Embracing societal transformation 20111005 v1


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This is follow-up from the IBM Almaden Sept 27th meeting on "Regional Upward Spirals: The Co-Evolution of Future Technologies, Skills, Jobs, and Quality-of-Life"

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  • Reference content from this presentation as: Spohrer, JC (2011) Regional Upward Spirals: The Co-Evolution of Future Technologies, Skills, Jobs, Quality-of-Life. Tuesday September 27 th , 2011. Permission to redistribute granted upon request to spohrer@us.ibm.com
  • Gathering Storm, Revisited: http://www.uic.edu/index.html/Chancellor/risingabove.pdf The Gathering Storm report clarifies the challenge of regional (national) competition in a global labor market – where a great deal of work that institutions need done can be done where-ever the cost, talent, and regulations are most favorable… the Gathering Storm report acknowledges the importance of progress in all regions to produce a safer world for everyone. The Gathering Storm presents evidence that the US’s innovation edge is slipping away in part as a result of the nature of the new competition, and makes specific recommendations to regain America’s competitiveness – by investing in accelerating regional innovation – recognizing the importance of K-12 Education, university STEM programs, first R&D jobs and professional career paths, and regulatory climate in regional innovation ecosystems – all of these can be seen to be centered on the university as key to accelerating regional innovation…
  • The quotes tell an important story… and help clarify the nature of the four recommendations (which I have re-ordered from the original report), fix “broken” systems that interfere with a universities successful performance as the center of regional innovation ecosystem…
  • McKinsey Study: Urban Worlds http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/urban_world/index.asp IBM Study: How Smart is Your City? http://www.smartertravel.ie/download/1/downloads/How%20Smart%20is%20your%20City%20GBE03248USEN.pdf
  • http://www.measureofamerica.org/docs/APortraitOfCA.pdf
  • Technology is used by providers to perform more and more of the routine manual, cognitive, and transactional work Jobs Change: Individual Competencies & Institutional Roles
  • Part of IBM’s approach to the second problem is T-shaped people and service science…. What is the skills goal? T-shaped professional, ready for T-eamwork… T-shaped people are ready for T-eamwork – they are excellent communicators, with real world experience, and deep (or specialized) in at least one discipline and systems area, but with good team work skills interacting with others who are deep in other disciplines and systems areas. Also, T-shaped professionals also make excellent entrepreneurs, able to innovate with others to create new technology, business, and societal innovations. T-shaped people are adaptive innovators, and well prepared for life-long learning in case they need to become deep in some new area… they are better prepared than I-shaped people, who lack the breadth. Therefore, IBM and other public and private organizations are looking to hire more of this new kind of skills and experience profile – one that is both broad and deep.. These organizations have been collaborating with universities around the world to establish a new area of study known as service science, management, engineering, and design (SSMED) – to prepare computer scientists, MBAs, industrial engineers, operations research, management of information systems, systems engineers, and students of many other discipline areas – to understand better how to work on multidisciplinary teams and attack the grand challenge problems associated with improving service systems…
  • There are many opportunities for educational institutions to specialize. Better tuned competence of individuals allows graduates to hit the ground running and better fill roles in business and societal institutions…. Better general education will allow more rapid learning of an arbitrary area of specialization, and create a more flexible labor force… All service systems transform something – perhaps the location, availability, and configuration of materials (flow of things), or perhaps people and what they do (people’s activities), or perhaps the rules of the game, constraints and consequences (governance). How to visualize service science? The systems-disciplines matrix… SSMED or service science, for short, provides a transdisciplinary framework for organizing student learning around 13 systems areas and 13 specialized academic discipline areas. We have already discussed the 13 systems areas, and the three groups (flows, human activity, and governing)… the discipline areas are organized into four areas that deal with stakeholders, resources, change, and value creation. If we have time, I have included some back-up slides that describes service science in the next level of detail. However, to understand the transdisciplinary framework, one just needs to appreciate that discipline areas such as marketing, operations, public policy, strategy, psychology, industrial engineering, computer science, organizational science, economics, statistics, and others can be applied to any of the 13 types of systems. Service science provides a transdisciplinary framework to organize problem sets and exercises that help students in any of these disciplines become better T-shaped professionals, and ready for teamwork on multidisciplinary teams working to improve any type of service system. As existing disciplines graduate more students who are T-shaped, and have exposure to service science, the world becomes better prepared to solve grand challenge problems and create smarter systems that deliver modern service. Especially, where students have had the opportunity to work as part of an urban innovation center that links their university with real-world