worldwide industry produced about 2.1 billion transistors every second.
  • Not just IBM, not just GE, but whole US economy, and soon all the economies of the world…. Has to do with productivity increases in agriculture and goods (Amos Hawley, Human Ecology). But also capabilities increases in people. We observe services dominating the US and all the rest of the world economies – a major labor force migration is happening in part driven by Information Communication Technologies – OECD reports describe the connection. Service science is ultimately about understanding how to boost human-technology productivity via four types of innovation. Sources: http://www.nationmaster.com IBM Research
  • The goal is to get to what Engelbart has called facilitated coevolution – involving capabilities of the people, human systems (including organizations) and tool systems (including technology). From a services perspective – part of the coevolution is deciding what we do for ourselves (and hence what capabilities we need) and what we allow the rest of the system to do for us (and hence what capabilities need to come from the system). This constant rejiggering of capabilities between and amongst the three systems people, organizations, and technology is what generates the changes we sometimes call progress. Again service science will help boost productivity by accelerating our ability to have work systems absorb innovation – work systems seem to evolve through four stages – jobs are created and destroyed along the way, and that is one of the factors that must be factored in when designing innovative new ways to work. Source: IBM Research What could be called “theory Z” of work evolution is based on Doug Engelbart’s model of human system and tool system coevolution. Specialized new forms of work start out as collaborations of people, who over time developed specialized skills as well as incentives to tightly collaborate (1) Next they develop tools that allow more productivity as well as less skilled people to contribute to the work (2) Next, assuming sufficient demand for the product of the work, specialized organization form to do the work, and other people and organizations that want the work product can get it done by outsourcing it into a competitive economy (3) Finally, at some point one of the competitors figures out a way to automate the work, making the work a form of self service interacting with an automated service provider (4). Human intelligence is augmented by tools and organizations that “make us smarter” – from a services perspective, one can redistribute (“share”) work into the tool system or the human system, to a more (all) or lesser (some) degree. Collaborate: Skilled people Augment: Skilled people with tool Delegate: Specialized people in an organization that gets the business outsourced to them Automate: Client or user interacts with tool When the tool system does it all, that is automation – example ATM machine (use technology to advantage) When the human system does it all, that is outsourcing – example low cost call center businesses in India (use economy to advantage) When the tool system does some of the work, that is having capabilities augmented – example a calculator When the human system does some of the work, that is collaboration – example bonuses for cost saving ideas, incents people to share ideas. Many KM failures due to lack of incentive for sharing and knowledge reuse. When changing work, one needs to ask four key questions: Should we – is there demand and enough potential value to be created and captured (“make sure the goal has real value”) Can we – is it technologically feasible, and can processes be designed to accomplish the work (“make sure it can be done – a feasible plan”) May we – can any stakeholders block this, what incentive design could overcome this (“design a win-win game for all stakeholders – all player happy”) Will we – when staked up against other organizational priorities does the value justify the cost at this time (“is it the most important thing to accomplish now, can it wait”)
  • New collaboration technologies, organizations, and individual capabilities are key to the emergence of collective IQ. http://www.whozoo.org/mac/Music/foxp2.htm Book Author: Book Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0393317544/qid=1076830171/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/103-3454405-6368663?v=glance&s=books Author Picture: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~lhc/graphics/deacon.jpg Open Book Picture: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/1578518377/ref=sib_dp_pt/104-2997550-9638329#reader-link Open Book Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1578518377/qid=1077747330/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/104-2997550-9638329?v=glance&s=books Open Author Picture: http://hsa.net/cfe/images/profs/chesbrough.jpg Smart Mob Picture: http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0738208612.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg Smart Mob Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0738208612/qid=1077746430/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/104-2997550-9638329 Smart Mob Author Picture: http://www.cooltown.com/mpulse/graphics/0203-rheingold.jpg Book Info for Cathedral: Eric Raymond’s Home Page: http://www.catb.org/~esr/ http://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm Speech: The molecular components “ For the first time, a gene has been identified as responsible for a specific human language disorder. The gene encodes an unusual member of a family of proteins involved in embryogenesis, the Winged Helix/Forkhead transcription factors. Disruption of the FOXP2 gene appears to affect the brain at an early stage in development, leading to abnormality in neural structures important for speech and language.” http://www.nature.com/nature/links/011004/011004-4.html Amazon Editorial Reviews: Editorial Reviews Amazon.com Terrence Deacon's The Symbolic Species begins with a question posed by a 7-year-old child: Why can't animals talk? Or, as Deacon puts it, if animals have simpler brains, why can't they develop a simpler form of language to go with them? Thus begins the basic line of inquiry for this breathtakingly ambitious work, which attempts to describe the origins of human language and consciousness. What separates humans from animals, Deacon writes, is our capacity for symbolic representation. Animals can easily learn to link a sound with an object or an effect with a cause. But symbolic thinking assumes the ability to associate things that might only rarely have a physical correlation; think of the word "unicorn," for instance, or the idea of the future. Language is only the outward expression of this symbolic ability, which lays the foundation for everything from human laughter to our compulsive search for meaning. The final section of The Symbolic Species posits that human brains and human language have coevolved over millions of years, leading Deacon to the remarkable conclusion that many modern human traits were actually caused by ideas . Deacon's background in biological anthropology and neuroscience makes him a reliable companion through this complicated multidisciplinary turf. Rigorously researched and argued in dense but lively prose, The Symbolic Species is that rare animal, a book of serious science that's accessible to layman and scientist alike. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition. From Library Journal A neurologist and anthropologist with Harvard Medical School, Deacon considers why language is confined to humans and why no simple languages exist. He proposes that symbolic reference is both the defining feature of language and the principle cause for the expansion of the human profrontal cortex. This "evolutionary anomaly" has, in turn, given rise to a brain that is biased to use an associative learning process critical for language success. Deacon also suggests that human-reproduction... read more --This text refers to the Hardcover edition. Book Description This revolutionary book provides fresh answers to long-standing questions of human origins and consciousness. Drawing on his breakthrough research in comparative neuroscience, Terrence Deacon offers a wealth of insights into the significance of symbolic thinking: from the co-evolutionary exchange between language and brains over two million years of hominid evolution to the ethical repercussions that followed man's newfound access to other people's thoughts and emotions. Informing these insights is a new understanding of how Darwinian processes underlie the brain's development and function as well as its evolution. In contrast to much contemporary neuroscience that treats the brain as no more or less than a computer, Deacon provides a new clarity of vision into the mechanism of mind. It injects a renewed sense of adventure into the experience of being human.
  • One thing I’ll point out though that is slowing the emergence of collective IQ is that evolution of cellphone applications has not been as rapid as the evolution of internet applications – witness the lack of college kids with VC backing on cellphone applications compared with that of internet companies in the mid-90’s. I think that is about to change and I think the evolution of the iPod and RSS and the dark web and blogging may be part of it. Worldboard is my vision of the future of cellphones, and an acid test for whether college kids are empowered in the cellphone age or not. Books: Moschella’s Customer-Driven IT; (order Global Work by Johansen); Cohen’s Harnessing Complexity; Jefferson Independence, Stuart Kaufman At Home in the Universe; Remarkable Story of Risk, Creative Destruction, Future of Work Emergence Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0684868768/qid=1077748587/sr=2-3/ref=sr_2_3/104-2997550-9638329 Emergence Book: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0684868768/ref=sib_dp_pt/104-2997550-9638329#reader-link Emergence Author: http://www.oreillynet.com/pub/a/network/2002/02/22/johnson.html Connections Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1559270667/qid=1077749850/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/104-2997550-9638329 Connections Book: http://images.amazon.com/images/P/1559270667.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg Connections: Author: http://www.mun.ca/univrel/newsphotos/jburke.jpg Six: Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0393041425/qid=1077749183/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/104-2997550-9638329?v=glance&s=books Six Book: http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0393041425.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg Six Author: http://www.aip.org/aip/corporate/2000/duncan.jpg
  • Augment – what is most exciting to me is telerobotics – I recently heard about a remote controlled laundry folding robot – so you can outsource the service of laundry folding. Mars Rover Picture: http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/newsroom/pressreleases/20040116b.html Book Picture and Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/037572527X/103-3454405-6368663?v=glance Author Picture: http://www-lehre.informatik.uni-osnabrueck.de/~sbitzer/cyborgs/rodney_brooks.jpg Telesurgery Pictures and Text: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1552211.stm RatBot: http://www.wireheading.com/roborats/index.html Wednesday, 19 September, 2001, 14:01 GMT 15:01 UK Doctors claim world first in telesurgery The first major trans-Atlantic telesurgical operation has been carried out. Doctors in the United States removed a gall bladder from a patient in eastern France by remotely operating a surgical robot arm. The procedure could make it possible for a surgeon to perform an operation on a patient anywhere in the world. It lays the foundations for the globalisation of surgical procedures Professor Jacques Marescaux Doctors at the European Institute of Telesurgery in Strasbourg say the procedure was successful and there were no complications. The patient, a 68-year-old woman, was discharged two days after the operation. To operate on the patient in France, a surgeon working from New York controlled the arm of a surgical robot. Two medical teams were involved, linked by a video and a high-speed fibre-optic line. 'Safe' time lag A round distance of more than 14,000 kilometres (8,700 miles) separated the two medical teams. The time delay between the surgeon's movements and the return video image displayed on screen was less than 200 milliseconds. The estimated safe lag time is 330 ms. Professor Jacques Marescaux, who led the team, said the operation ushered in "the third revolution we've seen in the field of surgery in the past 10 years". "It lays the foundations for the globalisation of surgical procedures, making it possible to imagine that a surgeon could perform an operation on a patient anywhere in the world," he added. Step forward Telesurgery is of growing interest to the medical world. In June, patients at Rome's Policlinico Casilino University underwent minor telesurgery guided by experts at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, US. Fourteen patients were given a laparoscopy, where a small "telescope" was inserted into the body. Minor kidney surgery was then carried out on some of these patients. Details of the Strasbourg operation, which goes one step further, were revealed on Wednesday in the scientific journal Nature. http://www.mindjack.com/books/fleshmachines.html However, Brooks realizes that in such a system the human element is (still) not out of the loop, and that in order for it to work smoothly, and not disrupt the lives of those who rush to the airport and have work to do during the day, someone will have to remotely control the robot. The solution for this: developing countries where labor is cheap (and often quite qualified). Remote work as the killer application for robots in the short term. Brooks says, and I quote, The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote-presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor economies where no other work is available (146-147) There are at least two ways of interpreting this statement. Brooks may be a defender of the status quo, a pragmatist of sorts, and have no faith that the power relations, that keep the system running by forcing many entities to invisibility, can be changed. Brooks could also be an idealist, which is certainly not a fault, and believe that what he postulates above has a chance of becoming a reality. In any case, he is remarkably uninformed about the working conditions and lack of labour and safety regulations and working conditions which many workers in developing countries are exposed to. One can safely assume that he has not yet read Naomi Klein’s No Logo (2000), her exposé of the business practices of large corporations and the realities of outsourcing and sweatshops all over the world.
  • Delegate – what is exciting to me from a services evolution perspective (though it is not without pain in the US economy) is the growth of outsourcing – it is like massive parts of the human sociotechnical computer are all coming on line, and out services MIPS (millions of service interactions per second) are going way up as a result. Just heard about people outsourcing cartoons, and heart surgery. Picture India Call Center: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/23/60minutes/main590004.shtml Picture of Friedman: http://my.brandeis.edu/profiles/one-profile?profile_id=77 Text of Book: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0385499345/qid=1076826185/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/103-3454405-6368663?v=glance&s=books Picture of Friedman Book: http://www.allbookstores.com/covers/2/2/5/big0374185522.jpg Picture of Amartya Sen: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/nobel/a-sen-nobel.jpg Text of Book: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0385720270/qid=1076826924/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/103-3454405-6368663 Picture of Book: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0385720270/ref=sib_dp_pt/103-3454405-6368663#reader-link From Publishers Weekly When Sen, an Indian-born Cambridge economist, won the 1998 Nobel Prize for Economic Science, he was praised by the Nobel Committee for bringing an "ethical dimension" to a field recently dominated by technical specialists. Sen here argues that open dialogue, civil freedoms and political liberties are prerequisites for sustainable development. He tests his theory with examples ranging from the former Soviet bloc to Africa, but he puts special emphasis on China and India. How does one explain the recent gulf in economic progress between authoritarian yet fast-growing China and democratic, economically laggard India? For Sen, the answer is clear: India, with its massive neglect of public education, basic health care and literacy, was poorly prepared for a widely shared economic expansion; China, on the other hand, having made substantial advances in those areas, was able to capitalize on its market reforms. Yet Sen demolishes the notion that a specific set of "Asian values" exists that might provide a justification for authoritarian regimes. He observes that China's coercive system has contributed to massive famine and that Beijing's compulsory birth control policyAonly one child per familyAhas led to fatal neglect of female children. Though not always easy reading for the layperson, Sen's book is an admirable and persuasive effort to define development not in terms of GDP but in terms of "the real freedoms that people enjoy." (Sept.) Copyright 1999 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition. From Library Journal In his first book since winning the 1998 Nobel Prize for Economics, Sen (Trinity Coll., Cambridge) presents a decent summary of his thought. Advancing development as a method for expanding economicAand thus politicalAfreedom (he sees both as a means and an end) Sen recapitulates his studies of famine, poverty, life expectancy, mortality, and illiteracy in the Third World. A somewhat controversial choice for the Nobel Prize (since his focus on what is called "welfare economics," which makes human... read more --This text refers to the Hardcover edition. Book Description By the winner of the 1988 Nobel Prize in Economics, an essential and paradigm-altering framework for understanding economic development--for both rich and poor--in the twenty-first century. Freedom, Sen argues, is both the end and most efficient means of sustaining economic life and the key to securing the general welfare of the world's entire population. Releasing the idea of individual freedom from association with any particular historical, intellectual, political, or religious tradition, Sen clearly demonstrates its current applicability and possibilities. In the new global economy, where, despite unprecedented increases in overall opulence, the contemporary world denies elementary freedoms to vast numbers--perhaps even the majority of people--he concludes, it is still possible to practically and optimistically restain a sense of social accountability. Development as Freedom is essential reading.
  • Automate - The ultimate automation of manufacturing is lurking. Already metal parts for aircraft are being replicated. The cost of stereolithography or three-D printing is dropping. Perhaps by the end of this century we’ll see the realization of a type of utility fog. Manifest ideas into physical form. Pictures: http://www.materialise.be/prototypingsolutions/stereo_ENG.html Pictures:http://www.autofieldguide.com/articles/110309.html Picture of Author: http://www.engin.cf.ac.uk/whoswho/profile.asp?RecordNo=163 Picture of Author: http://www.engin.cf.ac.uk/whoswho/profile.asp?RecordNo=59 Picture of Book: Picture: Rat Skull: http://www.sciencenews.org/20030426/fob6.asp Picture: Printing Organs: http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99993292 Picture: Printing Gadgets: http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99993238 http://home.att.net/~rpml/p02b/p02b_460.htm 460. Rapid evolution: New materials and process improvements are stretching the boundaries of prototyping techniques. Author John DeGaspari Source Mechanical Engineering-CIME, March 2002 v124 i3 p48(5). Abstract In the roughly 15 years since it first hit the market, stereolithography has been joined by a host of other prototyping techniques, each carving out a niche with varying degrees of success. While material advancements are most evident in plastics, research is also taking place in metals and ceramics. One process that has seen developments in this area is stereolithography. The resins used in stereolithography are photosensitive thermosets that crosslink during the curing process, and are fundamentally different from the thermoplastics used in injection molding that they are designed to emulate. "Usually, these materials are good at matching a couple of mechanical properties, such as elastic modulus and yield strength," said Chuck Hull, chief technology officer of 3D Systems in Valencia, Calif., a supplier of stereolithography machines, selective laser sintering systems, and three-dimensional printers. He said that the industry has had some success in making resins that mimic polypropylene, a widel y used thermoplastic. He also expects stereolithography resin suppliers to continue to make progress in creating materials that have selected thermoplastic properties, which will drive specific applications. Other developments in stereolithography resins are adding to the fit and function capabilities of prototype parts. DSM Somos, based in New Castle, Del., recently introduced a line of WaterClear resins for building transparent prototype parts. The use of stereolithography resins to create master patterns for tooling for a secondary process, such as plastic injection molding or rubber molding, is the original and still dominant market application of the process. In December 2001, 3D Systems formed a joint venture with DSM Desotech called OptoForm LLC to develop a rapid prototyping process, called direct composite manufacturing, which uses photosensitive paste. Stratasys of Eden Prairie, Minn., a supplier of fused deposition modeling machines, is extending the range of thermoplastics used in its systems, an d Z Corp. of Burlington, Mass., is incorporating new pigments into its binders for its starch- and plaster-based materials resulting in brighter colors. RELATED ARTICLE: Stereolithography Cuts Its Teeth. A stereolithography application that has made the transition to rapid manufacturing is the Invisalign process, developed by Align Technology of Santa Clara, Calif., to manufacture teeth aligners, a clear plastic replacement for wire braces. The process is an example of stereolithography used for mass customization. Also see: http://www.findarticles.com/cf_dls/m1511/2_21/59164975/p1/article.jhtml Behold, the 3-D Fax! Discover , Feb, 2000, by Brad Lemley Machines that turn ideas into objects are reshaping everything from Camrys to computers NO SCIENCE FICTION NOVEL IS COMPLETE WITHOUT an appearance of the universal thing-maker. Whether it's called a fabricator, a replicator, or a Mark-12 Hyperduplicator, the basic idea is always the same: a gadget that miraculously creates or copies any object the protagonist desires. The fictional thing-maker may be an abused plot device, but a real one, linked to the Internet and nestled between the microwave and the blender, would be the most exciting domestic appliance ever. Need a comb, a Ken doll, an exhaust manifold for a 1967 Ford Fairlane? Download it. Need another cue stick, fondue fork, crystal vase? Copy it. This fantasy is not as farfetched as it sounds. Three-dimensional printers--known in the industrial world as solid-imaging machines--are already here in nascent form, transforming the way products are designed. Once the first home models arrive, in a decade or so, consumer culture may never be the same. "Your children's children will print their own toys," predicts Mervyn Rudgley; senior director of business development for 3D Systems of Valencia, California, the first and largest company in the field. Charles Hull, founder of 3D Systems, expects the technology will eventually lead to the ultimate in on-line shopping: goods delivered directly into the customer's living room. Hull cooked up the first solid-imaging system in 1984 in a back-room lab while working for a company in San Gabriel, California, that made ultraviolet lamps. Some of the lamps were used to treat special coatings that harden when exposed to ultraviolet light. By extending the process, Hull realized, he could make solid objects from light-cured plastics. Laboring long nights and weekends, he finally persuaded a computer-guided light beam to dance in a precise pattern on the surface of a basin full of gooey polymer. After the jittering beam solidified a thin layer of plastic, a platform just below the surface dropped a fraction of a millimeter, submerging the layer under another coat of polymer, and the procedure repeated itself. Finally; with the topmost layer hardened, the platform rose dramatically, revealing Hull's first creation: a translucent, bluish, inch-tall cup. It still sits in his office. "It's crude," he says, "but it showed what was possible." Hull dubbed the process stereolithography, meaning roughly "printing in three dimensions." Though he's modest and soft-spoken, he knew he had a winner. "I had the sense right from the start that this would be a big industry With this, any shape you could design with a CAD [computer-aided design] program, you could make." When Hull unveiled his machine at a Detroit engineering show in 1987, designers snapped it up. Compared with traditional prototyping, which required artisans to carve wood, sculpt clay; or machine steel, stereolithography seemed miraculous. It could translate a computer model of a camshaft or vane stem into a three-dimensional prototype in hours rather than weeks. And a team in Tokyo could electronically send that model to a stereolithography machine in Tennessee, where collaborators could inspect a physical prototype and zap back instructions for revisions. Also see:http://www.autofieldguide.com/articles/110309.html Rapid Prototyping: Rapidly Getting Stronger When it comes to rapid prototyping (RP), there are a variety of available systems, but one statement holds true across them: “Materials are critical,” says Mervyn Rudgley, senior director for product development at 3D Systems (Valencia, CA). And when it comes to equipment, size matters, and for some, smaller is better. By Lawrence S. Gould , Contributing Editor This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block, and then let the engine run for about 80 hours to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear to have degraded at all. [Photo courtesy of Stratasys] Materials Only ProtoComposites, a family of rapid prototyping (RP) materials recently released by DSM Somos (New Castle, DE), a third-party supplier of RP materials, are mixtures of solids and liquids optimized for RP. Explains Michelle Wyatt, DSM account manager, “These are complex materials in which two or more distinct, complementary substances—especially metals, ceramics, glasses or polymers—combine to produce functional properties not possible using individual components.” For example, Somos ProtoTool from DSM, the first in the company’s line of commercially available ProtoComposite materials, is a silica-based resin. Its heat deflection temperature is greater than 517°F at 66 psi. Another new ProtoComposite, Somos SolidCast, is a hollow-spherically filled material with low-density investment casting pattern properties—a density that’s about half that of conventional resins. Large parts from SolidCast are lighter than those produced with conventional resins. Parts made from SolidCast have a wax-like appearance, a very low heavy-metals content (0.015%), and they require no internal drainage, holes to seal, nor pressure or vacuum testing of patterns. These materials are in addition to the popular DSM Somos 9100. Parts made from this material replicate polypropylene tensile strength and elongation at yield, and have good mechanical memory. This high-speed liquid photopolymer is a good, all-purpose material for prototyping interior automotive parts. The General Motors Technical Center uses 9100 exclusively. Chrysler uses that material, too. But note this: Compared to Somos 9100 series resins, DSM ProtoTool 20L has six times the flexural strength, 2.5 times the tensile strength, and up to 3.5 times the heat deflection temperature. This is one durable resin—one well suited for functional prototypes like impellers, pump housings, headlight reflectors, and wind tunnel test models. Unlike DSM, 3D Systems is an RP equipment supplier, too. 3D also has a broad selection of RP materials. For laser sintering RP, 3D has long offered a metal powder called LaserForm ST-100. Its green strength—the strength of material straight out of the machine before curing—was extremely low, explains 3D’s Mervyn Rudgley. You had to use a fine-haired bristle brush to clear the powder around a prototype made of this material. In December 2002, 3D announced LaserForm ST-200, which has about three times the green strength of ST-100. ST-200 has the characteristics of P20 steel. It is comprised of 420 stainless steel, which is sintered in the selective laser sintering (SLS) system. The sintered part is then infiltrated with bronze in an oven to produce a dense part or tool with complex geometries and intricate feature detail. Or tens of thousands of parts, even with aggressive injection molding materials. “Engineers will be able to design without the necessity to adapt their designs to the limitations of traditional manufacturing methods,” claims Rudgley. 3D is about to release another material for its Vanguard SLS system: LaserForm A6 steel. This material will be stronger still—hardness in the Rockwell C range. (The hardness of ST100 and ST200 are in the Rockwell B range.) A6 material is primarily for injection mold tooling applications. For stereolithography, 3D released last year its Accura line of materials. Accura SI 10 is a general-purpose material with a long vat life, high green strength, and high humidity resistance. SI 10 yields parts with a glossy top finish, and is well suited for thin-wall parts and for master patterns. SI 20 is a durable white material ideal for snap-fit testing and room temperature vulcanization (RTV) applications. SI 30 is a durable low-viscosity material with a fast photo speed. Last, SI 40 resists high temperatures and its toughness is akin to Nylon 6. Parts out of SI 40 feature optical clarity, high flexural modulus, and moderate elongation to break, with a high heat deflection temperature. “This material is ideal for automotive applications, including under-the-hood applications, wind tunnel testing, and flow analysis,” says Rudgley. Another material suitable for under-the-hood automotive applications comes from the other giant in RP: Stratasys (Eden Prairie, MN). PPSF (polyphenylsulfone) is extremely durable and remains strong at high temperatures. Its heat-deflection temperature of PPSF is 417°F at 66 psi and 405°F at 264 psi. This FDM material resists chemicals, acids, and petroleum products. PPSF is used in Stratasys FDM Titan, which can also use ABS plastic and polycarbonate. Smaller is popular Here’s a tidbit from Rudgley: Laser sintering machines are lying dormant. In fact, the use of RP machines across the board has gone down. This has nothing to do with RP technology and everything to do with the current economy. Several RP companies are targeting small prototyping applications, such as design shops and collaborative office situations—places where a communications tool is needed, says Rudgley, so that “instead of everybody staring at a complex drawing for 10 to 15 minutes trying to work out what they’re looking at, they can look at a 3D model.” The result is a rash of RP machines that are basically 3D versions of a standard 2D printer. These RP “printers” sit in an office, require no special training beyond what’s in the user’s manual, and they come with print drivers to load into any standard Windows-based computer. Solidimension Ltd. (Be’erot Itzhak, Israel) has its SD300 3D printer, which sells for about $30,000. The printer uses poly-vinyl chloride (PVC) to make prototypes. It is physically small (16 in. x 29.5 in., by 16.5 in. high) and weighs about 88 lb. with the resin cartridge installed. Parts from the printer can be as large as approximately 9.4 in. x 8 in. x 6 in. high. This printer works off computers running Microsoft Windows 98, 2000, and XP operating systems. Stratasys’ business unit Dimension (Eden Prairie, MN) offers the Dimension 3D printer, which also sells for less than $30,000. This RP printer also does not use any noxious materials and requires no venting or special facilities. It uses ABS materials to make parts (plus a break-away support system). Stratasys also recently inked a deal where it will be the sole distributor of Objet for all of North America. Objet, another Israeli firm, makes the Eden line of photopolymer inkjet machines. Objet’s Eden333 uses UV-cured photopolymers that come in front-loading cartridges to create models about 13.4 in. x 13 in. x 7.9 in. and with super-fine features and surface finishes. The printer, which costs roughly $115,000, is 52 in. wide by 39 in. deep by 47 in. high and weighs 900 lb. For the same target market, 3D Systems has ThermoJet, which costs about $50,000. The latest in that family is Envision, which uses a UVHM material (Ultraviolet Hot Melt) called VisiJet. This is a UV-curable acrolate plastic, not the hot-melt wax jetted through ThermoJet. Each time the Envision print head builds three layers out of UVHM, the machine automatically pushes the part into something like a darkroom. There, a flash-flood UV light cures the layers. Wax provides support, but that melts away when the model is put into an oven at about 160°F. The resulting prototype, says Rudgley, “is a cross between a ThermoJet model and a stereolithography prototype.” In terms of rigidity, the prototype has a material strength about 10 times that of those from ThermoJet, but about a quarter to a third of the strength of the parts made from stereolithography. It’s all about manufacturing “The ultimate goal is to avoid the tooling process and go directly into manufacturing,” says Wyatt. Some industries are already doing this. Boeing, says Rudgley, uses laser sintering plastic to make the air ducts for F18 fighter jets. These ducts are honest-to-goodness, single-piece production parts, with twists and turns and fins inside. Made the conventional way, Boeing would have to make four or five parts for assembly. DSM’s Michelle Wyatt points out that some of the high-end automobiles have very limited production runs. “Using RP to produce some of the automotive parts could save a significant amount of cost.” Also see: http://www.plasticsnews.net/get_vis/459.html (better materials – ceramics)
  • In the future, robots will build and recycle whole buildings in a matter of hours. Already at Dongting lake in the Hunan Province in China, the Broad group has used prefab architecture to construct a 30 story building in 15 days (360 hours). When robots are used for construction and recycling, it will be even faster and more cost efficient. The building was stronger, safer, and more energy efficient than previous Broad group hotels. We often think of resiliency as the ability to recover very quickly, after a natural disaster or other external shock to a system. In the future resiliency will be more about rebuilding and recycling quickly to take advantage of newer and better materials, and ways of doing things. The external shocks to the system will more often than not be new innovations, not natural disasters… Headline: 30 stories in 15 days (story on Jan 10 th 2012 – built on Dec 31 2011) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/10/30-story-hotel-constructed-in-15-days_n_1197991.html
  • Imagine cars and other products, being part of local physical supply chains. Manufacturing as a local recycling and assembly service Headline: TEDx Boston, Ryan Chin Urban Mobility (July 28, 2009) http://tedxboston.org/speaker/chin
  • In the future, robots will drive most of the cars – faster, safer, and more economically than people can. Of course, the future is already here, it is just not well distributed. The state of Nevada was the first state to allow self-driving vehicles to legally drive on their roads, as of June 22, 2011. http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2011/06/22/nevada-passes-law-authorizing-driverless-cars/ Headline: Robot Car Helps Blind Man Get a Taco March 29th, 2012 http://www.robotshop.com/blog/robot-car-helps-blind-man-get-a-taco-1564 Self-Driving Car Test – Steve Mahan
  • Transportation is essential for flows and buildings are essential for human development Headline: TEDx Boston, Ryan Chin Urban Mobility (July 28, 2009) http://tedxboston.org/speaker/chin
  • Cities are about 2% of the land area, with 50% of the popuoation and 75% of the energy consumption, and 80% of the carbon emissions, according to Carolo Ratti who heads MIT Senseable Cities at MIT Media Lab. Of course, while the buildings and transportation in cities are important – what is really important are the people…. Headline: TED talk: Carlo Ratti (MIT) Architecture that senses and resonds http://www.ted.com/talks/carlo_ratti_architecture_that_senses_and_responds.html
  • Service systems and knowledge access evolving Nested, networked holistic product-service systems that provide “Whole Service” to the people-inside Source: Whole Service http://www.service-science.info/archives/1056 Source: Third Stream http://www2.lse.ac.uk/economicHistory/Research/CCPN/pdf/russell_report_thirdStream.pdf
  • What are the largest and smallest service system entities that have the problem of interconnected systems? Holistic Service Systems like nations, states, cities, and universities – are all system of systems dealing with flows, development, and governance. =============\\ Nations (~100) States/Provinces (~1000) Cities/Regions (~10,000) Educational Institutions (~100,000) Healthcare Institutions (~100,000) Other Enterprises (~10,000,000) Largest 2000 >50% GDP WW Families/Households (~1B) Persons (~10B) Balance/Improve Quality of Life, generation after generation GDP/Capita Quality of Service Customer Experience Quality of Jobs Employee Experience Quality of Investment-Opportunities Owner Experience Entrepreneurial Experience Sustainability GDP/Energy-Unit % Fossil % Renewable GDP/Mass-Unit % New Inputs % Recycled Inputs
  • Because nations compete and cooperate, they can be studied as abstract entities (service systems) learning to apply knowledge to co-create value with other nations. Why service scientists are interested in universities…. They are in many ways the service system of most central importance to other service systems… Graph based on data from Source: http://www.arwu.org/ARWUAnalysis2009.jsp Analysis: Antonio Fischetto and Giovanna Lella (URome, Italy) students visiting IBM Almaden Dynamic graphy based on Swiss students work: http://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html US is still “off the chart” – China projected to be “off the chart” in less than 10 years: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 30,3 % US % of WW GDP: 23,3 % Correlating Nation’s (2004) % of WW GDP to % of WW Top-Ranked Universities US is literally “off the chart” – but including US make high correlation even higher: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 33,865 % US % of WW GDP: 28,365 %
  • Before we talk about the future of technology…. We should remember rules matter a lot too…. How we design systems matters….. Both how we design the technology & the rules (or institutions we live in) matters a lot… It matters for four key measures of systems – innovativeness, equity, sustainability, and resiliency… Societal performance on these four measures depends on technology (infrastructure), rules (institutions), skills (individuals), and what we value interms of quality of life (information)… Why are these people smiling? Every year NFL (National Football League) teams select the best new college players who indicate they are eligible for the NFL Draft…. Stanford’s quarterback Andrew Luck is one the best from 2011 What’s interesting is the Indianapolis Colts, the team he will play for the next decade, is one of the worst Source: http://www.rgj.com/viewart/20120426/SPORTS/304260061/NFL-draft-Colts-take-Stanford-QB-Andrew-Luck-open-draft http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_Draft
  • Ready for Life-Long-Learning Ready for Teamwork Ready to Help Build a Smarter Planet T-shaped people are ready for Teamwork – they are excellent communicators, with real world experience, and deep (or specialized) in at least one culture, one discipline and one systems area, but with good team work skills interacting with others who are deep in other cultures, disciplines and systems areas. Also, T-shaped professionals also make excellent entrepreneurs, able to innovate with others to create new technology, business, and societal innovations. T-shaped people are adaptive innovators, and well prepared for life-long learning in case they need to become deep in some new area… they are better prepared than I-shaped people, who lack the breadth. Therefore, IBM and other public and private organizations are looking to hire more of this new kind of skills and experience profile – one that is both broad and deep.. These organizations have been collaborating with universities around the world to establish a new area of study known as service science, management, engineering, and design (SSMED) – to prepare computer scientists, MBAs, industrial engineers, operations research, management of information systems, systems engineers, and students of many other discipline areas – to understand better how to work on multidisciplinary teams and attack the grand challenge problems associated with improving service systems…
  • Disciplines – what new disciplines will emerge? Dye industry and chemistry. Business services and service science (maybe). As change accelerates what new academic disciplines may appear? Some say businesses are the fasting evolving entities on the planet, and one wonders if academic institutions (slower evolvers) can keep up with the need for workers with new skills given the rate at which academic disciplines are born… How will new disciplines coevolve with businesses and national policy to stimulate high skill, high pay jobs in the service sector? Murmann, in his book Knowledge and Competitive Advantage: The coevolution of firms, technology, and national institutions, explores this type of coevolution in the context of the German dye industry in the mid to late 1800’s as innovation in chemistry drove huge industrial growth in Germany. Today, instead of dyes, a rapidly growing sector of the economy is business to business services aimed at enterprise transformation – academic institutions are beginning to respond to the need for more research and more graduates in this area – graduates who combine technology-business-and-work/organizational change expertise - for example, Georgia Tech just established the Tennenbaum Institute of Enterprise Transformation. This talk explores accelerating change from the perspective of the coevolution of business-technology-work innovation, and offers service science, an emerging multidiscipline, that could further accelerate organizational change. Book image source: http://bookweb.kinokuniya.co.jp/bimgdata/FC0521813298.JPG
  • First, I’ll briefly summarize what we all already know about accelerating change at a macroscale. Second, I’ll briefly describe what a lot of people don’t know about, which is the dramatic growth of the service sector and the emergence of the new discipline – though a lot of people, even when they see the dramatic growth in services have to ask “so what?” – didn’t know it, now I know it, but I don’t see why it is especially interesting – maybe even agree with Smith or Clark. Interesting though, that IBM makes 50% of its revenue from services, and GE is 70% services revenue, whereas 20 years ago they were just 15% services revenue. So why are all these manufacturing companies being transformed into services businesses? Colin Clark (1957) Conditions for Economic Growth. Notes that “It was an outstanding error on Adam Smith’s part to attempt to exclude services from his definition of real national product. This exclusion, together with other obsolete doctrine, persisted in the Soviet definition of national income until Stalin…” So third, I’ll try to shed some light on why this is interesting, in particular if we can start designing rather than evolving complex human cultural systems. Essentially, this could be a shift similar to the shift from selective breeding to get new crops and herds to genetic engineering to get new crops and herds – one approach relies on gently guiding evolution through selection and the other relies on design at a more fundamental level that gets closer to the underlying causality of change.
