Efforts to establish service science have made significant progress in the last seven years, as the community approaches one decade of efforts – what new directions are looming? For one thing: More focus on regional innovation ecosystems, and improving service systems to improve quality-of-life (i.e., Smarter Planet). As agriculture and manufacturing production become more automated and sustainable, regional innovation ecosystems must rethink product-service systems, the skills needed for the future, and how government-academics-and-industry work together to create service innovation roadmaps. Reference content from this presentation as: Spohrer, JC (2011) Service Science: Progress & Directions. International Joint Conference on Service Science 2011. Taipei, Taiwan. . Permission to redistribute granted upon request to firstname.lastname@example.org
I want to thank my IBM colleagues… here are some facts about IBM… Sources http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM#cite_note-10K-0 http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/33341.wss http://www.fiercecio.com/press-releases/ibm-reports-2010-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-nyse-ibm-q4
This talk will covers two main topics… Service science progress… Service science directions…. topics: A stimulus, a response, and an evolution Stimulus: Service Growth (for the World and IBM) Response: Service Science Priorities (from the Cambridge University report and the Arizona State University report) Evolution: Service science for a Smarter Planet – tries to answer a series of questions - What is smarter planet - What improves quality-of-life - What is a service system? What is service science? - What’s the skills goal? - Where are projects happening? - Where is the science? Today, at IBM we are applying service science to help build a Smarter Planet, one that is instrumented, interconnected, and intelligent through better decision-making from improved analytics and models of complex service system networks. We are working together with government, academics, and industry partners to build Smarter Cities in a growing number of developed and emerging nations around the world.
We all know that economists have been reporting on the growth of the service economy for the last century… Over the last two hundred years, the US has shifted from agriculture to manufacturing to service jobs, as dominant. The growth in service jobs parallels the growth of the information economy, and many of the jobs are knowledge-intensive, including finance, health, education, government, B2B, etc. Developed and emerging markets are seeing the same shift – this is a global trend. What was clear was that all developed and emerging market nations where shifting to service economies due to increasing use of technology in manufacturing and agriculture (productivity increases), and increasing use of information technology in traditional service areas, including utilities, building maintenance, retail & hospitality, finance, health, education, and government – making the service sector more knowledge-intensive and requiring more technical skills. As well as more outsourcing, leading to more B2B service. In the back-up slides we introduce the concept of product-service-systems to better understand the way the global economies are evolving… ServicesOLD= Not Natural or Manufactured Products (Negative) ServiceNEW = Applying Knowledge/Resources to Benefit Customers/Stakeholders (Positive) Why does outsourcing the jobs or changing the business model (e.g., leasing, mass-customizaton) cause the category to change? It shouldn’t, modern farms and factories are service systems too… See the following papers… Vargo & Lusch (2004) Evolving to a New Dominant Logic for Marketing. Journal of Marketing. Tien & Berg (2006) On Services Research and Education. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. Two ways the Firm can think about the world: Firm – can I think of things my customers want to own, and how can I make and sell those things. Firm – can I think of ongoing relationships/interactions with my customers and their stakeholders, and how can I establish and continuously improve those interactions in a win-win manner Fact: Service growth in “national economies” All nations are experiencing a macro-economic shift from value in producing physical things (agriculture and goods) to value from apply capabilities for the benefit of others (services). Observation: Service sector is where the job growth is, not only in the US but around the world. Implication: Most science and engineering and management jobs will be in the service sector. For example, Kenneth Smith of H.B.Maynard (one of the oldest and most prestigious industrial engineering consulting firms) said - “Historically, most of our business at H.B. Maynard was manufacturing, today roughly 80% is in the retail sector…” So why do we still train most scientist and engineers for manufacturing age jobs? Could this be part of the reason that in most US engineering schools only 50% of entering engineering students graduate with an engineering degree? The service sector is the fastest growing segment of global economies. In the US, in 1800 90% of people were worked on farms, and today less than 3% of workers are employed in agriculture. Goods, or manufacturing of physical products, peaked in the US in the mid-1950’s and has been decreasing ever since due to automation and off shoring. However, services, especially complex information and business services, as we will see is where the growth is. But the growth in the service sector jobs is not just in the developed countries, it is also happening in the developing countries. In fact, the International Labor Organization, reports that 2006 was the first time in human history that more people worker in the service sector than in agriculture world wide. 40% in service sector, 39.7% in agriculture, and 21.3% in manufacturing, with the growth coming by moving people from agriculture to services – this represents the largest labor force migration in human history. 1970 estimates % of service in labor force (change to 2005/2009 est) China 12 +17 142% India 17 +6 35% US 62 +14 23% Indonesia 29 +10 34% Brazil 41 +25 61% Russia 42 +27 64% Japan 48 +19 45% Nigeria 16 +3 19% Bangledesh 19 +7 37% Germany 45 +19 42%
We also know that some people have questioned the sharp distinction that economists have made, and instead prefer the notion of product-service system…. Also, more and more product businesses, those in both manufacturing, mining, agriculture, are increasingly part of value networks and service chains that require thinking about service innovation. All businesses have both a front-stage (direct customer contact) and a back-stage (no-direct customer contact)… so the distinction between product businesses and service businesses is disappearing, and more and more people talk about product-service-systems or service-system-entities. The point is simply that as more of the world lives in cities, and as more product businesses see themselves as product-service-systems, the trend towards service is inexorable, and cannot be ignored in research and education. Academia has begun to study service both from a front-stage customer-interaction focus as well as a back-stage operational efficiciency focus. Service innovation and design impact both front-stage and back-stage, because when value chains and networks form, front-stage and back-stage are relative terms. The focus is on people, their capabilities (skills and competencies), their tools, and who and what they interact with most in value creation networks. Human-Capabilities-Tools- and-Interactions in Value Creation Networks Managers and Engineers from both Service and Product Businesses seeking to improve their business performance Academic Researchers from many disciplines and schools seeking funding, data sets, and access for both empirical studies and action research (design and interventions) to advance scientific knowledge and publish results in top journals Policy Makers and Concerned Citizens seeking to improve the performance of their governments and societal institutions Quality-of-Life including Quality of service to customers Quality of jobs to employees Quality of investment opportunities to stakeholders Sustainable Innovation People, Planet,Profits Should We, Can We, May We, Will We Surprisingly to some, the service science community includes managers and engineers from both service busineses and product businesses. Service businesses can learn a lot about operational efficiency from product businesses, and product businesses can learn a lot about customer value from service businesses. This is because as Harvard’s Theordore Leavitt observed in his famous 1974 paper, all businesses include some amount of front stage activities (direct customer contact) and some amount of back stage activities (no direct customer contact). In traditional service firms, the front stage dominates and in traditional product companies the back stage dominates, in terms of number of employees. In addition to Managers and Engineers from both Service and Produce Businesses, the service science commnuity also includes academic researchers from many disciplines and schools, including engineering schools, management schools, social science schools, and information schools. Furthermore, the service science community is not restricted to for-profit businesses and academics, the community also include government policy makers and concerned citizens seeking to improve the performance of government institutions and diverse types of non-profit organizations.
If you haven’t seen it look for high tech car factory video …
We all know about the growth of service revenue at IBM and other historically product manufacturing companies… (see Prof. Henry Chesbrough latest book as well as recent article on TSMC “ Real Men Have Fabs” http://www.strategy-business.com/article/11210?pg=all) IBM has seen its service revenue grow, and lead the growth of IBM in the last two decades. In the last two decades the growth was B2B, in the coming decade it will be B2G service growth – powered in part by shared service across government and cloud computing… Fact: Service growth in “manufacturing” businesses 2008 GTS 40 (39.2) GBS 20 (19.6) SWG 22 (22.1) S&T 20 (19.2) FIN 2 (2.6) Total 103.6B Profit 45.6B
We also know that manufacturing companies have a great interest in service innovation – the Cambridge SSME report was done by the Institute for Manufacturing faculty… Researchers at University of Cambridge hosted industry and academic service researchers to create a framework for service innovation success… The framework is outlined in five columns – service innovation is the priority, we need to study service systems and networks, we call this study service science, and multiple stakeholders have to align to advance service science, and double investment in service research and education by 2015. You can read the complete report at the following URL: http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ssme/ To ensure we are making progress, we need to see how much government, academia, and industry are investing in service research and innovation. IfM and IBM (2008). Succeeding through service innovation: A service perspective for education, research, business and government. Cambridge, UK: University of Cambridge Institute for Manufacturing.
We all know the UKK Royal Society has come a recent report that emphasizes the role of science in service innovation… UK Royal Society: http://royalsociety.org/Hidden-wealth-The-contribution-of-science-to-service-sector-innovation/ Germany MARS: http://www.slideshare.net/whatidiscover/mars-1834481 ASU CSL: http://wpcarey.asu.edu/csl/upload/CSL-Business-Report.pdf
We also know about the many attempts to create research frameworks for service science… Researchers at Arizona State University in the US recently surveyed service researchers from around the world to create a research priorities framework for service science. You can read the executive summary at the following website: http://wpcarey.asu.edu/csl/knowledge/Research-Priorities.cfm You can read the complete article in the Journal of Service Research… Ostrom, AL, MJ Bitner, SW Brown, KA Burkhard, M Goul, V Smith-Daniels, H Demirkan, E Rabinovich (2010) Moving Forward and Making a Difference: Research Priorities for the Science of Service. Journal of Service Research. 13(1). 4-36.
We also know about the importance of SDL the beginning of a worldview for service science – and the broader notion of products as appliance for delivery of service outcomes…. If you do not know about SDL, I urge you to read about it – it will help you appreciate the quote by theordore levitt of harvard in the 1970’s that people do not want a ¾” drill, what they really want is a ¾” hole… Resource Integrator = Service-Systems = Product-Service-System A service system entity can be a person, a business, or a government entity. A service system has to have rights and be able to own property – either the focal person or focal group (role fillers) in case of an organization. Think of an individual person like a sole proprietorship, with all the resources that are part of the legal entity.
In the Handbook of Service Science, and other publications, we have layed out the conceptual foundations of service science – the first approximation of terms we believe every service scientist should know… The world view is that of an ecology of service-system-entities. Ecology is the study of the populations of entities, and their interactions with each other and the environment Types of Service System Entities, Interactions, and Outcomes is what a service scientist studies. Service systems include: Person, Family/Household, Business, Citiy, Nation, University, Hospital, Call-Center, Data-Center, etc. – any legal entity that can own property and be sued We see that Resources (People, Technology, Information, Organizations) and Stakeholder (Customers, Providers, Authorities, Competitors) are part of the conceptual framework for service science.
In publications, we have also talked about foundational premises of service science, such as service system entities configure four type of resourves… Four key types of resources: People – example, a doctor or a nurse Technology – example, a computer or car, but can also be the environment, such as an agricultural-field or a coal-mine Organizations – example, IBM or a university like MIT or a government like the national government of Germany Shared Information – example, could be language, laws, measures, etc. Physicists resolve disputes about what is physical and non-physical Judges resolve disputes about rights, within their jurisdictions
Service system entities calculate value from multiple stakeholder perspectives Four Key Stakeholder Perspectives: P = Provider C = Customer A = Authority S = Substitute (Competitor)
Service system entities reconfigure access rights to resources by mutually agreed to value propositions Four key types of access rights: Owned Outright – buying a car or a house Leased/Contract – renting a car or hotel room Shared Access – most roads, the air, and common-pool-resources Privileged Access – your thoughts, governors access to the governor’s mansion, marriage, childbirth (follows from nature or roles)
Service system entities interact to create ten types of outcomes, which elaborates game theories four outcomes of a two player game, to reflect that even two players games take place in the context of four primary stakeholders – the customer, the provider, the authority, and the competitors. Normative – service systems judge each other and have expectations about expected and desired behaviors… (sometimes formalized as laws) The purpose of Service Systems is Value-Cocreation (North’s economic institutions, Barnard’s cooperative systems, Trist’s sociotechnical systems, Engelbart’s augmentation systems, Normann’s value creation systems, Malone’s coordination science, Flores, Williamson TCE/NIE/Contracting, etc.) Provider and client interact to co-create value Value is achieving desired change or the prevention/undoing of unwanted change Changes can be physical, mental, or social Value is in the eye of the beholder, and may include complex subjective intangibles, bartered – knowledge intensive trust matters transaction costs matter Boundary of service experience in space and time may be complex Service is value coproduction, or finding win-win interactions between a provide and a customer. If service is value coproduction, what is a service system? The simplest service system is a person (consumes and produces services), a business enterprise is also a service system (consumes and produces services), and a nation can be viewed as a service system (produces and consumes services). ------------------ Depending on time scale and outcome, both war and investment can be a lose-lose encounter.
Service system entities learn to systematically exploit info & tech Add Rickets “Reaching the Goal” for Internal-External-Interaction Constraints. Explain Incrmental-Radical-Super-Radical in terms of units.
