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MOBILE The Dawning of ADVERTISING DEEPSPACE mobile
Mobile ads will  become a big business. DEEPSPACE mobile
Experts have predicted that over the next  5 years , mobile advertising will become a  $2 billion business . JupiterResear...
Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become a $2 billion business.  JupiterResearch,...
Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become a $2 billion business.  JupiterResearch,...
Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become a $2 billion business.  JupiterResearch,...
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… DEEPSPACE mobile
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ There is a world market for maybe </li></ul>five computers.”   D...
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ There is a world market for maybe </li></ul>five computers.”   T...
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ There is no reason anyone would </li></ul>want a computer in the...
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ There is no reason anyone would </li></ul>want a computer in the...
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ No one,” he declared, “will ever </li></ul>need more than 640K o...
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ No one,” he declared, “will ever </li></ul>need more than 640K o...
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ I predict the Internet will soon go </li></ul>spectacularly supe...
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ I predict the Internet will soon go </li></ul>spectacularly supe...
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ Everything that can be invented </li></ul>has been invented.” DE...
And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ Everything that can be invented </li></ul>has been invented.” Ch...
The mobile market is growing rapidly. Harris Interactive, 2008 40M Americans already browse on their phones. (but that’s l...
But, mobile ad growth  has been painfully slow. DEEPSPACE mobile
While some users have mobile web  access, they don’t use it much. 6.4 sites per month vs. 100+ for fixed internet. Harris ...
And, users perceive mobile ads to be an intrusion Little or no perceived value. Perception that the user is paying for the...
Few people  claim  to be interested in mobile ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
On the other hand… DEEPSPACE mobile
And, other studies show users are interested in mobile ads. 56% of teens. 37% of adults. Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPAC...
But… they want to be compensated for viewing ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
But they want to be compensated for viewing ads. Teens want cash and freebies: Cash   (80%) Downloads  (61%) Music  (57% )...
But they want to be compensated for viewing ads. Adults want freebies and coupons: Free minutes  (49%) Coupons  (37%) Free...
The question for you is when to enter the fray, and how DEEPSPACE mobile
What will determine winners and losers? What role will the carriers play? Will the political environment play a role? DEEP...
How does our company invest intelligently? Should we lead or fast-follow? How do we offset the death of the mass market? H...
What are the keys to success in mobile advertising? DEEPSPACE mobile
Mobile ad growth  has been painfully slow.. But why? DEEPSPACE mobile
Carriers are not  risk-takers. Dependent upon recurring revenue Few are willing to risk being first •  Churn is their bigg...
Advertisers see little value. Most ads today are text/SMS Screens are typically small and resolution is poor Download spee...
Still, growth in the past 12 months has been 104%. From a small base, too. AdMob DEEPSPACE mobile
But, most users still do not have the right equipment. DEEPSPACE mobile
The growth is likely to accelerate, and  technology is  an ally. DEEPSPACE mobile
Mobile phones are  improving. Screen quality Video capability Location capability •  Matching people & places DEEPSPACE mo...
It began with the iPhone,  but is rapidly expanding. DEEPSPACE mobile
The iPhone serves as a  good case study. DEEPSPACE mobile
>30% of iPhone users  compared to  4.6%  of all users watched TV or videos – DEEPSPACE mobile
50% visited social  networking sites  compared to approx.  4%  of all users Almost DEEPSPACE mobile
30% visited YouTube vs.  1%  of all users Of those… DEEPSPACE mobile
59-85% of iPhone users search the web vs.  6.1%  of all users DEEPSPACE mobile
74% listened to music vs.  6.7%  of all users DEEPSPACE mobile
All of this  was on a  slow  cellular network. DEEPSPACE mobile
That is shifting. DEEPSPACE mobile
Networks are improving. HSDPA/ HSUPA CDMA Rev-A WiFi WiMax LTE DEEPSPACE mobile
What began with the iPhone, is rapidly expanding. Samsung Instinct Blackberry 9000 Treo 800 OpenMoko Neo LG Voyager DEEPSP...
Carriers know a lot  about their customers’  habits. DEEPSPACE mobile
New techniques are  available. Interstitial advertising DEEPSPACE mobile
And there is $$$ to be made. Social networks/internet sites Ad agencies Ad placement companies Carriers Advertisers DEEPSP...
Carriers must  differentiate or die. DEEPSPACE mobile
Majors are consolidating. Sprint / Nextel Verizon / Alltel AT&T / Cingular It’s still questionable whether all can survive...
