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  • Please centre and cut the word old and put It has been onto a new line- could we make a consistent style for statements- maybe always in yellow, centred and growing? <br /> Please could we have some kind of outline of India in the background to make the slide prettier <br />
  • Could we use the script- does that fit with template? <br />
  • Could we have a line for the y axis as well as numbers <br /> Please animate all graphs so lines/bars and pie charts grow <br />
  • Again y axis <br />
  • Again line for y axis- is there a reason that the line is on green rather than orange? <br />
  • Line for y axis <br />
  • Y axis line <br /> Could we put text in white in a box of It– put Equals …..on its own line in yellow to make it more impactful <br />
  • Could we centre up the chart? <br />
  • Cut the word and and centre up. Could we either make the statement grow and/or make it into a different colour to make it more impactful? <br /> Or could we add an image – we have loads of India images <br />
  • Is it on brand to use script here? <br />
  • Could we add India image from file? <br /> Make yellow title bullet and white sub bullets <br />
  • Again could we add India image from file <br /> Same with bullets and sub bullets <br />
  • animate <br />
  • Centre up and change colour <br /> Grow as two separate statements <br />
  • Centre these up – maybe make a little bigger? <br />
  • These should be bullet points- image search Indian Policeman? <br />
  • Image of Delhi at night from Google or istock? <br />
  • Make bullets consistent <br />
  • Y axis as a line <br /> Please cut This means <br />
  • Make bullets consistent <br />
  • Animate graph <br />
  • Pic of Indian school kids? <br /> Consistent bullet points <br />
  • Please make a pie chart out of religious percentages <br /> Make bullet points out of last 3 points <br />
  • Could we find an Indian Elephant image? <br />

India's India's Presentation Transcript

  • INDIA’S FUTURE Or prosperity will spread in India but happiness will not, until we fix governance
  •  Where are we coming from?  Where are we today?  Where are we going in the future?
  • Even though the world has just discovered it, the India growth story is not new It has been going on for 25 years
  • What is the India story?
  • 28 years of high growth Average annual GDP growth (%) 10 8.9 8 6.0 6 3.5 4 2 1.0 0 1900-1950 1950-1980 1980-2002 2002-2007
  • Population growth is slowing (%) 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0 1901-1950 1951-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001)
  • Literacy is rising (%) 100 80 80 65 52 60 40 20 0 17 1950 Source: Census of India (2001) 1990 2000 2010 (proj)
  • When middle class is 50% then the politics will also change (m) 400 22% 32% 8% 368 300 200 220 100 0 65 1980 2000 Source: The Consuming Class, National Council of Applied Economic Research, 2002 2010
  • Poverty is declining (%) 50 40 1% of the people have been crossing poverty line each year for 25 years 46 30 26 20 16 10 0 Equals ~ 200m 1980 2000 2010
  • Per capita income gains US$ ppp 1,178 1980 3,051 Source: World Bank 2005
  • India is now the 4th largest economy It will overtake Japan between 2012 and 2014 to become the 3rd largest
  • The India model is unique
  • Drivers of growth India East and S.E. Asia ■ Domestic ■ Exports
  • Drivers of growth India East and S.E. Asia ■ Domestic ■ Exports ■ Services ■ Manufacturing
  • Drivers of growth India East and S.E. Asia ■ Domestic ■ Exports ■ Services ■ Manufacturing ■ Consumption ■ Investment
  • Drivers of growth India East and S.E. Asia ■ Domestic ■ Exports ■ Services ■ Manufacturing ■ Consumption ■ Investment ■ High tech, capital intensive industry ■ Low tech, labour intensive industry
  • Implications of India model ‘Domestically led’ means: ■ Insulation from global downturns ■ Less volatility ■ We will come out of the global crisis faster
  • Implication of India model ‘Services led’ raises uncomfortable questions: ■ Have we skipped the industrial revolution? ■ How do we take people from farms to cities? ■ Will SEZ’s be our tipping point?
  • Implication of India model – Consumption led People Friendly: Consumption as % of GDP 42% 64% People Friendly, Less inequality: Gini Index India 59% China 58% 33% India 41% Europe 45% China U.S. Brazil Will India become the next big consuming economy after the U.S.?