This premise can be seen in the changing nature of jobs, as what it means to be routine manual or routine cognitive labor is constantly reshaped by technology, and old routine jobs go away, replaced by new jobs that require different and perhaps higher skills… As information and technology are exploited routine manual and routine cognitive aspects of jobs go away, and more complex communication and expert thinking are required….
Also, recently in the Handbook of Service Science, in Spohrer and Maglio we describe the importance of symbol processing in service systems for the calculation and innovation of value cocreation opportunities…
We can summarize these as the six foundational premises of service science, and empirical evidence for and against them can be marshaled… and studies are appearing that do just that…
In shifting to future directions for service science, there are two main chanlleges…. Roughgarden, T. (2005), Selfish Routing and the Price of Anarchy , MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Figure 1: Pigou’s Example. Selfish actors all take the lower road (y=1.0), leading to congestion and a 1 hour commute time. A rule that randomly assigns half the drivers to the upper road and half to the lower road (y=0.5) improves the expected commute time to just 0.75 hours (i.e., half the drivers on the upper route take 1 hour, and half the drivers on the lower route take 0.5 hours).
Part of IBM’s approach to the second problem is T-shaped people and service science…. What is the skills goal? T-shaped professional, ready for T-eamwork… T-shaped people are ready for T-eamwork – they are excellent communicators, with real world experience, and deep (or specialized) in at least one discipline and systems area, but with good team work skills interacting with others who are deep in other disciplines and systems areas. Also, T-shaped professionals also make excellent entrepreneurs, able to innovate with others to create new technology, business, and societal innovations. T-shaped people are adaptive innovators, and well prepared for life-long learning in case they need to become deep in some new area… they are better prepared than I-shaped people, who lack the breadth. Therefore, IBM and other public and private organizations are looking to hire more of this new kind of skills and experience profile – one that is both broad and deep.. These organizations have been collaborating with universities around the world to establish a new area of study known as service science, management, engineering, and design (SSMED) – to prepare computer scientists, MBAs, industrial engineers, operations research, management of information systems, systems engineers, and students of many other discipline areas – to understand better how to work on multidisciplinary teams and attack the grand challenge problems associated with improving service systems…
The reasonable questions: What is a service system? What is service science? A service system is a human-made system to improve customer-provider interactions, or value-cocreation. As a customer, who is your favorite service provider? Don’t have one – well that is one reason we need service science : - ) More seriously service systems can be very complex… Because service systems are so complex, many different disciplines study different aspects of them… you can think of marketing as study the trunk of the elephant (the customer) and operations as studying the tale (the provider), design and psychology the user experience, computer science the information systems part, systems engineering some aspects of the engineered parts of the system, and economics other aspects of the value creation, not studied by the systems engineers… in fact many people say “Service science is just <and then they name their favorite discipline>” Service Science is the study of service systems and value cocreation…. including routine and non-routine, direct and indirect, customer and provider interactions that achieve value-cocreation outcomes for all stakeholders Economics Service 1 = economic activities that are not agriculture or manufacturing Service 3 = a transformation that one economic entity performs with the permission of a second entity, that transforms the second entity or a possession of the second entity Service 4 = an exchange between economic entities that does not transfer ownership of a physical thing. Service Science Service 2 = human-made value-cocreation phenomena, specifically a mutually beneficial outcome proposed, agreed to, and realized by two or more service system entities interacting. Service system entities can be people, businesses, nations, and any other economic entities with legal rights, such as the ability to own property, enter into binding contracts, etc. Quantifiable measures associated with service system entity interactions over the life-time of the entity, include quality, productivity, compliance, and sustainable innovation measures. Service system entities configure four types of resources, accessible by four types of access rights, and reason about four types of stakeholders when designing value-cocreation interactions, and evaluating them via their processes of valuing. Both collaboration and competition can both be/not be forms of value-cocreation, depending on context Operations Service 5 = a production process that requires inputs from a customer entity Computer Science Service 6 = a modular capability that can be computationally accessed and composed with others Systems Engineering Service 7 = a system (with inputs, outputs, capacity limits, and performance characteristics) which is interconnected with other systems that may seek to access its capabilities to create benefits, and in which local optimization of the system interactions may not lead to global performance improvements Design and Psychology Service 8 = an experience of a customer entity that results from that customer entity interacting with provider entities’ offerings Marketing Service 9 = the application of competence (e.g., resources, skills, capabilities) for the benefit of another entity Service 10 = a customer-provider interaction that creates mutual benefits
How to visualize service science? The systems-disciplines matrix… SSMED or service science, for short, provides a transdisciplinary framework for organizing student learning around 13 systems areas and 13 specialized academic discipline areas. We have already discussed the 13 systems areas, and the three groups (flows, human activity, and governing)… the discipline areas are organized into four areas that deal with stakeholders, resources, change, and value creation. If we have time, I have included some back-up slides that describes service science in the next level of detail. However, to understand the transdisciplinary framework, one just needs to appreciate that discipline areas such as marketing, operations, public policy, strategy, psychology, industrial engineering, computer science, organizational science, economics, statistics, and others can be applied to any of the 13 types of systems. Service science provides a transdisciplinary framework to organize problem sets and exercises that help students in any of these disciplines become better T-shaped professionals, and ready for teamwork on multidisciplinary teams working to improve any type of service system. As existing disciplines graduate more students who are T-shaped, and have exposure to service science, the world becomes better prepared to solve grand challenge problems and create smarter systems that deliver modern service. Especially, where students have had the opportunity to work as part of an urban innovation center that links their university with real-world problems in their urban environment – they will have important experiences to help them contribute to solving grand challenge problems. ================================================ SSMED (Service Science, Management, Engineering and Design) Systems change over their life cycle… what is inside become outside and vice versa In the course of the lifecycle… systems are merged and divested (fusion and fission) systems are insourced and outsourced (leased/contracted relations) systems are input and output (owner ship relations) SSMED standard should ensure people know 13 systems and 13 disciplines/professions (the key is knowing them all to the right level to be able to communicate and problem-solve effectively) Multidisciplinary teams – solve problems that require discipline knowledge Interdisciplinary teams – solve harder problems, because they create new knowledge in between disciplines Transdisciplinary teams – solve very hard problems, because the people know discipline and system knowledge Ross Dawson says “Collaboration drives everything” in his talk about the future of universities… https://deimos.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/BrowsePrivately/griffith.edu.au.3684852440
To see what T-shaped people means in practice, you can go to the ibm.com/jobs website and search the thousands of jobs world wide, and you will see categories of jobs, and indications of the disciplines and systems that will be the focus of the work, but also collectively all the diffferent types of disciplines and systems that IBM depends on to co-create value with our customers… At IBM, many of our employees work as part of project teams on innovation that matters to customers. The project teams include industry/system consultants, solution architects, project managers, sales teams, and many many specialists. Specialist (45% of IBM employees) can be technology specialists, industry specialists, academic discipline specialists, technicians, call center agents, software application specialists, data analytics experts, and more – what ever it takes to transform and innovate systems in business, government, education, healthcare, etc. About 60%, well more than half of IBM’s revenue comes from global business and technology service groups or GBS and GTS… this increase in business for IBM global service (IGS) groups is part of a bigger trend… ================== Consultant: Consultants have deep knowledge of customers. They help IBM customers realize business and societal benefits by helping them make faster, smarter decisions; reduce risks; leverage core competencies and increase return on investment (ROI). Consultants serve as effective business advisors; conduct research, data collection and analysis; and prepare, present and deliver recommendations and solutions to clients. Sales: Sales professionals are responsible for the sale and support of IBM solutions, services, products and offerings, including those from IBM Business Partners. These professionals are responsible for the overall business relationship with IBM's clients and sometimes specialize by industry, customer set, channel, brand, solution or offering. Architect: Defines, or architects, solutions to client business problems by applying reason through information technology. Much of the IT Architect's work is focused on the front end of the solution life cycle: listening to clients, understanding their business requirements and forming the structures of an information technology solution — an architecture. Project Manager: Leads and is accountable for the success of the project. Project managers are responsible for a variety of activities, including initializing and planning projects, developing project cost structure, tracking and reporting project deliverables, managing risk, managing contracts and applying project management processes and tools. Specialist: Specialists have deep knowledge of applications, industries, and types of models/data. Specialists develops proofs of concepts and complete systems., They design, develop, build, test and implement systems. Specialists are hands-on professionals who have in-depth understanding of products, offerings and services within their specialty. Members of this profession perform services for a fee, provide technical support for product sales or support IBM's internal infrastructure.
One part of IBM’s approach to the first problem is the Smarter Planet initiative and service science… The evolution of service science is to apply service science to create a Smarter Planet. What is smarter planet? A smarter planet is built out of many harmonized smarter systems, systems that are instrumented, interconnected, and intelligent (data, models, and analytics software are used to make better decisions) The world is instrumented meaning everything has computers, cameras, gps or other sensors – cars, stop lights, signs, roads, hospitals, retail stores, rivers, bridges, etc.. The world is getting more and more interconnected. If we could capture the right data and analyze it, we can make our planet smarter. IBM has been working on cleaning up pollution in Galway Bay, Ireland. The marine scientists told the IBMers that the mussels in the water close their shells when something bad enters the water. So IBM put sensors in some of the mussels and connected the sensors to an alert system and visualization system. When a pollutant enters the water, the mussels shut their shells, the sensors sends an alert and water management officials begin to take action to clean it up. Over time, they realize that a particular ship may be coming into the bay every other Tuesday, causing the problem, and they can go after the ship company to not drop pollutants or to find another way to rid of waste. This optimization takes place with other causes of the pollutants.
Our approach to the first problem has been to launch the Smarter Planet initiative… Korsten, P. and Seider, C. (2010) The world’s US$4 trillion challenge: Using a system-of-systems approach to build a smarter planet. IBM Institute for Business Value. http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/ibv-smarter-planet-system-of-systems.html The IBM report concluded that our planet can be viewed as a complex, dynamic, highly interconnected $54 trillion system of systems…. Some of you recognize that $54 trillion number is 100% if the WW 2008 GDP, and because GDP does not capture all the value (both gray and black market, as well as many types of value created by families and communities that is not part of formal economic exchange) the real value is much higher – but still $54 trillion per year is a very large number. The US economy is about 20-25% of the total. Also the top 2000 publically traded companies in the world, have annual revenues that are nearly 50% of this amount. So while it is a large number, it is possible to estimate the contribution made by individual nations and individual large businesses – and most importantly it is possible to see how complex and interconnected these systems are. But what about the waste or inefficiencies in these systems…
Korsten, P. and Seider, C. (2010) The world’s US$4 trillion challenge: Using a system-of-systems approach to build a smarter planet. IBM Institute for Business Value. http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/ibv-smarter-planet-system-of-systems.html The 480 economists surveyed estimate that all the systems carry inefficientes of up to $15 trillion, of which $4 trillion could be eliminated… The title of this IBM Business Value report is in fact “The World’s $4 Trillion Challenge: Using a system of systems approach to build a smarter planet.” One implication of this report since cities are where most of the population of the world is concentrated, is that some number of cities have over $1B in annual waste and inefficiencies that can be eliminated. This report is required reading for everyone in cities and universities around the world, who are interested in partnering together to first (1) estimate and develop ways of measuring the inefficiencies, and then (2) create actions plans that can compete for funding and other resources to make needed changes. As the systems reduce waste and expand capabilities for measuring inefficiencies, the systems become smarter systems and quality of life is improved thru modern service… And the good news is that every day there are more and more success stories being created. For example, the 2009 IBM Annual Report contains a map of the world….