MVNOs are consolidating or disappearing as fast as they appear. Helio is saved by Virgin Mobile Amp’d & Movida disappear D...
Price has always been a primary differentiator. Few admit it. Verizon  - The network Sprint  - Sprint speed AT&T  - Covera...
Price has always been a primary differentiator. But everyone subsidizes phones. DEEPSPACE mobile
Price has always been a primary differentiator. A huge part of the spending is price-based ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
Price has always been a primary differentiator. Mobile ads may allow price differentiation. Likely the first reason for ca...
It’s happening in Europe. Blyk targets  only  the 16 to 24-year-old market.   Profiled based on lifestyles and interests. ...
It’s happening in Europe. Free voice and data.   43 voice minutes and 217 texts a month per month. Provided customers acce...
It’s happening in Europe. Blyk claims 29% click-through. Down from the 43% they claimed last November. DEEPSPACE mobile
It’s happening in Europe. Over 100,000 customers in the first 7 months. DEEPSPACE mobile
Blyk claims to be cost-effective. Are people buying or just clicking? Source:  E-consultancy, September 2007, trade estima...
Social trends will  also drive mobile  advertising. DEEPSPACE mobile
People want to be  connected. Facebook, MySpace, and about a dozen  copycats every month. All are testing mobility. DEEPSP...
Social trends will drive  devices that are optimized for mobile advertisers. Driving more feature-rich phones •  Picture p...
Likely to drive some  location-based service. DEEPSPACE mobile
All of this is likely to take  2-3 years to mature. DEEPSPACE mobile
Why will people  want mobile  advertising? DEEPSPACE mobile
May reduce the cost of phones / service. DEEPSPACE mobile
Location-aware Preference-aware Real-time comparison capability Advantage vs. any other media Or, if they believe it provi...
How will people want mobile advertising? DEEPSPACE mobile
SMS/Text Still Picture Video Appearance DEEPSPACE mobile
Search-driven Location-based Method DEEPSPACE mobile
Interstitial vs. featured DEEPSPACE mobile
Mobile apps can be  mobile advertising. DEEPSPACE mobile
Free sites may drive brand awareness. But users need a relevant reason to view the site,  and space is at a premium. •   S...
Mobile apps can  drive revenue. Used correctly, they can also drive your brand. But beware of backlash if the site is not ...
Privacy may be a  “ black swan.” DEEPSPACE mobile
Privacy may be a  “ black swan, or the elephant in the room.” DEEPSPACE mobile
Is privacy a real consumer issue? DEEPSPACE mobile
Is privacy a real consumer issue? How many passwords do you have? DEEPSPACE mobile
Is privacy a real consumer issue? How many passwords do you have? How many of those sites have written privacy policies? H...
Or a political issue? DEEPSPACE mobile
The black swan is now surfacing, and will extend the debate into the political arena. •  On August 1, 2008, the FCC sent a...
May delay broad adoption, but is unlikely to stop it. •   Opt in/opt out But onerous restrictions could be imposed. The bl...
Why begin spending today… … if the market will not really develop for several years? DEEPSPACE mobile
Why begin spending today? Define the key success factors before your competitors do •  Make mistakes early •  Radio to TV ...
Can you test successfully? DEEPSPACE mobile
Can you test successfully? <ul><li>Testing has been challenging in the mobile market </li></ul><ul><li>The market has move...
Mobile advertising  IS  likely to allow for testing <ul><li>Mobile advertising is less likely to move at the </li></ul><ul...
Recommendations DEEPSPACE mobile
RECOMMENDATIONS Make mistakes now! DEEPSPACE mobile
RECOMMENDATIONS Recognize the risks. DEEPSPACE mobile
RECOMMENDATIONS Develop an ROI model. DEEPSPACE mobile
RECOMMENDATIONS Understand the keys to success in mobile advertising. DEEPSPACE mobile
RECOMMENDATIONS Look for opportunities to differentiate with partners. DEEPSPACE mobile
? Questions DEEPSPACE mobile
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Chuck Levine's Mobile Presentation

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  • I like those expert predictions!!!
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  • Great job on this presentation. Very fluid storytelling.
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  • Great presentation. I can't emphasize enough the importance of compensation for the mobile phone owner.

    My company -- Sayso ( http://www.saysomobile.com ) -- Allows U.S. advertisers to send targeted mobile ads to a permission-ready list of Sayso subscribers. Subscribers are compensated with cash and relevant messages.