problems in their urban environment – they will have important experiences to help them contribute to solving grand challenge problems. ================================================ SSMED (Service Science, Management, Engineering and Design) Systems change over their life cycle… what is inside become outside and vice versa In the course of the lifecycle… systems are merged and divested (fusion and fission) systems are insourced and outsourced (leased/contracted relations) systems are input and output (owner ship relations) SSMED standard should ensure people know 13 systems and 13 disciplines/professions (the key is knowing them all to the right level to be able to communicate and problem-solve effectively) Multidisciplinary teams – solve problems that require discipline knowledge Interdisciplinary teams – solve harder problems, because they create new knowledge in between disciplines Transdisciplinary teams – solve very hard problems, because the people know discipline and system knowledge Ross Dawson says “Collaboration drives everything” in his talk about the future of universities… https://deimos.apple.com/WebObjects/Core.woa/BrowsePrivately/griffith.edu.au.3684852440
  • http://www.npr.org/2011/09/24/140766796/out-of-economic-chaos-a-new-order-may-be-rising Also, see TECHNOLOGIES: AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES Once a secret project, Google's autonomous vehicles are now out in the open, quite literally, with the company test-driving them on public roads and, on one occasion, even inviting people to ride inside one of the robot cars as it raced around a closed course. Google's fleet of robotic Toyota Priuses has now logged more than 190,000 miles (about 300,000 kilometers), driving in city traffic, busy highways, and mountainous roads with only occasional human intervention. The project is still far from becoming commercially viable, but Google has set up a demonstration system on its campus, using driverless golf carts, which points to how the technology could change transportation even in the near future. http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/artificial-intelligence/how-google-self-driving-car-works
  • http://www.nyu.edu/about/leadership-university-administration/office-of-the-president/redirect/speeches-statements/global-network-university-reflection.html
  • Why service scientists are interested in universities…. They are in many ways the service system of most central importance to other service systems… Graph based on data from Source: http://www.arwu.org/ARWUAnalysis2009.jsp Analysis: Antonio Fischetto and Giovanna Lella (URome, Italy) students visiting IBM Almaden Dynamic graphy based on Swiss students work: http://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html US is still “off the chart” – China projected to be “off the chart” in less than 10 years: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 30,3 % US % of WW GDP: 23,3 % Correlating Nation’s (2004) % of WW GDP to % of WW Top-Ranked Universities US is literally “off the chart” – but including US make high correlation even higher: US % of WW Top-Ranked Universities: 33,865 % US % of WW GDP: 28,365 %
  • http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/student-loan-debt-hell-21-statistics-that-will-make-you-think-twice-about-going-to-college Posted below are 21 statistics about college tuition, student loan debt and the quality of college education in the United States.... #1 Since 1978, the cost of college tuition in the United States has gone up by over 900 percent . #2 In 2010, the average college graduate had accumulated approximately $25,000 in student loan debt by graduation day. #3 Approximately two-thirds of all college students graduate with student loans . #4 Americans have accumulated well over $900 billion in student loan debt. That figure is higher than the total amount of credit card debt in the United States. #5 The typical U.S. college student spends less than 30 hours a week on academics. #6 According to very extensive research detailed in a new book entitled "Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses", 45 percent of U.S. college students exhibit "no significant gains in learning" after two years in college. #7 Today, college students spend approximately 50% less time studying than U.S. college students did just a few decades ago. #8 35% of U.S. college students spend 5 hours or less studying per week. #9 50% of U.S. college students have never taken a class where they had to write more than 20 pages. #10 32% of U.S. college students have never taken a class where they had to read more than 40 pages in a week. #11 U.S. college students spend 24% of their time sleeping, 51% of their time socializing and 7% of their time studying. #12 Federal statistics reveal that only 36 percent of the full-time students who began college in 2001 received a bachelor's degree within four years. #13 Nearly half of all the graduate science students enrolled at colleges and universities in the United States are foreigners. #14 According to the Economic Policy Institute, the unemployment rate for college graduates younger than 25 years old was 9.3 percent in 2010. #15 One-third of all college graduates end up taking jobs that don't even require college degrees. #16 In the United States today, over 18,000 parking lot attendants have college degrees. #17 In the United States today, 317,000 waiters and waitresses have college degrees. #18 In the United States today, approximately 365,000 cashiers have college degrees. #19 In the United States today, 24.5 percent of all retail salespersons have a college degree. #20 Once they get out into the "real world", 70% of college graduates wish that they had spent more time preparing for the "real world" while they were still in school. #21 Approximately 14 percent of all students that graduate with student loan debt end up defaulting within 3 years of making their first student loan payment.
