8 Exponential Trends That Will Shape Humanity: Century of the City State
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8 Exponential Trends That Will Shape Humanity: Century of the City State

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We live in a time of great abundance and unparalleled possibilities fueled by exponential growth from the impact of technology. Our job at sparks & honey is to understand the accelerators,......

We live in a time of great abundance and unparalleled possibilities fueled by exponential growth from the impact of technology. Our job at sparks & honey is to understand the accelerators, balancers and patterns that are driving exponential cultural change in the near term and foreseeable future.  Our team of cultural strategists and curators works with leading brands and thought leaders to apply these trends and use them as a catalyst for disruptive innovation.

We eat culture for breakfast in order to understand the value of emerging fringe signals, cultural shifts and explosive doubling patterns. While monitoring thousands of inputs and mapping and scoring them, we have identified 8 rapidly accelerating trends that will shape institutions, governments, businesses and everyday consumers.

We have consolidated these trends into short vignettes in order to share a curated snapshot of what will either create great opportunities or unexpected challenges. We will cover these 8 trends over the next few months. This report covers The Century of the City State. We hope you engage us in the debate and exploration on how these exponential trends will shape your business and the World. 

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  • Well done! Waiting for your next future prediction on education. Nevertheless, we are all victim of hindsight bias. Our ability to explain the past does not constitute our ability to predict the future. Hence, we should be realistic-futurist or futuristic-realist :)
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  • In an age of WMD, catastrophic hacking of utilities and super-empowered terrorist groups, global city states are the most non-resilient systems imaginable. They will require a lot of NSA type surveillance and 'droning' of perceived bad-guys to enjoy even the illusion of safety.

    Marc Hess
    http://www.linkedin.com/in/mrh2490
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  • @marinanash1 - shoot us an email and let us know what your trying to accomplish.
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  • Inspiring ideas, thank you.
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  • This is really well done, look forward to the installments on the other 7 exponential trends.
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  • 1. 8 Exponential Trends That Will Shape Humanity 1 of 8: Century of the City State Spring 2013
  • 2. ssibilities fueled by dance and unparalleled po un We live in a time of great ab job at sparks & honey is to e impact of technology. Our g exponential cultural exponential growth from th s and patterns that are drivin , balancer understand the accelerators ltural strategists and eable future.  Our team of cu forese s and use them change in the near term and t leaders to apply these trend brands and though curators works with leading novation. as a catalyst for disruptive in emerging fringe signals, r to understand the value of in orde nds of inputs We eat culture for breakfast rns. While monitoring thousa e doubling patte ting trends that will cultural shifts and explosiv identified 8 rapidly accelera em, we have and mapping and scoring th ay consumers. ments, businesses and everyd shape institutions, govern curated snapshot vignettes, in order to share a trends into short es. We will cover We have consolidated these ities or unexpected challeng t opportun y of the City State. We of what will either create grea This report covers The Centur w months. these trends over the next fe e exponential trends will and exploration on how thes bate hope you engage us in the de World.  shape your business and the will also continue in our t free reports. The discussion st of eigh Please enjoy and share this fir gthink/blogs/amped and - @sparksandhoney, www.bi core social channels ndhoney. www.facebook.com/sparksa
  • 3. Our global society has entered a period of accelerated change.
  • 4. These changes are happening rapidly, Vatican City 2005 Vatican City 2013
  • 5. reshaping entire industries, economic models and institutions.
  • 6. Our blind spot comes from the fact that we have lived in a linear world. But today’s changes are exponential. Exponential Linear
  • 7. $100M $10M With Exponential Change: $!M Cost Per Genome $100k $10k $1k 2001 Cost decreases Size decreases Performance increases Time compresses 2002 350 300 250 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 200 Price of IPhone in £ 150 100 50 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2012
  • 8. Remember, in 2005: “Facebook didn’t exist for most people, Twitter was still a sound, 4G was a parking space, and ‘Skype’ was a typo.” Source: Thomas Friedman, The World is Flat
  • 9. We’ve gone from this
  • 10. to this to this.
  • 11. No matter what your view of change-it’s inevitable that it will happen.
  • 12. Anticipating rapid transformation creates great opportunity.