Our approach to the second problem is Smarter Planet… What improves quality of life? Service system innovations. Every day we are customers of 13 types of service systems. If any of them fail, we have a “bad day” (Katrina New Orleans) I have been to two service science related conferences recently, one in Japan on Service Design and one in Portugal on Service Marketing… the papers from the proceedings of the conferences mapped onto all of these types of service systems… The numbers in yellow: 61 papers Service Design (Japan) / 75 papers Service Marketing (Portugal) / 78 Papers Service-Oriented Computing (US) Number in yellow Fist number: Service Design Conference, Japan 2 nd International Service Innovation Design Conference (ISIDC 2010), Future University Hakodate, Japan Second number Service Marketing Conference, Portugal, AMA SERVSIG at U Porto, Portugal Numbers in yellow: Number of AMA ServSIG 2010 abstracts that study each type of service system… (http://www.servsig2010.org/) Of 132 total abstracts… 10 studies all types of service systems 19 could not be classified In a moment we will look at definitions of quality of life, but for the moment, consider that everyday we all depend on 13 systems to have a relatively high quality of life, and if any one of these systems goes out or stops providing good service, then our quality of life suffers…. Transportation, Water, Food, Energy, Information, Buildings, Retail, Banking & Financial Services (like credit cards), Healthcare, Education, and Government at the City, State, and National levels…. Volcanic ash, hurricanes, earthquakes, snow storms, floods are some of the types of natural disasters that impact the operation of these service systems – but human made challenges like budget crises, bank failures, terrorism, wars, etc. can also impact the operation of these 13 all important service systems. Moreover, even when these systems are operating normally – we humans may not be satisfied with the quality of service or the quality of jobs in these systems. We want both the quality of service and the quality of jobs in these systems to get better year over year, ideally, but sometimes, like healthcare and education, the cost of maintaining existing quality levels seems to be a challenge as costs continue to rise… why is that “smarter” or sustainable innovation, which continuously reduces waste, and expands the capabilities of these systems is so hard to achieve? Can we truly achieve smarter systems and modern service? A number of organizations are asking these questions – and before looking at how these questions are being formalized into grand challenge questions for society – let’s look at what an IBM report concluded after surveying about 400 economists…. ==================== Quality of life for the average citizen (voter) depends on the quality of service and quality of jobs in 13 basic systems….. Local progress (from the perspective of the average citizen or voter) can be defined for our purposes as (quality of service & jobs) + returns (the provider, which is really the investor perspective, the risk taker in provisioning the service) + security (the authority or government perspective on the cost of maintaining order, and dealing with rules and rule violations) + smarter (or the first derivative – does all this get better over time – parents often talk about wanting to help create a better world for their children - sustainable innovation, means reducing waste, being good stewards of the planet, and expanding our capabilities to do things better and respond to challenges and outlier events better)…. Without putting too fine a point on it, most of the really important grand challenges in business and society relate to improving quality of life. Quality of life is a function of both quality of service from systems and quality of opportunities (or jobs) in systems. We have identified 13 systems that fit into three major categories – systems that focus on basic things people need, systems that focus on people’s activities and development, and systems that focus on governing. IBM’s Institute for Business Value has identified a $4 trillion challenge that can be addressed by using a system of systems approach. Employment data… 2008 http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.t02.htm A. 3+0.4+0.5+8.9+1.4+2.0=16.2 B. C.13.1+1.8=14.9 Total 150,932 (100%) Transportation (Transportation and Warehousing 4,505 (3%)) Water & Waste (Utilities 560 (0.4%)) Food & Manufacturing (Mining 717 (0.5%), Manufacturing 13,431 (8.9%), Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 2,098 (1.4%)) Energy & Electricity Information (Information 2,997 (2%)) Construction (Construction 7,215 (4.8%)) Retail & Hospitality (Wholesale Trade 5,964 (4.0%), Retail Trade 15,356 (10.2%), Leisure and hospitality 13,459 (8.9%)) Financial & Banking/Business & Consulting (Financial activities 8,146 (5.4%), Professional and business services 17,778 (11.8%), Other services 6,333 (4.2%)) Healthcare (Healthcare and social assistance 15,819 (10.5%) Education (Educational services 3,037 (2%), Self-employed and unpaid family 9,313 (6.2%), Secondary jobs self-employed and unpaid family 1,524 (1.0%)) City Gov State Gov (State and local government 19,735 (13.1%)) Federal Gov (Federal government 2,764 (1.8%))
What are the largest and smallest service system entities that have the problem of interconnected systems? Holistic Service Systems like nations, states, cities, and universities – are all system of systems dealing with flows, development, and governance. =============\\ Nations (~100) States/Provinces (~1000) Cities/Regions (~10,000) Educational Institutions (~100,000) Healthcare Institutions (~100,000) Other Enterprises (~10,000,000) Largest 2000 >50% GDP WW Families/Households (~1B) Persons (~10B) Balance/Improve Quality of Life, generation after generation GDP/Capita Quality of Service Customer Experience Quality of Jobs Employee Experience Quality of Investment-Opportunities Owner Experience Entrepreneurial Experience Sustainability GDP/Energy-Unit % Fossil % Renewable GDP/Mass-Unit % New Inputs % Recycled Inputs
Perhaps our homes and apartments are the smallest forms of holistic service systems – recently many Japanese families had to shelter in place So houses are a nice small scale HSS to examine…
Luxury hotels are a little bigger HSS…. I recomment the video about IBM Maximo and the Venetian Hotel to see hotels as mini-cities… Source: Building Luxury Hotels http://www.docstoc.com/docs/1604634/How-Much-Does-it-Cost-to-Build-a-Hotel IBM Case Study: St. Regis Hotel Shanghai Only Intelligent Building among 33 five stars hotels in the region Designed at 5.1% energy cost to revenue, now at 4.9% ... all other 5 star hotels average 8% 40% reduced energy cost / revenue vs. other 5 Star hotels
Cities are certainly holistic, and even towns, but perhaps they are too big… … cities are a system of systems with dense population, which creates challenges and opportunities and even the potential for many new types of careers… some statistics… Demographic change: During the first decade of the 21 st century, for the first time in history, more than 50% of the world’s population live in cities and the urban population of all nations continues to grow. For developed nations, the urban population has reached 70% and continues to increase. Challenges: The negative impacts of urbanization are well known from traffic congestion, housing, clean water, and energy shortages, pollution, waste disposal costs, pandemic risks, high school drop-out rates, tax burden, and environmental stress (noise, lights at night, carcinogens, toxins, etc.). Opportunity: Cities may be the key building blocks for a sustainable planet, where innovations can quickly scale to impact the lives of millions of people. While technology will not be a panacea, rapidly advancing technology will offer new opportunities for efficiencies. Cities provide opportunities to more rapidly deploy and scale up advanced technologies to benefit the people living in a region. Careers: As urban sustainability and innovation projects increase in quantity, attractive long-term career paths will open up for students properly prepared. Examples: More US cities are adopting climate change action plans. PlaNYC (released 2007) has a focus initiatives that apply technology to reduce waste and continuously improve a long-term sustainability and quality of life roadmap for the city. In October 2009, 30 new initiatives to grow New York City’s green economy were announced by the mayor’s office, including an urban technology innovation center to promote smart building best practices and develop NYC’s green tech workforce. Without putting too fine a point on it, most of the really important grand challenges in business and society relate to improving quality of life. Quality of life is a function of both quality of service from systems and quality of opportunities (or jobs) in systems. We have identified 13 systems that fit into three major categories – systems that focus on basic things people need, systems that focus on people’s activities and development, and systems that focus on governing. IBM’s Institute for Business Value has identified a $4 trillion challenge that can be addressed by using a system of systems approach.
However, to me the most interesting scale HSS to examine is the university – the university can be viewed as a mini-city… Furthermore there is evidence that appropriate local optimization contributes to global optimization… in terms of regional innovation ecosystems. Our perhaps the university connected to the city – is the most interesting – the regional innovation ecosystem… A growing number of cities are partnering with their local universities to address their grand challenge problems and to improve quality of life through investments in smarter systems and modern service… To understand how universities can respond and help cities, it is important to understand that universities are mini-cities (system of systems) – with their own operations and challenges. Cities are important building blocks in nations. Universities are important building blocks in cities.
Furthermore there is evidence that appropriate local optimization contributes to global optimization… in terms of regional innovation ecosystems and GDP growth… Talk about US being off the chart with 23% WW GDP and 30% of Top Ranked University in WW Top 500, China and other large population emerging markets rising rapidly, and US moving down towards the rest of the pack…. 2004-2009: Relative Change China (+3,+2), US (-3.5,-5) Graph based on data from Source: http://www.arwu.org/ARWUAnalysis2009.jsp Analysis: Antonio Fischetto and Giovanna Lella (URome, Italy) students visiting IBM Almaden Dynamic graphy based on Swiss students work: http://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html US is still “off the chart” – China projected to be “off the chart” in less than 10 years: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 30,3 % US % of WW GDP: 23,3 % Correlating Nation’s (2004) % of WW GDP to % of WW Top-Ranked Universities US is literally “off the chart” – but including US make high correlation even higher: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 33,865 % US % of WW GDP: 28,365 %
As universities become better partners with their host city, the innovations centers are strengthened and faculty and students get streams of data from different city systems from transportation, to water and waste, to healthcare, and energy systems…. Students learn to work on multidisciplinary teams and engage in understanding and creating proposed solutions to real-world problems that do not respect discipline boundaries – in this way students are better prepared to become good citizens in their future community, and to work on multidisciplinary teams when they graduate and get jobs… Urban Innovations Center are related to Urban Planning departments. However, Urban Planning tends to focus on land use and development, whereas Urban Innovations Centers are emerging with broader agendas…
Of course, this is a case of universities, their staff, faculty, and students acting locally. In a sense, the cities are a living lab for the universities as they establish relevant projects and some create urban innovation centers… to help measure the waste in exisitng systems, and try to create smarter systems with more capabilities including provisioning and delivering modern service. As the list of cities with major populations indicates, the opportunity to create innovations that impact the lives of millions of people is a real opportunity for universities that can establish the right partnership with their host city…
Universities connect information flows between other HSS, cities, states, nations Local optimizations can spread quickly to other HSS… Top 3000 cities: http://www.mongabay.com/cities_pop_02.htm Of course the opportunity is not just local – while local innovation impact the lives of staff, faculty, students and their families most directly – as cities partner more (twin city and sister city programs) and as universities also establish global collaborations with campuses in other regions of the world – the opportunity for better city-university partnerships is both local and global.
Investment in High Performance Computing and Research Competiveness in U.S. Academic Institutions Amy Apon*, Stan Ahalt`, Vijay Dantuluri`, Constantin Gurdgiev^, Moez Limayem, Linh Ngo*, Michael Stealey` *University of Arkansas, `RENCI/UNC-CH, ^IBM Work supported by the NSF through Grant #0946726 Journal of Information Technology, Volume 10, Issue 2 (accepted) http://www.jiti.net
In conclusion, a focus on smarter systems and modern service can help cities and universities (along with other industry and government partners) to invest together in sustainable innovations, that both reduces waste and expands capabilities. Perhaps someday we may even discover and equivalent of Moore’s Law for improving service systems… but until that time, I want to say… ================================ Moore’s Law is sustained by investments that improve computational systems according to a roadmap Can we create an investment roadmap that will improve service systems according to a roadmap? GIE (Globally Integrated Enterprise) uses a run-transform-innovate investment model for continuous improvement. Run = use existing knowledge, routine operations and maintenance Transform = use industry best practice knowledge to gain the benefits of known improvements Innovation = create new knowledge that allows improvements in both ends and means of service systems, and the resources they configure. As information about service systems doubles each year, and storage, processing, and bandwidth rise, making globally better decisions is an important opportunity to explore. FYI.... short history of transistors, integrated circuits, and data centers From transistors... 1. The transistor is considered by many to be the greatest technology invention of the 20th Century 2. While the concept of the transistor has been around since the 1920's (Canadian Physicist Julius Edgar Lilienfeld's 1925 Patent - devices that use physical phenomenon of field electronic emissions)... 3. Commercially available individual transistors that could be wired into circuits, invented and commercialized in 1947 & 1948 (Bell Labs Shockley Point Contact/Junction Transistor Theory 1947, Raytheon CK703 first commercially available 1948) To Integrated circuits... 4. However, it was not until the late 1950's and early 1960's that manufacturing process advances and commercial applications began using many of them in integrated circuits (TI, Bell Labs, etc.) - Sept 1958 the first integrated circuit (Jack Kilby TI) To Moore's law.... 5. By 1965 Gordon Moore's (Intel) paper stated the number of transistors on a chip would double about every two years (and exponential increase that has over 40 years of confirmation)... 6. The number of transistors manufactured each year (in 2009) is estimated at 10**18 - 3.9 x 10**6 transistors produced in 1957 (tenth anniversary of first transistor) - abut 10**18 transistors manufactured in 2009 (62th anniversary of first transistor) To data centers and &quot;electricity consumption&quot; .... 7. By 2005, data centers and server farms consume 0.5% of total worldwide electricity production (1% if cooling is included) - 2005 consumption equivalent of seventeen 1000 MW powerplants - electric consumption for data centers doubled from 2000 to 2005 Sources: http://semiconductormuseum.com/HistoricTransistorTimeline_Index.htm http://www.mentor.com/company/industry_keynotes/upload/rhines-globalpress-low-power.pdf http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/1748-9326/3/3/034008/erl8_3_034008.pdf?request-id=7cf4b6e5-498f-4ed4-bfc9-76eda96773ce
An example of continuous improvement from the use of technology in service systems to eliminate routine cognitive activities… Maglio, P., Srinivasan, S., Kreulen, J.T., Spohrer, J. (2006), Service systems, service scientists, SSME, and innovation. Communications of the ACM, 49(7), 81-85.