    It's similar to Blyk's model, but we allow advertisers to set a delivery price per individual recipient that matches their budget and margins. Learn more >> http://www.saysomobile.com
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Transcript of "Chuck Levine's Mobile Presentation"

  1. 1. MOBILE The Dawning of ADVERTISING DEEPSPACE mobile
  2. 2. Mobile ads will become a big business. DEEPSPACE mobile
  3. 3. Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years , mobile advertising will become a $2 billion business . JupiterResearch, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
  4. 4. Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become a $2 billion business. JupiterResearch, 2008 Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years , mobile advertising will become a $2.3 billion business . LocalMobileSearch, a subsidiary of Opus Research DEEPSPACE mobile
  5. 5. Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become a $2 billion business. JupiterResearch, 2008 Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become $2.3 billion business. LocalMobileSearch, a subsidiary of Opus Research Experts have predicted that over the next 4 years , mobile advertising will become a $6 billion business . eMarketer DEEPSPACE mobile
  6. 6. Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become a $2 billion business. JupiterResearch, 2008 Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years, mobile advertising will become $2.3 billion business. LocalMobileSearch, a subsidiary of Opus Research Experts have predicted that over the next 4 years, mobile advertising will become a $6 billion business. eMarketer Experts have predicted that over the next 5 years , mobile advertising will become a $6.5 billion business . Mobile Advertising: After the Growing Pains DEEPSPACE mobile
  7. 7. And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… DEEPSPACE mobile
  8. 8. And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ There is a world market for maybe </li></ul>five computers.” DEEPSPACE mobile
  9. 9. And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ There is a world market for maybe </li></ul>five computers.” Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 DEEPSPACE mobile
  10. 10. And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ There is no reason anyone would </li></ul>want a computer in their home.” DEEPSPACE mobile
  11. 11. And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ There is no reason anyone would </li></ul>want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, president, chairman, and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 DEEPSPACE mobile
  12. 12. And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ No one,” he declared, “will ever </li></ul>need more than 640K of RAM.” DEEPSPACE mobile
  13. 13. And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ No one,” he declared, “will ever </li></ul>need more than 640K of RAM.” Bill Gates, ~ 1982 DEEPSPACE mobile
  14. 14. And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ I predict the Internet will soon go </li></ul>spectacularly supernova, and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” DEEPSPACE mobile
  15. 15. And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ I predict the Internet will soon go </li></ul>spectacularly supernova, and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” Ethernet inventor and 3Com founder Bob Metcalfe, 1995 DEEPSPACE mobile
  16. 16. And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ Everything that can be invented </li></ul>has been invented.” DEEPSPACE mobile
  17. 17. And everyone knows how accurate experts can be… <ul><li>“ Everything that can be invented </li></ul>has been invented.” Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899 DEEPSPACE mobile
  18. 18. The mobile market is growing rapidly. Harris Interactive, 2008 40M Americans already browse on their phones. (but that’s less than 20% of users) 95M have internet access. DEEPSPACE mobile
  19. 19. But, mobile ad growth has been painfully slow. DEEPSPACE mobile
  20. 20. While some users have mobile web access, they don’t use it much. 6.4 sites per month vs. 100+ for fixed internet. Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
  21. 21. And, users perceive mobile ads to be an intrusion Little or no perceived value. Perception that the user is paying for the ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
  22. 22. Few people claim to be interested in mobile ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
  23. 23. On the other hand… DEEPSPACE mobile
  24. 24. And, other studies show users are interested in mobile ads. 56% of teens. 37% of adults. Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
  25. 25. But… they want to be compensated for viewing ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