  • 13. Century of the City State Future of Education Citizen Doctor 3D Printing We are tracking 8 exponential trends that will shape humanity. Quantified Everywhere Conscious Brands Ancient Wisdom Cyborg Marketing
  • 14. Century of the City State Future of Education Citizen Doctor 3D Printing Century of the City State Quantified Everywhere Conscious Brands Ancient Wisdom Cyborg Marketing
  • 15. A mega city is defined as a metropolitan area with a population in excess of 10 million people. There are 23 megacities in the world now. By 2025, the UN predicts there will be 37. Tokyo alone is forecasted to have over 37.2 million residents by 2025, more than live in Canada. These megacities are also known as "urban agglomerations" or "city states."
  • 16. Century of the City State The city state of the future offers a whole new way of living, as economies, communities, work, infrastructure and home are reconfigured as historic amounts of people consolidate into urban centers. The city state encompasses not only the city center, but the surrounding suburban areas that feed into the central business district. In fact, 60% of the the U.S. population lives in the suburbs. Population is just one defining factor of the city state. Clusters of innovators and influencers also create a critical mass of cultural capital that is leveraged by the area, its people and its businesses.
  • 17. century of the city state A Consolidation of Humanity: "Just over half the world now lives in cities but by 2050, over 70% of the world will be urban dwellers. By then, only 14% of people in rich countries will live outside cities, and 33% in poor countries." - United Nations
  • 18. century of the city state Powerful Economic Engines: As an example, the San Francisco Bay Area has a larger economy than that of Switzerland, Belgium, Taiwan and Sweden, among others (GDP of $535 billion).
  • 19. century of the city state Mayors Are the New Kings: Concentrated wealth, innovation and populations turn city states into highly influential centers which dictate policy and cultural shifts.
  • 20. century of the city state What is life like in the city state of the future?
  • 21. century of the city state 72% Of Americans say “the economic downturn has helped me prioritize what’s important in my life” Source: Yankelovich People will live in smaller spaces: With space at a premium, apartment sizes will shrink and become flexible, multi-purpose spaces. Graham Hill’s Life Edited apartment is a present day model of this concept.
  • 22. century of the city state Sustainable Living is a Must: From food to manufacturing, production moves locally as a way to build resilient communities that support themselves while maximizing resources and decreasing environmental impact. The countryside comes to the city, creating a “rurban” (rural urban) environment.
  • 23. century of the city state People Will Share Everything: Currently valued at $26 Billion, the sharing economy is becoming a standard part of life for many people. Expect it to be a part of everyone’s lives in the spacestarved world of the city state.
  • 24. century of the city state Infrastructure Becomes Decentralized: Drones are poised to fuel the next generation of delivery services. Experiments are being undertaken that aim to replace postal workers and newspaper delivery workers with drones.
  • 25. century of the city state 38% Of Americans have a side gig (freelancing, working a 2nd job or running their own business) Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Work Becomes Fragmented: With the rise of freelancing, portfolio careers made of multiple jobs, crowdsourcing, microentrepreneurship and task-based services, work becomes snack sized and sporadic, leading to a new structuring of time.
  • 26. century of the city state 61% Of Americans say “it is very important that I make a difference in my community” Source: Yankelovich The Sense of Community Strengthens: Organizations like miLES are trying to engage the community by filling empty commercial space with interesting businesses and organizations on short-term leases while the landlords wait for the right long-term tenants. Maker spaces and co-working offices are also filling this need for building community connections.
  • 27. century of the city state Transportation Becomes Automated: Automated cars and buses are becoming a reality now, and will become a standard part of life in the future city state. This reshaping of the transportation landscape makes life more efficient and opens up opportunities.