  • Story – amazing story of change. What does future hold? probably worldboard and utility fog. But, what drives change? The human story is only about 1% of 1% of the universe story (order of magnitude about 2 millions years of human history in the 12-20 billion year history of the universe). And, each of our lives is less than 1% of 1% of human story (order of magnitude about 100 years in an individual human life in about 1 to 2 million years of human history). What are the key drivers of accelerating change? Simply put more people, more technologies, and more organizations. (the next slide tries to capture that visually) After people, it appears to be cultural evolution or simply put, more people interacting with each other mediated by more networks of technologies and organizations. Prior to people, it appears that biological evolution is one key driver, though prior to DNA it seems to be some mysterious edge of chaos stuff that no one has fully and clearly articulated yet. Source: Book Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0471419192/qid=1077018032/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/103-3454405-6368663?v=glance&s=books Author Picture: http://www.rlg.org/annmtg/bloom.jpg Picture of Book: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0471419192/ref=sib_dp_pt/103-3454405-6368663#reader-link
  • Drivers of change in today’s world --- Simply put, more people working, more technology innovation to boost productivity, more organizations, especially investment and growth oriented organizations we know as the modern managerial firm. In the past 12,000 years the human population has expanded from about five million people worldwide to over six billion people. An estimated 100 billion humans have lived in the whole of human history. So about 6% of all the people who have ever lived, are alive today. Only in the last 200 years have modern managerial firms arisen supported by a variety of services such as communication, transportation, utilities, government services, greatly expanding retail services in the process. Chart: 6 Billion Human Beings: An exhibit from the Musée de l'Homme Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris –France http://www.popexpo.net/english.html Book Picture: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0674940520/ref=sib_dp_pt/103-3454405-6368663#reader-link Book Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0674940520/qid=1077018927/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/103-3454405-6368663?v=glance&s=books Author Picture:
  • IBM story – my job because IBM is 50% services in less than a decade and Research needed to be better engaged in service innovation (hadn’t coevolved yet with the rest of the business).
  • Not just IBM, not just GE, but whole US economy, and soon all the economies of the world…. Has to do with productivity increases in agriculture and goods (Amos Hawley, Human Ecology). But also capabilities increases in people. We observe services dominating the US and all the rest of the world economies – a major labor force migration is happening in part driven by Information Communication Technologies – OECD reports describe the connection. Service science is ultimately about understanding how to boost human-technology productivity via four types of innovation. Sources: http://www.nationmaster.com IBM Research
  • Easiest to see the relationship between human capability (productivity) increases and service economy growth, if you look at it like Amartya Sen did in terms of removing “unfreedoms” – lack of health is an unfreedom, lack of education is an unfreedom, lack of basic human rights is an unfreedom, and services government, education, healthcare and others remove unfreedoms by enhancing the capabitiies of both individuals and nations. Services transform the states of things, while preserving the identity of the thing transformed or enhanced. Services are most often coproduced, requiring the client to decide what part they do (responsible for) and what part the provider does (responsible for). Service very fundamental to entity-system coevolution phenomena. Services transform the state of products, people, businesses, and processes. The transformations are the co-production of a service provider and a client. For example, in medicine the patient must often perform diet and exercise changes to get well. In education, the student must expend effort to learn from the teacher. A business must change its processes to work with a business service provider to deploy technology in the organization. Basic services transform fundamental properties: location (transportation) and ownership (retail) Sophisticated services transform capabilities: purchase power (financing) and knowledge (education) Service providers specialize to perform a service at lower cost and higher quality than one could do alone. Services exist in all modern economies. Only in an agrarian economy, in which all families are self sufficient, and independent of each other, can one find a society with no services component. Services arise whenever the decision is made to allow someone else to do some portion of work/activity for you (shared responsibility), in exchange for a fee. The service provider can typically perform the service at lower cost and higher quality due to specialization of effort and specialization of skills. In modern times, services arise around products, especially complex products where the manufacturer provides financing, maintenance, operating assistance, etc. Some of the most ancient services were healthcare and education as well as protection and legal (public administration). Why the recent rapid growth in services? Clark-Fisher Hypothesis – as productivity increases in one sector, the labor force migrates to another. Amos H. Hawley (1986) Human Ecology. Chicago Press. States that in human populations that (1) adaptation proceeds through the formation of interdependencies among the members of a population; (2) system development continues, ceteris paribus, to the maximum size and complexity afforded by the technology for transportation and communication possessed by a population; (3) system development is resumed with the acquisition of new information that increases the capacity for movement of material, people, and messages and continues until the enlarged capacity is fully utilized. Colin Clark (1957) Conditions for Economic Growth. Notes that “It was an outstanding error on Adam Smith’s part to attempt to exclude services from his definition of real national product. This exclusion, together with other obsolete doctrine, persisted in the Soviet definition of national income until Stalin…” From Fitzsimmons and Fitzsimmons (2001) Services Management. McGraw Hill, NY. 3 rd Edition “ Services lie at the very hub of economic activity in any society. Writing about the role of the service sector in world development, Dorothy Riddle formulated the economic model shown in Figure 1.1. This model shows the flow of activity among the three principle sectors of the economy: extractive (mining and farming), manufacturing, and service, which is divided into five subgroups. All activity eventually leads to the consumer. Examples of services in each of the five subgroups are: Business services. Consulting, finance, banking Trade services. Retailing, maintenance, repair Infrastructure services. Communications, transportation Social/personal services. Restaurants, healthcare Public administration. Education, government
  • For those that prefer differential equations to squishy terms like freedom, Solow provides DEQ that say the same thing…. Growth of capabilities comes from more workers, with better tools, and better organizations that have profits to invest in creating new innovations. In simple terms, Solow might say the things that make us smart are the six billion potential laborers on earth today (enormous capability to produce or achieve goals), the cumulative capital assets produced by the hundred billion humans who have every lived, and our current capabilities for creating new technologies (capabilities) to improve the productive efficiency of everyone and everything that exists. Jim March might say that L and K are doing things the way they’re done now (exploitation) and that I is about looking for new ways to do things (exploration). Of course, L & K could be applied to “normal” ways of doing exploration – for example, universities. I is about innovation and investment. Graph: http://www.macalester.edu/~ferderer/ http://www.itam.mx/lames/papers/invitses/hanseng.pdf Author Picture: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/nobel/robert.solow.jpg Book Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/listmania/list-browse/-/3ITRP78BDVN7J/qid=1076859419/sr=5-1/ref=sr_5_1/103-3454405-6368663 Book Picture: http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0195109031.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg Good books: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/listmania/list-browse/-/3ITRP78BDVN7J/qid=1076859419/sr=5-1/ref=sr_5_1/103-3454405-6368663 Review: Editorial Reviews Synopsis Exogenous growth: growing or originating from outside, a growth model that takes the rate of growth as a given (coming from the outside model). Endogenous growth: growing or originating from within, a growth model that explains the rate of growth from within the model itself. In the preface to the first edition the author writes: "I have tried to give some feeling for the scope of aggregate theory of growth, a notion of the technical details, and some idea of the directions in which future research is, likely to go." This second edition begins with the author's Nobel Prize Lecture "Growth Theory and After" (1987) followed by the original six chapters of the first edition. Book Description Growth Theory presents a concise survey of the modern macroeconomic theory of growth. This new edition includes six lectures presented in the Summer of 1992 at the University of Siena and includes a new chapter where Solow charts the changes in growth theory from 1969 to the present.
  • Increasingly large amounts of evidence support what we already know – investment in IT drives productivity growth. However, IT sales increasingly require ROI case development as well as organizational change case development. Changing the engine while the car is going down the highway at higher and higher speeds. There is a good correlation between the four parts of the service sector that spend the most on IT and improvements in productivity – for example , the financial & information part of the service sector spends the most on IT (36% or over a third of all IT spend) and has the highest CAGR for labor productivity (4.4% CAGR, compared to 3.5% CAGR for all services). Source: IT Spend Total - Gartner WW IT Spend Industry Report (December 2003) IT Spend BPTS - IBM CHQ BPTS MI Report (August 2004) Jobs - http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.t01.htm GDP - http://www.bea.gov/bea/industry/gpotables/gpo_action.cfm?anon=40580&table_id=2920&format_type=0 CAGR - http://www.investopedia.com/calculator/CAGR.aspx WW IT spend and CAGR for Labor productivity appear correlated.
  • Service economy is splitting into a largely B2C experience economy part and largely B2B transformation economy part. Pines and Gilmore do a nice job of summarizing the economic distinctions in the economy, and the evolution of value growth to services, and then beyond commodity services to the experience economy (consumer services ++) and the transformation economy (business services ++). Business and professional services are the second fastest growing part of the service sector (2.7% CAGR on labor versus 2.8% CAGR on labor growth for health and education; 5.7% CAGR for revenue growth versus 6.0% CAGR for government). Sources: Book Image: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0875848192/ref=sib_dp_pt/104-5056684-8349508#reader-link Author Image: http://www.tians.org/Conference/pine.jpg, http://www.eaglestalent.com/ talent2.asp?ID=636 Pine II, B. Joseph and Gilmore, James H. (1999) The Experience Economy. Harvard Business School Press: Boston. Figure based on Table 9-1 on page 170. Modified to consider Experience and Transformation as types of services, with experience more relevant to consumers (B2C) and transformation more relevant to businesses (B2B).
  • IBM helped create computer science in the 1950’s and now we are working to create service science – bottom line, can’t just sell technology, have to sell reengineered process, ROI business case for best use of capital, and organizational change and strategy business case for costs of transforming the human and social capital of the organization. IBM has many skills in our IGS group, and service science will improve communications and productivity of service professionals, as well as define a research agenda for service innovation. But you may not know that IBM helped establish computer science departments in the 50’s and 60’s… And you probably don’t know that IBM is working now to establish something called service science departments at universities… It is a multidiscipline combining people, technology, and business value. The main thing slowing technology adoption is our ability to create effective organizational change that drives value fast enough for all the stakeholders affected by the change. We must overcome that limitation. Hank Chesbrough will be teaching the first explicitly named “Service Science” course at Berkeley next spring along with Bob Glusko. On Sept 27 th Financial Times published a short piece by Hank on this topic – notice the service science book the student is reading…
  • Emergence of service science means – we are noticing it happening, even if we did nothing… but since we need it, and we’ve noticed it happening, what can we do to accelerate change? We’ve survey the existing disciplines that relate to service science an noticed an interesting pattern, the more modern disciplines and courses have a better balance between people, technology, and business value issues. Service Science is at the center of the bull’s eye. Source: IBM Research
  • The goal is to get to what Engelbart has called facilitated coevolution – involving capabilities of the people, human systems (including organizations) and tool systems (including technology). From a services perspective – part of the coevolution is deciding what we do for ourselves (and hence what capabilities we need) and what we allow the rest of the system to do for us (and hence what capabilities need to come from the system). This constant rejiggering of capabilities between and amongst the three systems people, organizations, and technology is what generates the changes we sometimes call progress. Again service science will help boost productivity by accelerating our ability to have work systems absorb innovation – work systems seem to evolve through four stages – jobs are created and destroyed along the way, and that is one of the factors that must be factored in when designing innovative new ways to work. Source: IBM Research What could be called “theory Z” of work evolution is based on Doug Engelbart’s model of human system and tool system coevolution. Specialized new forms of work start out as collaborations of people, who over time developed specialized skills as well as incentives to tightly collaborate (1) Next they develop tools that allow more productivity as well as less skilled people to contribute to the work (2) Next, assuming sufficient demand for the product of the work, specialized organization form to do the work, and other people and organizations that want the work product can get it done by outsourcing it into a competitive economy (3) Finally, at some point one of the competitors figures out a way to automate the work, making the work a form of self service interacting with an automated service provider (4). Human intelligence is augmented by tools and organizations that “make us smarter” – from a services perspective, one can redistribute (“share”) work into the tool system or the human system, to a more (all) or lesser (some) degree. Collaborate: Skilled people Augment: Skilled people with tool Delegate: Specialized people in an organization that gets the business outsourced to them Automate: Client or user interacts with tool When the tool system does it all, that is automation – example ATM machine (use technology to advantage) When the human system does it all, that is outsourcing – example low cost call center businesses in India (use economy to advantage) When the tool system does some of the work, that is having capabilities augmented – example a calculator When the human system does some of the work, that is collaboration – example bonuses for cost saving ideas, incents people to share ideas. Many KM failures due to lack of incentive for sharing and knowledge reuse. When changing work, one needs to ask four key questions: Should we – is there demand and enough potential value to be created and captured (“make sure the goal has real value”) Can we – is it technologically feasible, and can processes be designed to accomplish the work (“make sure it can be done – a feasible plan”) May we – can any stakeholders block this, what incentive design could overcome this (“design a win-win game for all stakeholders – all player happy”) Will we – when staked up against other organizational priorities does the value justify the cost at this time (“is it the most important thing to accomplish now, can it wait”)
  • New collaboration technologies, organizations, and individual capabilities are key to the emergence of collective IQ. http://www.whozoo.org/mac/Music/foxp2.htm Book Author: Book Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0393317544/qid=1076830171/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/103-3454405-6368663?v=glance&s=books Author Picture: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~lhc/graphics/deacon.jpg Open Book Picture: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/1578518377/ref=sib_dp_pt/104-2997550-9638329#reader-link Open Book Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1578518377/qid=1077747330/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/104-2997550-9638329?v=glance&s=books Open Author Picture: http://hsa.net/cfe/images/profs/chesbrough.jpg Smart Mob Picture: http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0738208612.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg Smart Mob Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0738208612/qid=1077746430/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/104-2997550-9638329 Smart Mob Author Picture: http://www.cooltown.com/mpulse/graphics/0203-rheingold.jpg Book Info for Cathedral: Eric Raymond’s Home Page: http://www.catb.org/~esr/ http://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm Speech: The molecular components “ For the first time, a gene has been identified as responsible for a specific human language disorder. The gene encodes an unusual member of a family of proteins involved in embryogenesis, the Winged Helix/Forkhead transcription factors. Disruption of the FOXP2 gene appears to affect the brain at an early stage in development, leading to abnormality in neural structures important for speech and language.” http://www.nature.com/nature/links/011004/011004-4.html Amazon Editorial Reviews: Editorial Reviews Amazon.com Terrence Deacon's The Symbolic Species begins with a question posed by a 7-year-old child: Why can't animals talk? Or, as Deacon puts it, if animals have simpler brains, why can't they develop a simpler form of language to go with them? Thus begins the basic line of inquiry for this breathtakingly ambitious work, which attempts to describe the origins of human language and consciousness. What separates humans from animals, Deacon writes, is our capacity for symbolic representation. Animals can easily learn to link a sound with an object or an effect with a cause. But symbolic thinking assumes the ability to associate things that might only rarely have a physical correlation; think of the word "unicorn," for instance, or the idea of the future. Language is only the outward expression of this symbolic ability, which lays the foundation for everything from human laughter to our compulsive search for meaning. The final section of The Symbolic Species posits that human brains and human language have coevolved over millions of years, leading Deacon to the remarkable conclusion that many modern human traits were actually caused by ideas . Deacon's background in biological anthropology and neuroscience makes him a reliable companion through this complicated multidisciplinary turf. Rigorously researched and argued in dense but lively prose, The Symbolic Species is that rare animal, a book of serious science that's accessible to layman and scientist alike. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition. From Library Journal A neurologist and anthropologist with Harvard Medical School, Deacon considers why language is confined to humans and why no simple languages exist. He proposes that symbolic reference is both the defining feature of language and the principle cause for the expansion of the human profrontal cortex. This "evolutionary anomaly" has, in turn, given rise to a brain that is biased to use an associative learning process critical for language success. Deacon also suggests that human-reproduction... read more --This text refers to the Hardcover edition. Book Description This revolutionary book provides fresh answers to long-standing questions of human origins and consciousness. Drawing on his breakthrough research in comparative neuroscience, Terrence Deacon offers a wealth of insights into the significance of symbolic thinking: from the co-evolutionary exchange between language and brains over two million years of hominid evolution to the ethical repercussions that followed man's newfound access to other people's thoughts and emotions. Informing these insights is a new understanding of how Darwinian processes underlie the brain's development and function as well as its evolution. In contrast to much contemporary neuroscience that treats the brain as no more or less than a computer, Deacon provides a new clarity of vision into the mechanism of mind. It injects a renewed sense of adventure into the experience of being human.
  • One thing I’ll point out though that is slowing the emergence of collective IQ is that evolution of cellphone applications has not been as rapid as the evolution of internet applications – witness the lack of college kids with VC backing on cellphone applications compared with that of internet companies in the mid-90’s. I think that is about to change and I think the evolution of the iPod and RSS and the dark web and blogging may be part of it. Worldboard is my vision of the future of cellphones, and an acid test for whether college kids are empowered in the cellphone age or not. Books: Moschella’s Customer-Driven IT; (order Global Work by Johansen); Cohen’s Harnessing Complexity; Jefferson Independence, Stuart Kaufman At Home in the Universe; Remarkable Story of Risk, Creative Destruction, Future of Work Emergence Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0684868768/qid=1077748587/sr=2-3/ref=sr_2_3/104-2997550-9638329 Emergence Book: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0684868768/ref=sib_dp_pt/104-2997550-9638329#reader-link Emergence Author: http://www.oreillynet.com/pub/a/network/2002/02/22/johnson.html Connections Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1559270667/qid=1077749850/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/104-2997550-9638329 Connections Book: http://images.amazon.com/images/P/1559270667.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg Connections: Author: http://www.mun.ca/univrel/newsphotos/jburke.jpg Six: Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0393041425/qid=1077749183/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/104-2997550-9638329?v=glance&s=books Six Book: http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0393041425.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg Six Author: http://www.aip.org/aip/corporate/2000/duncan.jpg
  • Augment – what is most exciting to me is telerobotics – I recently heard about a remote controlled laundry folding robot – so you can outsource the service of laundry folding. Mars Rover Picture: http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/newsroom/pressreleases/20040116b.html Book Picture and Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/037572527X/103-3454405-6368663?v=glance Author Picture: http://www-lehre.informatik.uni-osnabrueck.de/~sbitzer/cyborgs/rodney_brooks.jpg Telesurgery Pictures and Text: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1552211.stm RatBot: http://www.wireheading.com/roborats/index.html Wednesday, 19 September, 2001, 14:01 GMT 15:01 UK Doctors claim world first in telesurgery The first major trans-Atlantic telesurgical operation has been carried out. Doctors in the United States removed a gall bladder from a patient in eastern France by remotely operating a surgical robot arm. The procedure could make it possible for a surgeon to perform an operation on a patient anywhere in the world. It lays the foundations for the globalisation of surgical procedures Professor Jacques Marescaux Doctors at the European Institute of Telesurgery in Strasbourg say the procedure was successful and there were no complications. The patient, a 68-year-old woman, was discharged two days after the operation. To operate on the patient in France, a surgeon working from New York controlled the arm of a surgical robot. Two medical teams were involved, linked by a video and a high-speed fibre-optic line. 'Safe' time lag A round distance of more than 14,000 kilometres (8,700 miles) separated the two medical teams. The time delay between the surgeon's movements and the return video image displayed on screen was less than 200 milliseconds. The estimated safe lag time is 330 ms. Professor Jacques Marescaux, who led the team, said the operation ushered in "the third revolution we've seen in the field of surgery in the past 10 years". "It lays the foundations for the globalisation of surgical procedures, making it possible to imagine that a surgeon could perform an operation on a patient anywhere in the world," he added. Step forward Telesurgery is of growing interest to the medical world. In June, patients at Rome's Policlinico Casilino University underwent minor telesurgery guided by experts at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, US. Fourteen patients were given a laparoscopy, where a small "telescope" was inserted into the body. Minor kidney surgery was then carried out on some of these patients. Details of the Strasbourg operation, which goes one step further, were revealed on Wednesday in the scientific journal Nature. http://www.mindjack.com/books/fleshmachines.html However, Brooks realizes that in such a system the human element is (still) not out of the loop, and that in order for it to work smoothly, and not disrupt the lives of those who rush to the airport and have work to do during the day, someone will have to remotely control the robot. The solution for this: developing countries where labor is cheap (and often quite qualified). Remote work as the killer application for robots in the short term. Brooks says, and I quote, The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote-presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor economies where no other work is available (146-147) There are at least two ways of interpreting this statement. Brooks may be a defender of the status quo, a pragmatist of sorts, and have no faith that the power relations, that keep the system running by forcing many entities to invisibility, can be changed. Brooks could also be an idealist, which is certainly not a fault, and believe that what he postulates above has a chance of becoming a reality. In any case, he is remarkably uninformed about the working conditions and lack of labour and safety regulations and working conditions which many workers in developing countries are exposed to. One can safely assume that he has not yet read Naomi Klein’s No Logo (2000), her exposé of the business practices of large corporations and the realities of outsourcing and sweatshops all over the world.