  • Reasons for success India’s success is market-led whereas China’s is state induced The entrepreneur is at the centre of the Indian model
  • Rise of globally competitive Indian companies
  • India has a vibrant private space ■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
  • India has a vibrant private space ■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn ■ 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment
  • India has a vibrant private space ■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn ■ 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment ■ 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India
  • India has a vibrant private space ■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn ■ 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment ■ 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India ■ 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India
  • India has a vibrant private space ■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn ■ 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment ■ 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India ■ 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India ■ 2% bad loans in Indian banks (v~20% in China)
  • India has a vibrant private space ■ 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn ■ 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment ■ 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India ■ 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India ■ 2% bad loans in Indian banks (v~20% in China) ■ 80% credit goes to private sector (v~10% in China)
  • Public space is a problem We have ■ Dynamic democracy with honest elections ■ Free, lively media and press But we also have Poor governance!
  • Governance Failures  Corrupt system  1 out of 4 school teachers absent in government schools  2 out of 5 doctors absent in primary health centers  Delhi’s water  Land titles  Etc
  • Ironically, we used to have world class institutions from 1950-1980, but our problem was growth. Now we have growth, but our institutions are failing ■ Bureaucracy ■ Judiciary ■ Police
  • The economy grows at night when the government is asleep
  • Key reforms ■ Opened economy to trade and investment ■ Dismantled controls ■ Lowered tariffs ■ Dropped tax rates ■ Broke public sector monopolies
  • Understanding India’s economic success  Remarkable --every government has reformed (slowly) since 1991  Even slow reforms add up  65 countries have done the same reforms – why did India become the second fastest in the world?  Unappreciated fact – rule of law
  • “By 2010 India will have world’s largest number of English speakers” “When 300 million Indians speak a word in a certain way, that will be the way to speak it.” Professor David Crystal Cambridge Encyclopedia of the English Language
  • Understanding India’s economic success ■ Mental revolution among the young ■ ‘I want to be Bilgay’ ■ Raju’s secret of success ■ Banianisation of society ■ 180 TV channels; 65 news channels ■ The rise of Hinglish
  • Where are we today?  Growth fell to 6.7% in 08-09; 7% in 09-10  Pain has been less than in China  Competitive companies have recovered faster.  Risk of protectionism has receded  Recovery has been ahead of the world
  • Where are we going? ■ Base case post recovery is 7.5 % – 8.5 % GDP growth ■ Democracy will not permit more than 8% unless you have a Thatcher ■ 1.5% population growth ■ Demographic dividend – growth will continue beyond China’s
  • Per capita income On a ppp basis ($000) 37,000 40 30 20 16,800 5,800 10 2,100 3,050 0 2000 2005 2020 2040 2066
  • Convergence in the 21st century ■ Why convergence is intuitive? ■ Convergence didn’t happen in the 20th century because the world was closed ■ Returning to a world of equality prior to 1750 ■ When China and India accounted for 45% of world GDP
  • India will gradually turn middle-class West of the KanpurChennai line East of the KanpurChennai line 50% 50% Kanpur- 32% 22% Chennai 8% 1980 2000 2010 2020 2040
  • What could stop the show? - Infrastructure - Improving via public-private parterships - Fiscal Deficit - Governance None of these stopped the show in the past 25 years - Nuclear War?
  • Education System Is reasonably good for the top 20% But it is abysmal for the rest ■ 1 in 4 teachers is absent in government primary schools ■ Hence, 54% of children in urban India are in private schools Solution: Education Vouchers
  • Caste system ■ Origin of India’s caste system ■ Classical four castes vs 3000 jatis ■ Hostage to competitive politics ■ Source of competitive advantage ■ Affirmative action
  • Role of Religion India’s pluralism, diversity and tolerance 2% 1% Hinduism ■ Spiritual entrepreneurialism: Gurus ■ No hierarchy: Every Brahmin thinks he is the Pope 12% ■ 300 million gods: Lack of theological narcissism ■ Nasadiya Temper 85% Hindu Muslim Sikh Christian
  • Elephant and not Tiger ■ India got democracy before capitalism and this has made all the difference ■ It is slower than China but its path is surer ■ However, an elephant at 8% growth is a formidable beast ■ We have waited 3000 years for this moment ■ India is more likely to preserve its way of life
  • The Wise Elephant