  • 28. century of the city state implications Think Smaller and Transformable: As consumers inhabit increasingly smaller spaces, products will need to be collapsable and more compact (think: folding electronics). Brands will be able to differentiate if they are transformer-like, multi-purpose and modular to fit into an edited and liquid lifestyle. Build Unique 3rd Space Communities: With space at home at a premium, residents of the city-state will need new places to go to work, play and commune. Retail will evolve into “third spaces” offering more entertainment and brands will take advantage of this by migrating online communities to real-world meet-up spaces. In addition, residents will need spaces to escape from urban life (either in country escapes near the city or digital/urban detox zones within). Plan to Rent it, Lend it and Trade it: As the “sharing economy” continues to explode, consumers will focus more on durability messages in marketing. Brands will also seize opportunities to drive secondarymarket value, possibly even creating the secondary marketplaces. Help Create the “Micro-Homestead”: From home micro-farming to power generation and food preservation, consumers will continue to take control of the basics. DIY will move from home-improvement to homesteading, as consumers seek ways to create healthier, self-sufficient lifestyles. This creates opportunities for brands to insinuate themselves into life’s necessities. Take an App Approach to Services: As work becomes more fragmented, people will need new and customized support services to maintain busy lives split between micro-careers, as well as help optimizing their micro living spaces. Brands will be able to make big impact by offering small but highly prized services. Job of the Future? Central Micro-Manufacturing Zone Planner CMZs (Central Micro-Manufacturing Zones) will replace Central Business Districts in cities, as small-scale micro-manufacturing is enabled by 3D printing and other technologies. As consumers seek on-demand and DIY “micro-manufacturing,” these small industries will find economies of scale by clustering together. Planners and managers of these zones will be sought after.
  • 29. Methodology At sparks & honey we track and analyze thousands of cultural data sources in real time, incorporating live data feeds from numerous APIs as well as hundreds of offline sources. Using a proprietary Culture Mapping Platform, we monitor cultural bursts, identify clusters of activity and trends, score their energy levels, project their lifespans and analyze their cultural resonance. This intelligence helps brands understand and connect with popular culture in order to make more strategically informed business decisions. Our platform incorporates three different frameworks to structure and contextualize raw data: CONTENT NETWORKS A mapping system used to model dynamic, interconnected webs of cultural activity. TOPIC CLUSTERS Significant groupings of manifestations which signify cultural waves and trends. MANIFESTATIONS Urban Farming Discrete data points that indicate change. ENERGY SCORE & PREDICTION SCORE DNA Digital Cities Share Everything The Energy Score is rated on a scale of 1-5. It reflects the speed of reach and volume of buzz, and incorporates a ranking of influencer activity that includes reach, resonance and relevance. The Prediction Score is rated on a scale of 1-40. It reflects anticipated duration of a trend. A unique set of attributes that describes the core concepts of each trend. ENERGY PREDICTION compact sharable cradle to cradle frictionless innovative 29
  • 30. We're covered in germs. Let's design for that. Designing A Delicious, InsectBased Food System Paris Employs Four Sheep to Keep the City’s Grass Mowed Dirty house? Clean it up with this trash-powered robot Local and Alternative Currencies Engineering Nature Why Robots Will — And Must — Take Our Jobs How Robots and Military-Grade Algorithms Make Same-Day Delivery Possible Robotic Workforce Millennials and the Recession Trends: Neo-Bartering, and QRewarding Alternative Currencies LIFE LOGIC CROWD IQ ROBOPOCALYPSE Do you Mealku? Potluck craze sweeps home kitchens Share Everything: Why the Way We Consume Has Changed Forever Share Everything A Hitchhiking App for the Sharing Economy Century of the City State Your Web Product May be coming to a locker near you Urban Planning Goes Digital in Spanish 'Smart City' FRICTIONLESS LIFE RURBAN Nature Deficit LIFE EDITED Digital Cities Startup Founder Wants To Replace The Postal System With Drones Urban Farming Automated Transportation 2022: Cheap flights, more rail and handsfree cars Century of the City States Topic Clusters Is Our Disconnect From Nature a Disorder? Volvo Cars Automatically Brake for Cyclists The New 3rd Spaces The Unintended (and Deadly) Consequences of Living in the Industrialized World Brooklyn Whole Foods Will Have A 20,000Square-Foot Rooftop Greenhouse Compact Living Can Aquaponics Change the Way We Eat? Living With Less. A Lot Less. The Rise of the Repair Cafe Will Co-Working Erode Demand for Office Space? Housing-starved cities seek relief in microapartments Content Network Topic Cluster Manifestation p.
