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NTSB Meteorologist, Donald Eick, talks about how important understanding weather is in safely planning and executing general aviation flight operations

NTSB Meteorologist, Donald Eick, talks about how important understanding weather is in safely planning and executing general aviation flight operations

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  • Coding structure developed by the ICAO Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) to describe the important circumstances of aviation accidents, rather than the probable cause.
  • Update to match March 31, 2011 thunderstorm event at 1800Z for Sun ‘n’ Fun

NTSB presents: Weatherwise Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Office of Aviation SafetyWeather WiseDonald Eick & Paul SuffernNTSB Meteorologists
  • 2. 2Two Feetof Snow
  • 3. 3• Review Part 91 accident statisticsReview Part 91 accident statistics– Main weather threat areasMain weather threat areas– ThunderstormsThunderstorms• Making weather wise decisionsMaking weather wise decisions– Preflight weather briefingPreflight weather briefing– Utilizing briefing sourcesUtilizing briefing sources– UpdatesUpdates– Weather in the cockpitWeather in the cockpitTopics that will be discussed:Topics that will be discussed:
  • 4. 4NTSB Accident Statistics• 4,958 accidents• 1,641 fatalities• Weather wascited as a causeor factor in over20% of theseaccidents
  • 5. 5NTSB Study 2007-2009• > 60% Part 91 accidents involvedpersonal flights with fixed-wing aircraft• Major CAST defining events:– Loss of control in flight/ground (LOC)– Abnormal runway contact– Controlled flight into terrain– Unintended flight into IMC– Thunderstorms/Windshear
  • 6. 6Part 91 Weather Related Accidents2007-2009
  • 7. 7Part 91 Weather Related Accidents• Leading weather factors:– Adverse winds– Low ceilings & visibility– High density altitude– Aircraft icing; includes carburetor icing– Turbulence– Thunderstorms– Windshear– Precipitation; rain, snow, drizzle/mist, hail
  • 8. 8ADVERSE WINDSACCOUNTS FOR ~52% OF WEATHERACCOUNTS FOR ~52% OF WEATHERRELATED ACCIDENTS:RELATED ACCIDENTS:• HIGH WINDHIGH WIND• CROSSWINDCROSSWIND• TAILWINDTAILWIND• GUSTSGUSTS• WIND SHIFTSWIND SHIFTS• VARIABLE WINDVARIABLE WIND
  • 9. 9Weather Related AccidentsWeather related accidents have one ofWeather related accidents have one ofthe highest fatality rates!the highest fatality rates!
  • 10. 10Unfavorable Winds & High Density AltitudeLAX07FA258Quartering crosswind & tailwind
  • 11. 11Fatal 2Fatal 2Serious 2Serious 2LAX07FA258Cameron Park, CAAug 30, 2007
  • 12. 12Before you launch, get apreflight briefing!
  • 13. 13Preflight PlanningNTSB study 41% of the weather relatedNTSB study 41% of the weather relatedaccidents the pilot did not obtain oraccidents the pilot did not obtain orreceived an adequate weather briefingreceived an adequate weather briefing
  • 14. 14“I looked at the destination forecast and itindicated VFR conditions?”Departure Destination• What about the en route conditions?• When was the forecast issued?• Any adverse weather predicted?• What’s in the surrounding area?
  • 15. 15Say… what’s a mountain goat doingSay… what’s a mountain goat doingway up here in a cloud bank?way up here in a cloud bank?
  • 16. 16FOGNot a violent or dynamic weather eventNot a violent or dynamic weather event!!Most common cause of Part 91 weather relatedMost common cause of Part 91 weather relatedfatalities - VFR into IMC conditions.fatalities - VFR into IMC conditions.Number 1 cause of ATC delaysNumber 1 cause of ATC delaysCommon factor in runway incursion incidents &Common factor in runway incursion incidents &accidents.accidents.Common factor in Part 135/121 CFIT accidentsCommon factor in Part 135/121 CFIT accidentsFlight crew not adhering to standard instrumentFlight crew not adhering to standard instrumentapproach procedures.approach procedures.Low Ceilings & Visibility
  • 17. 17What was the worst aviationaccident in history?
  • 18. 18Worst Aircraft Accident in HistoryKLM Flight 4805/Pan Am Flight 1736KLM Flight 4805/Pan Am Flight 1736Los Rodeos Airport, TenerifeLos Rodeos Airport, TenerifeMarch 27, 1977March 27, 1977
  • 19. 19Tenerife, Canary IslandsPan Am and KLM B747’sMarch 22, 1977583 fatalities
  • 20. 20VFR into IMCVFR into IMC
  • 21. 21ERA09LA392RV7A, N774USSanderson, FLJuly 8, 2009• Non-instrument rated pilot• Departed VFR cross country to pickup friendand fly back to Sun City, FL• No flight plan or preflight briefing• Departure/destination - VFR
  • 22. 22ERA09LA392 – Sanderson, FL• Current conditions:– Stationary front– Convective activity• Encountered area ofthunderstorms• Low overcast ceilings,rain and thunderreported by witnessWX 240º 5KT 2 1/2SM TSRA BKN010 OVC020 23/22A2990 RMK TSB14 OCNL LTGCG TS S MOV E
  • 23. 23ERA09LA39 - Sanderson, FL
  • 24. 24ERA09LA39 - Sanderson, FL
  • 25. 25ERA09LA392 – Sanderson, FLFatal 1
  • 26. 26FAR 91.103 – Preflight ActionFAR 91.103 – Preflight Action
  • 27. 27Safety, better to think about itSafety, better to think about itdown here than worry about itdown here than worry about itup there!up there!