  • Delegate – what is exciting to me from a services evolution perspective (though it is not without pain in the US economy) is the growth of outsourcing – it is like massive parts of the human sociotechnical computer are all coming on line, and out services MIPS (millions of service interactions per second) are going way up as a result. Just heard about people outsourcing cartoons, and heart surgery. Picture India Call Center: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/23/60minutes/main590004.shtml Picture of Friedman: http://my.brandeis.edu/profiles/one-profile?profile_id=77 Text of Book: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0385499345/qid=1076826185/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/103-3454405-6368663?v=glance&s=books Picture of Friedman Book: http://www.allbookstores.com/covers/2/2/5/big0374185522.jpg Picture of Amartya Sen: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/nobel/a-sen-nobel.jpg Text of Book: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0385720270/qid=1076826924/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/103-3454405-6368663 Picture of Book: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0385720270/ref=sib_dp_pt/103-3454405-6368663#reader-link From Publishers Weekly When Sen, an Indian-born Cambridge economist, won the 1998 Nobel Prize for Economic Science, he was praised by the Nobel Committee for bringing an "ethical dimension" to a field recently dominated by technical specialists. Sen here argues that open dialogue, civil freedoms and political liberties are prerequisites for sustainable development. He tests his theory with examples ranging from the former Soviet bloc to Africa, but he puts special emphasis on China and India. How does one explain the recent gulf in economic progress between authoritarian yet fast-growing China and democratic, economically laggard India? For Sen, the answer is clear: India, with its massive neglect of public education, basic health care and literacy, was poorly prepared for a widely shared economic expansion; China, on the other hand, having made substantial advances in those areas, was able to capitalize on its market reforms. Yet Sen demolishes the notion that a specific set of "Asian values" exists that might provide a justification for authoritarian regimes. He observes that China's coercive system has contributed to massive famine and that Beijing's compulsory birth control policyAonly one child per familyAhas led to fatal neglect of female children. Though not always easy reading for the layperson, Sen's book is an admirable and persuasive effort to define development not in terms of GDP but in terms of "the real freedoms that people enjoy." (Sept.) Copyright 1999 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition. From Library Journal In his first book since winning the 1998 Nobel Prize for Economics, Sen (Trinity Coll., Cambridge) presents a decent summary of his thought. Advancing development as a method for expanding economicAand thus politicalAfreedom (he sees both as a means and an end) Sen recapitulates his studies of famine, poverty, life expectancy, mortality, and illiteracy in the Third World. A somewhat controversial choice for the Nobel Prize (since his focus on what is called "welfare economics," which makes human... read more --This text refers to the Hardcover edition. Book Description By the winner of the 1988 Nobel Prize in Economics, an essential and paradigm-altering framework for understanding economic development--for both rich and poor--in the twenty-first century. Freedom, Sen argues, is both the end and most efficient means of sustaining economic life and the key to securing the general welfare of the world's entire population. Releasing the idea of individual freedom from association with any particular historical, intellectual, political, or religious tradition, Sen clearly demonstrates its current applicability and possibilities. In the new global economy, where, despite unprecedented increases in overall opulence, the contemporary world denies elementary freedoms to vast numbers--perhaps even the majority of people--he concludes, it is still possible to practically and optimistically restain a sense of social accountability. Development as Freedom is essential reading.
  • Automate - The ultimate automation of manufacturing is lurking. Already metal parts for aircraft are being replicated. The cost of stereolithography or three-D printing is dropping. Perhaps by the end of this century we’ll see the realization of a type of utility fog. Manifest ideas into physical form. Pictures: http://www.materialise.be/prototypingsolutions/stereo_ENG.html Pictures:http://www.autofieldguide.com/articles/110309.html Picture of Author: http://www.engin.cf.ac.uk/whoswho/profile.asp?RecordNo=163 Picture of Author: http://www.engin.cf.ac.uk/whoswho/profile.asp?RecordNo=59 Picture of Book: Picture: Rat Skull: http://www.sciencenews.org/20030426/fob6.asp Picture: Printing Organs: http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99993292 Picture: Printing Gadgets: http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99993238 http://home.att.net/~rpml/p02b/p02b_460.htm 460. Rapid evolution: New materials and process improvements are stretching the boundaries of prototyping techniques. Author John DeGaspari Source Mechanical Engineering-CIME, March 2002 v124 i3 p48(5). Abstract In the roughly 15 years since it first hit the market, stereolithography has been joined by a host of other prototyping techniques, each carving out a niche with varying degrees of success. While material advancements are most evident in plastics, research is also taking place in metals and ceramics. One process that has seen developments in this area is stereolithography. The resins used in stereolithography are photosensitive thermosets that crosslink during the curing process, and are fundamentally different from the thermoplastics used in injection molding that they are designed to emulate. "Usually, these materials are good at matching a couple of mechanical properties, such as elastic modulus and yield strength," said Chuck Hull, chief technology officer of 3D Systems in Valencia, Calif., a supplier of stereolithography machines, selective laser sintering systems, and three-dimensional printers. He said that the industry has had some success in making resins that mimic polypropylene, a widel y used thermoplastic. He also expects stereolithography resin suppliers to continue to make progress in creating materials that have selected thermoplastic properties, which will drive specific applications. Other developments in stereolithography resins are adding to the fit and function capabilities of prototype parts. DSM Somos, based in New Castle, Del., recently introduced a line of WaterClear resins for building transparent prototype parts. The use of stereolithography resins to create master patterns for tooling for a secondary process, such as plastic injection molding or rubber molding, is the original and still dominant market application of the process. In December 2001, 3D Systems formed a joint venture with DSM Desotech called OptoForm LLC to develop a rapid prototyping process, called direct composite manufacturing, which uses photosensitive paste. Stratasys of Eden Prairie, Minn., a supplier of fused deposition modeling machines, is extending the range of thermoplastics used in its systems, an d Z Corp. of Burlington, Mass., is incorporating new pigments into its binders for its starch- and plaster-based materials resulting in brighter colors. RELATED ARTICLE: Stereolithography Cuts Its Teeth. A stereolithography application that has made the transition to rapid manufacturing is the Invisalign process, developed by Align Technology of Santa Clara, Calif., to manufacture teeth aligners, a clear plastic replacement for wire braces. The process is an example of stereolithography used for mass customization. Also see: http://www.findarticles.com/cf_dls/m1511/2_21/59164975/p1/article.jhtml Behold, the 3-D Fax! Discover , Feb, 2000, by Brad Lemley Machines that turn ideas into objects are reshaping everything from Camrys to computers NO SCIENCE FICTION NOVEL IS COMPLETE WITHOUT an appearance of the universal thing-maker. Whether it's called a fabricator, a replicator, or a Mark-12 Hyperduplicator, the basic idea is always the same: a gadget that miraculously creates or copies any object the protagonist desires. The fictional thing-maker may be an abused plot device, but a real one, linked to the Internet and nestled between the microwave and the blender, would be the most exciting domestic appliance ever. Need a comb, a Ken doll, an exhaust manifold for a 1967 Ford Fairlane? Download it. Need another cue stick, fondue fork, crystal vase? Copy it. This fantasy is not as farfetched as it sounds. Three-dimensional printers--known in the industrial world as solid-imaging machines--are already here in nascent form, transforming the way products are designed. Once the first home models arrive, in a decade or so, consumer culture may never be the same. "Your children's children will print their own toys," predicts Mervyn Rudgley; senior director of business development for 3D Systems of Valencia, California, the first and largest company in the field. Charles Hull, founder of 3D Systems, expects the technology will eventually lead to the ultimate in on-line shopping: goods delivered directly into the customer's living room. Hull cooked up the first solid-imaging system in 1984 in a back-room lab while working for a company in San Gabriel, California, that made ultraviolet lamps. Some of the lamps were used to treat special coatings that harden when exposed to ultraviolet light. By extending the process, Hull realized, he could make solid objects from light-cured plastics. Laboring long nights and weekends, he finally persuaded a computer-guided light beam to dance in a precise pattern on the surface of a basin full of gooey polymer. After the jittering beam solidified a thin layer of plastic, a platform just below the surface dropped a fraction of a millimeter, submerging the layer under another coat of polymer, and the procedure repeated itself. Finally; with the topmost layer hardened, the platform rose dramatically, revealing Hull's first creation: a translucent, bluish, inch-tall cup. It still sits in his office. "It's crude," he says, "but it showed what was possible." Hull dubbed the process stereolithography, meaning roughly "printing in three dimensions." Though he's modest and soft-spoken, he knew he had a winner. "I had the sense right from the start that this would be a big industry With this, any shape you could design with a CAD [computer-aided design] program, you could make." When Hull unveiled his machine at a Detroit engineering show in 1987, designers snapped it up. Compared with traditional prototyping, which required artisans to carve wood, sculpt clay; or machine steel, stereolithography seemed miraculous. It could translate a computer model of a camshaft or vane stem into a three-dimensional prototype in hours rather than weeks. And a team in Tokyo could electronically send that model to a stereolithography machine in Tennessee, where collaborators could inspect a physical prototype and zap back instructions for revisions. Also see:http://www.autofieldguide.com/articles/110309.html Rapid Prototyping: Rapidly Getting Stronger When it comes to rapid prototyping (RP), there are a variety of available systems, but one statement holds true across them: “Materials are critical,” says Mervyn Rudgley, senior director for product development at 3D Systems (Valencia, CA). And when it comes to equipment, size matters, and for some, smaller is better. By Lawrence S. Gould , Contributing Editor This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block, and then let the engine run for about 80 hours to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear to have degraded at all. [Photo courtesy of Stratasys] Materials Only ProtoComposites, a family of rapid prototyping (RP) materials recently released by DSM Somos (New Castle, DE), a third-party supplier of RP materials, are mixtures of solids and liquids optimized for RP. Explains Michelle Wyatt, DSM account manager, “These are complex materials in which two or more distinct, complementary substances—especially metals, ceramics, glasses or polymers—combine to produce functional properties not possible using individual components.” For example, Somos ProtoTool from DSM, the first in the company’s line of commercially available ProtoComposite materials, is a silica-based resin. Its heat deflection temperature is greater than 517°F at 66 psi. Another new ProtoComposite, Somos SolidCast, is a hollow-spherically filled material with low-density investment casting pattern properties—a density that’s about half that of conventional resins. Large parts from SolidCast are lighter than those produced with conventional resins. Parts made from SolidCast have a wax-like appearance, a very low heavy-metals content (0.015%), and they require no internal drainage, holes to seal, nor pressure or vacuum testing of patterns. These materials are in addition to the popular DSM Somos 9100. Parts made from this material replicate polypropylene tensile strength and elongation at yield, and have good mechanical memory. This high-speed liquid photopolymer is a good, all-purpose material for prototyping interior automotive parts. The General Motors Technical Center uses 9100 exclusively. Chrysler uses that material, too. But note this: Compared to Somos 9100 series resins, DSM ProtoTool 20L has six times the flexural strength, 2.5 times the tensile strength, and up to 3.5 times the heat deflection temperature. This is one durable resin—one well suited for functional prototypes like impellers, pump housings, headlight reflectors, and wind tunnel test models. Unlike DSM, 3D Systems is an RP equipment supplier, too. 3D also has a broad selection of RP materials. For laser sintering RP, 3D has long offered a metal powder called LaserForm ST-100. Its green strength—the strength of material straight out of the machine before curing—was extremely low, explains 3D’s Mervyn Rudgley. You had to use a fine-haired bristle brush to clear the powder around a prototype made of this material. In December 2002, 3D announced LaserForm ST-200, which has about three times the green strength of ST-100. ST-200 has the characteristics of P20 steel. It is comprised of 420 stainless steel, which is sintered in the selective laser sintering (SLS) system. The sintered part is then infiltrated with bronze in an oven to produce a dense part or tool with complex geometries and intricate feature detail. Or tens of thousands of parts, even with aggressive injection molding materials. “Engineers will be able to design without the necessity to adapt their designs to the limitations of traditional manufacturing methods,” claims Rudgley. 3D is about to release another material for its Vanguard SLS system: LaserForm A6 steel. This material will be stronger still—hardness in the Rockwell C range. (The hardness of ST100 and ST200 are in the Rockwell B range.) A6 material is primarily for injection mold tooling applications. For stereolithography, 3D released last year its Accura line of materials. Accura SI 10 is a general-purpose material with a long vat life, high green strength, and high humidity resistance. SI 10 yields parts with a glossy top finish, and is well suited for thin-wall parts and for master patterns. SI 20 is a durable white material ideal for snap-fit testing and room temperature vulcanization (RTV) applications. SI 30 is a durable low-viscosity material with a fast photo speed. Last, SI 40 resists high temperatures and its toughness is akin to Nylon 6. Parts out of SI 40 feature optical clarity, high flexural modulus, and moderate elongation to break, with a high heat deflection temperature. “This material is ideal for automotive applications, including under-the-hood applications, wind tunnel testing, and flow analysis,” says Rudgley. Another material suitable for under-the-hood automotive applications comes from the other giant in RP: Stratasys (Eden Prairie, MN). PPSF (polyphenylsulfone) is extremely durable and remains strong at high temperatures. Its heat-deflection temperature of PPSF is 417°F at 66 psi and 405°F at 264 psi. This FDM material resists chemicals, acids, and petroleum products. PPSF is used in Stratasys FDM Titan, which can also use ABS plastic and polycarbonate. Smaller is popular Here’s a tidbit from Rudgley: Laser sintering machines are lying dormant. In fact, the use of RP machines across the board has gone down. This has nothing to do with RP technology and everything to do with the current economy. Several RP companies are targeting small prototyping applications, such as design shops and collaborative office situations—places where a communications tool is needed, says Rudgley, so that “instead of everybody staring at a complex drawing for 10 to 15 minutes trying to work out what they’re looking at, they can look at a 3D model.” The result is a rash of RP machines that are basically 3D versions of a standard 2D printer. These RP “printers” sit in an office, require no special training beyond what’s in the user’s manual, and they come with print drivers to load into any standard Windows-based computer. Solidimension Ltd. (Be’erot Itzhak, Israel) has its SD300 3D printer, which sells for about $30,000. The printer uses poly-vinyl chloride (PVC) to make prototypes. It is physically small (16 in. x 29.5 in., by 16.5 in. high) and weighs about 88 lb. with the resin cartridge installed. Parts from the printer can be as large as approximately 9.4 in. x 8 in. x 6 in. high. This printer works off computers running Microsoft Windows 98, 2000, and XP operating systems. Stratasys’ business unit Dimension (Eden Prairie, MN) offers the Dimension 3D printer, which also sells for less than $30,000. This RP printer also does not use any noxious materials and requires no venting or special facilities. It uses ABS materials to make parts (plus a break-away support system). Stratasys also recently inked a deal where it will be the sole distributor of Objet for all of North America. Objet, another Israeli firm, makes the Eden line of photopolymer inkjet machines. Objet’s Eden333 uses UV-cured photopolymers that come in front-loading cartridges to create models about 13.4 in. x 13 in. x 7.9 in. and with super-fine features and surface finishes. The printer, which costs roughly $115,000, is 52 in. wide by 39 in. deep by 47 in. high and weighs 900 lb. For the same target market, 3D Systems has ThermoJet, which costs about $50,000. The latest in that family is Envision, which uses a UVHM material (Ultraviolet Hot Melt) called VisiJet. This is a UV-curable acrolate plastic, not the hot-melt wax jetted through ThermoJet. Each time the Envision print head builds three layers out of UVHM, the machine automatically pushes the part into something like a darkroom. There, a flash-flood UV light cures the layers. Wax provides support, but that melts away when the model is put into an oven at about 160°F. The resulting prototype, says Rudgley, “is a cross between a ThermoJet model and a stereolithography prototype.” In terms of rigidity, the prototype has a material strength about 10 times that of those from ThermoJet, but about a quarter to a third of the strength of the parts made from stereolithography. It’s all about manufacturing “The ultimate goal is to avoid the tooling process and go directly into manufacturing,” says Wyatt. Some industries are already doing this. Boeing, says Rudgley, uses laser sintering plastic to make the air ducts for F18 fighter jets. These ducts are honest-to-goodness, single-piece production parts, with twists and turns and fins inside. Made the conventional way, Boeing would have to make four or five parts for assembly. DSM’s Michelle Wyatt points out that some of the high-end automobiles have very limited production runs. “Using RP to produce some of the automotive parts could save a significant amount of cost.” Also see: http://www.plasticsnews.net/get_vis/459.html (better materials – ceramics)
  • Slow changes in work -- What has been the focus of work throughout history— Food, food, food-goods-services, differentiated serf-professional-elite food-goods-services, commodities-diversity, standard goods, cheap goods, information services… http://courses.nus.edu.sg/course/socsja/SC2202/topics.htm The nature of work is determined by the nature of society. In Hunting and Gathering Societies, people lived in small bands of 30-50.  In such small groups, the division of labor was minimal.  Age and sex were two of the few systematic bases for stratification. Early Agricultural Societies were somewhat more productive.  There was an increased division of labor yielding a surplus of food and wealth.  With that surplus came the beginning of increased inequality.  For the first time, plunder and warfare became worthwhile. Imperial Societies were based on systematic plunder and slavery. Feudal Societies were more complex.  Many of the previous patterns continued but, alongside them, free towns with commercial and craft guilds came into existence.  Feudalism was spead across the globe but the local variantions were quite pronounced. Merchant Capitalism has a long history.  When merchants acted as labor contractors, new (modern) patterns of production began to emerge -- such as putting-out industry, cottage industry, or sweated industry.  We have updated versions of such patterns today -- subcontracting.  White collar professionals may no longer be "employed;" some may even work from their homes.  The “Enclosure Movement" in Britain helped chase people from rural areas into towns and helped bring on the Industrial Revolution. The Factory System marks the beginning of the Industrial Revolution as we know it.  (Actually, it has a very long pre-history.)  Textiles were the first product to be industrialized.  For the first time a detailed division of labor emerged.  Indentured laborers were not uncommon.  It's easy to forget that agriculture became industrialized early on also.  A trip the the technology museum of the Smithsonian Institution in Washingtom D.C. shows agricultural machinery as some of the earliest production machines. Mass Production Under Monopoly Capitalism incorporated such social inventions as the assembly line and even larger machines.  A more complex and nuanced class structure emerges.  (We're all in the middle class now but ...) Throughout much of pre-history and history the developments implied proceeded in parallel.  The degree and direction of sharing was not insignifcant but was not always in the direction we might expect today.  The Factory System and Mass Production diffused to Asia relatively recently from North America and Europe
  • Rapid changes in work – science-knowledge, technology-information, business-value cycle speed up My model is a model of cognitive capabilities - how do we measure not the results of the cognitive activities, but the amount of cognitive capability that is present in the system? Knowledge is the new driving intangible – individuals worked together to create organizations that helped them secure key intangibles freedom (governments) and value (business) Need better (more efficient) ways to incent and measure contributions. Governments provide law and police/military to ensure freedom. Businesses provide jobs and investment opportunities to ensure value creation. What about battling entropy and battling risk? Performance Metrics for Intelligent systems: http://www.isd.mel.nist.gov/research_areas/research_engineering/Performance_Metrics/PerMIS_2002_Proceedings/
  • Tools – we need new tools to help search large configuration spaces of business-technology-work configurations… You may even know that research scientists at IBM just built the fastest computer in the world… What if we could start using these machines for computational organization theory and agent-based computational economies – what insights might we obtain?
  • Not enough time, but nations, businesses, and individuals not only have economic goals – driving productivity increases – but other goals as well – in coming decades these other goals will play an increasing large role. Example of last point: Nobel laureate who showed pollution increases in early stages of economic development until the wealth of the people reaches a certain critical stage, and then their attention turns to the toxic environment side-effect of prosperity, and at that stage pollution levels start to decrease due to government policy interventions.
  • Again – service science deals with the following technology innovation allows process reengineering, which must be evaluated in terms of ROI or the efficient use of capital to transform a business value creation and capture capabilities, and it must also be evaluated in terms of organizational change and strategy -- is it the best use of human capital and social capital. PIP stands for Potential for Improvement of Performance. PIP is simply the ratio of exemplar performance to average performance. So for example across a one hundred person sales team PIP be 20, whereas across a pool of clerical workers the PIP might only be 2. PIP’s decrease either due to extreme competition (PIP’s in professional athletes may be as low as 1.001) or extreme ease of diffusion of the best practice (a supplier with an improvement for the whole industry). PIP was introduced by Thomas E. Gilbert (1978) Human Competence: Engineering Worthy Performance. McGraw Hill. NY. Gilbert was influential in transforming many learning and training organizations, and shifting them into a new organization -- The International Society for Performance Improvement (ISPI) is the association of choice for performance improvement (PI) practitioners seeking a community of practice. http://www.ispi.org/ This is a large organization with a focus on measuring accomplishment results for many activities and comparing exemplar to average performance, and then engineering improvements to bring the average closer to the exemplar. Training is consider a very costly way to do this, so typically the engineering involved changing the tools in the environment or changing the incentives and social relations to improve work performance. Because process improvements (such as automation or optimization technologies) can be bought from vendors, they tend to diffuse quite easily. Because capital efficiency improvement tend to be spread by a large number of business finance consultant, again they tend to diffuse quite easily. Industry benchmark’s rarely show more than a factor of 2 to 4 difference for an sustained period of time on these dimensions. However, changing an organization, especially if it requires changing skills, responsibility structures, and creates “winners and loser” out of stakeholders in the change, can lead to all kinds of social backlash. For example, court stenographers have successfully lobbied to have speech recognition systems not installed in court rooms in many areas. Even if all stakeholders support the change, numerous studies indicate that entrenched behavior (unconsciously slipping into old processes) can have a detrimental effect on an organizational change. Many major transformations often occur in a crisis mode when the organization’s viability is at stake. For example, pilots unions in the news cut salaries and raise working hours to maintain the viability of the organization – drastic times and drastic measures. Many organizations routinely see factors of 10 performance difference between exemplar and average performers, and these difference can persist for long periods if performance engineering or other techniques are not used to reduce the variance.
  • Coevolution of business-technology-and-work innovation – that is what service science is all about, and at IBM we are working with other companies and associations, academics, and government agencies to accelerate change. Google Search Query Results (done fall of 2003) ---------------------------------- History of Technology -> 78,500 History of Work -> 10,600 History of Business -> 15,100 Future of Technology -> 85,500 Future of Work -> 32,000 Future of Business -> 25,600 Coevolution -> 62,000 Technology, Business, Coevolution -> 6,350 Technology, Business, Coevolution, IBM -> 989 All pages -> 3,307,998,701 History -> 113,000,000 Future -> 69,500,000
  • I first started thinking seriously about this when I was lucky enough to be asked to comment on a draft of Don Norman’s upcoming book things that make us smart – back in the early 90’s. This talk is not about risks of cognitive technology development or about betting on which future possibility is most likely… though there are some books/websites for this… Perspectives: -Assume NBIC convergence results – what are the implications for business What are specific NBIC capabilities, and what are their implications for business What are general NBIC capabilities, and what are their implications for business Capabilities can be specific technologies Capabilities can be generic or meta as in metrics for measuring capabilities Book text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0471295604/qid=1077683911/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/104-2997550-9638329?v=glance&s=books Book picture: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0471295604/ref=sib_dp_pt/104-2997550-9638329#reader-link Author Picture: http://www.gsb.stanford.edu/community/bmag/sbsm0005/images/haim-2.jpg
  • Some of the cognitive technologies to be discussed may seem undesireable – because they seem to violate privacy, could promote unequal access, be used by some groups to censor other groups, be an infrastructure that supports new kinds of mischief such as crime and environmental damage, and as we become more and more dependent on technology – as we all are – there is greater possibility for catastrophic failures that would make the black out of the northeastern united states look mild by comparison. The editor of NetFuture is Steve Talbott (stevet@oreilly.com) – touted as a neo-Luddite. http://www.netfuture.org/ Amazon.com Stephen Talbott's The Future Does Not Compute has been widely touted as a neo-Luddite anti-computer tract. This sort of pigeonholing makes it easy to ignore the profound and disturbing questions Talbott raises about our machine-dominated society. The author brings years of computer and Internet experience to the table, leavened by a deep skepticism of techno-idealism, disdain of muddy thinking, and fear that we have embraced an overwhelming force before we've begun to examine its implications. Is technology a utopian delusion that blinds us to social and personal reality? Does the information society actually disdain information? Have we anthropomorphized machines to the point where our institutions resemble them? Talbott neither expects that computers will vanish, nor believes they should. What he asks of us is to examine closely our own humanity. As much as computer believers may squirm, it's hard to elude the questions raised by this complex and intelligent book. From Book News, Inc. The subject is the dark side of the Internet and computers and the negative impact they have on individuals and society-- an interesting offering from a computer books publisher (the author is a senior editor at O'Reilly, and the editor is O'Reilly himself). The subject certainly merits plenty of discussion, but Talbott's prose is scattershot. Though he sounds some alarms, he doesn't offer the clear, incisive thinking that is an antidote to the frustration and alienation caused by machines.... read more Book Description The technological Djinn, now loosened from all restraints, tempts us with visions of a surreal future. It is a future with robots who surpass their masters in dexterity and wit; intelligent agents who roam the Net on our behalf, seeking the informational elixir that will make us whole; new communities inhabiting the clean, infinite reaches of cyberspace, freed from war and conflict; and lending libraries of "virtually real" experiences that seem more sensational than the real thing. Not all of this is idle or fantastic speculation -- even if it is the rather standard gush about our computerized future. Written by one of our editors, this book explores the networked computer as an expression of the darker, dimly conscious side of the human being. What we have been imparting to the Net -- or what the Net has been eliciting from us -- is a half-submerged, barely intended logic, contaminated by wishes and tendencies we prefer not to acknowledge. The urgent necessity is for us to wake up to what is most fully human and unmachinelike in ourselves, rather than yield to an ever more strangling embrace with our machines. The author's thesis is sure to raise a controversy among the millions of users now adapting themselves to the Net.
  • Also, I will not be assigning probabilities to the possibilities I outline. Complex systems can evolve in any number of different directions based on what at the time seems like small accidents of chance. However, many people feel strongly about their bets on the future, and fortunately for them there are a number of internet sites that will allow them to put their money where there mouths are – longbets.org does so with payoffs going to charities. http://www.longbets.org/ Founder Stewart Brand Stewart Brand [updated September, 02001. Click on photos for bigger ones.] Let's see how many links I can cram in one fairly relevant sentence... These days (see resume ) I'm the president of The Long Now Foundation (which is building a 10,000-year Clock and Library) and a co-founder of the All Species Inventory and the Long Bets Foundation while continuing as a consultant with Global Business Network , serving as a trustee of the Santa Fe Institute , and occasionally consulting for Ecotrust . . A substantial item on the Global Business Network site is a list of all the books I recommended for the GBN "Book Club" between 1988 and 2000---a couple hundred reviews. The rest of this entry features two books and two mad projects. The most recent book is The Clock of the Long Now (Basic Books, 1999; in the UK , Orion Books). John Casti in Nature , the leading science magazine, wrote about it: "In one way or another, everyone has a stake in the future. This well-written, interesting, intelligent book is about as good an operating manual as you'll find on how to ensure that that future doesn't slip away through misadventure, miscalculation, or just plain neglect." The first mad project started with computer designer Danny Hillis, who wants to build the world's slowest computer—a 10,000-year Clock. We're doing it. See below and The Long Now Foundation website. The most substantial book I've done is How Buildings Learn : What Happens After They're Built (Viking-Penguin, 1994; in the UK , Orion Books). It was written (and designed and laid out in detail) to change the practice of building and the use of buildings the way Chris Alexander's A Pattern Language and Jane Jacobs's The Death and Life of Great American Cities have done. It may be working. Besides being adopted in a variety of courses as a textbook, it it widely used by individuals who are building or remodeling or preserving a building. "Penetratingly original," said Philip Morrison at Scientific American . "A classic and probably a work of genius," wrote Jane Jacobs. The second mad project came from Kevin Kelly (and he currently chairs it). The plan is to find and document every life form on Earth in the next 25 years. The estimates of how many species there might be range from 10 million to 100 million; only 1.6 million have been identified so far. See the All Species website for more.
