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Better Rules for Making Rules
• Technologies
– Easier
• Rules
– Harder
• Challenge
– Politics
• Solution
– Game
Theory?
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
1
“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
2
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
3
1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Evolution of Phones
What exists in 2015?
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
4
360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
What might $1000 buy in 2035/2055?
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
5
2035
2055
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
6
Smart Service System:
All entities’ in network
use cognitive mediators
to enhance
value co-creation interactions
Cognitive Mediators:
Cognitive systems
with deep knowledge of both
customer (user) and provider (expert)
as co-creators of win-win value
Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions
CSIG Mission
• Cognitive mediators for all roles/occupations
in smart service systems.
– Why would anyone want this? Who cares?
– How hard is this and how long will it take?
– Is there a list of all occupations? Does it change?
– What is a cognitive mediator? Cognitive scientist?
– What is a smart service system? Service scientist?
– What could possibly go wrong?
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
7
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
8
Mission: Cognitive Mediators
for All Roles/Occupations
What could possibly go wrong?
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
9
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
10
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
11
Sciences provide…
• Frameworks for people to ask and answer
questions systematically
• Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do”
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
12
Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking -
“To our children and children’s children,
to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world
that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.”
Proenneke:
Alone in the Wilderness -
To do a thorough testing,
should each generation
be required to rapidly rebuild
from scratch?
A re-makers movement?
In Summary
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
13
“A service science
perspective considers
the evolving ecology of
service system entities,
their value co-creation and
capability co-elevation
interactions, and their
capabilities, constraints,
rights, and responsibilities.”
Cognitive Systems
Entities
Service
Systems
Entities With
Cognitive
Mediators
Add Rights &
Responsibilities
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
14
Explain external
phenomena
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
15
Explain internal
phenomena
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
16
Explain
value co-creation
phenomena
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
17
Physics Chemistry Biology
Neuroscience Psychology Artificial
Intelligence
Engineering Management Public
Policy
Education Design Humanities
Natural Systems
Cognitive Systems
Service Systems
Assisting individuals and organizations
to close their service innovation skills gap
and co-create smarter service systems
empowering employees, customers, citizens
with cognitive mediators
in the collaborative service economy
7/31/2015
© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University
Programs Worldwide accelerating regional
development
19

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Better rules for making rules needed 20150731 v1

  • 1. Better Rules for Making Rules • Technologies – Easier • Rules – Harder • Challenge – Politics • Solution – Game Theory? 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 1
  • 2. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better” 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 2 Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government
  • 3. 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 3 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Evolution of Phones
  • 4. What exists in 2015? 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 4 360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
  • 5. What might $1000 buy in 2035/2055? 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 5 2035 2055
  • 6. 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 6 Smart Service System: All entities’ in network use cognitive mediators to enhance value co-creation interactions Cognitive Mediators: Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert) as co-creators of win-win value Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions
  • 7. CSIG Mission • Cognitive mediators for all roles/occupations in smart service systems. – Why would anyone want this? Who cares? – How hard is this and how long will it take? – Is there a list of all occupations? Does it change? – What is a cognitive mediator? Cognitive scientist? – What is a smart service system? Service scientist? – What could possibly go wrong? 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 7
  • 8. 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 8 Mission: Cognitive Mediators for All Roles/Occupations
  • 9. What could possibly go wrong? 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 9
  • 10. 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 10
  • 11. 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 11
  • 12. Sciences provide… • Frameworks for people to ask and answer questions systematically • Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do” 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 12 Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking - “To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the world that is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.” Proenneke: Alone in the Wilderness - To do a thorough testing, should each generation be required to rapidly rebuild from scratch? A re-makers movement?
  • 13. In Summary 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 13 “A service science perspective considers the evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation and capability co-elevation interactions, and their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities.” Cognitive Systems Entities Service Systems Entities With Cognitive Mediators Add Rights & Responsibilities
  • 14. 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 14 Explain external phenomena
  • 15. 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 15 Explain internal phenomena
  • 16. 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 16 Explain value co-creation phenomena
  • 17. 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 17 Physics Chemistry Biology Neuroscience Psychology Artificial Intelligence Engineering Management Public Policy Education Design Humanities Natural Systems Cognitive Systems Service Systems
  • 18. Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap and co-create smarter service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens with cognitive mediators in the collaborative service economy
  • 19. 7/31/2015 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 19

