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MOBILE The Dawning of ADVERTISING DEEPSPACE mobile
Mobile ads will  become a big business. DEEPSPACE mobile
Experts have predicted that over the next  5 years , mobile advertising will become a  $2 billion business . JupiterResearch, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become a $2 billion business.  JupiterResearch, 2008 Experts have predicted that over the next  5 years ,  mobile advertising will become a  $2.3 billion business . LocalMobileSearch, a subsidiary of Opus Research DEEPSPACE mobile
Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become a $2 billion business.  JupiterResearch, 2008 Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become $2.3 billion business.  LocalMobileSearch, a subsidiary of Opus Research Experts have predicted that over the next  4 years ,  mobile advertising will become a  $6 billion business . eMarketer DEEPSPACE mobile
Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become a $2 billion business.  JupiterResearch, 2008 Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become $2.3 billion business.  LocalMobileSearch, a subsidiary of Opus Research Experts have predicted that over the next 4 years, mobile advertising will become a $6 billion business.  eMarketer Experts have predicted that over the next  5 years ,  mobile advertising will become a  $6.5 billion business . Mobile Advertising: After the Growing Pains DEEPSPACE mobile
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… DEEPSPACE mobile
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… ,[object Object],five computers.”   DEEPSPACE mobile
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… ,[object Object],five computers.”   Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 DEEPSPACE mobile
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… ,[object Object],want a computer in their home.” DEEPSPACE mobile
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… ,[object Object],want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, president, chairman, and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 DEEPSPACE mobile
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… ,[object Object],need more than 640K of RAM.” DEEPSPACE mobile
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… ,[object Object],need more than 640K of RAM.” Bill Gates,  ~ 1982 DEEPSPACE mobile
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… ,[object Object],spectacularly supernova, and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” DEEPSPACE mobile
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… ,[object Object],spectacularly supernova, and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” Ethernet inventor and 3Com founder Bob Metcalfe, 1995 DEEPSPACE mobile
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… ,[object Object],has been invented.” DEEPSPACE mobile
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… ,[object Object],has been invented.” Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899 DEEPSPACE mobile
The mobile market is growing rapidly. Harris Interactive, 2008 40M Americans already browse on their phones. (but that’s less than 20% of users) 95M have internet access. DEEPSPACE mobile
But, mobile ad growth  has been painfully slow. DEEPSPACE mobile
While some users have mobile web  access, they don’t use it much. 6.4 sites per month vs. 100+ for fixed internet. Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
And, users perceive mobile ads to be an intrusion Little or no perceived value. Perception that the user is paying for the ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
Few people  claim  to be interested in mobile ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
On the other hand… DEEPSPACE mobile
And, other studies show users are interested in mobile ads. 56% of teens. 37% of adults. Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
But… they want to be compensated for viewing ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
But they want to be compensated for viewing ads. Teens want cash and freebies: Cash   (80%) Downloads  (61%) Music  (57% ) Minutes  (53%) Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
But they want to be compensated for viewing ads. Adults want freebies and coupons: Free minutes  (49%) Coupons  (37%) Free entertainment  (37%) Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
The question for you is when to enter the fray, and how DEEPSPACE mobile
What will determine winners and losers? What role will the carriers play? Will the political environment play a role? DEEPSPACE mobile
How does our company invest intelligently? Should we lead or fast-follow? How do we offset the death of the mass market? How do we protect our brand? 18% of marketers are already experimenting. JupiterResearch, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
What are the keys to success in mobile advertising? DEEPSPACE mobile
Mobile ad growth  has been painfully slow.. But why? DEEPSPACE mobile
Carriers are not  risk-takers. Dependent upon recurring revenue Few are willing to risk being first •  Churn is their biggest enemy DEEPSPACE mobile
