IFPRI- Siwa Msangi


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The presentation was part of the Food Security in India: the Interactions of Climate Change, Economics, Politics and Trade workshop, organized by IFPRI-CUTS on March 11 in New Delhi, India. The project seeks to explore a model for analyzing food security in India through the interactions of climate change, economics, politics and trade.

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IFPRI- Siwa Msangi

  1. 1. The Impact of Climate Change on India’s Agricultural Economy Workshop on Food Security in India (FOODSEC project) NASC complex, Pusa, New Delhi 11 March 2014 Siwa Msangi & colleagues (Environ. & Prodn Tech division, IFPRI)
  2. 2. In this presentation I will:  Discuss some of the key drivers of change in Indian agriculture to 2030 and beyond  Describe the impacts of climate change on India’s agriculture looking at important food sectors  Discuss some implications for livestock productivity  Discuss the relevant “shock absorbers” for Indian agriculture  Describe some possible avenues for adaptation and some policy conclusions Page 2
  3. 3. Page 3 Climate change is part of overall global socio-economic & environmental change  Human and natural systems are closely linked  Much of the environmental change seen in the last few centuries is due to human activity  Therefore the key to modifying the rate of environmental change is to modify human behavior  This is difficult – requires coordination and policy interventions  Climate change has the potential to affect (mostly negatively) human welfare & well-being  Therefore mitigation of future climate change and adaptation to ongoing changes are both
  4. 4. Page 4 Climate outcomes are linked to well-being outcomes  The climate outcomes than affect economic activities and human welfare & well-being
  5. 5. Page 5 Climate change poses a challenge to India’s agricultural sector both now and in future Agriculture is already facing climate stresses (from drought & floods) – even without longer-term changes  Many regions will continue to rely on rainfed agriculture as irrigation expansion is very limited  For some regions – some crops may no longer be possible; while others may become possible The stresses from climate go beyond the farm-field  Has implications for the entire post-harvest chain  Infrastructure also needs to be upgraded to withstand future stresses from floods and heat
  6. 6. Agriculture’s Role in the Economy  Per Capita GDP is increasing, but agriculture’s share of the overall economy has been falling
  7. 7. Page 7 Climate Change Impacts in India (AR4-based results)
  8. 8. Page 8 Uncertainties in climate outcomes  Even for the same socio-economic projection, there are differences in how different climate models will project future changes in climate conditions  Many of the differences come from the way in which models handle important air-land-water interactions and how heat is transferred across these boundaries  The earth system is complex – therefore we expect that there are multiple ways in which the same driver of change will result in future changes
  9. 9. Average temperatures could increase substantially Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007) SRES scenario differences small until after 2050 (but GCM differences big!)
  10. 10. Page 10 The socio-economic scenario ‘family’ underlying climate outcomes Source: IPCC
  11. 11. Changes in annual precipitation between 2000- 2050 Change in precip (mm) CNRM-CM3 GCM CSIRO-MK3 GCM ECHAM5 GCM MIROC3.2
  12. 12. Changes in maximum temperature 2000-50 Change in annual maximum temperature CNRM-CM3 GCM CSIRO-MK3 GCM ECHAM5 GCM MIROC3.2
  13. 13. Grouping of spatial units within India North West North North East East South Central
  14. 14. Production losses/gains for rice
  15. 15. Production losses/gains for wheat
  16. 16. Production losses/gains for maize
  17. 17. Production losses/gains for potato
  18. 18. Production losses/gains for pulses pigeonpea chickpea
  19. 19. Page 19 Capturing the effects on livestock  A lot of attention has been given to crop impacts, but not as much on livestock  There are many crop agronomic models (DSSAT, DNDC, APSIM,CropSyst,EPIC,LPJmL,etc) – but very few biophysical models of livestock productivity (RUMINANT is one example we use)  Need to engage more with animal scientists – need to capture impacts of CC on grassland productivity  Need to capture the differences across livestock production systems (extensive, intensive, mixed) In the past, we haven’t captured the effects of climate on livestock very well – a problem common across studies
  20. 20. Breakdown of livestock production across system classifications Page 20 Share of production across systems in India (% of total prodn) beef pork lamb poultry eggs milk Extensive 6% 0% 8% 0% 0% 1% Mixed crop- livestock 67% 0% 69% 0% 0% 87% intensive 16% 18% 4% 9% 25% 3% other 11% 82% 18% 91% 75% 8%