  • Edu-Impact.Com: Growing Importance of Universities with Large, Growing Endowments Recently visited Yang building at Stanford One of the greenest buildings on the planet But if it does not evolve in 20 years it will not be the greenest building Visited supercomputers – we have two at IBM Almaden – there was a time they were in the top 100 supercomputers in the world – not any more …. So a Moore’s law of buildings is more than cutting waste in half every year, it is also about the amount of time it takes to structural replace the material with newer and more modern materials that provide benefits…
  • What are the largest and smallest service system entities that have the problem of interconnected systems? Holistic Service Systems like nations, states, cities, and universities – are all system of systems dealing with flows, development, and governance. =============\\ Nations (~100) States/Provinces (~1000) Cities/Regions (~10,000) Educational Institutions (~100,000) Healthcare Institutions (~100,000) Other Enterprises (~10,000,000) Largest 2000 >50% GDP WW Families/Households (~1B) Persons (~10B) Balance/Improve Quality of Life, generation after generation GDP/Capita Quality of Service Customer Experience Quality of Jobs Employee Experience Quality of Investment-Opportunities Owner Experience Entrepreneurial Experience Sustainability GDP/Energy-Unit % Fossil % Renewable GDP/Mass-Unit % New Inputs % Recycled Inputs
  • http://www.information-age.com/channels/data-centre-and-it-infrastructure/news/1653163/technology-firm-plans-dummy-smart-city-in-the-desert.thtml http://news.yahoo.com/high-tech-ghost-town-being-constructed-mexico-053241260.html http://www.jrf.org.uk/publications/why-do-people-buy-new-build-housing
  • Regional entities include nations, states, cities, universities, and households Holistic product-service systems are regional entities Entities learning equates to regional innovation (co-evolution of infrastructure, individual, institutions, and information – regional upward spirals) Institutions (Regional Governments/Ecosystems as well as Enterprises, For-Profits and Not-For-Profits): Run-Transform-Innovate Learning Theory is an IBM-elaboration of March’s “Exploitation-Exploration” model, where Exploration can involve copying another entity and transforming oneself (less risk if other entity has already “tested and validated” the innovation works, and involves internal-external-interactional transformation risks), Innovate is both inventing processes and implementing them to realize the benefits (and has risks of wasted investments and costly attempted, but failed, implementations). The strategy of just exploiting existing knowledge and not learning/changing is flawed if other entities are learning and improving and adapting to a dynamic environment. Not changing in a dynamic, competitive environment can lead to extinction. Individuals (Skills): T-shaped Professionals are both deep and broad – deep problem-solving and analytics skills in some discipline and for some type of system/industry sector, along with broad communication and soft-skills for high-performance teamwork involving human interactions with specialists in many disciplines and system/industry sector areas, including disciplinary, systems, and cultural diversity. The breadth of a T-shaped professionals communication skills is characterized in a framework known as the systems-disciplines framework, with 13 horizontal discipline-related knowledge areas, and 13 vertical systems/industry-sector-related areas. Although rarely discussed, there is a third dimension that includes 13 major cultural areas… Cultural variations are especially important in both understanding interaction styles as well as cultural variations in quality-of-life measures. A fourth dimension might someday include personality types… such as Myers-Briggs…
  • We will see that this societal transformation (like others before) will further elevate the role of universities for improving regional innovation performance and global competitiveness….