Advertisers see little value. Most ads today are text/SMS Screens are typically small and resolution is poor Download speeds have been slow Video resolution has been poor •  Little impact •  But  69%  of adults and  64%  of teens claim to prefer text ads •  Only  47%  of teens and  35%  of adults want images in ads •  Acceptance of video ads dropped  10%  this year Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
Still, growth in the past 12 months has been 104%. From a small base, too. AdMob DEEPSPACE mobile
But, most users still do not have the right equipment. DEEPSPACE mobile
The growth is likely to accelerate, and  technology is  an ally. DEEPSPACE mobile
Mobile phones are  improving. Screen quality Video capability Location capability •  Matching people & places DEEPSPACE mobile
It began with the iPhone,  but is rapidly expanding. DEEPSPACE mobile
The iPhone serves as a  good case study. DEEPSPACE mobile
>30% of iPhone users  compared to  4.6%  of all users watched TV or videos – DEEPSPACE mobile
50% visited social  networking sites  compared to approx.  4%  of all users Almost DEEPSPACE mobile
30% visited YouTube vs.  1%  of all users Of those… DEEPSPACE mobile
59-85% of iPhone users search the web vs.  6.1%  of all users DEEPSPACE mobile
74% listened to music vs.  6.7%  of all users DEEPSPACE mobile
All of this  was on a  slow  cellular network. DEEPSPACE mobile
That is shifting. DEEPSPACE mobile
Networks are improving. HSDPA/ HSUPA CDMA Rev-A WiFi WiMax LTE DEEPSPACE mobile
What began with the iPhone, is rapidly expanding. Samsung Instinct Blackberry 9000 Treo 800 OpenMoko Neo LG Voyager DEEPSPACE mobile
Carriers know a lot  about their customers’  habits. DEEPSPACE mobile
New techniques are  available. Interstitial advertising DEEPSPACE mobile
And there is $$$ to be made. Social networks/internet sites Ad agencies Ad placement companies Carriers Advertisers DEEPSPACE mobile
Carriers must  differentiate or die. DEEPSPACE mobile
Majors are consolidating. Sprint / Nextel Verizon / Alltel AT&T / Cingular It’s still questionable whether all can survive. •  Sprint & T-Mobile are most vulnerable DEEPSPACE mobile
MVNOs are consolidating or disappearing as fast as they appear. Helio is saved by Virgin Mobile Amp’d & Movida disappear DEEPSPACE mobile
Price has always been a primary differentiator. Few admit it. Verizon  - The network Sprint  - Sprint speed AT&T  - Coverage (more bars in more places) DEEPSPACE mobile
Price has always been a primary differentiator. But everyone subsidizes phones. DEEPSPACE mobile
Price has always been a primary differentiator. A huge part of the spending is price-based ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
Price has always been a primary differentiator. Mobile ads may allow price differentiation. Likely the first reason for carriers to get excited. DEEPSPACE mobile
It’s happening in Europe. Blyk targets  only  the 16 to 24-year-old market.   Profiled based on lifestyles and interests. DEEPSPACE mobile
It’s happening in Europe. Free voice and data.   43 voice minutes and 217 texts a month per month. Provided customers accept ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
It’s happening in Europe. Blyk claims 29% click-through. Down from the 43% they claimed last November. DEEPSPACE mobile
It’s happening in Europe. Over 100,000 customers in the first 7 months. DEEPSPACE mobile
Blyk claims to be cost-effective. Are people buying or just clicking? Source:  E-consultancy, September 2007, trade estimates , February 2008. DEEPSPACE mobile Medium Avg. Response Rate (%) Cost/Response ($) Online Advertising 0.5 3.00 E-mail 2.5 4.00 Direct Mail 2.0 25.00 SMS Push 4.5 4.45 Blyk 29.0 1.06
Social trends will  also drive mobile  advertising. DEEPSPACE mobile
People want to be  connected. Facebook, MySpace, and about a dozen  copycats every month. All are testing mobility. DEEPSPACE mobile
Social trends will drive  devices that are optimized for mobile advertisers. Driving more feature-rich phones •  Picture phones •  Video capability •  Full keyboards and simplified text entry •  Voice input DEEPSPACE mobile
Likely to drive some  location-based service. DEEPSPACE mobile
All of this is likely to take  2-3 years to mature. DEEPSPACE mobile
Why will people  want mobile  advertising? DEEPSPACE mobile
May reduce the cost of phones / service. DEEPSPACE mobile
Location-aware Preference-aware Real-time comparison capability Advantage vs. any other media Or, if they believe it provides real value… and it can. •   E.g., buying a big-screen TV DEEPSPACE mobile
How will people want mobile advertising? DEEPSPACE mobile
SMS/Text Still Picture Video Appearance DEEPSPACE mobile
Search-driven Location-based Method DEEPSPACE mobile
Interstitial vs. featured DEEPSPACE mobile
Mobile apps can be  mobile advertising. DEEPSPACE mobile
Free sites may drive brand awareness. But users need a relevant reason to view the site,  and space is at a premium. •   Straight ads are unlikely to be effective DEEPSPACE mobile