  • 28. 28• Automated Flight Service Station (AFSS)Automated Flight Service Station (AFSS)1-800-WX-BRIEF*1-800-WX-BRIEF*• Direct User Access Terminal ServiceDirect User Access Terminal Service(DUATS)*(DUATS)*• Internet sourcesInternet sources• Private VenderPrivate Vender• * Only recognized official sources* Only recognized official sourcesWeather Briefing SourcesWeather Briefing Sources
  • 29. 29• Adverse weatherAdverse weather• SynopsisSynopsis• Current conditionsCurrent conditions• En route forecastEn route forecast• Destination forecastDestination forecast• Alternate planningAlternate planning• Winds aloftWinds aloft• Notice to AirmenNotice to AirmenAFSS Standard Briefing
  • 30. 30Internet WeatherA picture isworth athousandwords!
  • 31. 31Internet Sources• Official NWS site• Domestic &Internationalproducts• Text & graphicalproductshttp://aviationweather.gov/Note chart – quickindications ofIFR/MVFR/VFR areas,turbulence, and icing
  • 32. 32NWS Internet
  • 33. 33Aviation Weather ServicesAC 00-45GAC 00-45G• Basic reference guide how toread and interpret all NWSweather products.• Listed as required knowledgein FAA Airmen test guides.http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/
  • 34. 34NWS Aviation Weatherhttp://aviationweather.gov/std_brief/
  • 35. 35NWS Surface Analysis
  • 36. 36ThunderstormsSun ‘n’ Fun March 31, 2011Severe Thunderstorm winds of 65KT40 aircraft damaged or destroyed
  • 37. 37
  • 38. 38
  • 39. 39
  • 40. 40NWS Weather Radar
  • 41. 41March 31, 2011LCLLCL
  • 42. 42Weather Watch (AWW)WW 80 TORNADO FL CW 311000Z - 311700Z AXIS..75STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 20NEOCF/OCALA FL/ - 55WSW PBI/WEST PALM BEACH FL/..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /46W OMN - 48NW MIA/HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTIONVECTOR 25040.Discussion..an ongoing Quasi-Linear ComplexDiscussion..an ongoing Quasi-Linear Complexof strong/severe TSTMS including embeddedof strong/severe TSTMS including embeddedsupercells and bow echoes moving eastwardsupercells and bow echoes moving eastwardacross central Florida. Conditions favorable foracross central Florida. Conditions favorable fordamaging winds and a few tornadoes.damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
  • 43. 43
  • 44. 44
  • 45. 45Significant Weather Charts• Pressurecenters• Fronts• Wind flow• Precip type,coverage
  • 46. 46Satellite Imagery
  • 47. 47Convection
  • 48. 48Convective SIGMETs
  • 49. 49NWS Convective Outlook Chart• Convective Outlook (AC) – organizedareas of severe thunderstorms
  • 50. 50Get the Big Picture
  • 51. 51Convective SIGMETs
  • 52. 52
  • 53. 53One finalthought onpreflightplanning!
  • 54. 54• Forecasts are not always perfect!Forecasts are not always perfect!• Weather conditions changeWeather conditions change – is there a– is there afront expected in the vicinity, convectionfront expected in the vicinity, convectionexpected, night or early morning arrival?expected, night or early morning arrival?Get an update!Get an update!• Flight WatchFlight Watch• HIWAS & other weather broadcastsHIWAS & other weather broadcastsIn-flight Briefing
  • 55. 55Weather Update• NWS products are updated atregular intervals– TAFs updated 6-hr, AMD as necessary– Convective SIGMETs – hourly 55– AIRMETs – every 6-hr, AMD– SIGMETs - unscheduled– Weather Watches• PIREPs
  • 56. 56Hazardous Inflight WeatherAdvisory Service (HIWAS)• Selected VORs continuous broadcastof inflight weather advisories within150NM
  • 57. 57En Route Flight Advisory Service(EFAS)• EFAS radio call “Flight Watch”• Available 0600-2200 local• Below FL180 on 122.0 MHz• Discrete frequencies above FL180
  • 58. 58Weather in the Cockpit• Access to updated weather en route• Increased situational awareness• Caution with data lag (NEXRAD)• Spatial resolution of data
  • 59. 59
  • 60. 60 Conditions worst than expected?Conditions worst than expected? Make a command decision – divert,Make a command decision – divert,alter plan, turn backalter plan, turn backWait it out & take a breakWait it out & take a break Consider: frontal position, prevailingConsider: frontal position, prevailingwind, convection, time of daywind, convection, time of dayDon’t push a bad situation!