  • Henry Ford understood the paying his employees a fair wage created customers Drucker said the purpose of business is to create new customers Value-Cocreation Model strengthens both provider and customer, giving them both expanded capability to invest in innovation – because they are playing a game with a non-zero-sum mindset. Value-CoCreation Worldview has also been called Co-Elevation Worldview (Kijima, Tokyo Tech) and Augmentation Worldview (Engelbart, Bootstrap Institute) Compete for (the benefit of) others, includes helping others learn by giving them practice – as when a master competes against his student in chess (the experience creates teachable moments in a post-mortem analysis) Taxes are very important to proper governance! Taxes must be such that work can be done from anywhere for anywhere – globally integrated enterprises – and incentivize regional innovation/entities learning/value-cocreation competition Where is the corporate HQ? What are the corporate income taxes in that nation? Attractors of talent/sources of innovation gain an advantage Where are the customers? What are the value-added-taxes (VAT) for consumption in that nation? Where are the employees living and where is their primary household? What are the income taxes and residence/property taxes in those nation? (recall even hotel guests pay local taxes that go to the local government)
  • Trust is earned through a history of superior interaction performance (“happenings”) – one failure (unfair outcome) can erase hundreds of successes (fair outcomes)… Thomas Jefferson wrote about the right to the pursuit of happiness, and happiness was realizing opportunities to accumulate a history of “happenings” where an entities’ knowledge and competences made a positive difference in interactions with other entities in the world… (value-cocreation outcomes and episodes, or happiness through service to others)
  • U-BEE = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems
  • Physical Capital: Environmental and technology infrastructure Less waste, more capabilities, more resilient, more sustainable, etc. Human Capital: Individual skills, institutional job roles, cultural information Natural and human-made disasters devastate “whole service” Service systems are dynamic configurations of people, technology, shared information, and other service system, connected by value-propositions and interacting to co-create value
  • Happy Birthday IBM – 100 years, IBM is celebrating its centennial, and 18 th year of #1 in patents in the world…. I want to thank my IBM colleagues… here are some facts about IBM… Sources http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM#cite_note-10K-0 http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/33341.wss http://www.fiercecio.com/press-releases/ibm-reports-2010-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-nyse-ibm-q4
  • IBM gathers statistics related to the five 6 R’s on 5000 universities world wide… The best relations between IBM and universities involve what we call the five R’s – Research (or open collaborative research with a focus on grand challenge problems for business and society), Readiness (or skills), Recruiting (or jobs working on teams to building a smarter planet), Revenue (which is more and more about public-private partnerships that connect great universities and great cities), Responsibility (where IBM employees share their expertise, time, and resources with universities – including IBM guest lecturing in courses or judging student competitions), and Regions – newest and most important working with regional innovation ecosystems, in conjunction with our IBM Global Entrepreneurs program and SmartCamps…. About 15-20% of awards are in the analytics areas, and we see that growing to 25-33% this coming year and the future…. For more information: http://www.ibm.com/university Bay Area numbers… 300 fulltime hires in last five years 400 interns and co-ops students over 1000 employees who are alumni, between 2-10% executives over $3M in research and matching grant awards, over five times that in matching from government good customers of IBM
  • Embracing societal transformation 20111005 v1

    1. 1. Learning to Embrace Societal Transformations: From Gathering Storm to Regional Upward Spirals Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, [email_address] Innovation Champion and Director IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development) IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA Used with permission eVolo.us
    2. 2. Learning to embrace societal transformations “In democratic capitalism, both the government and the economy are built upon systems of broad-based self determination. And the private foundation is a creation of the latter, the economic system. From John Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie, Henry Ford, and Ewing Kauffman to Bill Gates and Eli Broad, virtually every foundation donor has been an entrepreneur—someone who first created wealth by starting a for-profit venture, and who then “reconstituted” part of that wealth in a potent new form by starting a foundation. …foundations need to focus on creating the future, not fixing the past.” – Carl J. Schramm, Kauffman Foundation in MANAGING FOUNDATIONS TOWARD THE GOAL OF EXPANDING HUMAN WELFARE <ul><li>Since the last ice age ended, roughly 10,000 to 20,000 years ago, a number of societal transformations have occurred in regions around the world. </li></ul><ul><li>Societal transformations change the nature of human interactions with each other and their environment, from hunter-gatherers, to farmers, to factory-workers, to knowledge-workers. </li></ul><ul><li>Societal transformations impact the nature of competition, and incumbent leaders often find it costly and risky to re-tool and embrace change. </li></ul><ul><li>Learning to embrace societal transformations = learning to embrace new forms of competition (knowing that the duration of “the game” is shrinking) </li></ul>