Mobile apps can  drive revenue. Used correctly, they can also drive your brand. But beware of backlash if the site is not perceived to be worthwhile. DEEPSPACE mobile
Privacy may be a  “ black swan.” DEEPSPACE mobile
Privacy may be a  “ black swan, or the elephant in the room.” DEEPSPACE mobile
Is privacy a real consumer issue? DEEPSPACE mobile
Is privacy a real consumer issue? How many passwords do you have? DEEPSPACE mobile
Is privacy a real consumer issue? How many passwords do you have? How many of those sites have written privacy policies? How many of them have you read? DEEPSPACE mobile
Or a political issue? DEEPSPACE mobile
The black swan is now surfacing, and will extend the debate into the political arena. •  On August 1, 2008, the FCC sent a letter to cable companies. •  Demanding information on use of customer profiles to tailor advertising. •  Recipients included Comcast, Cox, AOL, AT&T, Yahoo!, Microsoft  and 27 others. DEEPSPACE mobile
May delay broad adoption, but is unlikely to stop it. •   Opt in/opt out But onerous restrictions could be imposed. The black swan is now surfacing, and will extend the debate into the political arena. DEEPSPACE mobile
Why begin spending today… … if the market will not really develop for several years? DEEPSPACE mobile
Why begin spending today? Define the key success factors before your competitors do •  Make mistakes early •  Radio to TV analogy Build a case for your ROI DEEPSPACE mobile
Can you test successfully? DEEPSPACE mobile
Can you test successfully? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],DEEPSPACE mobile
Mobile advertising  IS  likely to allow for testing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],DEEPSPACE mobile
Recommendations DEEPSPACE mobile
RECOMMENDATIONS Make mistakes now! DEEPSPACE mobile
RECOMMENDATIONS Recognize the risks. DEEPSPACE mobile
RECOMMENDATIONS Develop an ROI model. DEEPSPACE mobile
RECOMMENDATIONS Understand the keys to success in mobile advertising. DEEPSPACE mobile
RECOMMENDATIONS Look for opportunities to differentiate with partners. DEEPSPACE mobile
? Questions DEEPSPACE mobile

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Chuck Levine's Mobile Presentation

  • 1. MOBILE The Dawning of ADVERTISING DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 2. Mobile ads will become a big business. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 3. Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years , mobile advertising will become a $2 billion business . JupiterResearch, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 4. Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become a $2 billion business. JupiterResearch, 2008 Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years , mobile advertising will become a $2.3 billion business . LocalMobileSearch, a subsidiary of Opus Research DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 5. Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become a $2 billion business. JupiterResearch, 2008 Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become $2.3 billion business. LocalMobileSearch, a subsidiary of Opus Research Experts have predicted that over the next 4 years , mobile advertising will become a $6 billion business . eMarketer DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 6. Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become a $2 billion business. JupiterResearch, 2008 Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become $2.3 billion business. LocalMobileSearch, a subsidiary of Opus Research Experts have predicted that over the next 4 years, mobile advertising will become a $6 billion business. eMarketer Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years , mobile advertising will become a $6.5 billion business . Mobile Advertising: After the Growing Pains DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 7. And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… DEEPSPACE mobile
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  • 18. The mobile market is growing rapidly. Harris Interactive, 2008 40M Americans already browse on their phones. (but that’s less than 20% of users) 95M have internet access. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 19. But, mobile ad growth has been painfully slow. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 20. While some users have mobile web access, they don’t use it much. 6.4 sites per month vs. 100+ for fixed internet. Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 21. And, users perceive mobile ads to be an intrusion Little or no perceived value. Perception that the user is paying for the ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 22. Few people claim to be interested in mobile ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 23. On the other hand… DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 24. And, other studies show users are interested in mobile ads. 56% of teens. 37% of adults. Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 25. But… they want to be compensated for viewing ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 26. But they want to be compensated for viewing ads. Teens want cash and freebies: Cash (80%) Downloads (61%) Music (57% ) Minutes (53%) Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 27. But they want to be compensated for viewing ads. Adults want freebies and coupons: Free minutes (49%) Coupons (37%) Free entertainment (37%) Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 28. The question for you is when to enter the fray, and how DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 29. What will determine winners and losers? What role will the carriers play? Will the political environment play a role? DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 30. How does our company invest intelligently? Should we lead or fast-follow? How do we offset the death of the mass market? How do we protect our brand? 18% of marketers are already experimenting. JupiterResearch, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 31. What are the keys to success in mobile advertising? DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 32. Mobile ad growth has been painfully slow.. But why? DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 33. Carriers are not risk-takers. Dependent upon recurring revenue Few are willing to risk being first • Churn is their biggest enemy DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 34. Advertisers see little value. Most ads today are text/SMS Screens are typically small and resolution is poor Download speeds have been slow Video resolution has been poor • Little impact • But 69% of adults and 64% of teens claim to prefer text ads • Only 47% of teens and 35% of adults want images in ads • Acceptance of video ads dropped 10% this year Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 35. Still, growth in the past 12 months has been 104%. From a small base, too. AdMob DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 36. But, most users still do not have the right equipment. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 37. The growth is likely to accelerate, and technology is an ally. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 38. Mobile phones are improving. Screen quality Video capability Location capability • Matching people & places DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 39. It began with the iPhone, but is rapidly expanding. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 40. The iPhone serves as a good case study. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 41. >30% of iPhone users compared to 4.6% of all users watched TV or videos – DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 42. 50% visited social networking sites compared to approx. 4% of all users Almost DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 43. 30% visited YouTube vs. 1% of all users Of those… DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 44. 59-85% of iPhone users search the web vs. 6.1% of all users DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 45. 74% listened to music vs. 6.7% of all users DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 46. All of this was on a slow cellular network. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 47. That is shifting. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 48. Networks are improving. HSDPA/ HSUPA CDMA Rev-A WiFi WiMax LTE DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 49. What began with the iPhone, is rapidly expanding. Samsung Instinct Blackberry 9000 Treo 800 OpenMoko Neo LG Voyager DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 50. Carriers know a lot about their customers’ habits. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 51. New techniques are available. Interstitial advertising DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 52. And there is $$$ to be made. Social networks/internet sites Ad agencies Ad placement companies Carriers Advertisers DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 53. Carriers must differentiate or die. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 54. Majors are consolidating. Sprint / Nextel Verizon / Alltel AT&T / Cingular It’s still questionable whether all can survive. • Sprint & T-Mobile are most vulnerable DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 55. MVNOs are consolidating or disappearing as fast as they appear. Helio is saved by Virgin Mobile Amp’d & Movida disappear DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 56. Price has always been a primary differentiator. Few admit it. Verizon - The network Sprint - Sprint speed AT&T - Coverage (more bars in more places) DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 57. Price has always been a primary differentiator. But everyone subsidizes phones. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 58. Price has always been a primary differentiator. A huge part of the spending is price-based ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 59. Price has always been a primary differentiator. Mobile ads may allow price differentiation. Likely the first reason for carriers to get excited. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 60. It’s happening in Europe. Blyk targets only the 16 to 24-year-old market. Profiled based on lifestyles and interests. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 61. It’s happening in Europe. Free voice and data. 43 voice minutes and 217 texts a month per month. Provided customers accept ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 62. It’s happening in Europe. Blyk claims 29% click-through. Down from the 43% they claimed last November. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 63. It’s happening in Europe. Over 100,000 customers in the first 7 months. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 64. Blyk claims to be cost-effective. Are people buying or just clicking? Source: E-consultancy, September 2007, trade estimates , February 2008. DEEPSPACE mobile Medium Avg. Response Rate (%) Cost/Response ($) Online Advertising 0.5 3.00 E-mail 2.5 4.00 Direct Mail 2.0 25.00 SMS Push 4.5 4.45 Blyk 29.0 1.06
  • 65. Social trends will also drive mobile advertising. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 66. People want to be connected. Facebook, MySpace, and about a dozen copycats every month. All are testing mobility. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 67. Social trends will drive devices that are optimized for mobile advertisers. Driving more feature-rich phones • Picture phones • Video capability • Full keyboards and simplified text entry • Voice input DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 68. Likely to drive some location-based service. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 69. All of this is likely to take 2-3 years to mature. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 70. Why will people want mobile advertising? DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 71. May reduce the cost of phones / service. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 72. Location-aware Preference-aware Real-time comparison capability Advantage vs. any other media Or, if they believe it provides real value… and it can. • E.g., buying a big-screen TV DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 73. How will people want mobile advertising? DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 74. SMS/Text Still Picture Video Appearance DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 76. Interstitial vs. featured DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 77. Mobile apps can be mobile advertising. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 78. Free sites may drive brand awareness. But users need a relevant reason to view the site, and space is at a premium. • Straight ads are unlikely to be effective DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 79. Mobile apps can drive revenue. Used correctly, they can also drive your brand. But beware of backlash if the site is not perceived to be worthwhile. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 80. Privacy may be a “ black swan.” DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 81. Privacy may be a “ black swan, or the elephant in the room.” DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 82. Is privacy a real consumer issue? DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 83. Is privacy a real consumer issue? How many passwords do you have? DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 84. Is privacy a real consumer issue? How many passwords do you have? How many of those sites have written privacy policies? How many of them have you read? DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 85. Or a political issue? DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 86. The black swan is now surfacing, and will extend the debate into the political arena. • On August 1, 2008, the FCC sent a letter to cable companies. • Demanding information on use of customer profiles to tailor advertising. • Recipients included Comcast, Cox, AOL, AT&T, Yahoo!, Microsoft and 27 others. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 87. May delay broad adoption, but is unlikely to stop it. • Opt in/opt out But onerous restrictions could be imposed. The black swan is now surfacing, and will extend the debate into the political arena. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 88. Why begin spending today… … if the market will not really develop for several years? DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 89. Why begin spending today? Define the key success factors before your competitors do • Make mistakes early • Radio to TV analogy Build a case for your ROI DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 90. Can you test successfully? DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 91.
  • 92.
  • 94. RECOMMENDATIONS Make mistakes now! DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 95. RECOMMENDATIONS Recognize the risks. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 96. RECOMMENDATIONS Develop an ROI model. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 97. RECOMMENDATIONS Understand the keys to success in mobile advertising. DEEPSPACE mobile
  • 98. RECOMMENDATIONS Look for opportunities to differentiate with partners. DEEPSPACE mobile