In conclusion, let’s consider the big picture – starting with the big bang…. and evolution of the earth, life on earth, human life, cities, universities, and the modern world… the evolution of observed hierarchical-complexity Many people still ask -- where is the science in the “Service Science?” One answer is that the science is hidden away in each of the component disciplines that study service systems, scientifically from their particular perspective… However, the big picture answer is “Ecology” - Ecology is the study of the abundance and distribution of entities (populations of things) in an environment… and how the entities interact with each other and their environment over successive generations of entities. The natural sciences (increasingly interdisciplinary) study the left side, using physics, chemistry, and biology Service science (originated as interdisciplinary) studies the right side, using history, economics, management, engineering, design, etc. Service science is still a young area, but from the growth of service in nations and businesses to the opportunity to apply service science to build a smarter planet, innovate service systems, and improve quality of life… it is an emerging science with bright future, and yes… it will continue to evolve : - ) Most people think of ecology in terms of living organisms, like plants and animals in a natural environment. However, the concept of ecology is more general and can be applied to entities as diverse as the populations of types of atoms in stars to the types of businesses in a national economy. I want to start my talk today on “service,” by first thinking broadly about ecologies of entities and their interactions. Eventually, we will get to human-made service system entities and human-made value-cocreation mechanisms… but for today, let’s really start at the very beginning – the big bang. About 14B years ago (indicated by the top of this purple bar), our universe started with a big bang. And through a process of known as fusion, stars turned populations of lighter atoms like hydrogen into heavier atoms like helium, and when stars of a certain size have done all the fusion they could, they would start slowing down, and eventually collapse rapidly, go nova, explode and send heavier atoms out into the universe, and eventually new stars form, and the process repeats over and over, creating stars with different populations of types of atoms, including heavier and heavier elments. So where did our sun and the earth come from…. Eventually after about ten billion years in the ecology of stars and atoms within stars, a very important star formed our sun (the yellow on the left) – and there were plenty of iron and nickel atoms swirling about as our sun formed, and began to burn 4.5B years ago, and the Earth formed about 4.3B years ago (the blue on the left)… In less than a billion years, the early earth evolved a remarkable ecology of complex molecules, including amino acids, and after less than a billion years, an ecology of bacteria took hold on early earth (the bright green on the left). The ecology of single cell bacteria flourished and after another billion years of interactions between the bacteria, the first multicellular organisms formed, and soon the ecology of sponges (the light blue on the left) and other multi-cellular entities began to spread out across the earth. Then after nearly two billion years, a type of division of labor between the cells in multicelluar organism lead to entities with cells acting as neurons in the first clams (the red on the left), and these neurons allowed the clams to open and close at the right time. After only 200 million years, tribolites appeared the first organisms with dense neural structures that could be called brains appeared (the black on the left), and then after about 300 million years, multicelluar organisms as complex as bees appeared (the olive on the left), and these were social insects, with division of labor among individuals in a population, with queens, drones, worker bees. So 200 million years ago, over 13B years after the big bang, the ecology of living entities is well established on planet earth, including social entities with brains and division of labor between individuals in a population…. Living in colonies that some have compared to human cities – where thousands of individuals live in close proximity and divide up the work that needs to be done to help the colony survive through many, many generations of individuals that come and go. Bees are still hear today. And their wingless cousins, called ants, have taken division of labor to incredible levels of complexity in ant cities in nearly every ecological niche on the planet, except under water. Now let’s look at the human ecology,and the formation of service system entities and value-cocreation mechanisms, a small portion of which is represented by the colored bar on the right. Recall bees appeared about 200 million years ago, a small but noticeable fraction of the age of the universe. Now take 1% of this little olive slice, which is 2 million years… that is how long people have been on earth, just one percent of this little olive slice here. What did people do in most of that 2million years? Basically, they spread out to every corner of the planet, and changed their skin color, eye colors, and hair colors, they spread out and became diverse with many different appearances and languages. It took most of that 200 millions just to spread out and cover most of the planet with people. When there was no more room to spread out the density of people in regions went up…. Now take 1% of that 2million years of human history which basically involved spreading out to every corner of the planet and becoming more diverse, recall ecology is the study of abundance and distribution and types of interactions, and 1% of that 2million years is just 20,000 years, and now divide that in half and that represents 10,000 years. The bar on the right represents 10,000 years or just 500 generations of people, if a generation is about 20 years. 500 generations ago humans built the first cities, prior to this there were no cities so the roughly 100M people spread out around the world 0% lived in cities, but about 500 generations ago the first cities formed, and division of labor and human-made service interactions based on division of labor took off – this is our human big bang – the explosion of division of labor in cities. Cities were the big bang for service scientists, because that is when the diversity of specialized roles and division of labor, which is at the heart of a knowledge-based service economy really begins to take off... So cities are the first really important type of human-made service system entities for service scientists to study, the people living in the city, the urban dwellers or citizens are both customers of and providers of service to each other, and division of labor is the first really important type of human-made value-cocreation mechanism for service scientists to study. (Note families are a very important type of service system entity, arguably more important than cities and certainly much older – however, family structure is more an evolution of primate family structure – and so in a sense is less of a human-made service system entity and more of an inherited service system entity… however, in the early cities often the trades were handed down father to son, and mother to daughter as early service businesses were often family run enterprises in which the children participated – so families specialized and the family names often reflect those specialization – for example, much later in England we get the family names like smith, mason, taylor, cooper, etc.) So to a service scientist, we are very excited about cities as important types of service system entities, and division of labor as an important type of value-cocreation mechanism, and all this really takes off in a big way just 500 generations ago when the world population was just getting to around 100M people spread out all around the world – so 10,000 years about about 1% of the worlds population was living in early versions of cities. It wasn’t until 1900 that 10% of the world’s then nearly 2B people lived in cities, and just this last decade that 50% of the worlds 6B people lived in cities, and by 2050 75% of the worlds projected 10B population will be urban dwellers. If there is a human-made service system that we need to design right, it is cities. It should be noted that the growth of what economist call the service sector, parallels almost exactly the growth of urban population size and increased division-of-labor opportunities that cities enable – so in a very real sense SERVICE GROWTH IS CITY GROWTH OR URBAN POPULATION GROWTH… in the last decade service jobs passed agriculture jobs for the first time, and urban dwellers passed rural dwellers for the first time. But I am starting to get ahead of myself, let’s look at how the human-made ecology of service system entities and value-cocreation mechanisms evolved over the last 10,000 years or 500 generations. The population of artifacts with written language on them takes off about 6000 years ago or about 300 generations ago (the yellow bar on the right). Expertise with symbols helped certain professions form – and the first computers were people writing and processing symbols - scribes were required, another division of labor – so the service of reading and writing, which had a limited market at first began to emerge to help keep better records. Scribes were in many ways the first computers, writing and reading back symbols – and could remember more and more accurately than anyone else. Written laws (blue on right) that govern human behavior in cities takes off about 5000 years ago – including laws about property rights, and punishment for crimes. Shortly there after, coins become quite common as the first type of standard monetary and weight measurement system (green on right). So legal and economic infrastructure for future service system entities come along about 5000 years ago, or 250 generations ago, with perhaps 2% of the population living in cities…. (historical footnote: Paper money notes don’t come along much until around about 1400 years ago – bank notes, so use of coins is significantly older than paper money, and paper money really required banks as service system entities before paper money could succeed.). About 50 generations ago, we get the emergence of another one of the great types of service system entities – namely universities (light blue line) – students are the customers, as well as the employers that need the students. Universities help feed the division of labor in cities that needed specialized skills, including the research discipline skills needed to deepen bodies of knowledge in particular discipline areas. The red line indicates the population of printing presses taking off in the world, and hence the number of books and newspapers. This was only about 500 years or 25 generations ago. Now university faculty and students could more easily get books, and cities began to expand as the world’s population grew, and more cities had universities as well. The black line indicates the beginning of the industrial revolution about 200 years ago, the sream engine, railroads, telegraph and proliferation of the next great type of service system entity – the manufacturing businesses - that benefited from standard parts, technological advances and scale economies, and required professional managers and engineers. About 100 years ago, universities began adding business schools to keep up with the demand for specialized business management skills, and many new engineering disciplines including civil engineering, mechanical engineering, chemical engineering, and electrical engineering, fuel specialization and division of labor. By 1900, just over 100 years ago, or 5 generations ago 10% of the worlds population, or about 200 million people were living in cities and many of those cities had universities or were starting universities. Again fueling specialization, division of labor, and the growth of service as a component of the economy measured by traditional economists. Finally, just 60 years ago or 3 generations ago, the electronic semiconductor transistor was developed (indicated by the olive colored line on the right), and the information age took off, and many information intensive service activities could now benefit from computers to improve technology (e.g., accounting) and many other areas. So to recap, cities are one of the oldest and most important type of service system and universities are an important and old type of service system, as well as many types of businesses. Service science is the study of service system entities, their abundance and distribution, and their interactions. Division of labor is one of the most important types of value cocreation mechanisms, and people often need specialized skills to fill roles in service systems. Service science like ecology studies entities and their interactions over successive generations. New types of human-made service system entities and value-cocreation mechanisms continue to form, like wikipedia and peer production systems. Age of Unvierse (Wikipedia) The age of the universe is the time elapsed between the Big Bang and the present day. Current theory and observations suggest that the universe is 13.75 ±0.17 billion years old.  Age of Sun The Sun was formed about 4.57 billion years ago when a hydrogen molecular cloud collapsed.  Solar formation is dated in two ways: the Sun's current main sequence age, determined using computer models of stellar evolution and nucleocosmochronology , is thought to be about 4.57 billion years.  This is in close accord with the radiometric date of the oldest Solar System material, at 4.567 billion years ago.   Age of Earth The age of the Earth is around 4.54 billion years (4.54 × 109 years ± 1%).    This age has been determined by radiometric age dating of meteorite material and is consistent with the ages of the oldest-known terrestrial and lunar samples . The Sun , in comparison, is about 4.57 billion years old , about 30 million years older. Age of Bacteria (Uni-cellular life) The ancestors of modern bacteria were single-celled microorganisms that were the first forms of life to develop on earth, about 4 billion years ago. For about 3 billion years, all organisms were microscopic, and bacteria and archaea were the dominant forms of life.   Although bacterial fossils exist, such as stromatolites , their lack of distinctive morphology prevents them from being used to examine the history of bacterial evolution, or to date the time of origin of a particular bacterial species. However, gene sequences can be used to reconstruct the bacterial phylogeny , and these studies indicate that bacteria diverged first from the archaeal/eukaryotic lineage.  The most recent common ancestor of bacteria and archaea was probably a hyperthermophile that lived about 2.5 billion–3.2 billion years ago.   Cities (Wikipedia) Early cities developed in a number of regions of the ancient world. Mesopotamia can claim the earliest cities, particularly Eridu, Uruk, and Ur. After Mesopotamia, this culture arose in Syria and Anatolia, as shown by the city of Çatalhöyük (7500-5700BC). Writing (Wikipedia) Writing is an extension of human language across time and space. Writing most likely began as a consequence of political expansion in ancient cultures, which needed reliable means for transmitting information, maintaining financial accounts, keeping historical records, and similar activities. Around the 4th millennium BC, the complexity of trade and administration outgrew the power of memory, and writing became a more dependable method of recording and presenting transactions in a permanent form  . In both Mesoamerica and Ancient Egypt writing may have evolved through calendrics and a political necessity for recording historical and environmental events. Written Law (Wikipedia) The history of law is closely connected to the development of civilization . Ancient Egyptian law, dating as far back as 3000 BC, contained a civil code that was probably broken into twelve books. It was based on the concept of Ma'at , characterised by tradition, rhetorical speech, social equality and impartiality.   By the 22nd century BC, the ancient Sumerian ruler Ur- Nammu had formulated the first law code , which consisted of casuistic statements (&quot;if ... then ...&quot;). Around 1760 BC, King Hammurabi further developed Babylonian law , by codifying and inscribing it in stone. Hammurabi placed several copies of his law code throughout the kingdom of Babylon as stelae , for the entire public to see; this became known as the Codex Hammurabi . The most intact copy of these stelae was discovered in the 19th century by British Assyriologists, and has since been fully transliterated and translated into various languages, including English, German, and French.  Money (Wikipedia) Many cultures around the world eventually developed the use of commodity money . The shekel was originally both a unit of currency and a unit of weight.  . The first usage of the term came from Mesopotamia circa 3000 BC. Societies in the Americas, Asia, Africa and Australia used shell money – usually, the shell of the money cowry ( Cypraea moneta ) were used. According to Herodotus , and most modern scholars, the Lydians were the first people to introduce the use of gold and silver coin .  It is thought that these first stamped coins were minted around 650–600 BC.  Universities (Wikipedia) Prior to their formal establishment, many medieval universities were run for hundreds of years as Christian cathedral schools or monastic schools ( Scholae monasticae ), in which monks and nuns taught classes; evidence of these immediate forerunners of the later university at many places dates back to the 6th century AD.  The first universities were the University of Bologna (1088), the University of Paris (c. 1150, later associated with the Sorbonne ), the University of Oxford (1167), the University of Palencia (1208), the University of Cambridge (1209), the University of Salamanca (1218), the University of Montpellier (1220), the University of Padua (1222), the University of Naples Federico II (1224), the University of Toulouse (1229).   Printing and Books (Wikipedia) Johannes Gutenberg's work on the printing press began in approximately 1436 when he partnered with Andreas Dritzehn—a man he had previously instructed in gem-cutting—and Andreas Heilmann, owner of a paper mill.  However, it was not until a 1439 lawsuit against Gutenberg that an official record exists; witnesses' testimony discussed Gutenberg's types, an inventory of metals (including lead), and his type molds. 