    3. 3. The Gathering Storm Report: Societal Transformation “The committee concluded that the United States appears to be on a course that will lead to declining, not growing, standard of living for our children and grandchildren .” – Gathering Storm “Gentlemen, we have run out of money. It is time to start thinking.” – Rutherford <ul><li>“ The Gathering Storm report is focused upon the ability of Americans to compete for employment in a job market that increasingly knows no geographic boundaries.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ The United States takes deserved pride in the vitality of its economy, which forms the foundation of our high quality of life, our national security, and out hope that our children and grandchildren will inherit every greater opportunities.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ The possession of quality jobs is the foundation of a high quality life for the nations citizenry.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ While only four percent of the nations workforce is composed of scientists and engineers, this group disproportionately creates jobs for the other 96 percent.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Further, the pace of creation of new knowledge appears by almost all measures to be accelerating.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ While this progress by other nations is to be both encouraged and welcomed, so too is the notion that Americans wish to continue to be among those people who do prosper.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ The Gathering Storm committee contends that it is strongly in America’s interest for all nations to prosper. Aside from its humanistic merit this outcome should produce a safer world for everyone…” </li></ul>
    4. 4. Recommendations: Toward Regional Upward Spirals “It would be impossible not to recognize the great difficulty of carrying out Gathering Storm recommendations, such as doubling the research budget, in today’s fiscal environment… However… One seemingly relevant analogy is that a non-solution to make an over-weight aircraft flight-worthy is to remove an engine.” – Gathering Storm Revisited “The fate of empires depends on how they educate their children.” – Aristotle “The best way to predict the future is to inspire & enable the next generation to build it better.” –IBM UPward <ul><li>I. Improve inputs to universities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fix “broken” K-12 system (invest in K-12) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>III. Improve outputs from universities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fix “broken” University system (invest in Higher Education) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>II. Improve transitions from university to first job </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fix “broken” Employment system (increase R&D funding) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>IV. Improve speed of regional innovation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fix “broken” Governance system (align visa, tax, etc. regulations) </li></ul></ul>
    5. 5. What does “societal transformation” actually change? <ul><li>The 4 I’s </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Information </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Individuals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Institutions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Geographic Unit of Analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Region/City & Lead University </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>McKinsey: Urban Worlds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>IBM: How Smart Is Your City? </li></ul></ul>Societal Infrastructure (Technologies & Environment) Individuals (Skills) Institutions (Jobs) Cultural Information (Quality-of-Life Measures) (challenges, language, laws, measures, models, routines)
    6. 6. Cultural Information & Quality-of-Life Measures: California Human Development Report 2011 http://www.measureofamerica.org/docs/APortraitOfCA.pdf
    7. 7. ~250 years of infrastructure transformations Source: Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages ; (Edward Elar Publishers, 2003). Installation Deployment Irruption The Industrial Revolution Age of Steam and Railways Age of Steel, Electricity and Heavy Engineering Age of Oil, Automobiles and Mass Production Age of Information and Telecommunications Frenzy Synergy Maturity Panic 1797 Depression 1893 Crash 1929 Credit Crisis 2008 Coming period of Institutional Adjustment and Production Capital 1 2 3 4 5 Panic 1847 1771 1829 1875 1908 1971 1873 1920 1974 1829 Crash <ul><li>Formation of Mfg. industry </li></ul><ul><li>Repeal of Corn Laws opening trade </li></ul><ul><li>Standards on gauge, time </li></ul><ul><li>Catalog sales companies </li></ul><ul><li>Economies of scale </li></ul><ul><li>Urban development </li></ul><ul><li>Support for interventionism </li></ul><ul><li>Build-out of Interstate highways </li></ul><ul><li>IMF, World Bank, BIS </li></ul>
    8. 8. ~100 years of US job transformations Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis
    9. 9. ~30 years of skill transformations: depth & breadth Levy, F, & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Princeton University Press. Expert Thinking Complex Communication Routine Manual Non-routine Manual Routine Cognitive
    10. 10. T-shaped professionals: depth & breadth Ready for Life-Long-Learning Ready for T-eamwork Ready to Help Build a Smarter Planet SSME+D = Service Science, Management, Engineering + Design Many disciplines (understanding & communications ) Many systems (understanding & communications) Deep in one discipline (analytic thinking & problem solving) Deep in one system (analytic thinking & problem solving) Many multi-cultural-team service projects completed (resume: outcomes, accomplishments & awards) BREADTH DEPTH
    11. 11. Systems-Disciplines Framework: Depth & Breadth disciplines systems Systems that focus on flows of things Systems that govern Systems that support people’s activities transportation & supply chain water & waste food & products energy & electricity building & construction healthcare & family retail & hospitality banking & finance ICT & cloud education &work city secure state scale nation laws social sciences behavioral sciences management sciences political sciences learning sciences cognitive sciences system sciences information sciences organization sciences decision sciences run professions transform professions innovate professions e.g., econ & law e.g., marketing e.g., operations e.g., public policy e.g., game theory and strategy e.g., psychology e.g., industrial eng. e.g., computer sci e.g., knowledge mgmt e.g., stats & design e.g., knowledge worker e.g., consultant e.g., entrepreneur stakeholders Customer Provider Authority Competitors resources People Technology Information Organizations change History (Data Analytics) Future (Roadmap) value Run Transform (Copy) Innovate (Invent) Starting Point 1: Observe the Stakeholders (As-Is) Starting Point 2: Observe their Resource Access (As-Is) Change Potential: Think It! (Has-Been & Might-Become & To-Be) Value Realization: Do It Together! (New As-Is)