  26. 26. But they want to be compensated for viewing ads. Teens want cash and freebies: Cash (80%) Downloads (61%) Music (57% ) Minutes (53%) Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
  27. 27. But they want to be compensated for viewing ads. Adults want freebies and coupons: Free minutes (49%) Coupons (37%) Free entertainment (37%) Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
  28. 28. The question for you is when to enter the fray, and how DEEPSPACE mobile
  29. 29. What will determine winners and losers? What role will the carriers play? Will the political environment play a role? DEEPSPACE mobile
  30. 30. How does our company invest intelligently? Should we lead or fast-follow? How do we offset the death of the mass market? How do we protect our brand? 18% of marketers are already experimenting. JupiterResearch, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
  31. 31. What are the keys to success in mobile advertising? DEEPSPACE mobile
  32. 32. Mobile ad growth has been painfully slow.. But why? DEEPSPACE mobile
  33. 33. Carriers are not risk-takers. Dependent upon recurring revenue Few are willing to risk being first • Churn is their biggest enemy DEEPSPACE mobile
  34. 34. Advertisers see little value. Most ads today are text/SMS Screens are typically small and resolution is poor Download speeds have been slow Video resolution has been poor • Little impact • But 69% of adults and 64% of teens claim to prefer text ads • Only 47% of teens and 35% of adults want images in ads • Acceptance of video ads dropped 10% this year Harris Interactive, 2008 DEEPSPACE mobile
  35. 35. Still, growth in the past 12 months has been 104%. From a small base, too. AdMob DEEPSPACE mobile
  36. 36. But, most users still do not have the right equipment. DEEPSPACE mobile
  37. 37. The growth is likely to accelerate, and technology is an ally. DEEPSPACE mobile
  38. 38. Mobile phones are improving. Screen quality Video capability Location capability • Matching people & places DEEPSPACE mobile
  39. 39. It began with the iPhone, but is rapidly expanding. DEEPSPACE mobile
  40. 40. The iPhone serves as a good case study. DEEPSPACE mobile
  41. 41. >30% of iPhone users compared to 4.6% of all users watched TV or videos – DEEPSPACE mobile
  42. 42. 50% visited social networking sites compared to approx. 4% of all users Almost DEEPSPACE mobile
  43. 43. 30% visited YouTube vs. 1% of all users Of those… DEEPSPACE mobile
  44. 44. 59-85% of iPhone users search the web vs. 6.1% of all users DEEPSPACE mobile
  45. 45. 74% listened to music vs. 6.7% of all users DEEPSPACE mobile
  46. 46. All of this was on a slow cellular network. DEEPSPACE mobile
  47. 47. That is shifting. DEEPSPACE mobile
  48. 48. Networks are improving. HSDPA/ HSUPA CDMA Rev-A WiFi WiMax LTE DEEPSPACE mobile
  49. 49. What began with the iPhone, is rapidly expanding. Samsung Instinct Blackberry 9000 Treo 800 OpenMoko Neo LG Voyager DEEPSPACE mobile
  50. 50. Carriers know a lot about their customers’ habits. DEEPSPACE mobile
  51. 51. New techniques are available. Interstitial advertising DEEPSPACE mobile
  52. 52. And there is $$$ to be made. Social networks/internet sites Ad agencies Ad placement companies Carriers Advertisers DEEPSPACE mobile
  53. 53. Carriers must differentiate or die. DEEPSPACE mobile
  54. 54. Majors are consolidating. Sprint / Nextel Verizon / Alltel AT&T / Cingular It’s still questionable whether all can survive. • Sprint & T-Mobile are most vulnerable DEEPSPACE mobile
  55. 55. MVNOs are consolidating or disappearing as fast as they appear. Helio is saved by Virgin Mobile Amp’d & Movida disappear DEEPSPACE mobile
  56. 56. Price has always been a primary differentiator. Few admit it. Verizon - The network Sprint - Sprint speed AT&T - Coverage (more bars in more places) DEEPSPACE mobile
  57. 57. Price has always been a primary differentiator. But everyone subsidizes phones. DEEPSPACE mobile
  58. 58. Price has always been a primary differentiator. A huge part of the spending is price-based ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
  59. 59. Price has always been a primary differentiator. Mobile ads may allow price differentiation. Likely the first reason for carriers to get excited. DEEPSPACE mobile
  60. 60. It’s happening in Europe. Blyk targets only the 16 to 24-year-old market. Profiled based on lifestyles and interests. DEEPSPACE mobile
  61. 61. It’s happening in Europe. Free voice and data. 43 voice minutes and 217 texts a month per month. Provided customers accept ads. DEEPSPACE mobile
  62. 62. It’s happening in Europe. Blyk claims 29% click-through. Down from the 43% they claimed last November. DEEPSPACE mobile
  63. 63. It’s happening in Europe. Over 100,000 customers in the first 7 months. DEEPSPACE mobile