Question: How can we maintain a high quality of life when population is increasing, flat, decreasing? Understand “service system scaling” will be a key part of the answer… Source of UN chart is Wikipedia “World Population” World population from 1800 to 2100, based on UN 2004 projections (red, orange, green) and US Census Bureau historical estimates (black). The human population “carrying capacity” of planet Earth depends on the ecology of service systems we can collectively create and maintain…. Especially important building blocks to get right are cities and universities – we call these tightly-coupled holistic service systems, and argue for their importance as a topic of research in the emerging area known as service science… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrying_capacity The carrying capacity of a biological species in an environment is the population size of the species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water and other necessities available in the environment. For the human population, more complex variables such as sanitation and medical care are sometimes considered as part of the necessary establishment. As population density increases, birth rate often decreases and death rate typically increases. Permission to re-distribute granted by Jim Spohrer – please request via email (email@example.com)
Permission to re-distribute granted by Jim Spohrer – please request via email (firstname.lastname@example.org) This talk provided a concise introduction to SSME+D evolving, and applying Service Science to build a Smarter Planet… Reference content from this presentation as: Spohrer, JC (2010) Presentation: SSME+D (for Design) Evolving: Update on Service Science Progress & Directions. Event. Place. Date. Permission to redistribute granted upon request to email@example.com But I want to end by sharing some relevant quotes… The first you may have seen on TV or heard on the radio – it is from IBM – Instrumented, Interconnected, Intellient – Let’s build a smarter planet (more on this one shortly) Second, If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities, (as we will see cities turn out to be ideal building blocks to get right for a number of reasons) And if we focus on cities, then the quote from the Foundation Metropolitan paints the right picture, cities learning from cities learning from cities… The next is probably the best known quote in the group “think global, act local” (we will revisit this important thought) Since all the major cities of the world have one or more universities, the next quote is of interest “the future is born in universities” And two more well known quotes about the future – the best way to predict the future is to build it, and the future is already here… it is just not evenly distributed. The next quote is an important one for discipline specialists at universities to keep in mind – real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries (so be on guard for myopic solutions that appear too good to be true, they often are!)… Because if we are not careful, today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions… And since we cannot anticipate all risks or quickly resolve them once we notice them, we should probably never forget what HG Wells said - that history is a race between education and catastrophe… In a world of accelerating change, this last statement also serves as a reminder that the pace of real innovation in education is a good target for study in terms of smarter systems and modern service…
The mission of the Urban Service Systems Sustainability and Innovation Centers will be to increase understanding in three areas that can have a direct impact on quality of life in cities…. Holistic modeling, STEM Education Pipeline, and Entrepreneurship & Job Creation…. Area of Future Growth: Holistic Modeling and Analytics for Cities (Urban Service System Sustainability and Innovation Centers) Improve Input for this area: STEM (Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics) Education Pipeline, and Improve Output for this area: Jobs & Entrepreneurship Regarding quality of living and quality of infrastructure, Boston rated #33 in both rankings for 2009... http://www.mercer.com/qualityoflivingpr#Top_50_cities:_Quality_of_living What would it take to get Boston into the #1 position in both rankings? Also, of interest - ranking by population... http://www.mongabay.com/cities_pop_01.htm For truly large cities, Japan seems to do best in quality of living and quality of infrastructure.... Mercer evaluates local living conditions in all the 420 cities it surveys worldwide. Living conditions are analysed according to 39 factors, grouped in 10 categories: Political and social environment (political stability, crime, law enforcement, etc) Economic environment (currency exchange regulations, banking services, etc) Socio-cultural environment (censorship, limitations on personal freedom, etc) Health and sanitation (medical supplies and services, infectious diseases, sewage, waste disposal, air pollution, etc) Schools and education (standard and availability of international schools, etc) Public services and transportation (electricity, water, public transport, traffic congestion, etc) Recreation (restaurants, theatres, cinemas, sports and leisure, etc) Consumer goods (availability of food/daily consumption items, cars, etc) Housing (housing, household appliances, furniture, maintenance services, etc) Natural environment (climate, record of natural disasters)
Example mission: Your city’s water usage has increased at twice the rate of population growth, and supplies are becoming tested (and possibly polluted by human activity); your municipality is losing as much as 40% of its water supply through leaky infrastructure; and your energy costs are steadily increasing. You must institute a Water Management System so you have accurate real-time data to make decisions on delivering the highest water quality in most economical way. http://www-01.ibm.com/software/solutions/soa/innov8/cityone/index.html
This world map shows the population growth per hour projected through 2015 in some of the fastest growing cities with populations over one million people. Source: Urban Age
Universities are often in the top ten list for largest employers of cities. City and county employees are usually at the very top of the list. The economic impact of universities can be quite substantial: http://www.edu-impact.com / For example, Harvard’s economic impact is substantial for Boston area and Massachusetts… $4.8B and 44,000 jobs. &quot;Putting it all together When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs. Statewide, Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for more than $5.3 billion in economic activity and more than 48,500 jobs. And if we add in people who are employed by companies with roots at Harvard (companies started by Harvard faculty members, or started with the goal of commercializing new technologies first developed at the University, examples of which are discussed below) then we can estimate that Harvard accounts, directly or indirectly, for more than 51,500 jobs in the Boston area, and more than 56,000 throughout the Commonwealth.&quot;
The lesson of history -- technologies underlie improved value creation mechanisms when combined with the right societal rules/incentives. Nonzero – summarizes all of human history, and is about win-win interactions (what “service science” calls value-cocreation mechanisms) Morals and markets – summarizes all of human history, and is about balancing what is good for individuals with what is good for the collective. Paul Romer’s Charter Cities video – summarizes the consequences of bad rules in recent history (Africa, North Korea, Haiti, etc.), and is about the need for the right rules and incentives, including rules to change rules (cities are the right size to experiment – Hong Kong, Singapore, etc.).
From Steve Kwan, SJSU THE OUTLOOK JANUARY 10, 2011 Nations Seek Success Beyond GDP By MARK WHITEHOUSE Money isn't everything. But in measuring the success of nations, it isn't easy to find a substitute. After a session on creating a national success indicator at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association on Friday, Carol Graham, fellow at the Brookings Institution, summed up the situation thus: &quot;It's like a new science. There's still a lot of work to be done.“ University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School—Daniel Sacks, Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers—found that a given percentage increase in GDP per person tends to coincide with a similar increase in reported well-being. in the 1970s, University of Pennsylvania economist Richard Easterlin found no evidence of a link between countries' income—as measured by GDP per person—and peoples' reported levels of happiness. &quot;There is more to life than GDP, but it will be hard to come up with a single measure to replace it and we are not sure that a single measure is the answer,&quot; said Paul Allin, director of the Measuring National Well-Being Project at the U.K.'s Office of National Statistics. In November, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced plans to build measures of national well-being that would take into account factors such as peoples' life satisfaction, following a similar effort by French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Netherlands's Life Situation Index Angus Deaton, an economist at Princeton University
High school drop out rates in cities can be high… by increasing focus on system of systems in all grade levels, especially STEM discussions of how to study and then propose solutions to local community challenges – there is evidence that exemplar programs increase the diversity and desire of students to go onto college in STEM areas, and then go on to jobs that use these skills to improve systems…. A number of NAE studies as well as NMC study on challenge-based learning provide encouraging information – also IBM has a Smater Learning white paper which confirms some of these findings. http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ideasfromibm/us/smartplanet/topics/educationtechnology/20090601/index1.shtml See Challenge-Based Learning: http://www.nmc.org/news/nmc/nmc-study-confirms-effectiveness-challenge-based-learning Smarter Planet University Jam Final report at: https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/university/smartplanet_jam/ Awards given to top participants, e.g., faculty and students… Prizes as Incentives for Public-Private Partnerships In recent years, there has been a renaissance in “incentive prizes” – which reward contestants for achieving a specific future goal. http://blog.ostp.gov/2009/06/17/prizes-as-incentives-for-public-private-partnerships/comment-page-2/ crowd-sourcing the world.... see http:// www.itsa.org /challenge/ WE are smarter than ME, i.e. and a diversified, independent, decentralized community can outperform even the greatest of experts. This challenge is open to entrepreneurs, commuters, transportation experts, researchers, universities, students, scholars, scientists and citizens from all fields around the globe. All ideas will be reviewed discussed and rated by an open global community, to determine the best and most creative ideas to effectively solve the consequences of traffic congestion. The winner will be announced during the 16th World Congress on Intelligent Transportation Systems in Stockholm, Sweden, September 21 - 25, 2009, and will receive a cash a of $50,000 USD , as well as development and implementation support to pursue turning the ideas into real-world solutions. Ideas will be reviewed, discussed and rated by an open global community. The public will determine the best and most creative ideas to effectively solve the consequences of traffic congestion. The winner will be chosen by the community. For the next 60 days the community (which anyone can join ) will review and rate all submissions on 5 criteria. On August 1st, the top 9 solutions will be announced. These 9 will then submit more information including a slideshow, a video and founder bios. Based on this information, the participating community members can decide who they each want to back. Each member allocates points they have earned through what is known as a predictive market. The overall winner is the solution that receives the most backing. This challenge truly is: for the people, by the people, and decided by the people.
http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/ And the NAE’s Engineering Grand Challenge problems include – making solar energy economical – which fits into category 4. Smarter Energy… there are at least two NAE grand challenges that related to 10. Smarter Education systems – Advance personalized learning and Engineer the tools of scientific discovery… one might also want to include enhance virtual reality and reverse engineer the brain – and I included those under 5. Smarter Information systems… the point is that solving any one of these 14 NAE grand challenge problems has the potential to have significant impact on one or more of the 13 systems that we all depend on every day for quality of life… And so now would be a good time to say a little bit more about the component measurements and the challenges of defining quality of life…
Where are the opportunities? Everywhere! IBM 2009 Annual Report – survey of smarter planet projects around the world…. But how do we involve universities more? How do we weave a “total solution” that includes universities in smarter city projects? What is the role of the university in creating a smarter city? In the continuous improvement of quality of life in cities? And aren’t universities really mini-cities within cities? … and on this Map of the World, in the 2009 IBM Annual report one can see a sampling of IBM Smarter Planet engagements around the world… working to improve the complete spectrum of system of systems… often with a focus on one system in one city… such as smarter energy in venezula or smarter medical research for healthcare in the US… some of these engagements include a partnership between the cities and universities – but much more opportunity exists… to help focus cities and universities, among others, on these opportunities… IBM and other organizations have begun to identify grand challenge problems…. For example, if you look at the IBM Smarter Planet website….