    12. 12. Proposed societal transformation: Who’s first? NPR: Out of Economic Chaos, A New Order May Be Rising <ul><li>HAWLEY: The grand total of U.S. automotive fatalities from 1975 to the present, about one and a half million people. Now, the grand total of U.S. fatalities from 1775 to the present in every military conflict we've had is 1.3 million. So in other words, in the last roughly 35 years we've killed more people with cars than we have in more than 300 years of warfare. </li></ul><ul><li>I think if you step back and look at cars from a sort of 35,000 foot level, you've got to wonder why we're doing this to ourselves. And there's a tremendous amount of industry and employment built up around it. But suppose it all changed. </li></ul><ul><li>One way it could change is if human weren't allowed to drive cars anymore. Or let me put it differently. If cars were much more appealing because they drove themselves and did it safely. </li></ul><ul><li>And this isn't just Jetson stuff. There's a brilliant computer scientist, artificial intelligence researcher at Stanford, named Sebastian Thrun. He's invented a car that drives itself. You can hop in the car and you never touch the wheel or the pedals. It navigates through all the traffic snarls. It won't run over little old ladies in Pasadena. It won't even run over a squirrel. </li></ul><ul><li>If you could eliminate the seven million accidents per year, the 2.9 million injuries, the 40,000 fatalities, that would be enormous boon. But if you think about what would happen in the short term. Let's suppose in the next five or ten years this idea comes to fruition. </li></ul><ul><li>Think about all the disruption that could cause. You might not have to own a car. Well, that might be good. You'd have a garage that you could use to start up a company instead of storing a couple of rusting hulks of metal in it. You'd never have to call Tom and Ray Magliozzi again, because you wouldn't have to fix your car. </li></ul><ul><li>There wouldn't be a parking problem, because you'd push a little button on your iPhone, a smart car would zip up, pick you up, drop you off where you need to go. That means no more valets, no more taxi drivers, no more meter maids, no more traffic cops. You'd never hear a car horn, because why would a robot car honk at another robot car. Makes no sense. </li></ul><ul><li>But that's an example of the sort of change that in the short term can cause immense of amounts of anxiety and upheaval. </li></ul>http://www.npr.org/2011/09/24/140766796/out-of-economic-chaos-a-new-order-may-be-rising
    13. 13. A Framework for Global Civil Society Perhaps universities should be first to try societal transformations? <ul><li>Daniel Patrick Moynihan said nearly 50 years ago: &quot;If you want to build a world class city, build a great university and wait 200 years.&quot; His insight is true today – except yesterday's 200 years has become twenty. More than ever, universities will generate and sustain the world’s idea capitals and, as vital creators, incubators, connectors, and channels of thought and understanding, they will provide a framework for global civil society. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>John Sexton, President NYU </li></ul></ul>
    14. 14. What are the benefits of top-ranked universities? % WW GDP and % WW Top-500-Universities Strong Correlation (2009 Data): National GDP and University Rankings http://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html
    15. 15. What are the benefits of more education? Of higher skills? … But it can be costly, American student loan debt is over $900M
    16. 16. Universities Worldwide Accelerating Regional Development “ When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”
    17. 17. Our 21 st Century World: System of Systems Regional Nested, Networked Holistic Product-Service Systems http://www.service-science.info/archives/1056 <ul><li>Holistic Product-Service Systems provide access to “Whole Service” to people inside, including Transportation, Water, Food, Energy, Communications, Buildings, Retail, Finance, Health, Education, Governance, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Examples: Nations, States, Cities, Universities, Hotels, Hospitals, Homes </li></ul><ul><li>Definition: An holistic product-service system is a type of complex value-cocreation system that can provide “whole service” to its primary population of people, independent of all external systems, for an extended period of time, balancing independence with interdependence (outsourcing limits, re-cycle to sustain, etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems (U-BEE’s): Universities are usually in the “top five” job creators of regions, when they have associated incubators & science-technology parks, super-computing data centers, hospitals, cultural & conference hotels, K-12 schools, etc. </li></ul>For-profits Non-profits U-BEE Job Creators ~25-50% of start-ups are new IT-enabled service offerings SaaS PaaS IaaS http://www.thesrii.org Nation State/Province City/Region University College K-12 Cultural & Conference Hotels Hospital Medical Research Worker (professional ) Family (household )
    18. 18. Pegasus Global Holdings $200M Smart City Living Lab <ul><li>7 September 2011   </li></ul><ul><li>The Center for Innovation, Testing and Evaluation will cover 20 square miles in New Mexico, and will resemble a mid-sized American city, including urban canyons, suburban neighborhoods, rural communities and distant localities. </li></ul><ul><li>Potentially be able to house up to 35,000 people and will operate as if people are actually living there </li></ul><ul><li>The facility will allow technology companies, university and urban planners to test the &quot;positive and negative impacts emerging technologies - Smart Grid, intelligent traffic systems, cyber security and more </li></ul><ul><li>estimated cost $200 million </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Smart City Living Lab ~$6K per potential-citizen to build/launch </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economy Hotel Projects ~$30K per guest-room to build/launch </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Highest Priced Luxury Resort Hotels ~$600K per guest-room to build/launch </li></ul></ul>