  • 61. 61ThunderstormsThunderstorms
  • 62. 62Why is the Thunderstorm the mostDangerous Aviation WeatherHazard?The greatest number of aviationThe greatest number of aviationweather hazards are bundled up in oneweather hazards are bundled up in onesingle source, the thunderstorm.single source, the thunderstorm.
  • 63. 63 Squall LineSquall Line TornadoesTornadoes TurbulenceTurbulence IcingIcing HailHail Low ceilings & visibilitiesLow ceilings & visibilities Altimeter errorsAltimeter errors LightningLightning Heavy rain, variable winds & runwayHeavy rain, variable winds & runwaycontaminationcontamination Engine water ingestionEngine water ingestion Wind shear/Wind shear/MicroburstsMicrobursts Radar attenuationRadar attenuationThunderstorm Hazards AC 00-24BThunderstorm Hazards AC 00-24B
  • 64. 64
  • 65. 65
  • 66. 66Gust Fronts Hazards
  • 67. 67
  • 68. 68CEN09FA369Cessna 182, N1826TDougherty, TXJune 18, 2009• VFR cross country• No weather briefing/flightplan filed• Witnesses reportedblowing dust & highgusting winds at the time• Loss of control in flightafter encounteredthunderstorm gust front• Fatal 2KLBB 26037G51KT 3/4SM BLDU SCT030 BKN07024/14 A2990 RMK CB DSNT W-NW
  • 69. 69Accident siteAccident site
  • 70. 70
  • 71. 71
  • 72. 72Thunderstorms• All thunderstorms imply severe andgreater turbulence
  • 73. 73NWS VIP WSR-88D LVLPRECIP MODEdBZRAINFALL0 012<55  to 910 to 14 1 VERY LIGHT34515 to 1920 to 2425 to 29.02 /hr 2LIGHT TO MODERATE6730 to 3435 to 39.09/hr3STRONG8 40 to 44 .48/hr4VERY STRONG9 45 to 49 2.50/hr5INTENSE10 50 to 54 5.70/hr6EXTREME111213141555 to 5960 to 6465 to 6970 to 74     >  7512.0/hr   VIP/DBZ Conversion ChartWeather _AC00-24B• LGT-MOD Turband LTG possible• SVR Turb and LTGpossible• SVR Turb likelyWith LTG• SVR Turb, LTG andGR likely, wind gusts• SVR-EXTRM Turb,LTG, large GR,extensive wind gusts
  • 74. 7430404550556060+2030405050+20AirborneRadarAC 25-11NWSVIP Levels304046505657+18Lvl 1Lvl 2Lvl 3Lvl 4Lvl 5Lvl 6>304046505757+Lvl 1Lvl 2Lvl 3Lvl 4Lvl 5Lvl 6ASR-9IntensityLightModerateHeavyHeavyExtremeExtreme203040455055UnisysDTN WSINN N1015202530354045505560657075NEXRADCockpitDO-26710-30>45-50>50-55>40>30-40>55BoundariesFAARevisedTermsExisting Systems and BoundariesAir Traffic ControlN = National MapI = Individual Site# = Radar Return in dBZ4 levels
  • 75. 75Weather And Radar Processor (WARP)Weather And Radar Processor (WARP)
  • 76. 76NTSB Safety Alert
  • 77. 77• IFR Part 135 flight from McKinney, TX (TKI) to Tampa, FL (TPA)• Equipped with airborne weather radar, StormScope, XM satellite• Weather briefing• Anticipated deviating around weatherERA09FA389Cessna 421C, N4467DGulf of MexicoJuly 8, 2009
  • 78. 78
  • 79. 79Natures sign post in the sky!Natures sign post in the sky!
  • 80. 80“Mr. Eick, may I be excused?My brain is full”
  • 81. 81Questions?Questions?eickd@ntsb.goveickd@ntsb.gov202-314-6384202-314-6384Paul.Suffern@ntsb.govPaul.Suffern@ntsb.gov202-314-6338202-314-6338
  • 82. 82
  • 83. 83
  • 84. 84CEN11FA500Piper Malibu PA-46, N46TWRantoul, ILJuly 24, 2011Encounter with severe weather at takeoff. Fatal 3.
  • 85. 85Rantoul, IL• Pilot obtained internet weather briefing and filed IFR flight plan• Rantoul (KTIP) to Sarasota (KSRQ)• In hurry to beat weather front moving through area
  • 86. 86Surface Analysis
  • 87. 87CEN11FA500 - Rantoul, ILPhoto’s taken by passenger on board accident airplane
  • 88. 88CEN11FA500 - Rantoul, IL
  • 89. 89CEN11FA500 - Rantoul, IL1,163 lightning strikes within 30NM and 15-min of accident