Both individual people and institutions/organizations are learning… this is the vision of the educational continuum… http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/education-for-a-smarter-planet.html
A person is the atomic service system – that can consume and produce services. -------------------- People have year over year improvement via learning. Also, for better or worse, people seem to have increasing division of labor and multitasking. A key attribute of people is that they have a model of the world – a “world model” that is updated as they learn new skills and facts, and gain experience. Modern Mobile Worker in car with cell phone and PDA http://www.omniwav.com/images/person_car_pda.gif First Mobile Phone http://www.bellsystemmemorial.com/oldphotos_1.html Multitasking http://www.crito.uci.edu/consortium/iab/2006-06/markSummary.pdf
Next, after a person, a family is a fundamental service system unity, with internal division of labor, technology, value propositions, and shared information -------------- I like the quote from the IBM GIO 1.0 – the quote is quite informative --- as one thinks about the modern evolution of service systems, and how much knowledge work we do at home these days. Modern Family http://www.sharpshomeoffice.co.uk/home/assets/homePic.jpg 50’s Family http://www.civilization.ca/hist/rocket/rokt541e.html
The hospital is a service system that has rapidly increased in intelligence in the last two hundred years. ------------------------ Telesurgery http://or2020.org/OR2020_REPORT/Photographs/Figure%204%20%20telesurgery%20DSC_1740%20cropped%20report.jpg 20 th Century http://www.mantenostatehospital.com/sitegraphics/abackdrop4.jpg Middle Ages http://content.answers.com/main/content/wp/en-commons/thumb/3/3b/180px-Physician_in_hospital_sickroom_printed_1682.jpg
Universities are an especially important service system because they support division of labor, accumulation of shared information, and are a hot bed of entrepreneurial activity. ------------------- The universities have also rapidly increased in intelligence in the last two hundred years, but primarily through division of labor – greater depth in individual silo-ed disciplines. Each discipline focuses on an abstracted portion of a service system. Service science works to integrate across disciplines. Modern lecture hall http://www.healthsciences.okstate.edu/images/album2/images/inside_lecturehall.jpg Old Lecture http://eee.uci.edu/clients/bjbecker/PlaguesandPeople/medtexttitlea.jpg
Cities (and towns) coevolved with the rise of agriculture, and were the first big advance over nomadic tribes of humans as service systems. ---------------- City – Peoria Police Department http://www.peoriapd.com/people.jpg Old City – NY Horsecart http://www.peterpappas.com/docs/lesson12/images/nychorsecartfull.jpg
In the 1800’s, the cost reduction in transportation (railroads) and communication (telegraph) helped to give rise to modern business service systems. --------------- Businesses (and their components which are also service systems) are the type of service system of most interest to IBM. The CBM (Component Business Model) tool and method has been used to model several dozen industries and the key performance indicators (KPI) measures that are used to track their improvement and learning rates. Owens Cornings WW Corporate Headquarters http://www.dachlux.com.pl/producenci/owens/pink.jpg Old Business – glass factory - postcard http://www.jenningsco.org/zGlass%20Factory--%20postcard.jpg COMPANY REVENUES $ millions 1996FOREIGN ASSETS 1995 $ billionsTOTAL ASSETS 1995 General Motors Corporation168,36954.1228.0Ford Motor Company146,99169.2238.5Mitsui & Co., Ltd.144,94316.668.5Mitsubishi Corporation140,204-79.3Itochu Corporation135,54215.172.0Royal Dutch/Shell Group128,17479.7117.6Marubeni Corporation124,02713.024.4Exxon Corporation119,43466.791.3Sumitomo Corporation119,28112.050.7Toyota Motor Corporation108,70236.0118.2
IBM is very interested in call centers – they are great examples of knowledge management in services systems, and must rapidly adapt and learn, as the environment of calls evolves. -------------------- India Call Center http://www.rotten.com/library/culture/indian-call-centers/cs_indians.jpg Overseas Switchboard http://www.privateline.com/TelephoneHistory3/overseasswitchboard.jpg
IBM is very interested in data centers as service systems as well. Data centers provide a platform for new information services, Google, Yahoo, e-Bay, Amazon, Second Life, etc. -------------------- Data Center http://www.sanitytech.net/images/datacenter.jpg Library of Alexandria http://www.bankstreetbooks.com/images/bankstreet/0395758327c.jpg
Nations arose from aggregation of city states. The Roman Empire helped reduce transportation and communication costs. ---------------------- Increasingly, IBM is being asked to help shape national innovation policies. Nations like IBM enjoy a scale advantage, so want to understand how to scale service systems and learning curves associated with service systems. Shared Information – Measures – Prices – Communication, Transportation, and Energy Costs World War I http://www.wall-maps.com/Classroom/HISTORY/World/TheNationsAtWar1915.gif Lists: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0778562.html The Top Ten: Most Livable States - November 6 - 13 Most Livable States, 2006 Rank State 1. New Hampshire 2. Minnesota 3. Iowa 4. ... The Top Ten: Least Livable States - November 6 - 13 Least Livable States, 2006 Rank State 1. Louisiana 2. Mississippi 3. Arkansas 4. ... The Top Ten: Most Corrupt Countries - November 6 - 13 Most Corrupt Countries, 2006 Rank Country 1. Haiti 2. Myanmar Iraq Guinea 5. Sudan ... The Top Ten: Least Corrupt Countries - November 6 - 13 Least Corrupt Countries, 2006 Rank Country 1. Finland Iceland New Zealand 4. ... The Human Development Index (HDI), published annually by the UN, ranks nations according to their citizens' quality of life rather than strictly by a nation's traditional economic figures. Most livable 2005: Norway, Iceland, Australia, Luxembourg, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland, Ireland, Belgium, United States, Japan, Netherlands, Finland, Denmark, United Kingdoms, France, Austria, Italy, New Zealand, Germany GDP: United States, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, China, Spain, Canada, India, South Korea, Mexico, Australia, Brazil, Russia, Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, Sweden, Turkey
What happens when you take some of the nicotine out of cigarettes? People inhale more deeply to get the same amount of nicotine…
Q. How do you create more lasting solutions? A. Complex systems defy easy fixes. Oftentimes the solutions we think will work only create more problems in the long run. Finding long term solutions requires understanding the structure of the system that you are trying to improve.
Roughgarden, Tim (2005) Selfish Routing and the Price of Anarchy. MIT Press. Cambridge, MA. “ Pigou’s example demonstrates a well known but important principle: selfish behavior need not produce a socially optimal outcome… Braess’s Paradox will be a persistent thorn in our side: with selfish routing, network improvements can degrade network performance.” (Pp. 5-6)
So what would a service scientist actually do? Service scientist would own the body of knowledge around service system problem solving, all the weak and strong methods. First, service scientists identify a service system that needs improvement. Next, service scientists identify the stakeholders their concerns and perceived opportunities. Finally, service scientists envision augmentations (additional new service systems) or reconfigurations (of old service systems components) that best address all problems and opportunities. Especially important is the identification of year-over-year improvement trajectories and incentives to change (ROI, leadership, laws). The strongest incentive for a service scientist would be to get a share of the year-over-year value created from their innovation (augmentations and reconfigurations, or invention of new service systems), either in capital or reputation.
Wikipedia comparative advantage…
This is a variation of James March’s work. He is the father of organization theory, and worked with Herb Simon in the 1950’s… March, J.G. (1991) Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organizatinal Science. 2(1).71-87. Every entity -- individual, enterprise (business and non-profit), city/region and nation that can change – makes a resource allocation decision…. Run is least costly and least risky if the environment is not changing much (change is gaining experience – practice effects and learning curves, anomaly detections) Transform is costly and risky, but may have benefits once the change is complete (adopting a new best practice) Innovate may be costly and risky, but also may create the greatest value, if the practices can be monetized if others adopt them (e.g., patents, consulting practices, etc.) FYI.... short history of transistors, integrated circuits, and data centers From transistors... 1. The transistor is considered by many to be the greatest technology invention of the 20th Century 2. While the concept of the transistor has been around since the 1920's (Canadian Physicist Julius Edgar Lilienfeld's 1925 Patent - devices that use physical phenomenon of field electronic emissions)... 3. Commercially available individual transistors that could be wired into circuits, invented and commercialized in 1947 & 1948 (Bell Labs Shockley Point Contact/Junction Transistor Theory 1947, Raytheon CK703 first commercially available 1948) To Integrated circuits... 4. However, it was not until the late 1950's and early 1960's that manufacturing process advances and commercial applications began using many of them in integrated circuits (TI, Bell Labs, etc.) - Sept 1958 the first integrated circuit (Jack Kilby TI) To Moore's law.... 5. By 1965 Gordon Moore's (Intel) paper stated the number of transistors on a chip would double about every two years (and exponential increase that has over 40 years of confirmation)... 6. The number of transistors manufactured each year (in 2009) is estimated at 10**18 - 3.9 x 10**6 transistors produced in 1957 (tenth anniversary of first transistor) - abut 10**18 transistors manufactured in 2009 (62th anniversary of first transistor) To data centers and &quot;electricity consumption&quot; .... 7. By 2005, data centers and server farms consume 0.5% of total worldwide electricity production (1% if cooling is included) - 2005 consumption equivalent of seventeen 1000 MW powerplants - electric consumption for data centers doubled from 2000 to 2005 Sources: http://semiconductormuseum.com/HistoricTransistorTimeline_Index.htm http://www.mentor.com/company/industry_keynotes/upload/rhines-globalpress-low-power.pdf http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/1748-9326/3/3/034008/erl8_3_034008.pdf?request-id=7cf4b6e5-498f-4ed4-bfc9-76eda96773ce
Teaching Service Science – start with who is the audience? Graduate students, from engineering, business, social sciences, information school, etc? Undergraduate students majoring in engineering, business, social sciences, information science, etc.? Business practitioners in manufacturing businesses, traditional service businesses, non-profits, government agencies? Service Science Reading List – Many textbooks and reference-textbooks included: http://www.cob.sjsu.edu/ssme/refmenu.asp
Service Science: Progress & Directions Working Together to Build a Smarter Planet Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer [email_address] Innovation Champion and Director, IBM University Programs WW IJCSS Taipei, Taiwan, May 26th, 2011
IBM operates in 170 countries around the globe IBM has 425,000 employees worldwide
Revenue - $ 99.9B
Net Income - $ 14.8B
EPS - $ 11.52
Net Cash - $11.7B
21% of IBM’s revenue in growth market countries; growing at 13% in late 2010 Number 1 in patent generation for 18 consecutive years ; 5,896 US patents awarded in 2010 More than 40% of IBM’s workforce conducts business away from an office 5 Nobel Laureates 9 time winner of the President’s National Medal of Technology & Innovation - latest award for Blue Gene Supercomputer “ Let’s Build a Smarter Planet" The Smartest Machine On Earth 100 Years of Business & Innovation
Stimulus : In general, local optimization does not equal global optimizations
Response: Holistic Service Systems & Entity Architecture (SOA)
Quality of Life: Our growing dependence on networks of interconnected product-service systems
Local optimization does not equal global optimization
Local problems can cascade into global significance
Global competition for talent (“people vote with feet”)
Better Tools : CAD Tool+ for Regional Innovation Ecosystems
How to visualize Service Science? Systems & Discipline Knowledge
What kind of tool(s)? Global, Real-time, CAD
Where is the “Real Science”? Evolution of hierarchical complexity
42% 64 33 3 1.4 Germany 37% 26 11 63 2.1 Bangladesh 19% 20 10 70 1.6 Nigeria 45% 67 28 5 2.2 Japan 64% 69 21 10 2.4 Russia 61% 66 14 20 3.0 Brazil 34% 39 16 45 3.5 Indonesia 23% 76 23 1 5.1 U.S. 35% 23 17 60 14.4 India 142% 29 22 49 25.7 China 40yr Service Growth S % G % A % Labor % WW Nation World’s Large Labor Forces A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Service 2010 2010 CIA Handbook, International Labor Organization Note: Pakistan, Vietnam, and Mexico now larger LF than Germany US shift to service jobs (A) Agriculture: Value from harvesting nature (G) Goods: Value from making products (S) Service: Value from IT augmented workers in smarter systems that create benefits for customers and sustainably improve quality of life. Service Growth: The World
Rethinking “Product-Service Systems” F B Service System Entity Product-Service-System B F SSE B F SSE B F SSE B F SSE B F SSE B F SSE B F SSE B F SSE B F SSE B F SSE B F F F B B Service Business Product Business Front-Stage Marketing/Customer Focus Back-Stage Operations/Provider Focus Based on Levitt, T (1972) Production-line approach to service. HBR. e.g., IBM e.g., Citibank “ Everybody is in service... Something is wrong… The industrial world has changed faster than our taxonomies.”.
High Tech Car Factory as a Product-Service System http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nd5WGLWNllA
Service Growth: IBM B2B Service Projects: IT (data center, call centers) & business process outsourcing/reengineering, systems integration, organizational change, etc. What do IBM Service Professionals Do? Run things on behalf of customers, help Transform customers to adopt best practices, and Innovate with customers. Revenue Growth by Segment Also, see Chesbrough’s “Real Men Have Fabs” article – service strategy for manufacturers
Stakeholder Priorities Education Research Business Government Service Systems Customer-provider interactions that enable value cocreation Dynamic configurations of resources: people, technologies, organisations and information Increasing scale, complexity and connectedness of service systems B2B, B2C, C2C, B2G, G2C, G2G service networks Service Science To discover the underlying principles of complex service systems Systematically create, scale and improve systems Foundations laid by existing disciplines Progress in academic studies and practical tools Gaps in knowledge and skills Develop programmes & qualifications Service Innovation Growth in service GDP and jobs Service quality & productivity Environmental friendly & sustainable Urbanisation & aging population Globalisation & technology drivers Opportunities for businesses, governments and individuals Skills & Mindset Knowledge & Tools Employment & Collaboration Policies & Investment Develop and improve service innovation roadmaps, leading to a doubling of investment in service education and research by 2015 Encourage an interdisciplinary approach The white paper offers a starting point to - Priorities: Succeeding through Service Innovation - A Framework for Progress ( http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/ssme/ ) Source: Workshop and Global Survey of Service Research Leaders (IfM & IBM 2008) Glossary of definitions, history and outlook of service research, global trends, and ongoing debate 1. Emerging demand 2. Define the domain 3. Vision and gaps 4. Bridge the gaps 5. Call for actions
UK Royal Society Report (2009) http://royalsociety.org/Hidden-wealth-The-contribution-of-science-to-service-sector-innovation/
Priorities: Research Framework for the Science of Service (2010) Source: Global Survey of Service Research Leaders (Ostrom et al 2010) Pervasive Force: Leveraging Technology to Advance Service Strategy Priorities Execution Priorities Fostering Service Infusion and Growth Improving Well-Being through Transformative Service Creating and Maintaining a Service Culture Stimulating Service Innovation Enhancing Service Design Optimizing Service Networks and Value Chains Effectively Branding and Selling Services Enhancing the Service Experience through Cocreation Measuring and Optimizing the Value of Service Development Priorities
Service Dominant Logic (SDL): Beneficial Worldview
Service is the application of competences for the benefit of another entity
Service is exchanged for service
Value is always co-created
Goods are one appliance for delivery of outcomes
All economies are service economies
All businesses are service businesses
Vargo, S. L. & Lusch, R. F. (2004). Evolving to a new dominant logic for marketing. Journal of Marketing, 68 , 1 – 17. “ People do not really want a ¾” drill, they really want a ¾” hole.” - Leavitt Resource Integrator/Beneficiary (“Firm”) Resource Integrator/Beneficiary (“Customer”) Value Co-creation Value Configuration Density
Service system entities configure four types of resources
First foundational premise of service science:
Service system entities dynamically configure four types of resources
Resources are the building blocks of entity architectures
Named resources are:
Physicist resolve disputes
Named resources have:
Judges resolve disputes
Spohrer, J & Maglio, P. P. (2009) Service Science: Toward a Smarter Planet. In Introduction to Service Engineering. Editors Karwowski & Salvendy. Wiley. Hoboken, NJ. . Formal service systems can contract Informal service systems can promise/commit Trends & Countertrends (Evolve and Balance): Informal <> Formal Social <> Economic Political <> Legal Routine Cognitive Labor <> Information Technology Routine Physical Labor <> Mechanical Technology Transportation (Atoms) <> Communication (Bits) Qualitative (Tacit) <> Quantitative (Explicit) Physical Not-Physical Rights No-Rights 2. Technology/ Environment 4.. Shared Information 1. People 3. Organizations
Service system entities calculate value from multiple stakeholder perspectives
Second foundational premise of service science
Service system entities calculate value from multiple stakeholder perspectives
Value propositions are the building blocks of service networks
A value propositions can be viewed as a request from one service system to another to run an algorithm (the value proposition) from the perspectives of multiple stakeholders according to culturally determined value principles.