    19. 19. The Gathering Storm , Revisited for All Regions “There is nothing as practical as a good theory.” – Kurt Lewin “History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells <ul><li>Regions are entities that must learn to learn better </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Regions = Nations, States, Cities, etc… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Learning = Improving the global competitiveness performance of a region </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Regional entities = “Holistic product-service systems” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>that provision access to high-quality “whole service” to the people in them </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>that also provision access to high quality products & services globally </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>to contribute to a higher quality-of-life, both inside and outside their region </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>service science studies product-service systems & customer-provider interactions (value-cocreation mechanisms, including the servitization of products and productization of service by the algorithmic revolution and other means) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Regional innovation = “Entities learning” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Run-Transform-Innovate Learning Framework” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ T-Shaped Professionals & the Systems-Disciplines Framework” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems (U-BEEs) </li></ul></ul>
    20. 20. A major societal transformation is underway… “If we’re number one in technology, why do I have to call India for tech support?” – Jay Leno “Ideas are the new currency in a global knowledge economy.” – Ben Wildavsky, Senior Fellow, Kauffman Foundation “No country can lead in today’s world unless it leads in science.” – Speaker Nancy Pelosi “A history of modernization is in essence a history of scientific and technological progress… I firmly believe science is the ultimate revolution.” – Wen Jiabao, Premier, People’s Republic of China <ul><li>Driven by “The Death of Distance” & “Algorithmic Revolution” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cairncross, Economist (1997) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Zysman, CACM (2006) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Manifesting in new forms of “Global Competition” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Friedman, The World is Flat (2005) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Characterized as a “Gathering Storm” by Americans </li></ul><ul><ul><li>US National Academies (2005, 2007, 2011) </li></ul></ul>
    21. 21. Societal Transformations Change The Rules of Competition “The purpose of business is to create and keep a customer.” – Peter Drucker <ul><li>From Value-Creation Worldview: Compete Against Others - Zero-Sum Mindset </li></ul><ul><ul><li>During different time intervals some regions begin to pull ahead, and some fall behind… eventually the people in lagging regions immigrate to leading regions, some lagging regions “collapse” and are absorbed into other regions or remain dysfunctional… not only is human capital squandered in lagging and collapsed regions, but human suffering grows over time in these regions…. disenfranchised populations create a security threat for all…. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>To Value-CoCreation Worldview: Compete With/For Others - Non-Zero-Sum Mindset </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The gains of innovators are “taxed” based on geography of their customers as well as home location of provider (providers cannot succeed without customers)… as innovators seek to expand their markets into other regions successfully the “governments” of both provider and customer regions see tax revenues increase… accelerating both “transform” and “innovate” capabilities… accelerating entities learning and regional innovation. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovator regions benefit the most, but the incentive is not to pull so far ahead that other regions lag too far behind or collapse; the incentive is to also create wealthier more capable customers over time, and regions compete in cycles of progress that move everyone forward… </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Simple Examples of Value-CoCreation Model: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Toyota locating manufacturing plants in the US </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ The Huppenthal Method” Style of Learning Competition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Students compete, but “winning” is defined as everyone completing the work as fast as possible, to beat their individual and collective previous best time </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Leaders help those lagging behind catch-up, peer-mentoring and win-win NZS mindset </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Demonstrated accelerated learning times and elevated student engagement levels </li></ul></ul></ul>
    22. 22. In Sum… “College is more valuable to the future economy than petroleum.” – Greg Easterbrook, Author “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they’ve tried everything else.” – Churchill <ul><li>Gathering Storm reflects a major societal transformation underway </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Driven by “The Death of Distance” and “Algorithmic Revolution” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manifesting in new, challenging forms of “Global Competition” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The nature of regional competition is being transformed (accelerating)… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>From Value-Creation Worldview: “Compete Against” - Zero-Sum Mindset </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To Value-CoCreation Worldview: “Compete With/For” - Non-Zero-Sum Mindset </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The transformation depends on increasing “trust” … a hard thing to do </li></ul><ul><ul><li>However, increasing interconnectedness suggests there is no other viable alternative </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cascade failures in globally interconnected economies are a real threat to stability </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Increased trust can only be earned by performance against a shared innovation roadmap, or a shared vision for a better future for all… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>For example, climate change and sustainable environment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>For example, increased global security and financial stability </li></ul></ul><ul><li>It is time to get our priorities straight and focus on what matters most… </li></ul>