  • Some people say the brain is a pretty good piece of cognitive technology. Some say our organizations. Some say the digital technologies, and now the dawn of NBIC techologies. The last three hundred years have been rapid evolution of businesses-technology innovations has been at the heart of what is making us smarter… Book Picture: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0767904028/ref=sib_dp_pt/103-3454405-6368663#reader-link Book Text: Author Picture: Quote test: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/06/0627_020628_wadedavis.html Cognitive technologies simply put are things that make us smart – my talk today wiill address the questions what makes us smart, and how will NBIC convergence in the next ten years make us smarter? My ad hoc definition of cognitive technologies is the growth of capabilities for intentionally achieving goals using optimal resources – no additional energy, time, material, etc. I’ll start by acknowledging the growth of capabilities that have not been under our intentional control – from atoms to molecules to cells to bodies to nerves to brains to people – complexity finally giving rise to humans, who have the intention to grow capabilities to achieve goals. Since I’ve been asked to present an industry vision, perhaps I’ll be forgiven for saying that businesses are one of the most important things that make us all smarter than we’d otherwise be – or more broadly all organizations that provide food, materials, and services that help us live healthier lives, give us jobs and material wealth, and provide “fair” taxation to provide for a variety of public services such as education. It surely could have been something other than businesses that gave us, the average citizen, the ability to fly between continents – but by whatever accidents of history, it was business TWA, United, American, Delta that gave us this capability… We can achieve small goals inside our heads by learning skills (such as algebra or logic) that allow us to figure things out, but achieving other goals in our world require establishing businesses that have the purpose of providing services that achieve goals. The idea of mobilizing many people and resources into organizations to achieve large goals has been around certainly since the time of the pyramids over six thousands years ago, but it has really only been in the last hundred and fifty years that the large managerial firms that we recognize as businesses today have emerged. More recently, in fact only about in the past 50 years, has the unraveling of the secret of DNA, digital computers, nanoscale manipulations, and cognitive science – understanding human thought processes – begun to converge so that the natural processes of the last 12 billion years are coming under some form of intentional control. Of course, many times in human history have people felt proud of the level of accomplishment in knowing how to describe, predict, explain, and control things around us. The end of the nineteenth century just to name one. Nevertheless, this decade is the first that makes it possible for a person to afford a device that could in principle record, store, and manipulate a record of every action in their life, or resolve in space and time activity levels well below the one square millimeter level. So at the granularity of a human life, this decade is very special.
  • http://www.modafinil.com/     "...modafinil ('Provigil') is a memory-improving and mood-brightening psychostimulant. It enhances wakefulness and vigilance, but its pharmacological profile is notably different from the amphetamines, methylphenidate (Ritalin) or cocaine. Modafinil is less likely to cause jitteriness, anxiety, or excess locomotor activity - or lead to a hypersomnolent 'rebound effect' - than traditional stimulants. Subjectively, it feels smoother and cleaner than the amphetamines too.          Current research suggests modafinil, like its older and better-tested analogue adrafinil, is a safe, effective and well-tolerated agent. It is long-acting and doesn't tend to cause peripheral sympathetic stimulation. Yet its CNS action isn't fully understood. Modafinil induces wakefulness in part by its action in the anterior hypothalamus. Its dopamine-releasing action in the nucleus accumbens is weak and dose-dependent; the likelihood of dose-escalation and tolerance is apparently small. Modafinil has central alpha 1-adrenergic agonist effects i.e. it directly stimulates the receptors. More significant, perhaps, is its ability to increase excitatory glutamatergic transmission. This reduces local GABAergic transmission, thereby diminishing GABA(A) receptor signalling on the mesolimbic dopamine terminals.          Modafinil is proving clinically useful in the treatment of narcolepsy, a neurological disorder marked by uncontrollable attacks of daytime sleepiness. Narcolepsy is caused by dysfunction of a family of wakefulness-promoting and sleep-suppressing peptides, the orexins. Orexin neurons are activated by modafinil. Orexinergic neurons are found exclusively in the lateral hypothalamic area, but their fibers project to the entire central nervous system. Genetically modified orexin-knockout animals offer a model of human narcolepsy.          Experimentally, modafinil is also used in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, depression, attention-deficit disorder, myotonic dystrophy, multiple sclerosis-induced fatigue, age-related memory decline, idiopathic hypersomnia and everyday cat-napping. In September 2003, an advisory panel to the FDA endorsed its use for treating shift work sleep disorder and obstructive sleep apnea.          The US military are interested in modafinil too.          Prudence, however, should be exercised in drastically curtailing one's sleep. Prolonged sleeplessness weakens immune function. Animals tortured in sleep-deprivation experiments eventually die from massive bacterial infections of the blood..." Cognitive enhancing: http://www.modafinil.com/healthy.html Cognitive enhancing effects of modafinil in healthy volunteers by Turner DC, Robbins TW, Clark L, Aron AR, Dowson J, Sahakian BJ. Department of Psychiatry, University of Cambridge, School of Clinical Medicine, Addenbrooke's Hospital, Hills Road, Cambridge CB2 2QQ, UK. Psychopharmacology (Berl) 2003 Jan;165(3):260-9 ABSTRACT RATIONALE. Modafinil, a novel wake-promoting agent, has been shown to have a similar clinical profile to that of conventional stimulants such as methylphenidate. We were therefore interested in assessing whether modafinil, with its unique pharmacological mode of action, might offer similar potential as a cognitive enhancer, without the side effects commonly experienced with amphetamine-like drugs. OBJECTIVES. The main aim of this study was to evaluate the cognitive enhancing potential of this novel agent using a comprehensive battery of neuropsychological tests. METHODS. Sixty healthy young adult male volunteers received either a single oral dose of placebo, or 100 mg or 200 mg modafinil prior to performing a variety of tasks designed to test memory and attention. A randomised double-blind, between-subjects design was used. RESULTS. Modafinil significantly enhanced performance on tests of digit span, visual pattern recognition memory, spatial planning and stop-signal reaction time. These performance improvements were complemented by a slowing in latency on three tests: delayed matching to sample, a decision-making task and the spatial planning task. Subjects reported feeling more alert, attentive and energetic on drug. The effects were not clearly dose dependent, except for those seen with the stop-signal paradigm. In contrast to previous findings with methylphenidate, there were no significant effects of drug on spatial memory span, spatial working memory, rapid visual information processing or attentional set-shifting. Additionally, no effects on paired associates learning were identified. CONCLUSIONS. These data indicate that modafinil selectively improves neuropsychological task performance. This improvement may be attributable to an enhanced ability to inhibit pre-potent responses. This effect appears to reduce impulsive responding, suggesting that modafinil may be of benefit in the treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,7713-873090,00.html Modafinil was developed more than 20 years ago in France at Lafon Laboratories, a company that is now part of the Cephalon group. Company literature describes modafinil as a “wake promoter” rather than a stimulant and states that the drug belongs to its own class, which it has called Eugeroics, of which there is just one other related drug, also manufactured by Cephalon. http://www.smart-drugs.com/modafinil-eugeroic.htm EUGEROICS : THE UNIQUE STIMULANTS by Robert Mason Ph.D. Eugeroic simply means "good arousal," but eugeroics from a unique class of drugs, which contain only two at present, those being adrafinil and modafinil, (both of which have been developed by Lafon Laboratories of France). The basis of their uniqueness lies in their ability to only “stimulate when stimulation is required.” As a result, the “highs and lows” associated with other stimulants such as amphetamine, are absent with eugeroics.  Their initial use often produces comments such as, “I can’t tell any difference.” But it is only several hours later, when one realizes that attention and awakeness are the same as earlier, that one is made fully aware of their benefit.  Eugeroics have been designed to treat narcolepsy (sleeping in the day), hypersomnia (excessive sleep) and cataplexy, (a condition of sudden muscular weakness or fatigue).  Yet eugeroics don’t affect normal sleep patterns, nor are they addictive and they Eugeroic simply means “good arousal,” but eugeroics form a unique have far fewer side effects than the current prescribed stimulants.  http://abcnews.go.com/sections/GMA/GoodMorningAmerica/GMA011203Stay_awake_pill.html Scientists say modafinil, a stimulant that is currently used to treat narcolepsy, could keep people awake for days at a time. Imagine a pill that would make sleep unnecessary for fighter pilots on long-range missions, or even the high-powered executives and parents of newborns among us. http://www.sciam.com/techbiz/index.cfm?month=08&year=03 Helicon Therapeutics   The Quest for a Smart Pill Helicon Therapeutics, a leader in neuropharmacology, is one of the chief players in the race to develop a new class of drugs that might improve memory and cognitive performance in impaired individuals. The possible benefits for normal individuals--including the ability to sleep less, work harder and play more--are already stirring debate. Need similar slides for all five levels that illustrate the large amount of data and inter-connected models that are emerging. Lots of group data being collected, organizations and populations. Including the tie back to genes to close the loop – the Iceland population study. Paul Maglio wrote on the cognitive level: On the matter of examples from psychology, it is interesting, I think, that we keep going back to MiIler and Fitts and Simon and so on. I mean, we could include Pavlov and Tolman and Gibson and Skinner and Chomsky (generously, psychology) too. What is the common thread? Two threads, as I see it. First, what I will call the stimulus-response (SR) tradition has Pavlov, Skinner, Fitts, and Gibson (yes, yes, yes, crude and inaccurate, but bear with it) in which mental representations just don't appear. There is some input, there is some (simple) process, there is some output. End of story. Second, we have Miller and Tolman and Simon and Chomsky (etc), which obviously is the cognitive tradition, requiring mental representations of some interesting sort to mediate between input and output. This current view is all about mental representations, and even more specifically, about mental processes involving simulation (ie, mental models) to get from percept to action, and lots and lots of behavior can be explained this way --- far more than in the SR tradition. Now, ok, so what's important about this? Well, it didn't exist 50 years ago. It exists fundamentally because of the computer, as the information processing metaphor took hold of psychology, so too was incredible progress made. In the 80s, with the advent of connectionism, a so-caled different breed of computation, yet more behavior phenomena opened up for explanation, but this quickly died down as it turned out that this hack on the information processing metaphor really did not amount to that different an approach. So what's next? Well, perhaps another computational metaphor will come along -- we can be dragged or we can lead. Perhaps good old fashioned information processing psychology is here to stay --- but that means the computer is the metaphor and we, as a computer company, ought to embrace it.
  • Source: ACSI Roadmap www.llnl.gov/asd, IBM Brain ops/sec, Kurzweil 1999, The Age of the Spiritual Machines Could also add “Against the gods: Remarkable story of risk” – Peter Bernstein.
  • Need genes sequenced per second Need emails/IM per second Book Picture: http://wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/ Transistors: http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/speeches/barrett20010508.htm Craig Barrett: “This plot you're seeing now happens to be the number of transistors that are produced each year by our industry worldwide. And if you can't read the scale, I think it's something like about 200 quintillion transistors per year are produced. If you want to put that if perspective, that is roughly equal to every printed character, letter, A, B, C, or number that has been recorded in the history of mankind. So each year we make the same number of transistors as every character that man has written down in man's lifetime. And you can see that that number continues to grow at a logarithmic rate in terms of the increase and the average price per transistor continues to decrease the logarithmic rate. That's why you get the anti-inflationary nature of our industry in terms of bringing more capability for the same cost year upon year upon year.” http://www.future-fab.com/documents.asp?d_ID=1285 Transistors per person by 2008 In 1998, the worldwide industry produced about 2.1 billion transistors every second.
  • External (distribute) and internal (integrate) External (open) and internal (close) Externalize knowledge (put outside the old system) and internalize the knowledge (connect and define/bring into existence a new system)
  • How would we even begin to measure the capability increases of each advance? Why do we need metrics? Because we want to track, invest, and delivery significant innovations. Surely the perspectives and hence metrics will evolve over time, but as a baseline what can we say about the relative significance of different innovations. Significance may be a subjective relevance measure – an individual takes a fancy to something and promotes it. Rational decision making depends on metrics. Book picture: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0679758941/ref=sib_dp_pt/103-3454405-6368663#reader-link Author picture: http://www.nonzero.org/images/rwrightcrop.gif Book text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0679758941/qid=1077240777/sr=2-1/ref=sr_2_1/103-3454405-6368663 Mediators help us externalize the mind and connect minds. Create islands of knowledge and connect islands of knowledge.
  • Sources: Porat, M. (1977) The Information Economy: Definitions and Measurements, Special Publication 77 12(1), Office of Telecommunications, US Department of Commerce. Book picture: http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0631211020.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg Author picture: http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=www.cso.edu/ancien_site/march_portrait.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.cso.edu/ancien_site/march_bio.htm&h=270&w=250&sz=8&tbnid=eAHBA8fmVlUJ:&tbnh=108&tbnw=100&start=5&prev=/images%3Fq%3D%2522James%2BG.%2BMarch%2522%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26ie%3DUTF-8%26oe%3DUTF-8%26safe%3Doff Book text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0631211020/qid=1077242349/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/103-3454405-6368663?v=glance&s=books Time Line: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/telephone/timeline/f_timeline.html Farm Labor: http://www.usda.gov/history2/text3.htm Brief History of Work: http://courses.nus.edu.sg/course/socsja/SC2202/Labor/Occupationsa.html 1800 and the Jeffersonian ideal – citizens as independent and self sufficient 1800 – mobile people called settler (move and stay), conquerors (come in to rule), or sailors (come from afar to trade), changed by 1900 to include travelers -- local travel to family, on business, leisure, schools, medical, government or military service.
  • Book Picture: http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0875848745/ref=sib_dp_pt/103-3454405-6368663#reader-link Author Picture: http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution/bio/index.shtml?haeckel Book Text: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0875848745/qid=1077242893/sr=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/103-3454405-6368663?v=glance&s=books
  • 6 R’s of learning (individual cognitive abilities; collective cognitive abilities) – diffusion and focus issues. Keeping up with email. Genes, Brains, Bioaugments, smarter tech & environment, social augments Thought 1 “ thought and experience is statistically shaped by the collective actions of the population” - Amazon (recommendation, reviews), Googles relevance ranking, self help. Workpractices http://www.mindlabs.org/ - mind abs home michigan state university. http://www.cogtech.org/ - cognitive technology society, jourrnal of cognition and technology http://www.cogtech.org/CT99/ -- proceedings with many papers http://www.benjamins.com/cgi-bin/t_bookview.cgi?bookid=IJCT_1_1 Towards a science of the bio-technological mind Andy Clark, Indiana University The study of Cognitive Technology is, in a very real sense, the study of ourselves. Who we are, what we are, and even where we are, are all jointly determined by our biological natures and the web of supporting (and constraining) technologies in which we live, work and dream. But what general principles and concepts will allow us to make systematic sense (indeed, to make a science) of the bio-technological mind? I offer a brief, personal sketch of the underappreciated intimacy of human organisms and technological scaffoldings, and then rehearse 7 questions that such a science needs urgently to address. Keywords: cognition, Cyborgs, mind, tools In: International Journal of Cognition and Technology 1:1 . 2002. iv, 183 (pp. 21–33) Language as a cognitive technology Marcelo Dascal, Tel Aviv University Ever since Descartes singled out the ability to use natural language appropriately in any given circumstance as the proof that humans — unlike animals and machines — have minds, an idea that Turing transformed into his well-known test to determine whether machines have intelligence, the close connection between language and cognition has been widely acknowledged, although it was accounted for in quite different ways. Recent advances in natural language processing, as well as attempts to create “embodied conversational agents” which couple language processing with that of its natural bodily correlates (gestures, facial expression and gaze direction), in the hope of developing human-computer interfaces based on natural — rather than formal — language, have again brought to the fore the question of how far we can hope machines to be able to master the cognitive abilities required for language use. In this paper, I approach this issue from a different angle, inquiring whether language can be viewed as a “cognitive technology”, employed by humans as a tool for the performance of certain cognitive tasks. I propose a definition of “cognitive technology” that encompasses both external (or “prosthetic”) and internal cognitive devices. A number of parameters in terms of which a typology of cognitive technologies of both kinds can be sketched is also set forth. It is then argued that inquiring about language’s role in cognition allows us to re-frame the traditional debate about the relationship between language and thought, by examining how specific aspects of language actually influence cognition — as an environment, a resource, or a tool. This perspective helps bring together the contributions of the philosophical “linguistic turn” in epistemology and the incipient “epistemology of cognitive technology” It also permits a more precise and fruitful discussion of the question whether, to what extent, and which of the language-based cognitive technologies we naturally use can be emulated by the kinds of technologies presently or in the foreseeable future available. Keywords: cognitive environment, cognitive resource, cognitive tool, formulaic expressions, information retrieval, language, pragmatics, semantics, sequential ordering, syntax In: International Journal of Cognition and Technology 1:1 . 2002. iv, 183 (pp. 35–61) The origins of narrative: In search of the transactional format of narratives in humans and other social animals Kerstin Dautenhahn, University of Hertfordshire This article presents work in progress towards a better understanding of the origins of narrative. Assuming an evolutionary and developmental continuity of mental experiences, we propose a grounding of human narrative capacities in non-verbal narrative transactions in non-human animals, and in pre-verbal narrative transactions of human children. We discuss narrative intelligence in the context of the evolution of primate (social) intelligence, and with respect to the particular cognitive limits that constrain the development of human social networks and societies. We explain the Narrative Intelligence Hypothesis which suggests that the evolutionary origin of communicating in a narrative format co-evolved with increasingly complex social dynamics among our human ancestors. This article gives examples of social interactions in non-human primates and how these can be interpreted in terms of narrative formats. Due to the central role of narrative in human communication and social interaction, we discuss how research into the origins of narrative can impact the development of humane technology which is designed to meet the biological, cognitive and social needs of human story-tellers. Keywords: Autism, Narrative intelligence, Social intelligence In: International Journal of Cognition and Technology 1:1 . 2002. iv, 183 (pp. 97–123) Robots as cognitive tools Rolf Pfeifer, University of Zurich Artificial intelligence is by its very nature synthetic, its motto is “Understanding by building”. In the early days of artificial intelligence the focus was on abstract thinking and problem solving. These phenomena could be naturally mapped onto algorithms, which is why originally AI was considered to be part of computer science and the tool was computer programming. Over time, it turned out that this view was too limited to understand natural forms of intelligence and that embodiment must be taken into account. As a consequence the focus changed to systems that are able to autonomously interact with their environment and the main tool became the robot. The “developmental robotics” approach incorporates the major implications of embodiment with regard to what has been and can potentially be learned about human cognition by employing robots as cognitive tools. The use of “robots as cognitive tools” is illustrated in a number of case studies by discussing the major implications of embodiment, which are of a dynamical and information theoretic nature. Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, biorobotics, Cognitive Technology, cognitive tools, developmental robotics, embodiment, morphology, situated cognition, synthetic methodology In: International Journal of Cognition and Technology 1:1 . 2002. iv, 183 (pp. 125–143) Relevance, goal management and cognitive technology Roger Lindsay, Psychology Department, Oxford Brookes University Barbara Gorayska, SPS, University of Cambridge An accumulating body of research suggests that it is profitable to treat human cognition as a system that is primarily concerned with goal management. More specifically, it appears that the symbolic representation of goals, the location of relevant objects and operations and the construction of plans to achieve them, using objects and operations as components, are processes which are central to human cognition. The aim of the present paper is to suggest that relevance-based goal management processes are consistent with recent neuropsychological evidence that the human cognitive apparatus is duplex in nature. Furthermore, relevance information can provide a much-needed bridge between connectionist networks and the symbolic planning modules that characterise mature human cognition. The paper explores some phenomena, such as ethical reasoning, that have not been explained within previous theoretical frameworks. Finally, it is argued that, in addition to offering new explanations of familiar phenomena, the theoretical analysis of cognitive processes developed in the early part of the paper also suggests a range of novel technological interventions. Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, cognitive technology, ethics, goal management, goals, motivation-action nexus, planning systems, problem-solving, relevance, symbol-connection hybridism, Theory of Relevance In: International Journal of Cognition and Technology 1:2 . 2002. (pp. 187–232) Planning and the neurotechnology of social behaviour Suzanne Meenan, Psychology Department, Oxford Brookes University Roger Lindsay, Psychology Department, Oxford Brookes University The human brain has a remarkable ability to generate plans for sequences of actions that allow human agents to co-operate with and to manipulate the behaviour of others. It is widely claimed that the operations underlying plan developments, behaviour sequencing and inhibition of inappropriate responses to the environment are carried out in the prefrontal cortex. This implies that the prefrontal cortex is a natural system with the capacity to utilise cognitive technology. The present paper argues that social competence is a manifestation of action planning in which other agents feature as plan elements. Accordingly, plans that involve other agents are expected to be more complex than plans which do not. In the light of evidence that negative information makes particularly heavy processing demands, social judgements involving prohibition or unacceptability are expected to create most difficulty for the human action planning system. These assumptions were tested by measuring the ability of patients with prefrontal injuries to detect anomalous action sequences, using a specially constructed Action Acceptability Test. It was hypothesised that if the frontal lobes play a major role in action planning, patients with frontal lobe injuries should show impaired ability to detect faulty action plans, particularly when such plans relate to complex social action sequences, and action sequences involving unacceptable behaviours. The hypotheses were generally supported as frontal-injury patients proved to be worse at detecting both complex social sequences and deviant action sequences than participants with non-frontal injuries and normal control participants. The results of the study are consistent with the view that human social competence results from the cognitive processes associated with action planning and the data also supports the claim that action planning processes are specifically disrupted by damage to the prefrontal cortex. The findings provide some confirmation for the Cognitive Technology perspective, in that action planning does seem to be physically associated with a specific brain area, and including social agents and deviations from acceptability in action plans do seem to be manipulations that operate to make action plans more difficult to process, hence causing more errors in individuals with damage to the prefrontal cortex. The results also provide some encouragement for the belief that new cognitive tools can be constructed that link brain processes to other levels of description, such as social behaviour. The Action Acceptability Test, a prognostic tool developed to predict the social competence of frontal-injury patients, is offered as one such example. Keywords: acceptability judgements, action, action planning, cognitive technology, frontal lobes In: International Journal of Cognition and Technology 1:2 . 2002. (pp. 233–274) Looking under the rug: Context and context-aware artifacts Christopher Lueg, University of Technology, Sydney Technological progress allows for the development of “intelligent” gadgets that are much smaller and more powerful than the bulky desktop computers that were around just a few years ago. Technology-oriented research communities understand these gadgets as enablers of scenarios that were widely considered science fiction just a few years ago: the expectation is that embedded and invisible technology calms our lives by removing the annoyances. Everyday life, however, is shaped by what people do, how they do it, and how they perceive what they are doing. The idea is that technology becomes context-aware in order to suit everyday life. So far, however, artifacts do not exhibit context-awareness beyond trivial notions of context. The question I address in this paper is to what extent artifacts can reasonably by expected to become context-aware. My impression is that the very idea of context-aware artifacts is closely related to much older ideas about intelligent machines pursued (with limited success) in the realm of classical artificial intelligence. Keywords: cognitive technology, context aware artifacts, context modeling, frame problem, situatedness, ubiquitous computing In: International Journal of Cognition and Technology 1:2 . 2002. (pp. 287–302) Aims and Objectives of the Cognitive Technology Society A concern for the impact on human cognition of developments in information technology is at the centre of the Society's activities. It aims to bring together scientists, educationalists and other individuals working in business and industrial fields concerned with the technological dissemination of information. The Society promotes globally the principles of the fast-emerging discipline of CT, through international conferences and workshops, various publications, and other means of reaching interested audiences. Given the breadth of research highly relevant to the Society's goals, it provides an intellectual focus and acts as a catalyst in promoting forward- thinking in this field. Interest in Cognitive Technology (CT) as an emerging academic discipline dates back to 1992, when a small group of staff at the City University of Hong Kong began exploring the ways in which developments in information technology have implications for human cognition. This led to the founding of the Cognitive Technology Society, in 1995, which, to date, has seen the organisation of three international conferences, the publication of two conference proceedings, and three edited volumes of contributions to the development of CT methodology by leading international scholars. Issues Raised by the Society Current office-bearers The Executive Committee President: Barbara Gorayska, City University Vice President: Jonathon Marsh, Hong Kong University 2nd Vice President: Jacob L. Mey, Professor Emeritus, Odense University Secretary: Ho Mun Chan, City University Treasurer: Kevin Cox, Canberra The Board of Governors Frank Biocca Michigan State University, USA Kerstin Dautenhahn The University of Reading, UK David Good Cambridge University, UK Hartmut Haberland Roskilde University, Denmark   Douglas Herrmann Indiana State University, USA Richard Janney The University of Munich, Germany Tosiyasu L. Kunii Hosei University, Japan Kari Kuutti The University of Oulu, Finland Myron W. Krueger Artificial Reality Corporation, USA Chrystopher Nehaniv The University of Hertfordshire, UK http://www.praxagora.com/stevet/netfuture/ A publication of The Nature Institute NetFuture is "a largely undiscovered national treasure" (Peter J. Denning, New York Times , November 25, 1999). Here is what other readers have said about NetFuture. NetFuture is an electronic newsletter with postings every two-to-four weeks or so. It looks beyond the generally recognized "risks" of computer use such as privacy violations, unequal access, censorship, and dangerous computer glitches. It seeks especially to address those deep levels at which we half-consciously shape technology and are shaped by it. What is half-conscious can, after all, be made fully conscious, and we can take responsibility for it. The editor of NetFuture is Steve Talbott ( [email_address] ). Andy Clark – Natural Born cyborgs From Publishers Weekly Cyborgs have long been a part of America's cinematic imagination (think Arnold Schwarzenegger's Terminator), but Clark says they're very much a reality. Not only that; pretty much everyone is a cyborg already, according to the author, who heads up Indiana University's cognitive science program. With our laptops, cell phones and PDAs, we're all wired to the hilt and becoming more so every day. As Clark points out, "the mind is just less and less in the head"; when we need information, we usually fire up our PC and access it elsewhere. Clark is at his best when he's writing for a wide audience, distilling arcane technological advances into their essential meaning. But sometimes his sheer enthusiasm for the subject takes over, and the book feels as if it's intended only for tech wonks who can appreciate the minutiae of various mind-machine experiments. Clark gives a passing nod to the negative consequences of an increasingly cyborg world-social alienation, information overload-but retains his essentially positive take on the "biotechnological merger" that is transforming so many people's lives. Copyright 2003 Reed Business Information, Inc. From Booklist Cognitive scientist Clark believes we are liberating our minds, thanks to our penchant for inventing tools that extend our abilities to think and communicate, starting with the basics of pen and paper and moving on to ever more sophisticated forms of computers. In this lively and provocative treatise, Clark declares that we are, in fact, "human-technology symbionts" or "natural-born cyborgs," always seeking ways to enhance our biological mental capacities through technology, an intriguing claim... read more Book Description From Robocop to the Terminator to Eve 8, no image better captures our deepest fears about technology than the cyborg, the person who is both flesh and metal, brain and electronics. But philosopher and cognitive scientist Andy Clark sees it differently. Cyborgs, he writes, are not something to be feared--we already are cyborgs. In Natural-Born Cyborgs, Clark argues that what makes humans so different from other species is our capacity to fully incorporate tools and supporting cultural practices into our existence. Technology as simple as writing on a sketchpad, as familiar as Google or a cellular phone, and as potentially revolutionary as mind-extending neural implants--all exploit our brains' astonishingly plastic nature. Our minds are primed to seek out and incorporate non-biological resources, so that we actually think and feel through our best technologies. Drawing on his expertise in cognitive science, Clark demonstrates that our sense of self and of physical presence can be expanded to a remarkable extent, placing the long-existing telephone and the emerging technology of telepresence on the same continuum. He explores ways in which we have adapted our lives to make use of technology (the measurement of time, for example, has wrought enormous changes in human existence), as well as ways in which increasingly fluid technologies can adapt to individual users during normal use. Bio-technological unions, Clark argues, are evolving with a speed never seen before in history. As we enter an age of wearable computers, sensory augmentation, wireless devices, intelligent environments, thought-controlled prosthetics, and rapid-fire information search and retrieval, the line between the user and her tools grows thinner day by day. ""This double whammy of plastic brains and increasingly responsive and well-fitted tools creates an unprecedented opportunity for ever-closer kinds of human-machine merger,"" he writes, arguing that such a merger is entirely natural. A stunning new look at the human brain and the human self, Natural Born Cyborgs reveals how our technology is indeed inseparable from who we are and how we think. Key thoughts: Improve learning, decrease aging problems, repair genetic damage, Big economic: energy, light-strong materials, sense-respond materials, health & drugs, smart info-comm machines + NLP, pervasive sensors-cameras-wireless, robots, smarter organizations (collective IQ) - metrics (processing, storage, communication, weight-strength, resolution, energy, personalization-biometrics-user-aware, location-camera-context-aware) Bio: http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Units/philosophy/faculty/aclark.html Andy Clark  Professor of Philosophy and Cognitive Science in the School of Cognitive and Computing Sciences Office Hours: Fridays 12.30 - 2.00 Office: COGS 5A16 Tel.: 01273 678501  (Internal: 8501) E-mail: andycl@cogs.susx.ac.uk   Andy Clark is a philosopher and cognitive scientist. Until 2000 he was Director of the Philosophy/Neuroscience/Psychology Program at Washington University in St Louis, USA. ----------------------------- Andy writes: Research Interests. My prevailing interest lies in the implications of Cognitive Scientific research for a wide variety of conceptual and philosophical issues. Work on connectionism or Artificial Neural Networks challenges the more 'logicist', rule-and -symbol image that prevailed in early work on Artificial Intelligence. Work on the role of body and local environmental structure in promoting adaptive success suggests, in addition, that natural intelligence is intrinsically embodied and involves a surprisingly intimate dance between neural and extra-neural factors. My most recent work investigates the relations between these twin foci (neural nets and embodied action). Other topics of special interest include the relation between thought and language (how language transforms the space of reason), the respective roles of computational, representational, and dynamical analyses in Cognitive Science, work on real-world robotics and Animate Vision, and the interplay between individual cognition and the wider webs of social structure and technological artifact. SOME RECENT PUBLICATIONS : BEING THERE: PUTTING BRAIN, BODY AND WORLD TOGETHER AGAIN (MIT Press, 1997). MINDWARE: AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PHILOSOPHY OF COGNITIVE SCIENCE (Oxford University Press, In Press)  "The Dynamical Challenge" COGNITIVE SCIENCE 21:4:1997 p 461-481 "The Extended Mind" (with Dave Chalmers) ANALYSIS 58: 1: 1998 p.7-19 To be reprinted in THE PHILOSOPHER'S ANNUAL vol XXI  "Time and Mind" JOURNAL OF PHILOSOPHY: XCV: 7 :1998: p. 354-376 "Vision and Visuomotor Action" JOURNAL OF CONSCIOUSNESS STUDIES 6:11-12: 1999. p.1-18  "A Case Where Access Implies Qualia?" ANALYSIS 60:1:2000 p.30-38  Book Review: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0195148665/qid=1076281245/sr=1-2/ref=sr_1_2/103-3454405-6368663?v=glance&s=books From Publishers Weekly Cyborgs have long been a part of America's cinematic imagination (think Arnold Schwarzenegger's Terminator), but Clark says they're very much a reality. Not only that; pretty much everyone is a cyborg already, according to the author, who heads up Indiana University's cognitive science program. With our laptops, cell phones and PDAs, we're all wired to the hilt and becoming more so every day. As Clark points out, "the mind is just less and less in the head"; when we need information, we usually fire up our PC and access it elsewhere. Clark is at his best when he's writing for a wide audience, distilling arcane technological advances into their essential meaning. But sometimes his sheer enthusiasm for the subject takes over, and the book feels as if it's intended only for tech wonks who can appreciate the minutiae of various mind-machine experiments. Clark gives a passing nod to the negative consequences of an increasingly cyborg world-social alienation, information overload-but retains his essentially positive take on the "biotechnological merger" that is transforming so many people's lives. Copyright 2003 Reed Business Information, Inc. From Booklist Cognitive scientist Clark believes we are liberating our minds, thanks to our penchant for inventing tools that extend our abilities to think and communicate, starting with the basics of pen and paper and moving on to ever more sophisticated forms of computers. In this lively and provocative treatise, Clark declares that we are, in fact, "human-technology symbionts" or "natural-born cyborgs," always seeking ways to enhance our biological mental capacities through technology, an intriguing claim... read more Book Description From Robocop to the Terminator to Eve 8, no image better captures our deepest fears about technology than the cyborg, the person who is both flesh and metal, brain and electronics. But philosopher and cognitive scientist Andy Clark sees it differently. Cyborgs, he writes, are not something to be feared--we already are cyborgs. In Natural-Born Cyborgs, Clark argues that what makes humans so different from other species is our capacity to fully incorporate tools and supporting cultural practices into our existence. Technology as simple as writing on a sketchpad, as familiar as Google or a cellular phone, and as potentially revolutionary as mind-extending neural implants--all exploit our brains' astonishingly plastic nature. Our minds are primed to seek out and incorporate non-biological resources, so that we actually think and feel through our best technologies. Drawing on his expertise in cognitive science, Clark demonstrates that our sense of self and of physical presence can be expanded to a remarkable extent, placing the long-existing telephone and the emerging technology of telepresence on the same continuum. He explores ways in which we have adapted our lives to make use of technology (the measurement of time, for example, has wrought enormous changes in human existence), as well as ways in which increasingly fluid technologies can adapt to individual users during normal use. Bio-technological unions, Clark argues, are evolving with a speed never seen before in history. As we enter an age of wearable computers, sensory augmentation, wireless devices, intelligent environments, thought-controlled prosthetics, and rapid-fire information search and retrieval, the line between the user and her tools grows thinner day by day. ""This double whammy of plastic brains and increasingly responsive and well-fitted tools creates an unprecedented opportunity for ever-closer kinds of human-machine merger,"" he writes, arguing that such a merger is entirely natural. A stunning new look at the human brain and the human self, Natural Born Cyborgs reveals how our technology is indeed inseparable from who we are and how we think.