The four primary stakeholder perspectives are: customer, provider, authority, and competitor
Spohrer, J & Maglio, P. P. (2009) Service Science: Toward a Smarter Planet. In Introduction to Service Engineering. Editors Karwowski & Salvendy. Wiley. Hoboken, NJ. . Value propositions coordinate & motivate resource access Model of competitor: Does it put us ahead? Can we stay ahead? Does it differentiate us from the competition? Will we? (invest to make it so) Strategic Sustainable Innovation (Market share) 4.Competitor (Substitute) Model of authority: Is it legal? Does it compromise our integrity in any way? Does it create a moral hazard? May we? (offer and deliver it) Regulated Compliance (Taxes and Fines) 3.Authority Model of self: Does it play to our strengths? Can we deliver it profitably to customers? Can we continue to improve? Can we? (deliver it) Cost Plus Productivity (Profit) 2.Provider Model of customer: Do customers want it? Is there a market? How large? Growth rate? Should we? (offer it) Value Based Quality (Revenue) 1.Customer Value Proposition Reasoning Basic Questions Pricing Decision Measure Impacted Stakeholder Perspective (the players)
Service system entities reconfigure access rights to resources by mutually agreed to value propositions
Third foundational premise of service science
Service system entities reconfigure access rights to resources by mutually agreed to value propositions
Access rights are the building blocks of the service ecology (culture and information)
Access to resources that are owned outright (i.e., property)
Access to resource that are leased/contracted for (i.e., rental car, home ownership via mortgage, insurance policies, etc.)
Shared access (i.e., roads, web information, air, etc.)
Privileged access (i.e., personal thoughts, inalienable kinship relationships, etc.)
service = value-cocreation B2B B2C B2G G2C G2B G2G C2C C2B C2G *** provider resources Owned Outright Leased/Contract Shared Access Privileged Access customer resources Owned Outright Leased/Contract Shared Access Privileged Access OO SA PA LC OO LC SA PA S A P C Competitor Provider Customer Authority value-proposition change-experience dynamic-configurations (substitute) time
Service system entities interact to create ten types of outcomes
Service system entities learn to systematically exploit info & tech March, J.G. (1991) Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organizational Science. 2(1).71-87. Sanford, L.S. (2006) Let go to grow: Escaping the commodity trap. Prentice Hall. New York, NY. L Learning Systems (“Choice & Change”) Exploitation (James March) Exploration (James March) Run/Practice-Reduce (IBM) Transform/Follow (IBM) Innovate/Lead (IBM) Operations Costs Maintenance Costs Incidence Planning & Response Costs (Insure) Incremental Radical Super-Radical Internal External Interactions “ To be the best, learn from the rest” “ Double monetize, internal win and ‘sell’ to external” “ Try to operate inside the comfort zone”
Routine Manual and Routine Cognitive Jobs Go Away.. Levy, F, & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Princeton University Press. Based on U.S. Department of Labor’ Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) Expert Thinking (deep) Complex Communication (broad) Routine Manual Non-routine Manual Routine Cognitive Increasing usage of job descriptive terms
Service system entities are physical-symbol systems
Service is value cocreation.
Service system entities reason about value.
Value cocreation is a kind of joint activity.
Joint activity depends on communication and grounding.
Reasoning about value and communication are (often) effective symbolic processes.
Summary Spohrer, J & Maglio, P. P. (2009) Service Science: Toward a Smarter Planet. In Introduction to Service Engineering. Editors Karwowski & Salvendy. Wiley. Hoboken, NJ. . 5. Exploit information & technology 6. Physical-Symbol Systems Physical Not-Physical Rights No-Rights 2. Technology 4.. Shared Information 1. People 3. Organizations 1. Dynamically configure resources Model of competitor: Does it put us ahead? Will we? Strategic Sustainable Innovation 4.Competitor Model of authority: Is it legal? May we? Regulated Compliance 3.Authority Model of self: Does it play to our strengths? Can we? Cost Plus Productivity 2.Provider Model of customer: Do customers want it? Should we? Value Based Quality 1.Customer Reasoning Questions Pricing Measure Impacted Stakeholder Perspective 2. Value from stakeholder perspectives S A P C 3. Reconfigure access rights 4. Ten types of outcomes (ISPAR)
In general, Local Optimization does not equal Global Optimization
In nested, networked, complex human systems, careless local optimizations can degrade overall performance. However, perhaps for some entity architectures and rules the odds of global optimization from appropriate local optimizations can be increased. In this respect, are some entity architectures (Є N ) better than others?
2. In general, P RW ≠ P SD or P SS or P SC
In general, A Real-World Problem does not equal a Single Discipline, System, or Culture Problem
In nested, networked, complex human systems, solving a real-world problem only rarely equates to solving a single-discipline, single-system, or a single-culture problem. However, perhaps for an important set of real-world problems, some frameworks are better integrated across disciplines, systems, and cultures, and so do a better job generating valid, actionable recommendations for stakeholders. In this respect, are some frameworks (F N ) better than others?
Spohrer, J, P Pichiocchi, C Bassano (2011) Three frameworks for service research: exploring multilevel governance in nested, networked systems . Naples Service Forum, Capri, Italy. Source: Roughgarden, 2005. A B C upper (x) = 1 C lower (y) = y x = % drivers on upper road y = % drivers on lower road where x + y = 1 Expected commute time = x*C U (x) + y*C L (y) E(y) = (1-y)*1+y*y E(Selfish, y=1) = 0*1+1*1 = 1.0 hour E(Random, y=0.5) =0.5*1+0.5*0.5 = 0.75 hours
Approach to second challenge: T-shaped people & SSME+D SSME+D = Service Science, Management, Engineering + Design Many disciplines (understanding & communications) Many systems (understanding & communications) Deep in one discipline (analytic thinking & problem solving) Deep in one system (analytic thinking & problem solving) Many team-oriented service projects completed (resume: outcomes, accomplishments & awards)
What is a Service System? What is Service Science? …customers just name <your favorite provider> …researchers just name <your favorite discipline> Economics & Law Design/ Cognitive Science Systems Engineering Operations Computer Science/ Artificial Intelligence Marketing “ a service system is a human-made system to improve customer-provider interactions, or value-cocreation” “ service science is the interdisciplinary study of service systems & value-cocreation”
How to visualize service science? The Systems-Disciplines Matrix disciplines systems Systems that focus on flows of things Systems that govern Systems that support people’s activities transportation & supply chain water & waste food & products energy & electricity building & construction healthcare & family retail & hospitality banking & finance ICT & cloud education &work city secure state scale nation laws social sciences behavioral sciences management sciences political sciences learning sciences cognitive sciences system sciences information sciences organization sciences decision sciences run professions transform professions innovate professions e.g., econ & law e.g., marketing e.g., operations e.g., public policy e.g., game theory and strategy e.g., psychology e.g., industrial eng. e.g., computer sci e.g., knowledge mgmt e.g., stats & design e.g., knowledge worker e.g., consultant e.g., entrepreneur stakeholders Customer Provider Authority Competitors resources People Technology Information Organizations change History (Data Analytics) Future (Roadmap) value Run Transform (Copy) Innovate (Invent) Starting Point 1: The Stakeholders (As-Is) Starting Point 2: Their Resources (As-Is) Change Potential: Thinking (Has-Been & Might-Become) Value Realization: Doing (To-Be)
Job Roles: IBM Building Smarter Enterprises & A Smarter Planet https://jobs3.netmedia1.com/cp/find.ibm.jobs/location/
(trusted advisor to customer)
a value proposition to address problems or opportunities and enhance value co-creation relationships
a signed contract that defines work, outcomes, solution, rewards and risks for all parties
4. Project Manager (often with co-PM from customer side) a detailed project plan that balances time, costs, skills availability, and other resources, as well as adaptive realization of plan
(systems engineer, IT & enterprise architect)
An elegant solution design that satisfies functional and non-functional constraints across the system life-cycle
(systems engineer, Research, engineer,
Industry specialist, application, technician,
data, analyst, professional, agent)
a compelling working system (leading-edge prototype systems from Research)
Project Mix From 90-10 to 80-20: B2B – Business to Business B2G – Business to Government
Approach to first challenge: Smarter Planet & SSME+D INSTRUMENTED We now have the ability to measure, sense and see the exact condition of practically everything. INTERCONNECTED People, systems and objects can communicate and interact with each other in entirely new ways. INTELLIGENT We can respond to changes quickly and accurately, and get better results by predicting and optimizing for future events. IT NETWORKS WORKFORCE PRODUCTS SUPPLY CHAIN COMMUNICATIONS TRANSPORTATION BUILDINGS
Our planet is a complex, dynamic, highly interconnected $54 Trillion system-of-systems (OECD-based analysis) Communication $ 3.96 Tn Transportation $ 6.95 Tn Leisure / Recreation / Clothing $ 7.80 Tn Healthcare $ 4.27 Tn Food $ 4.89 Tn Infrastructure $ 12.54 Tn Govt. & Safety $ 5.21 Tn Finance $ 4.58 Tn Electricity $ 2.94 Tn Education $ 1.36 Tn Water $ 0.13 Tn Global system-of-systems $54 Trillion (100% of WW 2008 GDP) Same Industry Business Support IT Systems Energy Resources Machinery Materials Trade Legend for system inputs Note: 1. Size of bubbles represents systems’ economic values 2. Arrows represent the strength of systems’ interaction Source: IBV analysis based on OECD This chart shows ‘systems‘ (not ‘industries‘) Our planet is a complex system-of-systems 1 Tn
Economists estimate, that all systems carry inefficiencies of up to $15 Tn, of which $4 Tn could be eliminated How to read the chart: For example, the Healthcare system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From that level of 42% inefficiency, economists estimate that ~34% can be eliminated (= 34% x 42%). We now have the capabilities to manage a system-of-systems planet Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480 Global economic value of $4 Trillion 7% of WW 2008 GDP Improvement potential $15 Trillion 28% of WW 2008 GDP Inefficiencies $54 Trillion 100% of WW 2008 GDP System-of-systems System inefficiency as % of total economic value Improvement potential as % of system inefficiency Education 1,360 Building & Transport Infrastructure 12,540 Healthcare 4,270 Government & Safety 5,210 Electricity 2,940 Financial 4,580 Food & Water 4,890 Transportation (Goods & Passenger) 6,950 Leisure / Recreation / Clothing 7,800 Communication 3,960 Analysis of inefficiencies in the planet‘s system-of-systems Note: Size of the bubble indicate absolute value of the system in USD Billions 42% 34% This chart shows ‘systems‘ (not ‘industries‘)
What improves Quality-of-Life? Product-Service System Innovations
A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*)
1. Transportation & supply chain
2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment
3. Food & products manufacturing
4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech
5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access)
B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*)
20/10/10 0/19/0 2/7/4 2/1/1 7/6/1 1/1/0 5/17/27 1/0/2 24/24/1 2/20/24 7/10/3 5/2/2 3/3/1 0/0/0 1/2/2 Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities * = US Labor % in 2009. “ 61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”
Regional Innovation Ecosystems & Holistic Service Systems http://www.service-science.info/archives/1056
Definition: A service system that can support its primary populations, independent of all external service systems, for some period of time, longer than a month if necessary, and in some cases, indefinitely
Balance independence with interdependence, without becoming overly dependent
For-profits Non-profits Start-Ups ~25-50% of start-ups are new IT-enabled service offerings SaaS PaaS IaaS http://www.thesrii.org Largest? Smallest? Nation State/Province City/Region Hospital Medical Research University Colleges K-12 Luxury Resort Hotels Family (household ) Person (professional )
Corning: A Day Made of Glass http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38
Luxury Hotels as Holistic Service Systems: All the systems http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm7MeZlS5fo