Editor's Notes

  1. Better rules for making rules are needed. Technologies are getting easier to make, than new rules. Challenge of making better rules is in a word “Politics” – influencing other people to get things done, the concept of winners and losers…. How we motivate people to do the right things in the right way. Source: http://www.ted.com/talks/paul_romer?language=en
  2. By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
  3. Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine. However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
  4. The second hint – check out how many companies are working on cognitive assistants – and each month a new company shows up working on their version of an intelligent personal assistant. Make no mistake, like “magnetism” – the company the can first provide all its employees with intelligent personal assistants/cognitvie assistants will have done something quite historic! Prediction 1 – more than half of the Forbes Global 2000, and equally many new startups, will have cognitive assistant projects for their customers within ten years Prediction 2 – by 2035 we will be symbiotic with our cognitive assistants Prediction 3 – by 2055 (in part due to the coaching of our cognitive coaches) an average adult will have the ability to rapidly rebuild from scratch societal infrastructure Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_personal_assistant
  5. The first hint to who are you going to call in 2035 and 2055 is provided by this chart. Yes, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of chapr computing…. 2035 one brain, and by 2055 all human brains (10 billion people). Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000. Source: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html Was Moore’s Law inevitable? http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/
  6. Images Sources: http://www.preventionjustice.org/potent-partnerships-networks-of-people-living-with-hiv/
  7. This slides states the CSIG Mission (“Cognitive mediators for all roles/occupations in smart service systems”) and lists some of the most common questions related to the the CSIG mission statement.
  8. O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US Dept of Labor in the 1990’s – it now represents one of the most comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of information about each occupation, including skills, tasks, certifications, demand for these jobs, etc. O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to Zoologists – and many job families in between. O*NET updates the descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations over time. Source: http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=0
  9. What could possibly go wrong? Smart technologies make us dumber. Funny, he failed a test of trust, because he could not remember his wife’s cell phone number….. Image Source: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-smart-technology-can-make-us-dumb/
  10. What could possibly go wrong? Social technology makes us less social. Image Source: https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/1d/eb/5c/1deb5c1cf49a5dbb7689131f3cc8b9a9.jpg
  11. One solution is hard medicine – make sure someone can do something for themselves before doing it for them…. Image sources: http://www.raidz3ro.com/isaac-asimovs-three-laws-of-robotics-t-shirt.html http://cdn-media-2.lifehack.org/wp-content/files/2013/04/It-is-not-what-you-do-for-your-children-but-what-you-have-taught-them-to-do-for-themselves-that-will-make-them-successful-human-beings..jpg
  12. These concerns about what could possibly go wrong with cognitive mediators are real, so how can science help provide answers to help us make good choices in creating our future? Image sources: http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51oBLyAHXzL._SX327_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg Alone in the Wilderness (1968) – Dick Proenneke - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYJKd0rkKss
  13. Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena? Physics is the science that helps us understand the the external world – across many scales. Picture of star formation https://www.bnl.gov/science/physics.php
  14. Which is more important to explain external phenomena or internal phenomena? Cognitive science, including brain science, neuroscience, psychology and other areas, is the study of the internal world. Artificial intelligence is the science and engineering discipline trying to build smart machines – or what we at IBM call cognitive systems. Cognitive assistants are cognitive systems with capabilities of natural language, learning, and levels (of confidence) in recommendations to people trying to use them to make decisions, and some cognitive assistants have more than 3 L’s, they also have a 4th L – limbs – those cognitive assistants are robots. Picture of physics and the brain... http://medimoon.com/2014/04/drayson-foundation-donation-to-tackle-the-girls-in-physics-conundrum/
  15. However, at the end of the day, even with more creative and productive people…. With the 2035 symbiosis of people and their cognitive assistants, we are left trying to explain external phenomena and internal phenomena, as well as to create possible future worlds… The natural sciences of course include physics, chemistry, and biology. The cogntive science are not as well understood, but people are increasing aware of neuroscience (brain science), psychology, and artificial intelligence – which inform cognitive science. Finally, the least understood and newest is service science. Service science is the study of the evolving ecology of service sytem entities with capabilities, contraints, rights, and responsibilities – but also importantly with imagination! The humanities and fiction are a great source of possible future worlds. We just have to design and edcuate the next generation to engineer, manage, and set in place public policy that allows us to realize possible future worlds that we would like to live in. Source: Regis Lemmes http://www.slideshare.net/SalesCubes/sales-cocreation-35336385