  • Bio: http://www.nsf.gov/od/lpa/forum/colwell/rrcbio.htm Dr. Rita R. Colwell Director National Science Foundation Dr. Rita R. Colwell became the 11th Director of the National Science Foundation on August 4, 1998. Since taking office, Dr. Colwell has spearheaded the agency's emphases in K-12 science and mathematics education, graduate science and engineering education/training and the increased participation of women and minorities in science and engineering. Her policy approach has enabled the agency to strengthen its core activities, as well as establish support for major initiatives, including Nanotechnology, Biocomplexity, Information Technology, Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences and the 21st Century Workforce. In her capacity as NSF Director, she serves as Co-chair of the Committee on Science of the National Science and Technology Council. Under her leadership, the Foundation has received significant budget increases, and its funding recently reached a level of more than $5.3 billion. Before coming to NSF, Dr. Colwell was President of the University of Maryland Biotechnology Institute, 1991-1998, and she remains Professor of Microbiology and Biotechnology (on leave) at the University Maryland. She was also a member of the National Science Board from 1984 to 1990. Dr. Colwell has held many advisory positions in the U.S. Government, non-profit science policy organizations, and private foundations, as well as in the international scientific research community. She is a nationally respected scientist and educator, and has authored or co-authored 16 books and more than 600 scientific publications. She produced the award-winning film, Invisible Seas , and has served on editorial boards of numerous scientific journals. She is the recipient of numerous awards, including the Medal of Distinction from Columbia University, the Gold Medal of Charles University, Prague, the UCLA Medal from the University of California, Los Angeles, and the Alumna Summa Laude Dignata from the University of Washington, Seattle. Dr. Colwell has also been awarded 34 honorary degrees from institutions of higher education, including her Alma Mater, Purdue University. Dr. Colwell is an honorary member of the microbiological societies of the UK, France, Israel, Bangladesh, and the U.S. and has held several honorary professorships, including the University of Queensland, Australia. A geological site in Antarctica, Colwell Massif, has been named in recognition of her work in the polar regions. Dr. Colwell has previously served as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the American Academy of Microbiology and also as President of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the Washington Academy of Sciences, the American Society for Microbiology, the Sigma Xi National Science Honorary Society, and the International Union of Microbiological Societies. Dr. Colwell is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and The American Philosophical Society. Born in Beverly, Massachusetts, Dr. Colwell holds a B.S. in Bacteriology and an M.S. in Genetics, from Purdue University, and a Ph.D. in Oceanography from the University of Washington.
  • Sun’s largest customer is IBM. Oracle is also a partner with IBM. Co-opetition point.
  • The new services arm represents an historic step in the continued evolution of IBM Research and how its innovations are refined and delivered. On Demand Innovation Services marks the first time IBM Research has created a formal, customer facing organization. It represents its biggest organizational shift since the early 1990's when the division expanded its connections with product group development and grew its computer science expertise from about 10% of its population to more than 50% now. During the last decade, IBM built much of its $13 billion Software Group from a base of technologies invented in IBM Research "The role of IT research and the kinds of problems researchers should be solving must change as the industry enters a services-led on demand era."
  • This talk will covers three topics: A stimulus, a response, and an evolution Stimulus: Service Growth (for the World and IBM) Response: Service Science Priorities (from the Cambridge University report and the Arizona State University report) Evolution: Service science for a Smarter Planet – tries to answer a series of questions - What is smarter planet - What improves quality-of-life - What is a service system? What is service science? - What’s the skills goal? - Where are projects happening? - Where is the science? Today, at IBM we are applying service science to help build a Smarter Planet, one that is instrumented, interconnected, and intelligent through better decision-making from improved analytics and models of complex service system networks. We are working together with government, academics, and industry partners to build Smarter Cities in a growing number of developed and emerging nations around the world.
  • This slides was created by IBM GMU External Relations For information or queries about this presentation please contact: Megan Rosier , Manager, GMU External Relations – [email_address] Karen Davis , Director, GMU External Relations – [email_address]
  • This slides was created by IBM GMU External Relations For information or queries about this presentation please contact: Megan Rosier , Manager, GMU External Relations – [email_address] Karen Davis , Director, GMU External Relations – [email_address]
  • This slides was created by IBM GMU External Relations For information or queries about this presentation please contact: Megan Rosier , Manager, GMU External Relations – [email_address] Karen Davis , Director, GMU External Relations – [email_address]
  • This slides was created by IBM GMU External Relations For information or queries about this presentation please contact: Megan Rosier , Manager, GMU External Relations – [email_address] Karen Davis , Director, GMU External Relations – [email_address] So how did we do in 2011....(talk through the results) The results show that IBM is growing its footprint across the Growth Markets by continuing to deliver creative solutions to very complex challenges. We are helping governments and organisations integrate systems and services where they have never before (banking sector, CEE; cities and their services Our business analytics solutions helped our clients leverage massive amounts of data and content to gain insight and optimize results. This year, business analytics grew 16 percent. Our Smarter Planet initiatives generated close to 50 percent growth. Smarter Commerce in particular is gaining momentum by helping companies buy, market, sell and service their products and services. We’re not just addressing an existing market, we’re actually making markets. In cloud, we’re helping our clients improve the economics of IT. This year, we continued to expand our offerings, and our cloud revenue in 2011 was more than three times the prior year. With powerful contribution from these growth initiatives, we delivered 7 percent revenue growth. Our belief is that the opportunities for growth to continue in 2012 is significant, despite the predictions of slowing GDP and increasing tensions (financial and political) in parts of the world
  • This slides was created by IBM GMU External Relations For information or queries about this presentation please contact: Megan Rosier , Manager, GMU External Relations – [email_address] Karen Davis , Director, GMU External Relations – [email_address]
  • This slides was created by IBM GMU External Relations For information or queries about this presentation please contact: Megan Rosier , Manager, GMU External Relations – [email_address] Karen Davis , Director, GMU External Relations – [email_address]
  • Both individual people and institutions/organizations are learning… this is the vision of the educational continuum… http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/education-for-a-smarter-planet.html
  • The evolution of service science is to apply service science to create a Smarter Planet. What is smarter planet? A smarter planet is built out of many harmonized smarter systems, systems that are instrumented, interconnected, and intelligent (data, models, and analytics software are used to make better decisions) The world is instrumented meaning everything has computers, cameras, gps or other sensors – cars, stop lights, signs, roads, hospitals, retail stores, rivers, bridges, etc.. The world is getting more and more interconnected. If we could capture the right data and analyze it, we can make our planet smarter. IBM has been working on cleaning up pollution in Galway Bay, Ireland. The marine scientists told the IBMers that the mussels in the water close their shells when something bad enters the water. So IBM put sensors in some of the mussels and connected the sensors to an alert system and visualization system. When a pollutant enters the water, the mussels shut their shells, the sensors sends an alert and water management officials begin to take action to clean it up. Over time, they realize that a particular ship may be coming into the bay every other Tuesday, causing the problem, and they can go after the ship company to not drop pollutants or to find another way to rid of waste. This optimization takes place with other causes of the pollutants.
  • What improves quality of life? Service system innovations. Every day we are customers of 13 types of service systems. If any of them fail, we have a “bad day” (Katrina New Orleans) I have been to two service science related conferences recently, one in Japan on Service Design and one in Portugal on Service Marketing… the papers from the proceedings of the conferences mapped onto all of these types of service systems… The numbers in yellow: 61 papers Service Design (Japan) / 75 papers Service Marketing (Portugal) / 78 Papers Service-Oriented Computing (US) Number in yellow Fist number: Service Design Conference, Japan 2 nd International Service Innovation Design Conference (ISIDC 2010), Future University Hakodate, Japan Second number Service Marketing Conference, Portugal, AMA SERVSIG at U Porto, Portugal Numbers in yellow: Number of AMA ServSIG 2010 abstracts that study each type of service system… (http://www.servsig2010.org/) Of 132 total abstracts… 10 studies all types of service systems 19 could not be classified In a moment we will look at definitions of quality of life, but for the moment, consider that everyday we all depend on 13 systems to have a relatively high quality of life, and if any one of these systems goes out or stops providing good service, then our quality of life suffers…. Transportation, Water, Food, Energy, Information, Buildings, Retail, Banking & Financial Services (like credit cards), Healthcare, Education, and Government at the City, State, and National levels…. Volcanic ash, hurricanes, earthquakes, snow storms, floods are some of the types of natural disasters that impact the operation of these service systems – but human made challenges like budget crises, bank failures, terrorism, wars, etc. can also impact the operation of these 13 all important service systems. Moreover, even when these systems are operating normally – we humans may not be satisfied with the quality of service or the quality of jobs in these systems. We want both the quality of service and the quality of jobs in these systems to get better year over year, ideally, but sometimes, like healthcare and education, the cost of maintaining existing quality levels seems to be a challenge as costs continue to rise… why is that “smarter” or sustainable innovation, which continuously reduces waste, and expands the capabilities of these systems is so hard to achieve? Can we truly achieve smarter systems and modern service? A number of organizations are asking these questions – and before looking at how these questions are being formalized into grand challenge questions for society – let’s look at what an IBM report concluded after surveying about 400 economists…. ==================== Quality of life for the average citizen (voter) depends on the quality of service and quality of jobs in 13 basic systems….. Local progress (from the perspective of the average citizen or voter) can be defined for our purposes as (quality of service & jobs) + returns (the provider, which is really the investor perspective, the risk taker in provisioning the service) + security (the authority or government perspective on the cost of maintaining order, and dealing with rules and rule violations) + smarter (or the first derivative – does all this get better over time – parents often talk about wanting to help create a better world for their children - sustainable innovation, means reducing waste, being good stewards of the planet, and expanding our capabilities to do things better and respond to challenges and outlier events better)…. Without putting too fine a point on it, most of the really important grand challenges in business and society relate to improving quality of life. Quality of life is a function of both quality of service from systems and quality of opportunities (or jobs) in systems. We have identified 13 systems that fit into three major categories – systems that focus on basic things people need, systems that focus on people’s activities and development, and systems that focus on governing. IBM’s Institute for Business Value has identified a $4 trillion challenge that can be addressed by using a system of systems approach. Employment data… 2008 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.t02.htm A. 3+0.4+0.5+8.9+1.4+2.0=16.2 B. C.13.1+1.8=14.9 Total 150,932 (100%) Transportation (Transportation and Warehousing 4,505 (3%)) Water & Waste (Utilities 560 (0.4%)) Food & Manufacturing (Mining 717 (0.5%), Manufacturing 13,431 (8.9%), Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 2,098 (1.4%)) Energy & Electricity Information (Information 2,997 (2%)) Construction (Construction 7,215 (4.8%)) Retail & Hospitality (Wholesale Trade 5,964 (4.0%), Retail Trade 15,356 (10.2%), Leisure and hospitality 13,459 (8.9%)) Financial & Banking/Business & Consulting (Financial activities 8,146 (5.4%), Professional and business services 17,778 (11.8%), Other services 6,333 (4.2%)) Healthcare (Healthcare and social assistance 15,819 (10.5%) Education (Educational services 3,037 (2%), Self-employed and unpaid family 9,313 (6.2%), Secondary jobs self-employed and unpaid family 1,524 (1.0%)) City Gov State Gov (State and local government 19,735 (13.1%)) Federal Gov (Federal government 2,764 (1.8%))
  • Researchers at University of Cambridge hosted industry and academic service researchers to create a framework for service innovation success… The framework is outlined in five columns – service innovation is the priority, we need to study service systems and networks, we call this study service science, and multiple stakeholders have to align to advance service science, and double investment in service research and education by 2015. You can read the complete report at the following URL: http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ssme/ To ensure we are making progress, we need to see how much government, academia, and industry are investing in service research and innovation. IfM and IBM (2008). Succeeding through service innovation: A service perspective for education, research, business and government. Cambridge, UK: University of Cambridge Institute for Manufacturing.
  • http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/ And the NAE’s Engineering Grand Challenge problems include – making solar energy economical – which fits into category 4. Smarter Energy… there are at least two NAE grand challenges that related to 10. Smarter Education systems – Advance personalized learning and Engineer the tools of scientific discovery… one might also want to include enhance virtual reality and reverse engineer the brain – and I included those under 5. Smarter Information systems… the point is that solving any one of these 14 NAE grand challenge problems has the potential to have significant impact on one or more of the 13 systems that we all depend on every day for quality of life… And so now would be a good time to say a little bit more about the component measurements and the challenges of defining quality of life…
  • As we think about the future of cities and universities, as an optimist, I see future cities and universities better than they are today… what IBM calls a Smarter Planet is such a vision -- today cities and universities sustain our high quality of living on the planet -- we believe they do an even better job in the future – in future cities and universities, we can all do a better job of applying, creating, and transferring knowledge generation over generation… http://www.measureofamerica.org/docs/APortraitOfCA.pdf In a recent survey of young Californians, 90% said internet access was essential for a high quality of life, and 50% said access to a smart phone was essential for a high quality of life. Some would say that the middle-class person today lives better than king’s did a thousand years ago… perhaps that is true in terms of material comforts… and in 1836 Nathan Rothschild the richest many in the British Empire, perhaps the world died of an infected abscess… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathan_Mayer_Rothschild By the time an infected abscess caused his death in 1836, his personal net worth amounted to 0.62% of British national income.
  • There are many visions of the future – and many show innovations that improve quality of life… by improving the way we interact to co-create value with others… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZkHpNnXLB0
  • However, it is also arguable that universities are important for resiliency… Source: http://www.nyu.edu/about/leadership-university-administration/office-of-the-president/redirect/speeches-statements/global-network-university-reflection.html
  • Permission to re-distribute granted by Jim Spohrer – please request via email (spohrer@us.ibm.com) This talk provided a concise introduction to SSME+D evolving, and applying Service Science to build a Smarter Planet… Reference content from this presentation as: Spohrer, JC (2010) Presentation: SSME+D (for Design) Evolving: Update on Service Science Progress & Directions. Event. Place. Date. Permission to redistribute granted upon request to spohrer@us.ibm.com But I want to end by sharing some relevant quotes… The first you may have seen on TV or heard on the radio – it is from IBM – Instrumented, Interconnected, Intellient – Let’s build a smarter planet (more on this one shortly) Second, If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities, (as we will see cities turn out to be ideal building blocks to get right for a number of reasons) And if we focus on cities, then the quote from the Foundation Metropolitan paints the right picture, cities learning from cities learning from cities… The next is probably the best known quote in the group “think global, act local” (we will revisit this important thought) Since all the major cities of the world have one or more universities, the next quote is of interest “the future is born in universities” And two more well known quotes about the future – the best way to predict the future is to build it, and the future is already here… it is just not evenly distributed. The next quote is an important one for discipline specialists at universities to keep in mind – real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries (so be on guard for myopic solutions that appear too good to be true, they often are!)… Because if we are not careful, today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions… And since we cannot anticipate all risks or quickly resolve them once we notice them, we should probably never forget what HG Wells said - that history is a race between education and catastrophe… In a world of accelerating change, this last statement also serves as a reminder that the pace of real innovation in education is a good target for study in terms of smarter systems and modern service…
  • The reasonable questions: What is a service system? What is service science?
  • There are many opportunities for educational institutions to specialize. Better tuned competence of individuals allows graduates to hit the ground running and better fill roles in business and societal institutions…. Better general education will allow more rapid learning of an arbitrary area of specialization, and create a more flexible labor force… All service systems transform something – perhaps the location, availability, and configuration of materials (flow of things), or perhaps people and what they do (people’s activities), or perhaps the rules of the game, constraints and consequences (governance). How to visualize service science? The systems-disciplines matrix… SSMED or service science, for short, provides a transdisciplinary framework for organizing student learning around 13 systems areas and 13 specialized academic discipline areas. We have already discussed the 13 systems areas, and the three groups (flows, human activity, and governing)… the discipline areas are organized into four areas that deal with stakeholders, resources, change, and value creation. If we have time, I have included some back-up slides that describes service science in the next level of detail. However, to understand the transdisciplinary framework, one just needs to appreciate that discipline areas such as marketing, operations, public policy, strategy, psychology, industrial engineering, computer science, organizational science, economics, statistics, and others can be applied to any of the 13 types of systems. Service science provides a transdisciplinary framework to organize problem sets and exercises that help students in any of these disciplines become better T-shaped professionals, and ready for teamwork on multidisciplinary teams working to improve any type of service system. As existing disciplines graduate more students who are T-shaped, and have exposure to service science, the world becomes better prepared to solve grand challenge problems and create smarter systems that deliver modern service. Especially, where students have had the opportunity to work as part of an urban innovation center that links their university with real-world problems in their urban environment – they will have important experiences to help them contribute to solving grand challenge problems. ================================================ SSMED (Service Science, Management, Engineering and Design) Systems change over their life cycle… what is inside become outside and vice versa In the course of the lifecycle… systems are merged and divested (fusion and fission) systems are insourced and outsourced (leased/contracted relations) systems are input and output (owner ship relations) SSMED standard should ensure people know 13 systems and 13 disciplines/professions (the key is knowing them all to the right level to be able to communicate and problem-solve effectively) Multidisciplinary teams – solve problems that require discipline knowledge Interdisciplinary teams – solve harder problems, because they create new knowledge in between disciplines Transdisciplinary teams – solve very hard problems, because the people know discipline and system knowledge Ross Dawson says “Collaboration drives everything” in his talk about the future of universities… https://deimos.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/BrowsePrivately/griffith.edu.au.3684852440
  • Sources http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM#cite_note-10K-0 http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/33341.wss http://www.fiercecio.com/press-releases/ibm-reports-2010-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-nyse-ibm-q4
  • The Up-Skill Cycle People flow through the system of entities… As they flow they are upskilled…. Entities: Mature IBM Business Unit: From mature-business unit Acquired-IBM Business Unit: From IBM “acquired company” business unit University: From university role Venture: From venture that spun off from a university Other: None of the above One possible path A long-time IBMer is in an IBM business unit doing, say “finance” The IBMer’s business unit receives the 5% annual budget cut The IBMer moves to a new IBM acquisition to help the new acquisition adopt/learn IBM finance procedures After that the IBMer moves to a university as an IBMer on Campus The IBMer might work in a department/discipline, in the university incubator, or a university start-up, or even be a student at the university Eventually the IBMer signs up to be pat of a new venture that is spinning off from the university The new venture is aligned with IBM via HW, SW, or other IBM offerings/strategy IBM helps scale up the new venture global IBM might decide to acquire the new venture The IBM in the acquired new venture helps the new venture become a high growth business unit of IBM After the new IBM business unit asymptotes on revenue and profit improves, it has become a mature business unit Now the IBMer is back in a mature business unit, and the cycle repeats… A long-time IBMer is in an IBM business unit doing, say “finance” The IBMer’s business unit receives the 5% annual budget cut Transitions: Self-loop IBMer stays in mature business unit IBMer transitions from mature business unit to a newly acquired IBM acquisition IBMer transitions from mature business unit to a university role IBMer transitions from mature business unit to a new venture that spun off from a university IBMer transitions from mature business unit to an entity not mentioned above (some where else)
  • Universities connect information flows between other HSS, cities, states, nations Local optimizations can spread quickly to other HSS… Top 3000 cities: http://www.mongabay.com/cities_pop_02.htm Of course the opportunity is not just local – while local innovation impact the lives of staff, faculty, students and their families most directly – as cities partner more (twin city and sister city programs) and as universities also establish global collaborations with campuses in other regions of the world – the opportunity for better city-university partnerships is both local and global.
  • Service system entities learn to systematically exploit info & tech Learning Systems – Choice and Change Do = operate in comfort zone, applying existing knowledge Copy = to be the best, learn from the rest Invent = double monetize from internal use and external sales Add Rickets “Reaching the Goal” for Internal-External-Interaction Constraints. Explain Incremental-Radical-Super-Radical in terms of units (scientific measurement) For more on Exploitation-Exploration see below.. http://sonic.northwestern.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Keynote-Watts_Collective_Problems.pdf Lavie D & L Rosenkopf (2006) BALANCING EXPLORATION AND EXPLOITATION IN ALLIANCE FORMATION, The Academy of Management Journal, 49(4). 797-818. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.123.8271&rep=rep1&type=pdf “ Pressures for exploration. Whereas inertia drives firms’ tendencies to exploit, absorptive capacity facilitates counter pressures by furnishing the mechanism via which firms can identify the need for and direction of exploratory activities. Exploration is guided not only by inventing but also by learning from others (Huber, 1991; Levitt & March, 1988) and by employing external knowledge (March & Simon, 1958). Absorptive capacity, defined as the ability to value, assimilate, and apply external knowledge (Cohen & Levinthal, 1990), helps firms identify emerging opportunities and evaluate their prospects, thus enhancing exploration. It adjusts firms’ aspiration levels, so that they become attuned to learning opportunities and more proactive in exploring them. Indeed, prior research has demonstrated how absorptive capacity enhance organizational responsiveness and directs scientific and entrepreneurial discovery (Deeds, 2001; Rosenkopf & Nerkar, 2001). It also increases the likelihood of identifying external opportunities and can therefore lead to exploration in one or more domains of alliance formation.” For more on Run-Transform-Innovate see below… When I asked how he measures the performance and effectiveness of IBM's IT team, Hennessy pointed to its "run-to-transform" ratio. IBM's IT department is divided into three groups: a "run" organization that's responsible for keeping systems running smoothly; a "transform" team focused on business-process simplification and other business transformation; and an "innovate" unit that pursues leading-edge technology initiatives. Hennessy reports to Linda Sanford, IBM's senior VP of on-demand transformation and IT. Practicing what it preaches, IBM doesn't think of its IT organization as being merely an IT department. "We call it BT and IT," Hennessy says, giving business transformation equal billing to the software, systems, and services side of its mission. http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2009/04/ibm_cio_turns_d.html IBM CIO's Strategy: Run, Transform, Innovate Posted by John Foley on Apr 30, 2009 11:05 AM Like other CIOs, IBM's Mark Hennessy knows that a dollar saved on data center operations is a dollar earned for business-technology innovation. IBM has moved the dial on its IT budget 10 percentage points toward innovation in recent years, and Hennessy says there are still more operational efficiencies to be gained.I sat down with Hennessy for more than an hour recently in New York to talk about how he has adapted to being a CIO. A 25-year IBM veteran, he took over as CIO about 18 months ago, having spent most of his career on the business side, in sales, marketing, finance, and, most recently, as general manager of IBM's distribution sector, which works with clients in the retail, travel, transportation, and consumer products industries. Hennessy's IT team supports the company's strategy in three broad ways: by running and optimizing IBM's internal IT operations, by working with IBM business units in support of their objectives, and by facilitating company-wide collaboration, innovation, and technology requirements across 170 countries. In times past, IBM had as many as 128 different CIOs across its businesses. These days--in support of CEO Sam Palmisano's strategy of establishing a global, integrated enterprise--it has only one, and Hennessy is it. When I asked how he measures the performance and effectiveness of IBM's IT team, Hennessy pointed to its "run-to-transform" ratio. IBM's IT department is divided into three groups: a "run" organization that's responsible for keeping systems running smoothly; a "transform" team focused on business-process simplification and other business transformation; and an "innovate" unit that pursues leading-edge technology initiatives. A few years ago, IBM was spending 73% of its IT budget on keeping systems and services running and 27% on innovation. This year, its run-to-transform ratio will hit 63%-37%. Roughly speaking, IBM is shifting an additional 2% of its IT budget from run to innovation each year, and Hennessy has every expectation that his group will continue moving the ratio in that direction. "I don't see an end in sight," he says. In fact, Hennessy says that IBM's run-to-innovation ratio has improved more this year than last. "So it's actually accelerating for us," he says. Where do the efficiencies come from? The same place other CIOs find them. Server virtualization, data center consolidation (IBM has consolidated 155 data centers down to five), energy savings, applications simplification (from 15,000 apps to 4,500 apps), end user productivity, organizational collaboration, shifting skills globally, and business-process simplification. IBM has internal IT projects underway now in the areas of its supply chain, finance, workforce management, and order-to-cash processes. Hennessy reports to Linda Sanford, IBM's senior VP of on-demand transformation and IT. Practicing what it preaches, IBM doesn't think of its IT organization as being merely an IT department. "We call it BT and IT," Hennessy says, giving business transformation equal billing to the software, systems, and services side of its mission.