10. Education : Cost of keeping up best practices..
11. Cities : Town & gown relationship.
12. States : Development partnerships..
13. Nations : Compliance and alignment.
Universities & Regional Innovation Ecosystems (Data) % GDP and % Top-500-Universities Strong Correlation (2009 Data): National GDP and University Rankings http://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html
University Trend: More Locally Connected Research Centers
Disciplines in Schools (circles)
Innovation Centers (squares)
E.g., CMU Website (2009)
“ Research Centers: where it all happens – to solve real-world problems”
Disciplines in Schools
Research discipline problems
Innovation Centers (ICs)
Research real-world systems
D D D D D D Engineering School Social Sciences, Humanities Professional Studies Business School water & waste transportation health energy/grid e-government Science & Mathematics I-School Design food & supply chain
University & Regional Innovation Ecosystems (Why?) School of Public Policy School of Engineering School of Business Mngmnt School of Medicine School of Education School of Architecture School of Urban Planning School of Hospitality School of Information School of Science & Arts University: The Heart of Regional Innovation Ecosystems Incubator & Start-Ups $ Cities & Public Safety Government Service to Individuals & Institutions Education Transportation Energy ICT (Computing & Communications) Retail & Hospitality Food & Products Health Building Finance University: The Heart of Regional Innovation Ecosystems
Accelerating Regional Innovation: Universities as “Living Labs” for Host Cities UNIVERSITIES: Research Centers & Real-World Systems CITIES/METRO REGIONS: Universities Key to Long-Term Economic Development
Universities connect information flows between other HSS, cities, states, nations
World as System of Systems
World (light blue - largest)
Nations (green - large)
Regions (dark blue - medium)
Cities (yellow - small)
Universities (red - smallest)
Cities as System of Systems
Transportation & Supply Chain
Water & Waste Recycling
Food & Products ((Nano)
Energy & Electricity
Information /ICT & Cloud (Info)
Buildings & Construction
Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment
Banking & Finance
Healthcare & Family (Bio)
Education & Professions (Cogno)
Government (City, State, Nation)
Nations: Innovation Opportunities
GDP/Capita (level and growth rate)
Energy/Capita (fossil and renewable)
IBM UP WW: Tandem Awards: Increasing university linkages (knowledge exchange interactions) Developed Market Nations (> $20K GDP/Capita) Emerging Market Nations (< $20K GDP/Capita)
Need tool: Global Service Ecology Simulator, Dashboard, CAD Tool 2000 2010 2020 2030 Log Entities 6 9 12 15 Projected Simulation Capability Earth Simulator Universe Simulation Brain Simulation Heart Simulation Global Service Ecology Simulation – 2016?
Average NSF funding: $30,354,000 Average NSF funding: $7,781,000 95 of Top NSF-funded Universities with HPC 98 of Top NSF-funded Universities w/out HPC With HPC Without HPC Journal of Information Technology, Volume 10, Issue 2 (accepted) www.jiti.net
Smarter = Sustainable Innovation (reduce waste, expand capabilities) Computational System Building Smarter Technologies Requires investment roadmap Service Systems: Stakeholders & Resources 1. People 2. Technology 3. Shared Information 4. Organizations connected by win-win value propositions Building Smarter Universities & Cities Requires investment roadmap
Year 1: 20% Year 2: 20% Year 3: 20% Year N: 20% . . . . . . . . After a decade the course may look quite different Service systems are learning systems: productivity, quality, etc. Maglio, P., Srinivasan, S., Kreulen, J.T., Spohrer, J. (2006), Service systems, service scientists, SSME, and innovation. Communications of the ACM, 49(7), 81-85.
Time ECOLOGY 14B Big Bang (Natural World) 10K Cities (Human-Made World) Sun writing (symbols and scribes) Earth written laws bacteria (uni-cell life) sponges (multi-cell life) money (coins) universities clams (neurons) trilobites (brains) printing press (books) steam engine Where is the “Real Science”? In the interdisciplinary sciences that study the natural and human-made worlds… Unraveling the mystery of evolving hierarchical-complexity in new populations… To discover the world’s structures and mechanisms for computing non-zero-sum Value-CoCreation (VCC) Architectures & Holistic Service Systems (HSS) 200M bees (social division-of-labor) 60 transistor
Urban-Age.Net Currently, the world’s top 30 cities generate 80% of the world’s wealth. The Urban Age For the first time in history more than 50% the earth’s population live in cities - by 2050 it will be 75% The Endless City
Edu-Impact.Com: Growing Importance of Universities with Large, Growing Endowments “ When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”
Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer Director, IBM University Programs (IBM UP) WW firstname.lastname@example.org “ Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM “ If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org “ Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU “ Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli “ The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson “ The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay “ Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer “ Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge “ History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells “ The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov “ Think global, act local.” – Geddes
Priority 1: Urban Sustainability & Service Innovation Centers
A. Research: Holistic Modeling & Analytics of Service Systems
Modeling and simulating cities will push state-of-the-art capabilities for planning interventions in complex system of service systems
Includes maturity models of cities, their analytics capabilities, and city-university interactions
Provides an interdisciplinary integration point for many other university research centers that study one specialized type of system
Real-world data and advanced analytic tools are increasingly available
B. Education: STEM (Science Tech Engineering Math) Pipeline & LLL
City simulation and intervention planning tools can engage high school students and build STEM skills of the human-made world (service systems)
Role-playing games can prepare students for real-world projects
LLL = Life Long Learning
C. Entrepreneurship: Job Creation
City modeling and intervention planning tools can engage university
students and build entrepreneurial skills
Grand challenge competitions can lead to new enterprises
PetCities = Petri-Dish Cities Citizen Population: 10 billion people in total Hierarchical Scales: 10 continents with 10 nations with 10 states with 10 cities each PetCities: Each city has 8 apartment buildings (orange) with 125 floors Apartments: Each floor has 1000 citizens, grouped into four 250-citizen neighborhoods In-Use Occupied De-construction Re-construction water food energy communications buildings retail finance health education family governance sports transportation open space
Fun: CityOne Game to Learn “CityInvesting” Serious Game to teach problem solving for real issues in key industries, helping companies to learn how to work smarter. Energy, Water, Banking, Retail http://www.ibm.com/cityone
Regional Innovation Ecosystems: NY State Top Employers (Healthy, Frugal, Wealthy, Innovative, Wealthy, Wise…)
Understanding the Human-Made World See Paul Romer’s Charter Cities Video: http://www.ted.com/talks/paul_romer.html Also see: Symbolic Species, Deacon Company of Strangers, Seabright Sciences of the Artificial, Simon
January 10, 2011 By Mark Whitehouse at [email_address]
One approach is to enhance GDP with other objective factors such as inequality, leisure and life expectancy. In a paper presented Saturday at the American Economic Association meeting, Stanford economists Peter Klenow and Charles Jones found that doing so can make a big difference.
Making everybody work 120 hours a week could radically boost a country's GDP per capita, but it wouldn't make people happier. Removing pollution limits could boost GDP per hour worked, but wouldn't necessarily lead to a world we'd want to live in.
Why 13 types of service systems? K-12 STEM and the human-made world “ Imagine a better service system, and use STEM language to explain why it is better” STEM = Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics See NAE K-12 engineering report: http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12635 See Challenge-Based Learning: http://www.nmc.org/news/nmc/nmc-study-confirms-effectiveness-challenge-based-learning
Challenge-based Project to Design Improved Service Systems
K - Transportation & Supply Chain
1 - Water & Waste Recycling
2 - Food & Products (Nano)
3 - Energy & Electric Grid
4 – Information /ICT & Cloud (Info)
5 - Buildings & Construction
6 – Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment (tourism)
7 – Banking & Finance/Business & Consulting
8 – Healthcare & Family Life (Bio)
9 - Education & Work Life/Jobs & Entrepreneurship (Cogno)
10 – City (Government)
11 – State /Region (Government)
12 – Nation (Government)
Higher Ed – T-shaped teamwork, deep & broad education
Professional Life – T-shaped teamwork, series of projects
Systems that focus on Governing Systems that focus on Human Activities and Development Systems that focus on Flow of things
“ All the information workers observed experienced a high level of fragmentation in the execution of their activities. People averaged about three minutes on a task and about two minutes on any electronic device or paper document before switching tasks.”
Gloria Mark and Victor M. Gonzalez, authors of “Research on Multi-tasking in the Workplace”
“ Cities are the defining artifacts of civilisation. All the achievements and failings of humanity are here… We shape the city, and then it shapes us. Today, almost half the global population lives in cities.”
John Reader, author of Cities
IBM Releases ``IBM and the Future of our Cities'' Podcast
“… of the 100 entities with the largest Gross National Product (GNP), about half were multi-national corporations (MNCs)… The MNCs do not exist on traditional maps.”
Alfred Chandler and Bruce Mazlish, authors of Leviathans
“ The corporation has evolved constantly during its long history. The MNC of the late twentieth century … were very different from the great trading enterprises of the 1700s. The type of business organization that is now emerging -- the globally integrated enterprise -- marks just as big a leap. “
“ Understanding economic change including everything from the rise of the Western world to the demise of the Soviet Union requires that we cast a net much broader than purely economic change because it is a result of changes in (1) the quantity and quality of human beings; (2) in the stock of human knowledge particularly as applied to human command over nature; and (3) the institutional framework that defines the deliberate incentive structure of a society.”
Douglass C. North, author of Understanding the Process of Economic Change
Local Optimization does not equal Global Optimization
Selfish behavior need not produce a socially optimal outcome
“ Selfish Entities”
all choose lower road, so travel time is 1 hour for them all…
Entities all reason that if even one other entity takes the upper road, it will be faster to take lower road
“ Random Entities”
½ choose upper and ½ choose lower, so half of travel times are 1 hour, and the other half are just 0.5 hours on the less congested lower road…
Rules (laws, incentives, etc.) can produce similar results by influencing reasoned behavior
From: Roughgarden, T (2005) Selfish Routing and the Price of Anarchy. MIT Press. Cambridge, MA (commuters traveling from suburb (A) to city (B) can choose “the winding upper road which take an hour” or they can choose “the highway lower road which takes time proportional to number of commuters”) . A B C upper (x) = 1 C lower (y) = y x = % drivers on upper road y = % drivers on lower road x + y = 1 Expected commute time = x*1 + y*y E(Selfish) = 1.0 hours E(Random) = 0.75 hours
Service scientist own the body of knowledge around service system problem solving
Service scientists identify a service system that needs improvement
Service scientists identify the stakeholders their concerns and perceived opportunities
Service scientists envision augmentations (additional new service systems) or reconfigurations (of old service systems components) that best address all problems and opportunities
Identify year-over-year improvement trajectories
Identify incentives to change (ROI, leadership, laws)
Under what conditions do value propositions exist between service systems to justify service for service exchanges?
Case 1 – complementary superior performance
A = 1 4, B = 3 2
A: 10 + 40 = 50
B: 30 + 20 = 50
Over produce best by one and exchange
A: 11 + 36 = 47
B: 27 + 22 = 49
Case 2 – one with strictly superior performance, namely A
A = 1 2, B = 4 3
A: 10 + 20 = 30
B: 40 + 30 = 70
Over produce best by one and exchange
A: 11 + 18 = 29
B: 36 + 33 = 69
Assume service system A and B (imagine two people, family-clans, cities, nations, or businesses) each produce two same kinds of service, each have demand for ten performances of the services each day, and each have different costs of producing the services for self-service consumption
Surprisingly, in Case 2, it still makes sense to exchange service for service as well!
Of course, this ignores transaction costs associated with the exchange…
What happens when the cost decreases with experience/learning/innovations?
What about trading the skill to perform a service, rather than simply performances?
Under what conditions are compliance laws innovative in a service system of selfish optimizers?
A population of commuters must drive from point A to point B. There are two roads. The first road always takes one hour. The second road takes time proportional to the amount of traffic (all = 1). If everyone takes the second road, the time is one hour. All drivers take the second road, it is never worse than one hour, and maybe better.
Two roads with composed of two parts. First road has constant one hour plus one hour max if congested. Second road has one hour max if congested plus one hour. Traffic splits so everyone gets from point A to point B in 90 minutes. However, by adding a zero cost interchange connecting the two midpoints, now everyone takes the two connected congested routes, and now every takes 120 minutes!
A B C(x) = 1 C(x) = x A law that mandates odd and even license plates take different routes on different days, if backed up with sampling and tickets/fines, could yield better results.
How entities (service systems) learn and change over time History and future of Run-Transform-Innovate investment choices
Learning & Change
Run = use existing knowledge or standard practices (use)
Transform = adopt a new best practice (copy)
Innovate = create a new best practice (invent)
March, J.G. (1991) Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organizational Science. 2(1).71-87. exploit explore Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Transform Innovate Invest in each type of change Ru n