  64. 64. Blyk claims to be cost-effective. Are people buying or just clicking? Source: E-consultancy, September 2007, trade estimates , February 2008. DEEPSPACE mobile Medium Avg. Response Rate (%) Cost/Response ($) Online Advertising 0.5 3.00 E-mail 2.5 4.00 Direct Mail 2.0 25.00 SMS Push 4.5 4.45 Blyk 29.0 1.06
  65. 65. Social trends will also drive mobile advertising. DEEPSPACE mobile
  66. 66. People want to be connected. Facebook, MySpace, and about a dozen copycats every month. All are testing mobility. DEEPSPACE mobile
  67. 67. Social trends will drive devices that are optimized for mobile advertisers. Driving more feature-rich phones • Picture phones • Video capability • Full keyboards and simplified text entry • Voice input DEEPSPACE mobile
  68. 68. Likely to drive some location-based service. DEEPSPACE mobile
  69. 69. All of this is likely to take 2-3 years to mature. DEEPSPACE mobile
  70. 70. Why will people want mobile advertising? DEEPSPACE mobile
  71. 71. May reduce the cost of phones / service. DEEPSPACE mobile
  72. 72. Location-aware Preference-aware Real-time comparison capability Advantage vs. any other media Or, if they believe it provides real value… and it can. • E.g., buying a big-screen TV DEEPSPACE mobile
  73. 73. How will people want mobile advertising? DEEPSPACE mobile
  74. 74. SMS/Text Still Picture Video Appearance DEEPSPACE mobile
  75. 75. Search-driven Location-based Method DEEPSPACE mobile
  76. 76. Interstitial vs. featured DEEPSPACE mobile
  77. 77. Mobile apps can be mobile advertising. DEEPSPACE mobile
  78. 78. Free sites may drive brand awareness. But users need a relevant reason to view the site, and space is at a premium. • Straight ads are unlikely to be effective DEEPSPACE mobile
  79. 79. Mobile apps can drive revenue. Used correctly, they can also drive your brand. But beware of backlash if the site is not perceived to be worthwhile. DEEPSPACE mobile
  80. 80. Privacy may be a “ black swan.” DEEPSPACE mobile
  81. 81. Privacy may be a “ black swan, or the elephant in the room.” DEEPSPACE mobile
  82. 82. Is privacy a real consumer issue? DEEPSPACE mobile
  83. 83. Is privacy a real consumer issue? How many passwords do you have? DEEPSPACE mobile
  84. 84. Is privacy a real consumer issue? How many passwords do you have? How many of those sites have written privacy policies? How many of them have you read? DEEPSPACE mobile
  85. 85. Or a political issue? DEEPSPACE mobile
  86. 86. The black swan is now surfacing, and will extend the debate into the political arena. • On August 1, 2008, the FCC sent a letter to cable companies. • Demanding information on use of customer profiles to tailor advertising. • Recipients included Comcast, Cox, AOL, AT&T, Yahoo!, Microsoft and 27 others. DEEPSPACE mobile
  87. 87. May delay broad adoption, but is unlikely to stop it. • Opt in/opt out But onerous restrictions could be imposed. The black swan is now surfacing, and will extend the debate into the political arena. DEEPSPACE mobile
  88. 88. Why begin spending today… … if the market will not really develop for several years? DEEPSPACE mobile
  89. 89. Why begin spending today? Define the key success factors before your competitors do • Make mistakes early • Radio to TV analogy Build a case for your ROI DEEPSPACE mobile
  90. 90. Can you test successfully? DEEPSPACE mobile
  91. 91. Can you test successfully? <ul><li>Testing has been challenging in the mobile market </li></ul><ul><li>The market has moved quickly, and with seismic force </li></ul><ul><ul><li>• Bundled pricing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>• Free handsets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>• RF technology rollouts – 2G/ 3G </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Find the right partners to begin testing </li></ul>DEEPSPACE mobile
  92. 92. Mobile advertising IS likely to allow for testing <ul><li>Mobile advertising is less likely to move at the </li></ul><ul><li>speed of technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>• Social trends are slower than technology trends </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>• Bad news for mobile ad networks and agencies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>•  Good news for advertisers who start early </li></ul></ul>DEEPSPACE mobile
  93. 93. Recommendations DEEPSPACE mobile
  94. 94. RECOMMENDATIONS Make mistakes now! DEEPSPACE mobile
  95. 95. RECOMMENDATIONS Recognize the risks. DEEPSPACE mobile
  96. 96. RECOMMENDATIONS Develop an ROI model. DEEPSPACE mobile
  97. 97. RECOMMENDATIONS Understand the keys to success in mobile advertising. DEEPSPACE mobile
  98. 98. RECOMMENDATIONS Look for opportunities to differentiate with partners. DEEPSPACE mobile
  99. 99. ? Questions DEEPSPACE mobile
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