    23. 23. Embracing Societal Transformations & Regional Upward Spirals <ul><li>Who will be first? second? third? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Which university? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Which city? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Which state? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Which nation? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Risk & rewards </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Going first is one measure of leadership/innovation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rewards can be high for successful innovators </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>However, going first has costs, risks, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>When consensus fails, breaking away to form new groups may be necessary </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Getting smarter about societal transformations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What ‘game’ are we really playing? What are we trying to optimize? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What is the smartest way to lower costs, reduce risks, and allow regions that invest in change to realize the benefits of innovations in the shortest period of time? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gathering Storm: How should “democratic capitalism” operate in the 21 st century? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nearly 30% of top-ranked universities (cities within cities) is one of America’s greatest competitive assets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>From regional universities to U-BEEs to successful entrepreneurs to new foundations </li></ul></ul>
    24. 24. What’s the best way to predict the future? <ul><li>The best way to predict the future is…. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To create it. (Moliere) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To invent it. (Kay) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To inspire and enable each generation to build it better (IBM Upward) </li></ul></ul>
    25. 25. Please Visit IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA <ul><li>Conferences </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sept 27 th , 2011 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Future Technologies, Skills & Jobs </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>July 2012 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>ISSS & SRII San Jose </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>HSSE San Francisco </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>More Information </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Blog </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>www.service-science.info </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Twitter </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>@JimSpohrer </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Presentations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>www.slideshare.net/spohrer </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Email </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul></ul></ul>
    26. 26. Agenda: Sept 27 th IBM Almaden Event Regional Upward Spirals: Co-Evolution of Tech, Skills, Jobs, Quality-of-Life <ul><li>1. Historical Patterns: Technology & Regional Economic Cycles (8:30) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fleming (IBM), Laboissiere (McKinsey), Qayoumi (SJSU), LeBlanc (SNHU), King (IBM) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10:00 Morning Break & Refreshments </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2. Future Technologies & Societal Infrastructure (10:45am) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(Including Urban Innovation, Sustainability, and Resilience) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Zysman (Berkeley), O’Connor (Autodesk), Jeffery (IFTF), Narayan (IBM), Asakawa (IBM) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>12:30 Lunch </li></ul></ul><ul><li>3. Future Skills & Jobs (1:30pm) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Wladalsky-Berger(IBM),Chui (McKinsey),Gorbis(IFTF),Richey(Boeing),Gardner (MSU), Dunagan(IBM), </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3:00 Afternoon Break & Refreshments </li></ul></ul><ul><li>4. Future Career Paths & Quality-of-Life Measures (3:30) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Milbergs(WEDC), Gorham(IEEE), Kambhatla(IBM), Klein-Collins(CAEL), Shah(IBM), Griffith(SCU) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>5:00 Next steps & Closing </li></ul></ul>
    27. 27. IBM operates in 170 countries around the globe IBM has 426,000 employees worldwide <ul><li>2010 Financials </li></ul><ul><li>Revenue - $ 99.9B </li></ul><ul><li>Net Income - $ 14.8B </li></ul><ul><li>EPS - $ 11.52 </li></ul><ul><li>Net Cash - $11.7B </li></ul>21% of IBM’s revenue in growth market countries; growing at 13% in late 2010 Number 1 in patent generation for 18 consecutive years ; 5,896 US patents awarded in 2010 More than 40% of IBM’s workforce conducts business away from an office 5 Nobel Laureates 9 time winner of the President’s National Medal of Technology & Innovation - latest award for Blue Gene Supercomputer The Smartest Machine On Earth 100 Years of Business & Innovation “ Let’s Build a Smarter Planet&quot;
    28. 28. IBM University Programs: What We Do: The “6 R’s” (not to be confused with 3 R’s) <ul><li>1. Research </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Research awards focus on grand challenge problems and big bets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/university/research </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2. Readiness </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Access to IBM tools, methods, and course materials to develop skills </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>https://www.ibm.com/developerworks/university/academicinitiative </li></ul></ul><ul><li>3. Recruiting </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Internships and full-time positions working to build a smarter planet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.ibm.com/jobs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>4. Revenue </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Improve performance, the university as a complex enterprise (city within city) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http:// www.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/bus/html/bcs_education.html </li></ul></ul><ul><li>5. Responsibility </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Community service provides access to IBMers expertise/resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ibmgives/ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>6. Regions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Regional innovation ecosystems – incubators, entrepreneurship, jobs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.ibm.com/ibm/governmentalprograms/innovissue.html </li></ul></ul>