  • 31. Century of the City State Future of Education Citizen Doctor 3D Printing Stay tuned for “The Future of Education,” the next installment in our “8 Exponential Trends That Will Shape Humanity” series. Follow us @sparksandhoney to keep up to date with our latest free reports. Quantified Everywhere Conscious Brands Ancient Wisdom Cyborg Marketing
  • 32. SPARKS & HONEY NAMED AS 1 OF 10 TOP AGENCIES TO WATCH IN 2014 BY ADAGE “This Omnicom-backed "newsroom"-oriented agency starts each morning with a cultural briefing for clients such as Hyatt, Jarden and Life is Good, for whom it developed six "culture-to-commerce" T-shirts. In 2013 it grew from two to 17 clients and quadrupled its staff to 20.”
  • 33. S&H CORE OFFERINGS CULTURAL STRATEGY CULTURAL INTELLIGENCE • Dd 1 Social & Cultural Listening Competitive Intelligence & War Gaming 4 Sn • Segment Analysis & Tracking • Topic Deep Dives • Issue Monitoring Fl Event Tracking • Sensor Network 7 Real-time Burst identification • Channel Analysis • Content & Influencer Strategy • Editorial & Cultural Calendars Sf Mi Micro Manufacturing Mg Mood Geisting Qe Second Skin H 2 8 Mg Mind Gaming 10 We Ne 17 Fq 2 Rs 9 Icognito 8 Focus Quotient • • Se Sharing Economy Hy 6 Ra Lm Na Living Matter Raw Ma 18 19 Hd Ie Hand Drawn Mashup Ru In 3 Ss 10 4 Mi 11 Rurban Us Immersive 360° Made in the USA R Rb Ecoboostering 13 St Moral Imperative Rise of the Believer Life Logic Crowd IQ Io Influencer Outreach Strangify 11 Insumer/Outsumer • Channel Optimization & Fan Base Development • Analytics & Measurement • 4 Provenance 6 • 8 Sm En • Nh • Rt • Pr Premiumization • Cx Product, Service & Packaging Development Codex Ax 10 Business Model Design & Reimagination Armchair Explorer 12 Bi Business Context Analysis Binge 14 Radical Transparency 15 Projecting Segments into the Future (Consumers of the Future) Memory Management New New Hollywood 13 Mm Enchanted Rc Snack Media Living Without Community Management 17 Lw 14 Oneness Ll 12 7 Macro Trend Identification & Quantification Shock & Transgress Refreshed Classics 1972 On Cq 6 9 Decay Flat Design Ec 5 • Ab St 2 Absurdism 7 72 22 Pl Play Dc 15 Fl 21 Social Media Content (short and long form) posts, tweets, vines, videos, blog, etc. 5 Tangible Intangible Gl Glitch Warm Technology 20 Ti Real Thing 14 • Space in the Air 3 8 Slow Perception Wt 13 Sa 1 Rt 1 Sp 7 Small-scaling Kidult Cc Convergence Culture Flattening Sm 6 INNOVATION 7 Ft 13 Exponentials Ki 12 Hyper Culture Real-Time Commerce Startup Society 16 Ex 12 Squealing 5 Ephemeral Inwards Restoration 15 Fh 11 Nano World Ic 1 Sq 11 Real-time Content Production Te 4 First Hand Look • Rr 5 Redefined Retirement Third Genger Modern Family Gc 10 De/re-materialization Cyborg Singularity 14 • Mf 10 Singletons 3 Neo-psychedelic Cs Power Woman Geek Chic D De 16 Wearables 12 Si 9 • Tg 4 Pre-Planned (70/30) Content Production Online and Off Line Hack Design 9 Pw 3 New Masculinity Ss 8 Quantified Everywhere Social Flares 11 13 • 6 Frictionless Life 9 • Nm 2 Unfat Generation Quantified Self Super Human 5 Qs Uf 1 Screen Culture Sh 3 Sc 2 Data Divinity • CONTENT & AMPLIFICATION Ob Futurism Open Brand 16 Le Whitespace Identification Life as Entertainment Real-Time Media Amplification • Brand/Partner & Acquisition Recommendations 47
  • 34. SYNCING BRANDS WITH CULTURE SIGN UP ON OUR WEBSITE TO RECEIVE UPDATES AND FUTURE REPORTS: sparksandhoney.com FOR MORE INFORMATION: 212.894.5100 info@sparksandhoney.com @sparksandhoney bigthink.com/blogs/amped facebook.com/sparksandhoney sparksandhoney.tumblr.com 48