  21. 21. Productivity impacts for bovines in mixed crop-livestock systems Page 21 loss in liveweight gain due to feed losses distributed across categories
  22. 22. Productivity impacts for bovines in mixed crop-livestock systems Page 22 loss in milk production due to feed losses distributed across categories
  23. 23. Page 23 What are the “shock absorbers” of India’s agricultural economy? So far we have shown the impacts on productivity – but there are some was in which such shocks can be buffered  Storage and ‘banking’ – this can apply to both natural and financial resources • Physical storage can only go one way in time (store now to use later) – but financial banking can go both ways (save for later or borrow against the future)  Exchange mechanisms – especially trade • This can happen in terms of goods or the resources that produce them (i.e. water) – helps to mitigate scarcity over space and improve welfare  Both of these mechanisms need working institutions
  24. 24. Page 24 Illustrating the importance of groundwater  In this experiment, we use the IMPACT model simulate what would happen if the groundwater availability in northern India (Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar) were to decrease dramatically over 2010-2020  Essentially halving the water available for irrigation (since GW supplies ~50% irrigated area)  Simulated over the corresponding IMPACT basins (Indus, Ganges, Mahi-Tapti & Luni basins)  Observe the impact on food production, prices, consumption and malnutrition in India & the world
  25. 25. Ganges Mahi-Tapti Luni Indus Key Indian basins targeted in scenario
  26. 26. Global cereal production changes Page 26
  27. 27. Shifts in global cereal net trade to compensate Page 27
  28. 28. Increases in global cereal prices Page 28
  29. 29. Looking at the demand for water in agriculture Page 29 Derived per-hectare demand for Water in the Kharif and Rabi Seasons for Hivre Bazaar (Rs per unit water per hectare) We fully expect that the demand for water is higher in the drier Rabi season, compared to the Kharif when rainfall is more abundant
  30. 30. Page 30 Water demands in two Maharashtra villages Derived per-hectare demand for Water in the Kharif Season for Hivre Bazaar and Shivni villages (Rs per unit water per hectare) Demand for water is higher in Hivre Bazaar compared to Shivni village, in the Kharif season – largely due to the higher value of agricultural production in Hivre Bazaar
  31. 31. Page 31 Water demands in two Maharashtra villages Derived per-hectare demand for Water in the Rabi Season for Hivre Bazaar and Shivni villages (Rs per unit water per hectare) Water demand is higher during the Rabi season for both Hivre Bazaar and Shivni villages. Demand in Hivre Bazaar is still higher thougth difference with Shivni is smaller
  32. 32. Page 32 Illustrating the gains from trade Where transfers are possible – there could be mutual gains for trade b/w farms or regions Equilibrium w/o TCs Initial point w/o tradeEquilibrium with TCs
  33. 33. Need to think about new institutions (e.g. markets) to deal with climate pressures As is happening in other climate-stressed parts of the world (California, Australia) – need to set up new and innovative arrangements to deal with periodic scarcities  California has set up a ‘drought water bank’ in the past  Australia has had markets for water in Murray-Darling  Dealing with large farms is easier than smaller ones – in the latter case, the govt or village authorities need to help  Need to enable existing institutions to function better  Groundwater is an important buffer – but suffers from open access problems (could community-based GWM work?)  Feed markets for livestock are key (esp high-quality fodder)  Grain storage needs to be handled better (reduce losses) Page 33
  34. 34. A range of adaptation strategies  At crop-production level: • Change varieties or crop species and planting dates • Improve water-use efficiency  For livestock: • Preserve diversity in animal genetic resources • Improve crop residue management (for soil moisture as well as for feeds) • Help farmers to rebuild their stocks quickly after shocks  At resource level • Enhance recharge where possible • Encourage collective action to reduce GW overdraft
  35. 35. Conclusions  Climate change will present a challenge to food security in India through 2050 – despite uncertainty, we know that the results are significant  Climate change will reduce yields in many regions by 5-25% -- although there are gains in some  Need to look at livestock impacts in a better way  Also need to characterize variability – which can be even more challenging to deal with  Besides technological options for climate change adaptation – also need to look at institutional innovations needed to strengthen the “shock absorbers” of India’s agriculture
  36. 36. THANK YOU! See: http://www.ifpri.org/
  37. 37. Page 37 Extra slides
  38. 38. Production losses/gains for coarse grains Sorghum Millet
  39. 39. Production losses/gains for cotton