  • In the Handbook of Service Science, and other publications, we have layed out the conceptual foundations of service science – the first approximation of terms we believe every service scientist should know… The world view is that of an ecology of service-system-entities. Ecology is the study of the populations of entities, and their interactions with each other and the environment Types of Service System Entities, Interactions, and Outcomes is what a service scientist studies. Service systems include: Person, Family/Household, Business, Citiy, Nation, University, Hospital, Call-Center, Data-Center, etc. – any legal entity that can own property and be sued We see that Resources (People, Technology, Information, Organizations) and Stakeholder (Customers, Providers, Authorities, Competitors) are part of the conceptual framework for service science.
  • In conclusion, let’s consider the big picture – starting with the big bang…. and evolution of the earth, life on earth, human life, cities, universities, and the modern world… the evolution of observed hierarchical-complexity Age of natural systems (age of the universe): Big Bang http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_the_universe Age of urban systems (age of complex human-made world): Oldest city http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_time_of_continuous_habitation (end of last Ice Age was about 20,000 years ago, about 5 million people on earth by 10,000 years ago) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/100k.html (last Ice Age was probably started about 70,000 years ago when a super volcano erupted blocking sun light) Many people still ask -- where is the science in the “Service Science?” One answer is that the science is hidden away in each of the component disciplines that study service systems, scientifically from their particular perspective… However, the big picture answer is “Ecology” - Ecology is the study of the abundance and distribution of entities (populations of things) in an environment… and how the entities interact with each other and their environment over successive generations of entities. The natural sciences (increasingly interdisciplinary) study the left side, using physics, chemistry, and biology Service science (originated as interdisciplinary) studies the right side, using history, economics, management, engineering, design, etc. Service science is still a young area, but from the growth of service in nations and businesses to the opportunity to apply service science to build a smarter planet, innovate service systems, and improve quality of life… it is an emerging science with bright future, and yes… it will continue to evolve : - ) Most people think of ecology in terms of living organisms, like plants and animals in a natural environment. However, the concept of ecology is more general and can be applied to entities as diverse as the populations of types of atoms in stars to the types of businesses in a national economy. I want to start my talk today on “service,” by first thinking broadly about ecologies of entities and their interactions. Eventually, we will get to human-made service system entities and human-made value-cocreation mechanisms… but for today, let’s really start at the very beginning – the big bang. About 14B years ago (indicated by the top of this purple bar), our universe started with a big bang. And through a process of known as fusion, stars turned populations of lighter atoms like hydrogen into heavier atoms like helium, and when stars of a certain size have done all the fusion they could, they would start slowing down, and eventually collapse rapidly, go nova, explode and send heavier atoms out into the universe, and eventually new stars form, and the process repeats over and over, creating stars with different populations of types of atoms, including heavier and heavier elments. So where did our sun and the earth come from…. Eventually after about ten billion years in the ecology of stars and atoms within stars, a very important star formed our sun (the yellow on the left) – and there were plenty of iron and nickel atoms swirling about as our sun formed, and began to burn 4.5B years ago, and the Earth formed about 4.3B years ago (the blue on the left)… In less than a billion years, the early earth evolved a remarkable ecology of complex molecules, including amino acids, and after less than a billion years, an ecology of bacteria took hold on early earth (the bright green on the left). The ecology of single cell bacteria flourished and after another billion years of interactions between the bacteria, the first multicellular organisms formed, and soon the ecology of sponges (the light blue on the left) and other multi-cellular entities began to spread out across the earth. Then after nearly two billion years, a type of division of labor between the cells in multicelluar organism lead to entities with cells acting as neurons in the first clams (the red on the left), and these neurons allowed the clams to open and close at the right time. After only 200 million years, tribolites appeared the first organisms with dense neural structures that could be called brains appeared (the black on the left), and then after about 300 million years, multicelluar organisms as complex as bees appeared (the olive on the left), and these were social insects, with division of labor among individuals in a population, with queens, drones, worker bees. So 200 million years ago, over 13B years after the big bang, the ecology of living entities is well established on planet earth, including social entities with brains and division of labor between individuals in a population…. Living in colonies that some have compared to human cities – where thousands of individuals live in close proximity and divide up the work that needs to be done to help the colony survive through many, many generations of individuals that come and go. Bees are still hear today. And their wingless cousins, called ants, have taken division of labor to incredible levels of complexity in ant cities in nearly every ecological niche on the planet, except under water. Now let’s look at the human ecology,and the formation of service system entities and value-cocreation mechanisms, a small portion of which is represented by the colored bar on the right. Recall bees appeared about 200 million years ago, a small but noticeable fraction of the age of the universe. Now take 1% of this little olive slice, which is 2 million years… that is how long people have been on earth, just one percent of this little olive slice here. What did people do in most of that 2million years? Basically, they spread out to every corner of the planet, and changed their skin color, eye colors, and hair colors, they spread out and became diverse with many different appearances and languages. It took most of that 200 millions just to spread out and cover most of the planet with people. When there was no more room to spread out the density of people in regions went up…. Now take 1% of that 2million years of human history which basically involved spreading out to every corner of the planet and becoming more diverse, recall ecology is the study of abundance and distribution and types of interactions, and 1% of that 2million years is just 20,000 years, and now divide that in half and that represents 10,000 years. The bar on the right represents 10,000 years or just 500 generations of people, if a generation is about 20 years. 500 generations ago humans built the first cities, prior to this there were no cities so the roughly 5M people spread out around the world 0% lived in cities, but about 500 generations ago the first cities formed, and division of labor and human-made service interactions based on division of labor took off – this is our human big bang – the explosion of division of labor in cities. Cities were the big bang for service scientists, because that is when the diversity of specialized roles and division of labor, which is at the heart of a knowledge-based service economy really begins to take off... So cities are the first really important type of human-made service system entities for service scientists to study, the people living in the city, the urban dwellers or citizens are both customers of and providers of service to each other, and division of labor is the first really important type of human-made value-cocreation mechanism for service scientists to study. (Note families are a very important type of service system entity, arguably more important than cities and certainly much older – however, family structure is more an evolution of primate family structure – and so in a sense is less of a human-made service system entity and more of an inherited service system entity… however, in the early cities often the trades were handed down father to son, and mother to daughter as early service businesses were often family run enterprises in which the children participated – so families specialized and the family names often reflect those specialization – for example, much later in England we get the family names like smith, mason, taylor, cooper, etc.) So to a service scientist, we are very excited about cities as important types of service system entities, and division of labor as an important type of value-cocreation mechanism, and all this really takes off in a big way just 500 generations ago when the world population was just getting to around 5M people spread out all around the world – so 10,000 years about about 1% of the worlds population was living in early versions of cities. It wasn’t until 1900 that 10% of the world’s then nearly 2B people lived in cities, and just this last decade that 50% of the worlds 6B people lived in cities, and by 2050 75% of the worlds projected 10B population will be urban dwellers. If there is a human-made service system that we need to design right, it is cities. It should be noted that the growth of what economist call the service sector, parallels almost exactly the growth of urban population size and increased division-of-labor opportunities that cities enable – so in a very real sense SERVICE GROWTH IS CITY GROWTH OR URBAN POPULATION GROWTH… in the last decade service jobs passed agriculture jobs for the first time, and urban dwellers passed rural dwellers for the first time. But I am starting to get ahead of myself, let’s look at how the human-made ecology of service system entities and value-cocreation mechanisms evolved over the last 10,000 years or 500 generations. The population of artifacts with written language on them takes off about 6000 years ago or about 300 generations ago (the yellow bar on the right). Expertise with symbols helped certain professions form – and the first computers were people writing and processing symbols - scribes were required, another division of labor – so the service of reading and writing, which had a limited market at first began to emerge to help keep better records. Scribes were in many ways the first computers, writing and reading back symbols – and could remember more and more accurately than anyone else. Written laws (blue on right) that govern human behavior in cities takes off about 5000 years ago – including laws about property rights, and punishment for crimes. Shortly there after, coins become quite common as the first type of standard monetary and weight measurement system (green on right). So legal and economic infrastructure for future service system entities come along about 5000 years ago, or 250 generations ago, with perhaps 2% of the population living in cities…. (historical footnote: Paper money notes don’t come along much until around about 1400 years ago – bank notes, so use of coins is significantly older than paper money, and paper money really required banks as service system entities before paper money could succeed.). About 50 generations ago, we get the emergence of another one of the great types of service system entities – namely universities (light blue line) – students are the customers, as well as the employers that need the students. Universities help feed the division of labor in cities that needed specialized skills, including the research discipline skills needed to deepen bodies of knowledge in particular discipline areas. The red line indicates the population of printing presses taking off in the world, and hence the number of books and newspapers. This was only about 500 years or 25 generations ago. Now university faculty and students could more easily get books, and cities began to expand as the world’s population grew, and more cities had universities as well. The black line indicates the beginning of the industrial revolution about 200 years ago, the sream engine, railroads, telegraph and proliferation of the next great type of service system entity – the manufacturing businesses - that benefited from standard parts, technological advances and scale economies, and required professional managers and engineers. About 100 years ago, universities began adding business schools to keep up with the demand for specialized business management skills, and many new engineering disciplines including civil engineering, mechanical engineering, chemical engineering, and electrical engineering, fuel specialization and division of labor. By 1900, just over 100 years ago, or 5 generations ago 10% of the worlds population, or about 200 million people were living in cities and many of those cities had universities or were starting universities. Again fueling specialization, division of labor, and the growth of service as a component of the economy measured by traditional economists. Finally, just 60 years ago or 3 generations ago, the electronic semiconductor transistor was developed (indicated by the olive colored line on the right), and the information age took off, and many information intensive service activities could now benefit from computers to improve technology (e.g., accounting) and many other areas. So to recap, cities are one of the oldest and most important type of service system and universities are an important and old type of service system, as well as many types of businesses. Service science is the study of service system entities, their abundance and distribution, and their interactions. Division of labor is one of the most important types of value cocreation mechanisms, and people often need specialized skills to fill roles in service systems. Service science like ecology studies entities and their interactions over successive generations. New types of human-made service system entities and value-cocreation mechanisms continue to form, like wikipedia and peer production systems. Age of Unvierse (Wikipedia) The age of the universe is the time elapsed between the Big Bang and the present day. Current theory and observations suggest that the universe is 13.75 ±0.17 billion years old. [1] Age of Sun The Sun was formed about 4.57 billion years ago when a hydrogen molecular cloud collapsed. [85] Solar formation is dated in two ways: the Sun's current main sequence age, determined using computer models of stellar evolution and nucleocosmochronology , is thought to be about 4.57 billion years. [86] This is in close accord with the radiometric date of the oldest Solar System material, at 4.567 billion years ago. [87] [88] Age of Earth The age of the Earth is around 4.54 billion years (4.54 × 109 years ± 1%). [1] [2] [3] This age has been determined by radiometric age dating of meteorite material and is consistent with the ages of the oldest-known terrestrial and lunar samples . The Sun , in comparison, is about 4.57 billion years old , about 30 million years older. Age of Bacteria (Uni-cellular life) The ancestors of modern bacteria were single-celled microorganisms that were the first forms of life to develop on earth, about 4 billion years ago. For about 3 billion years, all organisms were microscopic, and bacteria and archaea were the dominant forms of life. [22] [23] Although bacterial fossils exist, such as stromatolites , their lack of distinctive morphology prevents them from being used to examine the history of bacterial evolution, or to date the time of origin of a particular bacterial species. However, gene sequences can be used to reconstruct the bacterial phylogeny , and these studies indicate that bacteria diverged first from the archaeal/eukaryotic lineage. [24] The most recent common ancestor of bacteria and archaea was probably a hyperthermophile that lived about 2.5 billion–3.2 billion years ago. [25] [26] Cities (Wikipedia) Early cities developed in a number of regions of the ancient world. Mesopotamia can claim the earliest cities, particularly Eridu, Uruk, and Ur. After Mesopotamia, this culture arose in Syria and Anatolia, as shown by the city of Çatalhöyük (7500-5700BC). Writing (Wikipedia) Writing is an extension of human language across time and space. Writing most likely began as a consequence of political expansion in ancient cultures, which needed reliable means for transmitting information, maintaining financial accounts, keeping historical records, and similar activities. Around the 4th millennium BC, the complexity of trade and administration outgrew the power of memory, and writing became a more dependable method of recording and presenting transactions in a permanent form [2] . In both Mesoamerica and Ancient Egypt writing may have evolved through calendrics and a political necessity for recording historical and environmental events. Written Law (Wikipedia) The history of law is closely connected to the development of civilization . Ancient Egyptian law, dating as far back as 3000 BC, contained a civil code that was probably broken into twelve books. It was based on the concept of Ma'at , characterised by tradition, rhetorical speech, social equality and impartiality. [81] [82] By the 22nd century BC, the ancient Sumerian ruler Ur- Nammu had formulated the first law code , which consisted of casuistic statements ("if ... then ..."). Around 1760 BC, King Hammurabi further developed Babylonian law , by codifying and inscribing it in stone. Hammurabi placed several copies of his law code throughout the kingdom of Babylon as stelae , for the entire public to see; this became known as the Codex Hammurabi . The most intact copy of these stelae was discovered in the 19th century by British Assyriologists, and has since been fully transliterated and translated into various languages, including English, German, and French. [83] Money (Wikipedia) Many cultures around the world eventually developed the use of commodity money . The shekel was originally both a unit of currency and a unit of weight. [10] . The first usage of the term came from Mesopotamia circa 3000 BC. Societies in the Americas, Asia, Africa and Australia used shell money – usually, the shell of the money cowry ( Cypraea moneta ) were used. According to Herodotus , and most modern scholars, the Lydians were the first people to introduce the use of gold and silver coin . [11] It is thought that these first stamped coins were minted around 650–600 BC. [12] Universities (Wikipedia) Prior to their formal establishment, many medieval universities were run for hundreds of years as Christian cathedral schools or monastic schools ( Scholae monasticae ), in which monks and nuns taught classes; evidence of these immediate forerunners of the later university at many places dates back to the 6th century AD. [7] The first universities were the University of Bologna (1088), the University of Paris (c. 1150, later associated with the Sorbonne ), the University of Oxford (1167), the University of Palencia (1208), the University of Cambridge (1209), the University of Salamanca (1218), the University of Montpellier (1220), the University of Padua (1222), the University of Naples Federico II (1224), the University of Toulouse (1229). [8] [9] Printing and Books (Wikipedia) Johannes Gutenberg's work on the printing press began in approximately 1436 when he partnered with Andreas Dritzehn—a man he had previously instructed in gem-cutting—and Andreas Heilmann, owner of a paper mill. [34] However, it was not until a 1439 lawsuit against Gutenberg that an official record exists; witnesses' testimony discussed Gutenberg's types, an inventory of metals (including lead), and his type molds. [34]
  • KPIs = Key Performance Indicators, the measures of service system performance Focus on service system resources, access rights, stakeholders (value propositions), and measures (KPIs) Calculating ROI and Success Rate for an industrial service research group 4 outstanding at $100M each and 11 accomplishments at $10M each = $510M business impact result in 7 years 2 outstanding at $100M each and 9 accomplishments at $10M each = $290M business impact result in 6 years 290M/8x ROI = 36M of base funding for 210 Person-years (36M/210 = $172K/person base funding level) 210 person years over six years = 10,20,40,50,50,40 (in year one there were 10 people, in year two 20 people, in year 3 40 people, etc.) Accomplishments (12 PY, 3-5 person, 2-4 years) = expected 12 PY (4 x 3) Outstanding (24 PY additional, 6-10 persons, 2-4 years) = additional 24 PY (8 x 3) = +24 is 12+24 = 36 So 2 outstandings take 36 (36 PY) and 9 accomplishments 12 (12 PY) = 2 * 36 + 9 x 12 = 72 + 108 = 180 (one could ask if this double counts on outstandings, since it pre-supposes and earlier accomplishment – in fact most accomplishments have more than $100M impact, so this is OK). 180/210 = 0.86 = 86% success rate (a big debate in research organizations is what should the success rate be – 100% success rate probably implies you are not taking enough risk, so learning/returns will not be maximized long-term) (put another way – solving really, really hard problems is not 100% guaranteed, but if they are solved they can pay enormous dividends; sometimes more so than simpler problems to solve) CBM = Component Business Model (Models of over 70 industries, decomposed into 100-200 business components/service systems, with associated KPIs) IDG = Intelligent Document Gateway (Process improvement workbench - process automation, business rules engines, authoring capability, document scan capability, etc.) SDM = Solution Design Manager (complex service offerings delivered globally are hard to describe, cost, price, and allow teams to collaboratively develop and iterate) BIW = Business Insight Workbench (unstructured text analytics, data mining, structured analytics, automatic taxonomy, trend analysis, co-occurrence statistics, etc.) COBRA = Corporate Brand Reputation Analysis (data mine blogs and customer service data, etc. for insights) SIMPLE = Patent Analytics (data mine patents and technical publications, etc. for insights) IoFT = Impact of Future Technologies (future studies method to identify signposts, and data mine for trends, etc.)
  • For example, we are all part of at least ten regional systems levels from our household to the world… Which level is most important for resiliency? Arguably the city… the level of population is enough to support “the knowledge burden of advanced technology” required for a high-quality of life
  • Our world can be thought of as a nested system of systems…. Sources http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matryoshka_doll http://blog.teacollection.com/history-of-nesting-dolls http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_traditional_dolls “ Japanese wooden dolls were made to look like the Seven Lucky Gods from Japanese mythology.  The outer most doll was Fukurokuju the Japanese god of happiness and longevity.  He had an abnormally long forehead “
  • In today’s talk we will be thinking together about the future…. What is the future? We can imagine many possibilities… I show this for two reasons: - I believe computers will soon be helping policymakers and others explore future possibilities better - I want us to be thinking about resiliency of our systems in the future, and what are the weakest links in creating resilient cities and universities… what do we do if the computers go down, when we depend more and more on technology for a high quality of life? Source: http://www.kurzweilai.net/cartoon-what-is-the-meaning-of-life
  • Transcript

    • 1. IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward) Return to the Planet of the NBIC(S) 2.0 Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno IBM Centennial Icon of Progress Egypt-Japan University of Science & TechnologyDr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, spohrer@us.ibm.comInnovation Champion and Director IBM UPward OF THE(University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development) NBIC(S) 2.0Workshop on NBIC(S)2 – Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno-(Social)-2Washington DC, USA, Tue June 26, 2012 © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 2. Today’s Talk What’s NBIC(S) 2.0? – Return to the Planet of the NBIC(S) 2.0 – “Nib-Iks-Two-Oh” – Why NIBC(S)-2? Why add social? – A Few Slides from NBIC-1 (The lens of “work” – “Z-Theory”) – What has changed in 10 years? • Social Media & Business (Collaborate) • 3D Printing (Even More Real Now) • Google Glasses (WorldBoard) • Drones (Telerobotics) What’s next? – Energy 2.0: 30 stories building – robotically built in 10 days, recycled in 10 days – Manufacturing 2.0: Cars built as part of a local recycling service, self driving – Agriculture 2.0: Urban farming and local food – the pendulum swings back – Education 2.0: Universities=living-labs/smarter cities (“knowledge burden”); EdX & TEDx – Life 2.0: CAD for bacteria; Search for life & intelligence out there succeeds – Smart 2.0: SYNAPSE & Watson, SIRI, Wolfram Alpha, etc. What’s important? – Whole Service Systems (individuals, family, cities, etc.) – Measures: Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience – Policymaking: Balance WTA & IWL policies (global grand challenges, X-Prizes) – Education: T-shaped people2 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 3. NBIC(S)2 Social http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/1/NBIC_overview.pdf3 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 4. Why Social? Look What’s New… Smarter Planet Watson Jeopardy! Cloud Computing, Analytics Service Science Social Business CyberSecurity… IBM title Google & Apple Microsoft WordPress LinkedIn Twitter HP, Oracle, SAP, Facebook, Etc., etc.4 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 5. Accelerating Change 200450 Years: Information technology connecting islands ofinformation (created by people) into larger networks3.00E+17 Growth rates for:2.50E+172.00E+17 Nano: Transistors made per second1.50E+17 transistors1.00E+17 Bio: Gene sequenced per second, Cell divisions observed per second,5.00E+16 fMRI regions scanned per second0.00E+00 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999About 10 billion transistors made per second Info: Bytes storage made per secondin 2004, doubling each 18 monthsWorldwide Production of Transistors on all Cogno: Emails per second, IM per secondICs (Source: NSF) Google searchers per second Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Science by Mihail C. Roco (Editor), William Sims Bainbridge (Editor)5 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 6. Accelerating Change 2004200 year view: Services dominate Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size (about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations) A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services Nation % WW % % % 25 yr % 2004 2004 Labor A G S delta S United States China 21.0 50 15 35 191 (A) Agriculture: Value from harvesting nature India 17.0 60 17 23 28 (G) Goods: Value from making products U.S. 4.8 3 27 70 21 Indonesia 3.9 45 16 39 35 (S) Services: Value from enhancing the capabilities of things (customizing, Brazil 3.0 23 24 53 20 distributing, etc.) and interactions between things Russia 2.5 12 23 65 38 Japan 2.4 5 25 70 40 The largest labor force migration Nigeria 2.2 70 10 20 30 in human history is underway, driven by urbanization, Banglad. 2.2 63 11 26 30 global communications, Germany 1.4 3 33 64 44 low cost labor, business growth >50% (S) services, >33% (S) services and technology innovation.6 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 7. Accelerating Change 2004 Towards facilitated coevolution of capabilities… (an hypothesis) Human System Tool System Service provider helps The choice to the client by doing some Collaborate Augment change work practices of it for them (incentives) (tool) (in a custom way) requires answering Z 1 2 four key questions: Service provider helps - Should we? (Business Value) - Can we? (Technology) the client by doing all Delegate Automate of it for them (outsource) (self-service) - May we? (Governance) (in a standard way) - Will we? (Work Priorities) 3 4 Incent People Harness Nature (Social systems with intentional agents) (Technology systems with stochastic parts)Example: Call Centers Collaborate Augment Delegate Automate (1970) (1980) (2000) (2010) Experts: High skill people on phones Tools: Less skill with FAQ tools Market: Lower cost geography (India) Technology: Voice response system Bootstrapping: Douglas Engelbart, Coevolution, and the Origins of Personal Computing by Thierry Bardini “Increasing our collective capabilities to address complex, urgent problems by improving improvement” 7 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 8. Accelerating Change 2004Collaborate: Emergence of Collective IQ  FOXP2 and the Evolution of  “With enough eyeballs, all bugs are Language, by Alec MacAndrew shallow” http://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm  “With a large enough smart mob, all …Detective story from a family with inferences are shallow” slurred speech to genes that influence  Relationship oriented computing tools brain development and enable speech Amazon – Recommendation system (Speech pathology, linguistics, genetics, embryogenesis, neurophysiology, E-Bay – Reputation system anthropology, primate evolution, etc.) Google – Relevancy ranking The Symbolic Species: The Smart Mobs Co-Evolution of Language by Howard Rheingold and the Brain by Terrence W. Deacon Open Innovation The Cathedral & by Henry Chesbrough the Bazaar by Eric S. Raymond8 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 9. Accelerating Change 2004 WorldBoardCollaborate (continued) Connections by James Burke Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age by Duncan J. Watts Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software by Steven Johnson9 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 10. Accelerating Change 2004Augment: TeleroboticsDoctor: United States Patient: FranceFirst transatlantic telesurgery – September 2001Roundtrip 14,000 km, time lag 200 milliseconds Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Us by Rodney Brooks “The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote- presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor economies where no other work is available.” (146-147)10 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 11. Accelerating Change 2004 http://www.cio.com/offshoremap/ Delegate: Outsourcing 60 Minutes (1/11/04) : Out of IndiaMeasure freedom Measure money Development as Freedom The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization by Amartya Sen by Thomas L. Friedman 1998 Nobel Prize Winner Economics 11 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 12. Accelerating Change 2004Automate: 3D Printing (a.k.a. stereolithography) BUILDING BONES. A rats skull regenerates better with a new bone-promoting scaffold (left) than with a less-sophisticated Printing Organs scaffold (right). F.E. Weber/University Hospital Zurich “This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a Printing Teeth & Bone crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block, and then let the engine run for about 80 hours to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other Printing 3D Gadgets combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And Printing 3D Electronics except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear to have degraded at all.” By Lawrence S. Gould Rapid Manufacturing: The Technologies and Applications of Rapid Prototyping and Rapid Tooling by S. S. Dimov, Duc Truon Pham12 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 13. What’s Next – NBIC(S) 2.0? – Energy 2.0: • 30 stories building – robotically built in 10 days, recycled in 10 days – Manufacturing 2.0: • Cars built as part of a local recycling service, self driving – Agriculture 2.0: • Urban farming and local food – the pendulum swings back – Education 2.0: • Universities as living-labs for their smarter cities (“knowledge burden”); EdX & TEDx – Life 2.0: • CAD for bacteria; Search for life & intelligence out there succeeds – Smart 2.0 • SYNAPSE & Watson, SIRI, Wolfram Alpha, etc.13 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 14. Resiliency: Capability to rebuild (and recycle) rapidly China Broad Group: 30 Stories in 15 Days14 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 15. Manufacturing as a local recycling & assembly service Ryan Chin: Urban Mobility15 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 16. Self-driving cars Steve Mahan: Test “Driver”16 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 17. City challenge: buildings and transportation Ryan Chin: Smart Cities17 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 18. Cities: land-population-energy-carbon Carlo Ratti: Senseable Cities18 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 19. Universities key to regions Nation  Three Streams State/Province City/Metro – Transfer knowledge For-profits U-BEE Job Creator/Sustainer – Create knowledge Cultural & Conference University Hospital Medical College Hotels Research K-12 – Apply knowledge to co-create value Non-profits Worker (professional) Family (household)  Nested Holistic Systems – Flows – Development Third Stream is about U-BEEs = – Governance University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems19 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 20. Regional Competitiveness and U-BEEs:Where imagined possible worlds become observable real worldshttp://www.service-science.info/archives/1056Innovations NationUniversities/ “The future is already State/Province here (at universities),Regions City/RegionCalculus (Cambridge/UK) For-profits it is just not evenlyPhysics (Cambridge/UK) U-BEEComputer Science (Columbia/NY) distributed.”Microsoft (Harvard/WA) Job Creator/SustainerYahoo (Stanford/CA) Hospital Cultural & UniversityGoogle (Stanford/CA) Medical Conference CollegeFacebook (Harvard/CA) Research Hotels K-12 “The best way to Non-profits Worker (professional) Family (household) predict the future is to (inspire the next generation of students to) build it better.” U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, City Within City 20 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 21. Nations compete and cooperate: Universities important% WW GDP and % WW Top-500-Universities (2009 Data) 9 Japan 8 7 y = 0,7489x + 0,3534 R² = 0,719 China 6 Germany 5 France 4 United Kingdom Italy % G D o b P a g l 3 Russia Brazil Spain Canada 2 India Mexico South Korea Australia Turkey Netherlands 1 Sweden 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 % top 500 universities21 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 22. What’s Important – NBIC(S) 2.0 – Theory is important (object of study) • Whole Service Systems – individuals, family, cities, etc. • Measures – Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience – Policymaking (rules) as important at Technology (capabilities) • Balance WTA & IWL policies • global grand challenges, X-Prizes • Winner-Take-All and Improve-Weakest-Link – Quality-of-Life focus is important • QoLife = – QoService (Customer) + QoWork (Provider) + QoOpportunity (Parent) • Education – T-shaped people – Breadth and depth • Universities – Third stream: Apply knowledge to create value – Rankings “should” change more (for equity)22 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 23. Four measures  Innovativeness  Equity  Sustainability  Resiliency23 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 24. T-shaped professionalsdepth & breadth Many cultures Many disciplines Many systems (understanding & communications) BREADTH Deep in one discipline Deep in one system Deep in one culture DEPTH (analytic thinking & problem solving)2424 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 25. Accelerating Change 2004Service Science, an emerging multidiscipline toaccelerate the coevolution of business-technology-workinnovations Industry-Academic- Government Collaboration Needed November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer (spohrer@us.ibm.com) Director, Almaden Services Research Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928 http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr
    • 26. Accelerating Change 2004Today’s Talk  Part 1: Zooming in on accelerating change – what’s really changing? 12,000,000,000 year view – emergence of life and human culture 12,000 year view – rise in human population 200 year view – rise of the large managerial firm, and this thing called services – what’s that all about?  Part 2: Are services even the slightest bit interesting? Adam Smith’s view – services are parasites on the rest of the economy Colin Clark’s view – Smith, Marx, Stalin made the error of neglecting services Dramatic growth of service sector – the intangible economy Emergence of Service Science discipline  Part 3: So what? What’s the big deal? From loosely guided to designed evolution of capabilities… (maybe) Work-capability evolution (collaboration, augmentation, delegation, automation)26 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 27. Accelerating Change 2004Part 1: Zooming in on accelerating change  What’s really changing?  12,000,000,000 year view – emergence of life and human culture  12,000 year view – rise in human population  200 year view – rise of the large managerial firm, and this thing called services – what’s that all about?27 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 28. Accelerating Change 2004 12B years of capability coevolution & accelerating change Billion Years Ago Natural Capabilities Generations Ago Human Capabilities 12 Big Bang (EMST) 100,000 Speech 11.5 Milky Way (Atoms) 750 Agriculture 8 Sun (Energy) 500 Writing 4.5 Earth (Molecules) 400 Libraries 3.5 Bacteria (Cell) 40 Universities 2.5 Sponge (Body) 24 Printing 0.7 Clams (Nerves) 16 Accurate Clocks 0.5 Trilobites (Brains) 5 Telephone 0.2 Bees (Swarms) 4 Radio 0.065 Mass Extinctions 3 Television 0.002 Humans 2 Computer Tools & Clans 1 Internet/e-Mail Coevolution 0 GPS, DVD, WDM Global Brain: The Evolution of Mass Mind from the Big Bang to the 21st Century by Howard Bloom28 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 29. Accelerating Change 200412,000 years: Human population growth from 5M to 6B people200 years: Rise of the modern managerial firm Information Technologies, etc. Scientific Method, Industrialization Colonial Expansion & Economics, Rise of the modern managerial firm & Politics, Education, Healthcare & Effects of Agriculture, The Visible Hand: The Managerial Revolution in American Business by Alfred Dupont Chandler29 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 30. Accelerating Change 2004Part 2: Are services even slightly interesting?  Adam Smith’s view – parasites on the rest of the economy  Colin Clark’s view – growing rapidly (Clark-Fisher Hypothesis)  Dramatic growth of service sector – the intangible or “weightless” economy  Emergence of Service Science discipline30 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 31. Accelerating Change 2004200 year view: Services dominate Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size (about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations) A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services Nation % WW % % % 25 yr % 2004 2004 Labor A G S delta S United States China 21.0 50 15 35 191 (A) Agriculture: Value from harvesting nature India 17.0 60 17 23 28 (G) Goods: Value from making products U.S. 4.8 3 27 70 21 Indonesia 3.9 45 16 39 35 (S) Services: Value from enhancing the capabilities of things (customizing, Brazil 3.0 23 24 53 20 distributing, etc.) and interactions between things Russia 2.5 12 23 65 38 Japan 2.4 5 25 70 40 The largest labor force migration Nigeria 2.2 70 10 20 30 in human history is underway, driven by urbanization, Banglad. 2.2 63 11 26 30 global communications, Germany 1.4 3 33 64 44 low cost labor, business growth >50% (S) services, >33% (S) services and technology innovation.31 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 32. Accelerating Change 2004Services in an economy drive up human capability growthDeveloping nations that invest in government services, health and educationservices, financial and business services, transportation services, utility services,communication services, and wholesale and retail services (growth of their serviceeconomy) create large populations of service labor – removing “un-freedoms,” doingvaluable work for others. (see Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom) Example: medical, legal, and IT work in India Extractive Sector Business Consumer Services Financial & information Professional & business Infrastructure Trade Services Services Transportation & warehousing Wholesale & retail Utilities & communication Public Social/personal Administration Education & healthcare Services Manufacturing Leisure & hospitality Government Sector Source: Dorothy I. Riddle (1986) Service-Led Growth. Praeger, NY Development as Freedom 1998 Nobel Prize by Amartya Sen Winner Economics32 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 33. Accelerating Change 2004Business of production (Solow’s model) Production is measure of results or “goals achieved” Production per capita (Y) as a function of output per worker (L) and capital assets per worker (K) and investment per worker (I) Investment drives technology progress and improves the efficiency of labor; accumulates over time as capital assets Today: Six billion people (L) with the capital assets created by one hundred billion people throughout history (K) and innovation investments (I) to increase efficiency of L, K, and I Innovation impact will be realized in terms of… More workers (L): Healthy – healthcare services More capital assets (K): Wealthy – financial services, retail services, transportation services More investment (I): Wise – education services, information services, financial services Growth Theory: An Exposition by Robert M. Solow33 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 34. Accelerating Change 2004IT investment drives up service sector productivity growth Worldwide IT spend 36% Financial and Information Services 13% Government 9% Retail and Wholesale 8% Professional and Business Services (20% manufacturing) US CAGR in Labor Productivity 4.4% Financial and Information Services 3.8% Government 3.8% Retail and Wholesale 2.9% Professional and Business Services (1.4% manufacturing) Source: Gartner WW IT Spend Industry Report (December 2003)34 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 35. Accelerating Change 2004Economic Distinctions & Evolution of Value Growth Economic Commodity Packaged Commodity Consumer Business Offering Goods Goods Services Services++ Services++ Economy Agrarian Industrial Service Experience Transformation Economic Extract Make Deliver Stage Co-create value Function growth Nature of Fungible Tangible Intangible Memorable Effectual Offering Key Natural Standard Custom Personal Value growth Attribute relationship Method of Stored in Inventory of Delivered Reveal over Sustained over time Supply Bulk product On Demand duration Seller Trader Manufacturer Provider Stager Collaborator Buyer Market Customer Client Guest Collaborator Factors of Characteristics Features Benefits Sensations Capabilities Demand (Cultural Values) Based on (Pine & Gilmore, 1999), Table 9-1, pg 170. The Experience Economy by B. Joseph Pine II, James H. Gilmore35 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 36. Accelerating Change 2004What you may not know… IBM led in the creation ofComputer Science departments at universities Now IBM is working to Establish Service Science The biggest costs were in changing the organization. One way to think about these changes is to treat the Organizational costs as an investment in a new asset. Firms make investments over time in developing a new process, rebuilding their staff or designing a new organizational structure, and the benefits from these Investments are realized over a long period of time.” Eric Brynjolfsson, “Beyond the Productivity Paradox”36 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 37. Accelerating Change 2004Relationship of Service Science to Existing Academic Areas:The center balances three key factors: business value, IT process, organizational culture1. Service Engineering 1990-2004 1900-1960 14. Computer &2. Service Operations Process: Information Technology Information Sciences3. Service Management 15. Management of Innovation4. Service Marketing 16. Organization Theory5. Social Complexity 14 17. Operations Research6. Agent-based comput- 18. Systems Engineeringational economics 287. Computational 21 18 19. Management ScienceOrganization Theory 10 20. Game Theory 1 118. Human Capital 5 21. Industrial EngineeringManagement (HCM) 13 7 3 2 17 22. Marketing9. Experimental 6 4 23. ManagerialEconomics 8 12 15 Psychology10. AI & Games 16 27 9 25 22 24. Business11. Management of 24 Administration (MBA)Information Systems People: 23 19 Capital: 25. Economics12. Computer Supported 20 Business 26. LawCollab. Work (CSCW) Organizational 2613. Human Performance Culture Decisions 27. SociologyTech. & Measurement 1960-1990 Before 1900 28. Education 37 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 38. Accelerating Change 2004Part 3: So what? What’s the big deal?  From old paradigm business-technology-work coevolution to a new paradigm of facilitated coevolution of capabilities to address complex, urgent problems (maybe – if we can get collectively smart enough, fast enough; problems or challenges are coevolving with capabilities)  Work evolution Improved collaboration (communications & coordination) Improved augmentation (tools) Improved delegation (outsourcing) Improved automation (self service)38 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 39. Accelerating Change 2004 Towards facilitated coevolution of capabilities… (an hypothesis) Human System Tool System Service provider helps The choice to the client by doing some Collaborate Augment change work practices of it for them (incentives) (tool) (in a custom way) requires answering Z 1 2 four key questions: Service provider helps - Should we? (Business Value) - Can we? (Technology) the client by doing all Delegate Automate of it for them (outsource) (self-service) - May we? (Governance) (in a standard way) - Will we? (Work Priorities) 3 4 Incent People Harness Nature (Social systems with intentional agents) (Technology systems with stochastic parts)Example: Call Centers Collaborate Augment Delegate Automate (1970) (1980) (2000) (2010) Experts: High skill people on phones Tools: Less skill with FAQ tools Market: Lower cost geography (India) Technology: Voice response system Bootstrapping: Douglas Engelbart, Coevolution, and the Origins of Personal Computing by Thierry Bardini “Increasing our collective capabilities to address complex, urgent problems by improving improvement” 39 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 40. Accelerating Change 2004Collaborate: Emergence of Collective IQ  FOXP2 and the Evolution of  “With enough eyeballs, all bugs are Language, by Alec MacAndrew shallow” http://www.evolutionpages.com/FOXP2_language.htm  “With a large enough smart mob, all …Detective story from a family with inferences are shallow” slurred speech to genes that influence  Relationship oriented computing tools brain development and enable speech Amazon – Recommendation system (Speech pathology, linguistics, genetics, embryogenesis, neurophysiology, E-Bay – Reputation system anthropology, primate evolution, etc.) Google – Relevancy ranking The Symbolic Species: The Smart Mobs Co-Evolution of Language by Howard Rheingold and the Brain by Terrence W. Deacon Open Innovation The Cathedral & by Henry Chesbrough the Bazaar by Eric S. Raymond40 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 41. Accelerating Change 2004 WorldBoardCollaborate (continued) Connections by James Burke Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age by Duncan J. Watts Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software by Steven Johnson41 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 42. Accelerating Change 2004Augment: TeleroboticsDoctor: United States Patient: FranceFirst transatlantic telesurgery – September 2001Roundtrip 14,000 km, time lag 200 milliseconds Flesh and Machines: How Robots Will Change Us by Rodney Brooks “The brains of people in poorer countries will be hired to control the physical-labor robots, the remote- presence robots, in richer countries. The good thing about this is that the persons in that poorer country will not be doing the dirty, tiring work themselves. It will be relatively high-paying and desirable to work for many places where the economy is poor. Furthermore, it will provide work in those places with poor economies where no other work is available.” (146-147)42 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 43. Accelerating Change 2004 http://www.cio.com/offshoremap/ Delegate: Outsourcing 60 Minutes (1/11/04) : Out of IndiaMeasure freedom Measure money Development as Freedom The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization by Amartya Sen by Thomas L. Friedman 1998 Nobel Prize Winner Economics 43 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 44. Accelerating Change 2004Automate: 3D Printing (a.k.a. stereolithography) BUILDING BONES. A rats skull regenerates better with a new bone-promoting scaffold (left) than with a less-sophisticated Printing Organs scaffold (right). F.E. Weber/University Hospital Zurich “This Parker Hannifin emissions filter, a Printing Teeth & Bone crankcase vapor coalescer, is made out of PPSF (polyphenylsulfone), a rapid prototyping material from Stratasys. Parker Hannifin bolted this filter onto a 6.0-liter V8 diesel engine block, and then let the engine run for about 80 hours to test filter-medium efficiency. The prototype filter did just fine. It collected blow-by gases containing 160°F oil, fuel, soot, and other Printing 3D Gadgets combustion by-products. It didn’t leak. And Printing 3D Electronics except for some staining, the filter didn’t appear to have degraded at all.” By Lawrence S. Gould Rapid Manufacturing: The Technologies and Applications of Rapid Prototyping and Rapid Tooling by S. S. Dimov, Duc Truon Pham44 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 45. Accelerating Change 2004In the past, work has changed relatively slowly…45 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 46. Accelerating Change 2004In the service economy, work changes rapidly… Science-technology and business innovations constantly reconfigure work. Service science seeks to understand and design improved reconfigurations. Science Technology Business New Products & Services drive Business Tech underlies new Products & Services Science produces Data, drives Info Tech Group (outside) Social Science, Financial Economics, Services, Legal, Org. Behavior Insurance, Government Individual Cognitive Education, (inside/outside) Science Communication Brain (inside) Neurophysiology Healthcare, Public Cell (inside) Proteomics Healthcare, Industrial Gene (inside) Genomics Healthcare, Distribution46 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 47. Accelerating Change 2004 Perhaps technology can help search for improvements in the reconfigurations space… Blue Gene, as its name suggests, is aimed at the drug-development market. Scientists hope eventually to model how proteins fold – a process that is important in designing drugs that can block cancer cells and other diseases. Computational organization theory and agent-based computational economics are potential future directions.36.01 teraflops (Linpack benchmark)47 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 48. Accelerating Change 2004Emergence of Service ScienceUnderstand service phenomena to better optimize across three levels impacted by rise of service economy  Economic goals at three levels 1. Nations: Maximize GDP / Capita per year Note nations have many other goals, including environment, health, education, defense, quality of life for citizens, high-skill, high-pay jobs, etc. 2. Businesses: Maximize Revenue / Employee and Profits / Employee per year Note increasingly businesses are adding additional values, such as sustainable environment, work-life balance, etc. 3. Individuals: Maximize Income / Time Note in a survey of US information technology workers, base-pay rated fourth in overall goals, behind challenge, stability, and flexibility of work experience.  Economic goals are achieved by four plans, productivity level is the key attribute 1. Follow demand: Migrate labor to high productivity industries/offerings/jobs where demand exceeds supply 2. Create demand/value innovation: Invent new high productivity industries/offerings/jobs 3. Repair supply: Invest to transform low productivity industries/offerings/jobs(skills); including leap-frog productivity strategy 4. Protect supply: Invest to protect low productivity industries/offerings/jobs(skills) in an effort to buy time, and if lucky catch next wave  The study of value innovation & labor productivity are important to service science Historically, what has determined the rise in demand for particular types of services? What types of innovation have led to a rise in the demand for particular types of services? What types of innovation have led to a rise in labor productivity in particular industries? Already empirical evidence indicates that effective IT-enabled productivity gains requires aligning technology, business/value, and organizational culture innovations. People can resist change or help accelerate change depending on the alignment of all three factors. As economic goals are achieved, wealth increases, and increasingly other goals take priority, hence the value of economic transactions will not simply be measured in financial terms, side-effects matter. Economic transactions will need to maximize value add beyond financial metrics.48 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 49. Accelerating Change 2004 A Preliminary Definition of Service Science Service Science is the study of business methods to create and capture value, technology tools to re-engineer processes, and organizational culture practices to incent and People align people, and their collective impact on effectiveness and Human & Organizational efficiency in the performance of services work. Performance (PIP = 1.1 to 10) Recent studies of IT Productivity Paradox indicate that technology tools, business methods, and organizational culture must align to achieve return on investment for IT. The services industry must be viewed as a collection of Process interacting systems, where the history of the systems Business Optimization, (legacy) matters as much as new events in understanding Professional Services Automation what should, can, may, and will happen next. (PIP = 1.1 to 4) Effectiveness means working on the right things that matter to the business and efficiency means doing the work according to best practices. Productivity depends on both effective and efficient performance. Services are typically simultaneously produced (by the provider) Capital and consumed (by the client). The provider and the client Value Based Management can each be individuals, organizations, or automated (PIP = 1.1 to 2) systems. PIP: Potential for Improvement of Performance 49 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 50. Accelerating Change 2004 http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution History of Technology Technology Projections History of Work Coevolution Work Projections History of Business Business Projections Service Science Industry Technology->process change Academic (also regulations->process change) Government Business->capital ROI change Collaboration Work-> people and org. change (also education->people change)50 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 51. Accelerating Change 2004EXTRA SLIDES November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer (spohrer@us.ibm.com) Director, Almaden Services Research Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928 http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr
    • 52. Accelerating Change 2004This talk…  Is about accelerating innovation… By improving technology and organizations and work Service science to accelerate the coevolution of business- technology-work innovations  Is not about assessing risks…  Is not about betting on the future... Things That Make Us Smart: Defending Human Attributes in the Age of the Machine by Donald A. Norman Examples: Watch, Writing; Metric: Symbols & Models Survival of the Smartest: Managing Information for Rapid Action and World-Class Performance by Haim Mendelson, Johannes Ziegler Metric: Awareness, Decisions, Communication, Focus, Infrastr.52 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 53. Accelerating Change 2004Risks – not today’s talk  Privacy violations (social issues)  Unequal access (social issues)  Censorship (social issues)  Mischief and crime (social issues)  Environmental damage (systemic issues)  Glitches and out of control (systemic issues)  Overload (cognitive, social, and systemic issues)  Also alienation, narrowing, deceit, degradation, intrusion, inequality, etc. (and many more issues associated with new technologies of all sorts throughout the history of humans which is also (incidentally) the history of technology & organizations) The Future Does Not Compute: Transcending the Machines in Our Midst See NetFuture (http://www.netfuture.org/) by Steve Talbott (stevet@oreilly.com) (also see Chapter 7of Andy Clark “Natural-Born Cyborgs” titled “Bad Borgs?”))53 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 54. Accelerating Change 2004Betting on the future – not today’s talk  But if you want to bet, check out Longbets.org, one of a growing number of websites dedicated to betting on the future  Many bets such as Featured Bet on 20040208: Douglas C. Hewes predicts: "By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification." read the argument » Stuart Brand, author of “The Clock of the Long Now” Founder, Longbet.org54 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 55. Accelerating Change 2004What makes us smarter? Human system & Tool system  Capability evolution = things that make us smart (our organizations & tools) Growth of capabilities to create and achieve goals, intentionally and parsimoniously Growth of win-win games over win-lose; higher payoffs; lower risks; lower maintenance (entropy) Growth of capabilities to sense, communicate, decide, act; Growth of capabilities to bud and scale  Slowly: In the past 12 billion years (2 million years), evolution has been driving what has been making things (humans) smarter Atoms, Molecules, Cell, Life, Body, Nerves, Brains, Swarms, Humanity…  Rapidly: In the past 200 years, organizations have been driving what has been making us smarter – business-technology-work coevolution Citizen - 230 years ago it was government – rise of modern democracy (intangible - sustainable freedom) Worker - 150 years ago it was business – rise of modern managerial firm (intangible - efficient value) Consumer – 80 years ago buy more than make; Shareholder – 20 years ago; upside for growth of businesses  Very Rapidly: In the past 50 years, information technology has been driving what has been making us smarter – service economy dominates Only in the last fifty years with the discovery of DNA (bio), creation of digital computing technology (info), ability to manipulate matter at the atomic scale (nano), and rapid advancement of cognitive science to better understand human thought processes (cogno) has information processing in natural, social, and technological substrates been perceived as “converging” – discoveries in one area leading to advances/applications in the others Shadows in the Sun, by Wade Davis “Ethnosphere: Its really the sum total of all the thoughts, beliefs, myths, and institutions brought into being by the human imagination. It is humanitys greatest legacy, embodying everything we have produced as a curious and amazingly adaptive species.”55 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 56. Accelerating Change 2004Business Implications: Three examples  Healthy: More healthy people to boost effective labor Our Bodies & Our Environment Someday Personalized Pharmaceuticals (nano for sensors, delivery, design)  Wealthy: More capital assets per worker to boost effective labor Our Material Goods (Sustainable, Cheaper, Stronger) Someday On Demand Materials (nano for manufacturing materials)  Wise: Better investment decisions to boost efficiency of labor Our Thinking and Perception (Access to Information) Someday Learning Conversations (nano for compute performance, interface)56 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 57. Accelerating Change 2004 Healthy Rational drug development requires managing enormous complexity. Pharmaceutical companies are beginning to differentiate themselves on the power of their information technology platforms. IT Platform intellectual property is likely to be more valuable than content (gene sequences, metabolic pathways, protein structures, etc.) Personalized Dru e.g., Modafinil enhances Pharmaceuticals gs tr ea tp wakefulness and vigilance he no typ es 1.5 million proteins alternative splicing turns interacting in complex 40,000 genes into 500,000 networks create hundreds of messages millions of metabolic pathways DNA RNA Protein Pathways Phenotype40,000 genes (approx.100 million post translational hundreds of millions ofbases) represent less than 3% of modification turns pathways influenced by thethe genome (approx. 3 billion 500,000 messages environment and stochasticbases). The function of the into 1.5 million processes create 6 billionremaining 97% remains elusive. proteins different individuals Historically, 220 targets have generated $3trillion of value. Industrialized genome sequencing has created a target rich, lead poor environment that will slowly reverse over the next several years as in-silico biology drives the discovery of new lead compounds. DNA to Phenotype = 300 terabytes per person x 6 billion persons = 1800 billion terabytes of data 57 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 58. Accelerating Change 2004WealthyMaterial Goods  Environmentally friendly, sustainable production  Cheaper, Stronger, Lighter, Durable, Active, etc.  Smart, polymorphic, chromatically active materials  Clothing and Textiles – stain resistant  Computing technologies – roll-to-roll manufacturing  Cars and Vehicles  Roads  Houses and Buildings  Furniture and Appliances  Foods58 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 59. Accelerating Change 2004Wise Access to information & better investment decisions Semantic Web and Natural Language Capabilities APPLICATIONS Trillions of Calculations per Second Learning Conversations ---------------------- 100,000 Human Like Behavior “HAL” 10,000 Predictive Modeling 1,000 Protein Folding 100 Nuclear Simulation 10 Chess Playing 1 1997 2000 2005 2010 2015 Peter Bernstein’s against the gods…59 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 60. Accelerating Change 200450 Years: Information technology connecting islands ofinformation (created by people) into larger networks3.00E+17 Growth rates for:2.50E+172.00E+17 Nano: Transistors made per second1.50E+17 transistors1.00E+17 Bio: Gene sequenced per second, Cell divisions observed per second,5.00E+16 fMRI regions scanned per second0.00E+00 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999About 10 billion transistors made per second Info: Bytes storage made per secondin 2004, doubling each 18 monthsWorldwide Production of Transistors on all Cogno: Emails per second, IM per secondICs (Source: NSF) Google searchers per second Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Science by Mihail C. Roco (Editor), William Sims Bainbridge (Editor)60 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 61. Accelerating Change 2004 Model of capabilities: Outside-Inside Framework Nature, Organizations, Technology: But where is the metric? Relative Position Capability Areas External (outside the body; environmental) Materials - Cost, Affordances, Dynamics Agents – Organizations, Bots, Animals Places – Real, Virtual, Mixed Mediators - Tools External (outside the body; personal) Mediators – Wearables, Mobile Tools Internal (inside the body; temporary) Ingestibles – Medicines, Foods Internal (inside the body; permanent) Organs – Implants, Sensor & Effectors Skills – Learning, New Uses of Old Genes – New Species, Devel. ProcessOutside-Inside Framework can be used to analyze the past, and speculate about futures. 61 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 62. Accelerating Change 2004Outside-Inside Framework Applied: Past & FutureHow much have cognitive capabilities been increasing?  - 100,000 Generations: Speech New Species (Kind of Agent) New Use of Old Sense (sounds -> symbols: language)  - 500 : Writing New Mediator: Store symbols for later use (and New Skills = Scribes)  - 400 : Libraries, 40 Universities, 24 Printing New Mediator, Places: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations)  - 16 : Accurate Clocks for Navigation & More New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organization)  - 5 : Telephone, 4 - Radio, 3 - TV, 2 - Computers, 1 - Internet New Mediator: Communicate/Distribute (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses) New Use Old Sense: Stories (e.g., Why Honeymooners = Flintstones)  -0.5 :GPS/Sensors for Navigation & More New Mediator: Measure (and Agents = Organizations/Businesses)  +0.5 : On-Demand e-Business (?business on demand?) New Agent (Businesses become more automated, adaptive, resilient, responsive)  +1 : NBIC (?nano-bio-info-cogno convergence?) New Material (Nanotechnology – first impact on materials, electronics, and life sciences) New Sense (Bionics - neural & biochemical interfaces cure deafness, blindness, organ failure) New Mediator (Information WorldBoard - planetary augmented reality system) New Agents (Cognitive robots or Bots - natural language interface to all human knowledge)  +5 : Utility Fog (?materials on demand?) New Material (Utility Fog – billions of particles assemble on-demand to create macro-scale objects) Nonzero : The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright62 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 63. Accelerating Change 2004The evolution of business towards a services economy(jobs arise and decline; a rolling shift in needed jobs & skills) U.S. Employment Percentages by Sector 100 90 80 70 Services (Info) 60 Services (Other) 50 40 Industry (Goods) 30 Agriculture 20 10 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Estimations based on Porat, M. (1977) Info Economy: Definitions and Measurement The Pursuit of Organizational Intelligence, by James G. March Exploitation versus exploration; services adapt goods to demand63 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 64. Accelerating Change 2004The evolution of business towards “On Demand e-Business” Technology and business innovations are coevolving. Rapid business productivity improvements are driven by technology innovations. Rapid technology improvements are driven by business investments.Moore’s “law” is as much a law of business investment as of technological possibilities. (see http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution) – two systems ratchet each other up. Characteristics of an on-demand e-business. Adaptive Enterprise: Creating and Leading Sense-And-Respond Organizations by Stephan H. Haeckel, Adrian J. Slywotzky 64 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 65. Accelerating Change 2004On demand e-business is enabled by an on demand operating environment.The on demand operating environment mirrors changing work practices Autonomic Virtualized Integration Open Standards65 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 66. Accelerating Change 2004 Evolving Complexity and Interconnections Social Technology Grid Computing Edge Computing IP-based Network Storage Telematics eGovernment Distr and SAN-wide File System P-M IP WAN Wireless Physician Government SAN Mgmt Life Sciences Operational Risk (FSS) Metro Rich Media Industry Groups ASP Hosted Platform Wireless LAN PLM eBiz Mgmt P-M-P High Performance Computing eSourcing Storage Virtualization Business Data Center Procurement Services Multichannel Wireless Utility CPG/CRM Mgmt Managed Storage Services M-M Linux Clusters P-P Unified Communications Cluster Division Video Area Networks Policy-based Automation Mobile Notes M-P-M Autonomic Storage Rack eLiza High Volume Linux Interconnects Department DB2 Everywhere Media Appliance High end Intel Box Server Appliance Pervasive/Mobile Computing Server Blade Autonomic Client Workgroup Devi ce Software Board Wireless Client Knowledge Mgmt M-P Broadband Game Photonics Advanced Personal Chip Person Identity Manager Digital Video eLearning Wireless 3G66 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 67. Accelerating Change 2004The New Environment and Human Activity: Where does our time go?From the search for food to the search for information Humans as Informavore (Miller, 1983) Source: Pirolli (2002) Energy Information Max [ Energy Time ] Max [ Useful info Time ]67 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 68. Accelerating Change 2004Cognitive Technologies: Where is the knowledge?  Localized in a brain -- yours! Remind: Capture history and augment memory Remediate: Practice with simulation games  Localized in a brain -- but someone else’s brain, soon to be yours too! Receive: Training, for use in known context (exploitation) Reconstruct: Education, for use in unknown context (exploration)  In no one’s brain (yet) -- but someday localized in your brain and/or others. Research: Answer question the first time Reflect: Ask question the first time  Distributed in the collective closure of brains, bodies, and technologies, “no one’s brain”68 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 69. Accelerating Change 2004Cognitive capabilities: In pursuit of a metric  Knowledge in our minds is soft capability  Knowledge in our genes, body, brains is hard capability  Knowledge in our organizations is relationship capability  However, in human and social systems attitudes, incentives, and games are an element of the cognitive capabilities of the system  Given a goal: land and safely return humans on Mars, one can estimate how many resources would be required to achieve this goal given the cognitive capabilities of the system.  How does one compare the complexity of achieving different goals?  How does one compare sensing, communications, decision making, and execution performance? Natural-Born Cyborgs: Minds, Technologies, and the Future of Human Intelligence by Andy Clark “…human cognitive evolution seems to involve the distinct way human brains repeatedly create and exploit various species of cognitive technology.” (pg. 78)69 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 70. Accelerating Change 2004 Meta Trends: Exponential Growth s Moores Law - Miniaturization - Continues ²Processing, Storage, ... ²Price/Performance 2X over 12-18 months s Metcalfs Law - Interconnection - Continues ²Value of a network increases as the square of the number connections s Gilders Law - Quantization - Continues ²Bandwidth increases 3X every 36 months s Negrapontes "Law - Digitization - Emerges ²Superiority of "bits over atoms" ²Profound impact felt in "Knowledge Economy" where ideas are ultimate raw material70 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 71. Accelerating Change 2004 Key Megatrends Driving Venture Investment Key Megashifts Switching is shifting from circuits to packets. Data, then voice; Backbone, then access Transmission is shifting from electronic to photonic. First long haul, then metro, then local access Functions are moving from the enterprise to the Net. IP universal protocol/ platform of choice is the Net Offerings are moving from products to services. "Utilitization" of processing, applications, storage, ... knowledge Bioscience is moving from in vitro to in silico First Genomics, then Proteomics, ... nanotechnologies71 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 72. Accelerating Change 2004 The science: nano-bio-cogno-socio-techno convergence: It’s all about information – encoding, processing, replicating – in different systems (ultimately all grounded in matter patterns) System Encoding Processing Replicating Nano Matter Atoms & Universe to Galactic, Solar, (Nature) Molecules Atoms Planet Systems Bio Life DNA Cells to Evolution (Nature) Ecosystems Cogno Thought Brains Neural Nets Evolution - (Nature/Human) CultureCoevolution Socio Culture People Organizations Evolution - (Human) Culture Techno Technology Artifacts & Bits Computers Design- (Human) Factories Rapidly increasing rates of advancement in each system area is creating cross pollination Examples: FOXP2, Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) – Variability, Interaction, Selection 72 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 73. Accelerating Change 2004Biocomplexity: Much prettier picture than my table! Rita Colwell, Former Director National Science Foundation (NSF)73 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 74. Accelerating Change 2004 IBM’s business is helping customers transform their businesses. Services is now 50% of IBM, with rapid growth from strategic outsourcing, help desk, business consulting.•Alternate providers • IBM’s Industry Solutions •IBM’s Customers •IBM’s Services •Services •Sales (IGS) (S&D)•Alternate vendors •IBM’s Partners •IBM’s Platform •Middleware/Software •PartnerWorld (SWG) (Developer Relations) •(DB2, WS, Rational, Tivoli, Lotus) •Boxes/Hardware (Servers, Storage, Personal) •Finance (IGF) •Chips/Technology •IBM Research (IMD, TG) IBM 101 – The New (Post 1995) IBM Ecosystem Revenue: $80+ Billion/Year Employees: 320,000+, about 50% inside-US, 50% outside-US IBM Global Services, approx. 170,000 people in 120 countries 74 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 75. IBM Global Services Provides e-business Services TELL ME HELP ME DO IT MANAGE IT WHAT TO DO FOR ME Accelerating Change 2004 Strategic Business Innovation Services Outsourcing e-business Strategy Consulting Services Industry Solutions Outsourcing Web Application & Integration Services Application Management Integrated Technology Services e-business e-business Infrastructure Hosting Services Hardware Integration Alliances Colocation to New Technologies: Linux, SAN, Wireless Fully Managed Services Technical Support Services e-sourcing Learning Services November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer (spohrer@us.ibm.com) Learning Services Director, Almaden Services Research Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928 http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr
    • 76. Accelerating Change 2004 ODIS 101: On-Demand Innovation Services (ODIS) sets the stage for the next generation researcher – one that is closely tuned with real-world client issues to drive and validate innovations, technological-organizational-business perspectives. Requires new academic collaborations beyond technological. 1970’s-80’s 80’s-90’s 90’s-00’sResearch Focus Centrally Determined Collaborative Agenda Agenda Linked to Corporate Issues Determined with Brands Client Issues Create business advantage for clients Some Joint SomeResearchers In the Lab Development with Researchers in Clients theResearch in the Marketplace Centrally funded Joint programs marketplace On Demand Innovation IBM Offering Hardware Software Services 76 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 77. Accelerating Change 2004IBM Research Worldwide77 http://www.almaden.ibm.com/coevolution © 2004 IBM Corporation
    • 78. Accelerating Change 2004Thanks for your attention. Suggestions and ideas are welcome. E-mail spohrer@almaden.ibm.com or Jim Spohrer/Almaden/IBM. November 6, 2004 | Contact Jim Spohrer (spohrer@us.ibm.com) Director, Almaden Services Research Open Office Hour: Wed 4-5pm PST, 408-927-1928 http://almaden.ibm.com/coevolution http://www.almaden.ibm.com/asr
    • 79. Outline  The Global Opportunity (IBM Perspective) – 1000’s of Smarter Cities Projects – Example: Rio De Janeiro – Analytics, Cloud, Growth Markets, Universities – Individuals & Institutions Learning Together – T-Shaped People & Regional Smart Camp Entrepreneurs  Smarter Planet = Smarter Human-Serving Systems – Smarter Planet • Instrumented-Interconnected-Intelligent • Internet-of-Things, Cloud Computing, Analytics – Quality-of-Life (QoL) • Less waste in flows (energy, materials, etc.) • More development of capabilities • Better governance and decision-making  Service Science, Service Systems & Measurement – Service = applying knowledge to benefit others (value-cocreation) – Service science studies human-serving systems (service systems) – Service systems = configure individuals, infrastructure, institutions, information – QoL matters, university & urban innovations matter to business & society – Business Measures = Productivity, Quality, Compliance, Innovation – Societal Measures = Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience79 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 80. 80 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 81. 81 IB M G M U E xte rnal R e lations 201 2
    • 82. An al yt i c s i s e n ab l i n g c l i e n t s wi t h t r u s t e dan d r e l e van t i n f o r mat i o n i n REAL TI ME • For each industry the journey consists of a series of steps along a path of competencies to reach a smarter outcome for organizations • The power to pull together many sources of data in real time to source actionable insights and optimize clients’ business • Revenue IBM generated from Analytics solutions grew 16% from 2010 Through to 2015, more than 85% of Fortune 500 organizations will fail to exploit ‘big data’ for competitive advantage --Gartner Predictions 201282 IB M G M U E xte rnal R e lations 201 2
    • 83. D e ve l o p i n g c ap ab i l i t i e s t h at i mp r o ve vi s i b i l i t y, c o n t r o l an d au t o mat i o n o f c l o u d c o mp u t i n g s e r vi c e s IB MS m artC loud Business Process as a Service Software as a Service Platform as a Service Infrastructure as a Service IB MS m artC loud IB MS m artC loud IB MS m artC loud F o u n d ati o n S e rvi c e s S o lu ti o n s Private & Hybrid Clouds Managed Cloud Services Cloud Business Solutions Cloud Enablement technologies Infra & platform as a Service Software & Business Process as a Service Commitment to open standards & broad ecosystems83 IB M G M U E xte rnal R e lations 201 2
    • 84. 84 IB M G M U E xte rnal R e lations 201 2
    • 85. C e n tral G re ate r Au s trali a E as te rn Ch ina In d ia L ati n M i d d le E as tN e w Z e alan d AS E AN E u ro p e G ro u p S o u th As i a K o re a Am e ri c a Afri c a Brisbane Seoul Buenos Aires Sydney Bandar Seri Begawan Sofia Chandigarh Beijing Daejeon Daegu Cordoba Auckland Jakarta Zagreb Luanda Hong Kong Dehradun Kwangju Rosario Perth Surabaya Prague Qatar Taipei Delhi Pusan Rio de Janeiro Adelaide Medan Brno Alexandria Hefei Gurgaon Salvador Hobart Makassar Ostrava Cairo Xiamen Noida Fortalez Ballarat Manila Tallinn Accra Chongqing Jaipur Belo Horizonte Melbourne Cebu Budapest Nairobi Shanghai Lucknow Uberlandia Wellington Chiangmai Almaty Casablanca Beijing Guwahati Recife Christchurch Bangkok Riga Port Louis Tianjin Ahmedabad Curitiba Lower Hutt Pattaya Vilnius Lagos Fuzhou Indore Porto Alegre DaNang Warsaw Karachi Guangzhou Mumbai Campinas Ho Chi Minh City Wroclaw Islamabad Shenzhen Kolkata Joinville Krakow Lahore Nanjing Pune Anto fogasta Gdansk Riyadh Harbin Bhubaneshwar Medellin Katowice Dakar Shijiazhuang Hyderabad Cali Poznan Johannesburg Wuhan Vizag Guayaquil Bucharest Pretoria Zhengzou Bangalore Guadalajara Timisoara Durban Changsha Chennai Monterrey Ufa Cape Town Changchun Coimbatore Queretaro Kazan Port Elizabeth Nanning Kochi Lima Rostov-on-Don Bloemfontein Suzhou Nasik Samara Dar es Salaam Nanchang Colombo Perm Tunis Shenyang Dakkar Novosibirrsk Abu Dhabi Dalian Krasnoyarsk Dubai E s tab li s h e d Moscow Taiyuah Ouangadougou Qingdao St Petersburg N’Djamena p re s e n c e i n Ekaterinburg Jinan Kinshasa Xi’an Belgrade Libreville m an y Bratislava Chengdu Accra Urumchi Banska Bystrica Lilongwe G ro wth Kosice Kunming Antananarivo Hangzhou Ljubljana Niamey M ark e t Ankara Ningbo Seychelles Istanbul Freetown c o u n tri e s ... Izmire Kampala Dnepropetrovsk Lusaka Kiev Tashkent 85 IB M G M U E xte rnal R e lations 201 2 85
    • 86. Evo l vi n g r e g i o n al t al e n t & s k i l l s IBM is making long term investments to develop talent for the growth marketsGovernment Global Placements & Collaboration withPartnerships Mentoring Universities Transferring knowledge and IBM works with 5,000 universitiesBy helping governments to and 10,000 faculties around theestablish new national expertise to the growth markets is critical. One of the ways we do this globe. We have joint initiativesresearch facilities, we are and investments with universitieshelping to create new is to move experts into the market to in Vietnam, Malaysia, India,industries, helping to develop coach and train local teams. Russia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Egypt,long terms skills curriculums China and Africa to encouragelike SSME. the training of skills required. 86 IB M G M U E xte rnal R e lations 201 2
    • 87. Our Past, Present, Future:Refining Individuals & Institutions Learning Together TECHNOLOGY IMMERSION Any Device Learning Primary School In div idu Secondary al s PERSONAL LEARNING PATHS School Le ar Workforce Student-Centered Processes Higher nin Skills g Education Co nt Continuing inu KNOWLEDGE SKILLS Education um The Learning Communities Educational Intelligent Continuum • Aligned Data u m GLOBAL INTEGRATION • Outcomes Insight t inu n Services Specialization Instrumented Co Economic in g Sustainability • Student-centric rn • Integrated Assessment L ea ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT Interconnected io ns • Shared Services t ut ti ns Systemic View of Education • Interoperable Processes I http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/education-for-a-smarter-planet.html 87 87 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 88.  Identifies entrepreneurs developing businesses aligning with our Smarter Planet vision.  SmartCamp finalists raised more than $50m and received significant press inExclusive Networking and Wall Street Journal, Forbes and BloombergMentoring event - Healthcare SmartCamp kickstart - Miami - May 15, 2012 Apply by April 27th SmarterCities SmartCamp kickstart - New York - May 24, 2012 Apply by May 3rd North America Regional SmartCamp - Boston - June 20 & 21, 2012 Apply by May 25th apply now at www.ibm.com/isv/startup/smartcamp 88 North America SmartCamp lead: Eric Apse, eapse@us.ibm.com University Programs lead: Dawn Tew, dawn2@us.ibm.com88 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 89. What is Smarter Planet?3 I’s = Smarter Systems (less waste, better decisions) INSTRUMENTED INTERCONNECTED INTELLIGENT We now have the ability People, systems and We can respond to changes to measure, sense and objects can communicate quickly and accurately, see the exact condition and interact with each and get better results of practically everything. other in entirely new by predicting and optimizing PRODUCTS ways. IT NETWORKS COMMUNICATIONS for future events.WORKFORCE SUPPLY CHAIN TRANSPORTATION BUILDINGS89 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 90. What improves Quality-of-Life?Smarter Human-Serving Systems = Service System Innovations * = US Labor % in 2009. A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*) 20/10/10 1. Transportation & supply chain 2/7/4 2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment2/1/1 7/6/1 3. Food & products manufacturing 1/1/0 4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech 5/17/27 5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access) B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*) 1/0/2 6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*) 24/24/1 7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*) 2/20/24 7/10/3 (wealthy) (21%*) 8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting 5/2/2 9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*) 10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*) 3/3/1 C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*) 0/0/0 11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax) 1/2/2 12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax) 0/19/0 13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax) Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities “61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”90 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 91. Priorities: Succeeding through Service Innovation - A Framework for Progress (http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ssme/) Source: Workshop and Global Survey of Service Research Leaders (IfM & IBM 2008) IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward) 1. Emerging demand 2. Define the domain 3. Vision and gaps 4. Bridge the gaps 5. Call for actions Service Service Service Stakeholder The white paper offers a starting point to - Innovation Systems Science Priorities Growth in service Customer-provider To discover the Education GDP and jobs interactions that underlying enable value principles of Skills Develop programmes Service quality cocreation complex service & Mindset & qualifications & productivity systems Dynamic Research Environmental configurations of Systematically Encourage an Knowledge friendly & resources: people, create, scale and interdisciplinary & Tools approach sustainable technologies, improve systems organisations and Urbanisation & information Foundations laid Business aging population by existing Employment Increasing scale, disciplines Develop and improve & Collaboration Globalisation & complexity and service innovation technology drivers connectedness of Progress in Government roadmaps, leading to a service systems academic studies doubling of investment Opportunities for and practical tools Policies in service education businesses, B2B, B2C, C2C, & Investment and research by 2015 governments and B2G, G2C, G2G Gaps in knowledge individuals service networks and skills Glossary of definitions, history and outlook of service research, global trends, and ongoing debate © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 92. US National Academy of Engineering Grand Challenges A. Systems that focus on flow of things humans need 1. Transportation & Supply Chain Restore and enhance urban infrastructure 2. Water & Waste/Climate & Green tech Provide access to clear water 3. Food & Products Manager nitrogen cycle 4. Energy & Electricity Make solar energy economical Provide energy from fusion Develop carbon sequestration methods 5. Information & Communication Technology Enhance virtual reality Secure cyberspace Reverse engineer the brain B. Systems that focus on human activity & development 6. Buildings & Construction (smart spaces) Restore and enhance urban infrastructure 7. Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment (tourism) Enhance virtual reality 8. Banking & Finance/Business & Consulting 9. Healthcare & Family Life Advance health informatics Engineer better medicines Reverse engineer the brain 10. Education & Work Life/Jobs & Entrepreneurship Advance personalized learning Engineer the tools of scientific discovery C. Systems that focus on human governance 11. City & Security Restore and improve urban infrastructure Secure cyberspace Prevent nuclear terror 12. State/Region & Development 13. Nation & Rights92 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 93. California Human Development Report 2011:From meaning-of-life to quality-of-life…. http://www.measureofamerica.org/docs/APortraitOfCA.pdf93 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 94. Imagining quality-of-life innovations…94 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 95. A Framework for Global Civil Society  Daniel Patrick Moynihan said nearly 50 years ago: "If you want to build a world class city, build a great university and wait 200 years." His insight is true today – except yesterdays 200 years has become twenty. More than ever, universities will generate and sustain the world’s idea capitals and, as vital creators, incubators, connectors, and channels of thought and understanding, they will provide a framework for global civil society. – John Sexton, President NYU95 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 96. Visit IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA Upcoming Conferences – July 2012 • ISSS San Jose • HSSE San Francisco More Information – Blog • www.service-science.info – Twitter • @JimSpohrer – Presentations • www.slideshare.net/spohrer – Email • spohrer@us.ibm.com 96 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 97. Thank-You! Questions? “Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM “If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org “Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU “Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli “The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson “The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay “Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer “Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge “History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells “The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov “Think global, act local.” – GeddesDr. James (“Jim”) C. SpohrerInnovation Champion &Director, IBM University Programs & open worldwide entrepreneurship research (IBM UPower) WWspohrer@us.ibm.com 97 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 98. Value-cocreation from resource fusion (integration) and fission (specialization) Criminals Government Agents Users Agencies Insurance Competitors Intermediaries Consultants Customers Web Communities Managers Third PartiesShareholders Engineers Banks eBusinesses Suppliers Contractors Employees PEOPLE ORGANIZATIONS Needs Experience Aspirations AS-IS OUTCOME Learning Benefits Wants Target & Relationships Context SERVICE Target & Context Gaps Side Effects Goals Constraints TO-BE (Value-Cocreation) IF-REDONE Sacrifices Target & Disputes Target & Responsibilities Context Context Unintended Consequences Expectations TECHNOLOGY/ SHARED Insights ENVIRONMENT INFORMATION Procedures Regulations Policies Hardware Buildings Vehicles Flowcharts Plans Applications Diagrams / Schematics Equipment Instructions Rules 98 Tools Templates Infrastructure Software Schedules
    • 99. What is service science? A service system? The ABC’s? Design/ Cognitive Science Systems Engineering “service science is “a service system is athe transdisciplinary study of human-made system to improve service systems & provider-customer interactions value-cocreation” and value-cocreation outcomes, by dynamically configuring resource Marketing access via value propositions, most often studied by many disciplines, one piece at a time.” The ABC’s: The provider (A) and a customer (B) transform a target (C) Computer Science/ Artificial Intelligence Economics & Law Operations 99 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 100. Systems-Disciplines Framework: Depth & Breadth systems Systems that focus on flows of things Systems that support people’s activities Systems that govern transportation & ICT & retail & healthcare food & education city state nation disciplines supply chain water & energy products & electricity cloud building & hospitality banking & family &work secure scale laws waste construction & finance behavioral sciences Customerstakeholders e.g., marketing Provider management sciences e.g., operations Observe Stakeholders (As-Is) political sciences Authority e.g., public policy learning sciences Competitors e.g., game theory and strategy cognitive sciences People e.g., psychologyresources system sciences Technology e.g., industrial eng. information sciences Observe Resource Access (As-Is) Information e.g., computer sci organization sciences Organizations e.g., knowledge mgmt History social scienceschange e.g., econ & law (Data Analytics) decision sciences Imagine Possibilities (Has-Been & Might-Become) Future e.g., stats & design (Roadmap) run professions Run e.g., knowledge worker Transformvalue (Copy) transform professions e.g., consultant Realize Value (To-Be) Innovate innovate professions (Invent) e.g., entrepreneur 100 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 101. IBM’s Leadership Changes IBM has 426,000 employees worldwide 2011 Financials 22% of IBM’s revenue  Revenue - $ 106.9B in Growth Market  Net Income - $ 15.9B countries; growing at 11% in 2011  EPS - $ 13.44  Net Cash - $16.6B More than 40% of IBM’s workforce conducts business away from an office 55% of IBM’s WorkforceIBM operates in 170 is New to the company incountries around the globe the last 5 years Number 1 in patent generation for 19100 Years of Business consecutive years ;& Innovation in 2011 6,180 US patents awarded in 2011 The Smartest Machine On Earth 9 time winner of the 5 Nobel President’s National Laureates Medal of Technology & Innovation - latest “Let’s Build a Smarter award for Blue Gene Planet" Supercomputer 101 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 102. Up-Skill = New Venture = Graduates with Smarter Planet skills = High-GrowthCycle = Acquisition = IBMer moving from Acquisition/ New IBM BU mature BU to acquisition (Growing) = IBMer moving into IBMer on Campus role (help create graduates = High-Productivity/University-Region1 with Smarter-Planet skills, Mature IBM BU help create Smarter Planet oriented new ventures; (Shrinking) Refresh skillsUniversity-Region2 IBM102 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 103. Sustainability/Resilience & Innovation: Local-p global-i supply chains World as System of Systems World (light blue - largest) Nations (green - large) States (dark blue - medium) Cities (yellow - small) Universities (red - smallest) Cities as System of Systems Developed Market -Transportation & Supply Chain Nations -Water & Waste Recycling (> $20K GDP/Capita) -Food & Products ((Nano) -Energy & Electricity -Information/ICT & Cloud (Info) -Buildings & Construction Emerging Market -Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment Nations -Banking & Finance (< $20K GDP/Capita) -Healthcare & Family (Bio) -Education & Professions (Cogno) -Government (City, State, Nation) Nations: Innovation Opportunities - GDP/Capita (level and growth rate) - Energy/Capita (fossil and renewable)103 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 104. ~250 years of infrastructure transformations Installation Crash Deployment Irruption Frenzy Synergy Maturity • Formation of Mfg. industry 1 The I ndust r i al 1771 Panic • Repeal of Corn Laws 1829 Revol ut i on 1797 opening trade • Standards on gauge, time A ge of St eam Panic 2 and Rai l ways 1829 1847 • Catalog sales companies 1873 • Economies of scale A ge of St eel , Depressio • Urban development 3 El ect r i ci t y 1875 n • Support for interventionism 1920 1893 and Heavy Engi neer i ng • Build-out of Interstate A ge of Oi l , Crash 4 A ut omobi l es 1908 1929 highways 1974 • IMF, World Bank, BIS and Mass Pr oduct i on Coming period of A ge of I nf or mat i on Credit Crisis 5 and 1971 2008 Institutional Adjustment and Production Capital Tel ecommuni cat i ons Source: Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages; (Edward Elar Publishers, 2003).104 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 105. ~100 years of US job transformations Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis105 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 106. We need better frameworks, theories, and models of… Four I’s Cultural Information – Infrastructure (Quality-of-Life Measures) – Individuals – Institutions – Information Individuals Institutions Four Measures (Skills) (Rules, Jobs) – Innovativeness – Equity – Sustainability Societal Infrastructure – Resiliency (Technologies & Environment)106 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 107. Service systems entities learn to apply knowledge Learning To Apply Knowledge Do It Invent It Exploitation Exploration Run Transform Innovate Operations L Internal Incremental Maintenance Copy It External Radical Insurance Interaction Super-Radical March, J.G. (1991) Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organizational Science. 2(1).71-87. Sanford, L.S. (2006) Let go to grow: Escaping the commodity trap. Prentice Hall. New York, NY.107 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 108. Service Science: Conceptual Framework Ecology (Populations & Diversity) Entities Interactions Outcomes (Service Systems, both (Service Networks, (Value Changes, bothIndividuals & Institutions) link, nest, merge, divide) beneficial and non-beneficial) Identity Value Proposition Governance Mechanism Reputation (Aspirations & Lifecycle/ (Offers & Reconfigurations/ (Rules & Constraints/ (Opportunities & Variety/ History) Incentives, Penalties & Risks) Incentives, Penalties & Risks) History) Access Rights Measures (Relationships of Entities) (Rankings of Entities) lose-win win-win prefer sustainable lose-lose win-lose non-zero-sum Resources Stakeholders outcomes, (Competences, Roles in Processes, (Processes of Valuing, i.e., win-win Specialized, Integrated/Holistic) Perspectives, Engagement)  Resources: People, Organizations, Technology, Shared Information  Resources: Individuals, Institutions, Infrastructure, Information  Stakeholders: Customers, Providers, Authorities, Competitors  Measures: Quality, Productivity, Compliance, Sustainable Innovation  Access Rights: Own, Lease, Shared, Privileged Spohrer, JC (2011) On looking into Vargo and Luschs concept of generic actors in markets, or “Its all B2B …and beyond!” Industrial Marketing Management, 40(2), 199–201. 108 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 109. 14B Where is the “Real Science” - wonders to appreciate? 10KBig Bang In the many sciences that study the natural and human-made worlds… Cities (Natural Unraveling the mystery of evolving hierarchical-complexity in new populations… (Human-Made Time World) To discover the world’s architectures and mechanisms for computing non-zero-sum Entity Architectures (ЄN) of nested, networked Holistic-Product-Service-Systems (HPSS) World) writing (symbols and scribes, stored memory and knowledge) written laws ECOLOGY (governance and stored control) sun (energy) money earth (governed (molecules & transportable valuestored energy) stored value, “economic energy”) bacteria(single-cell life) bees (social sponges transistor division-of-labor)(multi-cell life) (routine cognitive work) universities (knowledge workersclams (neurons) printing press (books 109 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporationtrilobites (brains) 200M 60 steam engine (work)
    • 110. Measuring Impact SSME: IBM Icon of Progress & IBM Research Outstanding Accomplishment – Internal 10x return: CBM, IDG, SDM Pricing & Costing, BIW COBRA, SIMPLE, IoFT, Fringe, VCR • Key was tools to model customers & IBM better • Also tools to shift routine physical, mental, interactional & identify synergistic new ventures • Alignment with Smarter Planet & Analytics (instrumented, interconnected, intelligent) • Alignment with Smarter Cities, Smarter Campus, Smarter Buildings (Holistic Service Systems) – External: More than $1B in national investments in Service Innovation activities – External: Increase conferences, journals, and publications – External: Service Science SIGs in Professional Associations – External: Course & Program Guidelines for T-shaped Professionals, 500+ institutions – External: National Service Science Institutions, Books & Case Studies (Open Services Innovation) Service Research, a Portfolio Approach – 1. Improve existing offerings (value propositions that can move the needle on KPI’s) – 2. Create new offerings (for old and new customers) – 3. Improve outcomes insourcing, outsourcing, acquisitions, divestitures (interconnect-fission-fusion) – 4. For all three of the above, improve customer/partner capabilities (ratchet each other up) – 5. For all four of the above, increase patents and service IP assets (some donated to open forums) – 6. For all five of the above, increase publications and body-of-knowledge (professional associations)110 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 111. Who I am  Director IBM Global University Programs since 2009 – Global team works with 5000 university world wide (http://www.ibm.com/university) – Research (Awards), Readiness (Skills), Recruiting, Revenue, Responsibility – Transform “IBM on Campus” brand awareness (“Smarter Planet/Smarter Cities”) – Create “Urban Service System” Research Centers & U-BEEs  Founding Director of IBMs first Service Research group from 2003-2009 – Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA – 10x ROI with four IBM outstanding and eleven accomplishment awards – Improve existing offerings, create new, portfolio synergies, partners, patents, publications – I know/work with service research pioneers from many academic disciplines • I advocate for Service Science, Management, Engineering, and Design (SSME+D) – Short-term: Curriculum (T-shaped people, deep in an existing discipline) – Long-term: New transdiscipline and profession (awaiting CAD tool) • I advocate for SRII (“one of the founding fathers”) • Co-editor of the “Handbook of Service Science” (Springer 2010)  Other background (late 90’s and before) – Founding CTO of IBM’s Venture Capital Relations group in Silicon Valley – Apple Computer’s (Distinguished Engineer Scientist and Technologist) award (90’s) – Ph.D. Computer Science/Artificial Intelligence from Yale University (80’s) – B.S. in Physics from MIT (70’s)111 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 112. Eleven levels of systemsLevel AKA ~No. People ~No. Entities Example0. Individual Person 1 10,000,000,000 Jim1. Family Household 10 1,000,000,000 Spohrer’s2.Neighborhood Street 100 100,000,000 Kensington3. Community Block 1000 10,000,000 Bird Land4. Urban-Zone District 10,000 1,000,000 SC Unified5. Urban-Center City 100,0000 100,000 Santa Clara6.Metro-Region County 1,000,000 10,000 SC County7. State Province 10,000,000 1,000 CA8. Nation Country 100,000,000 100 USA9. Continent Union 1,000,000,000 10 NAFTA10. Planet World 10,000,000,000 1 UN112 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 113. Societal resiliency includes all levels Matryoska dolls: Origin Japanese113 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation
    • 114. What is the future? We can imagine many possibilities… Kurzweilai.net114 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation